Sunday 8/10/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2025, 08:05 AM

Scott Shapiro: Sunday's Bet $100, Get $10 Ellis Park Picks

August 10, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

Saturday was all about the grass racing at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet with the promotional focus on the big turf races at Colonial Downs. Hopefully, some of you were able to piece together the late Pick 4 and take advantage of the Hit & Split. On Sunday, we move to the “Pea Patch” where Ellis Park runs its biggest dirt races of the summer. The Ellis Park Derby and Groupie Doll headline a 10-race card in Henderson, Kentucky and once against 1/ST BET and Xpressbet have a must-play offer to opt into. This time it is simple. Register on the promotional landing page, bet $100 on the Ellis card, and get $10. All bet types are eligible for the promo! Here are a few horses I like later today on the Ellis Park Derby card.

Race 5:

There is not much speed in this two-turn MSW event over the Ellis grass. I am hopeful that will benefit #8 Lady Lilylou. The Uncle Mo filly makes her third career start for trainer Tom Drury, Jr. after a better than looks fourth over this course last out. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. had her in a perfect ground saving spot much of the way, but struggled to find room on the rail mid-stretch and was forced to alter course. She was a bit headstrong early in that race and showed tactical speed suggesting she might find her way to the front in a race with less early speed. Whether she makes the lead this afternoon or sits just off, I like her chances to outrun her odds in lifetime start number 3.

Play: #8 Lady Lilylou (12-1 ML)

Race 8: Ellis Park Derby

#8 Admrial Dennis and #6 Big Truzz are listed as the morning line favorites in this year’s $300,000 event for 3YOs over Ellis’ one-mile configuration. If you are not familiar, this one-mile dirt course is much like the Wilson Chute at Saratoga in that it is best described as 1 1/2-turns. I prefer Admiral Dennis of the two likely top public choices, but both are far from unbeatable. With the scratch of original top choice #4 Retribution, I will opt to roll with the “other” Brian Lynch trainee #3 Jimmy’s Dailys. The son of Vekoma has been well meant since the get-go, but did not have things his way in his two tries as a juvenile. He turned that around though in January with an impressive win going 7-furlongs against MSW foes at Gulfstream and followed it up with a good second to Grande in his first start against winners. He was outrun in the Florida Derby (G1) and has been on the sidelines since. The Donald Dizney LLC homebred has been working forwardly in Louisville and should get a favorable off the pace trip under jockey Mario Gutierrez.

Play: #3 Jimmy’s Dailys (5-1 ML)

Race 9: Groupie Doll

#1 Alpine Princess is likely to be sent off a prohibitive favorite in this $200,000 race for fillies and mares once again over the one-mile dirt configuration. The Classic Empire filly comes in off a wire-to-wire win at Horseshoe Indianapolis when she had everything her way, including a track that favored her voyage. She can win, but I am willing to let her beat me at her likely price. I will try with last year’s winner #6 Pigalle. The Claiborne Farm homebred has an affinity for this surface evidenced by her two wins and a second in three starts. I am willing to toss her effort in the Chicago (G3) last out against better since she cost herself any real chance as a 33-1 longshot at the start. Assuming she breaks well, she should be in a prominent spot early under regular rider Luan Machado. Hopefully, she can make it back-to-back years in the biggest dirt race of the meet for the ladies and make it a big day for trainer Tom Drury, Jr.

Play: #6 Pigalle (9-2 ML)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2025, 08:06 AM

Jeremy Plonk: $268K Carryover Pick 5 / Mandatory Payout at Prrm

August 10, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

Sunday night’s Prairie Meadows card features a mandatory payout in the late pick 5 with a massive $268,692 carryover. Races 7-11 comprise the sequence, beginning around 7:33 pm ET. Through the Betmix database, I was able to identify several hot jockey and trainer angles in recent weeks as the Prairie Meadows meet winds through a long, May-September summer stand.

Race 7: claiming
Good options abound in this 7-horse dash at 5-1/2 furlongs and it could be the most competitive race of the sequence – and I’ll go deep while looking to beat the 5-2 morning line favorite #6 Classic Cinema in his first local bid after racing on the bullring in Tulsa. #4 State School Smart is my top choice with speed to burn via Columbus and a local victory on his ledger the last time at Prairie Meadows. Red-hot jockey Walter De La Cruz taking the mount is notable. #5 True Prodigy is one of 3 entrants here for trainer Kelli Martinez, has won back-to-back, and rider Alberto Pusac’s presence indicates likely the barn’s best. #2 Hasty Flyer reunites with veteran rider Ken Tohill, who notably is a 20% winner with a positive ROI in these 5-1/2 furlong dashes at the meet. #3 Prints Money might be a cut below, but the late threat in a race loaded with speed – although closing at Prairie Meadows is not the preferred style.

