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Scott Shapiro: $132K Carryover Pick 6 at Saratoga Analysis | Wed

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July 29, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

For the second consecutive week, horseplayers will be treated to a six-figure Pick 6 carryover on Wednesday afternoon after a couple of dark days at Saratoga. This time the carryover sits at $132,233 for the sequence that kicks off in Race 4 at 2:58 PM eastern and is headlined by the Johnstone S. for NY-bred fillies and mares set to go as Race 8 on the 9-race card. Hopefully, we can get the week off to a better start than the previous one.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 4:
Grade: X
Main Ticket: 6 Corruption
Backups: None

Forecast: Like many, I will lean on #6 Corruption to kick things off. The 7-5 ML favorite drops back into the allowance ranks after a solid fourth in the Manhattan (G1) during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. The Mark Casse trainee did not make the lead that day, but should have no issue making the front in this spot if jockey Jose Ortiz wants it. Whether he goes right to the front or opts to stalk just off the early pace, the 4YO gelding should get the right trip as the best horse making him a single I trust to get things rolling.


Race 5:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 5 White Whale; 4 Fleeting Free; 6 Fiddling Felix; 3 V Cruizer
Backups: None

Forecast: Things get a lot more challenging in leg 2 with this six-figure maiden claimer for 3YOs and up. 5-2-ML favorite #6 Fiddling Felix posted a big number in his first start against maiden claimers thirteen days ago, but was unable to get the job done against lesser. On the surface, he appears potentially vulnerable moving up in class, but was claimed out of the $20k maiden claimer by trainer Fernando Abreu. Abreu has clicked with 3 of 8 first off the claim runners over the last two years when wheeling back them back on 15 days rest or less making this one tough to toss off of his last. #5 White Whale is likely to take plenty of support too dropping in for a tag for the first time for the team of Rusty Arnold and Luis Saez. Arnold and Saez have won 3 of 8 together over the last 60 days.

Of the price options, I will use first-time starter #3 V Cruizer and second-timer #4 Fleeting Free. V Cruizer comes in off a bullet drill over this surface for Linda Rice, while Fleeting Free adds blinkers in his first start for hot training Melanie Giddings. Both have upside still at this point and would provide solid separation from the public in leg two.


Race 6:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Snow Face Princess; 9 Street Sue; 1 Santina; 11 Keto Drink (AE)
Backups: 5 Actis; 8 Lima Lima

Forecast: A lot in this race from a wagering perspective will change if #11 Keto Drink draws in off the also-eligible list. Oddsmaker David Aragona has the Twirling Candy filly listed as the 2-1-ML choice after breaking slowly, but finishing well in her debut effort on July 10. Perhaps, she plays a little bigger in the Pick 6 than she does in the Win pool, but either way she is likely to get over bet despite a promising debut. #10 Sharp Mindset is also likely to take public support for trainer Joe Sharp. Sharp is white-hot to start the summer in Saratoga and this gal’s dam won on debut in 2017, but Sharp is just 1 for 26 over the last two years with 2YOs making their first start in a turf sprint. I am also not in love with the far outside draw if there are no scratches in the body of the field.

I will use several in here with #4 Snow Face Princess being my lukewarm top choice. The Midshipman filly was bet down to favoritism on debut at Aqueduct in late May in a 5-furlong race over the mud. The Todd Pletcher trainee flashed speed, but finished an underwhelming fourth. Pletcher adds the blinkers and legs up Irad Ortiz Jr. on a filly that is a half-sister to first out turf sprint winner Strutsherstuff. She still has plenty of upside.


Race 7:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Cognoscenti
Backups: 1 Brigade Commander

Forecast: #1 Brigade Commander and #6 Cognoscenti exit the same race on July 6 when it was Brigade Commander winning going away with Cognoscenti settling for a disappointing fourth as the 3-2-public choice. Brigade Commander moves inside and has shown an affinity for this surface, but his 2 for 28 career record makes him tough to trust in back-to-back races. On the other hand, Cognoscenti’s trainer Miguel Clement is an eye-popping 9 for 25 with a $3.82 ROI over the last 14 days. This gelding did not fire big in his first start under Clement earlier this month, but has a big shot to turn the tables on the stretch out to 1 3/8-miles.


