Saturday 8/2/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-30-2025, 10:13 AM

Fun in the Sun: 2020 Champ Back on Top; More Sar, Dmr Saturday

July 30, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

Robert Rosen, winner of the 2020 Xpressbet ‘Fun in the Sun’ handicapping tournament, led all players during Week 2 of this season’s contest and earned a return berth into the $10,000-added Final Table on September 1. No player has conquered the final table twice.

Rosen led the way last Saturday with a $216.50 mutuel total on his 10 total contest plays at Saratoga and Del Mar. He earned the $1,018.50 weekly top prize. Craig Kaufman was second ($206.50, earned $424.38 in prizes) and Christopher Cupples was third ($191.50, earned $254.63 in prizes). Among the top-5, which all earned Final Table berths, were Thomas Coffey ($161.00) and Dennis Desenberg ($159.50).

Fun in the Sun challenges bettors to make $10 Win bets on 5 specified contest races each at Saratoga (last 5 races on the card) and Del Mar (first 5 races on the card). Players compete each week for cash prizes, plus a coveted seat at the $10,000-added Final Table on Labor Day.

Last season, Gordon Maruya was the runaway winner of the $15,782 final table in the FITS competition and bagged $8,680 in prize money. It was Maruya’s third final table appearance (also qualifying in 2021 and 2023).
The Final Table format was created in 2020 and its winners have included Robert Rosen (2020), Wayne Tam (2021), Kevin Saunders (2022), Joe Tambasco (2023) and Gordon Maruya (2024).

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2025 Tournament Dates

Saturday, July 19, 26
Saturday, August 2, 9, 16, 23, 30
Monday, September 1 (Final Table)

Buy-In

$125 Buy-In per week, split between $100 Bankroll + $25 Entry Fee

How to Play

Tournament consists of the last five (5) races each Saturday at Saratoga and the first five (5) races each Saturday at Del Mar
Players must make a $10 Win bet on one (1) horse in each race via the Contest Wagerpad

Weekly Prize Pool

70% of Entry Fees are paid out each week as the Weekly Prize Pool

Weekly Prizes

Top Five (5) finishers each week automatically qualify for the Final Table
1st Place Finisher – 60% of Weekly Prize Pool + Final Table Seat
2nd Place Finisher – 25% of Weekly Prize Pool + Final Table Seat
3rd Place Finisher – 15% of Weekly Prize Pool + Final Table Seat
4th Place Finisher – Final Table Seat
5th Place Finisher – Final Table Seat

Final Table Prizes

30% of Entry Fees carried over to the Final Table
$10,000-added prize pool courtesy of Xpressbet
1st Place Finisher: 55% of Final Table Prize Pool
2nd Place Finisher: 25% of Final Table Prize Pool
3rd Place Finisher: 10% of Final Table Prize Pool
4th Place Finisher: 5% of Final Table Prize Pool
5th Place Finisher: 5% of Final Table Prize Pool

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-30-2025, 10:14 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saturday’s Hambletonian at The Big M

July 29, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

Harness racing’s most prestigious mile will be renewed Saturday at The Meadowlands with the historic 100th edition of the Hambletonian. The $1 million classic for 3-year-old trotters tops a card that includes the $500,000 Hambletonian Oaks and the $260,000 Cane Pace. The Hambo field was set July 26 at The Big M when a trio of eliminations provided berths to the top-3 finishers as well as the fourth-place finisher with the highest career earnings.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet be sure to opt in and take part in Saturday’s Bet $150, Get $20 promotion for the card at The Meadowlands.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Hambletonian (Race 12), which has a post time of 4:47 pm ET:

#1-MESHUGGAH: Fourth-place finisher in the first of three eliminations earned his way here via the lifetime earnings tie-breaker. Bjorn Goop drives for ever-present trainer Marcus Melander at 20-1 odds in the morning line. Melander has 4 finalists in search of his first Hambletonian.

#2-SUPER CHAPTER: Rolls into the final off 5 straight wins, including a 1:51.1 score in the second elimination. One of those victories came to open the trotting Triple Crown in the Yonkers Trot. Marcus Melander sends out the 5-2 morning line favorite among a fleet of 4 finalists. Super Chapter already has bagged more than $840,000. Driver Dexter Dunn will wait until after final changes to decide between this one and Maryland. Yannick Gingras – who guided Karl to last year’s Hambo title – will have the other drive. Super Chapter is out of 2014 Hambletonian Oaks winner Lifetime Pursuit.

