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Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
POWER SYSTEM PLAY
Houston -6.5 OVER JACKSONVILLE: No Matt Schaub, but this team still has Arian Foster, the #1 ranked defense and they get Andre Johnson back for this one. Matt Leihart did not have a great time while in Arizona, but he also didn't play behind a good OL like the Texans have. Matt has also had the benefit of the bye week to get ready for this one, so I expect him to perform well. The Jags have played well vs the pass this year (4th), but they are average at best vs the run, allowing 111.2 ypg, including 129.3 ypg in their last 3 games. This team can be run on and that will only help open up throwing lanes for Liehart. Houston isn't all about their 6th ranked offense as they bring the #1 defense into this game as well. Houston is 1st in total defense (269.7 ypg), 2nd in pass defense (178.4 ypg), 4th vs the run (91.3 ypg) and 3rd in points allowed 16.6 ppg). I though only LSU and Alabama had complet defenses like that. This is a complete defense and they should have little problems stopping a Jacksonville offense that is 32nd overall (249.5 ypg), 32nd in passing (129.4 ypg) and 31st in scoring (12.5 ppg). This is a pathetic offense with no chance at all at putting 10 or more points on the board vs this very good Houston defense. The Texans are rolling right now and they are loaded on both sides of the ball (even without Schaub), plus the are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite, while the Jags are 1-6 ATS after allowing 15 or less points. Houston by 10+ here. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- In this one we play against any team that scored 14 points or less last week if they are facing a team off a Bye. This system is 37-12 since 1997, including 3-0 this year.
4 UNIT PLAY
Chicago/ Oakland Under 41.5: Caleb Hannie? Cmon. Its a good thing Chicago has a good running game that is 14th in the league at 116.8 ypg and in their last 3 games they have churned out 121.7 ypg on the ground. The Bears have put up 32.2 ppg in their last 5 games, but all of that was with Cutler and he will not be here for this one. I expect Forte and Barber to get plenty of carries and take aim at an Oakland defense that is 26th in the league vs the run allowing 131.6 ypg. This is a big game for Chicago and I don't expect them to put the game in Hannies hands, but they will rely on their run game and a defense that has been hot lately. The Bears defense has given up some yards of late but just 17 ppg and they are 11th in the league vs the run, allowing just 101.2 ypg, and the running game is the strength of the Raiders. The Raiders have aired it out a bit more with Carson Palmer, but they are still all about their 3rd ranked running game that averages 156 ypg. T he Bears have struggled vs the pass (30th), but they have the ability to make the plays at the right time and they are 6th in the league in defensive yards per point at 18.0. Chicago will not try an win this game on the arm of Caleb, so I look for them to run Forte and Barber alot and then rely on their defense. Palmer has the Raider offense playing well, but they won't get much off this Chicago defense today. I expect no more than 35 points in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
NY JETS -9.5 over Buffalo: the Bills looked like they may have turned the corner this year after a hot start, but injuries have hit them hard and they have now lost 3 games in a row and they have really looked bad in doing so. In their last 3 games the Bills have averaged just 8.7 ppg and 268 ypg, while their defense has been torched for 35.3 ppg and 341 ypg. The Bills have alos not taken care of the ball all that well in their last 3 games as they are -7 in TO's during the 3 games. That's not gonna win many games. Now this injury riddled team must take on a Jets team that is very desperate and very pissed off after a couple of bad losses. The Jets tho have the ability to stop this bad Buffalo offense as they bring in the leagues 8th ranked defense overall and 5th ranked pass defense. The Jets can be run on as they are 17th in that category, but Fred Jackson is out and they are very thin at RB so I don't expect the bills to have success running the ball here and a poor passing game certainly won't have success vs Revis and company. Buffalo just has too many injuries and even when they were healthier they lost at home by 16 to this Jets team 3 weeks ago. NY needs this one bad and will get it with ease.
2 UNIT PLAYS
ATLANTA -9.5 over Minnesota: The Falcons have won 4 of their last 5 games and are right behind New Orleans in the NFC South. This is a team that is in the thick of the playoff race and they need to win this easy games if they plan on staying in the race. Minnesota is not having a good year and they will be without Peterson in this one and that will hurt. The Falcons have the 2nd ranked rush defense so their is alot of pressure on their Rookie QB and I don't expect him to have a good showing here. Matt Ryan is 23-4 SU at home and has 41 TD's to just 17 INT's and he should have good success vs the leagues 28th ranked pass defense. The vikes just don't have enough offense or defense to keep this one close.
Tennessee/ Tampa Bay Under 43: Tampa's offense has scored just 16.3 ppg in their last 6 games and yes they scored 26 last week, but that was vs a weak Packer defense. The Tenness defense has played very well this year, allowing just 19.5 ppg overall and 16.7 ppg in thier last 3 games. The Tampa defense has been bad this year, but the titans offense has scored just 20.3 ppg overall and 18.8 ppg at home, plus Hasselbeck will not be at 100% in this one, which should lead to more a ground game for the Titans and that will chew up the clock. I expect a game in the mid 30's here.
1 UNIT PLAY
SAN DIEGO -5.5 over Denver: I still don't think the Chargers season is over. This is a team with too much talent to think they are done, especially in the weak AFC West. denver has had some good wins with Tebow behind center but his magic ends in this one.
