Tuesday 9/9/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2025, 06:18 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Who Handles Dirt in Tuesday's Canadian Triple Crown

September 8, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The 90th running of the Prince of Wales Stakes returns Tuesday to Fort Erie, and King’s Plate winner Mansetti eyes the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. The uniqueness of the series north of the border is that it moves from Tapeta to dirt to turf by the time it ends in the Breeders Stakes. Which of the 7 runners handles dirt best will tell the tale of the Prince of Wales.

Mansetti is a son of Collected, whose prolific career on dirt included wins in the Sham, Lexington, Californian and Grade 1 Pacific Classic, while finishing second in the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic behind Gun Runner. Mansetti’s half-brother Straight Up G was a successful California-bred on dirt, winning the King Glorious at Los Alamitos and the Mine That Bird Derby at Sunland, while finishing second in Santa Anita’s Cal Cup Derby. While Mansetti was a tired fifth in the Jerome on dirt at Aqueduct in his only try over the footing, that was against open company and the only start without Lasix in his career – he’ll race on Lasix at Fort Erie. He had a strong, local half-mile workout over the dirt for this.

Faber finished third on dirt at Fair Grounds in allowance company last December 26, but was beaten 9 lengths in a field of 4. The 41-1 sixth-place finisher in the King’s Plate has more than 6 lengths to make up on Mansetti on Tuesday. Like that one’s sire Collected, Faber is by another Bob Baffert dirt dynamo in sire Improbable – also a Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up (2020). Improbable won the Whitney, Hollywood Gold Cup and Awesome Again among other dirt races and was beaten favorite in both the 2019 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. Faber is the first foal out of Disobedient to race, and she was a winner on both dirt and turf in just 4 career starts for Brad Cox.

Razor-sharp debut winner Runaway Again was thrown to the King’s Plate wolves in his second start and never fired after some initial trouble. He’s by versatile sire Hard Spun, yet another Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up in the immediate pedigree lines in this race. Hard Spun won the Lecomte and King’s Bishop on dirt and was second-third-fourth in the 2007 US Triple Crown series. According to Betmix, Hard Spun has a strong 30: 7-9-5 record at Fort Erie with his offspring on dirt (23% wins, 53% exacta), including 2017 Prince of Wales fourth-place finisher All On Red. The damside of the pedigree lacks dirt influences.

Scorching, fourth in the King’s Plate, has never run on dirt. His sire Mo Town won the Remsen on dirt as a juvenile but got a signature turf score at 3 in the 2017 Hollywood Derby. His offspring have been a mix of turf and dirt successes, the sharp sprint mare Mystic Lake a millionaire on dirt. Mo Town has a single starter on dirt at Fort Erie, a claimer who won 2 of 5 local tries. Dam Samsal won twice on dirt at Finger Lakes in claiming company, but hasn’t produced much with experience on dirt. Samsal is half-sister to solid turf mare Stormy Rush.

King’s Plate last-place finisher Ashley’s Archer is half-brother to 2014 Prince of Wales winner Coltimus Prime, who bounced back from a Queen’s Plate ninth on the former Woodbine synthetic. Ashley’s Archer is by 2014 Breeders’ Cup Mile and French Two Thousand Guineas winner Karakontie, a turf specialist. Karakontie is best known at stud for star turf mares She Feels Pretty, Spenderella and Princess Grace. His son Sole Volante transferred to dirt in 2020 and won the Sam F. Davis and finished second in the Tampa Bay Derby. This Mark Casse trainee also took well to the Tampa surface, finishing second on the dirt there in a March allowance sprint as the favorite.

Humber River makes his stakes and dirt debut fresh off an allowance win on Woodbine’s Tapeta. Sire Frac Daddy was second on dirt in the Kentucky Jockey Club at 2 and the Arkansas Derby at 3 before being trounced in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont. He found more success on synthetic and turf later in his career. He’s been modest at stud with Owlette perhaps his best offspring as a synthetic specialist. Frac Daddy has had a slew of Fort Erie dirt entrants, winning nearly 17% from 130-plus starters (including 3 separate FE stakes-placed 2024 performers). Dam Miss Sea never raced on dirt and her only other foal finished third and fourth in a pair of dirt claimers at Fort Erie in 2024.

Dewolf rounds out the lineup and tries dirt for the first time in his 10th start. The son of Silent Name split the King’s Plate field in fifth. His mama Holy Cargo is half-sister to 2000 Preakness winner Red Bullet, but she finished off the board in a pair of Laurel dirt bids in her racing career. The damside of the pedigree has been non-descript, but a half-brother did win a pair of claiming races on the Fort Erie dirt in 2024. Sire Silent Name was a turf and synthetic performer and two-time Breeders’ Cup Mile alum on grass. He’s had a prolific number of Canadian starters, including more than 300 on dirt at Fort Erie, winning at 10% and 22% in the exacta.

Bottom Line:

I'd give Runaway Again a chance to bounce back from a disappointing Plate. His debut was too good to slough off and the Hard Spun pedigree influence has played strong at Fort Erie. Mansetti remains the horse to beat even on the surface change, while Ashley's Archer might be a sneaky inclusion to move up on the switch to Fort Erie. That's my top-3 in order.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2025, 08:31 AM

rian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#6 Dreaming of Kona	He'll go in search of his third score in a row after somehow paying nearly $9 in a three-horse field last time out, and he should get another good trip tracking the speed. Lots to like at what might be a mildly playable price.
#4 John Dutton	Similar profile for this guy and the one drawn just inside of him, neither of whom would be much of a surprise with their dangerous pace. That said, this one wins the draw to be able to attack early from the wider draw.
#2 Spirited Sol	He almost always gets overlooked to some degree, and I think there is enough sharp form in here to leave him at another solid number on the board. Could be there for another piece.
Race Summary	Dreaming of Kona has some reliable local form and meets enough decent opposition today to think the price may stay playable. Let's see.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#1 North Ship	He has had a lot of chances already, but there are a couple of races on his page that I think were a bit better than they look, and he could be finishing fast on the cutback.
#2 Yes I'm Jess	Not going to argue too hard with anyone landing here in hopes that his reliable form will do the trick here. Tactical type should be in a great spot throughout.
#3 Il Cavalino	Price will be short here, but his better stuff would obviously be good enough to land this one. That said, he's not particularly reliable and may be here in search of anything to wake him up on the new footing. Won't shock anyone, but I don't have a high confidence level.
Race Summary	North Ship has some midrange price appeal while turning back, and I'm curious how she'll stack up at this kind of trip with the local crew.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#1 Go Simple	Pace will have to work from the fence and turn some tables on horses who beat him in the past, but I like the direction he's heading in and think he can play here with another step forward.
#2 Fistfulofmoney	He beat the top choice when they met here earlier in the meet, but he has gone on to produce only a couple flat stakes efforts since then, and their respective prices probably won't reflect how competitive they might be right now.
#5 Jes See Me	He was no match for the top choice when they met, but he turned around with a romping score own his own since then. He's not totally overmatched with another move forward.
Race Summary	Go Simple might be the right one here with a solid score to his credit last time out and a career trajectory that hints that he might be moving the right way. Right horse at the right time?

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2025, 08:32 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #3

#6 ATHLETIC LIKE (8-1)	Would like to follow the footsteps of his sire, has solid work foundation.
#9 ARABIA WILD (5-2)	Late food in debut, ran second to first-time starter who ran in follow-up stakes.
#4 GRAND MAHOGANY (4-1)	Barn on 9-35 run with 2-year-olds, dam won her only start in MSW sprint.
Race Summary	ATHLETIC LIKE shows a :47 and :47-2/5 gate move from a series of workouts dating back four months as he preps for his one-mile debut. His sire, Authentic, won the 2020 Kentucky Derby and was a multiple Grade 1 winner of $7.2 million. Bet to win and place and play 6-4 and 6-9 exactas.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #4

#2 OSCAR D (9-2)	True colors showed at this level in his first turf test, suited to go one mile.
#4 DEWY’S DENALI (12-1)	Broke slow, some inroads on final turn, barn good MSW-to-claimer angle.
#9 PIED PIPER (4-1)	Keeping busy in the morning for top barn; dam wired field in debut sprint.
Race Summary	OSCAR D angled 5-wide in early stretch and finished third in a much improved second start on the switch to turf. He finished between a trio of deep closers, none of whom could reach the winning favorite. The added ground should sit him well, so bet to win and place and play a 2-4-9 exacta box.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #5

