Saturday 8/16/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-13-2025, 09:18 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saturday’s King’s Plate at Woodb

August 12, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

Canada’s most important horserace, the 166th edition of the King’s Plate, returns to Woodbine on Saturday. The mile and one-quarter test over the Tapeta synthetic surface is first leg in the Canadian Triple Crown and restricted to those horses foaled in the country. Woodbine’s stacked undercard includes five additional stakes, headlined by the Grade 1 $750,000 E.P. Taylor for fillies and mares on the turf.

Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet be sure to take part in Saturday’s $3,000 Exacta-Thon promotion for Woodbine’s card.

Let’s meet the contenders for the King’s Plate:

#1-MANSETTI. 3-time local stakes winner of the Clarendon, Woodstock and Grade 3 Marine most recently in open company on his first stretch-out. Collected colt has won 4 of 7 overall for trainer Kevin Attard, who has won 2 of the last 3 King’s Plate editions (Moira 2022, Caitlinhergrtness 2024). Pietro Moran, leading the current Woodbine jockeys’ standings, is listed to ride both this one and stablemate Faber, decision pending.

#2-WILLIAM T: $45,000 yearling buy by Frosted broke his maiden by 6 lengths last out in his fourth lifetime start and will be tested for class. Don MacRae trains and turns the reins over to David Moran after Fraser Aebly opted for the more accomplished Notorious Gangster.

#3-NOTORIOUS GANGSTER: Coronation Futurity and Queenston Stakes winner rallied for second in the July 20 Plate Trial as the 9-5 favorite. Trainer Josie Carroll owns 3 victories in the Plate (2006 Edenwold, 2011 Inglorious, 2020 Mighty Heart) and gets regular rider Fraser Aebly back aboard the Classic Empire colt.

#4-SCORCHING: Mo Town colt captured the Simcoe and Cup and Saucer Stakes to close a successful, 3-race juvenile campaign. His summer preps include a runner-up in the Grade 3 Marine and third-place effort in the Plate Trial for trainer John Charalambous. American-based rider Jose Lezcano replaces John Velazquez in the saddle as the latter opts to ride No Time in the King’s Plate.

#5-MYTHICAL MAN: Gelded son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Mucho Macho Man heads north of the border for the first time from his Saratoga summer base. 2024 Belmont Stakes-winning trainer Danny Gargan has gotten only one race out of this Gulfstream allowance winner this season, a seventh-place effort in Saratoga’s Grade 3 Manila Stakes on turf July 4. Jockey Sofia Vives knows her way around Canadian royalty, piloting former Horse of the Year Patches O’Houlihan with success.

#6-FABER: Longshot by Improbable has dropped all 4 decisions in allowance company this year after splitting his winter at Turfway and Fair Grounds stateside. Kevin Attard trainee was out of the money in all 3 stakes bids at Woodbine as a juvenile. Attard has won 2 of the last 3 King’s Plate editions (Moira 2022, Caitlinhergrtness 2024). Pietro Moran, leading the current Woodbine jockeys’ standings, is listed to ride both this one and stablemate Mansetti, decision pending.

#7-RUNAWAY AGAIN: Trainer Sid Attard aimed this Hard Spun gelding to the King’s Plate following his July 13 debut maiden victory. He cruised by more than 9 lengths that day at 8-1 odds over 1-1/16 miles – a race rained off the turf. US Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano takes the mount for the first time in search of his first Plate victory. Both Attard and Castellano have finished second twice in the King’s Plate. Home-bred for Stronach Stables.

#8-DEWOLF: Last year’s Bull Page Stakes winner looks to snap a 5-race losing skid that includes a sixth-place disappointment in the Plate Trial. Son of Silent Name had been second or third in 4 straight stakes prior, 3 times as the favorite. Kevin Attard has won 2 of the last 3 King’s Plate editions (Moira 2022, Caitlinhergrtness 2024). Champion US jockey Flavien Prat traveled here to win the 2019 KP aboard One Bad Boy and takes the mount aboard Dewolf for the first time.

#9-WATSONVILLE RED: Longshot was out of the money at big prices in the Grade 3 Marine and Plate Trial at 58-1 and 34-1 odds. Trainer Mike De Paulo has managed 1 win from 8 starts with this gelded son of Hard Spun, that coming under regular rider Leo Salles. De Paulo has orchestrated a pair of King’s Plate third-place finishes in his career.

#10-NO TIME: Woodbine Oaks winner looks to ride the recent success of fillies in the Plate, including Caitlinhergrtness a year ago (the 39th filly all-time to win). Mark Casse has turned that trick twice in his 3 Plate victories (’14 Lexie Lou, ’18 Wonder Gadot, later the colt ’23 Paramount Prince) – with John Velazquez guiding Wonder Gadot. Velazquez came north from Saratoga to pilot this daughter of Not This Time in the July 20 Oaks and also rode her to her maiden win in September 2024 when visiting for Woodbine Mile Day. Posted a faster Woodbine Oaks-winning time than the colts did in the same-day Plate Trial. Half-sister to US Grade 1 winners Ransom the Moon and Count Again.

#11-TOM’S MAGIC: Mike Stidham brings this son of US Triple Crown winner Justify to Woodbine for the first time from his Delaware Park base. Tom’s Magic won twice this winter at Fair Grounds, including the Black Gold Stakes. He bounced back from a troubled trip at Keeneland to win Monmouth’s Tale of the Cat Stakes on June 28 as the favorite. Rafael Hernandez won last year’s King’s Plate aboard Caiitlinhergrtness, his third in the race (also Shaman Ghost in 2015 and Moira in 2022) and takes the call on this colt for the first time.

#12-SEDBURYS GHOST: Son of 2015 Plate winner Shaman Ghost has won 3 of his last 4 starts, including the Plate Trial at 7-1 odds on July 20. He was an early 2-year-old in 2024, running in May and June before going on the shelf for nearly a full calendar year. Trainer Barb Minshall got improvement out of him after a close-up fourth in the Marine and regular rider Ryan Munger is back in the saddle. The veteran Minshall was third in the 1995 Plate with her eventual millionaire stable star Mt. Sassafrass.

#13-ASHLEY’S ARCHER: 3-time Plate winner Mark Casse has delivered but 1 victory from 7 starts with this Karakontie colt. That win came back in September and his current, 5-race losing streak includes a pair of allowance runner-ups in 2025 at the head of the ledger. Regular rider Sahin Civaci will be in the irons in search of his first King’s Plate score after finishing second a year ago aboard Casse’s odds-on favorite My Boy Prince.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-13-2025, 09:18 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saturday’s Alabama at Saratoga

August 11, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Kentucky Oaks, Black-Eyed Susan and Acorn winners get their first career showdown against one another in the Grade 1 $600,000 Alabama Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga. How the season’s top 3-year-old fillies match up in this mile and one-quarter test of stamina could be tell-tale in the race for the Eclipse Award at season’s end.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Alabama (Race 10):

#1-MARGIE’S INTENTION: First of 2 Brad Cox trainees in the lineup, the former Brendan Walsh charge won Pimlico’s Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan in 2her first start for the new barn and followed that up with a second-place effort in the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks as the favorite. Daughter of Honor A.P. is 6-for-7 in the exacta lifetime and expected to employ a late-running style. The last Black-Eyed Susan winner to capture the Alabama was Stopcharginamaria in 2014 – prior to that Royal Delta in 2011. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has a pair of Alabama wins (2012 Questing, 2022 Nest).

