Thursday 7/31/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2025, 07:16 AM

Brian W. Spencer: Del Mar Spot Plays | Thursday, July 31, 2025

July 31, 2025 | By Brian Spencer

Week 3 of the Del Mar summer meet gets underway with an 8-race card that boasts 11 or more entries in each of the day's final 6 races. My key plays come early and late on the card.

Del Mar - Race 1

#1 Virat: Like that he's quick enough to get in the mix from the fence but can also tap the brakes just a touch if necessary. Should trip out up top in a short field.

#3 Sorrento Sky: His better stuff would do the trick here, and he's back fresh after a few months off while coming down from Grade III company. Wouldn't argue with you.

#5 Sumter: He has been in with some pretty tough customers in recent starts, too, but I worry that he's going to give a couple of them a little bit of a head start, and that may be the difference here.

Race Summary: Virat and Sorrento Sky lead the way for me in the opener, but the former feels like the right one with a good draw to mix things up early.

Del Mar - Race 7

#10 Vibez: She has been in a couple good spots over the last several months, and she's a good fit with this crew with a good spying trip likely waiting for her. Edge.

#8 Rugelach: Loved the score off the claim last out, and she should be in the thick of things up top again today. Mild worry that she has enough company to make things tough.

#4 Hopeful: Solid effort to score at Santa Anita when racing fresh last month, and that probably leaves her a little bit of reasonable upside in the second start back. Seems like one of the ones.

Race Summary: Vibez has a class edge on a lot of these and should find a good spot to watch things unfold. Would be happy to take something like the 6/1 ML offering.

Del Mar - Race 8

#12 Victory Cat: Debuter draws well to avoid any early scrum down toward the fence, and he seems to be coming into this pretty forwardly for a horse at this level.

#2 Lord Dunmore: Logical player has been consistent enough with better on the turf, and he seems like an OK fit with this group if he can transfer that form over to the dirt.

#8 Eagles Dare: Feel like it'd be hard for me to hang my hat here, but the last one wasn't all bad, and there are a couple lines on the page that would at least be good for a thrill here.

Race Summary: Victory Cat goes first out in a race without a whole lot of serious form on paper, so take a look at him on the tote and track ahead of this.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2025, 07:17 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Saratoga Spot Plays | Thursday, July 31, 2025

July 31, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saratoga puts July in the rear-view mirror today, but not before a 10-race card that features the $150,000 John Morrissey Stakes for New York-breds. A couple of early races caught my eye, so let's try to strike in the first half.

Saratoga | Race 1 | 1:10 pm ET

#2 Force (10-1 morning line odds) debuts in a race with a slew of other first-time starters. It's interesting that sharp 2YO outfit Arindel Farm has a New York-bred despite its Florida roots, and this one lures Jose Ortiz off a bullet workout at Monmouth. Wire Waiting is an unraced son of American Pharoah, who has been a better turf sire than dirt in many cases, and Waiting's a grandson of turf champion mare Wait A While. Win-place bet #2.

Saratoga | Race 5 | 3:27 pm ET

#5 Miss Magical (9-2 morning line odds) exits open company after a modest try in the Schuylerville Stakes and gets a complete makeover on turf, around 2 turns and adding blinkers against New York-bred maidens. Trainer George Weaver doing a lot right at the meet had got 2 turf works out of her for the new test. Win bet #5.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2025, 07:18 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #1

#1 Virat	Like that he's quick enough to get in the mix from the fence but can also tap the brakes just a touch if necessary. Should trip out up top in a short field.
#3 Sorrento Sky	His better stuff would do the trick here, and he's back fresh after a few months off while coming down from Grade III company. Wouldn't argue with you.
#5 Sumter	He has been in with some pretty tough customers in recent starts, too, but I worry that he's going to give a couple of them a little bit of a head start, and that may be the difference here.
Race Summary	Virat and Sorrento Sky lead the way for me in the opener, but the former feels like the right one with a good draw to mix things up early.

Del Mar - Race #7

#10 Vibez	She has been in a couple good spots over the last several months, and she's a good fit with this crew with a good spying trip likely waiting for her. Edge.
#8 Rugelach	Loved the score off the claim last out, and she should be in the thick of things up top again today. Mild worry that she has enough company to make things tough.
#4 Hopeful	Solid effort to score at Santa Anita when racing fresh last month, and that probably leaves her a little bit of reasonable upside in the second start back. Seems like one of the ones.
Race Summary	Vibez has a class edge on a lot of these and should find a good spot to watch things unfold. Would be happy to take something like the 6/1 ML offering.

