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Dustin Fabian: WV Derby Day Spot Plays for Sunday

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July 31, 2025 | By Dustin Fabian

Sunday is West Virginia Day at Mountaineer, and the day is loaded with two major stakes races, four turf events and healthy field sizes across the board. Weather conditions point to fast and firm conditions on Sunday, and first race post time is 5:00PM ET.

Bettors on Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can take advantage of a 20% Boost on your Win payouts, up to $20 per player.

Here are four horses that caught my eye on the card – they’re horses that I’ll target in the 20% Win Boost and in my multi-race wagers.

Race 2 (5:25PM ET)
My Pick: #1 Tarhe (9/2)

There is plenty of speed signed on for this one-mile turf event, with favorites Couth, Moreau and Great Escape all employing forward styles. Assuming those three stay in the race, I think this is ripe to be won by someone coming from just off, and who better to do it than 3-time turf winner #1 TARHE? Mountaineer’s leading turf rider, Charlie Oliveros (9 wins in 28 starts) is aboard, and they just teamed to win Tarhe’s first local race by nearly six-lengths on July 6.

Race 6 (7:05PM ET)
My Pick: #2 New Age Bad Girl (12/1)

This six-year-old mare is just 5-for-29 lifetime, but take note that she is a perfect 2-for-2 on the Mountaineer sod. She won allowance races over this course last summer – both in blowout fashion – and subsequent tries to get back on the turf on June 8 and June 29 of this year were washed off. Trainer Shane Meyers and jockey Ricardo Feliciano have won at a 40% clip at Mountaineer the last two years (8-for-20).

Race 7 (7:40PM ET) – West Virginia Governor’s Stakes
My Pick: #1 Not This Boy (3/1)

The assumption is that #8 Hit Show, the defending champ of this race and the reigning Dubai World Cup winner, will be extremely well backed in this softer spot. That might leave us a price on #1 NOT THIS BOY for William Cowans and Luis Saez. He’s advantageously drawn on the rail and his early pace should allow him to get a jump on closers like Hit Show. Plus, all the key rivals – Hit Show (#8), Cornishman (#6) and Heroic Move (#9) – are stuck in outside posts, which should afford Saez some early options. The 1 1/16-mile distance should suit him better than his top rivals, as well.

Race 8 (8:15PM ET) – Grade 3 West Virginia Derby
My Pick: #2 East Avenue (8/5)

While I’ll try to beat the favorite in the Governor’s, I’ll side with the favorite in the West Virginia Derby. #2 EAST AVENUE flashed early brilliance as a 2yo, and has rediscovered his top form after forgettable races in the Breeders’ Cup and Risen Star. Beaten just a nose in the Blue Grass in April, he ran a better-than-it-seems 8th in the KY Derby and found his friends while winning the G3 Matt Winn at Churchill in mid-June. I think this was the next spot they picked coming out of the Matt Winn, and they get a little lucky as Chunk of Gold and McAfee, 2nd and 3rd in the Ohio Derby, appear his biggest threats. He is simply a better horse than those two, and should have no problem dispatching them on Sunday.

Good luck on West Virginia Derby Day at ‘The Mountain’!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

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August 3, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

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Northfield Park has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and the sequence will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EDT)

2-Not Today (7-1)-Schillaci trainee gets needed post relief and must prove itself at this level as does almost the entire field. Should benefit with this post draw and looks a suck-around trip out possibility.
8-Alta Engen A (7/2)-From the inside the Kreiser entry would be an odds-on chalk, beat the $30k claimers from post 8 two starts back. This field could be more of a challenge, maybe. But has enough gate speed to land on top and could be a smooth journey away from a picture.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EDT)

3-Cornstar (5-1)-Drew post 3 on 6-29 and beat this kind at 17-1. Broke stride on a sloppy track in last and could offer a solid price here. Needs a close-up seat to win and that can happen when the wings fold.
8-Kildare King (7/2)-Couldn't catch the leader last week and finished 2nd. Was bet down to 6/5 on a sloppy track, and that effort came against this company. Merriman stays aboard, will look for an aggressive steer and will probably be bet down again.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EDT)

2-Pet My Rock (2-1)-Not sure the 2-1 morning line fits but won the last time in this condition. Comes off a sick scratch, but this is a soft bunch. If all systems are go Kurt Sugg could land on the engine and not look back.
7-Easy Cam Wiggle (6-1)-Left from post 9 on 6-23, landed in the pocket and finished 2nd. Now comes back against the same, draws better, and gets a ++ driver change as Merriman takes the lines. In 9 starts for the Beeler barn, Merriman has taken 4 pictures.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EDT)

4-Highland Mowgli (5/2)-The camera-shy Burke entry is only 1-16 this year. But has cashed checks against this kind and better. Gets a ++ driver change in Chris Page and draws well, that could be reason enough to cash the top check tonight.
5-Globe Master (15-1)-Will take a swing for a big price and the 4-year-old tries but has had outside posts in the last 3 races. If Tyler Angus can get off the gate and into a close-up seat good things could happen in a race without a standout.
7-Donato Patriot K (9/2)-Comes off a dominant win against much easier. Has 3 wins this year in 15 races and 2 of those happened at Nfld. This will be a test but can't dismiss against this group. Merriman is between the pipes and when driving for the Wengerd stable he wins 27% of the starts.