#3 EMOTICON LEGACY-: Winner of the first Hambo elimination in 1:51.4 as the favorite, holding off an onslaught of late challenges by a nose. He’s won 3 straight for Luc Blais, including a Canadian record 1:50.2 at Mohawk in the Goodtimes. Blais found Hambletonian success in 2019 with Forbidden Trade. Louis-Philippe Roy drives the 4-1 morning line third choice who has won 8 of 11 overall and just under $460,000.

#4-MARYLAND: The 2024 Champion 2-Year-Old Trotter hasn’t won yet at age 3 (second in all 4 starts), but came up just a nose short in his Hambo elimination 3 bid vs. Nordic Catcher S. Dexter Dunn, in search of his first Hambo-winning drive, will wait until after final changes to decide between this one and Super Chapter – both Marcus Melander trainees. Yannick Gingras – who guided Karl to last year’s Hambo title – will have the other drive.

#5-MAXIMUS MEARAS S: Runner-up to Super Chapter in the second Hambo elimination, beaten 1-3/4 lengths by the final’s morning line favorite. Three-time Hambo winner Scott Zeron (2016, 2016, 2023) drives and Lucas Wallin trains at 6-1 morning line odds.

#6-NORDIC CATCHER S: Third and final elimination winner took them coast-to-coast from the rail in a lifetime-best 1:50.3, fastest of the elims, and paid $23.80. Trainer-Driver Ake Svanstedt will be back in the bike for the 9-2 fourth choice in the morning line. Svanstedt won this race in 2017 (Perfect Spirit) and 2021 (Captain Corey), driving both as well.

#7-GAP KRONOS S: Third-place finisher in the second elimination behind Super Chapter and Maximus Mearas S. Tim Tetrick takes over for Yannick Gingras in the bike of this Ake Svanstedt trainee who is 20-1 in the morning line. Svanstedt won this race in 2017 (Perfect Spirit) and 2021 (Captain Corey), driving both as well.

#8-BLANK: Third-place finisher in the first elimination behind Emoticon Legacy and Greenma. Andy McCarthy takes the return drive for Marcus Melander at 25-1 morning line odds.

#9-GREENMA: Rallying runner-up by a nose in the first elimination to Emoticon Legacy. Trond Smedshammer drives and trains this 25-1 morning line proposition. He won the 2004 Hambletonian pulling double duty with Windsong’s Legacy.

#10-GO DOG GO: Disappointing third as the 4-5 favorite in the third Hambo elimination, unable to follow up on his Stanley Dancer Memorial victory. Todd McCarthy – who piloted Cool Papa Bell to victory here in 2022 – drives the Carter Pinske trainee, who is lined at 10-1 odds. McCarthy’s victory on Cool Papa Bell produced a Hambo-record $106 payout.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-31-2025, 07:18 AM

Race of the Week: Saturday's Whitney at Saratoga

July 30, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Saratoga's top race for Breeders' Cup Classic hopefuls brings together a star-studded field on Saturday for the $1 million Whitney. The race has been run for nearly a century, and only 3 horses have won it on multiple occasions: Discovery, Kelso and Commentator. That could change Saturday when 2023 winner White Abarrio looks for a second Whitney trophy, but the '23 Breeders' Cup Classic winner has no less than the '24 Classic 1-2 finishers in his path, Sierra Leone and Fierceness. The Whitney is 1 of 5 graded stakes on a card that has 3 other Grade 1s, and goes as Race 11.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet be sure to take advantage of the $5,000 late pick 4 and pick 5 Hit & Split promoitions for Saratoga on Saturday ($2,500 each sequence).

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners abound including WHITE ABARRIO, FIERCENESS, SIERRA LEONE, MINDFRAME and HIGHLAND FALLS. Both SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING and POST TIME are Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed. This is the cream of the crop.

Pace:
Longshot MAMA'S GOLD may show the proverbial cheap speed, while pace-pressers like MINDFRAME (if he goes), CONTRARY THINKING (potential rabbit), FIERCENESS, SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING, HIGHLAND FALLS and WHITE ABARRIO won't want to be too far out of it. The pace looks moderate to above average, but not fast, for 9 furlongs at this class level.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-MINDFRAME: Expecting to scratch barring a defection from Todd Pletcher stablemate Fierceness, he's an obvious leading contender if they opt to run him. Wins in the Gulfstream Mile, Churchill Downs Stakes and 2-turn Stephen Foster have him 3-3 and in the Horse of the Year mix. Pletcher is a 4-time winner of this race and this is the horse to beat if he runs, having an advantage from the rail over 9 furlongs at hte Spa.