Race 8: starter allowance
Strong lean here to #1 Time to Sing at 7-2 morning line, who dropped once to the max level to be eligible for this race and was a runaway winner over the track and distance. Trainer Tim Martin has been hot in recent weeks, but I’ll get some secondary coverage with the Tom Wellington-trained Strolltothemarket (3-1 morning line). That barn is 13: 4-3-2 locally since July 15 and Wellington takes over the training on this freshened gelding for the first time. Would be no surprise if there’s a big move forward off the bench. The morning line chalk #4 Rockin Boots has been more of a lifer around the $30,000 level and has no edge to accept a short price – try to beat him.

Race 9: allowance / optional claiming
The inside trio in this 2-turn affair look clearly best in a field of 7. #2 Happy Strike (4-1 ML) gets top billing for a smoking-hot Dewaine Loy barn that’s 10: 5-2-1 since July 15 at Prairie Meadows. This gelding drew clear late last out in a field that included a return allowance winner Tee Off Time who contested Saturday night’s Cyclones Stakes. #1 Winnemac Avenue makes his Prairie Meadows debut for veteran Jimmy DiVito and ships from his Chicago homebase. The gray has run well off layoffs on occasion and fits well with these as the likely favorite. Kevin Eikleberry’s barn has been strong all season, going very well in recent weeks, and drops multiple stakes winner #3 Time to Fly (3-1 ML) in class. Cannot discount his chances whatsoever.

Race 10: allowance
#1 Rome’s Conquest (7-2 morning line) could be potentially loose on the lead, and early speed is a premium over this track. If #4 Cash Fever fails to break off a 16-month layoff, a reasonable scenario exists that Rome’s Conquest outfoots this crew with most of the variables of racing luck removed. Plus, he’s a 4-year-old against several key contenders that are 3. #6 Brownstone did rally to pass Rome’s Conquest last out and would be no surprise to do it again for a Dan McFarlane barn that’s 6: 3-2-1 since July 15 locally. Not wild about a rider change and a closer over this track, but there is a solid case to be made for Brownstone in the matchup. #2 Mickswagger is the 2-1 morning line favorite off his win in the Prairie Mile and subsequent pace-pressing try in the Iowa Derby when fifth. Both wins have come around 2 turns and he’ll have to get in gear to sprint to victory vs. elders, but he’s a better class than many of these.

Race 11: claiming
Six of the 9 entered here exit the same July 19 race for this class and distance. That race was 30-1, 12-1, 16-1 across the board for a trifecta that paid more than 2,000-to-1 odds. That’s a vote of no confidence. The fresh face in this spot to watch is class-dropping #9 Gisele’s Map (8-1 morning line odds). I’m drooling to get near that price on a filly who has been facing tougher. Veteran horsemen Kelly Von Hemel hits 30% when he gets Walter De La Cruz to ride and it’s a notable rider change to a pilot winning 31% locally since July 15. Blinkers also come off, and her better races last year all were without them. Bold single regardless of price.

Suggested ticket:
4,5,2,3 with 1,3 with 2,1,3 with 1,6,2 with 9 = $36 for 50 cents

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2025, 08:06 AM

Al Cimaglia: The Red Mile Late Pick 4 Analysis

August 10, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

The Red Mile has a 16-race card under the lights with a first post of 5:05 PM EDT. The $1.00 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 6. It has a $7,500 guaranteed pool with a low 12% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (6:45 PM EDT)

1-Tan Lines Hanover (6-1)-Didn't have enough juice down the lane last time to finish any better. Probably accomplished what the connections wanted and didn't get the smoothest of trips. Put in a flat line and now could be ready for a more aggressive drive at a square price.
2-Chicanery (9/2)-Lost the lead down the lane but did race well in its Lex debut. Rolled the last 1/2 in .55. and Andy McCarthy sticks. This is the 2nd start in the Per Engblom barn and should come with a better effort tonight.
3-Hope Hill (9/2)-Beaten 8/5 chalk will have Dexter Dunn at the controls and should be in the hunt at the wire. Was used a couple of times in last and may get a smoother trip this time. Will probably be bet down but still using and will fade Naughty Beauty the (2-1) choice.

Race 7 (7:05 PM EDT)

2-Mistertenahkey (7-1)-Using the price shot and anticipating Pat Curtin will be leaving for a close-up seat with this post draw. Has only 1 win in 31 Lex races but it did come recently and against this kind. This is a suck-around candidate at a big number.
8-Gotta Go Gram (7/2)-It has been a good year for the 4-year-old winning 7 of 20 races. Ships in from ScD and should fit well with this field. Has good tactical speed and will look for Marvin Luna to have in play off the car.

