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Jeremy Plonk: Saratoga Spot Plays | Thursday, August 7, 2025

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August 6, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

Thursday's feature at Saratoga is the Galway Stakes for 3-year-old filly turf sprinters. It's Race 7 of 10 and has attracted a capacity field of entrants that look almost certain to cook in the early going.

Saratoga | Race 5 | 3:27 pm ET
#6 Shadow Surge (4-1 morning line odds) returns from a year-plus layoff for a George Weaver barn exceptional after extended vacations. Well-backed favorite in Keeneland debut and since has been gelded and working fast in the morning for this return. Weaver maidens have been on point at the current Saratoga meeting. Win bet #6.

Saratoga | Race 7 | 4:36 pm ET
#12 Abientot (8-1 morning line odds) gets a race with an exorbitant amount of early speed to set up for her late rally. She won over this course and distance last summer and rallied for a good third in the Coronation Cup here July 11 in her most recent start. Should be flying late under regular rider Dylan Davis. Win-place bet #12.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Del Mar - Race #2

#9 Avocado Lake	Take a look at this one on the tote and track ahead of this, but she's bred to like the short trip and may be ready enough to give the likely chalk a battle.
#6 Shady Stripes	Forward player gets blinkers while moving to the turf off a good debut try when taking cash at 6/5, and any upside from there would make her a handful. Might drill these.
#11 Donde Esta Jefe	She's another first-timer with some appeal on paper, so check her out. I like the draw to potentially try to attack from out here if she has any pace.
Race Summary	Avocado Lake goes first out in a race with a formidable likely chalk in Shady Stripes, so demand a fair and midrange price.

Del Mar - Race #6

#7 Baldoro	He tends to settle for a lot of good underneath shares, but I think this is the right group for him to get over the top against. Reliable form fits from close range.
#9 Russells Hustle	He comes back fresh for the new team with some back form that probably keeps him in the frame with these, and he has done some pretty good work over the local turf in the past.
#1 Promissio	He woke up a bit in that last one when getting back over the local footing, and he might be able to find a decent spot while saving ground from off the pace from the fence.
Race Summary	Baldoro has plenty of appeal with honest form against this kind and another good tactical trip looming today. Think he'll handle this bunch.

Del Mar - Race #8

#2 Blue Oasis	She has just failed to stay in those last two, but she looks like the controlling pace again today and may be able to see this one out if she doesn't take any real heat from the spying types.
#10 Ms Brightside	Spying speed should find a great spot to watch the top choice set the tempo, and she's got pretty reliable form that stacks up well here. Wouldn't argue too hard with you.
#7 Lady of Power	She might appreciate this lighter crew after a decent run last time out, and that one might leave her with some upside in the second start of the summer.
Race Summary	Blue Oasis has committed pace in a spot where the other forward players all seem happy to sit just a bit off her pace, and she could be long gone if she shakes free on the far turn.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Colonial Downs - Race #4

#8 CHACHING CHACHING (2-1)	Just missed versus the boys at Keeneland, better than latest appears.
#5 ZEINAB (10-1)	Kept a busy and strong workout regimen leading up to her debut.
#3 FASHION VICTIM (9-5)	Heavily bet against G-3 stakes and three-time allowance winners at Big A.
Race Summary	CHACHING CHACHING bounced back from a dull try on an ‘off’ track with an even effort in a rapid-paced, double key 6F sprint. Her fourth-place effort was upgraded when race winner Princess Proud returned with an easy allowance victory and third-place finisher Delightful Claire won geared down by 9-1/4 lengths in MSW company at Saratoga last Saturday. She adds blinkers today, so make a win and place wager on today’s Best Bet.

Colonial Downs - Race #5

#3 DREAM OVERTURE (3-1)	Positive signs for a possible first-out sprint victory on turf.
#1 KINDA CRAZY (5-2)	Rallied from far back to finish second in debut on dirt at 29-1 odds.
#8 HOT COCOA (5-1)	Starts fresh, could take some catching in her second go-round.
Race Summary	DREAM OVERTURE shows a fastest-of-46 morning move from the Laurel Park gate leading to her debut. Her dam was unraced but her sire, Mendelssohn, is the 9th-leading turf sire in 2025 with $2 million in progeny earnings and her trainer, Robert Bailes, is off to a 4-16 start at the meet. Bet to win and place and play 3-1 and 3-8 exactas.

Colonial Downs - Race #7

#1 NICKY JOLENE (9-2)	Versatile, consistent, at proper level, one more chance in weak field.
#2 SYNERGISM (4-1)	Contended for 6F in long-distance return, stronger contender on class drop.
#10 PALACE LIGHTS (7-2)	Rallied into fast pace and romped to maiden win at this level.
Race Summary	NICKY JOLENE finished in the money in all four starts at this level and can break through in a field that is a combined 8-for-64 on the lawn. She set the pace a long way from post 12 and held second at 1-1/16 miles at Tampa, then made a middle move to join the leaders at Delaware before finishing third at 7-1/2F. Bet to win and place and play 1-2 and 1-10 exactas.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Del Mar
PURCHASE

Del Mar - Race 1	$1 Exacta / $2 Quinella / 50c Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $1 Place Pick All / 50c Rolling Pick Three $1 Superfecta (10c min) / 50c Early Pick 5 / $2 WPS Parlay
Maiden Claiming $32,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 62 • Purse: $31,000 • Post: 2:00P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $32,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. FIRE ILE is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FIRE ILE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. DRAGON KAT: A first time starter with a trainer that has a return on investment with first time starters of at least +50 (minimum 10 starts). Today is a sprint and the horse is carryi ng at least 120 lbs.
4	FIRE ILE	5/2	2/1
7	DRAGON KAT	8/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	ALLURING VALENTINE	6	6/1	Front-runner	0	0	43.6	30.3	20.8
3	LITTLE TINKER ELLE	3	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	0	0	51.4	31.7	26.2
4	FIRE ILE	4	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	64	48	52.9	44.7	41.2
2	CHEEKWOOD	2	5/1	Trailer	0	0	36.0	34.1	27.1
1	PRIDE OF QUEENS	1	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	48.3	37.9	33.4

Unknown Running Style: DEVIL'S BELLA (12/1) [Jockey: Bautista Alfredo L - Trainer: Palma Hector O], DRAGON KAT (8/1) [Jockey: Aguilar Armando - Trainer: Papaprodromou George], CALL ME SUSIE (12/1) [Jockey: Frey Kyle - Trainer: Treece Charles S].

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Saratoga
PURCHASE

Saratoga - Race 7	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 7 &8, Pick 3 ($1) (7-9) Pick 4 (.50) (7-10)
Stakes • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Age 3 • CR: 99 • Purse: $150,000 • Post: 4:36P
GALWAY S. - (RAIL AT 18 FEET). FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $150 EACH WHICH SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION; $750 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND AN ADDITIONAL $750 TO START. FOR HORSES NOT ORIGINALLY NOMINATED, A SUPPLEMENTAL PAYMENT OF $750 IN ADDITION TO THE ENTRY AND STARTING FEES MAY BE MADE AT ANY TIME PRIOR TO THE CLOSING OF ENTRIES. THE PURSE TO BE DIVIDED 55% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 12% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH, 4% TO FIFTH AND 3% DIVIDED EQUALLY AMONGST THE REMAINING FINISHERS. 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A SWEEPSTAKES ALLOWED 2 LBS.; OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE-BRED ALLOWANCE IN 2025 ALLOWED 4 LBS. ANY HORSE ENTERED AS A MAIN TRACK ONLY RUNNER WILL BE ASSIGNED THE HIGH WEIGHT. A PRESENTATION WILL BE MADE TO THE WINNING OWNER. THE NEW YORK RACING ASSOCIATION RESERVES THE RIGHT TO TRANSFER THIS RACE TO THE MAIN TRACK. CLOSED SATURDAY, JULY 26, 2025 WITH 33 ORIGINAL NOMINATIONS AND 1 SUPPLEMENT. (IF THE STEWARDS CONSIDER IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TU

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * LOVE CERVERE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) i s at least 50. ABIENTOT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LUNA LOUSKA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. PROUD STARLET: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(s print or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. LAURICE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
11	LOVE CERVERE	7/2	9/2
12	ABIENTOT	8/1	6/1
9	LUNA LOUSKA	6/1	8/1
7	PROUD STARLET	6/1	9/1
10	LAURICE	15/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	MAKE HASTE (GB)	3	12/1	Front-runner	88	91	119.5	76.9	65.4
9	LUNA LOUSKA	9	6/1	Front-runner	92	97	109.6	93.2	76.7
14	HOLLYGROVE	14	5/2	Front-runner	96	93	91.0	87.4	75.4
4	DELIGHTFUL FLAME	4	20/1	Front-runner	82	77	89.1	78.7	52.7
8	ROJA	8	6/1	Front-runner	87	89	88.3	85.0	72.0
6	TWIRLING BEAUTY	6	30/1	Front-runner	81	79	86.0	71.8	49.8
7	PROUD STARLET	7	6/1	Front-runner	93	91	77.8	87.5	78.5
5	SILSBEE	5	6/1	Front-runner	83	85	74.9	80.6	61.6
10	LAURICE	10	15/1	Stalker	91	90	93.6	85.8	73.3
16	STONE SMUGGLER	16	4/1	Stalker	88	81	85.4	76.0	50.5
2	REGALTON (GB)	2	8/1	Stalker	83	82	78.7	79.6	67.1
11	LOVE CERVERE	11	7/2	Trailer	98	94	89.8	90.1	85.6
13	MAGNOLIA PRIME	13	30/1	Trailer	83	87	82.5	75.8	55.8
12	ABIENTOT	12	8/1	Trailer	97	96	77.0	88.4	79.4
15	FLAT OUT TIME	15	9/2	Trailer	69	72	55.8	70.4	41.9
1	POP IDOL	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	86	86.3	73.0	48.5

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Belterra Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:35pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#2 MINT DRIVEN (ML=8/1)
#5 HIDDEN RECIPE (ML=6/1)
#1 DREAM ON STORMY (ML=8/1)
#7 STATEMENT MADE (ML=5/1)


MINT DRIVEN - It looks like Mojica had to 'know' this filly on May 17th when riding her for the initial time. Back atop again today. HIDDEN RECIPE - That 72 fig this filly registered in her last event tells me she's a major player today. DREAM ON STORMY - Last raced at Mountaineer Park in a race with an Equibase class figure of 82. Dropping drastically in class figure this time out puts her in a solid position in this field. Winston adds Lasix for the second time today. Certainly could make the difference in this field. STATEMENT MADE - This filly is in fine form. Ended up fifth on July 19th. This mount may have too much power on the grass for the rest of the field. Moving down the stretch, she could put these away. Finished out of the top three last out at Belterra Park, but was within 5 lengths of the winner. Opening at 5/1 makes me think she's got a chance. This filly is most certainly on the improve with Equibase speed figs of 49, 65, 69 last three out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 DON'T WORRY (ML=5/2), #4 PEARL MAGIC (ML=7/2),

DON'T WORRY - This morning-line choice hasn't raced or worked at the track in awhile. No morning activity since last race. PEARL MAGIC - In the last affair this steed finished sixth. Doesn't look good for her chances today. Will be tough for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed fig. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put her on the vulnerable competitors list.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - MINT DRIVEN - With the dominate speed number in route contests on the grass, this filly is going to walk all over these ponies.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 MINT DRIVEN to win if we can get at least 9/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12400 Class Rating: 67

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 SLEWING 9/2
# 7 LOVELY LUCY 3/1
# 2 JUBA'S PUNCH 7/5

SLEWING is my choice. Demonstrates the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 64 speed rating which is one of the best in this group. Must be considered here if only for the solid speed fig earned in the last race. With a nice class rating average of 76, has one of the best class advantages in this field. LOVELY LUCY - Had one of the most respectable speed figures of this field in her last contest. She has recorded decent numbers under today's conditions and should fare well against this group. JUBA'S PUNCH - Has to be given a shot versus this group displaying formidable figs recently and an average speed figure of 62 under similar conditions. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this mare.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Colonial Downs - Race #2 - Post: 11:20am - Maiden Special - 18.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $60,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating:

#9 OCEAN CITY (ML=9/2)
#8 DECANTED (ML=5/1)


OCEAN CITY - Trainer Brion moves this horse down the ladder based on class to face a weaker class today. Look for a solid performance at this level. Sophisticated horseplayers will tell you that this thoroughbred has strong early speed. Brion seems to have this gelding primed for a big effort. His workout pattern is outstanding. Brion moves this gelding to the main track today. Look for an improvement from the most recent race on the grass. You should disregard that last race at Pimlico on the soft turf where he finished out of the money. Should do well in this event on a non-sloppy track. DECANTED - Always be wary of the longer priced animal when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. Took a big class drop last out, and I think he may have needed it. Brion enters him at a similar level today. I'd expect an improved performance. Another way to identify class is earnings per race entered. This entrant has the top in the field. I think he'll be close at the finish. Look for this gelding to show much better in today's race. Last race at Colonial Downs finishing seventh on the soft turf is no indication of his true talent.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 THE JACKAL (ML=7/2), #2 AWESOME MAN (ML=4/1), #1 GRATIA PRINCE (ML=9/2),

THE JACKAL - This gelding finished out of the money on Sep 1st and wasn't close last time around the track either. This favorite ran on Oct 10th and hasn't had a workout since then. AWESOME MAN - I prognosticate disappointment for this horse in this affair. GRATIA PRINCE - This gelding hasn't been showing me anything in the last two efforts.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - DECANTED - Love the latest bullet work. Should perform well today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #9 OCEAN CITY to win if you can get odds of 8/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [8,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Cross Country Pick Four

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $43520 Class Rating: 79

IND - R5 - FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 5 FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 MAGICAL DAY 9/5
# 11 EMOJI 9/2
# 13 POINTSETMATCH 4/1

MAGICAL DAY looks to be a respectable contender. Is tough not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been decent - 69 avg - of late. Is a solid choice - given the 82 Equibase Speed Figure from her most recent race. Looks very strong for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figures in turf sprint races recently. EMOJI - Recent figs for the jock - 21 win percent - make this filly stand out in this field. Should be given a chance in this race if only for the quite good speed fig posted in the last contest. POINTSETMATCH - She has been racing solidly as of late while recording solid Equibase Speed Figs. The speed fig of 58 from her most recent affair looks very good in here.