5 UNIT PLAY
POWER SYSTEM PLAY
Houston -6.5 OVER JACKSONVILLE: No Matt Schaub, but this team still has Arian Foster, the #1 ranked defense and they get Andre Johnson back for this one. Matt Leihart did not have a great time while in Arizona, but he also didn't play behind a good OL like the Texans have. Matt has also had the benefit of the bye week to get ready for this one, so I expect him to perform well. The Jags have played well vs the pass this year (4th), but they are average at best vs the run, allowing 111.2 ypg, including 129.3 ypg in their last 3 games. This team can be run on and that will only help open up throwing lanes for Liehart. Houston isn't all about their 6th ranked offense as they bring the #1 defense into this game as well. Houston is 1st in total defense (269.7 ypg), 2nd in pass defense (178.4 ypg), 4th vs the run (91.3 ypg) and 3rd in points allowed 16.6 ppg). I though only LSU and Alabama had complet defenses like that. This is a complete defense and they should have little problems stopping a Jacksonville offense that is 32nd overall (249.5 ypg), 32nd in passing (129.4 ypg) and 31st in scoring (12.5 ppg). This is a pathetic offense with no chance at all at putting 10 or more points on the board vs this very good Houston defense. The Texans are rolling right now and they are loaded on both sides of the ball (even without Schaub), plus the are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite, while the Jags are 1-6 ATS after allowing 15 or less points. Houston by 10+ here. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- In this one we play against any team that scored 14 points or less last week if they are facing a team off a Bye. This system is 37-12 since 1997, including 3-0 this year.
4 UNIT PLAY
Chicago/ Oakland Under 41.5: Caleb Hannie? Cmon. Its a good thing Chicago has a good running game that is 14th in the league at 116.8 ypg and in their last 3 games they have churned out 121.7 ypg on the ground. The Bears have put up 32.2 ppg in their last 5 games, but all of that was with Cutler and he will not be here for this one. I expect Forte and Barber to get plenty of carries and take aim at an Oakland defense that is 26th in the league vs the run allowing 131.6 ypg. This is a big game for Chicago and I don't expect them to put the game in Hannies hands, but they will rely on their run game and a defense that has been hot lately. The Bears defense has given up some yards of late but just 17 ppg and they are 11th in the league vs the run, allowing just 101.2 ypg, and the running game is the strength of the Raiders. The Raiders have aired it out a bit more with Carson Palmer, but they are still all about their 3rd ranked running game that averages 156 ypg. T he Bears have struggled vs the pass (30th), but they have the ability to make the plays at the right time and they are 6th in the league in defensive yards per point at 18.0. Chicago will not try an win this game on the arm of Caleb, so I look for them to run Forte and Barber alot and then rely on their defense. Palmer has the Raider offense playing well, but they won't get much off this Chicago defense today. I expect no more than 35 points in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
NY JETS -9.5 over Buffalo: the Bills looked like they may have turned the corner this year after a hot start, but injuries have hit them hard and they have now lost 3 games in a row and they have really looked bad in doing so. In their last 3 games the Bills have averaged just 8.7 ppg and 268 ypg, while their defense has been torched for 35.3 ppg and 341 ypg. The Bills have alos not taken care of the ball all that well in their last 3 games as they are -7 in TO's during the 3 games. That's not gonna win many games. Now this injury riddled team must take on a Jets team that is very desperate and very pissed off after a couple of bad losses. The Jets tho have the ability to stop this bad Buffalo offense as they bring in the leagues 8th ranked defense overall and 5th ranked pass defense. The Jets can be run on as they are 17th in that category, but Fred Jackson is out and they are very thin at RB so I don't expect the bills to have success running the ball here and a poor passing game certainly won't have success vs Revis and company. Buffalo just has too many injuries and even when they were healthier they lost at home by 16 to this Jets team 3 weeks ago. NY needs this one bad and will get it with ease.
2 UNIT PLAYS
ATLANTA -9.5 over Minnesota: The Falcons have won 4 of their last 5 games and are right behind New Orleans in the NFC South. This is a team that is in the thick of the playoff race and they need to win this easy games if they plan on staying in the race. Minnesota is not having a good year and they will be without Peterson in this one and that will hurt. The Falcons have the 2nd ranked rush defense so their is alot of pressure on their Rookie QB and I don't expect him to have a good showing here. Matt Ryan is 23-4 SU at home and has 41 TD's to just 17 INT's and he should have good success vs the leagues 28th ranked pass defense. The vikes just don't have enough offense or defense to keep this one close.
Tennessee/ Tampa Bay Under 43: Tampa's offense has scored just 16.3 ppg in their last 6 games and yes they scored 26 last week, but that was vs a weak Packer defense. The Tenness defense has played very well this year, allowing just 19.5 ppg overall and 16.7 ppg in thier last 3 games. The Tampa defense has been bad this year, but the titans offense has scored just 20.3 ppg overall and 18.8 ppg at home, plus Hasselbeck will not be at 100% in this one, which should lead to more a ground game for the Titans and that will chew up the clock. I expect a game in the mid 30's here.
1 UNIT PLAY
SAN DIEGO -5.5 over Denver: I still don't think the Chargers season is over. This is a team with too much talent to think they are done, especially in the weak AFC West. denver has had some good wins with Tebow behind center but his magic ends in this one.
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