Friday 7/11/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-11-2025, 06:39 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 11, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

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Yonkers Raceway has an 11-race card. The $2.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 8, and the sequence will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8 (9:05 PM EDT)

3-Take Your Pick (8/5)-Yonkers record is 1-3, and in the last 3 starts on the Hilltop beat similar, then was in against Invites which were too tough. Ships in from Philly looking for a win and this is a good spot. Does good work getting on the engine and not looking back. Has an edge on others with this post draw and could have the best gate speed of the group. Jason Bartlett gets the assignment. He has connected a couple of times for wins in the spring at M1 with the Cullipher trainee. When this driver-trainer tandem teams up they post 40% winners.

Race 9 (9:25 PM EDT)

6-Aardie B Miki N (3/2)-Came off the bench on fire winning the 4 legs it raced in and then captured the Borgata Final. Since then, form has been so-so in the last 3 starts but raced against some very tough foes at Philly, Wbsb and M1. Now returns to Yonkers where it has made about 70% of its lifetime earnings. Shouldn't be denied unless the trip is very bumpy. But Bartlett is between the pipes and faces only 5 challengers.

Race 10 (9:45 PM EDT)

2-Themaskedcrusadr N (3-1)-Willing to take a swing with a horse making only its 5th lifetime start all coming this year. Drew the 9-hole 3 times in 4 races at Mohawk and put in a decent qualifier after a sick scratch up North on 5-26. Did trot the back half in 56.2 in the 7-4 tune up at Yonkers and will look for a big try against a suspect group.

Race 11 (10:05 PM EDT)

5-Tachyon (8-1)-Using prices in this leg, not liking the chalks (3-4) at small prices. Dan Dube should have this recent winner at this class forwardly placed. If lands in a close-up seat, a pocket ride isn't out of reach, and good things could follow at a big price.
7-Unevergonnagethis (6-1)-Shipped to Philly and picked up a win against easier and now faces a beatable field. Actually, faces easier than the last time on this surface. This race could shape up for a stalker to roll by as the fractions should be spicy. Jordan Stratton steers for the Cullipher barn and this combo posts 23% winners when working together.

$5 Late Pick 4

3/6/2/5,7
Total Bet=$20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-11-2025, 06:39 AM

Colonial Downs Pick 3 Friday, July 11

July 11, 2025 | By Frank Carulli

COLONIAL DOWNS PICK 3
Friday, July 11, 2025

Rain could dampen opening week at Colonial Downs’ Summer Meet in New Kent, VA, with dozens of turf races scheduled. The advance weather forecast calls for a 55 to 75 percent chance of precipitation all week. We’ll look to an early Pick 3 on the Friday, July 11 card, with two of the races on the main track and a 10-horse maiden sprint to cap the sequence.

CNL 2nd race (4:30 p.m. EST) -- MAX CAPACITY’s debut bullet workout May 30 at Laurel Park was a full second faster than all but three others who breezed 4F that day. The $38,000 sales buy has kept busy since then for trainer Richard Sillaman, who has won with 6 of his last 18 starters at various venues. OUR DAY WILL COME also shows a flashy work tab at Laurel for Phillip Capuano, who is 7-for-38 with a positive R.O.I and 48-percent in the money with first-time starters in his first three years as a trainer. The horse’s dam, Defoe Street, was 3-for-7 on an off track. HUTCHINSON prepped at Keeneland for his first start and hopes to follow the lead of his sire, Tiz The Law, a multiple Grade 1 winner and Top 20 freshman sire this year and his dam, Angie Grand, a debut Maiden Special Weight winner at Parx. MORE THAN CUTE ran a deceptively good 4-1/2F race with Lasix on a sloppy track at Evangeline Downs and is worth using at 30-1 in a field with seven first-time starters. He was bumped inward at the break, fanned 6-wide at the top of the stretch as he gathered momentum and galloped out ahead of the runaway winner.

CNL 3rd race (5:00 p.m. EST) -- SCHRADER, a generous 12-1 on the morning line, hit peak form before a troubled trip last out. He won by 8 lengths in a ‘double key’ $40,000 claiming sprint at today’s distance three starts ago. Then he survived a front-end duel in allowance company, but ‘wandered’ in mid-stretch and finished second between a next-out allowance winner and runner-up who posted 82 and 81 Beyer speed figures, respectively. EASTBOSTONBENNY is a new horse of late, carrying his speed to back-to-back scores after a year-long winless drought. His uncoupled stablemate, VILLAGE PERSON, overcame fractious gate behavior and rallied to win in his debut at the Colonial Downs Spring Meet. CRAB DADDY, stakes-placed as 2-year-old, finished 5-1/2 lengths ahead of SCHRADER to finish second in an allowance race and projects an ideal stalking trip from post 9.

CNL 4th race (5:40 p.m. EST) -- CAPTAIN EDDIE seeks a duplicate of his first start on the turf. He shook a duel at the quarter pole and drew clear, only to get caught by Turbulent Force, who went wire-to-wire in a follow-up $75,000 optional claiming sprint. TRANSACTIONAL GUY, squeezed back to 10th in a well-bet debut, found his best stride in the 6-path in mid-stretch and is sure to draw a lot of attention for Team Russell. AMERICAN LITIGATOR showed some ability sprinting to start his career, returns to a sprint with blinkers back on and looms a longshot possibility. His dam, Laughing Falcon, capped a 3-for-3 start to her career with a stakes win on the grass. SAMDINI arrives off a recent bullet workout on Turfway Park’s all-weather track for trainer Ethan West, who won with 3 of his last 6 first-time starters at odds of 7-1, 13-1 and 24-1.

Suggested $1 Pick 3
CNL 2nd Race: 1, 4, 6, 8
CNL 3rd Race: 3, 6, 9
CNL 4th Race: 2, 4, 8, 10
Cost: $48

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-11-2025, 06:41 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Woodbine - Race #1

#7 Aim Don't Miss	Nothing big to write home about on the page right now, but there are a couple of tries that at least keep him in the frame while coming off a run that isn't far off what'd it take to land this.
#5 Night Striker	The baseline good stuff would handle this crew, but he's out of excuses after this many starts and is tough to trust as what is likely to be one of the favorites.
#4 Lasting Silence	He's got a chance in here with his best, and he has spent a lot of time trying better company than he's meeting here. Third start off the bench produces something better? I don't know -- a lot of questions for me at what might not be an appealing price.
Race Summary	Aim Don't Miss might be a bit better than the last run suggests, and the price should be right in a spot where the likely chalks are not super trustworthy.

Woodbine - Race #4

#5 Feels Like A Kylla	Only brief pace from him last time out, but I wonder if there might be enough upside to take a chance given what should be a big price on the board.
#8 Castle Harbour	Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone taking a stand with this guy in what feels like a light race even for this level. Something like his last should do the trick.
#7 Blondina's Boy	Last couple would make sense here, but there are a lot of kind of mild starts on his page, and it wouldn't be a shock to see him settle underneath again today.
Race Summary	Feels Like a Kylla hasn't shown much yet, but he's got a little potential pace in a race without a ton of early speed. Could be good for a thrill into the turn at a price.

Woodbine - Race #5

#1 Armino	I think the form this year is OK enough, and he could be sitting on a good one in the third race off the break. He's probably a little cheap, but I'm hoping the price will be fair enough to give him a look in a modest race.
#3 Stratus	Suppose he's one of the ones in here, but it's easy to picture him strolling along a little too late to land top honors while still grabbing a share. He could beat me, but you can have him.
#6 Shinigami	Don't trust him a whole lot, but a few of the better tries on his page could make him a handful here if he can get back to one of them. Price may not be worth it.
Race Summary	Armino would have some appeal to me at something a bit shorter than the 15/1 ML price, even on the rise out of a cheaper spot. Could see him getting the best of this crew with a great trip right near the top waiting for him in a spot without any real early burn.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-11-2025, 06:41 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Penn National - Race #3

#8 SAKETUMI (8-1)	Can stalk soft pace from up close and upset at tempting price in third start of cycle.
#4 BODECREAM (7-2)	Likely target with alert start, but $500k earner has been burning money.
#2 CURLINGTON (5-1)	Second to next-out repeater two back, unwound too late as the fave in latest.
Race Summary	In a field void of quality speed, SAKETUMI is a viable longshot after he chased multiple stakes winner Fierce and Strong through a 6F split in 1:09-1/5 before fading in a long-distance turf stakes race. In his longest race the last two years, he was in range of Starship Empire (11-37, $188k) for the stretch run of a 1-1/8-mile route, the same Starship Empire who won two $10,000 claimers at Presque Isle Downs last month. Bet to win and place and play an 8-ALL exacta.

