Monday 8/11/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2025, 06:06 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

August 11, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

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Yonkers Raceway has a 9-race card to begin the week. The $1.00 Pick 5 has a $4,190.60 carryover which bolsters the guaranteed pool, and it is now $15,000. The $2.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 6, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (8:25 PM EDT)

1-Shakespear (5/2)-It is difficult to not use the Jared Bako trainee at this level and leaving from the 1-hole. Should get a cozy trip and comes back in sequence tonight.
4-Sling Shock (2-1)-Went gate to wire to beat the $40K claimers 2 back and then raced well versus $60k claimers but did fade down the lane. Tyler Buter should have the pedal down and if so, will likely get the top and play catch me f u can.

Race 7 (8:45 PM EDT)

3-Verdun (3-1)-The Pat Lachance 4-yr-old knows how to compete at this level. It would be no surprise to see Mr Lachance blast out and try to control the mile from start to finish.
4-Heza Charttopper A (7/2)-Using the 2nd and 3rd chalks in this race. The 5-year-old has been competitive versus this kind and shows a win on April 7 going gate to wire. Colin Kelly has options and needs to provide a sharp steer. Could look to leave hard for the lead and land in a good early seat or rally off cover Either way, options are a good thing.

Race 8 (9:05 PM EDT)

4-Diego N (5-1)-Beat the $75k claimers with a big effort in last. Flew off the gate and worked hard to land on the point into a 26.4 opening quarter. Then got a nice breather with 29.2 second quarter and stayed in control to the finish. Has cashed checks before against the Invites. Now is in a spot to seal the deal at a solid price if lands in a close-up seat off the car.
5-Chase H Hanover (4-1)-The Corey Stratton veteran has banked over $278K this year. But hit a rough patch recently. Was bet down to 4/5 versus this kind and lost all chance making a rare break at the start. Then in a qualifier at M1 broke stride again. Last week with the trainer in the bike went 151.4 at PcD to easily win a qualifier. Could offer value at the 4-1 morning line price and will take a swing the breaking issue has been solved.
6-Soho Firestone A (9/2)-This is only the 11th start this year but has hit the board in 8 races and has taken 3 pictures. The 6 yr old likes to race off cover and that is an option here, and there should be an honest pace. Has finished 2nd in the last 2 and this race could set up nicely for the Dilloian trainee. That outfit has won at a 31% clip over the last 30 days.

Race 9 (9:25 PM EDT)

1-Mac’s Delight (9/5)-Beat this kind leaving from post 7 in last and now draws all the way inside. That doesn’t make the Tom Cancelliere entry a lock but should be difficult to beat. The 5-year-old likes to win, taking 4 pictures in 12 starts. Plus has 4 second place finishes and has hit the board in 10 of 12 this year. This outfit is clicking over the past month with a 29% win rate.

$2 Late Pick 4

1,4/3,4/4,5,6/1
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2025, 06:17 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#4 Fillyrules	Liked that cutback effort last out when staying for second at this level, and she should be in line for another good trip while racing up close throughout.
#5 Nun Gimel Hay Po	Finisher fits well enough on paper here, but I worry that she'll be along too late again in this spot and have to settle for another share. In the mix.
#8 Never Enough	Dropper has never tried this soft a spot, but I worry that she'll have to hustle to keep up at this shorter trip. Doesn't seem overmatched, but have same concerns as the previous one -- she's going to show up too late?
Race Summary	Fillyrules looks the part here after bouncing back nicely while turning back last time out, and she probably graduates today if she can just hold that form.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#7 Surly Furious	He's a fairly legit fringe stakes type right now and handled a couple synthetic stakes scores at Turfway last year. Could see him making some noise today on the surface switch at an OK price.
#8 He's a Mess	Recent form is sharp, but he has only beaten six horses in those last two races combined and gets a much tougher test today. Still, think he's in for part of this.
#6 Grounded	Class try for this one who has been sharp in starter and allowance spots, including a couple easy local scores since returning this season. Tough call.
Race Summary	Surly Furious has a few decent names in his company lines, and he has historically done really good work on synthetic footing. Think he checks a lot of the right boxes today.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#10 Jazz Time Girl	Her form so far this season is underwhelming, but she seems capable of better and could reverse form today at an OK price. Hoping she can get back to some of those better runs here last season.
#8 Momentous Miss	Tactical type fits well here and is another who can show better than she did last time out. Think she's a player, but also wouldn't want a short kind of price at all in a competitive spot.
#4 Sugar Treat	The Florida synthetic form is a bit spotty, but there are some running lines that would keep her in the picture here while trying a softer group than she has seen in a bit.
Race Summary	Jazz Time Girl hasn't done much in those last two, but she was pretty honest here last year and could be ready for something better today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2025, 06:17 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Ellis Park - Race #1

