Saturday 8/9/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-06-2025, 07:38 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saturday’s Sword Dancer at Saratoga

August 5, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Grade 1 hits continue at Saratoga with the $750,000 Sword Dancer this Saturday. One of summer’s premier Breeders’ Cup Turf divisional showdowns brings defending champion Far Bridge center stage against 8 rivals. The undercard includes the Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks Invitational, also on the grass.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Sword Dancer (Race 10), which will be run over 1-1/2 miles:

#1-EL CORDOBLES: UK shipper exits a Group 2 Princess of Wales victory July 10 at Newmarket, his career-best performance. Son of Frankel has finished top-3 in all 5 career starts at 1-1/2 miles or farther. The Sword Dancer is one of the few NYRA turf stakes that has eluded trainer Charlie Appleby and owner Godolphin, a worldwide superpower. Jockey Flavien Prat won last week’s Saratoga feature in the Grade 1 Whitney aboard Sierra Leone.

#2-REBEL RED: Listed stakes winner makes his first appearance at the Grade 1 level while 4 of 13 lifetime. Like El Cordobles to his inside, this is another son of the legendary miler Frankel. Won the 11-furlong Chorleywood at Churchill, but is 5: 0-0-1 in graded stakes. Trainer Cherie DeVaux and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. both are in search of their first Sword Dancer trophy.

#3-VOTE NO: $40,000 claim at Turfway Park in March for Kelsey Danner has shown significant improvement for the new connections. The Divisidero 4-year-old won a Horseshoe Indy allowance and Delaware Park’s listed Cape Henlopen Stakes before a solid fourth on the class test at Monmouth in the Grade 2 United Nations. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche takes over in the saddle and he notably orchestrated last Saturday’s Grade 1 Fourstardave victory by Deterministic over the Spa lawn.

#4-PADIDDLE: Fernando Abreu claimed this one for just $25,000 on Valentine’s Day at Gulfstream Park and he’s since rattled off graded stakes-placings in the Pan American, Man o’ War and Belmont Gold Cup – the first pair in pursuit of Sword Dancer return rival Far Bridge. Gelded son of Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker has won just 1 of 12 and has Ricardo Santana back in the saddle.

#5-NATIONS PRIDE: More accomplished of the uncoupled pair from Charlie Appleby and Godolphin in the Sword Dancer, he’s earned just shy of $3.7 million while winning 11 of 22 starts worldwide. Interestingly bypasses a title defense in the Arlington Million the same day at Colonial Downs and instead returns to the Spa, where he won the 2022 Saratoga Derby Invitational and was runner-up in the 2024 Manhattan. Regular rider Willam T. Buick has the call on the 6-year-old who makes his first start since a Group 1 Dubai Turf dud in April.

#6-FAR BRIDGE: He became trainer Christophe Clement’s record-setting fifth winner of the Sword Dancer last year and third for the barn in a 4-year run. Joel Rosario has been aboard the trio of recent Clement Sword Dancer winners and can match Pat Day’s race record if able to notch a fourth. The Clement Stable has been turned over to Miguel Clement since Christophe’s passing in late May, and the 27-year-old conditioner has notched the Grade 2 Glens Falls, Grade 2 Bowling Green and last week’s Grade 1 Fourstardave at the Saratoga summer stand. Clement Stables won back-to-back Sword Dancers of recent vintage with Gufo (2021-’22). This son of Breeders’ Cup Turf winner English Channel is a neck shy of perfection this year through 4 starts.

#7-EL REZEEN: No match for Far Bridge when a 3-length runner-up in Saratoga Grade 2 Bowling Green looks to get over the top for his first stakes score. Like Far Bridge and Utah Beach in this field, he’s a son of Breeders’ Cup Turf winner English Channel. Todd Pletcher trained the sire and this 4-year-old who was third in the 2024 Jockey Club Derby Invitational in his only other stakes bid. Pletcher won this race in 2006 with Go Deputy. Dylan Davis guided El Rezeen to his 2 career scores and returns in the saddle.

#8-GRAND SONATA: The more accomplished of an uncoupled Todd Pletcher-trained pair in the Sword Dancer, this $2.2 million earner is cross-entered Saturday in the Grade 1 Arlington Million at Colonial Downs. Given the rider assignments, appears more likely to scratch here and head to Virginia. Medgalia d’Oro 6-year-old has won just 1 of his last 15, capturing the 2024 Grade 2 Kentucky Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs. Exits a second-place effort in Monmouth’s Grade 2 United Nations. Pletcher won this race in 2006 with Go Deputy; jockey Manny Franco took the 2020 edition with Channel Maker.

#9-UTAH BEACH: Third son of Breeders’ Cup Turf winner English Channel in this field, alongside Far Bridge and El Rezeen, this gelding looks to add to a 2025 resume that includes wins in the Grade 2 Elkhorn at Keeneland and Grade 3 Louisville at Churchill Downs Trainer Igncacio Correas announced earlier this week that he’ll retire from training and return to his native Argentina in December. Jose Ortiz gets back aboard Utah Beach for the first time since their third-place finish in last October’s Grade 3 Sycamore at Keeneland.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-06-2025, 07:39 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saturday’s Beverly D at Colonial Downs

August 4, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

Colonial Downs’ biggest day of summer welcomes a trio of Windy City transfers in the Secretariat, Beverly D. and Arlington Million. They’ll run for $2 million in total among the turf triumvirate on a 12-race card that also includes four listed stakes.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet be sure to take part in Saturday’s 2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split on the Colonial Downs late pick 4 (Races 9-12).