Race 8:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 9 Bernietakescharge; 2 Dolomite
Backups: None

Forecast: I am going to take a swing against the ML favorites in the Wednesday feature where #8 Sterling Silver and #5 My Mane Squeeze are likely to take a lot of public support. Sterling Silver has earned over $1M and My Mane Squeeze has taken on some of the best female sprinters in the country, but both are not without warts. Sterling Silver has earned her share of wins, but also has lost at 1-5, 3-1, 4-5, and 3-5 dating back to last fall. My Mane Squeeze is a bit scarier because she gets the big class drop, but her last couple of efforts have been well below her best. She can win, but probably as an underlay.

#2 Dolomite is logical if you are against the favorites, but #9 Bernietakescharge might get overlooked despite a career best effort holding off Sterling Silver in the Critical Eye on June 4. The Take Charge Indy showed grit that day and has plenty of proven form at one-turn as well. Hopefully, she can sit just off #1 Majestic Return and prove her win last out was no fluke.


Race 9:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 5 Fifi La Fume; 1A Gattatiz
Backups: 2 Kyla’s Kause

Forecast: On paper #2 Kyla’s Kause looms large in this state-bred maiden claimer over the lawn to close the day and the sequence. The Daredevil filly wins this going away if she runs back to her effort last October, but one has to wonder where the $170k Saratoga August 2023 purchase has been and why the need to drop her in for a tag off the bench. She will not have to be that much to earn her first trip to the winner’s circle, but I struggle to get excited about wagering on her in any capacity. I will try to beat her with #5 Fifi La Fume and #1A Gattatiz. Fifi La Fume broke slow and was buried on the rail in a tight spot much of the way last out and gets a massive rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr. Gattatiz makes her second start off the bench after racing against the flow in a similar spot on June 19.

Best of luck!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#4 Boogie Woogie	I like that she showed she could get past horses in that debut effort, as there isn't a whole lot of finishing punch lined up here. Chance to relax and finish.
#2 Morrigana	Forward player goes third off the bench after turning in a useful effort here earlier this month. Any other step forward would probably make her tough.
#1 Spoken Vow	Her better stuff keeps her in the mix today, and there is some chance she can steal off with this one from the fence. Think she's more likely underneath.
Race Summary	Boogie Woogie has enough pace to find a good spot without having to do early battle if they don't want to. Could see her getting a really nice kind of pressing/spying run while tracking the rail runner.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#6 De La Cruz	Nothing creative here -- think any one of his regular baseline efforts would get the job done against this crew. Should be tough at a short price.
#3 And That's My Story	Tactical type came down last out after turning in another reliable effort. He's clearly in the mix at this kind of local level, but the top choice presents a new problem.
#5 Volatile Storm	He steps up with form that doesn't seem totally overmatched here for a piece. Not super excited about him on top, but think he could plug away for some part of this.
Race Summary	De La Cruz is probably going to hit hard here with several running lines that should make short work of this crew if he's able to transfer something similar to the local surface.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#5 Mrs. Manicotti	She comes back at a reasonable level after turning in a good run to score at the $7,500 level last out, and she could find another good pressing trip at a midrange price.
#9 Lily's Time	Dropper didn't show up with a big run last time out, but she looks like a good fit while cutting the price today. Worried that she will get bet and can be unreliable when denied the lead.
#2 Triple Secret	Love the direction she's heading through the last few races and the way she punched home to graduate last out. Think she'll be overlooked on the rise.
Race Summary	Handful of interesting risers here today, and Mrs. Manicotti looks playable with some OK local form and perhaps a decent pressing trip waiting for her.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#5 SWEET AND FEISTY (6-1)	Gets the call by default in dreadful field, good price if nothing else.
#8 BEST WORST IDEA (6-1)	Rallied for third in 28th start after early trouble yet again.
#1 MISS MORGAN (5-2)	Takes magnified drop, adds blinkers, but only beat one rival in last three starts.
Race Summary	Somebody has to win in a field that lost by a combined 89 lengths in the last start. SWEET AND FEISTY is a good value play at anywhere near her 6-1 morning line. She has improved since adding Lasix, can be in close striking range and gets in light-weighted on the class drop. Bet to win and place and play a 5/1,3, 8/1, 3, 4, 6, 8 trifecta.

