Wednesday 7/9/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeremy Plonk: Colonial Downs Opening Day Wednesday Spot Plays

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July 8, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The 2025 summer meet at Colonial Downs in Virginia gets underway Wednesday with a first post of 12:30 pm ET. With the help of the Betmix Angler database, I flushed out of a couple of potential longshot plays on the 8-race card.

Colonial Downs | Race 4 | 1:57 pm ET
#6 Daniel Sun (12-1 morning line odds) gets a longshot look for low-profile trainer Neil Morris. This barn had a 7-1 winner and 8-1 runner-up opening week of the 2024 Colonial Downs meet from just 2 starters and could get off to another fast start. This 6-year-old has yet to race this year, but note 2 local turf starts in 2022 netted a win and a second. Win-place bet #6.

Colonial Downs | Race 6 | 2:58 pm ET
#4 Incinerator (8-1 morning line odds) gets Victor Carrasco in the saddle and he was the most effective turf sprint jockey at Colonial Downs last year in terms of win percentage and ROI, including 2 local wins aboard this runner in similar spots vs. lesser competition. Recent form was sharp in Maryland for the continued class rise and is well-drawn in post 4. Win-place bet #4.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Happy Valley | July 9, 2025

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July 8, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

We’re back in the Valley for a mid-week card as the end of the season quickly approaches in Hong Kong. Stacked with lower-level races, we’re starting to get some angles from trainers running back quickly before the meet ends and runners finding their form late in the year. Let’s see if we can take advantage of the day and get the bankroll locked and loaded ahead of Saratoga’s opening day this Thursday.

Helpful Resources
Happy Valley – July 9
Past Performances https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conte...tarter_all.pdf
Speed Pro Pace Projections https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/speed...de.html?race=1

Unique Bet Types
SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order

Methodology
Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. New additions have been made to more accurately weight recent runs, and a new pace figure has been introduced to help quickly find horses with a strong pace advantage on the front and back ends of the race.

Race 2 | 1650M | Class 5
Win – 12 BEAU GOSSE
Exacta Key Box – 12 w/ 3,4

Notes: The pace makes the race, as they say, and I think the pace is going to give a shot to a potential price in the second race on Wednesday’s card. There are a few runners who have shown an ability to go forward early, but no clear-cut frontrunners are to be found. With a slow pace, I like 12 BEAU GOSSE (7/1 ML) to be right near a slow lead with enough of a late kick to take over. His Prime Burke Rating (PBR) averages a bit lower than the two more likely winners we’ll key him with in the Exacta (3 COURIER MAGIC (9/5 ML) and 4 WINDICATOR FAMILY (3/1 ML)), but his morning line odds caught my eye.

Race 3 | 1200M | Class 4
Daily Double – 7 w/ 3

Notes: 7 FLOWING RICHES (1/1 ML) has put up two strong starts in his first two career races and looks poised to out-run the field here at Happy Valley. The PBR figures are very much in his favor and his form is clear-cut. With odds reflecting a strong start to his career, I’m looking to a multi-race bet to make the most of his potential. In Race 4 (Class 4 | 1000M) I’m leaning on longshot 3 CRYSTAL POWERFUL (21/1 ML) to beat the on-paper favorites of 1 LEAN MASTER and 10 DAY DAY VICTORY. At his best, CRYSTAL POWERFUL is the fastest horse in the race and cuts back to five furlongs where he is 2-for-3 lifetime. Out of American-bred VICENNALIA (by MORE THAN READY), I like this runner’s sprinting form and think the morning line is too far off.

Race 4 | 1000M | Class 4
Win – 3 CRYSTAL POWERFUL
Exacta Key Box – 3 w/ 1,10

Notes: Continuing our Daily Double analysis, I’ll be keying this longshot in an Exacta with the two most likely winners by the numbers and playing to win. If we can hit this sequence of bets, our week should be made.

Race 5 | 1650M | Class 4
Win – 1 CAPITAL LEGEND

Notes: 1 CAPITAL LEGEND (5/1 ML) has been on a three-race streak that impresses in the PBR figures. What I like the most about this pattern, besides it coming on a varying degree of surface conditions, is that he hasn’t been on a straight rise in ratings. He has shown a flash but put up a steady figure in the other two races. In other words, I’m not putting him in the “three-and-out” camp expecting a big regression. On the other hand, ML favorite 9 SMART CITY (5/2 ML) spiked in his last outing and I expect a regression to his somewhat unimpressive mean. On paper, it’s down to these two, and I like the form and price of top choice CAPITAL LEGEND.

Race 8 | 1800M | Class 2
Quinella Box – 3,4,6,10

Notes: Playing the figures and the odds, I think a handful of runners have a legitimate shot at winning this nine-furlong bout in the Class 2 division. 3 EMBRACES (10/1 ML) and 4 BRAVEHEARTS (8/1 ML) stand out in their recent form, but there’s a lot of potential for a big PBR rating from 6 JUMBO LEGEND (21/1 ML) and 10 WINNING WING (5/1 ML). Let’s fade the 2/1 ML favorite, whose figures don’t stand out against the rest of this field, and hope to get a couple of prices home late on the card.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#2 He's a Mess	The last few running lines might be a bit light for this, including when he finished way behind the rail runner in that October try. That said, he goes for the new team while racing second off the break. Wouldn't be surprised to see him bring something competitive with some sharper back form here.
#1 Grounded	Tough to argue with the recent form on a guy who loves the local footing, and he should get another cozy trip up close from the inside draw.
#3 Bless America	He's another in with a chance here -- he ran well locally last season and caught a nice winner in that last one. Wouldn't argue too hard with you.
Race Summary	He's a Mess looks interesting enough for the new team, and I'm hoping a couple other logical players will help keep the price playable enough.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#7 Venik	Think there are a couple potential red flags here, but he also draws well to flash a bit of pace in a race without much speed signed on. Dropper might have enough to handle these.
#4 Hightail Fox	He fits well enough and won't surprise anyone today, but he has had a lot of chances already and just tends to go a bit flat late in the final yards of his races. Capable, but wouldn't be a shock underneath again.
#2 Starship Legacy	She finished up a bit better at second asking behind a logical winner, and another step in the right direction may be enough to make him competitive here.
Race Summary	Venik is a tough call for me -- think he's supposed to handle these, but he's very tough to trust. Check out the debuters on the tote and track.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#5 Yadi	He might be a touch better with a trip from just a slight bit more off the pace, and I'm hoping he'll get an OK finishing run today while making his third start off the break at an OK price.
#8 Brumba Waffle Toes	He's quite capable while trying this softer group, and I like that he was competitive with a couple tougher crews of late. Could drill these.
#3 Enjoy the Music	Honest type has some tactical pace that should keep him in another good spot into the far turn, and his baseline run makes him a player. Still think he's vulnerable in the final bit.
Race Summary	Yadi went evenly in that last one and now makes his second route start and third overall of this campaign. Couple of those runs from last August would make him one of the ones.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#2 FORMAL AFFAIR (7-2)	Faded in mid-stretch in key dirt route two back, sheds 16 pounds.
#6 LUCKY LUCKY LUKE (6-1)	Also exits strong race, gets pace to rally into for hot barn.
#9 BRAGGADOCIOUS (5-1)	Hit board in 5 of 6 at route races at Tampa this year, starts fresh.
Race Summary	FORMAL AFFAIR’s turf experiment failed, but he returns to the main track in a winning spot. He pressed the pace to mid-turn and gave way in mid-stretch two back, finishing behind Motskari, a next-out $12,500 winner at Charles Town and Admit Nothing, who came back to win by 6 lengths at Penn National. Bet to win and place.

Delaware Park - Race #5

#1 CATATUMBO (7-2)	Steady check-getter has kept good company, can upgrade to a victory.
#3 MAJESTIC TIGER (6-1)	Winless the last two years, second three times recently, claimed by Ness.
#7 LOOKIN AT ROSES (5-2)	Couldn’t reach odds-on winner Golden Juan (13-44, $268k) in latest.
Race Summary	CATATUMBO chased dueling leader and hard-hitting King of Hollywood (14-45, $337k) when third at Monmouth Park on short rest last out. But the proven miler finished ahead of morning-line favorite WALK AWAY JOE and earned the top speed figure of his career. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3-7 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #8

#7 PINOTSLILGIRL (12-1)	Plenty to like at this price in deep starter allowance sprint.
#1 EDGE OF TOWN (9-5)	Won at three sprint distances but streak ‘stopped’ as 7F favorite.
#3 DEVIL PAYS IN GOLD (7-2)	Rallied for a win and three seconds carrying 123 pounds or more.
Race Summary	PINOTSLILGIRL has three wins and two photo-finish setbacks in her last five starts on dirt with an average 72 Beyer. She won at 5F on a muddy track on the barn switch and should work out an ideal trip from just off the pace in her bid to repeat. Bet to win and place and play a 7/1, 3/ALL trifecta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
PURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 8	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum)
Claiming $11,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $18,100 • Post: 4:38P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 9, 2025 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR THREE YEAR OLDS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 9 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $11,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $9,000 2 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. BAYOU MELODY is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BAYOU MELODY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WHO ASK ED YOU: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. EASY PLAY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Hor se has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. POSEIDON'S MIST: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7	BAYOU MELODY	5/1	5/1
3	WHO ASKED YOU	4/1	6/1
2	EASY PLAY	3/1	7/1
1	POSEIDON'S MIST	5/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	EASY PLAY	2	3/1	Front-runner	79	67	88.4	61.4	56.4
3	WHO ASKED YOU	3	4/1	Front-runner	80	79	84.4	67.4	57.9
1	POSEIDON'S MIST	1	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	76	71	72.8	68.6	65.1
7	BAYOU MELODY	7	5/1	Stalker	77	73	62.0	68.0	59.5
6	LUNA LOCA	6	8/1	Trailer	62	66	52.8	63.4	53.4
5	REMOANE	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	47	48.6	49.8	38.3
4	SARATOGA KISSES	4	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	74	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park
PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race 3	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $8,500 • Post: 1:35P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 9, 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES IN 2024 - 2025 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 9, 2025 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SPARE A DIME is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SPARE A DIME: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Hors e ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CAMPAIGN PROMISES: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in aver age Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	SPARE A DIME	2/1	2/1
4	CAMPAIGN PROMISES	8/5	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SPARE A DIME	1	2/1	Front-runner	82	74	70.2	65.2	61.2
4	CAMPAIGN PROMISES	4	8/5	Alternator/Stalker	78	77	60.2	62.4	56.4
2	FLAT DISCOUNT	2	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	77	61	34.8	60.4	55.9
5	DR. BELLA	5	3/1	Trailer	70	63	33.0	64.4	58.4
3	LONG BLACK VEIL	3	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	72	51.2	49.8	40.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Presque Isle Downs - Race #4 - Post: 4:51pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#4 HIGHTAIL FOX (ML=3/1)
#2 STARSHIP LEGACY (ML=4/1)