$1 Late Pick 4

2,8/3,8/2,7/4,5,7
Total Bet=$24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Del Mar - Race #5

#8 Magical Miss	Debuter isn't meeting a ton of super serious form on paper outside of the filly listed next, so take a look at her ahead of this one the track and tote with an appealing enough pedigree for this short turf trip.
#12 Godavri	She's probably not going to be an appealing price on the board, but she's got an obvious claim on this with a couple of sharp Santa Anita turf sprints under her belt. Should get a great run while keeping tabs on everything throughout. Wouldn't argue with you.
#1 Trickifult	Pace will have to go from the fence here, but I wonder if she has enough upside in the second start back to stick around for a piece of this at a nice price.
Race Summary	Magical Miss is a fresh face in a race where I don't trust a ton of them who have run so far, and the price is likely to get short on Godavri with sharp enough form to be the clear choice.

Del Mar - Race #7

#6 The Padre	He was competitive with some of these last time out, and the race came back well when Game Warrior landed the Oceanside here at 19/1 last month. Seems like he has enough upside to land this.
#3 Freedom's Not Free	Forward player has been very tough since being sent long on the turf, and he can shut off just enough to get a first-over trip if needed. Dangerous.
#4 Artislas	Reliable finisher can get the jump on the deeper threats, and that could put him in a really great spot if the pace can't stay. Spies for at least a share.
Race Summary	I like The Padre's effort last time out, and that should set him up for something even better today in the second start off the break.

Del Mar - Race #11

#2 What's a Good Name	Not totally sold that she's the best one in here, but I think she'll be right on the engine from the start with maybe only the cheaper one inside of her to clear. The others may stack up, but she could be in control most of the way here.
#3 Tapatia Mia	She looked good in the debut when scoring in an early season race at Santa Anita, and I am going to guess that the form from that one will hold up here. Want her on the tickets.
#6 Liberation	She's probably head of the class on paper coming into this, but I wouldn't want to take a short price in what feels like a fun race.
Race Summary	What's a Good Name came forward nicely at second asking to score here a couple weeks back, and I'm hoping an early hustle will let her control this one from the turn.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ellis Park Tip Sheet - August 3

Aug. 02, 2025

Race #1
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 12:50 PM ET Best Bet #6 DE ANS EIGHTY
$50,000.00

Race 1 Starter Optional Claiming

Win	5-2	6	De Ans Eighty	C A Torres
Place	7-2	5	Punchy Girl	K J Asmussen
Show	5-1	3	Arrasou	L Contreras
Wild card	4-1	2	Greek Heiress	J R Leparoux
Alternate 1	6-1	8	Demi	B J Hernandez Jr.
Alternate 2	15-1	7	Angel Kiss	L Machado

Exacta6-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
Trifecta3/5/6 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:19 PM ET
$44,000.00

Race 2 Maiden Optional Claiming

Win	12-1	5	Nanzig	J R Leparoux
Place	6-1	1	High Dollar Dolly	A Concepcion
Show	9-2	3	Riekes	T Gaffalione
Wild card	8-1	4	Firebird Suite	I Moncada
Alternate 1	3-1	7	Dontmindifido	C A Torres
Alternate 2	12-1	6	Command the Stars	G Saez

Exacta5-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
Trifecta1/3/5 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
Race #3
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:48 PM ET
$45,000.00

Race 3 Claiming

Win	6-5	9	Lambo	T Gaffalione
Place	8-1	5	Morunning	L Machado
Show	8-1	2	Forty Love	R Bejarano
Wild card	10-1	7	Galpin Sunday	S E Bermudez
Alternate 1	8-1	10	Troubles Roaring	K J Asmussen
Alternate 2	20-1	1	Guardian	M Gutierrez

Exacta9-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
Trifecta2/5/9 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX
Race #4
Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 02:16 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 4 Maiden Special Weight

Win	8-1	2	Spicy Princess	K J Asmussen
Place	8-1	3	Nonconsecutivetrms	D Sheehy
Show	7-2	10	Infinite Sky	J A Torres
Wild card	6-1	11	Ontology	T Gaffalione
Alternate 1	6-1	6	Resplendence	L Machado
Alternate 2	12-1	13	Betsy	L Machado

Exacta2-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX, 10-11 BOX
Trifecta2/3/10 BOX, 3/10/11 BOX
Race #5
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:44 PM ET Best Bet #4 QUEEN JUNO
$100,000.00

Race 5 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-2	4	Queen Juno	C A Torres
Place	9-2	5	On Time Girl	C J Lanerie
Show	6-1	10	Bourbon Notes	B J Hernandez Jr.
Wild card	12-1	6	Click	A Concepcion
Alternate 1	8-1	15	Amended Dreamer	A Beschizza
Alternate 2	10-1	14	Sway House	C J Lanerie

Exacta4-5 BOX, 5-10 BOX, 10-6 BOX
Trifecta4/5/10 BOX, 5/6/10 BOX
Race #6
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:12 PM ET Best Bet #11 STILETTOS
$104,000.00

Race 6 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	4-1	11	Stilettos	B J Hernandez Jr.
Place	6-1	2	Hillerito	T Gaffalione
Show	6-1	10	Reagans Flame	A Concepcion
Wild card	10-1	7	Miss Arlington	J A Torres
Alternate 1	7-2	1	Tripolina	L Machado
Alternate 2	8-1	4	Blue Squall	C J Lanerie

Exacta11-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX, 10-7 BOX
Trifecta2/10/11 BOX, 2/7/10 BOX
Race #7
Turf 1 1/4 Miles - Post Time: 03:42 PM ET Best Commentary $300,000 TURF CUP STAKES
$300,000.00

Race 7 Stakes

Win	9-5	1	Highway Robber	C A Torres
Place	6-1	9	Dashman	B J Hernandez Jr.
Show	20-1	3	Multitask	R Bejarano
Wild card	12-1	8	Quatrocento	J R Leparoux
Alternate 1	20-1	6	Tapit Shoes	M Gutierrez
Alternate 2	9-2	7	Anglophile	D Cannon

Exacta1-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
Trifecta1/3/9 BOX, 3/8/9 BOX
COMMENTS: HIGHWAY ROBBER is a head away from being undefeated in a trio of Ellis turf starts. DASHMAN tends to fire when coming off of a break like today. MULTITASK is a longshot that finished in the money nine of ten races. QUATROCENTO crushed the competition with the highest last race speed figure.
Race #8
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 04:12 PM ET Best Commentary $250,000 LADIES TURF MILE STAKES
$250,000.00

Race 8 Stakes

Win	5-1	7	Austere	T Gaffalione
Place	5-2	6	Pharoahs Wine	C J Lanerie
Show	6-1	5	Irish Maxima	J A Torres
Wild card	9-2	9	Shes Lookin Lucky	B J Hernandez Jr.
Alternate 1	8-1	3	Waves of Mischief	E Morales
Alternate 2	20-1	8	Sanctify	G Saez

Exacta7-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX
Trifecta5/6/7 BOX, 5/6/9 BOX
COMMENTS: AUSTERE could be at her best making the third up start. PHAROAHS WINE upped her speed figures in the last four starts. IRISH MAXIMA knows how to win with eight in a dozen starts with only one second. SHES LOOKIN LUCKY never missed the money on Ellis grass or at the distance.
Race #9
Turf 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 04:42 PM ET Best Commentary $400,000 PUCKER UP STAKES
$400,000.00

Race 9 Stakes

Win	3-1	3	Destino dOro	L Machado
Place	15-1	2	Drop the Hammer	J A Torres
Show	4-1	10	Hereforagoodtime	T Gaffalione
Wild card	7-2	8	Admit	B J Hernandez Jr.
Alternate 1	9-2	4	Princess Attitude	A Concepcion
Alternate 2	15-1	1	Liam in the Dust	C A Torres

Exacta3-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX, 10-8 BOX
Trifecta2/3/10 BOX, 2/8/10 BOX
COMMENTS: DESTINO D ORO is an excuse by a head a head away from being three for three. DROP THE HAMMER is a longshot that could boom or bust in the second off the sidelines. HEREFORAGOODTIME tied for the highest last race speed figure at this level. ADMIT tries turf for the second time after winning in her first try last out.
Race #10
Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:12 PM ET Best Commentary $250,000 TURF SPRINT STAKES
$250,000.00

Race 10 Stakes

Win	9-2	1	Coppola	B J Hernandez Jr.
Place	5-2	7	Nobals	T Gaffalione
Show	5-1	3	Joe Shiesty	L Machado
Wild card	15-1	2	Mo Stash	E Morales
Alternate 1	15-1	11	Charcoal	M Pedroza Jr.
Alternate 2	30-1	5	Chiseler	C A Emigh

Exacta1-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
Trifecta1/3/7 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Del Mar Tip Sheet - August 3

Aug. 02, 2025

Race #1
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:00 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 1 Maiden Special Weight

Win	8-5	2	Buetane	J J Hernandez
Place	7-2	4	Cactus Charlie	H I Berrios
Show	5-1	6	Charlies Curlin	A Fresu
Wild card	3-1	1	Falcon Jet	M E Smith
Alternate 1	6-1	3	Medici	U Rispoli
Alternate 2	12-1	5	Stark Contrast	K Kimura

Exacta2-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
Trifecta2/4/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:31 PM ET
$81,000.00

Race 2 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	3-5	3	Formula Rossa	A Fresu
Place	6-1	5	Jensco	H I Berrios
Show	8-1	2	So There She Was	J J Hernandez
Wild card	5-1	6	Wishtheyallcouldbe	M Demuro
Alternate 1	6-1	4	Gridlock	K Kimura
Alternate 2	15-1	1	Lucky Burglar	A Morales

Exacta3-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
Trifecta2/3/5 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
Race #3
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 06:02 PM ET Best Bet #6 KEITHING THUNDER
$100,000.00

Race 3 Maiden Special Weight

Win	3-1	6	Keithing Thunder	T Baze
Place	7-2	4	Fix It Quick	K Kimura
Show	5-1	2	Bazooka Charlie	A Fresu
Wild card	6-1	3	Subic Boy	A Espinoza
Alternate 1	8-1	7	Mom Says	H I Berrios
Alternate 2	5-1	5	Zagreus	A Ayuso

Exacta6-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
Trifecta2/4/6 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
Race #4
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 06:33 PM ET Best Bet #3 WHITE MOUNTAIN
$26,000.00

Race 4 Claiming

Win	3-1	3	White Mountain	A Escobedo
Place	12-1	7	True Mantra	A Espinoza
Show	7-2	8	Gentlemens Club	D A Herrera
Wild card	8-1	4	Silver N Black	E A Maldonado
Alternate 1	6-1	1	Fast Service	A Aguilar
Alternate 2	8-1	10	Smiling Capote	K Kimura

Exacta3-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX
Trifecta3/7/8 BOX, 4/7/8 BOX
Race #5
Turf 5 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:03 PM ET
$80,000.00

Race 5 Maiden Special Weight

Win	2-1	12	Godavri	A Fresu
Place	7-2	5	Naturally Blonde	H I Berrios
Show	5-1	14	Fancy Facts	K Kimura
Wild card	4-1	10	Penny Worth	J J Hernandez
Alternate 1	6-1	6	Shes a One of One	K Kimura
Alternate 2	15-1	3	Dont Ask Wy	A Lezcano

Exacta12-5 BOX, 5-14 BOX, 14-10 BOX
Trifecta5/12/14 BOX, 5/10/14 BOX
Race #6
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:33 PM ET
$23,000.00

Race 6 Maiden Special Weight

Win	3-1	11	Fine Tuned	D Cohen
Place	7-2	6	Going Viral	C Herrera
Show	8-1	13	Far Over Loaded	A L Bautista
Wild card	6-1	9	Robarando	A Espinoza
Alternate 1	8-1	8	Crown Prosecutor	G Franco
Alternate 2	5-1	10	Rocksalot	T Baze

Exacta11-6 BOX, 6-13 BOX, 13-9 BOX
Trifecta6/11/13 BOX, 6/9/13 BOX
Race #7
Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 08:03 PM ET Best Commentary $100,000 LA JOLLA HANDICAP
$100,000.00

Race 7 Stakes

Win	7-2	1	Game Warrior	H I Berrios
Place	4-1	4	Artislas	J J Hernandez
Show	9-5	3	Freedoms Not Free	A Fresu
Wild card	3-1	6	The Padre	U Rispoli
Alternate 1	6-1	5	Day and Age	M E Smith
Alternate 2	15-1	2	Maaz	K Kimura

Exacta1-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
Trifecta1/3/4 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
COMMENTS: GAME WARRIOR will be closing and should get a solid pace to chase. ARTISLAS just missed in his last effort and will likely show more in the second off the sidelines. FREEDOMS NOT FREE hit the board in all five turf starts and should be close to the front all the way around. THE PADRE has some of the best turf breeding of this group.
Race #8
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 08:33 PM ET
$30,000.00

Race 8 Claiming

Win	4-1	13	El Diablo Rojo	J J Hernandez
Place	2-1	7	Night Time	D Cohen
Show	5-1	3	Devil Be Me	K Frey
Wild card	12-1	9	Goldensunrise	R Gonzalez
Alternate 1	12-1	11	Slews Joy	W R Orantes
Alternate 2	8-1	6	Halo Rando	K Kimura

Exacta13-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX
Trifecta3/7/13 BOX, 3/7/9 BOX
Race #9
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 09:03 PM ET Best Bet #1 TROPICAL RAIN DAY
$40,000.00

Race 9 Maiden Claiming

Win	7-2	1	Tropical Rain Day	A Fresu
Place	3-1	13	Calm Down Kimmie	K Frey
Show	6-1	8	Sei Bella	T Baze
Wild card	5-1	7	Dialing Destiny	R Silvera
Alternate 1	6-1	5	Sexy Blue	A L Bautista
Alternate 2	15-1	4	Big As Little One	D A Herrera

Exacta1-13 BOX, 13-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
Trifecta1/8/13 BOX, 7/8/13 BOX
Race #10
Dirt 5 Furlongs - Post Time: 09:32 PM ET Best Commentary $100,000 CTBA STAKES
$100,000.00

Race 10 Stakes

Win	5-1	2	Whats a Good Name	J J Hernandez
Place	8-5	6	Liberation	H I Berrios
Show	4-1	3	Tapatia Mia	R Silvera
Wild card	12-1	4	Linos Angel	T Baze
Alternate 1	10-1	5	My Love Caroline	A Ayuso
Alternate 2	7-2	7	Jasmina	K Frey

Exacta2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
Trifecta2/3/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
COMMENTS: WHATS A GOOD NAME tied for the highest last race speed figure with better fractions. LIBERATION just needs typical second race improvement. TAPATIA MIA is another making the second career start with upside. LINOS ANGEL improved sharply in her second start.
Race #11
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 10:01 PM ET
$80,000.00

Race 11 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-2	4	Mo Holland Drive	J J Hernandez
Place	3-1	8	Love the Pressure	A Espinoza
Show	5-1	3	Benny and the Jet	M Demuro
Wild card	8-1	5	Sagunto	K Kimura
Alternate 1	8-1	1	Oracle of Paradise	D A Herrera
Alternate 2	8-1	6	Union Secrets	U Rispoli

Exacta4-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
Trifecta3/4/8 BOX, 3/5/8 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saratoga Tip Sheet - August 3

Aug. 02, 2025

Race #1
Dirt 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 01:10 PM ET
$38,000.00

Race 1 Claiming

Win	4-5	4	Baron of Sealand	K Carmouche
Place	3-1	2	Six Kings	R Santana Jr.
Show	5-1	6	B D Saints	M Franco
Wild card	5-1	7	Solo Empire	F Prat
Alternate 1	15-1	1	Stjames	K Davis
Alternate 2	30-1	5	Masterwork	D Brown

Exacta4-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
Trifecta2/4/6 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX
Race #2
Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:44 PM ET
$80,000.00

Race 2 Maiden Special Weight

Win	5-2	3	Johnnys Red Storm	K Carmouche
Place	4-1	6	Two Ducks	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	4-1	2	Rare Eclipse	L Saez
Wild card	5-1	4	Natural Shooter	C Elliott
Alternate 1	4-1	2B	Escape Hall	Rider TBA
Alternate 2	10-1	1A	Essentially Fast	R R Maragh

Exacta3-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
Trifecta2/3/6 BOX, 2/4/6 BOX
Race #3
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:18 PM ET Best Bet #6 RITHM NIC
$60,000.00

Race 3 Claiming

Win	6-1	6	Rithm Nic	R Santana Jr.
Place	5-2	3	Ten Cent Town	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	9-2	5	Confabulation	K Carmouche
Wild card	4-1	1A	Notah	J Castellano
Alternate 1	8-1	8	Heros Medal	D Davis
Alternate 2	4-1	1	Celestial Glaze	J L Ortiz

Exacta6-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-1 BOX
Trifecta3/5/6 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
Race #4
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:52 PM ET Best Commentary $175,000 ADIRONDACK STAKES GRADE III
$175,000.00

Race 4 Stakes

Win	4-5	1	Mythical	E Jaramillo
Place	5-2	6	Iron Orchard	J Rosario
Show	6-1	3	Angel Gift	I Ortiz Jr.
Wild card	10-1	2	Spa Prospector	D Davis
Alternate 1	8-1	4	Tiz in Sight	J L Ortiz
Alternate 2	10-1	5	Meringue	F Prat

Exacta1-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
Trifecta1/3/6 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX
COMMENTS: MYTHICAL is unbeaten in a pair of easy wins. IRON ORCHARD just needs normal second start improvement. ANGEL GIFT is another coming off an easy debut win. SPA PROSPECTOR improved sharply in his last and more could come following a strong workout.
Race #5
Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 03:27 PM ET Best Bet #2 TIME STONE
$100,000.00

Race 5 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-2	2	Time Stone	J L Ortiz
Place	9-2	4	American Debutante	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	6-1	7	Hello Beauty	L Dettori
Wild card	3-1	6	Cliffs	J Lezcano
Alternate 1	5-2	3	Bint Al Dandy	M Franco
Alternate 2	6-1	1	Channel Check	F Prat

Exacta2-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
Trifecta2/4/7 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX
Race #6
Inner turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 04:02 PM ET
$110,000.00

Race 6 Allowance

Win	5-2	6	Vino Rouge	J L Ortiz
Place	3-1	3	Louise Procter	F Prat
Show	9-2	8	Celtic Charm	J Alvarado
Wild card	4-1	1	Collaboration	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 1	15-1	4	Cant Fool Me	J Rosario
Alternate 2	8-5	10	Meursault	F Prat

Exacta6-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX
Trifecta3/6/8 BOX, 1/3/8 BOX
Race #7
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:36 PM ET
$110,000.00

Race 7 Allowance

Win	5-2	3	Vettriano	J L Ortiz
Place	7-2	1	Midland Money	F Prat
Show	5-1	2	Keewaydin	I Ortiz Jr.
Wild card	4-1	8	Aggelos the Great	M Franco
Alternate 1	20-1	7	Executive Order	J Lezcano
Alternate 2	10-1	6	Northern Chill	J Rosario

Exacta3-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX
Trifecta1/2/3 BOX, 1/2/8 BOX
Race #8
Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:10 PM ET Best Commentary $300,000 TROY STAKES GRADE II
$300,000.00

Race 8 Stakes

Win	3-5	3	Bring Theband Home	J Castellano
Place	7-2	4	Alogon	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	15-1	1	Determined Kingdom	R Santana Jr.
Wild card	10-1	2	Twenty Six Black	F Prat
Alternate 1	7-5	8	Full Moon Madness	Rider TBA
Alternate 2	8-1	6	Senbei	M Franco

Exacta3-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
Trifecta1/3/4 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
COMMENTS: BRING THEBAND HOME ran the highest last race speed figure and his resume says it is going up in the second off the bench. ALOGON has some decent works prepping for the first after a short rest. DETERMINED KINGDOM tends to make a strong mid move and ride the momentum to the finish line. TWENTY SIX BLACK is jut a little racing luck from winning eight of his last ten.
Race #9
Inner turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 05:44 PM ET
$63,000.00

Race 9 Starter Optional Claiming

Win	4-1	6	Back in the Saddle	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	2-1	1A	Iron Max	F Prat
Show	7-2	9	Desperate Proposal	M Franco
Wild card	12-1	3	Gene and Jude	J Rosario
Alternate 1	2-1	1	Hamiltons Way	R Santana Jr.
Alternate 2	4-1	10	Senegal	Rider TBA

Exacta6-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX
Trifecta1/6/9 BOX, 1/3/9 BOX
Race #10
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:19 PM ET Best Bet #7 GATSBY
$34,000.00

Race 10 Claiming

Win	9-5	7	Gatsby	E Jaramillo
Place	12-1	9	Takeschargesmiling	D Davis
Show	6-1	4	Joking Way	I Ortiz Jr.
Wild card	8-1	5	Funny Joke	F Prat
Alternate 1	15-1	3	Forward Move	C Elliott
Alternate 2	6-1	6	Tetsu	J L Ortiz

Exacta7-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
Trifecta4/7/9 BOX, 4/5/9 BOX

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saratoga Hotlist - August 3

Aug. 02, 2025

Sunday, August 3, 2025 at Saratoga
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watchB: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
3^rdrace [Clm 50000B, 6 ? F] – (1A) Notah returned from a winter layoff at the end of June and finished second after a stalking trip. (8) Hero’s Medal won for $30,000 two races back and got claimed. He was moved up to $50,000 and was second after getting farther back in the early going. (2) Riyadh Moon ran twice this year at Monmouth Park and won a first level optional claimer and then was third stepping up to the second-level allowance. (3) Ten Cent Town has been racing in second-level NY-bred allowances.
4^thrace [Adirondack (G3), 6 ? F] – (1) Mythical is already a stakes winner at Saratoga having moved from a maiden win at Gulfstream Park in April to the Tremont during the Belmont Stakes meeting. Her wins were by a combined margin of 12 lengths. (6) Iron Orchard was a highly regarded debut winner last month by more than five lengths as the odds-on favorite. (2) Spa Prospector broke her maiden in her second try at the Spa in July for Tom Amoss. (3) Angel Gift won her debut by four lengths at 7-5 for Todd Pletcher and Repole Stable.
7^thrace [Alw 110000 N1X, 6F] – (3) Vettriano won 3 out of his last 5 starts including a NY-bred maiden and both of the state-bred allowances. Last seen in December he set the pace in an opencompany allowance. (2) Keewaydin broke his maiden as a 2-year-old and then tried the Remsen (G2). This year he ran in a pair of allowances with a third and a fourth after showing early speed. (1) Midland Money made one start last year in June for Bob Baffert and won by six lengths at Santa Anita at .20-1 odds. (8) Aggelos the Great was a fast closing second early in July in her third start of the year.
9^thrace [OC50k/SAL50k, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (7) Willintoriskitall (B) broke through the gate, pressed the pace, faded, and got claimed for $50,000. He gets a positive rider change. (1A) Iron Max broke his maiden for a $50,000 tag after returning to the turf and in his first start after a claim by Brad Cox. (5) Jhirsch came back from a nine-month layoff and set the pace heading into the stretch. (9) Desperate Proposal is a deep closer that finished second in his second start after changing barns and gets blinkers here.
Best bets: Mythical (4^th); Vettriano (7^th). Best value: Notah (3^rd); Willintoriskitall (9^th).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(7)	Willintoriskitall	B on 7/6	9	Broke through the gate, pressed the pace, faded.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saratoga Hotlist - August 3