Race 8 (7:25 PM EDT)

4-King Of Metal AS (9/2)-Will toss the first 2 starts in town, was in tall cotton then drew post 10. The 4-year-old is winless at the Red Mile but has finished 2nd twice. Could be overlooked, Luna can work a covered trip and be rolling late.
7-No Lou Zing (2-1)-Last week, TMac took the lines and Lou finally woke up, drawing off against this kind. Now moves outside but if it as good that won't matter. Could double up but can't fully trust.

Race 9 (7:45 PM EDT)

6-Always By The Sea (5/2)-Started slowly last time and finished in hurry to cash a 2nd place check against this kind. That was 1st time Dunn, and he is back. This will be the 2nd race in the Steve Carter barn and will look for the upswing to continue.
9-Lets Justin Turtle (7/2)-This is the 2nd start in the Series and drew off in last as the odds-on choice. Yannick Gingras should have the Burke pupil in play early on and look to be the best down the lane.

$1 Late Pick 4

1,2,3/2,8/4,7/6,9
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2025, 08:07 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #3

#2 Dreaming of Alys	She's got a lot to move forward here if she's going to handle the rail runner, but I liked how she looked in the debut score and think this is an interesting follow-up spot. Enough to like at something like the 7/2 ML offering.
#1 Himika	I guess she's supposed to land this -- not much to argue about with the sharp debut score, but I just think the race is potentially more competitive than her likely price suggests.
#3 Mo' Em Down	She could find herself in a really good spot to start forcing the issue with Himika if that one isn't firing a big one, and I get the feeling she might progress into a nice one.
Race Summary	Dreaming of Alys was sharp at first asking, and she should get a great run while tracking the speed. Think this is a fun race to watch with some nice fillies lined up.

Del Mar - Race #7

#3 Bit's Tiger Magic	I'm curious to see how the pace plays out here with a handful of forward players who typically go longer -- can see this one finding a much more natural, tactical spot right up near the top, giving her rider some options for placement. Think she's a handful today.
#1 Silent Law	Turnback player didn't stay in her turf debut last out, but she'll get out of stakes company for the first time since her debut score. She's probably the next most likely forward player.
#7 Miss Roberts	Never really know when she's going to show up with a big one, but a lot of those flatter tries on her page have come with better groups than she's going to find here. Feel like I'd probably want a touch better price than I think she's going to offer.
Race Summary	Bit's Tiger Magic should find a great spot -- wherever that is. She can sit up top if needed but can also prompt the speed if one of the cutback pace players wants to have a go for it. I think you single?

Del Mar - Race #9

#2 Aleramo	Think the winner of her last will turn out to be OK, and there are a couple of races on her page that would do the trick today if she can stay on form. Graduation day.
#3 Inner Fury	She has turned into an honest enough type at this kind of level, and her baseline run right now would probably keep her in the mix.
#8 Frog	Speed could be a danger up top while stretching out for this, and she's another who has found the right kind of fit here.
Race Summary	Aleramo looks the part here while getting down in class for this one going second off the break, and she has a couple runs on the page that could get her home here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2025, 08:09 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 4	Pick 4 (4-7) / Pick 3 (4-6) / Exacta / Trifecta / Daily Double 4-5
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 4:00P
FOR NATIVE THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 10 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 10 ALLOWED 3 LBS. 4# A INFERIORES Y DEBTS ALLOWED 4 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. REFLEXIVO is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * REFLEXIVO: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ha s the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
1	REFLEXIVO	5/2	8/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	REFLEXIVO	1	5/2	Front-runner	75	66	65.0	62.8	59.3
3	RADIOLOGO	3	2/1	Front-runner	48	38	46.8	34.8	26.3
4	ORO CATORCE	4	4/1	Front-runner	13	21	15.2	19.9	10.4
6	EL TESTARUDO	6	3/1	Stalker	36	35	37.2	29.0	19.5
5	GOLPEADOR	5	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	73	73	59.1	61.0	56.5
2	EL DON CARLOS	2	9/5	Trailer	70	67	37.4	47.0	41.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2025, 08:09 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Cross Country Pick Four
PURCHASE