Let’s meet the contenders for the Beverly D (Race 10), which will be run over 1-3/16 miles:

#1-CHICK’S SHADOW: 8-year-old mare will try to snap an 8-race losing streak in her toughest career assignment. Her 55th lifetime start will be the first in a graded stakes for this Florida-bred. She’s 4-for-4 in the exacta over the Colonial Downs turf, including an allowance runner-up July 11 in her most recent start. Jockey Jose Lopez last won a graded stakes in the 2004 Chaposa Springs at Calder, paying $80 to win that day.

#2-BE YOUR BEST: The 9-5 morning line favorite is cross-entered in Friday’s Grade 2 $300,00 Ballston Spa Stakes at Saratoga. Well-traveled 5-year-old won the Grade 2 Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream in January and May’s Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita most recently. The millionaire earner is trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and has Tyler Gaffalione named to ride. Gaffalione returned July 3 from an ankle injury and seeks his first graded stakes victory of the 2025 summer.

#3-BEACH BOMB: South African export has been with Graham Motion’s barn for the past year and has been consistently strong on the current campaign. She won the The Very One and Orchid at Gulfstream before finishing second in both the Sheepshead Bay at Aqueduct and New York Stakes at Saratoga. The 5-year-old will have regular rider Luis Saez in the saddle as she looks to get back to the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf after finishing just 3-1/2 lengths back in last year’s Del Mar renewal.

#4-CHARLENE’S DREAM: Front-running winner of Pimlico’s Grade 3 Gallorette on Preakness Day, this 4-year-old filly will take them as far as she can under Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano. Castellano won the 2023 Beverly D. aboard Fev Rover. Charlene’s Dream failed to carry her speed in a pair of Churchill stakes since and has yet to win beyond 1-1/16 miles. Ed Moger Jr. trains the lightly raced filly who has made only 3 starts on the season each of the past 2 years.

#5-SPANISH EYES: German export is the most lightly raced runner in the field with only 7 prior career starts and a lone maiden victory in her June 2024 debut. Brendan Walsh took over the training this year for the 4-year-old and she’s turned in a troubled-trip allowance fourth as well as a photo defeat when second in the Delaware’s Robert G. Dick Memorial Stakes. Ben Curtis rides. Three German-breds have won the Beverly D., including Royal Highness (2007), Eclair de Lune (2010) and Dalika (2022), all under the tutelage of US-based trainers after transfers.

#6-DUVET DAY: Irish-bred export came to Michael McCarthy’s barn late in 2021 prior to her third start and has inconsistently gone about her business. She won Santa Anita’s listed Astra Stakes in 2023 and got her signature score last November in Churchill’s Grade 3 Cardinal. That victory in the Cardinal is her only in her last 13 starts, but she knocked on the door last time out at Churchill when a close second in the listed Anchorage Stakes. John Velazquez stakes the mount as Duvet Day looks to tie 4 others as the oldest winner of the Beverly D. at age 6. Velazquez won this race in 2018-’19 with Sistercharlie.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2025, 06:32 AM

Race of the Week: Saturday's Arlington Million at Colonial Downs

August 6, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Horse racing's most noted alumnus of the transfer portal, the Arlington Million, returns Saturday to Colonial Downs for a third edition since moving to Virginia. The longtime Chicago staple joins its Arlington family with the Secretariat Stakes and Beverly D., to be run in succession from Races 9-11. The Million competes with the same-day Sword Dancer at Saratoga for horsepower and that rival race specifically plucked defending Arlington Million winner Nations Pride. But the Million lured 2024 Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan to provide instant intrigue for his turf debut.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet be sure to take advantage of the 2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split promotion on Saturday at Colonial for the late pick 4 (Races 9-12).

Field Depth:
MYSTIK DAN is the lone Grade 1 winner in the lineup, while Grade 2 winners include GRAND SONATA and INTEGRATION, the latter also Grade 1-placed. RUNAWAY STORM and CAIRO are Grade / Group 3 winners, with CAIRO also Group 1-placed. This is a difficult read on class given MYSTIK DAN's dirt company lines and how that translates to turf, while CAIRO's international running lines rate strongest among the turfers.

Pace:
RUNAWAY STORM has made the front in 5 of his last 7 starts and likely will be sent to the engine while stretching out in distance. TIME SONG, MYSTIK DAN and VESTING should be in closest pursuit and the pace looks moderate for 1-1/4 miles on turf.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-MYSTIK DAN: His last 3 starts all have been highly promising and productive and note Stephen Foster runner-up Sierra Leone returned last week to win the Grade 1 Whitney. Mystik Dan reached out decently in his only grass workout (as seen at 1st.tv), and his dam Ma'am did win on the lawn at Ellis Park. Sire Goldencents hasn't had a ton of turfers, but multiple Grade 1 winner Going to Vegas is among those. We know his impeccable wet-track form, which often translates to turf, and his ability to cut the corner and hug the rail under Brian Hernandez Jr. could play effectively on grass. There's a lot to be optimistic about even if this race placement seems forced for a first turf try. Fortunately, it didn't come up historically tough. Could be the first Kentucky Derby alum since Mecke (1995-'96) to win the Arlington Million.