#2-SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING: Press and fade fifth in this race last year against an overall much weaker field than this, he's been exposed at the highest levels as just short of the best over the years. Hot-riding Jose Ortiz and what could be a rail trip help his cause, but more than a minor placing would be a big achievement.

#3-HIGHLAND FALLS: 1-turn allowance win at Aqueduct is the lone start this year for the 2024 Jockey Club Gold Cup winner over this track. His second-off-the-layoff form isn't obvious in his form, but he did regress slightly from his debut to his second start. Brad Cox won this race in 2021 with Knicks Go. Flavien Prat jumps to ride Sierra Leone; capable Luis Saez takes over the mount.

#4-MAMA'S GOLD: New York-bred restricted stakes winner is 0-3 over the Saratoga track and should factor only in the pace of the Whitney. Rajiv Maragh won this race in 2011 with Tizway, but this would be an epic heist if successful on a horse 0-4 this year.

#5-SIERRA LEONE: Placed locally last year in the Belmont, Jim Dandy and Travers, the consistent closer has reached the wire first only once in his last 7 starts. You know he'll finish, but can he get over the top like he did at 10F last year in the Breeders' Cup at Del Mar? His Stephen Foster second was a step in the right direction after a puzzling 4-year-old return at Fair Grounds. No way to count him out, but tough to trust without other wagering support.

#6-DISARM: Underachiever has a couple of allowance wins with Lasix on his ledger that is surrounded by promising, but short-of-delivery, efforts in major stakes. He's 1-for-5 at the Spa and hasn't had much more lucky paired with Joel Rosario, as he will be Saturday. Rosario has a pair of Whitney wins, while trainer Steve Asmussen won this in 2017 with the great Gun Runner, Disarm's sire.

#7-WHITE ABARRIO: His 2023 whirlwind Whitney-Breeders' Cup Classic double when transferred to Rick Dutrow looked like an abberation until he finally reproduced that stardom for Saffie Joseph Jr. in January's Pegasus World Cup. A bumpy ride in the Met Mile over a sloppy track and out of the Wilson Chute probably can be forgiven. His July 15 workout indicates he's sharpened. Irad Ortiz Jr. is back in his regular perch and seeks a record-tying fifth Whitney win, which would match Pat Day and Jerry Bailey's race record.

#8-CONTRARY THINKING: Aqueduct allowance winner in June has never run beyond a mile and is entered as a rabbit for stablemate Sierra Leone. Well-bred Into Mischief-Valadorna colt (a half-brother to Preakness fourth Tuscan Gold) will have his stakes day, but not likely this Saturday.

#9-FIERCENESS: Saratoga specialist debuted a winner here in 2023, won the Jim Dandy and Travers locally in 2024 and returned last month for a second-place effort in the Met Mile to recently retired sprinter Raging Torrent. He's 3-for-4 (with a second) at the Spa, while the rest of this field is 3-for-20 combined. Advantage: Fierceness. Trainer Todd Pletcher's 4 Whitney wins, most recently 2022 with Life Is Good, are second only to John Gaver Sr.'s 5 wins in the 1940s and '50s. John Velazquez has won this race 4 times, 3 of them with Pletcher, and can tie Pat Day and Jerry Bailey's Whitney record of 5 career scores.

#10-POST TIME: Late-running mile specialist makes his third straight 2-turn start at 9 furlongs while stepping up in class. Maryland's premier Thoroughbred was not overmatched here a year ago when third in the Whitney, but had a ground-saving trip against a decidedly weaker field. He's my favorite horse in training, but this lineup, distance, pace scenario and post are legitimate barriers to backing beyond a minor award. He'll give his best effort; he always does.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
FIERCENESS loves Saratoga and is 9-11 in the trifecta lifetime.

Best Longshot Contender:
None projected in the exacta mix, but deep exotics could do worse than POST TIME's 18-for-18 career mark in the top-3.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$80 exacta FIERCENESS over WHITE ABARRIO. $20 exacta WHITE ABARRIO over FIERCENESS.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-01-2025, 06:44 AM

Scott Shapiro: Saratoga's Whitney Saturday Hit & Split Picks

July 31, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

Back by popular demand for the massive day of stakes action is yet another $5000 Hit & Split! This time it is Whitney Day at Saratoga where 1/ST BET and Xpressbet will offer up a free $2500 bonus for the late Pick 5 sequence that kicks off with the Saratoga Derby (Race 9) and another $2500 for the late Pick 4 that begins with the Test (Race 10). The big card features Fierceness and Sierra Leone in the main event and plenty of other top-tier runners in the supporting Grade 1s. Let’s dive in.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 9: Saratoga Derby (G1)
Grade: C
Main Ticket: 7 Hotazhell
Backups: 9 World Beater; 5 Test Score

Forecast: I lack creativity in this 1 3/16-mile excursion for 3YOs over the lawn where European import #7 Hotazhell looks like the clear one to beat. The Jessica Harrington trainee was empty late against top flight competition in the Coral Eclipse (G1) last month, but was 25-1 in a 6-horse field. He faces a legitimate group, but it is still a decrease in competition. #5 Test Score was good to me last out in the Belmont Derby (G1) and is the best American hope. I am concerned though with regression since trainer Graham Motion said this was not originally part of the plan. #9 World Beater was beaten handily last out by Test Score, but still posted a career best runner-up effort in defeat. With an outside draw, do not be surprised if jockey Jaime Torres rides this colt aggressively given the lack of early zip signed on.

Race 10: Test (G1)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5 Me and Molly McGee; 6 Echo Sound
Backups: 1 Ragtime

Forecast: It is hard to make a great case against 9-5-ML favorite in this $500k 7-furlong affair for 3YO fillies. The daughter of Echo Town won on debut for a barn that does not strive to get first out victories and has followed up with strong performance after strong performance. She showed an affinity for this racetrack in the Victory Ride (G3), draws favorably for her first Grade 1 try, and is a must use. That said, I have been waiting to take a swing with #5 Me and Molly McGee. This Vekoma filly has been hammered at the windows in all three starts in Kentucky and has delivered. She lost her debut at Keeneland by less than a length to a runner that had two starts under her belt before rattling off two wins going away at Churchill Downs. She is the speed of the speed. Hopefully, jockey Frankie Dettori can get her out of the gate in good order and have enough left late to spring the upset.

Race 11: Whitney (G1)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7 White Abarrio; 9 Fierceness
Backups: None

Forecast: One of the biggest races of the year for older handicap horses drew a strong field even with the likely defect of #1 Mindframe. #9 Fierceness is a very fast racehorse. In the past, I have sided against the City of Light colt, especially when down on the inside, but he drew perfectly for his first start since failing as the chalk in the Met Mile (G1). He probably should have won that race, but it is also easy to forgive since it was out of the Wilson chute over an off track. In the end, this is a true two-turn horse who chased a legitimate sprinter in Raging Torrent. He might get over bet, but his chances are impossible to deny.

The only horse I can see beating Fierceness is #7 White Abarrio. The $7M earner also exits the Met Mile where it just was not his day chasing the pace over the sloppy surface. The son of Race Day has bounced back from poor efforts in the past and won this event in 2023 in a romp. He is the kind of horse that might offer the best value in the Win pool, but also has a chance to throw in another clunker. I would not take a head to head against Sierra Leone, but I much prefer his chances to get to the wire first.

Race 12:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 12 Leslie’s Humor; 4 Upon a Star; 3 La Salvadorena
Backups: 1 Tales of The Heart

Forecast: #3 La Salvadorena is a deserving 3-1-ML favorite in her third start off the layoff for trainer Ray Handal. She has been a bit camera shy thus far earning just 1 win and 4 seconds in 7 career starts, but has been up against it from a race shape perspective in both of her efforts of 2025. If she gets an honest pace, she could be tough to hold off. I do prefer the value though of #4 Upon a Star and #12 Leslie’s Humor. Upon a Star was purchased after her last race at the FTK Horses of Racing Age sale and is moved right to the lawn by new trainer Mike Maker. She has influences on the bottom side to suggest the surface switch could lead to a move forward and is dangerous on the front end. Leslie’s Humor makes her first start since entering the Chad Brown barn. The Kantharos filly has not raced since last October, but Brown sports a strong 8 for 32-record with a $2.29 ROI over the last 5 years in turf sprints off 180+ day layoffs. Expect her to be ready to roll off the bench.

Race 13:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7 Twolatebabydoll; 5 Via Vento; 9 Selfless
Backups: 2 Peak Hype

Forecast: The card concludes with a wide-open MSW for the ladies over the Inner Turf. I give trainer Phil Antonacci runners upset chances, but like #7 Twolatebabydoll most. The Al Stall Jr. trainee makes her third start off the bench after a good second going 9-furlongs over the Churchill Downs turf. The runner-up effort was even better than it appears on paper since she was bottled up at one point before finding clear sailing late. She gets a rider upgrade to Ricardo Santana Jr. and meets a field she should handle with a move forward. Hopefully she sticks around that 6-1-ML offering.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-02-2025, 05:50 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Hambletonian Day Late Pick 4 Analysis

August 2, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

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The 100th Edition of the $1,000,000 Hambletonian is the prestigious headliner of the 16-race card at the Meadowlands. The entire lineup is loaded with talent and big purses. The Hambo rolls in Race 12 and kicks-off the 0.50 Late Pick 4. The sequence has a $100,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selection below are based on a fast track.

Race 12 (4:47 PM EDT)

4-Maryland (3-1)-This year the son of Chapter 7 has second-itis but comes off a sharp effort in its Elimination. The connections were probably happy with the result, finishing a close 2nd and not going a taxing mile. Didn't earn over $1.2 million last year with mirrors and has 3 wins and 3 second place finishes in 7 starts at M1. This was Dexter Dunn's choice over Super Chapter the program chalk and looks ready to take its 1st picture of the year at a most opportune time.
5-Maximus Mearas S (6-1)-Rallied in a big way in its Elim and finished the mile with a .26 last panel. Scott Zeron steers for trainer Lucas Wallin and this colt has made only 2 starts this season, which is the least in the field. Will look for a more aggressive steer with 2 races under its belt and has a pilot who is trying for a Hambo Grand Slam.
6-Nordic Catcher S (9/2)-In each of the 4 races this year the team Svanstedt pupil has gone faster. In its Elim went gate to wire and stood tall down the lane. The 150.3 was a new mark, also the fastest Elimination time on the card. Best to respect, could win with another top effort and doesn't need to lead every step of the way.

Race 13 (5:34 PM EDT)

1-Diabolic Hill (9/5)-The Annie Stoebe trainee has a perfect 3-0 record this season and won handily last week from the 10-hole. Has been the chalk in all 3 outings and will be a small price once again. Many will single and does deserve the respect. But it won't get as much respect from its foes as last week. So, will use one more that might be able to catch the speed down the lane.
9-I'm Kronos S (6-1)-The Walner 2-year-old is looking for its 1st win of the season but has hit the board in both starts. Tim Tetrick takes over for Dexter Dunn and will rely on a sharp steer. If the fractions are spicy and the Svanstedt entry is within striking range at the top of the lane it could be upset time.

Race 14 (6:02 PM EDT)

4-Sabonis (5-1)-Won the Graduate Final and then raced big in the Haughton to just miss leaving from post 11. Came first over last week and was overtaken late by the winner he towed up and another coming from the backfield. This is a tough race, but offers value at the morning line price and only needs a fair trip to be there at the wire.
5-Ken Hanover (3-1)-Ken was going to lose at some point and had its 5-race win streak snapped on 6-12. That loss came with the help of post 9 and getting hung early in the mile. Should be more than odds-on today and will look for a rebound.

Race 14 (6:29 PM EDT)

5-Sylvia Hanover (8/5)-Sylvia has been very sharp since shipping in from Mohawk. Took advantage of some hot fractions at Plainridge in last to win. But her burst down the lane looked like a champion mare who has banked over $2 million. Looking for another big effort and to double up at a short price.

$2 Late Pick 4

4,5,6/1,9/4,5/5
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-02-2025, 05:51 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #7

#1 Oakley's Smile	He'll be a decent price again here, and I wonder if a slightly easier run of things might help him get in the frame while overlooked. Cozy inside trip could be waiting. Why not?
#4 Jack Fish	He flashed good pace before settling for second in the Los Al debut, and that kind of speed is going to keep him in the mix throughout while trying turf. Tough if it all transfers.
#8 Glorious Life	Perfect spying run could be in the cards for him from here, but I'm still just a little shy about the way he has gone one-paced in the final yards of his starts.
Race Summary	Oakley's Smile comes out of a couple spots I liked a little bit, and I could see him getting a really nice run of things from the fence if he can relax just a bit better.

Del Mar - Race #10

#7 Kopion	She established herself as one of the best distaff sprinters in the country, and they'll give her another chance around two turns today. Wonder if she's just a lot better now than the last time she tried a route?
#1 Seismic Beauty	Nothing wrong with the way she has punched home in the last couple scores, but there are a couple of other new forward faces to deal with this time around, and her best game has come on the engine. Respect, but wonder if the race flow does her in?
#2 Royal Spa	She might find a decent spot while tucked in on the fence behind the quicker players, and she's probably a good fit with this crew if you try to use Thorpedo Anna as the measuring stick.
Race Summary	Kopion has been really good this year and deserves another chance going long. Could see her finding a perfect, patient, first-over trip while just stacked outside a couple more committed types.

Del Mar - Race #11

#6 Prince Dolce	His turf form has been solid enough, and he's worth a look while trying a turf route outside of stakes company for the first time. Dangerous if he's ready.
#12 Miles Finch	Reliable type has run OK going long before, but she has also been a bit flat late in both of those tries. She might have to use just a touch of pace to find a spot from out here. One of the ones, but think she needs a few things to go her way today.
#1 Winning Patriot	Think he might still have some upside after showing a bit of talent through two starts, and he's meeting a lot of horses who are pretty established at this point. Could be fun at a midrange price.
Race Summary	#13 Brazenly is a must-use on vertical plays here with reliable underneath form, but Prince Dolce has the most appeal for me. He can probably work out a good spying trip while returning fresh on the drop.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-02-2025, 05:51 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#2 BRAGGADOCIOUS (7-2)	Consistent router despite 0-7 mark at distance, gets ideal set-up.
#6 KERNESS (7-5)	Ness class dropper returns off layoff, lone win in last 2 years was in four-horse field.
#7 FUNKENSTEIN (8-1)	Rallied for minor awards in half of starts for this barn going a route of ground.
Race Summary	BRAGGADOCIOUS exited a triple ‘key’ race at Tampa Bay Downs and won in his Delaware Park debut. He trailed after a bumpy start in a slow-paced starter allowance, but gets plenty of pace to rally into on the class drop today. Bet to win and place and play 2-6 and 2-7 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #2

#8 C. C. FOXII (4-1)	Drops, can stalk and pounce, company lines dotted with next-out winners.
#6 SETH’S WAR SONG (7-2)	Beaten fave off 7-month layoff at Parx when last seen in May.
#2 RAMA BAMA LANA (5-2)	DQ’d from wire-to-wire debut upset, raced far back in latest.
Race Summary	C.C. FOXII ‘improved’ in a fast-paced 5F turf-to-dirt sprint that produced a 2-to-5 follow-up winner in a $25,000 maiden claimer. She runs for the cheapest tag of her career and should sit an ideal stalking trip from a favorable post. Bet to win and place.

Delaware Park - Race #6

#6 MADDIE TEN (3-1)	Well-spotted for breakthrough win at 6F if she duplicates latest at 5-1/2F.
#1 SIMMERING (12-1)	Has speed and rail and four seconds in her last seven starts, big price attached.
#8 BOUND BY DESTINY (4-1)	Plagued by slow starts, sheds 7 pounds on the class drop.
Race Summary	MADDIE TEN, dismissed at 6-1 odds or less seven times this year, rewarded her loyal backers with an easy win at the $7,500 level. She remained eligible for this race as the only entrant to qualify under the ‘non winners of 4’ condition. Bet to win and place and play a 1,6/1, 6, 8/ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-02-2025, 05:53 AM

Del Mar Hotlist - August 2

Aug. 01, 2025

Saturday, Aug. 2, 2025
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watchB: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (7) Hypergamy debuts for O’Neill and seems ready for a big effort. (9) Copper Luna put In a bullet work for this. (6) Radiant View should be a factor here. (3) South Bay deserves a look in this spot. Betting strategy:7 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-6-7-9.
3rd race – (1) Dicey Mo Chara gets some class relief here and looks best. (6) British Isles could work out a winning trip. (7) Packs a Wahlop will welcome a return to turf. (5) Mondego could be a late factor.Betting strategy:1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-7.
5th race – (6) Guy Named Joe drops into a claimer and should prove best. (1) Mighty Kai can complete the exacta. (9) Mongolian Altai fits in nicely here. (5) Spearfish may wake up here. Betting strategy:6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-9.
7th race – (2) Nap could be tough to catch at this distance. (1) Oakley’s Smile takes the blinkers off and is worth a look. (4) Jack Fish may do swimmingly on turf. (3) Tiger Smiling could be ready for a solid debut. Betting strategy:2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-4.
10th race – (1) Seismic Beauty should lead throughout from the rail. (2) Royal Spa shapes up as the main rival. (7) Kopion cannot be ignored here. (5) Richi is dangerous on her best try. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-5-7.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-02-2025, 05:53 AM

Saratoga Hotlist - August 2

Aug. 01, 2025

Saturday, August 2, 2025 at Saratoga
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
4^thrace [OC 75k/N2X, 5 ? F TURF] – (8) Bergen (A) stumbled out of the gate and was probably best in that race but finished third. (1) Twisted Filigree returned from a winter layoff earlier in the month to win at this same condition by a nose with a front-end effort. (4) Clean the Air ships up from Kentucky after a second in a Keeneland allowance and then a win in a turf sprint in a second-level allowance like this one. (10) Final Verdict has a pair of thirds at this condition in 2025.
7^th race [OC 75k/N2X, 7F] – (11) Creditworthy (A) was a winner moving from turf to dirt in a very fast time by more than two lengths. (5) Dilger was third in the Carter (G2) at Aqueduct in April and then tried the Big Drama at Gulfstream Park. (9) Awesome Ruta moved from the Salvator mile (G3) to an allowance at Colonial Downs and was second by a nose. (10) Pentathlon was a first-level allowance last time out at the June Saratoga meeting.
8^thrace[Fourstardave (G1), 1 mi TURF] – (10) Neat (A) checked and swerved to avoid a fallen horse and now had two bad trips in a row. (8) Deterministic won 4 out of his last 6 races and those were all in graded stakes. He has a chance to get another front-end victory. (1) Cugino is a late runner that could take advantage if the early pace goes too fast. Irad Ortiz stays on board. (3) Johannesships from California with eight wins from 11 starts and must be respected.
11^thrace[Whitney (G1), 1 1/8 mi] – (9) Fierceness loves Saratoga where he won the Travers (G1) and the Jim Dandy (G2) last year and won both of his starts at the nine-furlong distance. (5) Sierra Leonewon the Breeders’ Cup Classic and will meet the top pick for the fifth time with two wins to each. (10)Post Time raced 18 times and never finished worse than third. Last year he was third in the Whitney. (3) Highland Falls was an impressive victor of the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and would also benefit from a faster pace.
Best bets: Creditworthy (7^th); Fierceness (11^th). Best value:Bergen (4^th); Neat (8^th).
@NYHotList Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 7-9 and includes the Fourstardave (G1) and the Saratoga Derby (G1). ? 5, 9, 10, 11 with 8, 10 with 5, 7 = $16.

No.	Name	Letter last race	Today's Race	Comments
(8)	Bergen	A on 6/28	4	Stumbled out of the gate and could only get third.
(11)	Creditworthy	A on 6/15	7	Moved from turf to dirt to be a fast winner.
(10)	Neat	A on 7/5	8	Checked and swerved to avoid a fallen horse.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-02-2025, 05:54 AM

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | August 2, 2025

Jul. 31, 2025

Race 8 at Saratoga | Saturday August 2 | Post Time 3:52 PM Eastern
Fourstardave Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $750,000 | One Mile on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward
Top Contenders to win: Think Big (4), Deterministic (8), Johannes (3)
For use on some exacta tickets: Spirit of St Louis (7)
Analysis and win contenders:
In a top Grade 1 mile with a lot of graded stakes winners, true milers (who excel at this distance on grass) and horses who have proven themselves over the turf, particularly the inner turf course at Saratoga, I will start with Think Big (4), who opens at 6 to 1, the same odds he went to post at when winning the grade 3 Kelso Stakes on this course and at this distance four weeks ago. Think Big was a bit overlooked that day as he had finished seventh in the Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes four weeks prior to that, BUT he had won a pair of Grade 2 stakes in a row in April and May, including the Turf Sprint on Kentucky Derby day as the 2 to 1 favorite. Those factors made Think Big my top pick for the Keeneland Select race of the day on June 5, and hopefully many of you who read the analysis benefited nicely.
Now, Think Big does step up in class from that grade 3 race one month ago into grade 1, but he’s already a multiple grade 2 winner on turf, and he really showed a liking for the Inner Turf in the Kelso where he ran the last quarter mile in 22.4 seconds, after having to pause in traffic with three-eighths of a mile to run. Some may be concerned that Jose Ortiz, who rode Think Big in the Kelso, appears to choose My Boy Prince (2) for this race, who he rode just once previously, to a ninth-place finish in a stakes race last October. Luis Saez gets the mount on Think Big although never having ridden him before and only riding for trainer Michael Stidham two times going back to January 1 or 2024. Neither factor has me concerned at all, because Saez HAS WON THE FOURSTARDAVE FOUR TIMES IN THE PAST 10 years, including back-to-back wins aboard Casa Creed in 2022 and 2023. Simply put, if Think Big repeats his Kelso effort, he can post the upset at about the same 6 to 1 odds as we were rewarded with four weeks ago.
Deterministic (8) has won back-to-back graded stakes the same way Think Big did in April and May. Deterministic won the Grade 2 Fort Marcy Stakes in May by four lengths as the 2 to 1 favorite then he won the Grade 1 Manhattan on the Inner Turf at Saratoga three weeks ago. He won both when leading from start to finish and although getting a bit tired at the end of the Manhattan, with his margin shrinking from two lengths to a head over the last eighth of a mile, he still ran the races with a lot of late energy. That being said, Deterministic isn’t a “need the lead” type, as he closed from fourth to second last June and from fifth to win a Grade 3 stakes last September AND November. It must also be noted that Far Bridge, the third-place finisher in the Manhattan, returned to win the Grade 3 Bowling Green Stakes last weekend to flatter Deterministic. There aren’t any horses which prefer running on the lead in this field except Deterministic, so I expect jockey Kendrick Carmouche, who is two for two aboard the colt, to put him on the lead. Cutting back from one mile and one-eighth benefits Deterministic as well, so he should be strongly respected as a contender to win this race.
It's an odds day when I am placing a horse as good as Johannes (3) on a contender list, but here we are. Johannes returned from an 11 month layoff last April and won as if he’d never been away, winning the first of five straight graded stakes races, three at this one-mile distance. His only loss last year came when he missed by three-quarters of a length in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last November, then he returned to the winner’s circle to end his 2024 campaign with a sharp win on December 26 in the Grade 2 San Gabriel Stakes. Having won at a mile last year after 11 months off, there’s little doubt Johannes will fire off the seven-month layoff he’s returning from in the Fourstardave. However, he meets a very sharp bunch of proven Grade 1 and 2 stakes winners unlike the field he faced in the Grade 3 American Stakes last April, so although he can win, he’s no standout.
Spirit of St Louis (7) has won three of four tries at this mile turf trip, and he’s a Grade 1 stakes winner, having taken the Grade 1 Turf Classic Stakes on Kentucky Derby day under Manny Franco, who rides again and who has been in the saddle for eight of the horse’s 11 career wins. Spirit of St Louis has also run well on the Inner Turf at Saratoga, finishing first or second in three of four races. His worst effort in some time came 24 days ago when he ran sixth from start to finish as the favorite in the Manhattan Stakes, won by Deterministic. However, two of his last three wins have followed poor efforts when fifth and fourth, respectively, before the wins, so there is every reason to believe Spirit of St Louis should be a contender in this field.
Win Bets:
We must take advantage of the fact that although he can win, Johannes (3) isn’t a standout, and therefore the best value lies in betting on Think Big (4) and Deterministic (8), at odds of 3 to 1 or more, with the starting odds on those horses well above that threshold at 6 to 1 and 9 to 2, respectively. Johannes (3) has about the same probability to win, so his “fair odds,” or minimum odds for considering a win bet, are 3 to 1, but he will go to post at lower odds.
I would also consider a win bet on Spirit of St Louis (7) at 5 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Box Think Big (4), Deterministic (8) and Johannes (3).
Box Think Big (4), Deterministic (8), Johannes (3) and Spirit of St Louis (7).
Trifecta:
Box Think Big (4), Deterministic (8), Johannes (3) and Spirit of St Louis (7).