Cross Country Pick Four - Race 1	Leg A of the Cross Country Pick 5
Optional Claiming $20,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $55,000 • Post: 4:13P
MTH - R8 - (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $20,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.;OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 10 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 10 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (MAIDEN CLAIMING OR RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $14,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. WINKIWINKI is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WINKIWINKI: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5	WINKIWINKI	2/1	5/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	WINKIWINKI	5	2/1	Front-runner	86	77	93.4	76.8	74.3
7	MONEY MAGNETTES	7	12/1	Front-runner	69	66	89.9	60.4	49.4
1	DON'T LISTEN	1	8/1	Front-runner	72	71	71.0	62.6	50.1
6	GLORIOUS LADY	6	7/2	Stalker	79	70	71.6	72.5	58.5
8	MISSY SIXTYSIX	8	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	71	47.2	75.4	69.4
4	BERTIE'S CAUSE	4	10/1	Trailer	85	74	52.0	73.8	67.3
2	TAPRIXIE	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	82	72.0	65.4	53.9
3	AWESOME PIC	3	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	71	57.2	72.0	65.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2025, 08:10 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ellis Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Stakes - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $200000 Class Rating: 104

GROUPIE DOLL S. - FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE-YEARS-OLD AND UPWARD. FREE NOMINATION, $500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND $500 ADDITIONAL TO START. SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATIONS MAY BE MADE AT TIME OF ENTRY BY PAYMENT OF $1,500 $100,000 GUARANTEED PLUS AN ADDITIONAL $100,000 KTDF FOR KTDF ELIGIBLE HORSES. AFTER PAYMENT OF 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 ALPINE PRINCESS 2/1
# 6 PIGALLE 9/2
# 7 TAXED 7/2

I've got to go with ALPINE PRINCESS. Must be given a shot here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this filly. Recorded a solid speed figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this contest. PIGALLE - Has to be carefully examined versus this group displaying solid figures lately and an average speed figure of 94 under similar conditions. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Drury running at this distance are the most competitive in this group of horses in this race. TAXED - With a quite good 98 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will surely be a factor in this race. Must be carefully examined given the class of races run lately.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2025, 08:10 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Del Mar - Race #8 - Post: 5:33pm - Optional Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $81,000 Class Rating: 100

Rating:

#3 SIR ROCKET (ML=5/1)
#5 MINISTER SHANE (ML=6/1)
#9 DEVIL AMONG US (ML=7/2)

SIR ROCKET - Won his last after shipping in. I like him again. Smith should have him moving strong on the turn. This gelding is at the top in earnings per start (EPS). Check out this horse in the post parade. Three consecutive improved speed ratings (97-100-102) make this horse a dominant contender. MINISTER SHANE - Gaines brings him right back. I propose you stay with this strong gelding. DEVIL AMONG US - Comes out of a last race against 'open' company on Jul 25th and faces what I believe are easier 'state breds' today. I'll forgive that last performance on July 25th when he was beaten as the public choice. That race was pretty good for a $32,000 Claiming race and this gelding's speed rating was solid. I have to believe that this shorter distance should help this gelding. The most recent speed rating of 104 is the highest last race speed figure in the field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 TITANIC THOMPSON (ML=4/1), #10 LETMEIN (ML=5/1),

TITANIC THOMPSON - I predict a setback for this horse in this race. LETMEIN - Should have at least hit the board in the last sixty days in a sprint clash to be worth the chance at nominal odds in a sprint. Don't think this steed will do much running in today's race. That last speed figure was common when compared with today's class rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 SIR ROCKET is going to be the play if we are getting 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[3,5,9] with [3,5,9] with [3,5,8,9,11] with [3,5,8,9,11] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2025, 08:10 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Wyoming Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 84

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 LEVON 4/1
# 5 TENFORTHEBIGGUY 2/1
# 3 GUN POWDER 6/1

LEVON looks to be a very strong contender. With a nice class figure average of 91, has one of the best class advantages in this field. With Coates getting the mount, watch out for this horse. Coates has strong numbers that point to this gelding to be a strong contender. TENFORTHEBIGGUY - With one of the most favorable jockeys in terms of profits at the window, don't count this gelding out. With Valenzuela uptop him, this gelding ought to be able to break out early for this race. GUN POWDER - Is tough not to look at given the company run in recently. Sound average speed figures in dirt sprint races make this pony a key contender.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2025, 08:11 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race #8 - Post: 4:53pm - SO - 10.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $60,000 Class Rating: 99

Rating:

#2 FIGHTER IN THE WIN (ML=8/1)
#4 ONE MORE BREW (ML=2/1)