Del Mar - Race #8

#12 Victory Cat	Debuter draws well to avoid any early scrum down toward the fence, and he seems to be coming into this pretty forwardly for a horse at this level.
#2 Lord Dunmore	Logical player has been consistent enough with better on the turf, and he seems like an OK fit with this group if he can transfer that form over to the dirt.
#8 Eagles Dare	Feel like it'd be hard for me to hang my hat here, but the last one wasn't all bad, and there are a couple lines on the page that would at least be good for a thrill here.
Race Summary	Victory Cat goes first out in a race without a whole lot of serious form on paper, so take a look at him on the tote and track ahead of this.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2025, 07:19 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Colonial Downs - Race #1

#8 DAY TO DAY (6-1)	One of nine first-time starters, leading barn is 7-26 with turf runners at this meet.
#6 HOVEKOMA (7-2)	$200K sales buy shows good turf works for high-percentage trainer and sire.
#5 WICKEDWITHBOURBON (5-1)	Disputed pace, held second behind runaway, experience counts.
Race Summary	Trainer Michael Trombetta is 12/3-2-2 with first-time turf starters at Colonial in the last 11 months, none of whom were favored. His uncoupled stablemates worked in company last Wednesday and shared a :36.3 bullet workout from the gate. Give DAY TO DAY the nod. He is by multiple Grade 1 winner McKinzie ($3.6 million) and his dam’s siblings are 5-for-24 in turf sprints with an average winning distance of 5-1/2F. Bet to win and place and play 8-5 and 8-6 exactas.

Colonial Downs - Race #4

#1 MIZOULA (4-1)	Well-traveled 4yo held her own at Saratoga, worked bullet since, goes well again.
#3 J.Z.’S LAST SCHANCE (	Overland trips at 5-1/2F yielded pair of photo-finish setbacks.
#7 SHAMELESS BRIDE (6-1)	Blew past tiring loose leader in debut romp on Colonial lawn.
Race Summary	MIZOULA adapted quickly on the change from running long on the turf to sprinting. She demolished a suspect field to break her maiden at Delaware Park, but she validated that effort by battling the top pair until the final eighth in a $50,000 optional claimer at Saratoga, finishing behind four mid-70 Beyer types. Bet to win and place and play 1-3 and 1-7 exactas.

Colonial Downs - Race #6

#2 MO JACKSON (6-1)	Exited strong race but fired blank on soft footing, price goes up.
#10 MR. BUSINESS (8-1)	Chased the 9-2 winner, caught by the fave for place spot at this distance.
#4 YOUR LORDSHIP (7-2)	Raced ‘under tight restraint’ until stretch, lacked kick as fave in U.S. debut.
Race Summary	Hoping the ‘good’ turf at Colonial had something to do with MO JACKSON’S sub-par effort as the favorite last out. He earned that attention when he rallied for second at Churchill Downs in the race prior despite not changing leads. He finished between three rivals who came back to finish first, second and third in separate races with average 78 Beyers. Bet to win and place and play a trifecta key with 2 over 3, 4, 10, 11, 12.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2025, 07:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Woodbine
PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race 5	Rolling Double / Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta 0.20 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)/$1 Swinger
Claiming $7,500 • 7 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 71 • Purse: $28,600 • Post: 5:22P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2025 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED FOR ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ONEJABTOOMANY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest ave rage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. JIMMY'S AFFAIR: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. ROOKIE COURT: H orse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	ONEJABTOOMANY	3/1	3/1
8	JIMMY'S AFFAIR	10/1	6/1
7	ROOKIE COURT	5/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
10	NOT SO SWIFT	10	6/1	Front-runner	62	67	72.1	51.9	39.9
7	ROOKIE COURT	7	5/1	Front-runner	73	68	69.4	52.8	43.3
6	SUPER SERENADE	6	4/1	Stalker	62	55	64.0	51.3	38.3
4	PROUD MISCHIEF	4	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	66	62	60.6	56.6	43.6
1	ONEJABTOOMANY	1	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	82	74	57.8	68.0	64.5
9	HURRICANE GIZMO	9	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	70	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	WILD QUEENIE	5	20/1	Trailer	65	61	20.2	45.8	31.8
8	JIMMY'S AFFAIR	8	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	80	71	48.8	64.8	57.3
3	SPIRIT O'TIPPERARY	3	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	71	62	36.0	55.9	42.4
11	ZEENA SWIFT	11	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	63	66.2	50.4	38.9
2	PRINCESS ROSINA	2	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	69	54	40.3	45.2	27.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2025, 07:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Prairie Meadows
PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race 8	Win / Place / Show / Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50 Min) Superfecta (.10 Min) / Daily Double / Pick 3 (.50 Min) / Pick 4 (.50 Min)
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3-6 • CR: 52 • Purse: $14,200 • Post: 8:59P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. IOWA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * ZETTIE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ACTIN' U P: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. RIDE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	ZETTIE	5/2	3/1
2	ACTIN' UP	3/1	9/2
1	RIDE	2/1	5/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	ACTIN' UP	2	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	55	42	46.5	36.7	32.7
1	RIDE	1	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	42.7	44.6	40.6
4	ZETTIE	4	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	58	48	33.8	45.1	41.1
3	FLIRTIN AGAIN	3	5/1	Trailer	0	0	31.3	2.8	0.0
7	PROMISED OATH	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	50	18	85.3	22.8	11.8
6	LUCKIE GOLDIE	6	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	52	40	28.0	28.0	18.0
5	E. L.'S LEGACY	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	15.9	15.9	3.9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2025, 07:20 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Optional Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 96

