Wednesday 9/10/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2025, 02:32 PM

Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Happy Valley | September 10, 2025

September 9, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

KA YING RISING dominated with ease in his prep for the Everest, Hong Kong locals had a big showing in the Korea Cup and Sprint, and just like that I dare say we are back in mid-season form in Hong Kong. We’re bouncing back to Happy Valley for some midweek action, and I’ve added a race grade to my selections to help rank my confidence in each race, so let’s get to it and find some winners!

Helpful Resources
Happy Valley – September 10

Past Performances https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/conte...tarter_all.pdf

Speed Pro Pace Projections https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/speed...de.html?race=1

Most Likely Winners

Race 1 | #7 WOODFIRE CHAMP – 27.7% Win Prob.

Race 6 | #1 QUANTUM PATCH – 33.9% Win Prob.

Race 7 | #9 FLYING WROTE – 22.8% Win Prob.

Race 8 | #3 SOVERIGN FUND – 51.6% Win Prob.

Race 1 | 1200M | Class 5

Win – #7 WOODFIRE CHAMP
Quinella – 7 w/ 1,3,6,8

Grade: A

Notes: WOODFIRE CHAMP looks like a potential standout in this field but will be up against a tough competitor in SUPER CHARIZZARD who is dropping down from a few tough runs in the Class 4 ranks. The Michael Chang barn got off to a hot start at Sha Tin going 4-2-0-1 on opening day, and my model thinks the hot start is bound to continue. Let’s combine our top pick with the next most likely winners for the Quinella.

Race 2 | 1650M | Class 5

Win – #7 COOL BLUE
Quinella – 3 w/ 1,4,7

Grade: B

Notes: On the opposite side of the scale when it comes to barns, Chris So went 0-for-9 to open the meet but looks to have a potential breakthrough in the newly claimed COOL BLUE. His only win in Hong Kong came at this distance over the Happy Valley turf course, and he gets his lucky mount back for his season debut. My numbers rate this horse as the highest in the field, but not far behind is potential longshot EN PERFECTO at 53/1 on the Morning Line who we’ll key in the Quinella ticket. Play COOL BLUE to win, but let’s see if we can make our week with a big exotic ticket around a big price.

Race 3 | 1000M | Class 4

Win – #4 GRAND NOVA

Grade: C

Notes: John Size runs an impressive operation training in Hong Kong, and I’m going to need him to pull through in one of my more lowly graded races on the card. GRAND NOVA will have to take down the rare 6/5 Morning Line favorite, but my model has this race pointing entirely at my top pick as the clear best in the field. GRAND NOVA will need to make his dash a bit earlier than he did in his last six-furlong outing, but if he gets the right trip I think he’s going to be tough to beat.

Race 4 | 1650M | Class 4

Exacta Box – 1,5

Grade: A

Notes: I’m not claiming to be taking any big swings in this race, but my model points to two clear standouts in GOOD LUCK BABE and MIGHTY STEED. I don’t want to overcomplicate it, I’ll box the two best in the Exacta and hope to get the better payout of the two potential winning combinations.

Race 5 | 1650M | Class 3

Win - #11 SAMARKAND
Quinella – 11 w/ 1,2

Grade: C

Notes: This race was tough to parse as three potential candidates stand out from the rest of the field. Judging on a mix of price and my projections, I landed on SAMARKAND as the best value to win the race and at 12/1 on the Morning Line well worth keying in the Quinella. Karis Teetan gets the call after a few near-wins on opening day, and our bet will be in his hands as he guides our top pick to a hopeful victory.

Race 7 | 1200M | Class 4

Win - #9 FLYING WROTE
Trifecta – 9 w/ 2,11 w/ 1,7

Grade: C

Notes: This race gets a C for me because there isn’t a clear-cut choice according to my numbers. However, I do think this race provides a chance to dabble in the Trifecta pool with my most-likely winner keyed on top. At 5/1, FLYING WROTE isn’t a huge swing, but I’ll play this Tri for more than the $0.20 minimum and hope I make up for a lack in big odds with a bigger stake.

Race 8 | 1200M | Class 3

Win - #3 SOVEREIGN FUND
Exacta – 3 w/ 5,6,12
Trifecta – 3 w/ 5,6,12 w/ 1,2,9

Grade: A

Notes: If you handed me a crisp $100 bill and told me to stake it all on one runner, every penny would go on SOVEREIGN FUND. The numbers love this runner, his recent form before the break has been fantastic, he gets a favorable draw for his stalking style given the two-turn course, and I’m going to follow suit. Let’s play him to win, tack on some potential prices to finish second in the Exacta, and then round out the Tri with some of our shortly priced contenders. If all falls into place, we could capitalize on a ML favorite in a way that pads the bankroll.

Good luck!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2025, 02:32 PM

Jeremy Plonk: Kentucky Downs Spot Plays | Wed 9/10

September 9, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The last of 7 Kentucky Downs programs for 2025 includes 11 races, highlighted by the Grade 3 $2 million Dueling Grounds Oaks in Race 10. After a good start to the meet, last week took its toll with little luck. Let’s finish strong in the finale.

Kentucky Downs | Race 1 | 1:25 pm ET
#11 Tropical Night (12-1 morning line odds) represents a Rudy Brisset barn that’s been one of the most effective and profitable with limited Kentucky Downs strikes in recent years. First-time starter lures Tyler Gaffalione, who wins 38% in pairings with Brisset. Barn not known for rookie success, but did debut a turf sprint winner this summer at Churchill at 9-2 odds. Perfectly spaced and quick workout tab since early July for this lucrative maiden purse. By elite turf sprinter World of Trouble, she’s kin to 3 runners who raced, including a debut winner and debut runner-up. Win-place bet #11.

Kentucky Downs | Race 4 | 3:05 pm ET
#1 Tickin Time Blonde (20-1 morning line odds) wheels back off a maiden win Aug. 31 over the course for a trainer in Vickie Oliver not known to cram 2 starts in at Kentucky Downs (only 3 times over the last decade-plus). Tells me she responded well off the win and leading rider Frankie Dettori rides again. Slow speed figure the reason for the high ML price, but she’s a turf sprinter catching a lot of routers in this spot and may be fast enough. Win-place bet #1.

Kentucky Downs | Race 9 | 5:57 pm ET
#8 Green Light (8-1 morning line odds) looks to bounce back from a disappointing stakes try at Ellis Park. The easier class level helps, and it appears this colt was a cut below his best both times at Ellis, perhaps not taking to that short-cropped turf course as well as others. First time at Kentucky Downs, but the Churchill, Saratoga and Keeneland form fits today. Win-place bet #8. Exacta box 9-14 with Quatrocento if that recent meet winner is able to draw in from the also-eligible list. Daily Doubles 9,14 with 7,2 to the Brad Cox-trained pair of Fionn and Destino d’Oro in the featured Dueling Grounds Oaks.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2025, 02:33 PM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #0

#2 That's Me	Think there might be a little bit of upside here after showing only brief chasing pace in that last one. The move around two turns should offer a more leisurely tempo, and that should keep her right up on the pace today. Might stay.
#5 Starship Legacy	Tactical speed has managed to turn in a couple decent efforts going long at this level, and that should keep her in the mix again here today if she can hold that form. Still, a bit concerned about her being one-paced in the final yards.
#1 French Benefits	She'll try the local footing for the first time having already faced some better groups elsewhere, and she has a little bit of pace to use from the fence. Wouldn't be a surprise, but I'm not that enthusiastic at what might be a mild kind of price.
Race Summary	That's Me looks interesting enough here while stretching out against a group without a whole lot of proven finishing punch. Could see her finding an OK first-jump run that would give her a chance turning for home at an OK price.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#1 Omikami	She occasionally shows a touch of tactical pace that might serve her well in here, as there are a couple speedier players drawn just outside of her who may set her up for a decent tracking run from the inside. I'm intrigued.
#6 My Jannet	Considered this one on top despite the dull recent form, as I think she's coming out of a couple of races that might be better than they look at first glance. Could see her making some noise here with her A-game.
#2 Sweet Nola	She can be a tough here and might handle these easily at a short price, but I worry that the one drawn just outside of her will give her a forward tussle just long enough to soften her up.
Race Summary	Omikami can be a bit more tactical than she showed in her last couple, and showing just a tiny touch of that early interest could leave her in a great spot to save some ground while watching that unfold.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#5 Snovember	Solid lean here while cutting the tag in half again today, as he owns a couple of good back efforts in which he knocked on the door with similar. The winner of his last would loom large in a spot like this.
#1 King Reigert	He's an obvious player here while getting back to the scene of the race in which he crossed the wire first before getting DQ'ed a few starts back. Obviously his better stuff makes him a player at this level, but I wouldn't want a short price to find out. The right kind of forward trip should be there.
#7 Noble Hero	You've got to go way back in the form to find anything to write home about, but he has been in for higher prices than this throughout his career and could wake up enough to land a share with this softer crew.
Race Summary	Snovember has honest enough form and has been a good fit with this kind of company, and I don't think there's anyone like the winner of his last in here. I'll lean heavily on him here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2025, 02:33 PM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#2 BAD TEMPER (9-5)	Finished in the money in eight consecutive starts with no wins.
#3 LADY ARWEN (8-1)	Made move, flattened out as class-dropping fave against top one.
#1 STYLE TO FOLLOW (3-2)	Takes some catching from the rail but she’s 1-for-11 at 6F.
Race Summary	BAD TEMPER, claimed five times since March, hasn’t won this year, but she is knocking on the door and could turn the tables on speedy, rail-sitting fave STYLE TO FOLLOW with an extra half-furlong to travel. Bet to win and place and play 2-1 and 2-3 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #2

#2 KING PLUTUS (8-1)	Showed pulse for higher tags, starts fresh for good barn with these types.
#4 FRAME UP (9-5)	Finished second on short rest, adds blinkers, changes riders again.
#1 PARLAY FOR DESTINY (5-2)	Low 40 Beyers in last four main-track routes translate well in this spot.
Race Summary	Can’t get excited about short prices on the favorites, so taking a price shot on KING PLUTUS, who enters a high-percentage barn with new acquisitions and layoff types. He raced close-up for 6F in three longer route races at various venues this year, holding second in one of them. Bet to win and place and play a 2/1, 4/ALL trifecta.

Delaware Park - Race #3

#1 FALFURRIAS (5-1)	Tactical change backfired, projects ideal stalking trip at a good price.
#3 MISTER MULDOON (7-2)	Won 4 of last 7 turf races by a combined 18 lengths at Canterbury.
#9 PRETORIAN GOLD (9-5)	Carried out 4-wide into stretch and inched away to allowance win.
Race Summary	FALFURRIAS raced closer to the pace than usual in allowance company and it backfired. But he’s a steady mid-70 Beyer type who rallied for a win and a second with blinkers on in his two previous starts. Bet to win and place and play 1-3 and 1-9 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2025, 02:34 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park
PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race 8	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 20 cent Super High 5
SO $12,500 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 4:05P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS IN 2023 - 2025 OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $12,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 10, 2025 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED). (IF TRANSFERRED TO THE MAIN TRACK, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT ONE MILE AND 70 YARDS.).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * ZIGGZAPPA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Ra ce within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. COUNCILWOMAN JILLY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in Trac kMaster Power Rating.
2	ZIGGZAPPA	5/2	3/1
6	COUNCILWOMAN JILLY	8/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	DIFFERENTLY	4	7/2	Front-runner	81	83	92.0	77.8	67.8
9	MINT DRIVEN	9	5/1	Front-runner	78	64	89.9	75.9	63.4
8	ISA LEI	8	15/1	Front-runner	87	79	88.6	70.6	62.1
7	LADY HAMILTON	7	9/2	Front-runner	81	75	87.8	74.2	67.2
5	ICE QUEEN	5	12/1	Front-runner	86	79	80.4	77.0	70.0
3	Q BOND	3	15/1	Front-runner	73	60	65.8	61.5	45.5
6	COUNCILWOMAN JILLY	6	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	83	81.4	75.6	69.6
2	ZIGGZAPPA	2	5/2	Trailer	87	87	79.6	86.8	84.3
1	MUSED (GB)	1	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	67	46.8	46.8	28.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2025, 02:34 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Albuquerque
PURCHASE

Albuquerque - Race 7	Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / Second Leg Pick 4
Claiming $6,250 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $12,200 • Post: 4:00P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JUNE 10, 2025 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 10 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250. NEW MEXICO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * COASTAL FOG: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top t hree in TrackMaster Power Rating. BRAZEN NOW: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). ALG EBRA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BURNZ DA BOSS: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMas ter Power Rating.
7	COASTAL FOG	5/2	9/2
4	BRAZEN NOW	4/1	5/1
2	ALGEBRA	3/1	6/1
3	BURNZ DA BOSS	10/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	TSUNAMI GOLD	5	6/1	Front-runner	81	66	69.3	64.6	52.1
7	COASTAL FOG	7	5/2	Front-runner	94	76	61.3	76.6	72.6
4	BRAZEN NOW	4	4/1	Stalker	87	81	64.5	74.8	70.8
2	ALGEBRA	2	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	83	68.0	74.2	68.7
3	BURNZ DA BOSS	3	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	85	76	43.0	73.4	66.9
1	AWESOME BID	1	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	81	70	61.8	65.4	53.9
6	LEWIS BERE (FR)	6	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	89	77	54.8	69.2	61.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2025, 02:35 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Kentucky Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Allowance - 6.5f on the Turf. Purse: $190000 Class Rating: 99

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $45,000 ON THE TURF SINCE AUGUST 10 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 ITS BOURBON THIRTY 5/1
# 4 VESTURE 12/1
# 6 HIT THAT REVIEW (IRE) 9/2

ITS BOURBON THIRTY looks to be a very good contender. Looks quite good to be on the lead at the first call. With a competitive 99 speed figure last time out, will surely be a factor in this race. He has a quite good distance/surface win record - 1 - 1. VESTURE - Looks strong to be on or close to the front end at the first call. Overall the speed figures of this equine look very good in this contest. HIT THAT REVIEW (IRE) - Is a solid contender based on figures garnered lately under today's conditions. Win percentage with this jock and trainer combo - 21 percent - reliable.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2025, 02:35 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13700 Class Rating: 73

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2025 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. MANITOBA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 MOONMAN RULES 20/1
# 1 BRINSON 2/1
# 8 FLYING TEX 4/1

I've got to go with MOONMAN RULES especially at such a decent 20/1. Has run well when racing a dirt sprint race. Could best this field based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 74 - of his last effort. Highly ranked earnings per start at the distance/surface in this group. BRINSON - Has posted sound Equibase speed figs in dirt sprint races in the past. Parris will probably be able to get this colt to break out sharply here. FLYING TEX - Gourneau is trying to win with this one by bringing him back so quickly.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2025, 02:35 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:21pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#6 BOLD AMBITION (ML=2/1)

BOLD AMBITION - Faced tougher in the last race at Penn National. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this one on my list of contenders. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. This gelding is number one in earnings per start. Give the once over to this one before the race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 FIGHT FIERCELY (ML=3/1), #2 MOGALU (ML=4/1), #7 BELTS 'N BROOKS (ML=6/1),

FIGHT FIERCELY - Improbable for this entrant to do much running with no recent success in a short distance affair. MOGALU - The speed figs continue to decline, 78/72/62. Not a healthy signal. BELTS 'N BROOKS - This equine hasn't been in the mix in either of his last two races around the track. Today's contest is 6 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a short distance event in the last 60 days. Not the best of signs. Will be hard for this horse to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put him on the vulnerable contenders list.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - BOLD AMBITION - This is an automatic bet for me. This gelding is the top TM Power-rated mount and his rating towers over the rest.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #6 BOLD AMBITION on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2025, 02:35 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #7 - Post: 8:39pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#4 SYLVIA I AM (ML=10/1)
#3 RIDGE WARRIOR (ML=7/2)
#2 LOCK BARREL (ML=5/2)

SYLVIA I AM - This gelding should give a strong account of himself in today's race. RIDGE WARRIOR - The jockey/trainer tandem of Ramos and Kulp has a strong return on investment together. LOCK BARREL - He keeps getting closer at the finish with each and every start. You'll be generating money left and right by turning your racing money onto this rider/conditioner combination. This gelding is in nice condition. Ended up first on August 20th. That 66 fig this gelding notched in his last clash tells me he's a major player this time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 JACE IS NO JOKE (ML=2/1), #7 THICK AND JUICY (ML=9/2), #6 MIRACLE TRIP (ML=8/1),

JACE IS NO JOKE - Hasn't been on the Penn National oval in the last three weeks. Cause for some concern. Last performed on August 17th at Monmouth Park, finishing fourth. Unlikely to perk up off of that outing in today's race. THICK AND JUICY - He showed not much at all in the last event. This gelding probably needs a more preferred pace scenario to make his late rush. MIRACLE TRIP - In any race of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to back a contender that has been looking good in short distance contests recently. 8/1 is not enough of a value to take on most any animal that has run poorly in back to back efforts. Won't be easy for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed fig. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put him on the vulnerable contenders list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #4 SYLVIA I AM on the nose if you can get odds of 4/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

Wednesday 9/10/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 9/10/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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