#2-TIME SONG: Dropped 8 straight since breaking his maiden in April 2024, but this member of Jonathan Thomas' west coast string has been improved of late. Second in the 1-3/4 miles San Juan Capistrano to close the Santa Anita season, we'll see how sharp Luis Saez wants him on the cutback in distance given an post draw inside the primary other speed, Runaway Storm. Respect the connections, but prefer others when it comes time to quicken late.

#3-VESTING: Trainer Mike Maker has gotten some improvement of late out of this former Chad Brown trainee and that's given him the option to take a graded stakes shot while in form. Drawn between 2 potential speed horses could be a tough spot for jockey Javier Castellano, but note that rider came here in 2023 and took down both the Secretariat and Beverly D. on this card (and was second in last year's Beverly D. as well). Flat late performances are repeated in his running lines, so a no lead, no pass scenario seems most likely.

#4-RUNAWAY STORM: The 2023 Virgina Derby pacesetter and third-place finisher returns to the local scene off a series of races at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Trainer Ethan West has had a precision-strike kind of meet at Colonial Downs and his barn notably won Sunday's West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer. The 10-furlong trip is the longest of this one's career and by past performances appears beyond his best ... especially if there's some pace pressure.

#5-CAIRO: X-factor from Newmarket exits a surprising third in the Group 1 Queen Anne at Royal Ascot at 100-1 odds and embarks on what's supposed to be a 2-race US sojourn (Kentucky Downs' Mint Millions slated next). Trainer Alice Haynes' second US starter, having finished off the board at Keeneland in the 2022 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Colonial Downs leading jockey the past 2 seasons, Ben Curtis, provides an excellent pairing. Competitive in Dubai and the UK, it's notable that this horse is 0-16 since starting 3-5 to open his career. Respect, but I'd be price sensitive and demand something closer to 5-1 if you can find it. Otherwise, you let him beat you.

#6-FORT WASHINGTON: Pimlico's Grade 3 Dinner Party Stakes winner on Preakness Day, he hasn't really fired a dud in more than a year. Best BRIS Late Pace Figures in the field and would benefit from a strong early tempo if it evolves. Trainer Shug McGaughey brought this one to Colonial in 2023 when third in an allowance at 6-5 odds and he'll have to do better than that. But the form is good and he got zero pace help last time in the Wise Dan when fourth. Regular rider Junior Alvardo is having a dream season with Sovereignty and could add another Grade 1. Contender.

#7-GRAND SONATA: 6-year-old has won just 1 of his last 15 races and 1 of his last 22 stakes attempts, so you'll have to be forgiving if backing. Runner-up in Monmouth's Grade 2 United Nations last out was a move in the right direction, but he's been far more off than on over the past year. Cross-entered in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga for trainer Todd Pletcher. Prefer others.

#8-INTEGRATION: The 8-5 morning line favorite doesn't appear to have any decided edges on the field other than his proven affinity for the Colonial course. He's 4: 3-1-0 locally, while the rest are a mere 2: 0-0-2 in limited showings. His only local loss was a good second in the 2024 Arlington Million. Jockey John Velazquez raided Colonial last summer to win the Secretariat aboard Trikari on this same card and just missed aboard Integration last time out when a head runner-up in the Grade 1 Manhattan. His nemisis that day, Deterministic, returned to win last week's Grade 1 Fourstardave at Saratoga. He's the horse to beat, but at 1-for-his-last-7 at average odds of just 5-2, you don't have to concede if you find better options.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
INTEGRATION is 4-for-4 in the exacta at Colonial and was in the frame in last year's Arlington Million when second.

Best Longshot Contender:
VESTING could be part of the early mix and hold for a share at double-digit odds while in the best form of his career and for a jockey who has had success in limited Colonial attempts.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$40 exacta MYSTIK DAN over FORT WASHINGTON, INTEGRATION ($80). $20 exacta MYSTIK DAN over CAIRO.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-07-2025, 06:32 AM

Fun in the Sun: Jackpot Grows to $12,265; More Sar, Dmr Saturday

August 6, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

Almost halfway home in the Xpressbet ‘Fun in the Sun’ handicapping tournament for 2025, the season-ending Final Table prize pool has reached $12,265 after 3 weeks of play. Gary Crampton paced all players last week in the Sarotoga-Del Mar contest as 15 of the 35 qualifying slots for the Final Table have now been filled with no dual-qualifiers.

Crampton led the way last Saturday with a season-high $337 mutuel total on his 10 total contest plays at Saratoga and Del Mar. He earned the $1,060.50 weekly top prize. Jack Rector was second ($278, earned $441.87 in prizes) and Joe Rotell was third ($265, earned $265.13 in prizes). Among the top-5, which all earned Final Table berths, were Lawrence Hahlden ($220) and Jeff Elliott ($210.50).

Fun in the Sun challenges bettors to make $10 Win bets on 5 specified contest races each at Saratoga (last 5 races on the card) and Del Mar (first 5 races on the card). Players compete each week for cash prizes, plus a coveted seat at the $10,000-added Final Table on Labor Day.

Last season, Gordon Maruya was the runaway winner of the $15,782 final table in the FITS competition and bagged $8,680 in prize money. It was Maruya’s third final table appearance (also qualifying in 2021 and 2023).
The Final Table format was created in 2020 and its winners have included Robert Rosen (2020), Wayne Tam (2021), Kevin Saunders (2022), Joe Tambasco (2023) and Gordon Maruya (2024).

//

2025 Tournament Dates
Saturday, July 19, 26
Saturday, August 2, 9, 16, 23, 30
Monday, September 1 (Final Table)

Buy-In

$125 Buy-In per week, split between $100 Bankroll + $25 Entry Fee

How to Play

Tournament consists of the last five (5) races each Saturday at Saratoga and the first five (5) races each Saturday at Del Mar
Players must make a $10 Win bet on one (1) horse in each race via the Contest Wagerpad

Weekly Prize Pool

70% of Entry Fees are paid out each week as the Weekly Prize Pool

Weekly Prizes

Top Five (5) finishers each week automatically qualify for the Final Table
1st Place Finisher – 60% of Weekly Prize Pool + Final Table Seat
2nd Place Finisher – 25% of Weekly Prize Pool + Final Table Seat
3rd Place Finisher – 15% of Weekly Prize Pool + Final Table Seat
4th Place Finisher – Final Table Seat
5th Place Finisher – Final Table Seat

Final Table Prizes

30% of Entry Fees carried over to the Final Table
$10,000-added prize pool courtesy of Xpressbet
1st Place Finisher: 55% of Final Table Prize Pool
2nd Place Finisher: 25% of Final Table Prize Pool
3rd Place Finisher: 10% of Final Table Prize Pool
4th Place Finisher: 5% of Final Table Prize Pool
5th Place Finisher: 5% of Final Table Prize Pool

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-08-2025, 07:30 AM

Scott Shapiro: Arlington Million Day Pick 4 Hit & Split

August 7, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

Another big weekend of summer racing is approaching and as always 1/ST BET and Xpressbet are here to make it that much better. The focus this Saturday afternoon is Colonial Downs and the Grade 1 Arlington Million card that also includes the Grade 2 Secretariat and Grade 2 Beverly D. All three graded stakes events are contained in the late Pick 4, which happens to be a 2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split! Just register for the promotion, connect the dots, and collect your share!

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 9: Secretariat (G2)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4 Simulate; 7 Cairo Caper
Backups: None

Forecast: The first graded stake of the afternoon is this one-mile two-turn event for 3YOs over the grass where I respect the chances of morning line favorite #8 Dream On and second choice #2 Maui Strong, but prefer a pair that should offer better value to kick off the sequence.

#4 Simulate is my top choice. The Kitten’s Joy colt has to answer the class test as well as prove he can be at his best without Lasix, but there is no doubt he comes into this race in the best form of his young career. His last was a big step forward from his 3YO debut when he was not ridden aggressively by jockey Junior Alvarado in what looked like a perfect comeback race. Hopefully, he is primed for his best third off the layoff. #7 Cairo Caper also intrigues. The Phil Schoenthal trainee was caught wide last out in the Penn Mile (G3) while Dream On had a much more favorable trip in route to victory. If jockey Victor Carrasco can work out a better voyage, this gelding is within a legitimate shot.

Race 10: Beverly D. (G2)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3 Beach Bomb; 2 Be Your Best; 5 Spanish Eyes
Backups: None

Forecast: This race for fillies and mares used to be one of this division’s premier races, but is no longer close to that. That said, there are some honest horses in here in search of a victory in this 1 3/16-mile test over the Colonial sod.

I lack a strong opinion in a race where #2 Be Your Best is clearly the deserving favorite. The Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee has not raced since a dominant wire-to-wire score in the Gamely (G1) in late May. The 5YO mare was really good at a young age for trainer Horacio De Paz and now has turned back into a serious horse once again under the care of Joseph. I do not expect her to have things easy on the front end in this spot, but she will take some beating if she fires her best.

#3 Beach Bomb and #5 Spanish Eyes have the best chance of besting Be Your Best. Beach Bomb will have to prove she can win without an easy lead, but has put forth a pair of strong seconds after easy trip victories in Florida this winter. Luis Saez is in to ride. Spanish Eyes has not had things her way in the last couple, so big improvement is to be expected. However, the fact she is eligible for a non-winners of two lifetime makes it tough to get excited about her unless she floats up above her 9-2-morning line offering.

Race 11: Arlington Million (G1)
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6 Fort Washington
Backups: None

Forecast: Last year’s runner-up #8 Integration was understandably made the 8-5-ML favorite in this year’s Million. The son of Quality Road has earned over $1.6M, has finished first or second in all four starts over this course, and simply brings the strongest resume in. He makes a lot of sense, but the tote board will reflect that. I prefer his stablemate #6 Fort Washington. The 6YO son of War Front has already raced 27 times, but comes into his third start of the form cycle primed for a good one. The Magic Cap Stables runner has not had honest paces to run at in his last two starts, but still made a strong account of himself both times against graded stakes foes. His effort two-back in the Dinner Party (G3) was the more impressive run not only because he hit the wire first, but he also was able to show the ability to win without a hot pace to run at. That said, he should get an honest tempo on Saturday with #2 Time Song, #3 Vesting, and #4 Runaway Storm all likely to flash early zip. Junior Alvarado should be able to save ground early and come with a strong run late to get the money!

Race 12:
Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3 Outrunner
Backups: None

Forecast: I am all in on 3-1-second choice #3 Outrunner in the finale. The American Pharoah colt makes his third start as a 3YO after a better than looks second to 3-5-favorite Tom’s Magic in the Tale of the Cat at Monmouth Park in late June. He gets Lasix for the first time and Luis Saez. He should have no issue picking up his first victory against winners for trainer Jorge Duarte Jr.

Good luck!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-09-2025, 06:12 AM

Keeneland Select Pick of the Day - August 9

Aug. 08, 2025

Race 9 at Colonial Downs | Saturday August 9 | Post Time 4:41 PM Eastern
Secretariat Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $500,000 | One Mile on Turf | Three Year Olds
Win contenders in preference/probability order:
Anegada (6), Simulate (4), Antisocial (5), Dream On (8), Cairo Caper (7)
Analysis and win contenders:
Eight horses are entered in this important race for three-year-old males on the grass, and it’s a much more wide-open race than the morning line odds make it appear. The starting favorite at 5 to 2 is Dream On (8), who just won the somewhat similar Penn Mile Stakes on June 27 by a length over Cairo Caper (7), who opens at 9 to 2. Both horses can win, but neither are standouts because the 102 Equibase Speed Figure assigned to Dream On for that win is no better than the 102 figures assigned to Anegada (6) for his near win on June 7 at this mile turf trip, nor the 102 figure assigned to Simulate (4) for his win in his most recent race on July 18.
In that June 7 race at one mile at Churchill Downs, Anegada ran the last quarter mile in an impressive :22.7 seconds, faster than the 23.1 seconds Dream On ran in the Penn Mile. In that race at Churchill Downs, Anegada missed by a neck to Native Runner, who returned to finish second in the American Derby. The fifth-place finisher from that race finished second in the Nashville Derby. In his only start since then, Anegada had some traffic trouble and finished eighth of nine, beaten four lengths, but with RED HOT Tyler Gaffalione getting on, with the jockey having returned from an injury on August 5 and having won 11 of 45 since (with another 12 seconds or thirds), Anegada has a big shot to win, particularly since he passed four horses in the stretch in that June 7 race to make the lead before being run down by a horse with a better late kick and he appears to have the best late speed in this field so is less likely to get run down at the end. However, even if second at double digit odds that could mean a nice profit.
Simulate (4) was away for 11 months until June, then finished fourth in a two-turn race on grass before improving markedly to win nicely in a field of 10 on July 18. He’s moving forward nicely and has the best last race Equibase Speed Figure in the field, 102, the same figure Anegada earned when leading late then missing by a neck in June. This lightly raced three year old could be any kind for Bill Mott and as he also opens at more than decent odds, 8 to 1, he must be strongly considered.
Antisocial (5), like Simulate, just won at the first allowance condition, with a strong 100 Equibase Figure, yet he opens at 10 to 1. He returned from seven months off in May and won a sprint, then missed in a three-horse photo before winning nicely on the Colonial Downs turf course last month. This colt is a half-brother to multiple stakes winner and Grade 1 stakes winner (on grass) Keeper of the Stars ($600K) and has a bright future.
There are no big knocks on the other two contenders, Dream On (8) and Cairo Caper (7), who finished first and second, respectively, in the Penn Mile Stakes on June 27 in the most recent start for both. Still, the 102 and 100 figures they earned, respectively, aren’t any better to the recent top figures of the three horses previously mentioned, and the Penn Mile was a grade 3 stakes, so both are stepping up in class to this grade 2 level the same as the other three contenders, but they open at lower odds which are likely to stay that way – 9 to 2 for Cairo Caper and 5 to 2 for Dream On.
Win Bets:
We should start with Anegada (6) and Simulate (4), who should both be considered for win bets if their odds are 7 to 2 or more.
If one of the two is below that threshold, we should consider Antisocial (5) next, at odds of 4 to 1 or more.
The other two contenders, Dream On (8) and Cairo Caper (7) also have 4 to 1 fair odds but are unlikely to represent as much return for the risk potential as any of the others so we will try to make a profit off them running well on exacta tickets.
Exactas:
The strategy is to key the three higher odds horses in first and second, as follows, and if two of the three finish first and second, we win two times:
Anegada (6), Simulate (4), Antisocial (5) over Anegada (6), Simulate (4), Antisocial (5), Dream On (8), Cairo Caper (7)
Anegada (6), Simulate (4), Antisocial (5), Dream On (8), Cairo Caper (7) over Anegada (6), Simulate (4), Antisocial (5)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-09-2025, 06:12 AM

Del Mar Hotlist - August 9

Aug. 08, 2025

Today’s Del Mar Hot List races to watch
Saturday, Aug. 9, 2025
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (7) Uncle Dude has not raced since November but can start the year off on a winning note. (6) Triple Diamonds was second last time and can be the runner-up again. (1) McKinzie Street may shine on turf. (4) Run for Kidder will welcome a return to turf. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-6-7.
4^th race – (5) Desert Gate was an impressive debut winner for Baffert and should handle this field. (4) Pavlovian should like the added distance. (3) St Petersburg may benefit from his debut. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-5.
6th race – (6) Privman finally broke his maiden last time and can start a winning streak here. (1) Lyell’s Song missed by a neck last time and looks like the main rival. (7) Brazenly should be closing nicely at the end. (3) Vasa was a game maiden winner and cannot be overlooked . Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-6-7.Doubles: 1-3-6-7 with 2-3-5-8.
7th race – (3) Final Boss has plenty of speed and may not look back.(2) Gold Phoenix has tons of class but this may be too short for him. (8) Beyond Brilliant might move forward off a useful comeback race. (5) Astronomer could be a threat on his best try. Betting strategy: 3 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-5-8.
9th race – (2) Heredia ships in from Saratoga and could work out a winning trip. (3) Liguria shapes up as the one to fear. (8) Mahina should pose a major threat in the stretch.(1) Hang the Moon will be helped by a rail trip. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-8.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-09-2025, 06:13 AM

Saratoga Hotlist - August 9

Aug. 08, 2025

Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Saturday, August 9, 2025 at Saratoga (day 23)
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
6^th race [Md Sp Wt, 6F] – (6) Golden Tornado is a first-time starter that sold for $475,000 as a yearling and was touted by trainer Danny Gargan. (7) Senior Lender will make his debut for Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables and was a $450,000 yearling purchase. (8) Sassmaster was a $650,000 purchase in October and will start for Todd Pletcher whose 2-year-olds have come out running to win at the Saratoga meeting. (2) Oscar’s Hope shows two fast recent workouts in preparation for his first race.
7^th race [OC 75k/N2X, 1 mi TURF] – (1) Resilience (B) stumbled badly out of the gate to be last, made a middle move, and faded. (5) Itsallcomintogetha (C) was bet down from 5-1 to 3-1, got to the lead in a NY-bred stakes race, and finished third going longer on the grass. (7) Exact Estimate will drop in for the claiming option for the first time in his career after a pair of seconds in top-level allowances. (3) Gilded Craken won a first-level allowance earlier in the meeting by eight-lengths in a race that was meant for the turf and gets Irad to ride.
8^th race [OC 100k/C 6F] – (2) Damon’s Mound came back from a lengthy layoff to win a Florida-bred stakes at Gulfstream Park in January and was last seen setting the pace in the Vanderbilt (G2). (3) Maximus Meridius won the Toboggan at Aqueduct in February and a state-bred allowance at Parx Racing last month. (6) Little Ni was second by a neck in a similar allowance in his first start of 2025 for Mark Casse. (4) Light the Way won 3 out of his last 4 starts for Linda Rice while racing on the lead each time working his way from a starter allowance through two open-allowance conditions.
10^th race [Sword Dancer (G1), 1 ? mi TURF] – (6) Far Bridge won this race last year and has 5 graded stakes victories from 7 starts including two Grade 1s and two Grade 2s. (5) Nations Pride has to be respected with his many Grade 1 and Group 1 victories in Europe and the USA. (9) Utah Beach won the Elkhorn (G2) and the Louisville (G3) this spring before he had a troubled trip at Churchill in June. (7) El Rezeen ran second in his two starts this year in a Keeneland allowance and the Bowling Green (G2) at Saratoga last month behind the top pick.
Best bets: Damon’s Mound (8^th); Far Bridge (10^th). Best value: Golden Tornado (6^th); Resilience (7^th).
Saturday Pick 3 Special -
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 6-8  2, 6, 7, 8 with 1, 3, 5, 7 with 2, 3 = $32.

No.	Name	Letter last race	Today's Race	Comments
(1)	Resilience	B on 7/12	7	Stumbled badly at the start.
(5)	Itsallcomintogetha	C on 6/4	7	Took late money in a NY-bred stakes and was third.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-09-2025, 06:15 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Milton Pick 4 Analysis

August 9, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

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Northfield Park has a loaded 15-race card. The headliner goes in Race 12, the Carl Milstein Memorial with a $300,000 purse. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 12. The sequence has an estimated $10,000 pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EDT)

6-Swingtown (8-1)-Has been very consistent this year and has raced at 4 different tracks. Makes it season debut at Nfld after winning 3 of the last 4 starts. Has hit the board in 2 of 3 races at Nfld and has taken 1 picture. The post makes the price, and this horse doesn't get as much respect as it should. Ronnie Wrenn can grind it out if necessary and hopefully won't be bet down.
9-Twisted Destiny (5/2)-Had its 4-race win streak snapped in the Adios after being hung the mile and still just missed. This will be its Nfld debut but has high marks on the 1/2 at Yonkers. The 2nd tier should help the price a little and will land here and fade the 2-1 program chalk Prince Hal Hanover who also is 1st time Nfld. Dexter Dunn should find a way to work a smooth 2nd tier trip.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EDT)

4-Hurrikane Msrodine (12-1)-This is hodgepodge affair and this mare pays its own way but hasn't proved itself at this level. The same could be said about the entire field, so she does fit and has won 2 of the last 3. The question mark is the trip, but if John Ciocca can provide a smooth journey this gal could surprise.
6-Think Of Galaxies (3-1)-This will be the 3rd start after being off a few weeks. Trainer Cory Kreiser has steered in the last 2 races and now she should be tight enough. Looks like a main player with Aaron Merriman at the controls and this is go-time.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EDT)

2-Spanky McGee (9/2)-This is another who fits and the issue will be if the driver gets high marks. Mike Mcallef steers, trains, and draws well enough to be in the mix. Could be overlooked and will use and hope the steer is smooth.
4-When Is Parade (6-1)-Broke stride 2 back in the only Nfld start and last week was raced cautiously from post 7. Draws well and Chris Page should get a good early seat. Hasn't missed the board in all 3 races
7-Odds On Sugar (5/2)-Merriman was in the bike for the last race at ScD, broke stride at the start and rallied to finish a beaten 2nd. There are question marks in this race, and the colt has been a slow starter. Dexter Dunn gets the nod, and a new set of hands may do the trick.

Race 15 (11:08 PM EDT)

1-Mega Money (3/2)-This filly draws post 1, and Merriman steers for trainer Chris Beaver. Has been racing well and picked up 2 wins in 4 starts at Nfld. The race probably goes through this gal but will offer no value.
2-Dream Something (3-1)-This filly has beaten the morning line choice and raced well in last after being off 26 days. Comes right back this time. Could benefit from a pocket trip, be the best down the lane, and hopefully won't be bet down.

$1 Late Pick 4

6,9/4,6/2,4,7/1,2
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-09-2025, 06:16 AM

Scott Shapiro: Saratoga Saturday Late Pick 5 Analysis | Aug. 9

August 8, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

The turf takes center stage on Saturday at Saratoga with the Sword Dancer (G1) set to go as Race 10 on a 12-race card that kicks off at 12:35 PM eastern. As always, there are plenty of horizontal wagers available on top of the WPS and vertical ones, including the late Pick 5 that includes both the feature and the Saratoga Oaks (G2). It looks tough to get creative in several spots, so I will try to hit this thing multiple times.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 8:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 8 Surveillance; 2 Damon’s Mound
Backups: None

Forecast: #2 Damon’s Mound is the one to beat in this optional claimer over the main track. The son of Girvin never really lived up to expectations after an eye-catching debut at Churchill Downs. That said, the 5YO gets significant class relief after being pressed by Mullikin throughout the running of the Vanderbilt (G2) and tiring late last month. A step forward from that run and they are probably running for second. I do think #8 Surveillance is in with a shot though to spring the mild upset. The 8YO has danced a lot of dances earning over $1.1M through 47 lifetime start, but has hit the board in 5 of 8 this year. The blinkers come back off the Linda Rice trainee who should get a favorable trip under Kendrick Carmouche.

Race 9: Saratoga Oaks (G2)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Laurelin
Backups: 5 Totally Justified

Forecast: #6 Laurelin finds another great spot after an easy win as the odds-on public choice in the Penn Oaks in late June. The Zarak filly has been well campaigned by trainer Graham Motion and gets her first shot at a graded stakes score. She has proven form over both a turf with give in it, as well as over a firm course and looms the clear one to beat. #5 Totally Justified though is also worth a look, especially if Laurelin gets over bet. She stalked and tired last out in the Belmont Oaks (G1), but two-back ran huge finishing second to Fionn in the Regret (G3) at Churchill Downs. She broke her maiden over this course last August and could get overlooked in the wagering.

Race 10: Sword Dancer (G1)
Grade: X
Main Ticket: 6 Far Bridge
Backups: None

Forecast: #6 Far Bridge has been a machine of late rattling off 3 of 4 this year and now 9 of 18 overall for trainer Miguel Clement. The son of English Channel won this race last year, has an affinity for this course, and should get a favorable forward trip in a race that lacks serious early speed types. He will be very tough to beat If he able to run back to any of his recent efforts over this course.

Race 11:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Practical Lov
Backups: 3 Alyeska

Forecast: #1 Practical Lov looks like a tough customer in her first start versus winners for Hall of Famer Bill Mott. The daughter of Practical Joke broke sharp in her second career start over this surface on July 5, stalked just off the pace, and powered home late to an easy 3-length score. The rail draw is not ideal, but I am not overly concerned since she has been so good out of the gate most of her career. A repeat of her last and they are running for second. #3 Alyeska though should have a move forward in here after a poor return effort in early July. The Vekoma filly commanded $675k at the Keeneland November 2024 Horses of Racing Age sale, but was flat in her first start for trainer Chad Brown. She is the one likeliest to benefit if Practical Lov has traffic issues.

Race 12:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 10 Charles J; 2 Amplitude
Backups: None

Forecast: The card concludes with this state-bred first-level allowance at 9-furlongs on the grass where the pace is likely to be honest if not fast. #2 Amplitude is the one likeliest to benefit from the probable race shape. The Klaravich Stables colt lacks speed and has just one victory in four starts, but should get a great setup in his first start at the Spa. He is the one to beat, but I also like #10 Charles J. The blinkers go on this 4YO gelding after a third-place effort versus similar last month. Irad Ortiz Jr. returning to ride for this lower profile barn has to be seen as a positive.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-09-2025, 06:16 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #7

#3 Final Boss	Hoping his pace will be dangerous enough to see this one through, as he stayed on OK behind a winner I really liked last time out. Wouldn't be a shock in a good spot.
#2 Gold Phoenix	I think pretty highly of this guy and have given him a look in a handful of those recent starts with better, but I wonder if this is a time to try to beat him -- he's going to give the jump to a couple of capable players. In the mix.
#6 Air Force Red	Wanted to see something a touch better from him late in the last one, but the overall form fits with a perfect pressing trip waiting for him off the top choice.
Race Summary	Final Boss meets a good group here, but I think he can control the tempo long enough without pressure to find something left late. Lots of respect for Gold Phoenix on form and class -- wouldn't argue too hard with you if you want to bank on that being enough to get him home today.

Del Mar - Race #9

#5 Watchtower	Willing to take a bit of midrange price swing here as she comes back for her first try since January, and the company lines of Be Your Best and She Feels Pretty from her last two races are just far superior to almost any other names on any of the pages here. Think she might be an OK fit with these.
#1 Hang the Moon	Her form soured a bit late last year after landing a couple of graded spots in upset scores, but she comes back fresh with a baseline effort that would put her in the picture today. Honestly, not a ton of enthusiasm here for me, but she wouldn't be a surprise.
#2 Heredia	Finisher tries the local course for the first time with some OK, if unexciting, form on her page from the two starts out east. Reliable runner should fire again.
Race Summary	Watchtower needs better than we saw from her in the last two, but she's racing fresh today with a couple of serious names in her company lines -- I'm hoping this group will feel just a tiny bit more welcoming.

Del Mar - Race #10

#8 Amelia's Echo	Think she has some price appeal in a race without a ton of finishing form, as she steps back into CA-bred special weight company. Might get an OK run of things while overlooked.
#9 Surfin Candy	Check out this fresh face on the tote and track ahead of this, as there isn't a whole lot to worry about on paper from those who have raced. Could probably land this without being a statebred star.
#5 Tiger Fire	Like her the most of the forward players with some upside while getting back over to the dirt. Mild worry that she'll flatten out late, but she looks like one of the ones.
Race Summary	Amelia's Echo heads back out west for this spot, and she may be ready for something a bit better with a potentially flattering race shape waiting for her.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-09-2025, 06:17 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#5 DATE NIGHT KISSES (3-1)	Proven miler is controlling speed on the class drop for Ness.
#4 CAROLL GIRL (6-1)	Bid to lead on turn, ran third, can improve 12/5-3-2 Delaware mark.
#3 CHELSEA WALL (2-1)	‘Kisses’ stablemate loves to win, steps up seeking third in a row.
Race Summary	DATE NIGHT KISSES, part of an uncoupled entry for leading trainer Jamie Ness, holds a class and tactical advantage at a distance which she finished first or second in 6 of 10 starts. She faded from up close in a longer route race won by next out repeater Sandpiper Memories (11-48, $245k), but she can control the pace better in this spot. Bet to win and place and play 5-3 and 5-4 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #2

#1 BELLA CREED (15-1)	Has speed and the rail, got beat a length by a next-out winner.
#2 SAVANNAH GEORGIA (8-1)	Worked a bullet on Parx dirt, has done the least wrong in here.
#6 FONTABELLE (9-5)	Showed zip in MSW sprint, sheds weight, runs for cheapest tag yet.
Race Summary	BELLA CREED, hustled away from post 10 to play the lead role for the first time in her career, battled until she gave way in the stretch. She draws the rail today, sheds 8 pounds as the light-weight in the field and is worth a win and place bet at 15-1 on the morning line. Also play a 1-2-6-8 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#6 QUALIFIED HIRE (12-1)	Rough trip in latest, price stab at suitable distance, barn going well.
#2 ARANCIATA (9-2)	Romped twice going long in June, slow start proved costly as beaten fave in latest.
#5 PRETTY THING (7-5)	Led at stretch call in last four turf starts, held for a win and two seconds.
Race Summary	QUALIFIED HIRE rallied for third at this level when Cruz was aboard three starts back at 5-1/2F, but she was no threat in a fast-paced follow-up and ran into trouble last out. She could be well-suited to today’s 7-1/2F distance and offers plenty of value for a win and place bet and a 2-5-6 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-09-2025, 06:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 1	Leg 1 of the Tropical Turf Pick 3
Maiden Claiming $35,000 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Age 2 • CR: 55 • Purse: $35,000 • Post: 3:27P
GP - R6 - (RAIL AT 52 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $35,000. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE TAPETA COURSE AT FIVE FURLONGS)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. LITTLE TORCH is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LITTLE TORCH: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MU NCHKIN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	LITTLE TORCH	8/1	3/1
4	MUNCHKIN	4/1	7/2
3	CHANCE TO PARTY	5/2	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	SNAPPY COMEBACK	5	3/1	Front-runner	0	0	85.3	44.6	41.1
3	CHANCE TO PARTY	3	5/2	Front-runner	79	69	68.7	44.7	40.7
1	LITTLE TORCH	1	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	95.7	47.4	41.4
4	MUNCHKIN	4	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	76.9	44.2	40.2

Unknown Running Style: BRAT GIRL (15/1) [Jockey: Morelos Jose E - Trainer: Smullen Heather], CORONATION DAY (6/1) [Jockey: Vasquez Miguel Angel - Trainer: Fawkes David], BARONIA (15/1) [Jockey: Maragh Rajiv - Trainer: Zanelli Jr Dante], FULANITA (20/

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-09-2025, 06:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Tillamook County Fair
PURCHASE

Tillamook County Fair - Race 3	$2 Win, Place, Show $2 Quinella / $2 Trifecta ($1Tri Box)
Allowance • 220 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 63 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 12:30
QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * CPR MYFAVORITEWAGON: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CARTERS SNEAK: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it g ets out of the gate fast. LITTLEROCKINRUNAWAY: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). GOKATIGO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TS JESS ATT ACK: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	CPR MYFAVORITEWAGON	9/2	6/1
6	CARTERS SNEAK	5/1	6/1
1	LITTLEROCKINRUNAWAY	6/1	7/1
5	GOKATIGO	3/1	7/1
4	TS JESS ATTACK	5/2	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LITTLEROCKINRUNAWAY	1	6/1	Slow	77	60	7.5	0.0	0.0
2	CPR MYFAVORITEWAGON	2	9/2	Average	75	61	5.2	0.0	0.0
3	NO WHOA JESS GO	3	4/1	Slow	67	53	6.1	0.0	0.0
4	TS JESS ATTACK	4	5/2	Average	62	60	5.4	0.0	0.0
5	GOKATIGO	5	3/1	Slow	69	54	7.7	0.0	0.0
6	CARTERS SNEAK	6	5/1	Fast	68	61	2.5	0.0	0.0