FIGHTER IN THE WIN - Have to give this horse a good chance. Ran a sharp effort last out within the last month. Nicholls and Morden perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +103 ROI for a jockey and trainer. This horse has been training well, and the recent bullet work says he's primed for a big race today. Last ran at Woodbine and finished fourth. Reviewing his past performance data, I see he was close at the finish, within five of the winner. ONE MORE BREW - Rider hops right back aboard after getting to know the horse by riding last race out. That's always a green light. This thoroughbred has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 89 to 92 to 95 in succession.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SOULMATE (ML=5/2), #5 BREAKING ALONE (ML=7/2), #6 MEDIA SENSATION (ML=6/1),

SOULMATE - This closer looks to have slight chance without an early battle up front. Has been beaten as the public's choice twice. A repeat is probably in store. BREAKING ALONE - This gelding is always in the money, but just doesn't get the job done. Tough to play him on the front end. MEDIA SENSATION - Hard to put any dough on this gelding on the win end. Likes to land in the top three though. This entrant will have a tough time winning this 1 1/4 miles turf race. He just doesn't win races very often.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - ONE MORE BREW - You got to like this horse against this competition. He has the top turf number off his last race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 FIGHTER IN THE WIN on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2025, 12:22 PM

Del Mar Hotlist - August 10

Aug. 10, 2025

Today’s Del Mar Hot List races to watch
Sunday, Aug. 10, 2025
By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (1) Balboa was third in his debut but should move forward here. (4) Noble Testament is an interesting firster. (5) Huber may improve on dirt. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5. Doubles: 1-4-5 with 1-2-6.
2nd race – (1) Lyle the Crocodile rallied strongly for third and should work out a win from the rail. (2) Cali Cat exits a stakes and looks like the main rival. (6) Mythical Reel merits attention in this field. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-6.
4th race – (8) Andtheomofthebrave can bounce back with a big try after a weak effort last time. (1) Jaguar Jon may like turf. (4) Re Armed Jon was a sharp debut winner and merits a close look. (5) Special Club may perk up back on turf. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-5-8.
6th race – (6) The Big Cheesola missed by a neck last time and should handle this field. (2) Zombo Bombo missed by a head last time and is the main foe. (1) Shady Appeal will benefit from a rail trip. (4) Known Idea won in his last start on dirt. Betting strategy: 6to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-4-6.
8th race – (5) Minister Shane was a good third in his comeback race and deserves top billing. (8) Titanic Thompson lost by a head and looms as the one to fear. (9) Devil Among Us cannot be ignored in this field. (1) Runkerry will be helped by a ground-saving trip. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-8-9.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2025, 12:23 PM

Saratoga Hotlist - August 10

Aug. 10, 2025

Today’s NY Hot List races to watch – Sunday, August 10, 2025 at Saratoga (Day 24)
By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [Md Sp Wt, 1 mi] – (1A) Worthy Charge (A) lunged at the start of his debut then rallied for third against a strong field on a speed favoring track. (4) Chillax (B) shied away from the winner’s crop in the stretch and finished second as the favorite. Blinkers go on. (7) Momentum Files (A) stumbled at the break following a winter layoff but moved close to the front, then dropped back, only to rally to finish third beaten by just a neck. (3) Fun to Tap was last seen in November at Aqueduct running second in his second career start and gets first-time Lasix now.
2^nd race [Clm 30000 N3L, 1 1/8 mi] – (1) Le Gris makes a big drop in class to run for a tag and in a restricted condition for the first time in his career. He raced in allowances and stakes with only one start that did not pick up a check. (6) Leftembehind will also make the move into the claiming ranks with a win in a NY-bred allowance to his credit. (2) Mr. Ripple won an allowance at Finger Lakes last month following a three-month layoff. In 2023 he finished fourth in the Florida Derby (G1). (7) Who’s the King was a clear front-end winner of the N2L condition as an odds-on favorite and got claimed.
4^th race [Md Sp Wt, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (5) Final Score (A) made his debut in a race that was meant for the turf, broke inward, dropped back, and rallied for second in a sprint. (6) Positive Equity makes his debut for a trainer that is having a strong meeting with debut 2-year-olds. He sold for $100,000 by a stallion with a $5,000 fee. (4) Epic Desire was second last month in a race that came off the turf. (7) Time to Strike shows a recent turf workout following a fourth-place finish at 8-1 in his first start at Saratoga in July.
9^th race [Mahoney, 5 ? F TURF] – (9) Governor Sam won the Quick Call at Saratoga last month. He also won three stakes last year and was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. (3) Saturday Flirt won 3 out of 4 starts for Wesley Ward including the Soaring Softly at the Spa in June. His only loss was during his trip to Royal Ascot where he dwelt in the starting gate. (5) Ortley Avenue was second in a pair of turf sprint stakes in his last two starts. (8) Gabaldon broke his maiden in a stakes race at Gulfstream Park and then finished second at Royal Ascot. He was last seen in March running third in a stakes at that Florida track.
Best bets: Worthy Charge (1^st); Governor Sam (9^th). Best value: Le Gris (2^nd); Final Score (4^th).