Penn National - Race #5

#1 FAST FREEZE KAZ (8-1)	Tries to carry speed for new connections, :35 work encouraging.
#5 DON’T LOSEMYMONEY (7-	Claimed for this spot, game runner-up in three straight.
#3 LAFITTE’S FLEET (6-1)	Low-50 Beyer type can land a share despite only second start in five months.
Race Summary	FAST FREEZE KAZ took the class plunge to this level, faded badly to finish last and was claimed. But he has done his best running on a clear lead that he should have from the rail. The price is right for a win and place bet. Also play 1-5 and 5-5 daily doubles.

Penn National - Race #6

#5 TUSKEGEE AIRMEN (4-1)	Well-prepped for another seasonal debut off layoff, this time in Ness barn.
#3 SUNNY BREEZE (2-1)	Grade 2-placed at 3, just missed after long duel in latest, third start of cycle.
#4 SHERIFF RONNIE (9-2)	Earned nearly half of $318k bankroll at 6F and also projects ideal trip.
Race Summary	TUSKEGEE AIRMEN takes aim at $200k in earnings in his first start for Ness after seven months away. His workouts indicate readiness and he should get plenty of pace to rally into despite the short field. Bet to win and place and play 5-3 and 5-4 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-11-2025, 06:42 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Pocatello Downs
PURCHASE

Pocatello Downs - Race 5	$2 WPS / $2 Second Half Mid Daily Double $2 Exacta / $2 Quinella / $2 Trifecta ($1 Box) $1 Superfecta / Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Allowance • 250 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 71 • Purse: $3,750 • Post: 7:00P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS & OLDER WITH A SPEED INDEX OF 89 & UNDER. OPEN TO MIXED BREED. WTS: 126 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * CHURCH APPEAL: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rat ing. MA PISTOL MAN: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. LC IONA CARTEL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Sp eed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	CHURCH APPEAL	4/1	4/1
4	MA PISTOL MAN	2/1	5/1
5	LC IONA CARTEL	3/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	MZ CARTEL	1	5/1	Slow	70	50	8.3	0.0	0.0
2	PARAMOUNT	2	7/1	Slow	59	9	7.0	0.0	0.0
3	CHURCH APPEAL	3	4/1	Fast	73	64	1.5	0.0	0.0
4	MA PISTOL MAN	4	2/1	Slow	71	66	8.0	0.0	0.0
5	LC IONA CARTEL	5	3/1	Slow	69	64	8.4	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-11-2025, 06:42 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ruidoso Downs
PURCHASE

Ruidoso Downs - Race 5	Exacta / Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / 3rd Leg Pick 3 / 4th Leg Pick 4 1st Leg .50 Pick 3
Allowance • 400 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $31,000 • Post: 2:44P
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * LEFTIE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ROWDY MOON: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. HS DANGER WEAPON: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SUSPICIOUS JESS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. UNO MAMMA SAY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	LEFTIE	10/1	5/1
7	ROWDY MOON	9/2	6/1
10	HS DANGER WEAPON	30/1	7/1
11	SUSPICIOUS JESS	10/1	9/1
12	UNO MAMMA SAY	6/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	POLITICAL MYSTERY	1	20/1	Average	80	71	4.6	0.0	0.0
2	A KINGS DYNASTY	2	20/1	Fast	70	65	3.4	0.0	0.0
3	LEFTIE	3	10/1	Average	81	87	6.0	0.0	0.0
4	MAKA KIA	4	15/1	Average	79	69	4.3	0.0	0.0
5	GRS STREAK OF TF	5	5/2	Fast	74	70	1.6	0.0	0.0
6	LUCKY JOE CHIME	6	7/2	Average	66	63	4.4	0.0	0.0
7	ROWDY MOON	7	9/2	Average	81	77	5.2	0.0	0.0
8	COCOMO MOON	8	30/1	Slow	0	0	7.0	0.0	0.0
9	MOONSPIRACY	9	30/1	Average	73	72	4.9	0.0	0.0
10	HS DANGER WEAPON	10	30/1	Average	83	79	5.5	0.0	0.0
11	SUSPICIOUS JESS	11	10/1	Average	79	74	3.6	0.0	0.0
12	UNO MAMMA SAY	12	6/1	Average	81	75	4.4	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-11-2025, 06:42 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Allowance - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $29800 Class Rating: 84