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR PENNSYLVANIA BRED OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 31 ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 GIFT OF GAB 4/1
# 1 SHOSHANAH 3/1
# 6 MYSTIC SEAPORT 8/5

I've got to go with GIFT OF GAB. Boasts reliable Equibase Speed Figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of animals. Stettinius has this mare racing well and is a very good pick based on the decent Speed Figures put up in sprint races recently. Respectable pick to take this race going in a turf sprint. SHOSHANAH - Has formidable early pace and will probably fare solidly versus this group. Posted a decent speed figure last time out. MYSTIC SEAPORT - She must be given a shot given the respectable speed figures. This pony enters today's race on Lasix.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2025, 07:20 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race #7 - Post: 9:49pm - Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,800 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#3 JUBASLILBALLERINA (ML=6/1)
#2 WYNSOME CAT (ML=1/1)
#5 SHERUNSTHISTOWN (ML=3/1)

JUBASLILBALLERINA - This mare has higher odds on the morning line than the other entrant from the stable of Sigler. Better beware of this angle. Shows a classic conditioning maneuver. Routing today after two sprint races. Racing over a familiar track, where she has won multiple times before, I have to put this horse at the top of my list of top contenders. Horse has improved at least two speed fig points in last two races. I look for that positive trend to continue in this race. WYNSOME CAT - This pony coming off a sharp effort in the last month is a serious competitor in my humble opinion. This rider/handler duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +167. The recent bullet 48.2 work should put this filly on track for today's race. SHERUNSTHISTOWN - This filly is very reliable, frequently finishing in the money. I am keen on that latest effort on July 11th at Charles Town where she ran third.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 NO DENYING DENIS (ML=9/2), #6 NOTIPTONI (ML=8/1),

NO DENYING DENIS - You can't keep making excuses for a campaigner that just doesn't win. Don't play her. Don't feel this steed will do much running in today's event. That last speed rating was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's class figure. This mare is always around, but just doesn't finish on top. Difficult to play her on the win end. NOTIPTONI - I cannot play this habitual non-winner. Gets the job completed once in a while. When checking today's class rating, she will have to garner a better speed rating than last time out to compete in this dirt route.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 JUBASLILBALLERINA to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2025, 07:20 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 82

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 31, 2025 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JULY 31, 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 30, 2025 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 SEEHOSS 12/1
# 10 GRANADA FLAVOR 6/1
# 9 CLASSIC BET 3/1

SEEHOSS is my selection especially at a long price. GRANADA FLAVOR - Has been racing quite well and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. Has to be considered here on the basis of the numbers in the speed realm alone. CLASSIC BET - This gelding obviously likes the distance, going 1 for 6 in his races recently. Will most likely compete very well in the early pace clash which bodes well with this field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2025, 07:20 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Hawthorne - Race #5 - Post: 4:39pm - Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#6 MISTY SUNDAY (ML=30/1)
#3 WILDWOOD ADIOS (ML=7/2)
#9 SAFECRACKER SUE (ML=10/1)
#5 BABE IN THE WOODS (ML=10/1)

MISTY SUNDAY - I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a come back. Always watch out for the longer priced equine when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. It is my opinion that fillys run better the 2nd time they get Lasix. Alonso puts this filly on it for the 2nd time today, so give this one a look. WILDWOOD ADIOS - Owns the highest Equibase speed fig on the turf at this distance. I have to like this filly's winning probability at the shorter distance. SAFECRACKER SUE - Forgive the out of the top three finish on the off track in the last race. On a fast track, has a good chance right here in this race. BABE IN THE WOODS - Ran last out against a high class rated field at Hawthorne. The move to a lower level should suit her well. The morning line odds on this filly are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of handler Haran. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a comeback.

Vulnerable Contenders: #13 BALLYBAY BEAUTY (ML=3/1), #8 GEORGIA ON E'SMIND (ML=9/2), #12 ROSE'S WISH (ML=6/1),

BALLYBAY BEAUTY - Any horse coming out of a route contest should show some zip to tangle with the sprinters. Let me give you a hint. For the most part, don't play a maiden breaker out of a maiden claimer next time out. GEORGIA ON E'SMIND - You think this horse is going to win just because she's always close. Just doesn't win frequently. Garnered a quite unimpressive speed figure last time out in a $10,000 Claiming race on July 24th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that number. ROSE'S WISH - In the last affair this runner finished fifth. Doesn't look good for her chances this time. Last fig of 70 may not be valid since it was on the soft turf. If you keep betting these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disillusioned often.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - WILDWOOD ADIOS - This filly has the top speed figure last race with a very good 79. She is the top bet here.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #6 MISTY SUNDAY to win if you can get odds of 9/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

Thursday 7/31/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 7/31/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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