No.	Name	Letter/ last race	Today's Race	Comments
(1A)	Worthy Charge	A on 7/4	1	Lunged at the start of his debut and rallied for third.
(4)	Chillax	B on 7/13	1	Shied from the winner’s crop and ran second.
(7)	Momentum Files	A on 6/28	1	Stumbled, dropped back, and rallied to miss by a neck.
(5)	Final Score	A on 7/13	4	Rallied for second in a race carded for the turf but was run on dirt.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2025, 12:24 PM

Saratoga Tip Sheet - August 10

Aug. 10, 2025

Race #1
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 01:10 PM ET
Best Bet #1A WORTHY CHARGE
$100,000.00

Race 1 Maiden Special Weight

Win	2-1	1A	Worthy Charge	F Prat
Place	5-2	4	Chillax	J Alvarado
Show	7-2	3	Fun to Tap	I Ortiz Jr.
Wild card	4-1	7	Momentum Files	J L Ortiz
Alternate 1	8-1	2	Limo	J R Velazquez
Alternate 2	2-1	1	Peak Performer	J Rosario

Exacta 1-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/4 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 01:42 PM ET
Best Bet #7 WHOS THE KING
$48,000.00

Race 2 Claiming

Win	5-1	7	Whos the King	J L Ortiz
Place	5-2	2	Mr. Ripple	J Rosario
Show	2-1	1	Le Gris	L Saez
Wild card	9-2	6	Leftembehind	R R Maragh
Alternate 1	6-1	5	First of His Name	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	15-1	3	Solo Empire	F Prat

Exacta 7-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/7 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
Race #3
Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:14 PM ET
$110,000.00

Race 3 Allowance

Win	9-2	2	Innate	R Santana Jr.
Place	2-1	5	Waralo	J Rosario
Show	7-2	4	Tap to Mischief	J Lezcano
Wild card	6-1	7	After Taxes	J Alvarado
Alternate 1	9-5	9	Caribbean Wind	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	3-1	8	Voila Magic	Rider TBA

Exacta 2-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/5 BOX, 4/5/7 BOX
Race #4
Inner turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 02:53 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 4 Maiden Special Weight

Win	5-2	5	Final Score	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	8-1	4	Epic Desire	J R Velazquez
Show	5-1	7	Time to Strike	J L Ortiz
Wild card	9-2	2	Boss Henry	F Prat
Alternate 1	8-1	6	Positive Equity	M Franco
Alternate 2	12-1	8	Spherical	R Santana Jr.

Exacta 5-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
Trifecta 4/5/7 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX
Race #5
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:28 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 5 Maiden Special Weight

Win	4-1	5	Essential Coffee	J L Ortiz
Place	5-2	8	So Vain	J Rosario
Show	3-1	4	Memorized	F Prat
Wild card	9-2	6	Lovely Christina	J R Velazquez
Alternate 1	5-1	3	Carmel Coast	K Carmouche
Alternate 2	20-1	2	Everytimeithinkofu	M Franco

Exacta 5-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
Trifecta 4/5/8 BOX, 4/6/8 BOX
Race #6
Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 04:07 PM ET
Best Bet #12 SPIRIT OF THE LAW
$50,000.00

Race 6 Maiden Claiming

Win	5-2	12	Spirit of the Law	J Alvarado
Place	9-2	4	Powered by Coal	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	6-1	9	Makeyourmoment	R R Maragh
Wild card	8-1	13	Prince of Dance	J Castellano
Alternate 1	12-1	15	Wind Dancer	D Davis
Alternate 2	8-1	10	Rossbeigh	J Rosario

Exacta 12-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX, 9-13 BOX
Trifecta 4/9/12 BOX, 4/9/13 BOX
Race #7
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:40 PM ET
$38,000.00

Race 7 Claiming

Win	2-1	3	My Two Sophias	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	8-1	6	Dream On Cara	E Cancel
Show	9-2	8	Five to Two	D Davis
Wild card	6-1	1A	Moonlit Weekend	M Franco
Alternate 1	8-1	2	Rodeo Star	J Rosario
Alternate 2	5-1	9	Valentine Gift	R Santana Jr.