#6 TIMBOS TANGLER (3-1)	Found proper level, should sit ideal trip in second start locally.
#7 RAG TREE (4-1)	Plunges in second start for barn, has $50k placing in 12-horse field to summon.
#2 MI COMPADRE (5-2)	Awakened on yielding turf in second start with blinkers, worked bullet since.
Race Summary	TIMBOS TANGLER bid at the 5/8th pole but couldn’t sustain in a shorter grass route race at this level. But his turf numbers remain solid and he projects a good stalking trip with plenty of pace up ahead. Bet to win and place and play a 2-6-7 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2025, 08:32 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie
PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 9	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta
Stakes • 1 3/16 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 96 • Purse: $400,000 • Post: 5:35P
PRINCE OF WALES S. - FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS, FOALED IN CANADA.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. MANSETTI is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MANSETTI: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SCORCHING: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. FABER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Spee d Figure at the distance/surface.
3	MANSETTI	2/1	7/2
4	SCORCHING	3/1	7/1
1	FABER	5/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	MANSETTI	3	2/1	Front-runner	94	93	92.2	76.0	71.5
7	DEWOLF	7	7/2	Stalker	92	75	96.5	79.3	68.3
4	SCORCHING	4	3/1	Stalker	90	84	93.5	83.8	79.8
6	HUMBER RIVER	6	12/1	Stalker	83	84	56.7	80.7	71.2
5	ASHLEY'S ARCHER	5	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	89	90	87.8	70.9	58.9
2	RUNAWAY AGAIN	2	10/1	Trailer	86	84	86.5	77.8	72.3
1	FABER	1	5/1	Trailer	94	89	70.2	85.8	77.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2025, 08:32 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Assiniboia Downs
PURCHASE

Assiniboia Downs - Race 3	ROLLING DOUBLE / .20 ASD JACKPOT PICK 5 (Races 3-7) / .20 PICK 3 (Races 3-4-5) .20 SUPERFECTA / .20 TRIACTOR / EXACTOR
Stakes • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $40,000 • Post: 8:25P
DISTAFF S. - FILLIES AND MARES, 3-YEAR-OLDS & UPWARD. MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN FOALS. WEIGHTS: 3-YEAR-OLDS, 117 LBS. OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $18,000 ONCE IN 2025 ALLOWED 5 LBS. FEES: $100 NOMINATION TO BE PAID TO THE ASD BOOKKEEPER IN THERACE OFFICE AUG 30.- $350 TO ENTER - $350 TO START. NON-NOMINATED HORSES CAN BE MADE ELIGIBLE BY PAYING 10% OR PURSE AT TIME OF ENTRY PLUS ENTER AND START FEES.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. RUSSIAN PEARL is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ISLAND HIGH: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse is highest ranked on Good Speed and Good Class. MECHANIC SUSIE: Horse has run a Good Rac e within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DAZZLING GOLD: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. RUSSIAN PEARL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	ISLAND HIGH	15/1	7/2
7	MECHANIC SUSIE	1/2	6/1
1	DAZZLING GOLD	10/1	9/1
8	RUSSIAN PEARL	40/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	RUSSIAN PEARL	8	40/1	Alternator/Front-runner	76	71	66.4	68.3	55.8
5	NIKKITYSPLIT	5	8/1	Stalker	70	69	98.6	64.5	55.0
3	ZIBIBBO	3	20/1	Stalker	68	67	61.2	61.2	49.7
1	DAZZLING GOLD	1	10/1	Stalker	78	72	45.5	69.2	61.2
6	COMMANDOSLASTDANCE	6	20/1	Stalker	79	71	40.4	62.9	50.9
2	ISLAND HIGH	2	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	82	79.2	79.2	75.2
7	MECHANIC SUSIE	7	1/2	Alternator/Stalker	80	75	72.1	74.3	70.3
4	CATCH THE DREAM	4	6/1	Trailer	78	69	76.4	70.2	59.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2025, 08:33 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fairmount Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 56

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 9 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 ROYAL BLOOD 9/2
# 2 K O AMERICAN PIE 5/2
# 3 FOREVER BLESSED 15/1

ROYAL BLOOD looks formidable to best this field. The extreme drop in class can only help this one this time around. This pony could upset this field of horses at a big price. Her earnings per start in dirt sprint contests alone makes you take a look at her. K O AMERICAN PIE - Martinez has a strong 17 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. The Equibase Speed Figure of 50 from her latest race looks solid in here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2025, 08:33 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $5000 Class Rating: 83

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TWO-YEAR-OLDS WHICH WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THESE TRIALS. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. FINALISTS MUST PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL NEGATIVE HAIR TEST PRIOR TO ENTERING IN THIS FINAL.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 KOWBOY BOOGIE 6/1
# 6 I ARE A COWGIRL 8/5
# 8 PARAJAX 4/1

KOWBOY BOOGIE is the best bet in this race. Has the looks of a money-making play. With a nice Equibase class figure average of 78, has one of the best class advantages in this group of horses. I expect a very good performance from this equine whose trainer has one of the best return on investment percentages with horses running at this distance and surface. I ARE A COWGIRL - Is tough not to examine based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been very strong - 72 avg - of late. Has very strong early lick and will almost certainly fare soundly versus this group. PARAJAX - Is a strong contender based on figures earned recently under today's conditions. Bettors should take a good look at this one as this colt has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group of animals.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2025, 08:33 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #3 - Post: 1:34pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 64

Rating:

#6 MISS RAUCUS (ML=5/2)

MISS RAUCUS - This filly likes to sit just off the pace and the way things shape up here, she should get an idyllic trip. Gonzalez and Vega perform well when they partner up. It's hard to beat a +22 return on investment for a jockey and trainer. Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this racer is meeting an easier field than last time out at Parx Racing. This filly's last figure is high enough to triumph here, I'll play her back again this time. I like to wager on this handicapping theory, a campaigner coming back off a good race within the last month.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MAGGIE MISCHIEF (ML=2/1), #3 MOMMA PIC (ML=3/1), #2 CDAKHAT (IRE) (ML=5/1),

MAGGIE MISCHIEF - This vulnerable equine hasn't been on the track since August 3rd. Not even any works. MOMMA PIC - Hard to take this entrant at the odds after the finish position (third) in the last race. CDAKHAT (IRE) - Generally I need a sprinter to have some success lately in short distance contests in order to back her.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 MISS RAUCUS is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-09-2025, 08:33 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race #2 - Post: 4:33pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 66

Rating:

#7 LEISURELY (ML=9/2)
#6 RODESSA FLASH (ML=7/2)

LEISURELY - He keeps getting closer at the finish with each and every start. Taking a trip to a lower class rank; has the power to make his presence felt. Have to give this gelding a good shot. Ran a nice race in the last race within the last thirty days. This horse has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 36 to 50 to 73 in a row. RODESSA FLASH - When you handicap turf races, it's always a good idea to look for a horse who has won over the course. Ran against 'open' company last race out, in with state breds today. Ran last time around the track against a higher rated class of horses at Louisiana Downs. The move down in class should suit him well. You have to really like that latest race speed rating, 76, which is the top recent race fig of this bunch. This racer is for real on the turf. TrackMaster turf fig in last race at Louisiana Downs was tops in this group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 C D'S WILD FIRE (ML=5/2), #4 A G'S GEM (ML=5/1), #5 LOUISIANA NATIVE (ML=5/1),

C D'S WILD FIRE - Can't play this favorite off the extended vacation. Not probable for this thoroughbred to do much running with no success lately in a short distance contest. It seems like too much early speed is on board in this race. This speed merchant will most likely get cooked on the front end. A G'S GEM - You always believe this horse has a shot to be victorious, but he comes up short most of the time. This gelding earned a speed figure in his last event which likely isn't good enough today. LOUISIANA NATIVE - Can't play this horse in today's sprint of 5 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint affair lately.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 LEISURELY to win if we can get at least 9/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

Tuesday 9/9/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Tuesday 9/9/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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