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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369801

    #1

    Wednesday 7/23/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369801

    #2
    Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks


    Presque Isle Downs - Race #3
    #6 Expo City Barn has won with half of their six similar starters here over the last couple years, and this one might be ready enough to go at first asking. Take a look with a win-early pedigree.
    #1 A Million Dreams He showed a little bit of interest late in the debut at Saratoga, and you have to assume the waters may not be quite as deep here while stretching out. Some upside.
    #4 Classic Nofty He's another new face that could be prepped to get the trip out of the box, so check him out on the tote and track.
    Race Summary Expo City goes for a team that has done good work in these kinds of route spots locally, and those who have already raced in here have now shown a ton of talent just yet.
    Presque Isle Downs - Race #5
    #1 Leo Q Rail draw will force him to find a trip while making the career debut, but the team has done pretty good work in similar spots here recently. One of the ones first out.
    #8 Freestate Only a brief chase and hard fade in the Saratoga debut, but there is some room to come forward today while trying the new footing. Outside draw could lead to a good spy.
    #7 Leftnateawalkin Could see him bringing something better this time around after failing to carry his tracking pace in the debut run. Wouldn't be too excited at anything like the 9/5 ML offering, though.
    Race Summary Leo Q may be able to make some noise at first asking in a spot without much proven form. Take a look at him ahead of this.
    Presque Isle Downs - Race #8
    #10 Momentous Miss She can be tough with a good tracking trip waiting for her from the high draw -- might lead her to a first-jump run ahead of the later finishers.
    #2 She's Got Rhythm Some of her better stuff stacks up well here, and I'm hoping her last was a very mild hint at something more to come? Could play here.
    #4 Donate Life Cutback pace has a few good sprint tries on the page, and this softer spot could give her a shot to wake up today.
    Race Summary Momentous Miss should get a perfect run of things from the outside in this spot, and any additional step forward in the third start back off the bench would make her a handful.
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 369801

      #3
      Frank Carulli's Daily Picks


      Colonial Downs - Race #1
      #3 FIELD OF ROSES (8-1) Won 3 of 4 starts in non-stakes by combined 10 lengths, turf the question.
      #4 VICTORIA’S DANCER (7- Gets class relief, shortens up in bid for $100k in turf earnings.
      #5 SALLY’S GOLD (5-1) Finished in the money in all three grass sprints, gets Karamanos.
      Race Summary FIELD OF ROSES, the lone 3-year-old and three-race winner in the field, reawakened on short rest to win going away in a main-track allowance sprint at Miami Valley. She has been away four months and tries turf for the first time. Her dam was unraced but her sire, Kantharos, was 3-3 with two graded stakes victories in a brief racing career. Bet to win and place and play 3-2 and 3-3 daily doubles.
      Colonial Downs - Race #2
      #2 CHASE BY THE MOON (5-1) Awakened in first start for this barn, fell asleep in last pair versus better.
      #3 RASTA GIRL (6-1) Beaten fave after bumpy start, broke maiden in one-turn mile by 7-1/2 lengths.
      #1 MY SUGAR BOO (5-2) Rallied for minor awards in last three starts on dirt, draws rail with Centeno.
      Race Summary CHASE BY THE MOON won on the barn switch in a $25,000 maiden claiming sprint but was well beaten against better after bumpy starts in two follow-up tries. Her recent works are encouraging and her dam was 14-for-23 with a $243k bankroll. Bet to win and place and play 2-1, 2-3 and 3-2 exactas.
      Colonial Downs - Race #3
      #8 BEYOND QUESTION (6-1) Should be in prime striking spot on the class drop to win again.
      #5 SHE’S NO UNCLE (5-2) Good first gear, drops below claim level in second start for Ness.
      #6 PAROLA SICURA (3-1) Winless on lawn but was stakes-placed with best speed figures as a 3yo.
      Race Summary BEYOND QUESTION could sit a similar stalking trip in her bid for a repeat win at 5-1/2F in her third start this year. She takes on mostly older rivals but offers the best value from among the main contenders. Bet to win and place and play a 3-6-8 exacta box.
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 369801

        #4
        F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Canterbury Park
        PURCHASE
        Canterbury Park - Race 6 Win, Place &Show / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $2 Daily Double / $1 Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
        Maiden Special • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 CR: 61 • Purse: $28,000 • Post: 7:40P
        FOR MN-BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.
        Contenders Race Analysis
        P# Horse Morn
        Line
        Accept
        Odds
        Race Type: Dominant Stalker. FLATTER ME BILLY is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FLATTER ME BILLY: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in Track Master Power Rating.
        4 FLATTER ME BILLY 9/2 1/1

        P# Horse (In Running Style Order) Post Morn
        Line
        Running Style Good
        Class
        Good
        Speed
        Early Figure Finish Figure Platinum
        Figure
        4 FLATTER ME BILLY 4 9/2 Alternator/Stalker 64 45 55.0 42.7 40.7
        2 CHARGING DARLING 2 15/1 Alternator/Stalker 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
        10 GIVEMEACOOKIE 10 12/1 Alternator/Trailer 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0
        Unknown Running Style: NANCY'S SHAWL (5/1) [Jockey: Roman Constantino - Trainer: Padilla Tim P], KAITSKATE (7/2) [Jockey: Hernandez Harry - Trainer: Berndt Joel], RHYTHM READY (6/1) [Jockey: Murray Erica M - Trainer: Scherer Gary M], TAPTOGO (10/1) [
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 369801

          #5
          F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park
          PURCHASE
          Belterra Park - Race 8 Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 20 cent Super High 5
          Maiden Claiming $7,500 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3-6 CR: 71 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 2:45P
          (RAIL AT 14 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED)(PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $6,500). (IF TRANSFERRED TO THE MAIN TRACK, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT ONE MILE AND 70 YARDS.)
          Contenders Race Analysis
          P# Horse Morn
          Line
          Accept
          Odds
          Race Type: Lone Stalker. STARSHIP D'ORO is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PATRONAGE: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the d istance/surface. STARSHIP D'ORO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GROUND SHAKER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rati ng. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
          8 PATRONAGE 2/1 5/2
          9 STARSHIP D'ORO 4/1 6/1
          7 GROUND SHAKER 15/1 8/1

          P# Horse (In Running Style Order) Post Morn
          Line
          Running Style Good
          Class
          Good
          Speed
          Early Figure Finish Figure Platinum
          Figure
          10 SCOVILLE UNIT 10 5/1 Front-runner 60 52 46.5 46.5 34.5
          3 WE GOT THIS 3 12/1 Alternator/Front-runner 69 45 83.0 61.6 48.6
          9 STARSHIP D'ORO 9 4/1 Stalker 74 66 97.6 57.8 51.3
          8 PATRONAGE 8 2/1 Trailer 81 85 65.6 69.8 63.8
          2 AGAINST THE WIND 2 20/1 Alternator/Trailer 0 0 78.7 50.2 36.7
          5 ACE ON THE TURN 5 6/1 Alternator/Trailer 69 50 56.6 50.3 41.3
          7 GROUND SHAKER 7 15/1 Alternator/Trailer 71 71 53.1 55.9 51.4
          1 MALEVAJE 1 8/1 Alternator/Non-contender 0 0 86.7 44.8 33.8
          6 LYTE CRUDE 6 10/1 Alternator/Non-contender 81 75 49.3 9.5 0.0
          4 NUTHIN FANCY 4 15/1 Alternator/Non-contender 0 0 20.2 20.2 2.2
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 369801

            #6

            Handicapped by The Walker Group at Saratoga

            PURCHASE
            Always check program numbers.
            Odds shown are morning line odds.



            Race 9 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $90000 Class Rating: 73

            FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (IF THE STEWARDS CONSIDER IT INADVISABLE TO
            RECOMMENDED CHOICES
            # 10 CHRIS'S SONG 5/2
            # 1 BLISS STREET 15/1
            # 7 KING PUCK 8/5
            CHRIS'S SONG is my choice. Ran a sharp last race. He has solid class ratings, averaging 82, and has to be given consideration in here. Always difficult to beat Rice and Lezcano working together, winning 21 percent of their races. BLISS STREET - Looks decent versus this group and will probably be one of the leaders. He has put up decent figures under today's conditions and ought to fare well versus this field. KING PUCK - Clement has this gelding racing well and is a very good pick based on the competitive speed figures earned in sprint races lately. Have to play this gelding with the sound earnings per start in turf sprint races.
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 369801

              #7

              Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

              PURCHASE





              Colonial Downs - Race #7 - Post: 3:30pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 82

              Rating:

