Wednesday 7/16/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NCAA-Basketball

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Happy Valley | July 16, 2025

---

July 15, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

The day has finally come for the season to wrap up in Hong Kong before taking a brief hiatus. As sad of a day as it may be for those of us losing sleep over racing on the other side of the world, we have one more card to tackle and one more chance to make our stacks a little fatter. Let’s see what we can find!

Helpful Resources

Happy Valley – July 16

Past Performances https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conte...tarter_all.pdf
Speed Pro Pace Projections https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/speed...de.html?race=1

Unique Bet Types

SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. New additions have been made to more accurately weight recent runs, and a new pace figure has been introduced to help quickly find horses with a strong pace advantage on the front and back ends of the race.

Race 1 | 1200M | Class 5
Win – 9 YOU’REMYEVERYTHING
Exacta Key Box – 9 w/ 3,5,11

Notes: At 27/1, 9 YOU’REMYEVERYTHING looks like a value grab to me. His Prime Burke Ratings are close to the best in this field, and from a raw speed perspective he’s about as fast as anyone in the field. In his last trip, he was boxed in with 200 meters to go and had to find room three lanes from the rail. He ran out of track, but with a better trip I think he could be one of the better closers on paper. He’s running back after just a week, which gives me a bit of pause, but the price is too juicy to ignore.

Race 2 | 1200M | Class 4
Win – 2 THUNDER PRINCE
Exacta – 2 w/ 8

Notes: 2 THUNDER PRINCE is picking up Hong Kong’s top mount in Zac Purton, who is 10-for-47 and in the money in 22 of those starts for trainer Chris So Wai-yin. His late-race dash is exceptional, and I think this is the race where this four-year-old finally puts it together in the Class 4 ranks. With Purton in the irons, I expect this gelding to take some money, but 8 FLYING WROTE is right there in the next tier of PBR ratings to round out a cold 1-2 punch.

Race 5 | 1200M | Class 4
Win – 4 TACTICAL COMMAND
Exacta – 4 w/ 1

Notes: Picture this with me. 1 DANCING CLASSICS goes to the front from the tenth post. From inside, he’s got company from 6 BITS SUPERSTAR, 7 HONEST WITNESS, and 12 CIRCUIT VICTORY. Sure, DANCING CLASSICS is the best of this bunch but settled inside behind this pack is 4 TACTICAL COMMAND waiting for his window to open. 200 meters to go, the front runners start to drop, and our top choice emerges. Nailed at the wire, down goes the heavy favorite. Anyway, I’m gonna bet 4 TACTICAL COMMAND at anything close to 5/1 or better.

Race 8 | 1200M | Class 4
Quinella Box – 5,6,11

Notes: Our routine numbers play is back again for the penultimate race of the Hong Kong season. I have two horses rated higher than these three in the PBR table, those being 2 RAGING BLIZZARD and 12 STORM RIDER. However, we’re only going six furlongs, and my two top-rated choices are likely to be far off the pace. That would be helpful if there was a blazing speed expected, but I think this one plays fairly and sets up some combination of our three Quinella choices to take over late from just off the pace.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

---

Colonial Downs - Race #1

#8 ON A PROUD NOTE (5-1)	First or second in 3 of last 4 starts, safe play in field loaded with questions.
#3 COUNTRYCLUB COUPLE (5-2)	Worked forwardly for troubled return, drops from $40,000 level.
#4 MOONSHINING (20-1)	Showed a pulse at Gulfstream last out at 67-1 odds, usable in gimmicks.
Race Summary	ON A PROUD NOTE is a viable option against two class-plunging favorites. The lone 3-year-old in the field is honest, consistent and should sit a decent stalking trip from the outside if several trouble lines at the break don’t resurface. Bet to win and place and play a 3,8/3,8/3,4,5,8 trifecta.

Colonial Downs - Race #3

#11 NOBLE JON (5-1)	Good turf record, better trip expected in third start of cycle, Best Bet of the day.
#10 RETAINED (12-1)	Could be the target for ‘Jon,’ could stick around a long time at big odds.
#1 UPSIDE DOWN MAN (8-1)	Rallied for back-to-back 5-1/2F wins on Laurel lawn at this level.
Race Summary	NOBLE JON holds a decided tactical advantage in a turf sprint surprisingly void of speed. He should have no trouble getting forward position from post 11 and needs only to duplicate the top speed figure of his career for a repeat victory. Great bet at anywhere near his 5-1 morning-line price. Bet to win and place, play 11-1 and 11-10 exactas and play an 11/ALL/6, 7 Pick 3.

Colonial Downs - Race #5

#7 AUGUSTA MELODY (2-1)	Can be excused for latest, travels well, gets the nod in deep field.
#6 UNCAPTURED WARRIOR (5-2)	Gulfstream shipper romped off layoff, steps up for 24-percent ‘repeat’ barn.
#3 RADICAL RIGHT (9-2)	$350K 6F bankroll, last three winners he met are combined 20-70 with $900k.
Race Summary	AUGUSTA MELODY’S bid for three wins in a row for Team Russell was foiled by a terrible start. But he remains in top form and tries to add Colonial Downs as the seventh track at which he has won. Bet to win and place and play 7-3, 7-4 and 7-6 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Retama Park
PURCHASE