Exacta 3-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX
Trifecta 3/6/8 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX
Race #8
Inner turf 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 05:17 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 8 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	2-1	8	Conman	J L Ortiz
Place	10-1	2	Mo Trump	L R Rivera Jr.
Show	5-1	1	Slapintheface	M Franco
Wild card	6-1	6	Russian Realm	J Rosario
Alternate 1	3-1	11	Crimson Light	Rider TBA
Alternate 2	10-1	5	Coinage	K Carmouche

Exacta 8-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/8 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX
Race #9
Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:50 PM ET
Best Commentary $175,000 MAHONEY STAKES GRADE III
$175,000.00

Race 9 Stakes

Win	1-1	9	Governor Sam	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	10-1	5	Ortley Avenue	E Cancel
Show	8-1	6	No Evidence	M Franco
Wild card	6-1	3	Saturday Flirt	L Dettori
Alternate 1	8-1	8	Gabaldon	J L Ortiz
Alternate 2	10-1	7	Ancient World	L Saez

Exacta 9-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
Trifecta 5/6/9 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
COMMENTS: GOVERNOR SAM won two of two at Saratof and five of eight at the distance. ORTLEY AVENUE will go towards the front and try to stay there. NO EVIDENCE finished in the money in all five at the distance. SATURDAY FLIRT won all three US starts with her only miss at the Royal Ascot.
Race #10
Dirt 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 06:23 PM ET
$110,000.00

Race 10 Allowance

Win	4-1	6	Pandagate	D Davis
Place	3-1	2	Classicist	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	6-1	7	Chileno	R Santana Jr.
Wild card	20-1	9	Mikealicious	L Saez
Alternate 1	7-2	1	Tuscan Gold	F Prat
Alternate 2	8-1	11	Hop Sing	J L Ortiz

Exacta 6-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX
Trifecta 2/6/7 BOX, 2/7/9 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2025, 12:24 PM

Ellis Park Tip Sheet - August 10

Aug. 10, 2025

Race #1
Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 12:50 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 1 Maiden Special Weight

Win	5-2	7	Late Night Text	J A Torres
Place	5-1	4	Kenz	T Gaffalione
Show	9-5	2	Best Friend	B J Hernandez Jr.
Wild card	12-1	3	Blackwing	J R Leparoux
Alternate 1	12-1	9	Shot At Perfection	E Morales
Alternate 2	12-1	5	Flower Stone	K J Asmussen

Exacta 7-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/7 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX
Race #2
Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:19 PM ET
Best Bet #6 MISTER MMMMM
$104,000.00

Race 2 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	9-2	6	Mister Mmmmm	T Gaffalione
Place	4-1	4	Bushido	O Mojica
Show	8-1	1	Suncroft	C A Torres
Wild card	5-1	7	Bad Beat Brian	C A Emigh
Alternate 1	5-2	5	Go Captain	C J Lanerie
Alternate 2	6-1	8	Johnny Podres	S Camacho Jr.

Exacta 6-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/6 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
Race #3
Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:48 PM ET
Best Bet #1 ZEUSS ECHO
$100,000.00

Race 3 Maiden Special Weight

Win	9-2	1	Zeuss Echo	T Gaffalione
Place	3-1	10	Shes On a Roll	V Espinoza
Show	4-1	5	Mr. Vaggio	W A Rodriguez
Wild card	10-1	4	Wolfcamp	B J Hernandez Jr.
Alternate 1	12-1	11	Patrol Squad Six	C J Lanerie
Alternate 2	6-1	12	Vintur	C A Torres

Exacta 1-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
Trifecta 1/5/10 BOX, 4/5/10 BOX
Race #4
Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:16 PM ET
Best Commentary $200,000 DEBUTANTE STAKES
$200,000.00

Race 4 Stakes

Win	9-2	5	Prowess	B J Hernandez Jr.
Place	1-1	1	Kingsolver	T Gaffalione
Show	6-5	4	Chopsticks	F Geroux
Wild card	15-1	6	Boom Boom Bell	G Saez
Alternate 1	30-1	3	Red Beretta	E A Roman
Alternate 2	30-1	2	Mescat	J N Hernandez

Exacta 5-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX, 4-6 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/5 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX
COMMENTS: PROWESS fought hard to win her debut and has a bullet workout since. KINGSOLVER already has a win at this level. CHOPSTICKS ran the highest last race speed figure in her debit. BOOM BOOM BELL upped her speed figure in both races after her debut.
Race #5
Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 02:44 PM ET
Best Bet #9 STRONG DESTINY
$100,000.00

Race 5 Maiden Special Weight

Win	9-2	9	Strong Destiny	T Gaffalione
Place	4-1	16	Running Game	B J Hernandez Jr.
Show	3-1	7	Good Game	F Geroux
Wild card	12-1	13	Dawn After Dawn	A Concepcion
Alternate 1	5-1	1	Agia Marina	D Sheehy
Alternate 2	12-1	12	Les Is Best	C A Torres

Exacta 9-16 BOX, 16-7 BOX, 7-13 BOX
Trifecta 7/9/16 BOX, 7/13/16 BOX
Race #6
Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:12 PM ET
Best Commentary $200,000 JUVENILE STAKES
$200,000.00

Race 6 Stakes

Win	1-1	6	Comport	T Gaffalione
Place	3-1	1	Papa Ken	B J Hernandez Jr.
Show	7-2	5	Spice Runner	K J Asmussen
Wild card	8-1	2	Shake and Rattle	J A Torres
Alternate 1	20-1	4	Longstrider	E Morales
Alternate 2	8-1	3	Street Player	G Saez

Exacta 6-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
Trifecta 1/5/6 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX
COMMENTS: COMPORT ran faster despite going longer in his last. PAPA KEN needs typical second race improvement to compete here. SPICE RUNNER could be poised for a major rebound in his third career start. SHAKE AND RATTLE has enough late run to challenge at the wire.
Race #7
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 03:42 PM ET
Best Commentary $200,000 COWBOY JONES STAKE
$200,000.00

Race 7 Stakes

Win	6-5	5	Banishing	S Camacho Jr.
Place	4-1	1	Tumbarumba	T Gaffalione
Show	5-2	2	Cagliostro	B J Hernandez Jr.
Wild card	20-1	4	Prince of Power	J Padron-Barcenas
Alternate 1	12-1	7	Three Technique	R Bejarano
Alternate 2	6-1	3	This Is Uscar	E Morales

Exacta 5-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/5 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
COMMENTS: BANISHING scored a triple digit speed figure in six of his last seven races. TUMBARUMBA produced better race internals from gate to wire last out. CAGLIOSTRO could improve a little to a lot in the second up. PRINCE OF POWER dominated in his last and makes the third start after a layoff.
Race #8
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 04:12 PM ET
Best Commentary $300,000 ELLIS PARK DERBY
$300,000.00

Race 8 Stakes

Win	10-1	7	Big Boat	O Mojica
Place	8-5	8	Admiral Dennis	L Machado
Show	5-2	6	Big Truzz	T Gaffalione
Wild card	9-2	4	Retribution	B J Hernandez Jr.
Alternate 1	5-1	3	Jimmys Dailys	M Gutierrez
Alternate 2	15-1	2	Sinister Smile	E Morales

Exacta 7-8 BOX, 8-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
Trifecta 6/7/8 BOX, 4/6/8 BOX
COMMENTS: BIG BOAT is a longshot with a chance coming off a six length win in his first try at Ellis. ADMIRAL DENNIS upped his speed figure in five straight. BIG TRUZZ has plenty of upside and back class. RETRIBUTION ran considerably faster despite going longer in his last.
Race #9
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 04:42 PM ET
Best Commentary $200,000 GROUPIE DOLL STAKES
$200,000.00

Race 9 Stakes

Win	9-2	6	Pigalle	L Machado
Place	2-1	1	Alpine Princess	T Gaffalione
Show	10-1	9	Too Much Kiki	A Concepcion
Wild card	7-2	7	Taxed	R Bejarano
Alternate 1	5-1	8	Impel	F Geroux
Alternate 2	8-1	5	Regaled	J D Ramos

Exacta 6-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-7 BOX
Trifecta 1/6/9 BOX, 1/7/9 BOX
COMMENTS: PIGALLE won six of nine at the distance and two of three at Ellis. ALPINE PRINCESS hit the board in nine of ten on a fast track. TOO MUCH KIKI won four of her last five races. TAXED is a consistent performer that is capable of making big moves.
Race #10
Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:12 PM ET
Best Commentary $200,000 AUDUBON OAKS
$200,000.00

Race 10 Stakes

Win	6-1	6	Princess Proud	J A Torres
Place	4-1	7	Mendela	B J Hernandez Jr.
Show	6-1	9	Impulse Buy	T Gaffalione
Wild card	12-1	12	Hollygrove	J D Ramos
Alternate 1	2-1	1	Vodka With a Twist	C A Torres
Alternate 2	20-1	4	Volleyballprincess	F Geroux

Exacta 6-7 BOX, 7-9 BOX, 9-12 BOX
Trifecta 6/7/9 BOX, 7/9/12 BOX
COMMENTS: PRINCESS PROUD improved noticeably in both races since her debut. MENDELA should be better in the second start off the sidelines. IMPULSE BUY hit the board in four of five on a fast track. HOLLYGROVE drops from a pair of Grade IIIs and has plenty of early pop.