Aug. 01, 2025

Sunday, August 3, 2025 at Saratoga
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch
B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
3^rdrace [Clm 50000B, 6 ? F] – (1A) Notah returned from a winter layoff at the end of June and finished second after a stalking trip. (8) Hero’s Medal won for $30,000 two races back and got claimed. He was moved up to $50,000 and was second after getting farther back in the early going. (2) Riyadh Moon ran twice this year at Monmouth Park and won a first level optional claimer and then was third stepping up to the second-level allowance. (3) Ten Cent Town has been racing in second-level NY-bred allowances.
4^thrace [Adirondack (G3), 6 ? F] – (1) Mythical is already a stakes winner at Saratoga having moved from a maiden win at Gulfstream Park in April to the Tremont during the Belmont Stakes meeting. Her wins were by a combined margin of 12 lengths. (6) Iron Orchard was a highly regarded debut winner last month by more than five lengths as the odds-on favorite. (2) Spa Prospector broke her maiden in her second try at the Spa in July for Tom Amoss. (3) Angel Gift won her debut by four lengths at 7-5 for Todd Pletcher and Repole Stable.
7^thrace [Alw 110000 N1X, 6F] – (3) Vettriano won 3 out of his last 5 starts including a NY-bred maiden and both of the state-bred allowances. Last seen in December he set the pace in an opencompany allowance. (2) Keewaydin broke his maiden as a 2-year-old and then tried the Remsen (G2). This year he ran in a pair of allowances with a third and a fourth after showing early speed. (1) Midland Money made one start last year in June for Bob Baffert and won by six lengths at Santa Anita at .20-1 odds. (8) Aggelos the Great was a fast closing second early in July in her third start of the year.
9^thrace [OC50k/SAL50k, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (7) Willintoriskitall (B) broke through the gate, pressed the pace, faded, and got claimed for $50,000. He gets a positive rider change. (1A) Iron Max broke his maiden for a $50,000 tag after returning to the turf and in his first start after a claim by Brad Cox. (5) Jhirsch came back from a nine-month layoff and set the pace heading into the stretch. (9) Desperate Proposal is a deep closer that finished second in his second start after changing barns and gets blinkers here.
Best bets: Mythical (4^th); Vettriano (7^th). Best value: Notah (3^rd); Willintoriskitall (9^th).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(7)	Willintoriskitall	B on 7/6	9	Broke through the gate, pressed the pace, faded.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Canterbury Park
PURCHASE

Canterbury Park - Race 7	Win, Place &Show / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta
Maiden Claiming $7,500 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 73 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 4:34P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * THE MAN THE MYTH: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Eq uibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MORE MONEY MO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/ surface.
4	THE MAN THE MYTH	9/2	3/1
3	MORE MONEY MO	5/2	4/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	MO MESA	6	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	70	58	59.2	37.0	31.5
3	MORE MONEY MO	3	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	84	77	56.0	57.0	51.0
4	THE MAN THE MYTH	4	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	81	70	66.5	55.5	52.0
2	TARPS STORM	2	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	40.4	49.6	42.1
5	FOLLOW MY HEINEKEN	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	57.7	34.1	21.6
7	LAKE OF FIRE	7	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	43.2	43.2	32.2
1	ITS PALADIN TIME	1	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	34.6	34.6	25.1
8	A ONE BEE ONE	8	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Wyoming Downs
PURCHASE

Wyoming Downs - Race 6	wps / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta
Claiming $4,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 70 • Purse: $10,500 • Post: 3:05P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * M K BIRTHDAY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a lay off. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ILA VEIW TOO: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. IMA RASCAL: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
1	M K BIRTHDAY	3/1	5/1
5	ILA VEIW TOO	7/2	5/1
2	IMA RASCAL	8/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	TALLDARKNTHIRSTY	8	8/1	Front-runner	59	53	0.0	40.0	22.0
2	IMA RASCAL	2	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	60	56	66.3	54.8	45.8
9	PRO SPECIAL	9	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	47	51	57.0	46.0	35.5
1	M K BIRTHDAY	1	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	70	63	57.0	54.8	50.3
5	ILA VEIW TOO	5	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	70	68	47.3	56.4	50.9
7	UKRAINE STRONG	7	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	67	53	34.0	45.2	35.7
6	BIG BLUE CAT	6	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	59	52	67.0	44.6	31.6
4	TOP WOLF	4	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	54	59.5	43.2	32.2
10	CANDY CRUSHER	10	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	53	48.0	36.4	21.4
3	GOODBYE NOW	3	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	50	28.0	42.8	30.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $70000 Class Rating: 78

GP - R6 - FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 HOTTER THAN DEM 7/2
# 13 RAASIL 15/1
# 7 ESCAPE FROM HOME 8/1

I favor HOTTER THAN DEM here. I like the rider on this colt - strong chance to win the contest. Jockey's recent ROI figures make this colt a very good wager. RAASIL - Gonzalez has a win percentage of 19 over the last month. ESCAPE FROM HOME - Has to be considered versus this group displaying strong numbers lately and an average speed figure of 70 under similar conditions. His 70 average has this colt with among the strongest speed figures for this race.

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Hawthorne - Race #7 - Post: 5:56pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 95

Rating:

#3 BAKENEKO (ML=5/1)


BAKENEKO - This gelding likes to be near the lead. Today's race is a shorter distance and should enhance his chances to win. This gelding is in excellent condition right now. Finished fourth last out and comes back soon. Just missed hitting the board on Jul 10th at Hawthorne. With pretty decent morning odds in this field, he has my interest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 VITALE (ML=5/2), #9 HUMBLE WARRIOR (ML=3/1), #5 TEMPER TANTRUM (ML=9/2),

VITALE - If today's event shapes up right, all the front runners will force a fierce pace duel early. Too bad this equine is one of those front runners. This pony ran a common speed rating in the last race. He shouldn't run much better and will probably lose today running that figure. HUMBLE WARRIOR - 3/1 odds isn't enough for this entrant when scrutinizing the most recent outings. Pace makes the race. Hard for this early speedster to be able to manage the early pressure from the rest of this group. TEMPER TANTRUM - Registered a somewhat easily forgotten speed fig last out in a Starter Allowance race on June 29th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that fig.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - BAKENEKO - With the best TrackMaster turf figure last race. This gelding is the thoroughbred to beat today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #3 BAKENEKO to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Saratoga - Race #7 - Post: 4:36pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $110,000 Class Rating: 102

Rating:

#6 NORTHERN CHILL (ML=10/1)
#8 AGGELOS THE GREAT (ML=4/1)
#4 G T FIVE HUNDRED (ML=8/1)
#1 MIDLAND MONEY (ML=7/2)


NORTHERN CHILL - Just missed hitting the board on June 25th at Churchill Downs. With pretty good morning odds in this field, he has my interest. The rider/trainer tandem of Rosario and Shirer has a strong ROI together. AGGELOS THE GREAT - This gelding should be at the peak of fitness, this far into his form cycle. I really like that last race on Jul 6th at Saratoga where he ended up second. Recent speed figures show solid pattern of improvement. The 102 last race speed rating looks strong in black and white. Last time around the track, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. A good indication he can close well, and should be right there at the end in today's race. G T FIVE HUNDRED - Last race at Churchill Downs on April 29th was a big class drop for this horse. Facing similar foes right here in this race. He should do well this time around. MIDLAND MONEY - Prat and Bob Baffert have had fantastic success together over the last twelve months. This horse is uppermost in earnings per start. He looks strong in today's contest. I know the barn is serious today. The colt gets Lasix for the first time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 VETTRIANO (ML=5/2), #2 KEEWAYDIN (ML=5/1),

VETTRIANO - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance affairs recently. Not likely to see him doing it in today's event either. KEEWAYDIN - Today's race is 6 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a short distance clash in the last couple of months. Not the best of omens.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #6 NORTHERN CHILL on the win end if we get at least 9/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 10 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $115100 Class Rating: 84

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 12 KING ROSSO 8/1
# 10 PROUDLY HAILED (GB) 3/1
# 2 KAMASI 6/1

KING ROSSO has a very strong shot to take this race especially at a such a nice price. Recorded a solid speed rating in the last race. Can run another good one in this affair. He has been racing soundly as of late while recording very solid Speed Figures. His earnings per start in turf route contests alone makes you take a look at him. PROUDLY HAILED (GB) - Displays formidable Equibase speed figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this field. Strong rider with handler figures make this horse a strong selection.