#2-GOOD CHEER: Ran her win streak to 7 to open her career when drawing clear late to tally the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. But the balloon burst in her most-recent effort, a fifth-place run in the Grade 1 Acorn at Saratoga at 30 cents on the dollar in the betting. Brad Cox and jockey Luis Saez look for the bounce-back effort in hopes of landing their first Alabama. Sire Medaglia d’Oro, who also has Nitrogen in this lineup, was responsible for 2016-’17 Alabama winners Songbird and Elate. The last Kentucky Oaks winner to add the Alabama was Princess of Sylmar in 2013 – prior to that Blind Luck in 2010.

#3-KINZIE QUEEN: Third-place finisher in the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan and Grade 3 Delaware Oaks gets a rematch with familiar foe Margie’s Intention. The former $50,000 claim last November is 4: 0-0-2 in stakes and will be making her first Grade 1 appearance for Delaware-based trainer Greg Compton. Jockey Junior Alvarado’s dream season aboard Sovereignty got some just desserts last Saturday when piloting Fort Washington to the Grade 1 Arlington Million title on the road at Colonial Downs. Sire McKinzie has had stakes winners Chancer McPatrick and Scottish Lassie – as well as Jim Dandy runner-up Baeza – already shine at the 2025 Saratoga summer meet.

#4-NITROGEN: 17-length winner of the 3-runner Wonder Again Stakes gets back on dirt for the only time other than that sharp effort on a sloppy track. The multiple Grade 2 winner on turf saw her 5-race win streak narrowly snapped last out when second by a nose on grass as the 2-5 favorite in the Belmont Oaks Invitational. Joins Mark Casse stablemate La Cara in the lineup Saturday and may be sitting second to that one in the early going. Jose Ortiz won 3 straight Alabama editions from 2017-’19 (Elate, Eskimo Kisses, Dunbar Road). Sire Medaglia d’Oro, who also has Good Cheer in this lineup, was responsible for 2016-’17 Alabama winners Songbird and Elate.

#5-QUEEN AZTECA: Runner-up as the heavy favorite against the boys last out in the Swedish Derby over 1-1/2 miles, she provides a total X-factor to the Alabama. She won the Group 2 UAE Oaks at Meydan in February and has won 4 of 9 racing in Norway, Sweden and the United Arab Emirates. American racing syndicate Team Valor privately purchased her just prior to the Swedish Derby and brought the Kentucky-bred daughter of Cigar Mile winner Sharp Azteca home to race and will transfer to trainer Rudolphe Brisset. Joel Rosario piloted Alabama winners Blind Luck (2010) and Randomized (2023).

#6-LA CARA: Expected Alabama pacesetter exits a winner-to-wire win in Saratoga’s 1-1/8 miles Grade 1 Acorn and also wired the 1-1/16 miles Grade 1 Ashland earlier this year at Keeneland. Folded in the Kentucky Oaks when tiring to ninth, some 13 lengths behind Alabama foe Good Cheer as part of a hot-and-cold resume that shows 5 wins from 11 starts. Daughter of 2007 Travers winner Street Sense, who negotiated 10 furlongs at the highest level locally. The last filly to win the Acorn and Alabama was eventual Hall of Famer Open Mind in 1989 (Acorn had been raced at 1 mile through 2022). Trainer Mark Casse also sends out Nitrogen on Saturday, and he’ll give the return call to this filly’s exclusive 2025 season pilot Dylan Davis.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-14-2025, 06:53 AM

Fun in the Sun Tourney: 2 Past Champs Now Seated at Final Table

August 13, 2025 | By 1/ST BET

The Xpressbet ‘Fun in the Sun’ handicapping tournament has just 5 past Final Table champions on its honor roll, and now 2 of them have already qualified for the 2025 contest’s main event. Wayne Tam, the 2021 FITS champion, earned a return seat this past Saturday during Week 4 of the Saratoga and Del Mar tourney. He joins 2020 victor Robert Rosen, who earned his Final Table return berth by winning Week 2 of the contest.

The Fun in the Sun progressive jackpot now stands at $13,015 with 3 qualifying rounds still to play. A total of 20 slots have been filled among the 35 available seats for the Final Table – which include Dennis Desenberg becoming 2025’s first dual-qualifier after Week 4 added to his Week 2 berth.

Mark Vrabel paced all players last week with a $298 mutuel total on his 10 total contest plays at Saratoga and Del Mar. He earned the $1,050 weekly top prize. Dennis Desenberg was second ($271, earned $437.50 in prizes) and Daniel Young was third ($193, earned $262.50 in prizes). Among the top-5, which all earned Final Table berths, were Edward Peters and Wayne Tam (tied at $181 each).

Fun in the Sun challenges bettors to make $10 Win bets on 5 specified contest races each at Saratoga (last 5 races on the card) and Del Mar (first 5 races on the card). Players compete each week for cash prizes, plus a coveted seat at the $10,000-added Final Table on Labor Day.

Last season, Gordon Maruya was the runaway winner of the $15,782 final table in the FITS competition and bagged $8,680 in prize money. It was Maruya’s third final table appearance (also qualifying in 2021 and 2023).

The Final Table format was created in 2020 and its winners have included Robert Rosen (2020), Wayne Tam (2021), Kevin Saunders (2022), Joe Tambasco (2023) and Gordon Maruya (2024).

//

2025 Tournament Dates
Saturday, July 19, 26
Saturday, August 2, 9, 16, 23, 30
Monday, September 1 (Final Table)

Buy-In

$125 Buy-In per week, split between $100 Bankroll + $25 Entry Fee

How to Play

Tournament consists of the last five (5) races each Saturday at Saratoga and the first five (5) races each Saturday at Del Mar
Players must make a $10 Win bet on one (1) horse in each race via the Contest Wagerpad

Weekly Prize Pool

70% of Entry Fees are paid out each week as the Weekly Prize Pool

Weekly Prizes

Top Five (5) finishers each week automatically qualify for the Final Table
1st Place Finisher – 60% of Weekly Prize Pool + Final Table Seat
2nd Place Finisher – 25% of Weekly Prize Pool + Final Table Seat
3rd Place Finisher – 15% of Weekly Prize Pool + Final Table Seat
4th Place Finisher – Final Table Seat
5th Place Finisher – Final Table Seat

Final Table Prizes

30% of Entry Fees carried over to the Final Table
$10,000-added prize pool courtesy of Xpressbet
1st Place Finisher: 55% of Final Table Prize Pool
2nd Place Finisher: 25% of Final Table Prize Pool
3rd Place Finisher: 10% of Final Table Prize Pool
4th Place Finisher: 5% of Final Table Prize Pool
5th Place Finisher: 5% of Final Table Prize Pool

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-15-2025, 06:16 AM

Scott Shapiro: Alabama Day Pick 4 at Saratoga | Saturday, 8/16

August 14, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

Travers Day is rapidly approaching, but there is still plenty of great action to be had this weekend where it is Alabama Day in upstate New York. The Grade 1 race for 3YO fillies is conducted at the classic mile and one-quarter distance and is part of the late Pick 4 sequence that kicks off with and concludes with a turf sprint. Hopefully, we can have a big weekend and pad our bankroll for the biggest day of the meet a week from Saturday.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 9: Skidmore
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Schwarzenegger; 8 Spirit of New York; 7 Bobrovsky
Backups: 2 Sandal’s Song

Forecast: Things get rolling with this 5.5-furlong dash for 2YOs over the Saratoga grass where #2 Sandal’s Song is the deserving 2-1-ML favorite. The Mendelssohn colt overcame a slow start to win going away in the Royal Palm Juvenile in his first start before trying extremely hard to the wire in his third-place effort at Ascot in the Norfolk (G2). If he runs back to that performance overseas in June, this group is in trouble, but it has only been two months since the voyage. It is fair to question whether swallowing a short price is the best choice.

At the time of publication of this blog, #1 Schwarzenegger was entered for a maiden race on Thursday. If it does not go for whatever reason he will run in this spot. Do not overlook the $900k FTS August 2024 purchase just because he has not raced yet. He can run. If he runs Thursday afternoon, I will use two horses in hopes of beating Sandal’s Song. #8 Spirit of New York put forth a big middle move and finished well to win going away in his first start. He takes on much tougher, but draws to the outside again, which should give jockey Jose Ortiz options out of the gate. #7 Bobrovsky also intrigues. Dale Romans has had a great meet with limited starters and there is reason to believe this Daredevil colt will take to the surface switch based on his bottom side pedigree. At 6-1, he is definitely worth using on all tickets.

Race 10: Alabama (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2 Good Cheer
Backups: None

Forecast: The featured event only drew a field of six, but it is an intriguing race nonetheless in large part due to the presence of #4 Nitrogen. The D J Stable homebred has been awesome since returning to the races as a 3YO for trainer Mark Casse. The Medaglia d’Oro filly has done almost all of her work on the grass, but put on a clinic over the slop two-back in the Wonder Again (G3) leaving the thought that she could be very good on dirt as well. It gets a lot tougher today against this group and she may be an underlay, but her talent is undeniable.
At first, I thought this race would set up once again for the other Mark Casse filly #6 La Cara, but the more I dove in it seems unlikely she walks on the lead in this one. #1 Margie’s Intention may not be as fast early, but she can make her work with the advantage of the inside draw in an attempt to set things up for her stablemate #2 Good Cheer. The Godolphin homebred entered the Acorn (G1) a perfect 7 for 7, but failed to fire over the sloppy going that afternoon. It was not pretty, but was also forgivable given the conditions and the race shape. She has been training forwardly over the Saratoga main track and appears poised to bounce back in a big way on the stretch out in distance. If the pace is honest, she will be very tough to hold off late.

Race 11:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Mo Go; 9 Sky Masterson
Backups: 1 Assertiveness

Forecast: I thought the morning line favorites were a bit vulnerable in this non-winners of two over the inner turf. #1 Assertiveness is tough to totally omit since he gets a favorable inside draw on the drop in for a tag for the first time, but he is going to take a lot of money. Therefore, it is worth noting that trainer Todd Pletcher is just 3 for 28 over the last 2 years with a $0.70 ROI when dropping turf horses in for a tag for the first time. This colt has been a major disappointment making him tough to fully trust on the clearance rack.

The Ortiz brothers have dominated the summer meet at Saratoga, so I will ride them here in hopes of taking down the two chalks. #5 Mo Go has only raced on the grass going long once and it was his lone victory. Trainer Linda Rice moves the colt back to the turf in his first start under her care and legs up Irad. Jose picks up the mount on #9 Sky Masterson, who is tougher to get excited about on form. That said, he drops in class and has hit the board in 6 of 14 over the lawn.

Race 12:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Spoken Bluntly
Backups: 4 On the Ledge

Forecast: #1 Spoken Bluntly looks capable of winning right back on the move into the state-bred allowance ranks after a win in his first start under the care of veteran conditioner Bruce Levine in June. The son of Frank Conversation draws the inside and retains Kendrick Carmouche. He will be tough, if he avoids getting caught up in an early battle. If he does hopefully #4 On the Ledge can work out the perfect trip. The 5YO has earned 3 career victories, including a win in his first start on the grass in late June. Ideally, jockey Christopher Elliott will find himself in the second tier like last out against similar.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2025, 06:12 AM

Al Cimaglia: Gold Cup & Saucer Late Pick 4 Analysis

August 16, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Charlottetown at Red Shores will be the host for the 66th running of the Gold Cup & Saucer which will roll in Race 15. Eight older pacers will compete for a share of a $100,000 purse. The 0.20 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 12, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Xpressbet account holders who register can win a share of 1 Million 1/ST Reward Points. The Hit and Split Promo will be on wagers for the Late Pick 4 sequence at Charlottetown on Saturday, which covers races 12-15. Hit the Pick 4 and you will be eligible for a share of 1 Million 1/ST Reward Points!

Race 12 (9:50 PM ADT)

4-House Edge Hanover (7/2)-Raced from the back after leaving from post 7. Did roll the 2nd half in .57 and should relish the post relief. Has won 9 of 14 at Chrtn, should be racing with the leaders and be in the hunt at the wire.
5-Avatar J (5/2)-Beat 3 from this field last week and that win came from post 1. Made it look easy last time, and this could be more of a challenge. But draws another choice post, should get a close-up seat and looks like a double-up possibility.

Race 13 (10:10 PM ADT)

2-Malevolent (5/2)-Went off at 1/9 and looked the part going gate to wire in snappy in 152.3 and closed it out with a 27.1 last panel. Has won 6 of 7 at Chrtn, draws inside again, and it looks like the race will go through the team Langille colt.
5-Evil Lou (7/2)-Lou needs a trip to win but is competitive and might be somewhat overlooked here. Has some gate speed and if lands near the top of the stack off the gate backers could be rewarded.

Race 14 (10:30 PM ADT)

1-Rosetown Mary (3-1)-Has 2 second place finishes in both local races and now gets a chance to start from post 1. Does its best work from the pocket or on the point, and that trip could be part of this plan.
3-Avyanna (5/2)-Fired really hot off the bench and has won all 3 starts this season all of them coming at Chrtn. Likes the oval, not missing the board in 6 races and has posted 4 wins. This is the one to beat and with a smooth trip the win streak can continue.

Race 15 (11:15 PM ADT)

1-Arbitrage Hanover (8-1)-Raced okay last week after being 12 lengths behind at the 1st call and accomplished what was needed leaving from post 7. Wasn't going to beat either of the top two finishers (3-8) with that trip but cashed a 3rd place check. That was the first time racing on the Charlottetown oval and should be ready for a top effort. Billy Davis Jr can work an efficient trip and shouldn't be hung the mile this time. The fractions could be hot, if in striking range, this is a quick 4-year-old that could pick up the pieces and pop at a nice price.
3-Miki Shan N (5/2)-Miki has won 6 in a row, is a perfect 3 for 3 at Chrtn and set a lifetime mark of 150.1 last week. Doesn't need to lead every step of the way to take a picture. But from this post should be in control early on. Strange things can happen in the Saucer, but this colt could race even faster this week. This is the one to beat and will be a small price.

$2 Late Pick 4

4,5/2,5/1,3/1,3
Total Bet=$32

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2025, 06:12 AM

Scott Shapiro: King's Plate Exacta-Thon Woodbine Plays | Sat.

August 15, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

One of 1/ST BET and Xpressbet’s most popular promotions is back for one of the biggest days on the racing calendar in Canada. The $1M King’s Plate headlines an outstanding card at Woodbine Racetrack and we are celebrating by offering up a $3,000 Exacta-Thon! The goal is to connect on at least five $2 exactas over the course of the massive 13-race card. Those who do so successfully will split $1500. An additional $1500 will be rewarded to the customer that hits the most total exactas. As always, check out the promotional landing page for full details. Here is how I will approach three of the day’s biggest races in the Exacta-Thon.

Race 7: E.P. Taylor (G1)

The lone Grade 1 on the slate goes as Race 7 and features the well accomplished #4 She Feels Pretty. The Karakontie filly has done little wrong through 11 starts, but did get beat a head at odds-on last out in the Diana (G1). It is difficult to hold that effort against her over the good going since she had rattled four consecutive graded stakes wins prior to the narrow loss. She should get the trip she wants just off the early pacesetters in the clear. The fact the pace is unlikely to be quick benefits the heavy chalk. I have no interest in trying to beat She Feels Pretty, but instead hope to find a touch of value underneath with #5 Caitlinhergrtness. The daughter of Omaha Beach has clearly been better thus far over the all-weather, but has run well over the grass as well. She finished third in the QEII Cup (G1) to She Feels Pretty last fall and attracts one of the best in the game in Flavien Prat. Hopefully she can set a moderate early tempo and stick around late for trainer Kevin Attard.

Play: Exacta 4-5

Race 9: King’s Plate

The $1M featured event drew a big field with several in with serious chances. I expect #3 Notorious Gangster to get the best trip. The Classic Empire colt let #12 Sedburys Ghost get the jump in the Plate Trial when he was shuffled back slightly midway through the running. He draws along the inside for a barn that clearly knows how to win big races at Woodbine. Hopefully, jockey Fraser Aebly works out a dream run and a trip to the winner’s circle aboard the Mark Dodson homebred. I will use a few underneath my top choice, including long shot #8 Dewolf. He has just 2 wins, but has been consistent. The presence of Flavien Prat and the 30-1 ML price make giving this Silent Name colt a second look underneath.

Play: Exacta Wheel 3 with 8+10+12

Race 10: King Edward (G2)

The final graded stake of the day looks like #3 Cruden Bay’s race to lose. The son of Big Screen came off an 11-month layoff at the age of 7 to win going away going at seven-furlongs in the Connaught Cup (G2). He lacks early speed, but should get an honest pace to chase. I expect him to make it two wins in a row to kick off his 2025 campaign. #5 Dresden Row is the likeliest to spring the upset or finish out the exacta, but will also take a good deal of money. I will turn instead to #1 Piper’s Factor underneath. The 4YO colt draws favorably along the rail and stretches back out to two-turns after not finding a prominent spot early in the aforementioned Connaught Cup. Expect him to be into the race much earlier under jockey Patrick Husbands. Hopefully, this allows him to stick around late at a playable 8-1-morning line offering.

Play: Exacta 3-1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2025, 06:13 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #4

#1 Kizazi	Wanted to see just a touch better from her last time out, but she chased a toughie and a repeater in that decent debut try, and I'm expecting there is still something a bit better in the tank here.
#2 Yours Sincerely	Not sure what to do with her, but I'm not sure this is going to be a group you write home about in the end, so she may be enough to be competitive here. Check her out.
#6 Tiz Grace	We'll see how she fits here on the turf, but I typically don't mind seeing a Kantharos on the grass, and I feel like she may wind up being a forward threat in this spot. In the mix.
Race Summary	Kizazi has a right to be tough, as she classed up OK with a couple nice runners so far. Think she can come forward today in the second run around two bends on the turf.

Del Mar - Race #8

#5 Lush Lips	She has really done nothing wrong for Walsh other than run into Nitrogen a couple times, and I love that this might be a chance to get her at a mildly playable price if the next one commands a big enough share.
#10 Thought Process	No arguments from me here -- I'm a big fan, and I think she's the one to beat. Just think the top choice might offer a more appealing number with another heavy hitter from the division having left a mark on her company lines.
#6 Edge of Mali	Riser has a lot of work to do to even stay in the frame with the top two, but I really don't think we've seen the best of her yet, and I love an aggressive rise like this after an impressive score.
Race Summary	Lush Lips and Thought Process look like the right two in here -- no surprises there, but I like the way Lush Lips landed that last one after finally getting away from Nitrogen.

Del Mar - Race #10

#9 Boujee Beach	As mentioned above, I thought pretty highly of the race she exits, and I bet she can show a bit better tactical pace today than we saw from her last time out. Tempted to take an aggressive stand here.
#8 Gathered	She'll go with Lasix for the first time off the bench out of this new barn, and she seems like a reasonable place to land if you assume she has come forward at all since the last time we saw her.
#4 For Arrogate	Blinkers come off today, and I liked the winner of her last a little bit. Think she's the right one out of that spot, and a late run to land it isn't out of the question.
Race Summary	Check out #3 The Mizen Queen ahead of this one, too. Her last might not be far off this bunch. Boujee Beach seemed to turn in an OK try when routing here last month, and I'd love to see her find a good spy in a spot without a ton of pace.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2025, 06:13 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine - Race #2

#4 ROCK HARD ROSE (6-1)	Tactical edge in her first short sprint attempt on the lawn.
#8 TOP OF D MOUNTAIN (3-1)	Second at four distances in 10 starts, switches to turf.
#3 CLOUD RIVER (7-2)	Mild gain from post 10 in crowded field, lack of pace the concern.
Race Summary	ROCK HARD ROSE out-dueled the second favorite in a long sprint on the turf three starts back before the winning favorite and deep closers passed by. She can use her speed well in this field and break through with a victory on the slight class drop. Bet to win and place and play 4-3 and 4-8 exactas.

Woodbine - Race #6

#9 MIRAMICHI (5-2)	Seven-time bridesmaid went down fighting in latest, goes back to main track.
#2 JUST MAGNIFICENT (7-2)	Broke maiden at this level and distance, rounding to another good effort.
#8 I GOT MURPHED (4-1)	Been in winning contention in three starts, surged late into ‘photo’ last out.
Race Summary	MIRAMICHI broke sharply, backed off the co-favorite and pursued gamely to the wire, winning a stretch-long battle from I GOT MURPHED for the place spot on turf. She has had a lot of chances at this level, give her one more try with a win and place bet and 9-2 and 9-8 exactas.

Woodbine - Race #10

#3 CRUDEN BAY (5-2)	Furious mid-track close off layoff to win second G-2 stake, extra furlong a plus.
#10 WAR STRATEGY (4-1)	Has speed to overcome post 10 in first stakes try, but he’s 0-5 at one mile.
#8 GAS ME UP (6-1)	Lightly-raced 5yo gets results, gets Prat to ride, gets second look in graded stakes.
Race Summary	CRUDEN BAY rallied to win two Grade 2 stakes at 7F on ‘good’ footing a year apart, the latest that pushed his earnings over $500,000. He is a ‘bounce’ candidate in today’s Grade 2 King Edward, but his overall 24/8-9-1 record suggests otherwise at a distance that should suit him well. Bet to win and place and play 3-8 and 3-10 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2025, 06:14 AM

Del Mar Tip Sheet - August 16

Aug. 15, 2025

Race #1
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:00 PM ET
Best Bet #4 DISCREPANCY
$25,000.00

Race 1 Claiming

Win	4-1	4	Discrepancy	K Kimura
Place	5-1	5	Shanghai Sunrise	E Payeras
Show	7-2	6	Roman Empress	D A Herrera
Wild card	8-1	1	Putt for Dough	R Gonzalez
Alternate 1	12-1	2	Im a Risque Girl	S Carmona
Alternate 2	12-1	7	Outer Sunset	G Franco

Exacta 4-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
Trifecta 4/5/6 BOX, 1/5/6 BOX
Race #2
Turf 5 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:31 PM ET
$81,000.00

Race 2 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	8-1	8	Regal Patriot	R Silvera
Place	3-1	7	Bad Uncle Barry	U Rispoli
Show	6-1	1	Golden Ale	R Gonzalez
Wild card	10-1	10	Anmer Hall	A Fresu
Alternate 1	12-1	4	Natural Fighter	E Payeras
Alternate 2	8-1	6	Vancougar	H I Berrios

Exacta 8-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-10 BOX
Trifecta 1/7/8 BOX, 1/7/10 BOX
Race #3
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:02 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 3 Maiden Special Weight

Win	3-1	1	Falcon Jet	M E Smith
Place	7-5	2	Litmus Test	J J Hernandez
Show	7-2	5	Chapter One	U Rispoli
Wild card	15-1	7	In the Mix	A Fresu
Alternate 1	20-1	4	Trail Blaze	W Antongeorgi III
Alternate 2	20-1	3	Arizona Moon Rise	A Escobedo

Exacta 1-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/5 BOX, 2/5/7 BOX
Race #4
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 06:33 PM ET
Best Bet #12 HYPERGAMY
$80,000.00

Race 4 Maiden Special Weight

Win	4-1	12	Hypergamy	J J Hernandez
Place	3-1	3	Got the Ring	T Gaffalione
Show	5-1	6	Tiz Grace	H I Berrios
Wild card	6-1	1	Kizazi	A Ayuso
Alternate 1	12-1	11	Miss Queue	R Gonzalez
Alternate 2	6-1	8	Improbable U	A Fresu

Exacta 12-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX
Trifecta 3/6/12 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
Race #5
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:03 PM ET
$31,000.00

Race 5 Claiming

Win	7-2	2	Misty Muppet	D A Herrera
Place	5-2	8	Lil Boom Boom	A Aguilar
Show	4-1	1	Eltonsingsanother	R Gonzalez
Wild card	8-1	6	Cela Hall	R Silvera
Alternate 1	5-1	5	Empress of Grace	A Fresu
Alternate 2	15-1	4	Cooling Off	S Carmona

Exacta 2-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/8 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX
Race #6
Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 07:33 PM ET
$81,000.00

Race 6 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	7-2	11	Rugelach	H I Berrios
Place	5-2	4	Gypsy Woman	A Fresu
Show	8-1	8	Shes a Joker	T Gaffalione
Wild card	3-1	10	The White Lady	U Rispoli
Alternate 1	5-1	6	Laudatory	K Frey
Alternate 2	12-1	9	Drum Roll	K Kimura

Exacta 11-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX
Trifecta 4/8/11 BOX, 4/8/10 BOX
Race #7
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 08:03 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 7 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-2	8	Cant Help Myself	H I Berrios
Place	3-1	2	Mystic Moses	R Silvera
Show	5-1	7	Arisaka	A Fresu
Wild card	4-1	4	Ocean Bear	U Rispoli
Alternate 1	12-1	5	Ride the Tiger	D A Herrera
Alternate 2	12-1	1	Hes Got Fire	D Van Dyke

Exacta 8-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
Trifecta 2/7/8 BOX, 2/4/7 BOX
Race #8
Turf 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 08:33 PM ET
$300,000.00

Race 8 Stakes

Win	8-5	10	Thought Process	U Rispoli
Place	6-1	7	Will Then	J J Hernandez
Show	15-1	3	Velocity	R Gonzalez
Wild card	15-1	6	Edge of Mali	A Fresu
Alternate 1	10-1	9	Casalu	K Kimura
Alternate 2	15-1	8	Firenze Flavor	D Van Dyke

Exacta 10-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
Trifecta 3/7/10 BOX, 3/6/7 BOX
Race #9
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 09:03 PM ET
Best Bet #4 GET HER NUMBER
$32,000.00

Race 9 Claiming

Win	2-1	4	Get Her Number	T Gaffalione
Place	12-1	5	Zimba Warrior	E A Maldonado
Show	6-1	3	Joint Venture	U Rispoli
Wild card	12-1	8	Mothers Prayer	E Payeras
Alternate 1	5-1	1	Four O Six Creed	D A Herrera
Alternate 2	4-1	7	Contrary Chieftain	K Frey

Exacta 4-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
Trifecta 3/4/5 BOX, 3/5/8 BOX
Race #10
Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 09:32 PM ET
$80,000.00

Race 10 Maiden Special Weight

Win	6-1	4	For Arrogate	K Kimura
Place	10-1	2	Toes	A Ayuso
Show	8-1	7	Miss Artois	A Fresu
Wild card	7-2	3	The Mizen Queen	H I Berrios
Alternate 1	8-1	9	Boujee Beach	D Cohen
Alternate 2	4-1	8	Gathered	J J Hernandez

Exacta 4-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/7 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2025, 06:15 AM

Ellis Park Tip Sheet - August 16

Aug. 15, 2025

Race #1
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 12:50 PM ET
$37,500.00

Race 1 Maiden Claiming

Win	7-2	1	When Smokey Sings	K J Asmussen
Place	6-1	4	Skynet	M Gutierrez
Show	10-1	2	Fly Js Funtastic	C Barbosa
Wild card	5-2	5	Restless Renegade	B J Hernandez Jr.
Alternate 1	20-1	8	Charlie Tolu	G Saez
Alternate 2	3-1	3	Cinister Cix	J A Torres

Exacta 1-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/4 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:19 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 2 Maiden Special Weight

Win	2-1	6	Taverna	E Morales
Place	7-2	4	Quick to Charm	A Concepcion
Show	5-1	2	Rethink	J A Torres
Wild card	4-1	5	Mo Complex	J R Leparoux
Alternate 1	9-2	1	Untamed Moment	C J Lanerie
Alternate 2	6-1	3	Estelles Day	B J Hernandez Jr.

Exacta 6-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/6 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
Race #3
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:48 PM ET
$40,000.00

Race 3 Claiming

Win	7-2	4	Brooklynn Drew	V Esquivel
Place	4-1	3	Mombayla	J A Torres
Show	5-2	8	Shes No Angel	A Beschizza
Wild card	9-2	2	Musical Prayer	K J Asmussen
Alternate 1	6-1	1	Appealing Addie	J R Leparoux
Alternate 2	20-1	5	Fancy Fascinator	R Bejarano

Exacta 4-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
Trifecta 3/4/8 BOX, 2/3/8 BOX
Race #4
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:16 PM ET
$44,000.00

Race 4 Maiden Optional Claiming

Win	4-1	1	Amazing Amanda	A Concepcion
Place	3-1	10	Sway House	C J Lanerie
Show	7-2	3	Crevalla de Vil	B J Hernandez Jr.
Wild card	10-1	7	Fayes Gold	J A Torres
Alternate 1	20-1	8	Listentourmother	V Lebron
Alternate 2	5-1	9	Unassuming	K J Asmussen

Exacta 1-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/10 BOX, 3/7/10 BOX
Race #5
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 02:44 PM ET
Best Bet #2 MANAGE XPECTATIONS
$40,000.00

Race 5 Claiming

Win	7-2	2	Manage Xpectations	J R Leparoux
Place	5-1	4	Lady Blake	W A Rodriguez
Show	4-1	1	Mustang Lady	I Moncada
Wild card	8-1	7	Frosted Kisses	J A Torres
Alternate 1	6-1	5	Beach Bunny	R Bejarano
Alternate 2	12-1	8	Princess Buttercup	J Elliott

Exacta 2-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-7 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/4 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
Race #6
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 03:12 PM ET
$45,000.00

Race 6 Claiming

Win	12-1	2	Strummin	V Lebron
Place	10-1	7	Iron Sharpens Iron	B J Hernandez Jr.
Show	8-1	6	Googol Joke	C J Lanerie
Wild card	12-1	10	Farm Team	S Camacho Jr.
Alternate 1	7-2	1	Countthebrave	E Morales
Alternate 2	5-1	4	Spurgeon	M Gutierrez

Exacta 2-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX, 6-10 BOX
Trifecta 2/6/7 BOX, 6/7/10 BOX
Race #7
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 03:42 PM ET
$44,000.00

Race 7 Maiden Optional Claiming

Win	3-1	7	Ive Got the Honey	A Concepcion
Place	20-1	1	Rather Late	W A Rodriguez
Show	7-2	3	Alta Avenue	E Morales
Wild card	6-1	4	G G Darling	C Barbosa
Alternate 1	20-1	11	Givemethebeat	M Anderson
Alternate 2	20-1	12	Screeched In	C J Lanerie

Exacta 7-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/7 BOX, 1/3/4 BOX
Race #8
Dirt 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 04:12 PM ET
Best Bet #8 HEY BOSS
$46,250.00

Race 8 Claiming

Win	5-2	8	Hey Boss	J Graham
Place	6-1	6	Whats Up Doc	J A Torres
Show	8-1	9	Hayes Strike	A Concepcion
Wild card	6-1	3	Pike Place	B J Hernandez Jr.
Alternate 1	6-1	4	Onthestage	E Asmussen
Alternate 2	6-1	5	Eastside Cool	R Bejarano

Exacta 8-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX
Trifecta 6/8/9 BOX, 3/6/9 BOX
Race #9
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 04:42 PM ET
Best Bet #2 LEMON ZEST
$102,000.00

Race 9 Allowance

Win	8-5	2	Lemon Zest	J A Torres
Place	5-1	3	Especially	A Concepcion
Show	10-1	7	Colonial Rose	J R Leparoux
Wild card	6-1	4	Seraphia	E Asmussen
Alternate 1	9-2	6	Sharp Smile	E Morales
Alternate 2	8-1	8	Union Mist	B J Hernandez Jr.

Exacta 2-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/7 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX
Race #10
Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 05:12 PM ET
$35,000.00

Race 10 Claiming

Win	2-1	2	Atlantic Dancer	R Bejarano
Place	9-2	7	Sagittarius	E Asmussen
Show	4-1	8	Catalina Crush	G Saez
Wild card	15-1	9	Odorico	A Concepcion
Alternate 1	8-1	4	Ghost Prince	C Barbosa
Alternate 2	12-1	1	Fountain Run	S Doyle

Exacta 2-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX, 8-9 BOX
Trifecta 2/7/8 BOX, 7/8/9 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2025, 06:16 AM

Woodbine Tip Sheet - August 16

Aug. 15, 2025

Race #1
Turf 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 12:45 PM ET
Best Bet #9 THUNDERMAKER
$115,100.00

Race 1 Maiden Special Weight

Win	5-2	9	Thundermaker	F Prat
Place	3-1	4	Will Win	J Lezcano
Show	8-1	3	Ideologist	J R Velazquez
Wild card	6-1	6	Buium	P Moran
Alternate 1	10-1	8	Court	F Aebly
Alternate 2	12-1	7	Blind River	R M Hernandez

Exacta 9-4 BOX, 4-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
Trifecta 3/4/9 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX
Race #2
Inner turf 7 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:17 PM ET
$49,200.00

Race 2 Maiden Optional Claiming

Win	7-2	3	Cloud Rider	S Civaci
Place	3-1	8	Top of D Mountain	K Nicholls
Show	10-1	1	Naughty Destiny	S Jones
Wild card	8-1	5	Aint No Girly Girl	J Castellano
Alternate 1	6-1	4	Rock Hard Rose	J I Alderson
Alternate 2	5-1	7	Arctic Blonde	P Moran

Exacta 3-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/8 BOX, 1/5/8 BOX
Race #3
Turf 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:49 PM ET
$117,600.00

Race 3 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	5-2	9	Niagara Skyline	J Lezcano
Place	3-1	7	Societys Thunder	J L Campos
Show	8-1	2	Western Whirl	F Aebly
Wild card	6-1	8	Time for Truth	R M Hernandez
Alternate 1	10-1	4	Bertani	J Castellano
Alternate 2	12-1	1	Found My Ball	X Forde

Exacta 9-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX
Trifecta 2/7/9 BOX, 2/7/8 BOX
Race #4
All Weather Track 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:22 PM ET
Best Bet #4 ONTARIO
$114,600.00

Race 4 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	2-1	4	Ontario	P Moran
Place	6-1	5	Will Reign	J Lezcano
Show	8-1	8	Soupergirl	S Civaci
Wild card	3-1	7	Madame Obey	F Aebly
Alternate 1	7-2	6	Miss Demanding	J R Velazquez
Alternate 2	10-1	3	Lunch With Bernie	R M Hernandez

Exacta 4-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX
Trifecta 4/5/8 BOX, 5/7/8 BOX
Race #5
Turf 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:55 PM ET
$150,000.00

Race 5 Stakes

Win	2-1	6	Sweet Fusion	P Husbands
Place	3-1	1	Dyna	F Prat
Show	7-2	3	Corsia Veloce	F Aebly
Wild card	8-1	2	Pipers Gift	R M Hernandez
Alternate 1	10-1	7	On My Time	S Civaci
Alternate 2	6-1	8	Nacho Problem	J R Velazquez

Exacta 6-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/6 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
Race #6
All Weather Track 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:30 PM ET
Best Bet #8 I GOT MURPHED
$63,800.00

Race 6 Optional Claiming

Win	4-1	8	I Got Murphed	P Moran
Place	6-1	6	Tandhoneywithane	X Forde
Show	7-2	2	Just Magnificent	R Munger
Wild card	5-2	9	Miramichi	A Vandermeersch
Alternate 1	10-1	3	Saratoga Holiday	F Aebly
Alternate 2	12-1	7	Hymn to Her	S Vives

Exacta 8-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX
Trifecta 2/6/8 BOX, 2/6/9 BOX
Race #7
Turf 1 1/4 Miles - Post Time: 04:14 PM ET
$750,000.00

Race 7 Stakes

Win	3-5	4	She Feels Pretty	J R Velazquez
Place	8-1	5	Caitlinhergrtness	F Prat
Show	7-2	7	Ready for Shirl	J Castellano
Wild card	20-1	6	Hurricane Clair	S Civaci
Alternate 1	20-1	2	Literate	S Civaci
Alternate 2	12-1	1	Venencia	R M Hernandez

Exacta 4-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
Trifecta 4/5/7 BOX, 5/6/7 BOX
Race #8
All Weather Track 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:49 PM ET
$150,000.00

Race 8 Stakes

Win	4-1	1	Victory Achieved	P Husbands
Place	5-2	5	Playmea Tune	J R Velazquez
Show	2-1	6	Simcoe	R M Hernandez
Wild card	8-1	2	Junior Hot Shot	J L Campos
Alternate 1	8-1	7	Im A Gambler	F Prat
Alternate 2	6-1	4	Ice Chocolat	S Civaci

Exacta 1-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
Trifecta 1/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
Race #9
All Weather Track 1 1/4 Miles - Post Time: 05:34 PM ET
$1,000,000.00

Race 9 Stakes

Win	6-1	12	Sedburys Ghost	R Munger
Place	9-2	3	Notorious Gangster	F Aebly
Show	12-1	7	Runaway Again	J Castellano
Wild card	7-2	10	No Time	J R Velazquez
Alternate 1	10-1	1	Mansetti	P Moran
Alternate 2	10-1	4	Scorching	J Lezcano

Exacta 12-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX, 7-10 BOX
Trifecta 3/7/12 BOX, 3/7/10 BOX
Race #10
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 06:11 PM ET
$200,000.00

Race 10 Stakes

Win	5-2	3	Cruden Bay	F Aebly
Place	6-1	8	Gas Me Up	F Prat
Show	4-1	10	War Strategy	P Moran
Wild card	3-1	5	Dresden Row	R Munger
Alternate 1	12-1	6	Lucky Score	S Civaci
Alternate 2	20-1	9	Public Sector	J Castellano

Exacta 3-8 BOX, 8-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX
Trifecta 3/8/10 BOX, 5/8/10 BOX
Race #11
Turf 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:44 PM ET
$150,000.00

Race 11 Stakes

Win	2-1	4	Casson	P Husbands
Place	3-1	1	Two Out Hero	R M Hernandez
Show	7-2	5	Jupiter	S Civaci
Wild card	12-1	9	Argos	F Prat
Alternate 1	10-1	8	Rude Procedure	P Moran
Alternate 2	8-1	3	Longhi	J R Velazquez

Exacta 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-9 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/5 BOX, 1/5/9 BOX
Race #12
All Weather Track 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:14 PM ET
$63,800.00

Race 12 Optional Claiming

Win	3-1	3	War of Destiny	P Moran
Place	7-2	2	Human Desire	S Civaci
Show	20-1	9	Westminster	R Munger
Wild card	6-1	4	Daddy Has Diamonds	D Moran
Alternate 1	10-1	10	Tutti Contenti	S Vives
Alternate 2	8-1	1	Lonnys Gamble	F Aebly

Exacta 3-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/9 BOX, 2/4/9 BOX
Race #13
Inner turf 7 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:44 PM ET
$114,600.00

Race 13 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	2-1	1	Monterey Bay	P Moran
Place	7-2	3	Journeyman	K Nicholls
Show	20-1	6	El Alacran	F Aebly
Wild card	4-1	4	Awesome Bourbon	J Lezcano
Alternate 1	9-2	13	Fly the W	F Prat
Alternate 2	6-1	11	Indian Peak	S Civaci

Exacta 1-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2025, 06:16 AM

Saratoga Tip Sheet - August 16

Aug. 15, 2025

Race #1
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 12:35 PM ET
$75,000.00

Race 1 Starter Allowance

Win	7-2	6	Indy Magic	L Saez
Place	3-1	4	House United	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	4-1	1A	Zippy Mark	L R Rivera Jr.
Wild card	7-2	5	Sweetalkingbourbon	J L Ortiz
Alternate 1	9-2	2	Airborne Elite	K Carmouche
Alternate 2	4-1	3	Norwich	R Santana Jr.

Exacta 6-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/6 BOX, 1/4/5 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:10 PM ET
$90,000.00

Race 2 Maiden Special Weight

Win	5-2	1	Victory Hall	J Alvarado
Place	7-2	6	Belloro	M Franco
Show	5-1	4	One Holy Roller	R Santana Jr.
Wild card	9-2	7	Pinky Brier	L Saez
Alternate 1	4-1	3	Averys Wonderland	J Rosario
Alternate 2	6-1	2	Probable Angle	D Davis

Exacta 1-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
Trifecta 1/4/6 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX
Race #3
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 01:45 PM ET
Best Bet #2 TREATY OBLIGATION
$68,000.00

Race 3 Claiming

Win	5-2	2	Treaty Obligation	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	3-1	1	Magnolia Midnight	M Franco
Show	4-1	3	Gun It	D Davis
Wild card	7-2	6	Alternate Reality	J L Ortiz
Alternate 1	5-1	4	Stolen Base	R Santana Jr.
Alternate 2	6-1	5	Unclecharliesgift	L J Luzzi

Exacta 2-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/3 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX
Race #4
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:20 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 4 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-5	6	Tennessee Belle	J Rosario
Place	7-2	4	Nonna Teresa	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	15-1	2	Run Wild	J L Ortiz
Wild card	4-1	5	Cognition	D Davis
Alternate 1	8-1	1	Sun Kiss	K Carmouche
Alternate 2	8-1	3	Amended Dreamer	R Santana Jr.

Exacta 6-4 BOX, 4-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/6 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
Race #5
Inner turf 1 3/8 Miles - Post Time: 02:54 PM ET
$110,000.00

Race 5 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	2-1	4	Fuerteventura	K Carmouche
Place	6-1	1	Kigali	R Santana Jr.
Show	8-1	3	Outsource	D Davis
Wild card	4-1	5	Il Siciliano	L Saez
Alternate 1	8-5	10	Valentinian	Rider TBA
Alternate 2	3-1	6	Zverev	I Ortiz Jr.

Exacta 4-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/4 BOX, 1/3/5 BOX
Race #6
Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:29 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 6 Maiden Special Weight

Win	5-2	3	Keto Drink	J Alvarado
Place	4-1	8	Bibi Dahl	R Santana Jr.
Show	9-2	7	Sadie Earp	L Dettori
Wild card	7-2	2	Santina	V Espinoza
Alternate 1	7-2	10	Shouldve	J Rosario
Alternate 2	6-1	5	Headspin	I Ortiz Jr.

Exacta 3-8 BOX, 8-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
Trifecta 3/7/8 BOX, 2/7/8 BOX
Race #7
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:03 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 7 Maiden Special Weight

Win	4-1	2	Renegade	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	5-2	4	Hero Declared	J L Ortiz
Show	8-1	7	Forever Man	R Santana Jr.
Wild card	8-1	1	Talkin	J Rosario
Alternate 1	6-1	3	Alghero	D Davis
Alternate 2	9-2	5	Its Our Time	L Saez

Exacta 2-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX
Race #8
Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 04:37 PM ET
Best Bet #3 GET A JOB
$100,000.00

Race 8 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	7-2	3	Get a Job	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	6-1	6	Shared Success	J L Ortiz
Show	4-1	7	Aggregation	M Franco
Wild card	6-1	8	Crimson Light	L Saez
Alternate 1	9-2	4	Cicciobello	R Santana Jr.
Alternate 2	6-1	9	Cut the Cord	K Carmouche

Exacta 3-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-8 BOX
Trifecta 3/6/7 BOX, 6/7/8 BOX
Race #9
Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:11 PM ET
$150,000.00

Race 9 Stakes

Win	7-2	8	Spirit of New York	J L Ortiz
Place	2-1	2	Sandals Song	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	6-1	7	Bobrovsky	J Alvarado
Wild card	4-1	1	Schwarzenegger	J R Velazquez
Alternate 1	20-1	5	Gypsy Art	L Dettori
Alternate 2	8-1	3	Monster	L Saez

Exacta 8-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX
Trifecta 2/7/8 BOX, 1/2/7 BOX
Race #10
Dirt 1 1/4 Miles - Post Time: 05:44 PM ET
$600,000.00

Race 10 Stakes

Win	9-5	4	Nitrogen	J L Ortiz
Place	5-2	6	La Cara	D Davis
Show	8-5	2	Good Cheer	L Saez
Wild card	12-1	5	Queen Azteca	J Rosario
Alternate 1	8-1	1	Margies Intention	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	15-1	3	Kinzie Queen	J Alvarado

Exacta 4-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
Race #11
Inner turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 06:17 PM ET
Best Bet #1 ASSERTIVENESS
$50,000.00

Race 11 Claiming

Win	2-1	1	Assertiveness	L Saez
Place	5-1	2	Dakota Country	J Rosario
Show	7-2	10	Kid Kreesa	R Santana Jr.
Wild card	6-1	7	Landman Friday	K Carmouche
Alternate 1	9-2	5	Mo Go	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	15-1	9	Sky Masterson	J L Ortiz

Exacta 1-2 BOX, 2-10 BOX, 10-7 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/10 BOX, 2/7/10 BOX
Race #12
Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:49 PM ET
$95,000.00

Race 12 Allowance

Win	3-1	2	Not for Hire	R Santana Jr.
Place	6-1	4	On the Ledge	C Elliott
Show	4-1	10	Pay the Juice	D Davis
Wild card	9-2	5	Courtly Banker	K Davis
Alternate 1	3-1	12	Vekinda	Rider TBA
Alternate 2	5-2	11	Roofer	R Santana Jr.

Exacta 2-4 BOX, 4-10 BOX, 10-5 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/10 BOX, 4/5/10 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2025, 06:17 AM

Saratoga Hotlist - August 16

Aug. 15, 2025

By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worst
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1^st race [Alw 50000s, 1 mi] – (1A) Zippy Mark (B) got off to a poor start and was able to get a third-place finish. (3) Norwich was claimed from his last two starts in Kentucky where he finished first and then third and will make his first start for Mike Maker. (4) House United moved from turf back to dirt and was second by a head in a similar condition but going nine-furlongs. (5) Sweetalkingbourbon broke his maiden for a $30,000 tag and then hit the board three times in starter allowances in Kentucky.
2^nd race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6F] – (6) Belloro (B) broke slowly in her debut at Saratoga last month as the favorite and kept on to finish third. Blinkers go on. (4) One Holy Roller ships up to Saratoga from Monmouth Park to debut. This home-bred is out of a dam that earned $250,000 on the track as a stakes winner and has produced a stakes winner. (3) Avery’s Wonderland has been working steadily since early June for his first start. (2) Probable Angle ships in from Penn National for connections that should be respected in New York.
4^th race [Md Sp Wt, 6F] – (6) Tennessee Belle (B) pressed the pace, finished second in her first career start, and was well clear of the rest. (4) Nonna Teresa is a home-bred daughter of Gun Runner for St. Elias and Todd Pletcher whose 2-year-olds are running great this summer. (2) Run Wild is a debut runner that was touted by Linda Rice to run at the Spa. (7) All About You will make her first start for Kenny McPeek as a $210,000 yearling purchase by a $40,000 stallion showing some fast workouts.
6^th race [Md Sp Wt, 5 ? F TURF] – (3) Keto Drink (B) got off to a slow start in her initial race at 7-1, was in last, and rallied nine-wide to get up for third. (9) In Her Glory was second in her first race at Colonial where she rallied from last in a 12 horse field to finish second at 6-1 and ships up from Fair Hills. (8) Bibi Dahl was second in a stakes race at Gulfstream in her debut in May and then went to Royal Ascot and finished eighth in a Group 3 with 17 runners. (2) Santina will make her first start for Wesley Ward showing a very fast turf work in her final preparation for this race.
Best bets: Tennessee Belle (4^th); Keto Drink (6^th). Best value: Zippy Mark (1^st); Belloro (2^nd).
Saturday Pick 3 Special --
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 1-3 ? 1A, 3, 4, 5 with 4, 6 with 1, 2, 3, 5 = $32.

No.	Name	Letter last race	Today's Race	Comments
(1A)	Zippy Mark	A on 7/23	1	Finished third after a poor start.
(6)	Belloro	B on 7/19	2	She broke slowly in her debut and finished third.
(6)	Tennessee Belle	B on 7/26	4	She was second in her first start, clear of the rest.
(3)	Keto Drink	B on 7/10	6	Ran third after a slow start and a nine-wide trip.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2025, 06:18 AM

Del Mar Hotlist - August 16

Aug. 15, 2025

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
2nd race – (6) Vancougar rallied for third in a solid comeback effort and should get the win here. (1) Golden Ale seems to have another big win brewing. (2) Our Bucky Charm was second in his last two starts and belongs in the exotics. (7) Bad Uncle Barry missed by a neck and should be in the picture here. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-6-7. Doubles: 1-2-6-7 with 1-2-5-6.
3rd race – (1) Falcon Jet was second in his debut and should get the win here. (2) Litmus Test seems on edge for his debut. (5) Chapter One could be primed for a nice try in his first race. (6) Sendit Mo may prefer dirt. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-5-6.
5th race – (5) Empress of Grace drops off a win and should thrive at this level. (8) Lil’ Boom Boom was second and should be the key contender. (2) Misty Muppet could land a share in this field. (7) Wild Cat Danzing fits better here. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-5-7-8.
7th race – (8) Can’t Help Myself was second last time and gets his maiden win here. (2) Mystic Moses should pose the biggest problem. (4) Ocean Bear could roar in his debut. (7) Arisaka is an interesting firster. Betting strategy: 8 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-4-7-8. Doubles: 2-4-7-8 with 5-7-9-10.
8th race – (10) Thought Process has plenty of speed and may not look back here. (5) Lush Lips arrives from Kentucky in great form and is the one to fear. (7) Will Then will welcome the added furlong. (9) Casalu cannot be ignored in this field. Betting strategy: 10 to win, place. Exacta box: 5-7-9-10.