Sunday 9/7/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2025, 07:42 AM

Al Cimaglia: The Red Mile Early Pick 4 Analysis

September 7, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

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The Red Mile has a 14-race card under-the-lights. The $1.00 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $7,500 guaranteed pool with a low 12% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (6:45 PM EDT)

2-Unreasonable (6/5)-The team Erv Miller trainee has won 6 of 8 this year and has finished no worse than 2nd. Versatile filly races well on large or small ovals and is the one to beat.
4-Looksgoodinloulou (3-1)-The race should go through the one above, but this son of Sweet Lou has big speed, could come off cover and be the best down the lane. Beat the one above 2 back and did draw the rail that time. But regardless, it would be best to not overlook the Burke trainee who has banked over $400k.

Race 7 (7:05 PM EDT)

1-Uno (5/2)-Raced well in the initial 2 starts in this series. Bagged a win, then lost by a nose. Last time drew the 8-hole and was hung the mile. Now draws inside and Tim Tetrick should be in position to use the big speed this colt has shown in the past. Got on the engine and didn't look back in its 1st race on clay this year. Stopped the clock in 150.1 drawing off by over 9 lengths. This probably won't be that easy but with another top effort the Tony Alagna pupil should have his way with this field.

Race 8 (7:25 PM EDT)

1-Bytheliteofthemoon (4-1)-Not in love with playing a horse coming off a sick scratch in a race that can go in a few directions. But the Chris Ryder entry deserves respect. If it brings the same type of effort as in the races 2 and 3 back, it could be picture time.
2-Swift Sarabi (9-1)-Taking a swing for a price with a Noel Daly student who has drawn the 8 hole twice and post 7 once in the 3 races at Lex. Tetrick could work a suck-around trip and this time be in reach of the leader turning for the wire.
3-Duration (3-1)-Started the last race a short block behind the leader and was 8th by 13 lengths at the half pole. This time leaves from post 3 instead of post 8. Landing a close-up seat off the car could be the winning difference.
7-Duchess Deo (8-1)-Probably needs to go faster than a 1.51 mile to win, and that could happen in its 4th start at the Red Mile since shipping in from Canada. Was used more than once in the last race that led to the 1st win at Lex and the 1st picture this year. The Marna Sheehan 3-year-old appears to be improving, so will string along at a healthy price.

Race 9 (7:45 PM EDT)

1-Dragon Perfect (8-1)-Left from post 7 in last and started slowly but went the back half in .55 to cash a 3rd place check. Has been in good form but will still probably be a solid price. Could connect for a win with an alert start and an efficient trip.
4-One Corona To Go (5/2)-Came a good 2nd against the $20k claimers at Scioto in last. Easily beat a field similar to this two back at Lex. Drops, gets a positive driver change to Dave Miller, lands a decent post, and it looks like all systems go. This is a main player, should get bet and the 5/2 morning line isn't likely to hold up.

$1 Early Pick 4

2,4/1/1,2,3,7/1,4
Total Bet=$16

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2025, 07:43 AM

Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Sha Tin | Sept 7, 2025

September 6, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

After a break that felt painfully long, we’re back and racing in Hong Kong as the new season kicks off at Sha Tin this weekend. With a revamped Prime Burke Ratings system that provides probabilities to finish in the top three and projects lengths beaten or won by, we’re champing at the bit to get back in action. Let’s take a look at the opening day card and see if we can jump in line to cash some tickets.

Helpful Resources
Sha Tin – September 7

Past Performances https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conte...tarter_all.pdf

Speed Pro Pace Projections https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/speed...de.html?race=1

Top 5 Most Likely Winners

Race 1 | #2 COLONEL – 41.7% Win Prob.
Race 3 | #1 KA YING RISING – 63.8% Win Prob.
Race 4 | #3 SUPER STRONG KID – 65.5% Win Prob.
Race 8 | #7 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT – 31% Win Prob.
Race 9 | #11 BULB GENERAL – 47.2% Win Prob.

//

Race 1 | 1200M | Class 5

Win – #2 COLONEL
Exacta Box – 2,12
Quinella – 2 w/ 3,4,9,12

Notes: The 22/1 ML seems to be disrespecting one of our most-likely winners on the card, but this 9-year-old is projected to make a splash on the board. With a price like that, and hopefully it holds when the tote opens, I love this runner’s chances keyed in a Quinella with our other contenders on top of an outright win play.

Race 2 | 1600M | Class 5

Win – #10 PERFECT PEACH
Quinella Box – 3,10,14

Notes: My win play, PERFECT PEACH, is projected second highest to win this Class 4 bout but at 35/1 on the morning line and Zac Purton in the irons, I am chasing this price. Most-likely winner, GOLDEN FAIRY, needs to be included on our tickets alongside MR ALADDIN who could pair up with our big price to make the Quinella a day-maker.

Race 5 | 1400M | Class 4

Win – #12 SIGHT DREAMER

Notes: My top projection in Race 5 happens to sport a lovely morning line of 15/2 and gets a good draw from the third post for leading trainer, John Size. This 5-year-old gelding will only be carrying 120 pounds, and my models favor a weight handicap in sprints more so than routes. Going just seven furlongs, I think SIGHT DREAMER has more than a fair chance at finding the wire first.

Race 6 | 1200M | Class 4

Win - #1 SUNDAY’S SERENADE
Quinella– 1 w/ 3,5,6
Trifecta Key Box – 1 w/ 3,5,6

Notes: Playing the price here, I like SUNDAY’S SERENADE at a morning line of 54/1 to be one of the surprises on the card. There is some inexperienced talent in this field, and the natural variance of horse racing lends me bake in some reassurance. However, recent form has led the local line makers to rate this horse as the highest in the field and my models are following suit.

Race 7 | 1200M | Class 4

Win - #2 FANTASTIC FUN
Quinella – 2 w/ 10

Notes: Finally, a son of JUSTIFY looks solid enough to be worth a bet in Hong Kong. A surprising number of his progeny are running in Hong Kong, and far more often than not they struggle against the locals. However, I like FANTASTIC FUN to buck the trend in this six-furlong dash. Let’s pair him up with a shorter-priced COLOURFUL WINNER, who I have as most likely to take this race, to snag a well-priced Quinella.

Race 8 | 1400M | Class 2

Win - #7 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT
Quinella – 7 w/ 8,9

Notes: My best bet on the card, one of my top five most likely winners is priced as a huge overlay according to my model. CHIU CHOW SPIRIT will be carrying 18 pounds less than the morning line favorite and gets a preferred post from just outside the rail. His neighbor in the gate, MICKLEY, appears to be formidable as well so we’ll make sure we pair those two up in the Quinella and bank a little on our top choice making the better of the two campaigns.
Good luck!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2025, 07:50 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Kentucky Downs
PURCHASE

Kentucky Downs - Race 5	Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / Superfecta / Double / $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Maiden Special • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 94 • Purse: $170,000 • Post: 2:38P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $50,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BRIGHT SKITTLE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a spr int and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. WAR LEGEND: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. RIPPED: Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lb s. OUTOFPI: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
10	BRIGHT SKITTLE	1/1	9/2
14	WAR LEGEND	6/1	6/1
1	RIPPED	8/1	7/1
6	OUTOFPI	30/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	RIPPED	1	8/1	Front-runner	85	85	77.7	73.0	65.0
12	RITUAL	12	20/1	Front-runner	0	0	51.2	46.5	31.5
10	BRIGHT SKITTLE	10	1/1	Stalker	92	89	74.0	84.1	80.6
11	ATLAL	11	10/1	Stalker	83	76	65.9	65.6	48.6
14	WAR LEGEND	14	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	90	63.4	77.8	70.8
6	OUTOFPI	6	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	84	74	53.3	75.3	63.8
5	GALANTINI	5	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	85	76	50.8	71.6	58.1
13	NASH POTATOES	13	30/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	61.6	73.0	56.0
2	URBAN RULER	2	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	32.2	71.1	55.6
3	CORTINA (IRE)	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	69	55.6	66.9	47.9
9	NO BILLS CAMPAIGN	9	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	57	54.8	66.8	49.8
7	CITY OF LIFE	7	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: I'M TROUBLE (9/2) [Jockey: Rosario Joel - Trainer: Ward Wesley A], RYU MO (30/1) [Jockey: Figueroa Sergio - Trainer: Torres Marcelino].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2025, 07:50 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 3	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager) $1 Pick Three $2 Pick Six
Claiming $3,500 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $9,000 • Post: 8:04P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2025. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500 (MAIDEN RACES AND RACES FOR $2,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * HOT PURSUIT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has th e highest TrackMaster Power Rating. FAST PER SE: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. SONIC BREES: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. EREBUS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	HOT PURSUIT	4/1	5/1
1	FAST PER SE	5/2	6/1
7	SONIC BREES	3/1	6/1
3	EREBUS	3/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	FAST PER SE	1	5/2	Front-runner	78	72	88.0	63.4	55.9
5	HOT PURSUIT	5	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	78	81	84.5	72.2	65.7
7	SONIC BREES	7	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	79	65.0	76.8	70.3
3	EREBUS	3	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	79	77	51.4	72.8	67.3
2	CITY OF CHAMPIONS	2	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	72	88.0	65.0	54.5
4	BLACKJACK AND BEER	4	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	79	71	66.0	71.8	64.8
6	SAN JAC	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	73	51.6	66.2	55.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2025, 07:51 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grants Pass

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $5000 Class Rating: 82

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 ANGEL J 8/1
# 4 LA ORGULLOZA 5/2
# 2 APOLLITICALCOLLUSION 3/1

ANGEL J supports the bet in here particularly if the morning line of 8/1 holds. Samuels ought to be able to get this gelding to break out early for this race. Has to be carefully examined based on the very strong speed figure recorded in the last outing. Has a solid shot in this race if you like back class. LA ORGULLOZA - Overall the speed figs of this racer look respectable in this outing. The Equibase speed fig of 72 from her last race looks very good in here. APOLLITICALCOLLUSION - Recently Magallanes has provided investors with a quite good winning percentage with horses racing in short races. Displays formidable Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2025, 07:51 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #6 - Post: 9:05pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#3 RUNAWAY BEAUTY (ML=4/1)
#5 XHILARATINGPURPOSE (ML=8/1)

RUNAWAY BEAUTY - Looking at today's class figure, this thoroughbred is up against an easier bunch than last race out at Mountaineer Park. Entered an Allowance race at Mountaineer Park last out and raced on the mud finishing fourth. Will most certainly do better right here. This filly faced open company last time out. Moving into a restricted state bred today. Is well worth a look. Ranked number 1 in earnings per start. Another sign that this horse is the class of the race. XHILARATINGPURPOSE - You always have to be on the prowl for bankroll building jockey/handler teams; we have it right here. Last race was at Mountaineer Park in a race with a class rating of 81. Dropping a significant amount in class figure this time puts her in a solid position right here. This mare is most certainly on the improve with speed figures of 49, 60, 66 last three out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 CLIMATE CHANGE (ML=9/5), #1 STILL GRUMPY (ML=3/1), #6 PORTIA'S HOPE (ML=6/1),

CLIMATE CHANGE - This chalk horse hasn't been to the track in awhile. No morning drills since last race. STILL GRUMPY - This thoroughbred likes to be there at the wire, but doesn't usually win. Forget the top spot. This sustainer looks to have almost no chance without a ding-dong battle up front. PORTIA'S HOPE - Quite unimpressive rating last time out at Mountaineer Park at 7 1/2 furlongs. Don't feel this entrant will improve too much today.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - RUNAWAY BEAUTY - Made up lots of ground on Aug 13th at 6 furlongs. Should relish the distance of 1 mile.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 RUNAWAY BEAUTY to win if you can get at least 9/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2025, 07:51 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $56000 Class Rating: 79

GP - R4 - FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 WELCOME TO AMERICA (IRE) 8/5
# 2 TREE C'S KAI 4/1
# 6 BOTTOMLESS MIMOSA 9/2

I think WELCOME TO AMERICA (IRE) is a very strong choice. She has recorded very strong figs under today's conditions and should fare well against this field. This filly with Zayas in the saddle makes her a solid choice. The Equibase Speed Fig of 74 from her most recent race looks strong in here. TREE C'S KAI - Vaunts formidable speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. Earned a very good speed fig last time out. BOTTOMLESS MIMOSA - With Gonzalez uptop her, this filly will probably be able to break out quickly in this event. Sano and Gonzalez have won 17 percent of their races giving this pony a solid chance.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2025, 07:51 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Hawthorne - Race #2 - Post: 3:21pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 42

Rating:

#4 WILD DREAMS (ML=8/5)

WILD DREAMS - Rode this thoroughbred on August 17th and Gonzalez is back again in the irons this time. Stand by this horse. No other viable early speed gives this horse a strong chance at the winner's circle.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 LA MULA UNO (ML=5/2), #3 ILLY SIMZ (ML=7/2), #1 TOUR DE' PORT (ML=9/2),

LA MULA UNO - Hasn't been close to winning at all recently. Should have at least hit the board in the last 60 days in a sprint race to be any kind of value at modest odds in a sprint. ILLY SIMZ - This thoroughbred just hasn't looked ready lately. Will be hard for this horse to beat this group off of that last speed fig. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put her on the likely underlays list. TOUR DE' PORT - Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint events of late. Not likely to see her doing it this time either.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 WILD DREAMS is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with 5
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2025, 07:52 AM

Del Mar Tip Sheet - September 7

Sep. 06, 2025

Race #1
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:30 PM ET
$26,000.00

Race 1 Claiming

Win	5-2	2	Blue Fashion	H I Berrios
Place	3-1	3	Eltonsingsanother	A Lezcano
Show	4-1	5	Petite Ange	T Baze
Wild card	6-1	8	Looks Lucky	K Frey
Alternate 1	10-1	1	Maniae	D Cohen
Alternate 2	8-1	9	Coldasice	A Ayuso

Exacta 2-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/5 BOX, 3/5/8 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:00 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 2 Maiden Special Weight

Win	4-1	10	Ocean Bear	U Rispoli
Place	5-2	2	Arisaka	A Fresu
Show	6-1	9	Southern Melodee	A Ayuso
Wild card	8-1	6	Tommy Norris	D Cohen
Alternate 1	6-1	8	Tamarando Beach	A Aguilar
Alternate 2	10-1	3	Billie Holiday	A L Bautista

Exacta 10-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX
Trifecta 2/9/10 BOX, 2/6/9 BOX
Race #3
Turf 1 3/8 Miles - Post Time: 05:33 PM ET
Best Bet #3 RASTAMAN VIBE
$81,000.00

Race 3 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	3-1	3	Rastaman Vibe	J J Hernandez
Place	6-1	10	Caisson	R Silvera
Show	12-1	11	Sbagliato	T Gaffalione
Wild card	7-2	4	Dicey Mo Chara	U Rispoli
Alternate 1	6-1	5	Baldoro	D A Herrera
Alternate 2	12-1	1	Reiquist	K Kimura

Exacta 3-10 BOX, 10-11 BOX, 11-4 BOX
Trifecta 3/10/11 BOX, 4/10/11 BOX
Race #4
Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:06 PM ET
$300,000.00

Race 4 Stakes

Win	1-1	2	Brant	F Prat
Place	4-1	5	Desert Gate	J J Hernandez
Show	6-1	6	Litmus Test	T Gaffalione
Wild card	6-1	3	Balboa	K Kimura
Alternate 1	9-2	4	Civil Liberty	A Fresu
Alternate 2	15-1	1	Brigante	H I Berrios

Exacta 2-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
Trifecta 2/5/6 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
Race #5
Turf 5 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:39 PM ET
$80,000.00

Race 5 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-2	11	Mystic Moses	R Silvera
Place	5-1	9	Mo Holland Drive	K Kimura
Show	3-1	5	Violets Song	J J Hernandez
Wild card	4-1	7	Ventry Strand	H I Berrios
Alternate 1	8-1	2	Forever Ben	T Baze
Alternate 2	12-1	6	Beep	J Laprida

Exacta 11-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX, 5-7 BOX
Trifecta 5/9/11 BOX, 5/7/9 BOX
Race #6
Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:11 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 6 Maiden Special Weight

Win	12-1	6	Sendit Mo	R Silvera
Place	5-2	3	Cherokee Nation	J J Hernandez
Show	3-1	1	Boyd	T Gaffalione
Wild card	5-1	8	Rhodes	K Kimura
Alternate 1	8-1	11	Cactus Charlie	H I Berrios
Alternate 2	6-1	10	Sharons Maxfield	F Prat

Exacta 6-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-8 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/6 BOX, 1/3/8 BOX
Race #7
Turf 5 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:41 PM ET
Best Bet #1 STYLE CAT
$81,000.00

Race 7 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	12-1	1	Style Cat	J J Hernandez
Place	12-1	2	Arrakis	A Fresu
Show	6-1	7	Regal Patriot	R Silvera
Wild card	12-1	3	Flyover	T Gaffalione
Alternate 1	7-2	6	Golden Ale	R Gonzalez
Alternate 2	12-1	12	Listenupshance	T Baze

Exacta 1-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/7 BOX, 2/3/7 BOX
Race #8
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 08:11 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 8 Maiden Special Weight

Win	3-1	10	Cheever	A Fresu
Place	6-1	5	Modus Bestia	F Prat
Show	8-1	6	Kokosan	H I Berrios
Wild card	4-1	3	Latitude	M E Smith
Alternate 1	15-1	9	Beneficial	K Kimura
Alternate 2	8-1	8	Singlemore	W R Orantes

Exacta 10-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX
Trifecta 5/6/10 BOX, 3/5/6 BOX
Race #9
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 08:41 PM ET
$100,000.00

Race 9 Stakes

Win	8-1	3	Proletariat	K Frey
Place	4-1	5	Hey Nay Nay	H I Berrios
Show	12-1	14	Love the Pressure	A Espinoza
Wild card	8-1	7	Later Than Planned	U Rispoli
Alternate 1	8-1	4	Plutarch	J J Hernandez
Alternate 2	5-1	2	Dirty Rich	R Silvera

Exacta 3-5 BOX, 5-14 BOX, 14-7 BOX
Trifecta 3/5/14 BOX, 5/7/14 BOX
Race #10
Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 09:11 PM ET
Best Bet #12 CHRISTEL CLEAN
$81,000.00

Race 10 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	7-2	12	Christel Clean	H I Berrios
Place	5-1	10	Danzingwith Maxine	M E Smith
Show	4-1	3	Dont Ju Forget	J J Hernandez
Wild card	12-1	7	Thirsty Trickster	W Antongeorgi III
Alternate 1	10-1	5	Rizzleberry Rose	A Fresu
Alternate 2	10-1	6	Fancy Facts	K Kimura

Exacta 12-10 BOX, 10-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
Trifecta 3/10/12 BOX, 3/7/10 BOX
Race #11
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 09:41 PM ET
$81,000.00

Race 11 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	7-2	3	Cuban Confusion	U Rispoli
Place	6-1	14	Septembersixtyfour	K Kimura
Show	5-1	4	Broski	A Fresu
Wild card	8-1	8	Uncle Happy	H I Berrios
Alternate 1	9-2	2	Friendly Confines	F Prat
Alternate 2	6-1	1	Takes Three	K Kimura

Exacta 3-14 BOX, 14-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX
Trifecta 3/4/14 BOX, 4/8/14 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2025, 07:53 AM

Kentucky Downs Tip Sheet - September 7

Sep. 06, 2025

Race #1
Turf 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:25 PM ET
Best Bet #3 VALALA
$100,000.00

Race 1 Maiden Special Weight

Win	4-1	3	Valala	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	7-2	9	Gorrono Ranch	L Saez
Show	6-1	6	Miss Soothsayer	J L Ortiz
Wild card	8-1	7	Dontmindifido	A Concepcion
Alternate 1	8-1	11	Toast the Star	W A Rodriguez
Alternate 2	15-1	14	Struck At Midnight	J L Ortiz

Exacta 3-9 BOX, 9-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX
Trifecta 3/6/9 BOX, 6/7/9 BOX
Race #2
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 01:58 PM ET
$170,000.00

Race 2 Maiden Special Weight

Win	3-1	13	Getting Serious	L Machado
Place	5-2	2	Infinite Sky	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	9-2	4	Windy Houston	A Beschizza
Wild card	10-1	16	Tikihut	J Rosario
Alternate 1	6-1	9	Payton Abbey	L Machado
Alternate 2	6-1	12	Lion Lake	L Dettori

Exacta 13-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-16 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/13 BOX, 2/4/16 BOX
Race #3
Turf 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:31 PM ET
$190,000.00

Race 3 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	3-1	7	Collective Beauty	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	8-5	5	Catalonia	J L Ortiz
Show	4-1	6	Clowning Around	J R Velazquez
Wild card	12-1	14	Back Ring Buzz	J Rosario
Alternate 1	8-1	1	Lovely Grey	A Concepcion
Alternate 2	20-1	11	Dreaming Collect	A Achard

Exacta 7-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-14 BOX
Trifecta 5/6/7 BOX, 5/6/14 BOX
Race #4
Turf 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:05 PM ET
$190,000.00

Race 4 Allowance

Win	5-2	11	Turino	L Saez
Place	8-1	14	Tickin Time Blonde	J Rosario
Show	9-2	4	Rosato	C A Torres
Wild card	8-1	13	Toasted Roll	L Dettori
Alternate 1	8-1	3	Modern Sound	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	6-1	7	Claimed	J Rosario

Exacta 11-14 BOX, 14-4 BOX, 4-13 BOX
Trifecta 4/11/14 BOX, 4/13/14 BOX
Race #4
Turf 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:05 PM ET
$190,000.00

Race 4 Allowance

Win	5-2	11	Turino	L Saez
Place	8-1	14	Tickin Time Blonde	J Rosario
Show	9-2	4	Rosato	C A Torres
Wild card	8-1	13	Toasted Roll	L Dettori
Alternate 1	8-1	3	Modern Sound	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	6-1	7	Claimed	J Rosario

Exacta 11-14 BOX, 14-4 BOX, 4-13 BOX
Trifecta 4/11/14 BOX, 4/13/14 BOX
Race #5
Turf 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:38 PM ET
$170,000.00

Race 5 Maiden Special Weight

Win	1-1	10	Bright Skittle	J Alvarado
Place	6-1	14	War Legend	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	10-1	11	Atlal	J R Velazquez
Wild card	9-2	4	Im Trouble	J Rosario
Alternate 1	15-1	5	Galantini	A Beschizza
Alternate 2	20-1	12	Ritual	M Gutierrez

Exacta 10-14 BOX, 14-11 BOX, 11-4 BOX
Trifecta 10/11/14 BOX, 4/11/14 BOX
Race #6
Turf 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:12 PM ET
Best Bet #3 BUTTERCREAM BABE
$200,000.00

Race 6 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	5-2	3	Buttercream Babe	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	8-1	9	Goats On a Tree	L Dettori
Show	9-2	2	Niki Nine Doors	J L Ortiz
Wild card	8-5	8	Summerintahoe	J R Leparoux
Alternate 1	12-1	7	Reagans Flame	J A Torres
Alternate 2	20-1	6	Floating Beauty	E Morales

Exacta 3-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/9 BOX, 2/8/9 BOX
Race #7
Turf 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:46 PM ET
$170,000.00

Race 7 Maiden Special Weight

Win	4-1	13	The Standard	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	6-1	15	Gnome	A Beschizza
Show	20-1	2	High Honors	B Curtis
Wild card	4-1	8	Wonder Mist	J Rosario
Alternate 1	9-2	4	Chasing Freedom	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	8-1	6	Vintur	J L Ortiz

Exacta 13-15 BOX, 15-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX
Trifecta 2/13/15 BOX, 2/8/15 BOX
Race #8
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 05:21 PM ET
Best Bet #2 SABALENKA
$210,000.00

Race 8 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	6-1	2	Sabalenka	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	9-5	1	Shes Lookin Lucky	J Rosario
Show	4-1	6	Strikingly Spun	J L Ortiz
Wild card	8-1	10	Crevalle dOro	J R Velazquez
Alternate 1	10-1	9	Belle of Rights	B J Hernandez Jr.
Alternate 2	12-1	12	Windy Walk	L Saez

Exacta 2-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-10 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/6 BOX, 1/6/10 BOX
Race #9
Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 05:54 PM ET
$1,000,000.00

Race 9 Stakes

Win	8-5	7	Street Beast	L Machado
Place	9-2	1	Awesome Connection	J L Ortiz
Show	8-1	3	J J Grey	B J Hernandez Jr.
Wild card	8-1	10	Thunder Zeus	K J Asmussen
Alternate 1	10-1	9	Chalky White	L Saez
Alternate 2	10-1	6	Duke of Suggins	J Graham

Exacta 7-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-10 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/7 BOX, 1/3/10 BOX
Race #10
Turf 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:28 PM ET
$1,000,000.00

Race 10 Stakes

Win	7-5	3	Lennilu	L Saez
Place	6-1	9	Z Zs	L Dettori
Show	4-1	4	Snow Face Princess	I Ortiz Jr.
Wild card	8-1	5	Quiet Street	J Alvarado
Alternate 1	15-1	12	Kingsolver	J L Ortiz
Alternate 2	20-1	1	Carolyncaroline	J R Leparoux

Exacta 3-9 BOX, 9-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
Trifecta 3/4/9 BOX, 4/5/9 BOX
Race #11
Turf 1 5/16 Miles - Post Time: 07:02 PM ET
$170,000.00

Race 11 Maiden Special Weight

Win	4-1	7	Founders	J R Velazquez
Place	8-1	13	Two Past Eight	T Kingsley
Show	9-2	10	Chapmans Peak	I Ortiz Jr.
Wild card	6-1	9	Crystal Hill	F Geroux
Alternate 1	12-1	3	Power of Will	L Dettori
Alternate 2	10-1	2	Abbi Fede	E Morales

Exacta 7-13 BOX, 13-10 BOX, 10-9 BOX
Trifecta 7/10/13 BOX, 9/10/13 BOX

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-07-2025, 07:54 AM

Kentucky Downs Hotlist - September 7

Sep. 06, 2025

By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman
Hot List Key:
A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4^th or worse
* - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
1st race – (6) Miss Southsayer was a good third on synthetics. Should handle turf. (1) Pedital might like the added distance. (3) Valaha should be competitive in this field. (9) Gorrono Ranch could be effective in this field. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-3-6-9.
3rd race – (5) Catalonia was impressive in his turf debut and looks best here. (6) Clowning Around shapes up as the main rival. (7) Collective Beauty cannot be ignored in this field. (1) Lovely Grey will be helped by a rail trip. Betting strategy: 5 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-5-6-7.
5th race – (4) I’m Trouble seems set for a strong effort in his debut. (10) Bright Skittle has been knocking on door of a maiden win and is the one to fear. (11) Atlal may respond to a dirt to turf switch. (3) Cortina can bounce back with a better showing here. Betting strategy: 4 to win, place. Exacta box: 3-4-10-11.
7th race – (12) Brave Force has an interesting pedigree and some fast works. Get the nod here. (8) Wonder Mist looks like another promising firster. (4) Chasing Freedom could be a threat on his best try. (11) Helmet of Will is worth a look in this field. Betting strategy: 12 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-8-11-12.
9th race – (7) Street Beast exits a sharp win at the meet and can make it two straight wins. (2) Ciborio was a promising second and merits attention. (1) Awesome Connection could be tough to catch here. (10) Thunder Zeus might make some noise here. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-7-10.