Thursday 7/10/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-10-2025, 07:34 AM

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Narrative - July 10, 2025

July 10, 2025

Jeff Siegel’s Saratoga Narrative
Thursday, July 10, 2025

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga 4: Post: 3:27 ET
Key Rolling Exotic Pick: 4-Heredia (GB)
Degree of Confidence: Good.
Savers: none.

Forecast: Heredia (GB) had may have struck the front a tad too soon and was worn down late when a close third in the Beaugay S.-G3 in her U.S. debut in early May in her first start since Oct., 2023, and paid the price late when third, beaten just a length, in a solid effort. The English-bred mare showed form overseas that makes capable of winning the first division of the De La Rose Stakes, and if she can producer any kind of forward move the G. Motion-trained import can handle this assignment. M. Franco got to know her, stays aboard, and should have her within striking range in the second flight and then have every chance when he pushes the button. The morning line of 3-1 seems about right.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga Race: 6. Post: 4:02 ET
Key Rolling Exotic Pick: 10-Cy Fair
Degree of Confidence: Very good.
Savers: none.

Forecast: Here’s a wide open grass grab bag for juvenile turf sprinting fillies. We’ve zeroed in on Cy Fair, a promising daughter of Not This Time from the G. Weaver barn who has done some good local work – much better than her final times would indicate – while preparing for her racing debut. Purchased post sale for $185,000 at the OBS April Sale, where she previewed in 9 4/5 seconds (the session’s fastest clocking) despite appearing quite green, she clearly has a world of talent and has appeared much more settled and professional since arriving at Saratoga. We’re expecting a huge run first crack out of the box under Johnny V. and plan on making a good gamble at or near her morning line of 8-1.

__________________________________________________ ________
Saratoga 7: Post: 4:35 ET
Key Rolling Exotic Pick: 6-Resurge
Degree of Confidence: Very good.
Savers: 2-Endorse; 5-Lost Horizon.

Forecast: Resurge was given a run in her sprint debut and today should get serious while stretching out to two turns. The daughter of Constitution was off slowly, moved to be within range in heavy traffic midway, angled outside, lacked room and was forced to steady, then finished okay and galloped out well to be a distant fifth behind next out winner Ragtime in a fast, highly rated race. The W. Mott-trained sophomore seems sure to improve a bunch with experience and distance, retains J. Rosario, and should offer good value at or near her morning line of 7/2.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-10-2025, 07:34 AM

Scott Shapiro: Saratoga Thursday Late Pick 4 Hit & Split

July 9, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

The promotions for the Saratoga 2025 meeting will come early and often at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet with different options each week from our wonderful marketing team. Opening week, which kicks off tomorrow, features a Late Pick 4 Hit & Split opportunity every day! Just register on the promotional landing page once, connect on the late Pick 4, and share $1M rewards points.

I will provide analysis for the Opening Day sequence and return with the same on Saturday and Sunday. Let’s hit a couple to kick the big meet off!

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 7:
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5 Lost Horizon; 6 Resurge
Backups: 2 Endorse

Forecast: The race I am looking forward to most on Opening Day is this 9-furlong MSW event for the ladies over the main track. My excitement comes from three second-time starters who stretch out for the first time and exit a 7-furlong MSW event during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival last month. It was Repole Stable’s #2 Endorse that took all the money that day going off a 4-5. The Curlin filly battled early and tired late to finish third, but lost little in defeat since she had to work in the early stages at a challenging first out distance. She has every reason to move forward, but her price will certainly reflect that. From a gambling perspective I much prefer a pair of fillies that failed to hit the board in the aforementioned June 6 race, but should certainly be set for major improvement.

#6 Resurge is yet a another Juddmonte homebred out of the star filly Close Hatches making her a half-sister to Tacticus, Scylla, and Batten Down. She was outsprinted early, but made a middle move before tiring late in her first start. If she can run, a big move forward is likely to come, but I prefer #5 Lost Horizon. The Into Mischief filly is out Chilean-bred Wow Cat. Wow Cat was a monster in her native land and came over to the same barn and put forth a number of strong efforts against graded stakes foes, including a runner-up finish to Monomoy Girl in the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). This Chad Brown trainee ran extremely well first out considering she was wide much of the way on a day at the Spa where the inside was the place to be. Hopefully, she shows more speed on the stretch out. If so, she should be tough to hold off.

Race 8:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1 Ozara; 7 Charlottesapproval; 5 Fun With Flags
Backups: None

Forecast: The first stake race of the summer meeting drew enough interest for the New York Racing Association to split into two divisions. The first heat comes in Race 5.

#4 Movin’ On Up is listed as the heavy 6-5-ML favorite in the second heat after a pair of third place runs over the Churchill Downs lawn this spring. They came against better competition, but the 4YO filly seemed to lack serious energy late in both starts in Louisville. The effort two-back in the Distaff Turf Mile (G2) was a bit more forgivable since she was down on the tiring inside for a good portion of that one-mile journey, but she really fell flat with little excuse in the Mint Julep (G3). I am willing to take her on at a likely short price.

#1 Ozara is my lukewarm top choice. The Miguel Clement trainee was forced to make a wide move into the lane last out in the Eatontown (G3) while the eventual winner had a much better trip up the rail. She won her only start over this course and gets Dylan Davis this time. #7 Charlottesapproval has to prove herself outside of Canada, but has plenty of upside still. She stretches back out to two-turns for Mark Casse after a win off the bench sprinting over the Woodbine lawn. #5 Fun With Flags has not performed well since arriving in the States, but never got to run last out at Monmouth Park. Flavien Prat jumping aboard should lead to a better voyage.

Race 9:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Our Liberty Belle
Backups: None

Forecast: The pace should be honest in this $20k starter at 6-furlongs, which should benefit 3-1-ML favorite #5 Our Liberty Belle. The Florida-bred has been freshened up by trainer Wayne Potts since a pair of solid performances at nice prices going one-mile at Aqueduct. The Tec Racing mare needs to avoid leaving herself with too much to do late, but Potts found a great spot for her return. The 7-time winner is 3 for 5 at the distance and should be rolling late under the bug boy Christopher Elliott.

Race 10:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7 Best Impression; 9 Toxic Girl; 1 Handle On You; 11 Bella Voce
Backups: None

Forecast: I lack a strong opinion in the finale other than being against likely pacesetter #3 Blue Eyed Scout. The daughter of King for a Day was claimed last out by trainer Horacio DePaz out of a similar spot at Aqueduct where she made an easy lead as the 6-5-favorite, but had nothing left in the lane. She has lost three straight at odds of 5-2 or less and is worth fading in a race where several can win if #7 Best Impression does not dominate these on the big class drop for trainer Phil Serpe.

Good luck on Opening Day!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-10-2025, 07:37 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Hawthorne - Race #1

#1 Tum Tap	She turned in a respectable enough effort on debut here last month, and I'm hoping the presence of a couple runners from the Rivelli barn will keep the price playable. Could see her bringing a lot better today.
#6 Biagoddess	Check her out ahead of this one along with her stablemate #2 Prissy -- both go for the powerhouse local barn that has won better than 30% of their similar local races...while turning in a dismal win ROI. Anything from this barn can air. Or stop. Check them out and trust your gut.
#3 Boom Boom Bell	She has several lengths to turn on the top choice from their common debut spot, but that experience at least gives her a little bit of upside here, and the price should be right if you think she's coming forward today.
Race Summary	Tum Tap is probably going to get a similar kind of inside tracking trip while drawing the fence again with a couple of Rivelli firsters drawn wider -- at least one of them is likely to be fast early. Could see her punching home better this time around after angling out.

Hawthorne - Race #2

#4 Night Blue	Honest finisher meets a few of them with some pace today, and I'm hoping another chance in with this kind will help her get over the top.
#2 Marz Eatoats	Don't always love a drop off a good special weight effort, but she was a $35,000 claimer a couple starts back, so it's not unrealistic to think this is just a drop for a win spot.
#6 Mary Moonglow	Tactical type gets on the turf, but I'm a bit concerned about the way she has gone a bit flat in the final yards of all three lifetime races. Dangerous, but I'm not totally convinced, even if there is some appealing upside on the turf today.
Race Summary	Night Blue would benefit if a couple of these battled early on, and I think she's capable of something better than she showed with similar a couple starts back.

Hawthorne - Race #7

#5 Mondogetsbuckets	Not sure he has proven to have the same high ceiling as a couple others in here, but he's the now horse -- he found good form off the bench here in March and things have only gotten better from there. Settles just off the early heat drawn closer to the fence.
#1 Lundberg	He's probably the best of them on paper, but there are a few who want to get the exact same type of trip he does, and that could make things complicated for him from the rail draw.
#8 Cortese	He has pretty honest recent form and has done some good work locally. There's at least some chance the pace all comes back here.
Race Summary	Mondogetsbuckets has some tactical pace, and his ability to shut off a bit should work in his favor in a spot with three or four similar pace/pressing types.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-10-2025, 07:37 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Colonial Downs - Race #4

#6 FROST MOUNTAIN (7-2)	Troubled starts in last pair, class drop should provide winning answer.
#4 SPIRALIZER (5-2)	Entered Ness barn, leveled off in mid-stretch in turf sprint dominated by closers.
#5 GENERAL MAXIMUS (10-1)	Fanned wide from outside post, got up for third, gets needed pace flow.
Race Summary	FROST MOUNTAIN plunges into a winning spot in his first go-round at Colonial Downs. He was bumped at the start and chased runaway winner Pair of Socks (2-7, $80k) at Keeneland two starts ago, then broke slowly and never factored in a rapid-paced sprint on Presque Isle Downs’s all-weather track. Bet to win and place and play 6-4 and 6-5 exactas.

Colonial Downs - Race #5

#2 ARTILLERY GUNNAR (7-2)	Rallied for two 6F wins for higher tags in his last four starts.
#3 GOWOKEGOBROKE (5-1)	Piled up the checks at Tampa, re-claimed two starts back for $16,000.
#1 BERMUDA RUN (3-1)	Beyers of 70-plus in 4 of last 6 starts on dirt translates well today.
Race Summary	ARTILLERY GUNNAR takes on mostly older rivals as the lone three-race winner in the field. He was overmatched in a strong allowance field last out but should prove formidable on the drop below his claim level. Bet to win and place and play a 1-2-3 exacta box.

Colonial Downs - Race #9

#4 LONG GONE SALLY (10-1)	Good first gear, good price, barn on 3-14 run with synthetic-to-turf angle.
#3 CHANTICO (5-2)	Late foot in Improved turf try against recent allowance winner Mendrel (3-5, $84k).
#1 GLORY GLORY (7-2)	Starts anew after $64,000 season as a 2-year-old, lone win was at Colonial.
Race Summary	LONG GONE SALLY led for a half mile in her last four starts on Gulfstream Park’s all-weather track. She broke her maiden with ease but was no match for likes of Wiggle N Wine (4-11, $164k), recent allowance winner Free to Roam ($149k) and a trio of closers in her last start led by Boots To The Moon (13/2-2-4, $75k). Take a longshot stab with a win and place bet on the surface switch.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-10-2025, 07:38 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
PURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 7	Exacta/Trifecta (.50)/Superfecta (.10 min.)/Daily Double (Races 7-8)
Allowance • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $12,500 • Post: 8:51P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * GILLESPIE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. FOLLIES RAVE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. CINCO LA NINA: Horse ranks in the top three in a verage Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
9	GILLESPIE	3/1	6/1
5	FOLLIES RAVE	6/1	6/1
10	TRAININTHEFASTLANE	20/1	7/1
3	CINCO LA NINA	12/1	8/1
6	INTO CELEBRATING	7/2	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	TENTADORRA	1	6/1	Average	75	75	5.6	0.0	0.0
2	PAINT THE TANK	2	15/1	Fast	68	66	3.3	0.0	0.0
3	CINCO LA NINA	3	12/1	Average	77	83	4.9	0.0	0.0
4	FREIGHTTRAIN LEE	4	12/1	Fast	81	68	3.0	0.0	0.0
5	FOLLIES RAVE	5	6/1	Fast	82	78	1.3	0.0	0.0
6	INTO CELEBRATING	6	7/2	Average	79	79	4.7	0.0	0.0
7	CORONA FOR CHAMP	7	5/1	Average	63	67	4.1	0.0	0.0
8	JESSAFREIGHT	8	10/1	Average/Trouble-prone	72	69	4.0	0.0	0.0
9	GILLESPIE	9	3/1	Average	74	84	4.4	0.0	0.0
10	TRAININTHEFASTLANE	10	20/1	Slow	81	81	6.6	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-10-2025, 07:39 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Saratoga
PURCHASE

Saratoga - Race 3	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 3 &4, Pick 3 ($1) (3-5) Mandatory Pay Pick 5 (.50) (3-7)
Claiming $17,500 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $38,000 • Post: 2:18P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $17,500 (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MY TWO SOPHIA'S: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DASHING DELLA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. B AM'S BLISS KISS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. HARLAN'S BOND: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in Trac kMaster Power Rating.
5	MY TWO SOPHIA'S	2/1	5/1
6	DASHING DELLA	6/1	5/1
7	BAM'S BLISS KISS	3/1	5/1
4	HARLAN'S BOND	8/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	BAM'S BLISS KISS	7	3/1	Front-runner	78	75	94.2	62.2	57.2
6	DASHING DELLA	6	6/1	Front-runner	85	79	72.2	71.4	64.4
3	FIVE TO TWO	3	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	79	76	72.0	69.0	58.5
5	MY TWO SOPHIA'S	5	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	75	60.0	74.0	69.5
4	HARLAN'S BOND	4	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	77	71	46.2	73.6	67.1
2	BOOK OF WISDOM	2	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	73	56.8	69.8	61.3
1	SANTAGATA	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	71	53.4	48.2	35.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-10-2025, 07:39 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Cross Country Pick Four

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Stakes - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $135000 Class Rating: 105

DE LA ROSE S. SAR - R8 - INNER TURF FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A GRADED SWEEPSTAKES IN 2024-25.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 MOVIN' ON UP 6/5
# 2 DO GOODER 12/1
# 1 OZARA (IRE) 7/2

MOVIN' ON UP looks to be a respectable contender. Ought to be given consideration in this contest if only for the competitive Equibase Speed Fig put up in the last contest. With a nice class rating average of 99, has one of the best class advantages in this group of animals. Has run solidly when moving a turf route race. DO GOODER - Will most likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the midpoint of the race. Has been racing solidly in races of this distance, going 2 for 5 under similar conditions. OZARA (IRE) - Demonstrates the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 96 speed rating which is one of the most respectable in this group of horses. With a formidable 96 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-10-2025, 07:39 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:30pm - SO - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#3 ROCKINGHAM JOE (ML=8/1)
#5 GREAT QUALITY (ML=5/2)
#2 FEAR NOTHING (ML=6/1)

ROCKINGHAM JOE - Last race at Delaware Park on Jun 6th was a big class drop for this horse. Facing similar foes in this race. He should do well this time out. Hernandez and Downing perform well when they combine forces. It's hard to beat a +910 ROI for a rider and handler. This affair sets up for this gelding. I call this the 'Lone Stalker' scenario. When the real running starts, he'll be in perfect striking position. Forgive the out of the top three finish on the off track last time out. Under normal track conditions, has a good chance right here. That 85 fig this gelding garnered in his last race tells me he's a key player today. GREAT QUALITY - You probably should overlook that last event at Delaware Park on a sloppy track where he finished out of the money. Should do well in this race without the off-track conditions. Lopez and Capuano partnered up are a horseplayer's friend. FEAR NOTHING - Have to give this gelding a shot. Ran a nice race last time out within the last month. Gelding has shown some early speed. This shorter distance should be better for him. Recent Equibase speed figs show solid pattern of improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 LEX (ML=9/5), #1 BLO BY'EM (ML=7/2), #6 SQUARE SLICE (ML=8/1),

LEX - June 14th is the last time we've seen this gelding around. Have to be a little bit leery. BLO BY'EM - Finished second in his most recent race with a common speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field. SQUARE SLICE - The sixth place finish position in the last race was not that great.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 ROCKINGHAM JOE is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-10-2025, 07:39 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #4 - Post: 7:12pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $34,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating:

#3 CROSSING GUARD (ML=7/2)
#5 PADDY'SHEARTOFGOLD (ML=8/1)

CROSSING GUARD - Sinnefia brings her right back. I advocate you stick with this live filly. This filly should be in fine condition, this far into her form cycle. PADDY'SHEARTOFGOLD - With no PPs, one of the variables I look at are trainer stats, and Stites has a +135 pct ROI rate with first timers. I like this first-timer mainly because her morning works for this have been here at Penn National. Stites is giving this one Lasix for the first time. Nice move.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MUSIC CLARIFCATION (ML=9/5), #6 SHE'S JUSTIFIED (ML=5/2), #2 HOLY HIPPIE (ML=5/1),

MUSIC CLARIFCATION - The morning-line favorite is vulnerable here with the lack of morning drills. SHE'S JUSTIFIED - This filly hasn't had any positive outcomes in sprint affairs in the last two months. This racer didn't go to the lead and didn't close ground down the lane last time she ran. HOLY HIPPIE - I foresee a setback for this animal in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 CROSSING GUARD is the play if we get odds of 8/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-10-2025, 07:40 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Colonial Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Allowance - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $72000 Class Rating: 91

INNER TURF FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, VA RESTRICTED, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE MAY 10 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $25,000 OR LESS

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 11 SMALL FIELD 15/1
# 9 MISTER ABARRIO 9/2
# 1 DIVINO 3/1

My selection in this contest is SMALL FIELD and the potential return justifies the unsafe nature of the long odds. Recent numbers for the jock - 23 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this field. I like Machado on this gelding to give him a quite good chance to hit the wire first. Could wake up with Lasix change (on Lasix) today. MISTER ABARRIO - Is difficult not to look at based on Speed Figures which have been very good - 90 avg - of late. A nice ROI of +3 with this jockey and handler duo. DIVINO - Arrieta will probably be able to get this gelding to break out early in this contest. Looks strong for the conditions of this race today, showing solid figs in turf route races as of late.

Thursday 7/10/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 7/10/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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