              #3 PSYCHEDELIC (ML=8/1)
              #9 NEXT EPISODE (ML=9/2)
              #10 MAXIMO MADNESS (ML=3/1)
              #7 BALI KUTA (ML=4/1)


              PSYCHEDELIC - I really like that recent race on Jul 8th at Horseshoe Indianapolis where she finished sixth. Last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis, she broke from the far outside. I don't need an advanced degree like The Brain to tell me her inside post today should help. NEXT EPISODE - Carrasco is right back for another event today after sitting atop this horse for the 1st attempt on Jul 11th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. I'm focusing on the class of this beautiful animal, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch. Finished sixth at Colonial Downs last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 9/2 right here, she looks like a possible contender. Already competed against today's M/L favorite on Jul 11th at Colonial Downs and finished ahead of that one. Have to believe she can do it again today. MAXIMO MADNESS - The jockey and trainer combination have a favorable return on investment when they combine forces. Dropping in Equibase class figure points from her July 11th race at Colonial Downs. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this one the edge. BALI KUTA - This rider/trainer duo has been producing a very beneficial ROI, right at +140.

              Vulnerable Contenders: #1 STAGE CALL (ML=6/1), #12 MAINSTREAM SELLOUT (ML=6/1), #13 BRAMBLE BUSH (ML=6/1),

              STAGE CALL - The finish of ninth in the last race shows me that this equine may be going off form. When looking at today's class rating, she will have to record a better speed fig than last race out to be competitive in this turf route. MAINSTREAM SELLOUT - This entrant hasn't shown very much in the last couple events. BRAMBLE BUSH - She had to show me more against that weaker bunch in the last race on May 15th to get my support today.

              GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - NEXT EPISODE - I start with the top class horse in the group then work my way down. This one's got the top earnings per start. No need to look further.


              STRAIGHT WAGERS: Putting our cash on #3 PSYCHEDELIC to win. Have to have odds of at least 6/1 or better though
              EXACTA WAGERS: Box [3,9]
              TRIFECTA WAGERS: Pass
              SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
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              Comment

              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 369801

                #8

                Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

                PURCHASE
                Always check program numbers.
                Odds shown are morning line odds.



                Race 4 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 85

                FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 23. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 23 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500
                RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                # 7 AHSAD 7/2
                # 6 WE READY 5/2
                # 3 LORD WINSALOT 6/1
                AHSAD has a very strong shot to take this race. Kirby has a strong 26 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Has been running well lately and ought to be on the lead early on. Had one of the most favorable Equibase Speed Figures of this field in his last contest. WE READY - Reason to like this gelding as he has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. With a solid 72 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. LORD WINSALOT - Always difficult to beat Rodriguez and Haddock working together, winning 25 percent of their races. Is a strong contender based on figures earned lately under today's conditions.
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 369801

                  #9

                  Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

                  PURCHASE





                  Presque Isle Downs - Race #1 - Post: 3:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 69

                  Rating:

                  #4 TWISTED EMPRESS (ML=3/1)
                  #5 THY NAME IS WOMAN (ML=8/1)


                  TWISTED EMPRESS - This filly is in good condition. Ran second on June 30th. This animal isn't the morning line choice, but finished ahead of today's M/L favorite in her last race (Jun 30th at Presque Isle Downs). That 69 fig this filly garnered in her last event tells me she's a main player today. THY NAME IS WOMAN - That last drill tells me this filly is set for a top race. This filly has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Fennessy. Better be careful of this angle.

                  Vulnerable Contenders: #6 LITTLE MISS MUNNY (ML=2/1), #3 COURAGEOUS ARI (ML=5/2), #1 STARSHIP RADIANCE (ML=5/1),

                  LITTLE MISS MUNNY - Difficult to put your dough on the win end of any horse that finishes second and third as regularly as this entrant does. COURAGEOUS ARI - This mount likes to be there at the wire, but doesn't usually win. Leave out of the top spot. More than enough races at Presque Isle Downs with no trips to the winner's circle. The speed figure in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this thoroughbred as a likely underpriced equine. STARSHIP RADIANCE - Run-of-the-mill speed figure last time around the track at Presque Isle Downs at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't think this horse will improve too much in today's event.
                  STRAIGHT WAGERS: #4 TWISTED EMPRESS is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better
                  EXACTA WAGERS: Box [4,5]
                  TRIFECTA WAGERS: Skip
                  SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Pass
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