Retama Park - Race 10	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Super High 5 (.10 Cent Minimum)
Allowance • 250 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $18,100 • Post: 10:18
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * RIOS DASHING SPIRIT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. THE FAMOUS OTOOLE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position nex t to it gets out of the gate fast. SHELBY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MAD INDIAN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. JESS LOUISIANA GIRL: Quarter horse has the high est last race Equibase Speed Rating.
6	RIOS DASHING SPIRIT	10/1	5/1
5	THE FAMOUS OTOOLE	12/1	7/1
4	SHELBY	15/1	7/1
2	MAD INDIAN	5/2	8/1
8	JESS LOUISIANA GIRL	4/1	10/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	THIS CHICS A ZOOMER	1	8/1	Average	79	80	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	MAD INDIAN	2	5/2	Average	83	77	3.6	0.0	0.0
3	KARTENDO FAST DASH	3	5/1	Average	82	72	3.8	0.0	0.0
4	SHELBY	4	15/1	Average	87	79	3.8	0.0	0.0
5	THE FAMOUS OTOOLE	5	12/1	Fast	81	81	2.8	0.0	0.0
6	RIOS DASHING SPIRIT	6	10/1	Average	86	89	4.0	0.0	0.0
7	TEMPTING GRAND GL	7	6/1	Average	83	76	3.9	0.0	0.0
8	JESS LOUISIANA GIRL	8	4/1	Average	80	76	3.8	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes
PURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 3	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 3-4) * PICK 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 3-4-5) * PICK 4 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 3-4-5-6)
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $27,300 • Post: 2:13P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 16 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SKYLER'S STARSHIP: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (d irt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. STARS N STONES: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. STORMIN SAMM Y: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. PUCKISH: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	SKYLER'S STARSHIP	2/1	4/1
4	STARS N STONES	7/2	5/1
3	STORMIN SAMMY	3/1	6/1
5	PUCKISH	4/1	8/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	SKYLER'S STARSHIP	2	2/1	Front-runner	83	82	78.5	78.5	74.5
3	STORMIN SAMMY	3	3/1	Front-runner	86	84	77.8	75.6	69.6
4	STARS N STONES	4	7/2	Front-runner	83	80	62.8	80.8	75.8
5	PUCKISH	5	4/1	Stalker	83	82	64.0	75.4	68.4
1	MORE VINO	1	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	78	53.6	68.6	61.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delaware Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 3 - SO - 8.3f on the Turf. Purse: $29000 Class Rating: 90

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $12,500 OR LESS IN 2023 - 2025 OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 - $16,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 16, 2025 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE MAY 16, 2025 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 PRINCESS JAVONCIA 9/2
# 6 TIKI BAR 8/1
# 7 KRONE 12/1

PRINCESS JAVONCIA could be the bet in here. Has to be considered here on the basis of the figs in the speed realm alone. She has a formidable distance/surface win record - 7 out of 23. Sound average Equibase Speed Figures in turf route races make this animal a solid contender. TIKI BAR - Will most likely come out strong - I have liked the way this mare has moved quickly to the front end recently. This one has been constatntly running well as of late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mountaineer Park - Race #2 - Post: 7:25pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#9 GHOSTLYPRINCE (ML=6/1)
#6 SIR MAXIMUS (ML=7/2)
#12 JUBA'S NOTION (ML=8/1)


GHOSTLYPRINCE - I expect a lot from this thoroughbred. His speed figures under similar conditions are tops in this group. Last time he ran at this distance he notched a figure good enough to win today's affair. SIR MAXIMUS - Got to like a equine athlete who can make up a ton of ground in the stretch. This gelding came flying late sprinting last time out and should relish the longer distance of today's race. JUBA'S NOTION - Looking at today's class rating, this campaigner is up against an easier field than in the last race at Charles Town. He got a decent speed rating the last time he tried this distance. The racer with the top average class rating in turf events is usually a solid play. This thoroughbred fits the bill. He has the topmost earnings per race. Check out this one.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 LEGAL TITAN (ML=9/2), #2 HIS RIGHTS (ML=5/1), #11 SOUPERSILVERDOLLAR (ML=6/1),

LEGAL TITAN - 9/2 is just too low of a value to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back outings. HIS RIGHTS - Didn't land in the money on July 1st after the long vacation. Be doubtful of this horse this time out. When looking at today's class rating, he will have to record a better speed fig than last time out to be competitive in this turf route. SOUPERSILVERDOLLAR - This entrant didn't go to the head of the pack and didn't make up any ground in the stretch last time he ran.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#9 GHOSTLYPRINCE is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,9,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [6,9,12] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[6,9,12] with [6,9,12] with [4,5,6,9,12] with [4,5,6,9,12] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13500 Class Rating: 55

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 FUNDING SOURCE 2/1
# 6 WHITE DOVE 9/2
# 7 NO HARD FEELINGS 5/1

FUNDING SOURCE is the most respectable bet in this race. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Asmussen running at this distance are the most competitive in this group of animals. Will make a strong showing versus this group. With a nice Equibase class figure average of 78, has one of the best class advantages in this group of horses. WHITE DOVE - Is difficult not to consider based on speed figures which have been decent - 55 avg - of late. With a reliable 60 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. NO HARD FEELINGS - Ought to be given a chance as she drops to compete against this less demanding field. Burgos has strong numbers that point to this filly to be a solid contender.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Penn National - Race #2 - Post: 6:14pm - SO - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating:

#5 LA MACCHINA ROSSA (ML=7/2)


LA MACCHINA ROSSA - This filly is almost always on the board. Chiappe comes to race again after getting to know the filly in the last affair. I like to wager on this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a strong contest within the last month. The jockey and trainer combination have a positive ROI when they are put together.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 PINK ROSE (ML=8/5), #2 BOSS LIKE BETH (ML=5/2), #3 GENIEINABRIDLE (ML=3/1),

PINK ROSE - Last time around the track it was a nice victory, but this time around the stretch run is going to be a true test of courage. Doubtful that the speed figure she garnered on June 11th will be good enough in this contest. GENIEINABRIDLE - Tough to like the downward moving flow (82/69/66) of speed ratings.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #5 LA MACCHINA ROSSA to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass