Thursday 9/4/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2025, 08:37 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Kentucky Downs Spot Plays | Thursday, Sept 4, 20

September 3, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

Day 4 of 7 at Kentucky Downs gets the racing week revved with an 11-race card. The $500,000 feature will be the One Dreamer in Race 9, named for the 1994 Breeders' Cup Distaff upsetter who ventured through the former Dueling Grounds.

Kentucky Downs | Race 4 | 3:05 pm ET

#10 My Boy Tony (6-1 morning line odds) has run the 3 best races of his career in his 3 bids over the 1-1/2 miles turf trip that he gets back to Thursday. He's run well over the course and distance he should get a legitimate pace target to pursue with free-wheeling Time Song the likely front-end favorite. Win bet #10. Exactas 10-5 bigger, 5-10 smaller with #5 Mickey Shilleagh (8-1 ML odds) coming out of the same Colonial Downs race and adding blinkers.

Kentucky Downs | Race 6 | 4:13 pm ET

#1 Love Song (5-2 morning line odds) looks to be a very reliable favorite at a meet that's seen 50% winning favorites the first 3 days. Trainer Mike Stidham has been one of the best bets at the track the last 5 years and he's won 2 of his first 3 at the meet and the Colonial shippers continue to be where you want to look for success and value. This regally bred Ghostzapper-Music Note blueblood had no chance last time behind a walking pace and still rallied for a narrow runner-up. Win bet #1. Trifecta bets 1-11-all and 1-all-11 using Rudy Brisset's #11 Good Game (8-1 ML odds) from the other key barn to watch at KD.

Kentucky Downs | Race 11 | 6:05 pm ET

#5 Maginnesontap (3-1 morning line odds) goes for a Brendan Walsh barn that wins 26% with Kentucky Downs 2-year-old maidens coming out of races at Ellis Park like this, boasting a $1.56 ROI for every $1 bet in this situation. Debut third looks better considering 3 different runners who finished behind him July 21 already have come back to win races. Win bet #5.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2025, 08:57 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Kentucky Downs - Race #5

#6 I'm A Little Crazy	Barn landed one like this last weekend at $45 with a second-timer, and this one brings what looks like a pretty forward series of works ahead of the first try. Hoping the barn is just getting their youngsters ready to roll at the right time. Take a long look on the tote and track.
#11 Imaginationthelady	She's one of two debuters coming out of a really solid barn that has just called the right shots for some time -- and the pedigree is here to be effective at this kind of trip early in her career.
#8 Cove Spring	This team made some noise last weekend with a $203 debut winner, and there's nothing wrong with the way this one is coming into the first trip to post, either. Between this filly and the top choice, hoping a couple barns just have the right ones at the time.
Race Summary	Chad Brown and Saffie Joseph also have horses in here, take a look around in a fun race. I'm A Little Crazy and Cove Spring both have some appeal at what I'm hoping are big prices after their barns scored in similar spots last week.

Kentucky Downs - Race #7

#5 Waskesiu	Never want to take too short a price in a race where I feel OK about a couple others, but I think the case for the main rival listed next is the same case for this one, only the drop comes today. Rich enough spot to think they're not just using it as a stepping stone off a Grade III win.
#10 Ramsey Pond	She makes a lot of sense in this spot off the solid score last out in which she didn't have the easiest of trips. Her form outside of stakes company has been pretty compelling, and that should be the case again here today as she takes this next logical step through her conditions -- for $200,000. No argument from me.
#3 Mo Fox Givin	She's got a lot of reliable form on her page that typically lands a non-threatening underneath share, but I think a few of those races this year would keep her in line for a piece of this. Wouldn't be the biggest surprise on top, but I think she needs at least two misfires to land this with her baseline. Maybe more.
Race Summary	Waskesiu should be a handful here if she brings her regular stuff. She has been tough since moving to the turf and brings a last-out Grade III win with her from earlier this year.

Kentucky Downs - Race #9

#6 Watchtower	Think her last was maybe a bit better than it looks when she finished up well to be third in that Grade II spot behind the 8/5 chalk. Prior to that, she caught She Feels Pretty and Be Your Best, so this field is not exactly full of the hardest hitters she's ever seen. Think there is a lot to like here, but I do worry she's too late.
#4 Grayosh	Think she's the one to beat along with the one drawn just outside of her on the rise, and she can be competitive at this kind of level for a top team. She has found some of those graded spots too tough, so this crew might be a bit friendlier for her.
#3 Waves of Mischief	Wouldn't put it past her to land this one, but I think she needs a lot of things to go her way if that's going to happen. Still, she wasn't far off a horse who was back to be second in that Grade II run here last weekend, and she ran well here last season. I could be convinced.
Race Summary	Fun race for a lot of horse who have been toying around with being good ones all battling to land a stakes race. Watchtower has deceptively good form, and I think her better stuff might do the trick today at a midrange offering on the board.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2025, 08:57 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Colonial Downs - Race #3

#3 MILITARY CRUISER (7-2)	Was in winning range in pair of lucrative grass sprints out of town.
#8 REBEL WITH A CLUE (2-1)	Won the duel, lost to trip sitter, returns for seasonal debut.
#6 VIRTUOSITY (9-2)	Piling up the checks but burning money in the process.
Race Summary	MILITARY CRUISER broke slow and didn’t lose much ground after chasing a :43.4 half-mile split at Ellis Park. He should work out a good stalking trip and offer good value in a deep MSW turf sprint. Bet to win and place and play 3-6 and 3-8 exactas.

Colonial Downs - Race #4

#1 AMERICAN UNITY (5-2)	Proven time and time again at this level, can top $200k in turf earnings.
#4 RIGEL (7-2)	Stumbled start proved costly in bid for his fifth consecutive win going a route of ground.
#2 HAPPYISASHAPPYDOES (5-1)	Won 3 of last 5 with speed to spare, but he’s 0-for-7 on turf.
Race Summary	AMERICAN UNITY draws the rail after a winning 6-wide rally under the same conditions at Monmouth Park. He loves to win, doesn’t shy from the photo finish camera and is in the right barn to repeat. Bet to win and place and play a 1-ALL exacta.

Colonial Downs - Race #6

#7 PAEZ (8-1)	Longshot stab off dull try from just off the pace, changes riders again.
#3 VENEZUELA IS GOLD (4-1)	Joseph 3yo returns as gelding, worked :36 bullet on ‘off’ track.
#2 MAMBA MINDSET (5-2)	Maiden winner for $16k, finished ahead of Paez last out, gets Paco.
Race Summary	PAEZ broke his maiden in a turf-to-dirt sprint at this distance three starts ago. He was a non-factor at this level on the Colonial lawn last out, but at an inflated price today, he could sit just off the pace from a favorable post and get the jump on the main contenders if he returns to form. When he previously raced on turf in April 2024, he factored for 6F in a long-distance test won by Class Photo (3-7, $61k), who just won a $20,000 optional claimer here August 15. Bet to win and place and play a 2-3-7 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2025, 08:57 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Albuquerque
PURCHASE

Albuquerque - Race 5	Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / Last Leg Pick 3
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 59 • Purse: $12,100 • Post: 3:10P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * JOLIE CANDY: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has a TrackMas ter "+" designation or an "L" designation. MARKSALOT: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GIRVINITALLSHESGOT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	JOLIE CANDY	9/5	4/1
3	MARKSALOT	7/2	9/2
1	GIRVINITALLSHESGOT	10/1	5/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	JOLIE CANDY	2	9/5	Front-runner	72	59	97.2	44.9	40.4
1	GIRVINITALLSHESGOT	1	10/1	Front-runner	62	48	75.0	40.6	34.6
6	W F AMERICAN HONEY	6	9/2	Front-runner	62	50	37.5	35.6	26.1
4	GIRLS DON'T CRY	4	4/1	Stalker	52	36	65.0	40.2	31.7
3	MARKSALOT	3	7/2	Stalker	64	49	43.3	50.8	47.3
7	DISCREET PLEASURE	7	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	50	50	11.0	31.4	21.9

Unknown Running Style: PARADISEINTHEMAKIN (12/1) [Jockey: Vazquez Jose Miguel - Trainer: Canales Juvencio].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2025, 08:58 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town
PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race 1	EARLY NO CARRYOVER PICK 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5) / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Daily Double (Races 1-2) / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)
Claiming $5,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 62 • Purse: $12,400 • Post: 7:00P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (W V A RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. ANOTHER FINE JUBA is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ALL ABOARD: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, h orse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. ANOTHER FINE JUBA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LUZIA: Horse is dropping in class, has an in side post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TRUE BUCKPASSING: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today 's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
2	ALL ABOARD	5/2	3/1
7	ANOTHER FINE JUBA	6/1	6/1
4	LUZIA	12/1	9/1
5	TRUE BUCKPASSING	12/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	TRUE BUCKPASSING	5	12/1	Front-runner	61	56	68.8	44.2	33.2
2	ALL ABOARD	2	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	74	61	57.8	54.8	51.3
1	KARPATHIAN DREAM	1	8/5	Alternator/Front-runner	69	63	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	LUZIA	4	12/1	Stalker	65	50	47.0	48.8	42.8
3	P B FOXY	3	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	59	57	43.0	39.4	30.9
7	ANOTHER FINE JUBA	7	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	63	54	46.4	47.8	43.3
6	QUIET LUXURY	6	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	40	46	32.4	41.9	33.9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2025, 08:58 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - SO - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 74

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $16,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (RACES WHERE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 QUERY 5/2
# 9 WUDHOOH 2/1
# 8 MS. LAOBANNIANG 7/2

I have to support QUERY here. Is tough not to consider based on speed figures which have been quite good - 61 avg - of late. Should definitely be given a shot in this race if only for the decent Equibase Speed Figure recorded in the last contest. Has performed strongly as of late in sprint races, posting a nifty 75 avg Equibase Speed Fig. WUDHOOH - Might best this group here, showing competitive numbers of late. Could beat this group given the 74 Equibase speed fig posted in her last outing. MS. LAOBANNIANG - The Lasix change (with second time Lasix) may spark a major improvement for this filly. Ran a strong last race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2025, 08:58 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 60

Rating:

#1 FORT BULL (ML=3/1)
#5 TWICE BITTEN (ML=4/1)

FORT BULL - I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough efforts since the vacation and should be fit. Rodriguez moves this gelding to the main track today. Look for improvement from the most recent grass race. TWICE BITTEN - This colt earned a nice speed rating of 65 in his last contest. That speed rating should be strong enough to win this time out. Don't throw this horse out due to his last race at Horseshoe Indianapolis where he finished ninth on the soft turf. Should improve this time around. Has a good opportunity in this race to break maiden switching to the dirt today. This thoroughbred has increased his Equibase speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth considering when its time to bet.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 BABALO'S BOY (ML=2/1), #3 CHASIN' CHAFFIN (ML=5/2), #2 FORT BLING (ML=6/1),

BABALO'S BOY - A pattern of declining speed figs 88/51/34 for this less than sharp equine. This less than sharp equine didn't go to the front and didn't make up any ground in the stretch last time he ran. Don't believe this pony will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed rating was common when compared with today's class rating. CHASIN' CHAFFIN - No accomplishments for this less than sharp equine in a short distance event over the last couple months tells me that this colt is in a thorny spot Finished fourth in his most recent performance with a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this bunch. FORT BLING - Finished third in his most recent performance with a quite unimpressive speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to prove victorious after that in this field.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - FORT BULL - Advancing each step of the way, this horse has recorded significant increases in his speed figures over his last two events.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #1 FORT BULL on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2025, 08:58 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $32640 Class Rating: 84

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 NDIANA BRED MAIDENS AND INDIANA BRED CLAIMING RACES FOR $20,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 MISS SUSAN B 4/1
# 4 PRESHA 2/1
# 7 PURRING 10/1

MISS SUSAN B looks competitive to best this field. Seems to have a strong class edge based on the recent company kept. She should definitely be given a shot given the competitive speed numbers. In fine fettle, and coming right back again this time around. PRESHA - Looks respectable for the conditions of this competition today, showing solid figures in turf route races recently. Demonstrates the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 72 speed fig which is one of the strongest in this group. PURRING - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group lately. Formidable average Speed Figures in turf route races make this pony a contender.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-04-2025, 08:59 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Kentucky Downs - Race #2 - Post: 12:58pm - Maiden Special - 10.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $170,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating:

#2 MENDEE (ML=8/1)
#8 MILDRED PIERCE (ML=8/1)

MENDEE - This front-runner should profit from this contest's shorter trip. The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let her get away early they probably won't catch her. MILDRED PIERCE - Last time out on the sod, this equine was solid. Anything close right here, and this one should win. A definite class advantage goes to this horse. A good indication she will be very competitive in this race on the grass. I like the hard fact that this filly's last speed figure, 89, is tops in this bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 WEIGHTED AVERAGE (ML=5/2), #10 SELFLESS (ML=4/1), #5 PLOT (ML=9/2),

WEIGHTED AVERAGE - I think this probable favorite needs this race under her belt to start getting back into shape. Mediocre fig last out at Gulfstream Park at 1 3/8 miles. Don't think this steed will improve too much in today's race. SELFLESS - Trying to beat this entrant today at the reward of 4/1. PLOT - This sustainer should have a rough go of it to be along in time with an absence of early speed in this race. Registered a somewhat easily forgotten speed rating in the last race in a Maiden Special race on Jul 20th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that fig.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - MENDEE - Consider this filly in your betting in this event. This steed has a top speed number in a route on the turf.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 MENDEE on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	[2,8] with [2,8] with [4,5,6,9,10] Total Cost: $10
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,8] with [2,8] with [4,9,10] with [4,5,6,9,10] Total Cost: $24

Thursday 9/4/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 9/4/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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