11-26-11

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Red Sheet
90=0-1
89=13-7
88=17-16

RATING: #200 OKLAHOMA 89
RATING: #194 MISSISSIPPI STATE 89
RATING: #140 MICHIGAN 88
RATING: #163 TENNESSEE 88
RATING: #141 MISSOURI 88

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Powerplay
1*=11-3
2*=12-8
3*=19-19
4*=52-42-2
4.5=15-20

4* #118 W MICHIGAN 50 AKRON 12
2* #129 ARKANSAS 25 (+) LSU 37
4* #145 CINCI 28 SYRACUSE 20
4* #149 PURDUE 37 INDIANA 26
3* #153 GEORGIA 30 Ga TECH 22
4* #158 SO CAROL 36 CLEMSON 23
4.5* #160 NC ST 29 MARYLAND 9
4* #165 WYOMING 19 (+) BOISE ST 45
4.5* #167 NEVADA 35 UTAH ST 31
3* #174 OREGON 45 OREGON ST 14
2* #179 TEX TECH 34 (+) BAYLOR 45
4.5* #190COL ST 21 (+) A FORCE 30
3* #197 SAN JOSE 32 (+) FRESNO ST 34
4* #206 HAWAII 39 TULANE 14

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Marc Lawrence - Playbook
AA=6-9
5*=5-5
4*=7-6
3*=3-6
BB=2-1
GOW=6-4
INC 4-5

Awe Angle
4* #129 Ark

5* #124 Tulsa

GOW #127 Pittsburgh
Inc St. #139 Ohio St.

3* #178 Wisconsin

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Week 13 NCAA Trends & Angles

If you recall, we made some nice money the past few weeks by fading teams on long ATS winning streaks, first cashing in by fading Oklahoma State, and then by fading Stanford when they lost to Oregon.

Well, there is presently a team that is on an eight-game ATS winning streak, so we must stick to our guns and fade this team this week. However, what differentiates this team for the Oklahoma States and the Stanfords of the world is that it is a low profile team that has been underrated all season - and that brings us to our first trend.

Play against any team that has won seven or more games in a row ATS (43-28-2, 60.6% ATS since 1985): Teams that are covering machines like this are very popular among bettors, but as you might expect, the bookmakers eventually adjust for these popular teams to the point where they lose their value. It finally happened to Stanford and Oklahoma State in recent weeks and this angle is now 3-2 ATS this season. There is one qualifier for Week 13, and it is the Troy Trojans +6 at Western Kentucky.

Play against any team that has won eight or more games in a row ATS (14-9-1, 60.9% ATS since 1985): This is obviously a small sampling, but it also give you an idea just how rare this feat has been over the last 26 years, as it is much more difficult to win eight straight games ATS than it is to win eight in a row straight up, as the books usually catch up after getting beat by the same team week in and week out. Well, Western Kentucky has actually covered eight straight weeks, so the Hilltoppers qualify here again.

Play against any conference home favorite that was an underdog in each of its last two games (204-143-2, 58.8% ATS since 2005): These are oftentimes teams that are not used to being favored, and this record suggests that they usually cannot handle the pressure of being expected to win. Betting against these favorites in unchartered territory would have produced a nice profit of +46.7 units since 2005 based on one unit per play at odds of -110. This angle has one qualifier for Week 13, and it says to take Mississippi +17 at Mississippi State.

Play on any conference home favorite coming off of six straight up wins or more (129-80-3, 61.7ATS since 2002): Yes, you read that correctly, this is an angle that has gone nearly 62 percent over 209 decisions going all the way back to 2002, and unlike most of our other angles, this system is not contrarian! A team that wins six straight games in the same season is usually a good team, as that is enough wins where not all the victories can be attributed to luck, and these teams should continue to succeed inside their conference. Add in home favoritism and the results have been rather phenomenal over a nice nine-year span, as you can see. This angle has one qualifying play in Week 13 with that being Louisiana Tech -19½.

Play the 'under' if a team has lost at least six straight games straight up (142-99, 58.9% since 2005): We are not sure about the reasoning behind this phenomenon, but there appears to be a direct relationship in college football between long losing streaks and going 'under' in the next game. This appears to be a straight line relationship too, since the winning percentage of the 'under' has gotten better as the losing streak has gotten longer since 2005. There are eight qualifying 'unders' this week: Colorado State vs. Air Force, Duke at North Carolina, Florida Atlantic vs. UAB, Indiana vs. Purdue, Kansas vs. Missouri, Maryland at North Carolina State, Mississippi at Mississippi State and Tulane at Hawaii.

Play the 'under' if a team has lost at least seven straight games straight up (88-57, 60.7% since 2005): Add a seventh straight loss to the previous angle and the 'under' percentage jumps to over 60 percent over 145 trials. There are five qualifiers from the previous angle that qualify here, with those being the 'under' in games involving Florida Atlantic, Indiana, Kansas, Maryland and Tulane.

Play the 'under' if a team has lost at least eight straight games straight up (55-34, 61.8% since 2005): Add a eighth straight loss to the previous angle and we are now at almost 62 percent for the 'under' through 89 decisions. There are four qualifiers from the previous angle that qualify here, with those being the 'under' in games involving Florida Atlantic, Indiana, Kansas and Tulane.

Play the 'under' if a team has lost at least nine straight games straight up (30-18, 62.5% since 2005): Remember what we said about this being a straight line relationship? Yes, we are down to 48 decisions, but it is still a straight line in regards to the 'under' percentage when going from six straight losses on up. There are three qualifiers from the previous angle that qualify here, with those being the 'under' in games involving Florida Atlantic, Kansas and Tulane.

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Brian Mac's Friday Night Hotside is Alabama

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Northcoast Big Dogs

E.Michigan-won
Iowa-lost
Pittsburgh-won
Arkansas-lost
Colorado- won outright
Kansas
Wyoming
Penn State
Texas Tech
Colorado St
Mississippi
UCLA
Ohio State
Northwestern

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INFO PLAYS

10* Penn State +14½

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DOUBLE DRAGON SATURDAY

MICHIGAN -7.5 vs ohio state
NORTHWESTERN +6 vs michigan state
NC STATE -12 vs maryland
ALABAMA -21 at auburn
FLORIDA STATE -2.5 at florida
NOTRE DAME +7 at stanford
USC -15.5 vs ucla

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Al DeMarco

30 Dime 2011 REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR
Michigan Wolverines -7 (instructed to buy 1/2 point)

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DCI CFB

Saturday, November 26, 2011

Atlantic Coast Conference
NC STATE 33, Maryland 12
NORTH CAROLINA 31, Duke 21
Virginia Tech 23, VIRGINIA 19

Big 12 Conference
Baylor 63, Texas Tech 49
Missouri 44, Kansas 23
OKLAHOMA 44, Iowa State 25

Big East Conference
Cincinnati 29, SYRACUSE 20
Rutgers 24, CONNECTICUT 15

Big Ten Conference
Illinois 24, MINNESOTA 20
MICHIGAN 28, Ohio State 17
Michigan State 32, NORTHWESTERN 21
Purdue 36, INDIANA 27
WISCONSIN 27, Penn State 14

Mountain West Conference
Air Force 35, COLORADO STATE 22
BOISE STATE 45, Wyoming 22
San Diego State 41, UNLV 22

Pacific-12 Conference
OREGON 48, Oregon State 16
USC 43, Ucla 18
WASHINGTON 38, Washington State 32

Southeastern Conference
Alabama 31, AUBURN 14
MISSISSIPPI STATE 33, Mississippi 14
Tennessee 22, KENTUCKY 17

Sun Belt Conference
Fiu 34, MIDDLE TENNESSEE 16
WESTERN KENTUCKY 35, Troy 17

Conference USA
MARSHALL 34, East Carolina 32
SMU 31, Rice 22
SOUTHERN MISS 49, Memphis 13

Western Athletic Conference
FRESNO STATE 37, San Jose State 34
LOUISIANA TECH 48, New Mexico State 20
Nevada 44, UTAH STATE 36

FBS Non-Conference
ARIZONA 40, Louisiana-Lafayette 34
Florida State 24, FLORIDA 21
Georgia 32, GEORGIA TECH 23
HAWAI'I 44, Tulane 25
SOUTH CAROLINA 29, Clemson 24
STANFORD 38, Notre Dame 26
Uab 38, FLORIDA ATLANTIC 16
WAKE FOREST 27, Vanderbilt 22

FCS Playoffs
1st Round at campus sites
STONY BROOK 39, Albany 30
TENNESSEE TECH 35, Central Arkansas 32
OLD DOMINION 34, Norfolk State 16
James Madison 32, EASTERN KENTUCKY 12
Southwestern Athletic Conference
Grambling 24, Southern 21

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STRIKE POINT SPORTS
7 UNIT* CFB* RIVALRY GAME OF THE YEAR* Michigan Wolverines -7.5

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LuckyDaySports

Saturday’s Comp Play

NCAAF
Vanderbilt -2

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Marc Lawrence

10* GOY Northwestern over Michigan St.

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DCI NHL

Season: 97-83 (.539)

NEW JERSEY 3, N.Y. Islanders 2
Philadelphia vs. N.Y. RANGERS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Edmonton vs. COLORADO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
BOSTON 4, Winnipeg 2
Washington vs. BUFFALO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
MONTREAL 3, Pittsburgh 2
TAMPA BAY 3, Florida 2
DETROIT 3, Nashville 2
PHOENIX 3, Dallas 2
SAN JOSE 3, Vancouver 2
Chicago vs. LOS ANGELES: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

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DCI CBB

Season
Straight Up: 570-162 (.779)
ATS: 181-249 (.421)
ATS Vary Units: 720-1150 (.385)
Over/Under: 225-207 (.521)
Over/Under Vary Units: 324-308 (.513)

Auto Owners Insurance Spartan Invitational
Round Robin at campus sites
IUPUI 72, Texas Southern 62
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 67, UALR 62

Battle 4 Atlantis
at Atlantis Resort, Paradise Island, The Bahamas
Connecticut 65, Florida State 60
UNC Asheville 74, Utah 67
College of Charleston 75, Massachusetts 68
Championship
Harvard 66, Ucf 62

Carrs/Safeway Great Alaska Shootout
at Sullivan Arena, Anchorage, AK
Central Michigan 66, Dartmouth 56
New Mexico State 77, San Francisco 71
Championship
Southern Miss 65, Murray State 63

Chicago Invitational Challenge
Final Round at Sears Centre Arena, Hoffman Estates, IL
Bradley 68, Nevada 66
Wisconsin 66, Byu 63
Umkc 82, Longwood 76
Wofford 72, Prairie View A&M 51

Hoops for Hope Classic
Round Robin at New Orleans, LA
San Diego 74, Alcorn State 62

Hoosier Invitational
Round Robin at Chattanooga, TN
Savannah State 61, Gardner-Webb 59

Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational
Final Round at Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Cal Poly 68, Mississippi Valley State 60
Tennessee State vs. Morgan State: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
North Carolina 77, Unlv 74
Usc 63, South Carolina 55

Jim Thorpe Classic
Round Robin at Laramie, WY
Louisiana Tech 70, Portland State 67
WYOMING 76, Umes 57

Philly Hoop Group Classic
at the Palestra, Philadelphia, PA
James Madison 72, PENN 71
La Salle 83, Rider 75

South Padre Invitational
Final Round at South Padre Island Convention Center, South Padre Island, TX
Iowa State 76, Rice 69
Northern Colorado 77, Southern 53
Northern Iowa 70, Providence 64
Western Carolina 76, Florida A&M 61

Southwest Showcase
at campus sites
ARKANSAS 77, Grambling State 54

TicketCity Legends Classic
Kingston Subregional at Kingston, RI
Cleveland State 72, Hofstra 66
RHODE ISLAND 72, Boston U. 62
Lewisburg Subregional at Lewisburg, PA
Morehead State vs. Princeton: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Non-Conference
AKRON 81, Detroit 70
BOISE STATE 83, Northern Illinois 59
CAL STATE FULLERTON 84, Cal State Bakersfield 72
CALIFORNIA 71, Denver 55
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE 68, Hartford 58
Coastal Carolina 74, FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON 69
Davidson 73, UNC WILMINGTON 67
DELAWARE 73, Lafayette 66
DRAKE 73, Cal State Northridge 64
DUQUESNE 82, Louisiana-Lafayette 68
Eastern Illinois 73, CENTRAL ARKANSAS 64
GEORGIA STATE 70, Liberty 57
Gonzaga 83, Western Michigan 64
HIGH POINT 72, The Citadel 68
HOUSTON 74, Tcu 68
IDAHO 76, Montana State 63
IOWA 78, Ipfw 70
KENNESAW STATE 67, South Carolina State 61
KENTUCKY 86, Portland 54
Long Beach State 70, MONTANA 65
LOYOLA (CHICAGO) 72, Fordham 63
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT 71, Northern Arizona 70
MANHATTAN 69, Columbia 63
MARIST 70, Colgate 67
McNeese State vs. SACRAMENTO STATE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Miami (Ohio) 73, SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE 65
Middle Tennessee 71, AUSTIN PEAY 68
MISSOURI STATE 68, Tulsa 58
NEBRASKA 77, South Dakota State 69
NORTH DAKOTA 71, Western Illinois 57
NORTH DAKOTA STATE 76, Fresno State 67
Oregon State 80, TOWSON 67
PURDUE 86, Coppin State 58
SAINT JOSEPH'S 65, Penn State 64
San Diego State 69, UC SANTA BARBARA 60
SETON HALL 70, Saint Peter's 56
SOUTH FLORIDA 67, Florida Atlantic 62
SOUTHERN UTAH 80, Troy 73
St. Francis (N.Y.) 70, NEW JERSEY TECH 62
ST. JOHN'S 76, Northeastern 62
TEXAS 80, Sam Houston State 57
TEXAS A&M 73, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 50
Uic 66, TOLEDO 61
UT ARLINGTON 73, Samford 61
UT SAN ANTONIO 80, Pepperdine 68
Utah State 77, IDAHO STATE 57
UTEP 66, Stephen F. Austin 53
VERMONT 69, Siena 56
WAGNER 76, Delaware State 58
WESTERN KENTUCKY 66, Southeastern Louisiana 63
William & Mary 65, HOWARD 59
WRIGHT STATE 68, Charlotte 58
Yale 72, ARMY 64
Youngstown State 73, SAINT FRANCIS (PA.) 70