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF THREE RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 11 ALLOWED 4 LBS. W V A RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 BELLA MELA 8/5
# 7 PETTY PERFECT 2/1
# 3 CORRI FELICE 10/1

My pick in this contest is BELLA MELA. Displays the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 81 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the most respectable in this group of horses in this race. Contreras has a strong 18 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Will probably be one of the leaders of the bunch going into the halfway point of the competition. PETTY PERFECT - Has to be considered a contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. This filly has posted some nice finishes in her last few efforts.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-11-2025, 06:43 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Wyoming Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Trial - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 60

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS ACCREDITED WYOMING BREDS. WEIGHT . 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 FLY THE FLAG 5/2
# 8 TELL CARTER 4/1
# 4 GIT R DONE JR 3/1

FLY THE FLAG looks to be a very good contender. Will likely be one of the front-runners of the bunch going into the halfway point of the contest. He has been running solidly and the Equibase Speed Figs are among the best in this group of horses in this race. The average class fig alone makes this horse a key contender. GIT R DONE JR - Valenzuela and Valenzuela have won 23 percent of their races giving this pony a very good chance. Valenzuela has a sharp win percentage with horses moving in short races.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-11-2025, 06:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race #3 - Post: 1:34pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#13 WAMPANOAG CHIEF (ML=6/1)
#5 SO GRAND (ML=6/1)
#3 MINISTER (ML=8/1)

WAMPANOAG CHIEF - Speed ratings on the turf point to this thoroughbred as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance/surface. Just missed hitting the board on June 8th at Gulfstream Park. With pretty good morning line odds right here, he has my interest. The 72 last race fig looks good in black and white. SO GRAND - Likes to go to the lead and the fact that today is a shorter trip should help. MINISTER - Coming off a fifth place finish at Pimlico, some may skip over this horse. I'm not. He just missed hitting the show spot, and has decent morning line odds today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 LOOKIN LIKE LUCKY (ML=2/1), #1 QUAHOG REPUBLIC (ML=7/2), #10 MOONLIT FROST (ML=9/2),

LOOKIN LIKE LUCKY - This racer hasn't been coming close at the wire of late. Pace is so influential, and this speedy one is going to have an early speed duel on his hands. QUAHOG REPUBLIC - Tough to go with this racer at 5 furlongs after not showing zip at 1 mile 70 yards. Didn't end up on the board on June 5th at Delaware Park. Followed it up with another lackluster effort. MOONLIT FROST - When looking at today's class figure, he will have to record a better fig than last time around the track to compete in this turf sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#13 WAMPANOAG CHIEF is the play if we get odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	13 with [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5,13] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-11-2025, 06:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Emerald Downs - Race #2 - Post: 7:26pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#5 KLINKERBRICK (ML=3/1)
#2 GET DOWN (ML=10/1)

KLINKERBRICK - This gelding is in fine condition, having run a nice race on Jun 14th, finishing third. Stalking speed. My partners and I like this one. Gelding is a few starts into a return here. Should give a nice effort today. This gelding's last speed rating earned on Jun 14th is at the top in last race speed figs. GET DOWN - This gelding is in fine physical condition, having run a good race on June 15th, finishing second. Don't often see a profitable return on investment like +38. This jockey/trainer duo has done well together over the last year. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run his best in the 3rd or 4th start back. Look at this pattern of improvement. 47/58/66 are the last three Equibase speed figures.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 TIZ GRAZEN (ML=5/2), #4 CALMCOOLNCOLLECTED (ML=9/2), #8 SUMMERS CHOICE (ML=5/1),

TIZ GRAZEN - I think this favorite needs this race under his belt to start getting back into shape. Run-of-the-mill speed figure in the last race at Emerald Downs at 6 1/2 furlongs. Don't feel this mount will improve too much in today's event. CALMCOOLNCOLLECTED - Didn't end up on the board on May 18th at Emerald Downs. Followed it up with another lackluster try. SUMMERS CHOICE - Just don't think he is worth it at the likely odds.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - KLINKERBRICK - This horse looks good with such a big gap in the spread of the TM Power Rating between him and the second-rated horse.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #5 KLINKERBRICK to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass