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Scott Shapiro: Churchill Opening Day Spot Plays | Thursday

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September 10, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

Racing returns to the home of the Kentucky Derby on Thursday for a short 14-day September meet before the circuit heads east to Keeneland for their popular fall meeting. As has become the tradition, a twilight Thursday card gets things rolling in Louisville for the first time since spring with a 5PM eastern start. Here are a few horses I plan to build my wagering around to kick off the stand.

Race 5:

The lone turf race on the Thursday agenda attracted a full field of second-level allowance foes led by morning line favorites #8 Depiction and #1 Money Supply. These two have taken on better in their career and have the ability to come with strong late runs when they are at their best, but are not for me at their likely off odds. Instead, I will hope to spring the upset with #10 Theismann. Things have not gone as planned for the $1.15M Keeneland September 2021 purchase, but he appears to have found a home on the grass. The Quality Road gelding was up against it from a trip and race shape perspective in his sprint effort over this turf course on June 11, but put things together in his first attempt going two-turns on the sod at Ellis on August 2. Hopefully, the Peter Eurton trainee can make it two straight with jockey Luis Saez taking the call for the first time.

Play: #10 Theismann (12-1 ML)


Race 6:
Trainer Al Stall Jr. did not take many horses to Saratoga this summer, but had solid success with the ones he deemed worthy of making the voyage to upstate New York. #4 Solemn Vow is one of those that competed at Saratoga and did so against the typical live group of MSW foes entered in their 2YO races. The Constitution filly lacked speed from the gate in her August 2 debut, but made a middle move before tiring late in a race that saw the first and third place finishers come from well off the early pace. Stall apparently means business in this gal’s second career start legging up Tyler Gaffalione. I would be surprised if she does not take a big step forward in her first start under the twin spires.

Play: #4 Solemn Vow (4-1 ML)


Race 7:
My final spot play of the day comes in this $141k allowance event at 6.5-furlongs over the main track where there is not much early speed signed on. I expect either #1 Jersey Pearl or #2 Easy Red to be aggressively ridden out of the gate assuming good breaks, which should allow Tyler Gaffalione to find a perfect stalking position with #3 Marmalade Skye. The daughter of Danza has been freshened up by trainer David Jacobson after a pair of wins against lesser over this surface in the spring. In her most recent effort versus second-level allowance foes in late May, Marmalade Skye worked out a very similar trip to the one I expect her to on Thursday evening. Hopefully, it is good enough to make it three straight for the Kentucky-bred that has been a new horse since moving into the Jacobson barn late last year.

Play: #3 Marmalade Skye (9-2 ML)

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Remington Park - Race #6

#6 Lucy's Halo	Think the next one might have a bit more upside, but this filly has room to come forward in the second start back off the bench, and the hope is that a couple other forward players will soften up that likely chalk.
#2 West Code Mischief	Sharp debut try when short less than a length for it all here last month, but that gives her license to step forward enough at second asking to be a handful with these. The one to beat.
#4 Let'sgojlo	There are a couple of OK sprint runs on the page, so I'm willing to give her a pass for the last one and hope she has some upside in the second start off the break. Better stuff might do.
Race Summary	Lucy's Halo has honest enough finishing form, and she might have a bit more late punch today after getting the comeback race under her belt.

Remington Park - Race #8

#6 Withering Gaze	Reliable finisher has to turn a couple tables from that last one, but he wasn't far off the other two from that race he'll meet again today, and I think he gets over the top today.
#7 Work Zone	That last one was solid enough to think he's in the frame again today with something similar, and he's got enough positional pace to spy the speed early. Enough to like.
#3 Gwyneth's Malibu	He needs a pretty big form reversal to play here, but he was solid over the local course last year and may be capable of something better than he showed in that flat try behind some of these last out.
Race Summary	Withering Gaze is a pretty honest finisher, and that is enough to catch my eye in a race without a whole lot of compelling form signed on.

Remington Park - Race #9

#2 Mucho Mia	She tends to do her best work at the slightly softer tracks on the local circuit, but I think she gets a decent enough race flow to potentially get past these late with a groundsaving trip. Price should be solid.
#1 Secret Verse	Her ability to occasionally get past horses may serve her well in this spot, as there isn't a lot of serious finishing form signed on in a race with a few potential forward players. Makes sense.
#5 Sangria Sunset	She looked good in that last start of the 2024 campaign, and she can probably find a pretty good spot right up top or in a pressing spot with these. Could be the one to reel in at the eighth pole.
Race Summary	Mucho Mia and Secret Verse draw well to save some ground while watching the early pace unfold, but the former should be a much better price with a more consistent late-running style I'm looking for today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #3

#8 HAWKSTONE (7-2)	Lands in dream spot to pick up first win since maiden score, today’s Best Bet.
#9 JUST FOR THE MONEY (5-2)	Rallied too late as the odds-on favorite in turf-to-dirt sprint.
#7 UPTOWNEAGLESLANDED (10-1)	Has speed and shortens up, use underneath in gimmicks.
Race Summary	HAWKSTONE, slowed at the break for twice this claiming price, should sit a good trip from just off the pace in a field that lacks quality speed. He broke his maiden at this distance on the Delaware lawn a year ago. Bet to win and place and play an 8/7, 9/ALL trifecta.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#5 SOMETHINGWONDERFUL (8-1)	Good prep for this on short rest, can use her speed wisely.
#1 MISSY’S MAP (6-1)	Hit board in 4 of last 5 starts at one mile, changes riders, draws rail.
#7 AMERICAN PEACHES (2-1)	Steady low-50 Beyers translate well but 1-for-20 record doesn’t.
Race Summary	SOMETHINGWONDERFUL showed good speed in a two-turn allowance at Charles Town to begin her 4-year-old season. She has done little since but tuned up for this with a good rally at 4F on short rest at Timonium. Bet to win and place and play a 1-5-7 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #7

#11 HEGS (9-2)	Returns to winning level, early position the key with new rider aboard.
#7 GO TAKE CHARGE (5-1)	Worked his way into photo-finish view in 5 of last 11 starts.
#9 SILK WAR (8-1)	Lightly-raced 7-year-old ‘rallied mildly’ to finish second on the class drop.
Race Summary	HEGS won in the same spot when claimed two starts back with a similar stalking trip that could unfold the same way today if he navigates post 11. He raced evenly while 4-wide in a much tougher field last out. Bet to win and place and play a 7-9-11 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Albuquerque
PURCHASE

Albuquerque - Race 7	Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / Second Leg Pick 4
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $27,000 • Post: 4:00P
FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. JMARK is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * JMARK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GESARA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ADIEL: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. GIMME A WHO: Horse has a TrackMas ter "B" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	JMARK	6/1	7/2
6	GESARA	7/2	6/1
2	ADIEL	5/1	7/1
5	GIMME A WHO	8/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	GIMME A WHO	5	8/1	Front-runner	69	52	36.3	50.6	45.1
7	HUMOROUS GHOST	7	8/1	Front-runner	0	0	0.0	41.7	31.7
2	ADIEL	2	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	67	72	55.3	51.3	45.3
3	JMARK	3	6/1	Stalker	68	68	70.3	60.4	56.4
6	GESARA	6	7/2	Trailer	64	65	0.0	61.6	57.6
1	AIR SPORT ONE	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	42.2	37.8	26.3

Unknown Running Style: STORMWIRE (4/1) [Jockey: Da Silva Fausto H - Trainer: Fincher Todd W], TAP THE PRIZE (12/1) [Jockey: Vera Gerardo - Trainer: De La Cruz Vilma I], LIL BOB BLACK JACK (15/1) [Jockey: Vazquez Jose Miguel - Trainer: Hernandez Jr L]

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis
PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 5	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 2nd Leg of $1 Horseshoe Hat Trick Turf Pick 3 / 10 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / ITOBA $1 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-
Claiming $12,500 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $23,800 • Post: 4:14P
(RAIL AT 48 FEET). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (INDIANA BRED MAIDEN AND LIFETIME CONDITIONAL RACES FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY). IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BORN FLASHY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. STRADIVARIAN: Horse ranks i n the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MULTIPLE OPINIONS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. VINO CALDO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating . C'EST MAGNIFIQUE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
8	BORN FLASHY	5/2	9/2
12	STRADIVARIAN	10/1	7/1
6	MULTIPLE OPINIONS	6/1	8/1
7	VINO CALDO	7/2	9/1
10	C'EST MAGNIFIQUE	8/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	VINO CALDO	7	7/2	Front-runner	82	87	90.8	76.6	67.1
3	FORE FLAG	3	12/1	Front-runner	79	71	88.9	68.2	48.7
1	TEXAS CYCLONE	1	10/1	Front-runner	72	67	63.0	73.3	61.3
13	LYTE CRUDE	13	12/1	Stalker	75	74	84.1	71.1	49.6
14	CHARBON	14	20/1	Stalker	83	80	65.8	71.6	52.1
8	BORN FLASHY	8	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	86	85	96.6	86.8	79.8
12	STRADIVARIAN	12	10/1	Trailer	83	81	76.8	80.9	72.9
6	MULTIPLE OPINIONS	6	6/1	Trailer	86	82	73.9	78.7	65.7
2	GHOST PRINCE	2	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	85	82	68.4	75.2	58.7
10	C'EST MAGNIFIQUE	10	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	86	82	63.0	72.8	61.3
9	SON OF A GRAY	9	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	71	102.4	30.3	9.3
4	TRAIN AND TRUST	4	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	75	71.0	63.6	52.1
11	MR OKLAHOMA	11	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	73	66.4	61.6	41.6
5	BOYS CODE	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	88	84	62.8	65.0	49.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Belterra Park - Race #8 - Post: 4:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#6 SCOVILLE (ML=5/1)
#5 BAYTOWN BULLEIT (ML=9/2)


SCOVILLE - This horse could be tough in today's race, especially since Murgia rode last race out and now should be more familiar with this one. McGuire brings him back again. I recommend you stick with this hot gelding. Murgia and McGuire perform well when they work together. It's hard to beat a +157 return on investment for a rider and conditioner. The improved speed figs over the last three races is strong. McGuire drops him in this race ready to go. BAYTOWN BULLEIT - Last out, this one was in a race at Presque Isle Downs in a race with a class number of 81. Dropping significantly in Equibase class figure this time around puts him in a solid position today. This horse brings in a lot of dough per race around the track. Number one in this affair.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 MIDNIGHT NOIR (ML=5/2), #2 STARSHIP D'ORO (ML=7/2), #4 THE TOWN TAP (ML=8/1),

MIDNIGHT NOIR - Tough to put any dough on this gelding on the win end. Likes to end up on the board though. STARSHIP D'ORO - If you keep selecting these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be let down often. THE TOWN TAP - The fourth place finish in the last affair was not the best. Doubtful that the speed figure he garnered on Aug 6th will be good enough in this race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 SCOVILLE is going to be the play if we are getting 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $23800 Class Rating: 85

IND - R5 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 BORN FLASHY 5/2
# 7 VINO CALDO 7/2
# 10 C'EST MAGNIFIQUE 8/1

My choice for this event is BORN FLASHY. Ought to be given consideration here on the basis of the figures in the speed section alone. Put up a solid speed figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this affair. The average Equibase class figure of 80 makes this horse difficult to beat. VINO CALDO - This conditioner has done well lately with entries travelling at this distance and surface. The Equibase speed fig of 88 from his last race looks very strong in here. C'EST MAGNIFIQUE - With a formidable return on investment of +12 this trainer has shown very strong results with entries running at this distance and surface. I like the jock on this gelding - formidable chance to win the outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Charles Town - Race #6 - Post: 9:21pm - Allowance - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,700 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#7 SPEEDY BUBBLES (ML=4/1)
#2 TALENTED LORD (ML=9/2)
#6 CASTLE TOY (ML=10/1)


SPEEDY BUBBLES - Peltroche has this mare placed in the right event. TALENTED LORD - Horse didn't land in the money in last race, but did beat half the field, and made up ground down the stretch. A slight improvement and this horse should be right there at the end. CASTLE TOY - I took a look at this mare's finishes. She's almost always on the board. Aboard this entrant on August 15th and Latchman is right back in the irons today. A win percentage the likes of what Latchman and King have achieved together is terrific.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 REDHOTCHILIPHILLY (ML=9/5), #4 GHOSTLY SQUALL (ML=8/1),

REDHOTCHILIPHILLY - I don't normally play a morning-line choice that hasn't been to the track in the last three weeks. GHOSTLY SQUALL - Exhibited signs of physical problems in the contest on August 15th at Charles Town. This steed ran a mediocre speed figure in the last race. She shouldn't improve and will probably get beat in today's event running that fig. This mare will likely bounce, and not even come close to the recent speed figure of 75.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 SPEEDY BUBBLES to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,6,7] with [2,6,7] with [2,3,6,7,8] with [2,3,6,7,8] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Colonial Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 11 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $35000 Class Rating: 88

OUTER TURF FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE AUGUST 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 SOUPER ATTENTIVE 8/5
# 5 LOOK TO THE CROSS 4/1
# 7 SUMMER VIBES 10/1

I think SOUPER ATTENTIVE is a quite good choice. Has decent Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a wager in here. Must be considered in this event if only for the very good Equibase Speed Fig earned in the last race. The average class rating of 84 makes this entrant hard to beat. LOOK TO THE CROSS - Should best this group here, showing competitive figs of late. Had one of the best speed figures of this group of horses in his last contest. SUMMER VIBES - Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. With a solid 81 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest.