Sunday 8/31/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369801

    #1

    Sunday 8/31/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

    Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369801

    #2
    Race of the Week: Sunday's Pacific Classic at Del Mar


    August 27, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

    The Lead:
    Travers winner Sovereignty threw down the gauntlet last Saturday and now Del Mar's Breeders' Cup Classic division hopefuls get to strut their stuff in the $1 million Pacific Classic. This year's cast is one of the race's most interesting since its 1991 debut, including a cross-section of starpower at the top in a first-time matchup. The 1-1/4 miles Pacific Classic will be Race 10 on an 11-race program that co-features the Del Mar Mile, Torrey Pines, Green Flash and Del Mar Handicap.

    Field Depth:
    Multiple Grade 1 winners FIERCENESS and JOURNALISM lead the way along with NYSOS, a Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed. The rest have a deep cavern in the ledger with MIDNIGHT MAMMOTH a Grade 3 winner among the other five.
    ​​
    Pace:
    As many as six of these could be considered 'pressers' to the pace as their preferred running style. It will be about jockey intent and how assertive one or two want to be given the 10-furlong journey. MIDNIGHT MAMMOTH or TARANTINO may be most likely to set the tempo, BUT FIERCENESS, NYSOS and LURE HIM IN (among others) could be vying and capable of making the top. The late threats appear to be JOURNALISM and INDISPENSABLE. Very tough race to handicap based on 'shape' and pace.

    Our Eyes:
    Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

    #1-FIERCENESS: Last year's Breeders' Cup Classic runner-up over this class and distance makes an early trip west while flanking the coasts from Todd Pletcher stablemate Mindframe, who stays home to run in Sunday's Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga. Pletcher's only Pacific Classic runner in more than a decade was 2021 third-place finisher Dr. Post. Looked like he was going to bury the competition in the Whitney last out and inexplicably stopped at the head of the lane. His best is great, but it's inconsistent. May provide some value after being favored in 7 of his last 9. Look for jockey John Velazquez to float some competitors into the clubhouse turn if he's able to establish an early run inside.

    #2-MIDNIGHT MAMMOTH: Romping winner of Del Mar's 1-1/2 miles Cougar II last summer, but hasn't come close to that in 4 stakes tries this year. Did perk up with a 12-1 second in the Hollywood Gold Cup in late May and comes in freshened by trainer Craig Dollase. Needs to be 1-2 in the early going to do his best work. Tough task.

    #3-ULTIMATE GAMBLE: Recent allowance winner via DQ stretches out a full quarter-mile while trying a stakes for the first time in his 10th start. Mark Glatt asks a lot of this 5-year-old by 2003 Pacific Classic runner-up and beaten favorite Medaglia d'Oro, who already has sired 2019 Pacific Classic victor Higher Power. Feels like a no lead, no pass candidate.

    #4-NYSOS: Injuries derailed his 2024 season after a flashy start, but he's returned after 15 months on the sideline and continues to impress. What's most telling about his fabulous second off the bench in the Churchill Downs Handicap was that he didn't regress from it; he thrived and easily won the Triple Bend and San Diego since. His workouts at 1st.tv are mind-blowing good and he's going to be a handful for another of these through the upper stretch. The question comes late as he's never run beyond 1-1/16 miles. The short length of the Del Mar stretch will be his friend, but he may not need it. Bob Baffert has a record 7 wins in this race, most recently Arabian Lion in 2023. Flavien Prat eyes a record-tying fourth win in this race, looking to match Mike Smith and the late Garrett Gomez. Five San Diego winners all-time have added the Pacific Classic, the last of which was Maximum Security in 2020. The one to catch.

    #5-INDISPENSABLE: Last year's Shared Belief Stakes runner-up over this track, this $825,000 yearling purchase has gone a disappointing 2-for-14 lifetime. Trainer John Sadlers won 4 Pacific Classic editions in a 5-year period from 2018-'22, most recently with the legendary Flightline. Improved effort last out in an allowance but is being asked to take a big leap. Paco Lopez rides for the first time.

    #6-JOURNALISM: Six 3-year-olds have topped their elders to win the Pacific Classic all-time and the 2025 Preakness winner ranks among the strongest chances to try the feat. The recent Haskell winner takes the same path as Arabian Knight from 2023. Journalism seeks his fourth Grade 1 victory on the campaign. He finished second in both tries at the 10-furlong trip, both behind Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. Training videos at 1st.tv don't give any reason to doubt he'll once again fire his shot and come with another determined, late effort. Umberto Rispoli rides for Michael McCarthy, who is 4: 0-0-0 in the Pacific Classic to date.

    #7-LURE HIM IN: 8-year-old is the eldest member of this field and note that no runner over age 6 has captured the Pacific Classic. Veteran has won 3 of his last 5 starts for Florida-based Sam Wilensky, but settled for third in a Del Mar allowance when getting a prep over the track. His Gulfstream jockey Edwin Gonzalez travels for the mount. Major longshot.

    #8-TARANTINO: Honest sort nibbles around the edges with consistency, but an 0-16 career stakes record all but eliminates him from consideration to upset all 3 elite runners he faces on Saturday. Trainer Peter Eurton saddled 13-1 runner-up Draft Pick in the 2019 Pacific Classic and brings this one in off a 57-1 third-place effort in the San Diego against Nysos.

    Most Likely Exotics Contender:
    JOURNALISM is proven over the track, rock-solid at the distance and gets a 6-pound weight break from traveling FIERCENESS and stretch-out candidate NYSOS.

    Best Longshot Contender:
    TARANTINO could spruce up some exotic tickets on the bottom of trifectas and superfectas, but it's tough to reason 2 of the big 3 won't complete at least the exacta.

    Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
    With large field sizes in Races 9 and 11, let that work for you in multi-race bets getting in and out of a Pacific Classic where all 3 major players will be strongly backed intra-race. Race 9 $40 daily doubles QUEEN MAXIMA and NO NAY HUDSON to JOURNALISM ($80); Race 10 $10 daily doubles JOURNALISM to MONDEGO and ENDLESSLY ($20).
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 369801

      #3
      Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis


      August 31, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

      XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
      Northfield Park has a 16-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, with a 14% takeout and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

      Race 11 (9:40 PM EDT)

      3-Veranda Blue Chip (2-1)-Came off the bench, tried to wire the field and lost by a neck. That was the 1st race since 4-2 and was off 19 days from the 8-5 qualifier. Comes back in sequence tonight, should be tighter and better.
      9-Shine On Susan (7-1)-Lost to a well-meant winner in last and Aaron Merriman picks the one above, so Chris Lems steers. Beaten 2/5 chalk has a shot to make amends if can stay close enough to the morning line choice. If so, could challenge down the lane and prevent the program favorite from capturing its 1st win at Nfld.

      Race 12 (10:02 PM EDT)

      3-Rocknstarletgrey (3/2)-Steps-up after drawing off by 4 lengths on an off-track. Not liking the short price with a 1-19 record this year. But this is a group that doesn't like to win and for the most part is a formless bunch. Chris Lems should have in play from start to finish.
      6-Pams For Real (6-1)-Pam was a winner 2 and 3 back, then moved up to this level and drew post 7. Raced wide and there wasn't a lively pace to close into. Has won 3 of 7 at Nfld and is capable of better with a smoother trip.

      Race 13 (10:24 PM EDT)

      9-Girlfromrosedale A (6/5)-Came off the bench, drew post 7, and fell a half-length short. But was off for a month and didn't get an efficient trip. It was a good effort and comes back in sequence this time. Beaten even money chalk should have its way with this field despite starting from the 2nd tier.

      Race 14 (10:46 PM EDT)

      1-Sunonmybuns (4/5)-Left in a hurry from post 1 and went gate to wire. Paced the opening half in 55.4 all on its own. Should be a main player but this is a bit tougher. Merriman sticks, is difficult to leave off the ticket but will offer no value.
      2-Mikado (9/2)-Raced really well in last, came 1st over and tackled Merriman on a 2/5 shot at the wire. Looked done inside the 1/16 pole and showed a lot of heart to get up in time. Like the one above steps-up, and this should be a test but is in sharp form. Might usually look for a reason to fade a winner of 2 straight facing better, but the price is right to take a swing and deserves respect.

      $3 Late Pick 4

      3,9/3,6/9/1,2
      Total Bet=$24
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 369801

        #4
        Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks


        Del Mar - Race #9
        #5 The Padre Loved his last, and I'm not sure we've seen his best yet after just three starts. Dangerous with anything like the last one, and would certainly handle these with anything better.
        #4 Iron Man Cal Feels like a top-heavy race between these two, as this guy is Grade I-placed and has some room to come forward while still lightly raced this year. The one to beat.
        #2 Freedom's Not Free Forward player has been pretty honest and wasn't too far off the top choice when they met last time out. Wouldn't be a total shock, just think the top two have ceilings that are a touch higher. Could land it if a few things go his way.
        Race Summary The Padre and Iron Man Cal seem like a tough pair to get past in here, but the former might be a slightly better price as the likely second choice and probably has more upside still today.
        Del Mar - Race #10
        #6 Western Freedom Honestly thought he was going to bring something much more competitive than he did in that stakes try last out, but this easier spot gives him some chance to hit a bit harder with this friendlier group.
        #7 Good With People Winner of his last was back to score again here last week, and there were some pretty tough names in his company lines along the way before that, too. Wouldn't argue with you.
        #1 Grubauer He's coming out of that same common race as Good With People, but he turned in a flat run that day -- forward player can get in the mix here from the fence.
        Race Summary Western Freedom looks competitive in here while dropping out of a better spot, and he's a much better fit at this level and trip after a couple of tough stakes tries.
        Del Mar - Race #11
        #9 Nothing Is Forever Love her in the finale -- the risk/reward offering should be there on the tote board, and she seemed to be on her way to running a big one last out before getting stuck. Loved the way she was winding up that day when getting back on the turf. I'm all in today in hopes for a clean trip with similar enthusiasm from her.
        #6 Kikuride Reliable finisher will take some cash again, but she's an honest type who has been close to getting past this level in recent tries and should be in the frame late again today.
        #3 Princesa Del Tigre She has a little bit of potential pace to show here that might leave her in a better spot than she was in last time out, and it wouldn't be a shock to see her stick around for a share if she can get in the mix early.
        Race Summary Nothing Is Forever looked like she was on her way to something good last time out before getting stuck. She still finished up with some energy. Trip handicappers may be on board, but the price should be solid for what feels like one of my favorite potential plays anywhere in weeks.
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 369801

          #5
          F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hawthorne
          PURCHASE
          Hawthorne - Race 1 WPS / $1 Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 20 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / 50 Cent Pick 5 / $1 Daily Double
          Maiden Special • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up CR: 79 • Purse: $29,000 • Post: 2:43P
          FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (PREFERENCE BY CONDITION ELIGIBILITY). IN THE EVENT THAT THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF IT WILL BE CONTESTED AT FIVE FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.
          Contenders Race Analysis
          P# Horse Morn
          Line
          Accept
          Odds
          Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MIDTERM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackM aster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ANTHONY THE GREAT: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer co mbination return on investment is at least +20.
          3 MIDTERM 3/1 1/1
          4 ANTHONY THE GREAT 7/2 6/1

          P# Horse (In Running Style Order) Post Morn
          Line
          Running Style Good
          Class
          Good
          Speed
          Early Figure Finish Figure Platinum
          Figure
          3 MIDTERM 3 3/1 Front-runner 91 72 61.5 62.0 59.5
          4 ANTHONY THE GREAT 4 7/2 Alternator/Front-runner 0 0 66.4 43.6 39.6
          6 FINAL COUNTDOWN 6 6/1 Alternator/Front-runner 0 0 63.9 47.6 42.1
          Unknown Running Style: TONYS KINGDOM (2/1) [Jockey: Reyes Frank - Trainer: Hernandez Armando], PRINCE BEN (5/1) [Jockey: Gonzalez Santiago - Trainer: Tracy Tanner], MONROE ATTACK (6/1) [Jockey: Tavares Javier - Trainer: Childers Shane].
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 369801

            #6
            F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lethbridge
            PURCHASE
            Lethbridge - Race 6 Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta
            Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 79 • Purse: $7,700 • Post: 3:20P
            FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.
            Contenders Race Analysis
            P# Horse Morn
            Line
            Accept
            Odds
            Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * FROSTEDBIRD: Horse is highest ranked on Good Speed and Good Class. Today is a sprint, ho rse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. LUCKY LUKE: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. DELTA DELTA: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
            2 FROSTEDBIRD 4/1 7/2
            1 LUCKY LUKE 3/1 9/2
            3 DELTA DELTA 6/1 8/1

            P# Horse (In Running Style Order) Post Morn
            Line
            Running Style Good
            Class
            Good
            Speed
            Early Figure Finish Figure Platinum
            Figure
            1 LUCKY LUKE 1 3/1 Front-runner 82 73 87.0 73.2 64.2
            2 FROSTEDBIRD 2 4/1 Front-runner 84 83 83.5 72.0 66.5
            6 WALKTHELINE 6 8/5 Front-runner 68 60 0.0 66.0 58.0
            4 CONRADO 4 7/1 Stalker 75 76 44.0 74.6 68.1
            3 DELTA DELTA 3 6/1 Stalker 84 71 0.0 70.2 65.7
            5 ALMANERA (IRE) 5 2/1 Alternator/Non-contender 81 68 53.0 65.8 57.8
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 369801

              #7

              Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

              PURCHASE
              Always check program numbers.
              Odds shown are morning line odds.



              Race 4 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 69

              FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 31 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 30 ALLOWED 3 LBS. 4# A DEBTS ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
              RECOMMENDED CHOICES
              # 6 MY GOOD FORTUNE 7/2
              # 3 ADVOCATE HARBOR 10/1
              # 2 LAS COLINAS 4/1
              MY GOOD FORTUNE looks solid to best this field. Ought to be considered here on the basis of the figs in the speed section alone. The Equibase Speed Figure of 63 from her latest race looks quite good in here. Has a sharp shot in this competition if you like back class. ADVOCATE HARBOR - Has posted solid Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past. LAS COLINAS - Will most likely go to the lead and might never look back.
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 369801

                #8

                Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

                PURCHASE





                Prairie Meadows - Race #7 - Post: 6:34pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $34,500 Class Rating: 56

                Rating:

                #4 MISTLETOLEE (ML=8/1)
                #2 SUMMERS WITH SONYA (ML=5/2)
                #8 VERN (ML=3/1)


                MISTLETOLEE - Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end. SUMMERS WITH SONYA - Got to love a filly who outruns her odds in her first start. Filly did just that back on Aug 1st. I like to wager on this handicapping theory, a thoroughbred coming back off a sharp race within the last 30 days. Jockey hops back up aboard after getting to know the horse by riding last time out. That's always a good to see. Another way to judge class is (EPS) earnings per start. This entrant has the highest in the group. I think she'll be close at the finish. VERN - Jock hops up aboard after getting to know the mount by riding last time out. That's always a good to see. Bacon's agent must like anytime Anderson gives them a mount; winning pct together is terrific. Anderson brings her right back. I recommend you stay with this hot filly.

                Vulnerable Contenders: #6 TEN OF HEARTS (ML=7/2), #7 FLAT OUT CHROME (ML=5/1), #1 SONG OF SONGS (ML=6/1),

                TEN OF HEARTS - This filly probably needs a more preferred pace scenario to make her closing rush. Don't think this runner will make an impact in today's event. That last speed figure was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's class rating. FLAT OUT CHROME - The speed figure in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's affair. Mark this thoroughbred as a likely underpriced contender. SONG OF SONGS - Not a good enough price on this participant at the probable odds of 6/1.
                STRAIGHT WAGERS: Go with #4 MISTLETOLEE on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
                EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,4] Box [4,8]
                TRIFECTA WAGERS: Box [2,4,8] Total Cost: $6
                SUPERFECTA WAGERS: [2,4,8] with [2,4,8] with [1,2,4,6,8] with [1,2,4,6,8] Total Cost: $36
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 369801

                  #9

                  Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

                  PURCHASE





                  Emerald Downs - Race #9 - Post: 5:56pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 79

                  Rating:

                  #10 SONG OF SHADOWS (ML=9/2)
                  #3 BOB'S VAI (ML=5/1)
                  #7 STATEFOREST (ML=4/1)


                  SONG OF SHADOWS - I have to like this mare's chances at the shorter trip. Took a class drop last time out at Emerald Downs. Gibson keeps her at the same level in this race. I think that's a good move. This mare is tops in EPS (earnings per start). Give the once over to this thoroughbred in the paddock. BOB'S VAI - Timentwa was aboard this mare last out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. This mare likes to be near the lead. Today's race is a shorter distance and should promote her chances of winning. You have to consider the solid works of late. STATEFOREST - The August 22nd race at Emerald Downs was at a class level of (89). Dropping to a lower class rank drastically, so she should be in a good position. The fact that this mare is entered right back into a race so quickly means she's fit and ready. Last ran at Emerald Downs and finished fourth. Reviewing her PP data, I see she was close at the end, within five of the winner. The 73 recent race figure looks mighty good on paper.

                  Vulnerable Contenders: #1 PRINCESS PAYTON (ML=6/1), #4 THE GREAT HAYNES (ML=6/1), #2 LULA BELLA (ML=8/1),

                  PRINCESS PAYTON - Ran well to finish first on August 10th, but hasn't had even a drill since then. THE GREAT HAYNES - On a downward spiraling series. Speed figs keep dropping. Hard to keep chasing this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. Not probable that the rating she garnered on August 7th will hold up in this clash. LULA BELLA - Today's race is 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a sprint contest in the last couple of months. Not the best of omens. A bit of a less than stellar outing when this filly finished fifth.
                  STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #10 SONG OF SHADOWS to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
                  EXACTA WAGERS: Box [3,7,10]
                  TRIFECTA WAGERS: Box [3,7,10] Total Cost: $6
                  SUPERFECTA WAGERS: [3,7,10] with [3,7,10] with [1,3,5,7,10] with [1,3,5,7,10] Total Cost: $36
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 369801

                    #10

                    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Timonium

                    PURCHASE
                    Always check program numbers.
                    Odds shown are morning line odds.



                    Race 1 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 88

                    FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE FEBRUARY 28 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FIVE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JANUARY 31 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 31 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN
                    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                    # 6 MORNING THOUGHTS 2/1
                    # 3 TOAST TO COAST 8/1
                    # 1 CAERUS 5/1
                    MORNING THOUGHTS looks to be the wager in here. Should finish in the money without any worries. The average Equibase class figure alone makes this entrant a contender. Solid average Equibase speed figs in dirt route races make this horse a solid contender. CAERUS - Should be considered - I like the figures from the last outing.
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 369801

                      #11
                      Kentucky Downs Hotlist - August 31

                      Aug. 29, 2025

                      By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
                      Hot List Key:
                      A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
                      *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
                      *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
                      * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
                      1st race – (1) Imminent Risk was a rallying third in her debut and should like the added distance. (12) Shidoni missed by a head in her turf debut and will be a main factor. (3) Menkaure may like turf. (4) Greatest could take a step forward in this spot. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-4-12.
                      3rd race – (11) Degree of Risk may work out a winning trip in this field. (4) Quatrocento is in top form and looms the main rival. (1) Steppin Silver has won two in a row and deserves consideration. (8) The Process should be a factor in the late stages. Betting strategy: 11 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-4-8-11.
                      5th race – (11) Write Off Jerry was second in his last two starts and is overdue for a win. (1) Salted Carmel should benefit from a rail trip. (8) Name It showed promise in his turf debut. (10) Warlander fits nicely here. Betting strategy: 11 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-8-10-11.
                      8th race – (2) Beach Ballad has a nice turn of speed and may not be caught here. (9) Love a Little Mo was a game second last time and should be the main rival. (7) Turner’s Charm could be a contender in her debut. (10) Maiora also may hang around until the final yards. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-7-9-10. Doubles: 2-7-9-10 with 2-6-7-8.
                      9th race – (2) Johnny’s Red Storm showed impressive speed in a debut win and looks best here. (8) Obliteration has plenty of speed and will be dangerous if he takes to turf. (6) Azizam is an interesting shipper from Europe. (7) Longshoreman will be a force on his best try. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-6-7-8.



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                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 369801

                        #12
                        Saratoga Hotlist - August 31

                        Aug. 29, 2025

                        By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt
                        Hot List Key:
                        A:
                        A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
                        *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
                        *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
                        * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
                        5th race [Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), 1 ? mi] – (3) Sierra Leone has a stablemate to push the early pace which will give him the right set-up and when that happens he is hard to beat. (4) Mindframe won his last three starts with a pair of Grade 1s and a Grade 2. (2) Highland Falls won the JCGC last yearand was just second in the Whitney (G1). (1) Disarm was third in the Whitney and last year was third in this race.
                        7th race [Md Sp Wt, 6F] – (8) Lovely Christina (A) broke slowly in her debut at 5-1 and finished second behind an impressive winner but well clear of the rest of the field. (4) All About You was second in her first start which was two weeks ago at Saratoga. (9) Celebrity Quest will make her first career start for Tom Amoss whose horses are running well this summer. (3) Paige Turner was a $350,000 2-year-old purchase and shows some fast workouts in preparation for her debut.
                        8th race [Alw 110000 N1X, 1 mi] – (2) Vettriano (B) pinched back to last at the start of his 2025 debut as a horse that usually races on the lead. (3) Houlton won his last race with a closing move in a starter allowance and is in fine form in his four most recent starts. (6) Protective comes back from a January layoff and changes to the barn of Joe Sharp. He was third in the Peter Pan (G3) and the Wood Memorial (G2) last year. (5) Rocketeer set the pace and finished second going nine-furlongs in an allowance in July.
                        14th race [NY, Md 50000, 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (7) Blame It On K J (B) bumped very hard at the start of his second start in a race meant for the turf and finished second clear of the others. (3) Lets Fight returns from six-month layoff and drops in for a tag for the first time after three good races. (11) Deemer was third in his only start of the year last month and is in a claimer for the first time. (2) Hello Newman ran his best race when he was third by a neck in his first start for a tag.
                        Best bets: Sierra Leone (5th); Lovely Christina (7th). Best value: Vettriano (8th); Blame It On K J (14th).
                        No. Name Letter/
                        last race
                        Today's Race Comments
                        (13) Three Thirteen B on 8/22 2 Third on the Also Eligible list.
                        (8) Lovely Christina A on 8/10 7 Broke slowly in her debut and ran second the whole race.
                        (2) Vettriano B on 8/3 8 Pinched back to last but is usually on the lead.
                        (7) Blame It On K J B on 8/14 14 Bumped very hard at the start and improved to get second.
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