Delaware Park - Race #2

#7 VELVET VIXEN (6-1)	Plays catch-me-if-you-can at distance which she’s yet to conquer.
#2 HOT DANCE (2-1)	First or second in 7 of 12 starts at 6F, ‘shuffled’ back to third in latest.
#4 COMPASS FIRE (6-1)	Likes to win, rallied past rival who went wire-to-wire next out.
Race Summary	VELVET VIXEN sped off to a runaway victory in a 5-1/2F turf-to-dirt sprint for her first win this year. She breezed 3F in :35 flat since then and will take some catching again, albeit at a distance which she is 0-for-11. Bet to win and place and play a 2-4-7 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#1 MAD BANKER (8-5)	Held improved form, kept good company since Ness claim, 2-for-4 at distance.
#8 CARVELLIAN QUEST (12-1)	In good form, has tactical speed, second in one- and two-turn routes at Laurel.
#3 EPIC LUCK (6-1)	Ran second to repeat winner on dirt and American Unity (14-37, $310k) on turf.
Race Summary	MAD BANKER earned his top two speed figures but settled for second best from on and off the pace in his last two starts at one mile. He has $77k in earnings this year with his company lines dotted with follow-up winners. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3-8 exacta box

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Canterbury Park
PURCHASE

Canterbury Park - Race 6	Win, Place &Show / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $2 Daily Double / $1 Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
Claiming $15,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $14,500 • Post: 7:40P
(RAIL AT 20 FEET). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR MINNESOTA BRED WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF 1 MILE AND 1/16 ON THE MAIN TRACK.)

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * CHAMAVILLE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. KOOKYBERRY: Horse has a Trac kMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. BARBSDREAMCOMETRUE: Today is a horse's first or second race on turf, and turf starters from this sire have a win percentage of at least 15 (minimum of 50 starts). CHURCH PEW: Horse ranks in the top thr ee in TrackMaster Power Rating. ROSE VIEW: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3	CHAMAVILLE	5/2	9/2
8	KOOKYBERRY	9/2	7/1
5	BARBSDREAMCOMETRUE	5/1	8/1
1	CHURCH PEW	4/1	8/1
7	ROSE VIEW	6/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	MISS GOLD	4	10/1	Front-runner	66	61	85.2	67.2	54.7
2	MOONLIGHT TRYST	2	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	80	82	79.6	76.8	68.8
8	KOOKYBERRY	8	9/2	Stalker	78	79	87.8	73.8	67.8
3	CHAMAVILLE	3	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	86	81	81.8	80.0	76.0
5	BARBSDREAMCOMETRUE	5	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	74	58.6	71.1	61.1
1	CHURCH PEW	1	4/1	Trailer	87	78	61.4	67.8	57.8
7	ROSE VIEW	7	6/1	Trailer	77	80	52.4	69.4	62.9
6	MIGGI	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	62	55.0	55.9	43.4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National
PURCHASE

Penn National - Race 5	W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $0.50 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
SO $16,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 7:41P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $16,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * METALHEAD: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MILO: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top thr ee in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	METALHEAD	5/2	5/2
3	MILO	4/1	9/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	ONE LAST KISS	4	7/2	Front-runner	65	73	65.4	59.0	48.0
7	TROPANDHAGEN	7	5/1	Front-runner	66	68	65.3	65.8	56.8
1	DAVOLA	1	12/1	Front-runner	68	67	59.1	51.4	40.4
6	AU SOME WARRIOR	6	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	75	65	70.4	67.8	61.3
3	MILO	3	4/1	Stalker	78	77	84.6	74.0	67.0
5	METALHEAD	5	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	91	84	73.8	83.6	79.1
8	POPS HARPER	8	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	66	68.9	63.6	53.6
2	PRIVATE CABANA	2	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	61	40.4	59.4	47.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ajax Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Speed Index Race - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $9500 Class Rating: 69