HIGHTAIL FOX - You always have to be on the patrol for profit making jock/trainer tandems; we have an instance right here. It looks like Bays had to 'know' this gelding on Jun 3rd when riding him for the first time. Back aloft again today. Great chance for this racer. Solid late speed and should have good position. This mount brings in a lot of dough per start. I believe he will boost the lifetime bankroll today. STARSHIP LEGACY - I am keen on that most recent effort on June 30th at Presque Isle Downs where she ended up fourth. That 67 fig this mare earned in her last race tells me she's a major player this time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 VENIK (ML=5/2), #5 YES I'M JESS (ML=4/1), #1 SILAS M P (ML=6/1),

VENIK - Difficult to bet on any thoroughbred to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the risk. In any event of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been sharp in sprint affairs recently. YES I'M JESS - Doesn't appear to have enough positive aspects to justify the value. SILAS M P - Just don't believe he is offering enough value at the likely odds.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #4 HIGHTAIL FOX to win. Have to have odds of at least 2/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Meadows Tulsa

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 4.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7150 Class Rating: 58

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 TAKA 1/1
# 1 GIRLS A LEGACY 2/1
# 2 IZZY'S G 4/1

TAKA looks to be a solid contender. Expect a formidable attempt with the class drop. This racer is prominent in this group of horses in earnings per start at the distance/surface. Seems to have a strong class edge based on the recent company kept. GIRLS A LEGACY - Has run very well when racing a dirt sprint race. Looks quite good to be up near the front end at the first call. IZZY'S G - Reliable average Equibase Speed Figs in dirt sprint races make this horse a solid choice. With Zabala on top her, this mare will most likely be able to break out early for this event.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 7.5f on the Turf. Purse: $19000 Class Rating: 93

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 9 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 BUSTIN UP 4/1
# 8 LUCKY CURLIN 7/2
# 7 TAP EM 5/1

BUSTIN UP has a very good shot to take this race. Has performed very well as of late in sprint races, posting a nifty 94 avg speed figure. LUCKY CURLIN - Have to consider solely on class, with some of the most respectable class figures of this field. Is a strong contender based on figures posted lately under today's conditions. TAP EM - He looks very strong in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 88 - of his last effort.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Thistledown - Race #3 - Post: 1:50pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,900 Class Rating: 44

Rating:

#2 PAULDING FLASH (ML=6/1)
#1 DIXIE'S MEMORY (ML=5/2)


PAULDING FLASH - This gelding is in nice condition, having run a nice race on Jun 22nd, finishing second. The 58 most recent race fig looks mighty good on paper. That recent bullet 36.6 work shows that this gelding is ready for a top effort today. DIXIE'S MEMORY - Got to love a gelding who outruns his odds in his first start. Gelding did just that back on June 21st. It looks like Bracho had to learn about this gelding on Jun 21st when riding him for the initial time. Back on board again today. Horse didn't get the best of trips in his first race. I look for an improvement today. Ranked number 1 in (EPS) earnings per start. Another notice that this horse has the class to win today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 BUMPER STICKER (ML=2/1), #8 I'M LUCKY BUCKY (ML=9/2), #5 CASH COUNTIN (ML=8/1),

BUMPER STICKER - June 3rd is the last time we've seen this gelding around. Have to be a little bit leery. I'M LUCKY BUCKY - Can't play this steed in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a short distance race lately. Hard to take this mount at the odds after the finish position (fourth) in the last event. CASH COUNTIN - Doesn't appear to be in a strong situation this time around.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 PAULDING FLASH to win at post-time odds of 9/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

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