Tuesday 7/8/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #1

#3 Morrigana	She wasn't embarrassed in a couple starts here last season and may have gotten something useful out of the Thistledown comeback last month. The pace drawn outside is likely to be her biggest problem today, but she's there if she can relax a little during the trip.
#6 Spoken Vow	She's probably a bit more likely than the top choice at a bit shorter price -- she has sharp pace from the attack post out here and could wind up clear in the lane if she shakes free of the top choice.
#1 Funding	Capable team sends this debuter out in what feels like a fairly modest spot for the first try while meeting a bunch of horses who haven't shown a lot of interest in finding the post.
Race Summary	Morrigana may be an OK price in here, and she has some work to do after the comeback run in Ohio. That said, she gets her first local try at this level after last seen here trying stakes company last season.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#4 Ferrari Kid	Taking a bit of a swing with him -- he has inconsistent form and tends to be all or nothing. He's not meeting a whole lot of other potential pace here, so maybe he has a little fun on the front end and never looks back. Cheap, but has a chance.
#6 Adios Buccaneer	He stayed OK when stepping into this kind of spot last out, and he can probably sit a bit closer than he did last time out to keep tabs on the top choice. First jump trip on that guy?
#3 Tempus	He's a super-honest local runner, but he's also very vulnerable to finding a horse or two that can show up a length better than him on any given day. Should be in the frame, but that's a long string of nibbles staring you back from the page. Would need way better than the 7/2 ML price.
Race Summary	Ferrari Kid has some cheap pace that could be dangerous in this spot. His only previous local start saw him taking more pressure early than he figures to here.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#3 Ridge Warrior	He has turned in a couple of acceptable enough races over the local footing, and the class drop gives him a chance to wake up just enough to score today. Interesting at a midrange price.
#7 I'm No Angel	He's up to try winners after getting elevated to the win spot last time out, but this is a spot in which he looks competitive with pretty honest form.
#6 Traveller	Wouldn't argue *too* hard with anyone landing here at something like the 6/1 ML price or better -- his baseline fits, and he has been right there a few times recently, but doesn't it just feel like he'll find at least one of them too good today?
Race Summary	Ridge Warrior fits well here and may have some upside while trying a route over the local footing for the first time. He might like it.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #1

#1 BOLD SPIRIT (8-1)	Romped in lone 1M start, can be excused for comeback try, can rate.
#2 BASSCOAT (3-1)	Joined $100k Club, ideally spotted for repeat, gets plenty of pace to rally into.
#3 MANSFIELD TIGER (5-2)	Finished second in three consecutive routes, two as the favorite.
Race Summary	BOLD SPIRIT worked forwardly for his seasonal debut but lost all chance with a rough start from post 10. He has speed and draws the rail, but he might be better suited to a stalking trip in here. Bet to win and place and play 1-2 and 1-3 exactas.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #3

#6 SUNNY’S FLAME (5-2)	Appears rounding to maiden-breaking win in third start of cycle.
#3 SEASHELLSALLYSELLS (6-1)	‘Improved late’ in fast-paced sprint that produced next-out winner.
#4 SMALL TOWN ACCENT (5-1)	Beaten 3x fave drops, sheds 7 lbs on 29-percent route-to-sprint angle.
Race Summary	SUNNY’S FLAME dueled in an unfamiliar ‘lead’ role and tired in a higher-tagged 6F sprint. She was bumped at the start in her prior start and rallied to finish second to the troubled winner, earning her top speed figure. Bet to win and place and play a 3-4-6 exacta box.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #5

#7 FIREWATER JAKE (8-1)	Finished first or second in 11 of 22 turf races at this distance, price attached.
#12 HOLD YOUR APPLAUSE (4-1)	Solid grass numbers, good fit at this level, post the concern.
#1 BOITANO (6-1)	Rallied 3-wide for minor awards behind repeat winner, should sit good trip from rail.
Race Summary	FIREWATER JAKE disappointed in his last start at Fair Grounds but he is reunited with trainer Genaro Garcia, who coaxed a starter allowance win and two thirds from him last summer on the Horseshoe lawn. Bet to win and place and play a 1-7-12 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie
PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 4	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Claiming $6,250 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $19,800 • Post: 5:54P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250, IF FOR $6,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (COLTS AND GELDINGS PREFERRED)(*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. BILL NEEDLE is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * STORMIN DAVE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CANADIAN AVRO: Horse had a bulle t workout within the last seven days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. COHERENCE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BILL NEEDLE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
5	STORMIN DAVE	8/1	4/1
8	CANADIAN AVRO	4/1	5/1
2	COHERENCE	5/2	7/1
4	BILL NEEDLE	6/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	STORMIN DAVE	5	8/1	Front-runner	88	85	95.8	70.4	66.4
8	CANADIAN AVRO	8	4/1	Front-runner	82	79	76.2	74.6	69.6
4	BILL NEEDLE	4	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	70	51.0	69.6	60.6
3	DEVELOPING THE WAY	3	8/1	Trailer	79	72	47.4	71.1	59.1
2	COHERENCE	2	5/2	Trailer	80	79	45.0	69.6	63.6
6	FAST AND READY	6	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	71	74.2	67.8	59.3
7	FORTY FLASH	7	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	68	60.8	63.8	52.8
1	DEFOGGER	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	72	60.0	65.0	50.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fairmount Park
PURCHASE

Fairmount Park - Race 6	$1.00 Daily Double (Races 6-7) / Exacta .50 Cent Trifecta (Minimum $1.00 Wager) / .50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) .10 Cent Superfecta
Optional Claiming $20,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 3:35P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $20,000 FOR HORSES WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. JUSTICEONEMORETIME is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * GOOD TO BE PRINCE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. VINEGAR HILL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days . Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	GOOD TO BE PRINCE	2/1	3/1
1	VINEGAR HILL	3/1	3/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	VINEGAR HILL	1	3/1	Front-runner	80	82	88.0	67.9	65.4
6	GOOD TO BE PRINCE	6	2/1	Front-runner	82	81	81.6	77.4	73.9
3	JUSTICEONEMORETIME	3	4/1	Trailer	77	60	36.8	57.8	50.3
5	BRAHMS JR.	5	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	62	68.0	57.6	49.1
4	GONNA PICK DOMENIC	4	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	59	58.0	52.6	43.1
2	GUN IT AND RUN IT	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	58	55	47.0	49.6	39.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Parx Racing - Race #10 - Post: 4:47pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#14 YOUBETTERBEJOKING (ML=10/1)
#11 MUSICAL HEART (ML=7/2)
#4 BRINDISI (ML=4/1)


YOUBETTERBEJOKING - Have to like the way Montoya has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. This horse ran out of the money at Parx Racing last out on a muddy track. He should improve right here without the slop. Carrying 5 pounds less this race. Trainer has him in a good spot. MUSICAL HEART - A gelding like this one, almost always in the money, usually makes an excellent trifecta key horse. This mount is a hot commodity. Claimed in his last two races. Is ranked number one in earnings per start (EPS). A strong try in this race can augment the lifetime total. BRINDISI - Don't throw out based on last race finish. He didn't end up on the board, but made a nice move down the lane making up ground. Could be dangerous at a possible price. You have to like that recent race speed rating, 75, which is the best last race speed rating of this bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 GOLDEN WILDCAT (ML=9/2), #1 HARLEY'S CHARLY (ML=9/2), #13 PIT BOSS (ML=6/1),

GOLDEN WILDCAT - Difficult to put your cash on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as regularly as this thoroughbred does. HARLEY'S CHARLY - Tough to keep following this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. PIT BOSS - The Brain cautions me to keep my distance from horses in short distance contests that haven't hit the board in short distance races recently. Hard to bet this one after not being near the lead at 1 mile 70 yards and now being entered in a race of 7 furlongs.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #14 YOUBETTERBEJOKING to win if you can get at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,11,14]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,11,14] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[4,11,14] with [4,11,14] with [2,3,4,11,14] with [2,3,4,11,14] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Allowance - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $32000 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR PA. RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 ADIOS BUCCANEER 7/2
# 3 TEMPUS 7/2
# 5 NIGHT RIDE 6/1

ADIOS BUCCANEER has a competitive shot to take this race. Allen's ROI over the last 30 days automatically makes this animal a sharp contender. Has performed solidly lately in route races, posting a nifty 84 avg Equibase Speed Figure. TEMPUS - He ought to be considered given the very strong speed figures. Must be given a chance given the class of races run recently. NIGHT RIDE - He has formidable class ratings, averaging 89, and has to be considered in this race. Ought to be carefully examined for this event if only for the respectable Equibase Speed Figure put up in the last contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17900 Class Rating: 59

FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 8 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE$7,500.$7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 BEAUTIFUL CHARADE 9/2
# 6 DANCE DRAMA 7/2
# 1 PENNY'S TREASURE 3/1

BEAUTIFUL CHARADE looks to be a competitive contender. She has been running very well recently while recording sharp Equibase Speed Figures. Is hard not to look at given the company run in as of late. Always difficult to beat Hamm and Bowen working together, winning 30 percent of their races. DANCE DRAMA - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group of horses lately. PENNY'S TREASURE - Salazarbecerra ought to be able to get this mare to break out early in here. Very good jock and trainer combo winning 16 percent of their races working together.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mountaineer Park - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $16,500 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#12 SUPERSONIC ME (ML=8/1)
#11 ROCK BULLET (ML=15/1)


SUPERSONIC ME - Finished 2nd, but easily 2nd over the third horse. Those types usually run well next time out. Speed ratings on the grass point to this racer as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance-surface. This animal has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Terraza, and this one could bound home the winner. I can't ignore the fact that this gelding is working extremely well. ROCK BULLET - This jock and handler have a beneficial return on investment when they team up. This gelding is tops in earnings per start. Take a long look at this thoroughbred in the saddling ring.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 PIVOT TO THE POWER (GB) (ML=7/2), #5 BRAVE WORDS (ML=9/2), #7 JUNIOR CHIEF (ML=5/1),

PIVOT TO THE POWER (GB) - This questionable contender hasn't been near the winner at the finish lately. Last effort was too strong. Not too far of a reach to expect a 'performance bounce' today. BRAVE WORDS - Didn't meet expectations as the favorite the last two times. Hard to put any money on this gelding on the top end. Likes to finish in the money though. JUNIOR CHIEF - Don't believe this runner will make an impact in today's race. That last speed figure was quite unimpressive when compared with today's class figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#12 SUPERSONIC ME is going to be the play if we are getting 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [11,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	12 with 11 with [5,8,14] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None