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WITH AN AVERAGE SPEED INDEX OF 85 AND UNDER OR WITH A SPEED INDEX THAT HAS NEVER BEEN BETTER THAN 90.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 SUGAR BOY PERRY 5/1
# 2 JEZZABELLA 15/1
# 4 THE BATMANN 5/2

SUGAR BOY PERRY looks to be a respectable contender. With Sanchez uptop him, this gelding will most likely be able to break out early for this event. Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 68 - of his last outing. Looks decent for the conditions of this outing today, showing solid figures in short races as of late. JEZZABELLA - Is hard not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been very good - 69 avg - of late. Must be given consideration given the class of races run recently. THE BATMANN - Reid has a sound 21 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Should keep the good string of finish positions intact this time around.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Colonial Downs - Race #7 - Post: 3:24pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

#3 FERAL'S JOY (ML=6/1)
#6 KENTUCKY GO GO (ML=30/1)
#1 MR FLOWERS (ML=9/5)
#7 SOUPER ATTENTIVE (ML=9/2)


FERAL'S JOY - When Karamanos and Duarte are put together on horses the return on investment has been terrific at +114. Duarte brings him right back. I recommend you stick with this strong gelding. Duarte has a very great win pct in turf routes. This gelding should be ready to win. KENTUCKY GO GO - Lots of positive 'vibrations' joined to this horse and his brain trust. MR FLOWERS - Ness is solid in turf routes. This animal should have no rationalizations if he doesn't win. When Sanchez and Ness work together on equines the winning percent has been out of sight at 31. Horse's last race was at Colonial Downs in a race with a class number of 95. Dropping considerably in class figure in today's event puts him in a solid position right here in this race. Ness brings him back again. I propose you stick with this strong gelding. SOUPER ATTENTIVE - Using this jockey/trainer combination is a good decision. Took a big class drop last out, and I think he may have needed it. Casse enters him at a similar class today. I'd expect an improved performance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 LACHAISE (ML=3/1), #2 KEEN SURGE (ML=5/1),

LACHAISE - 3/1 is too short of a price to take on most any mount that has run poorly in back to back efforts. KEEN SURGE - Ran his best speed figure last race out, but the 'off conditions' may have had something to do with it.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SOUPER ATTENTIVE - If I can get anything close to the morning line odds on this one I'm wagering. Wasn't too far from the winner in the last race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 FERAL'S JOY to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	3 with [1,6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	3 with [1,6,7] with [1,6,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	3 with [1,6,7] with [1,6,7] with [1,6,7] Total Cost: $6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Louisiana Downs - Race #5 - Post: 5:57pm - Maiden Special - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#8 ROARING RAPIDS (ML=6/1)
#1 E LION (ML=5/2)


ROARING RAPIDS - As long as Vargas keeps this racer off the pace, I have to believe this one could be a happy winner. May be extremely hard to beat this horse on the sod today. Last out scored a nice turf figure, the highest of any of these animals. E LION - This horse brings in a lot of cash per race around the track. I believe he will boost the lifetime earnings in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 DR. NIKO (ML=3/2), #3 TEQUILA N' SALT (ML=9/2), #7 KEOKUK KID (ML=8/1),

DR. NIKO - A pattern of deteriorating speed figs 85/68/58 for this entrant. TEQUILA N' SALT - Doesn't really look inspiring to me after the lack of any kind of closing response on May 31st. Not likely for this one to make an impact with no recent success in a sprint race. The speed figure last out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this thoroughbred as a likely underlay. KEOKUK KID - Not the proper 'situation' in this race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #8 ROARING RAPIDS on the nose if you can get odds of 9/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 64

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 HAZIEL 4/1
# 9 PINK PICTURE 7/2
# 2 KENNEDY HEIGHTS 6/1

HAZIEL is the best wager in this race. Could best this field based on the speed figure - 61 - of her last affair. Vaunts reliable Speed Figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group. PINK PICTURE - With a strong 60 average speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's outing. Her 56 average has this filly with among the most favorable speed figs for this race.