#4 ONMYWAYTOSAVTHDAY (8-1)	Live longshot off runner-up finish two back, gets Gaffalione.
#1 RED HOT JEANIE (7-2)	Romped at Belterra, gave way chasing torrid fractions for $20k at Churchill.
#2 COASTLINE HOTTIE (3-1)	Floated 7-wide in well-bet try against ‘Jeanie,’ gets Bejarano.
Race Summary	ONMYWAYTOSAVTHDAY earned her top speed figure in her second start for this barn two starts back, finishing a distant second at one mile. But she did it for a higher claiming price against a 1-to-5 winner who came back with an easy allowance victory. Bet to win and place and play 4-1 and 4-2 exactas.

Ellis Park - Race #5

#9 HOT MASH (9-2)	Has the works, has the bloodlines to start paying off on $375k purchase.
#4 LADY NVIDA (10-1)	Team Asmussen firster kept busy in July with strong set of 5F workouts.
#8 VANISH (6-1)	Scratched from also-eligible list in same spot Saturday, sire is #26-ranked on turf.
Race Summary	HOT MASH fired bullet workouts at Monmouth and Turfway Park from the gate for Parx-based trainer John Servis. Now the $375,000 sales buy shows up here for her debut. Her sire, Not This Time, is the No. 3-ranked turf sire this year with $3.3 million in progeny earnings. Bet to win and place and play a 4-8-9 exacta box.

Ellis Park - Race #6

#7 COMMANDED (4-1)	Will have to step it up a notch in three-peat attempt for new connections.
#3 TRUE PASSION (9-5)	Herded out late in 4-path, just missed as the favorite, one to beat.
#4 KENTUCKY SMOKESHOW (5-2)	Disputed fast pace and held on to win $80k claimer at Churchill.
Race Summary	COMMANDED tracked a slow pace and drew clear to a repeat victory at this distance. She steps up off the claim by Amoss and will have much more pace to rally into if she’s good enough. Bet to win and place and play 7-3, 7-4 and 3-7 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2025, 06:18 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown
PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 1	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.20 Superfecta $.50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5)
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 58 • Purse: $35,800 • Post: 12:50
FOR ACCREDITED OHIO FOALS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 11 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. CORFU FIGHTING is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CORFU FIGHTING: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
1	CORFU FIGHTING	4/1	8/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
10	DIXIE'S MEMORY	10	7/2	Front-runner	47	51	57.2	49.0	43.0
1	CORFU FIGHTING	1	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	66	65	84.6	62.0	57.0
5	PROFESSOR NICK	5	15/1	Stalker	58	46	60.2	46.6	35.1
7	LAST MINUTE MIKEY	7	8/1	Stalker	42	49	47.9	37.0	20.5
4	RIVER BYE	4	9/2	Stalker	36	52	37.4	46.0	35.0
9	HEZA PISTOL	9	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	62	50	51.9	45.1	33.6
2	RUN PANCITA	2	10/1	Trailer	35	42	30.1	38.3	24.3
3	MOBIL MISSION	3	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	54	52	28.2	48.0	38.5
6	SMOKIN JOE	6	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	52	50	41.4	43.0	30.5
8	STRIKE PLATE	8	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	54	47	32.0	44.0	34.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2025, 06:18 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie
PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 1	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta 20 Cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3), 20 Cent Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Claiming $4,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 61 • Purse: $13,500 • Post: 4:30P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SHAMELESS AFFAIR is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SHAMELESS AFFAIR: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" desig nation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. LEGS LIKE FLATTER: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating a t the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
1	SHAMELESS AFFAIR	7/5	2/1
5	LEGS LIKE FLATTER	2/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	BAD ZEZE	3	12/1	Front-runner	59	44	51.1	34.3	24.3
1	SHAMELESS AFFAIR	1	7/5	Alternator/Stalker	74	66	62.4	60.4	57.4
4	NIGHTSABER (GB)	4	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	59	56	49.4	48.6	41.1
5	LEGS LIKE FLATTER	5	2/1	Alternator/Trailer	72	66	40.2	56.5	51.5
2	LAST GLIMMER	2	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	56	43.0	52.8	48.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2025, 06:18 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #8 - Post: 9:55pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,900 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#7 TAKE MY ALLOWANCE (ML=8/1)
#3 BE ON NOTICE (ML=12/1)

TAKE MY ALLOWANCE - Several positive 'sensations' connected with this campaigner and his barn. BE ON NOTICE - Really have to figure this horse is going to be on the money at the finish line.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 WEEKEND FLAME (ML=3/1), #10 PERFECT MOON (ML=4/1), #4 STEVIE T (ML=9/2),

WEEKEND FLAME - The fifth place finish in the last affair was not the best. PERFECT MOON - 4/1 is not enough of a reward to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back efforts. You always believe this equine has a shot to cross the finish line in first, but he falls short often. STEVIE T - Ran a great speed figure in the last race, but the effort will probably take too much out of him.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #7 TAKE MY ALLOWANCE on the win end if we get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2025, 06:18 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $26500 Class Rating: 81

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 SHE'S GRAND 3/1
# 6 I'M KIDDING 2/1
# 2 MONTAUK MYSTIQUE 6/1

My choice in this event is SHE'S GRAND. Overall the Speed Figures of this pony look very strong in this race. This filly has a strong win percent in dirt sprint races. The Equibase Speed Figure of 81 from her latest race looks decent in here. I'M KIDDING - Will most likely compete very well in the early pace contest which bodes well with this group. The average Equibase class rating alone makes this entrant a definite contender. MONTAUK MYSTIQUE - Has to be considered versus this group of horses in this race displaying very good figs as of late and an average speed figure of 54 under similar conditions. Barrow has a sound 17 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2025, 06:19 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Stakes - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 100

AVERY WHISMAN MEMORIAL S. - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 FOREVER SOUPER 5/2
# 6 GROUNDED 3/1
# 2 BIG TO DO 20/1

FOREVER SOUPER looks like the wager in here. Is tough not to look at based on Equibase Speed Figs which have been quite good - 100 avg - of late. With a nice class figure average of 104, has one of the most favorable class advantages in this group of animals. Has to be given a shot versus this group displaying formidable figures as of late and an average speed fig of 102 under similar conditions. GROUNDED - Risk takers should probably note that this animal runs now going off Lasix today. With Montanez uptop him, this gelding should be able to break out sharply in this event. BIG TO DO - Look for a formidable pace improvement from this equine who enters now going off Lasix today. Could beat this group of animals given the 100 speed figure recorded in his last outing.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-11-2025, 06:19 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race #4 - Post: 5:29pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#1 CREEKSIDE (ML=4/1)
#3 SMOOTHDINI (ML=3/1)
#5 ZONG TOUGH (ML=5/2)

CREEKSIDE - Always be careful of the longer priced horse when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let him get away early they probably won't catch him. Ranked number 1 in earnings per start. Another indicator that this horse is the class of the field. SMOOTHDINI - This gelding looks good today. Hasn't done much lately, but did win a $5,000 Claiming race on February 13th. Strong win percent this rider and trainer duet have been putting together. ZONG TOUGH - Entered last at Louisiana Downs in a race with a class rating of 92. Dropping significantly in class figure this time around puts him in a solid position in this event. That 83 fig this gelding recorded in his last event tells me he's a main player this time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 OVERANALYTICAL (ML=9/5),

OVERANALYTICAL - This morning-line choice ran on July 4th and hasn't had a work since. This questionable contender has been a bummer for the bettors as the favorite time and time again. A closer like this one needs an early battle to set things up and he isn't likely to get one in this one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #1 CREEKSIDE on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	1 with [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass