Wednesday 9/17/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-17-2025, 06:23 AM

Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Happy Valley | September 17, 2025

September 16, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

After a weekend away, I know you were all anxiously refreshing the page waiting to see these picks appear (kidding, of course, we’ve been off to a cold start), we’re back for the mid-week Happy Valley action! It’s a rather light day with just eight races lined up, but let’s see if we can uncover something good to get us through to the weekend.

Helpful Resources

Happy Valley – September 17

HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...se=HV&RaceNo=1

Race 1 | 1000M | Class 5

Win – #4 NOBLE DELUXE
Quinella Box – 4,8,11
Grade: B

Notes: There isn’t a ton I love about this opening race, but my model produced two standouts and a third competitor that all happen to be priced well on the Morning Line. A few runners are dropping in class, but my model works on strength of race and individual performance regardless of the formal classification. That bit of impartiality should play in our favor in the opener as we lean against the Morning Line favorite and go for a better payout.

Race 2 | 1200M | Class 4

Win – #6 CALIFORNIA BLITZ
Quinella Box – 6,9,12
Grade: C

Notes: This is the race with the most equal distribution of win probabilities across the card. For that reason, the race gets a “C” grade from me, but that doesn’t mean we can’t take a shot on some prices that seem to all have equal shots of winning. Spread the love and hope they return the favor. It’s hard to find much other than a lot of zeroes in the win column throughout this field, so I’m going to rely on my numbers and try to sort out who might be overlooked.

Race 3 | 1800M | Class 4

Win - #9 FIREFOOT
Quinella – 9 w/ 1,3,7
Grade: A

Notes: My model points towards FIREFOOT who will have Zac Purton in the irons as he looks to continue his dominant start to the season. At a Morning Line of 8/1, I like our chances and will be keying this runner with some double-digit Morning Line entries to try and snag a big Quinella early.

Race 5 | 1200M | Class 4

Win - #12 GLORY CLOUD
Quinella – 12 w/ 4,8
Grade: B

Notes: GLORY CLOUD stands out at a nice 11/1 ML and is my model’s best bet for the race assuming that line holds even remotely close to the initial odds. HONEST WITNESS, at 7/2, is a logical choice to be favored at post time. However, and it’s a capital “H” in however, my model snuck in I P O BROS at 99/1 from the oddsmakers. If I’m going to swing, I might as well swing big. Let’s put one over the fence and get this one in the Quinella.

Race 6 | 1200M | Class 4

Win - #9 SUPER UNIVERSAL
Quinella – 9 w/ 4,8,10
Grade: C

Notes: Did I mention something about taking swings? My model likes SUPER UNIVERSAL at 53/1 on the Morning Line, and at the probabilities it produced we would have to crash those odds pretty hard to get anywhere close to negative expected value. He has only run twice, both at the same distance at Sha Tin, and both with tough trips. The pure numbers like his chance to improve after the offseason, and Vincent Ho has looked good to open the season riding four of his eight starts to a top-two finish.

Race 7 | 1000M | Class 3

Win - #11 JUSTIFYING
Quinella – 11 w/ 5,7
Grade: B

Notes: JUSTIFYING is, you guessed it, another son of champion JUSTIFY running in Hong Kong. After winning on debut, he bumped up to Class 3 and has been zero-for-three in the higher ranks. He picks up a strong mount as the Frenchman, Alexis Badel, gets the call and hopes to add to this 18-4-1-2 start to the season. FRIENDS OF SHAJING missed by just under two lengths in his debut after getting bumped early, and comes back with a two-pound handicap for his sophomore run. SPICY GOLD has looked the best of my choices in the Class 3 ranks, and should be in the mix in this Quinella.

Race 8 | 1650M | Class 2

Win - #8 JUMBO LEGEND
Quinella – 8 w/ 6,10
Grade: A

Notes: JUMBO LEGEND ended his last campaign with a win going nine furlongs at Happy Valley in this division. He comes back with Vincent Ho up, and appears to be facing a somewhat susceptible field. Leading rider, Zac Purton, will be aboard SOLEIL FIGHTER who drops in class, but has yet to find a win in the Class 2 ranks. LO RIDER is also looking to break back through, but the recent form just shows him getting close and never getting over the hump. I think my top pick looks like the most primed for this run, but just in case we get snagged by a tough trip we’ll play out a Quinella with some other well-priced contenders.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-17-2025, 06:24 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Presque Isle Downs Wednesday Spot Plays

September 16, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

It's Presque Isle Masters Week in Erie, PA and I'll take a few Betmix Angler trainer plays on Wednesday. Use the Angler at Betmix.com to create your own queries and handicapping scenarios to put real data behind your decisions.

Presque Isle Downs | Race 5 | 5:18 pm ET
#8 Double Up Larry (4-1 morning line odds) goes for trainer Randall Russell, who has 12 wins and 9 seconds from 36 starters at Presque Isle Downs over the past month. He's making all the right moves and turns from an apprentice jockey on this runner to a veteran jockey with whom he shares a strong 25% win rate. Win bet #8.

Presque Isle Downs | Race 7 | 6:12 pm ET
#4 Eastern Extension (4-1 morning line odds) took 11 tries to finally get over the hump and into the winner's circle, but can wheel right back and score again. Trainer Matthew Kintz's horses have been strong the past month at Presque Isle and note when following a victory, he's won 4 of his last 5 efforts with those same horses in their next starts. Win bet #4.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-17-2025, 06:25 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#1 The Big Con	Bit worried he's going to take a lot of cash based on the connections, but I'm hoping his steady works will have him ready to run along late in a race without any real proven finishing punch outside of the next one.
#3 Expo City	He ran on well enough in both of those first two tries, but he has already come up short in a couple of small fields at 3/2 and 3/5, so I think it's OK to go looking around a little bit, even if he's the most likely winner today.
#5 Sealand	Stretchout pace didn't hang around late last out, but the pedigree suggests this trip should be within his scope, and perhaps the softer route pace will allow him to stick around better.
Race Summary	The Big Con goes first time out in a race where there isn't a ton of serious form on paper, and I respect the team that brought him here -- maybe Expo City keeps the price fair?

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#1 King Reigert	I liked the winner of his last a little bit, and I like the quick turnaround and hike off the claim. Some appeal at what should be an OK price.
#2 Warrior's Mission	Nothing from him last time around, but the form prior to that was pretty solid, and he's right in the mix if he's able to get back to that kind of baseline here today.
#5 Shannonia	He handled the step out of the claiming ranks to this level last out with a good effort, and he should be in line for another good run of things while tracking the pace throughout.
Race Summary	King Reigert wheels back quickly on the hike for the new team, and I'm wondering if there is a bit of intention here while cutting back so soon.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#11 Cheerful Trout	She wasn't totally embarrassed when finishing last in that first start against winners, and I think she's an OK fit with this group while cutting the price tag. Move back around two turns gives her some room to move forward.
#12 Tartan Green	Relying on one of these two wide-drawn players to get the job done in this spot, as her two-back run here was pretty good and would stack up well with this group if she gets back to it today.
#5 Quite Continental	I don't know what to do here -- trust your gut. There is obviously back form that smokes this group if he even remotely approaches it, but he went to the bench off a no-show run and came back with the same. Now he shows up here at the bottom. Barn 2-for-7 with Saratoga-to-PID shippers the last couple years here.
Race Summary	Cheerful Trout and Tartan Green look solid enough to hope that one of the two of them lands this -- think that's an OK stand in the face of a horse like Quite Continental who brings a huge question mark to the finale at a likely underlaid price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-17-2025, 06:25 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #1

#4 MINK STOLE (6-1)	Recaptured best form at Ellis Park, steps up off the claim at her best distance.
#8 MISTY MUPPET (3-1)	Piled up the checks in Cali but hasn’t won since 2023, enters Diodoro barn.
#7 BROOKLYN DREW (5-2)	Has good first gear but she’s 0-for-6 at 6F and winless this year.
Race Summary	MINK STOLE steadied entering the turn, regrouped with a 4-wide run at the winner and finished second in her repeat attempt at the $16,000 level. She returns to Churchill in better form than when she left town and enters a high-percentage claim barn. Bet to win and place and play 4-7 and 4-8 exactas.

Churchill Downs - Race #3

#1 FEDERAL AGENT (3-1)	Troubled trip took its toll in first route attempt, moves outside in.
#4 COURT OF APPEAL (5-1)	Slow start in debut, adds blinks, barn good on several angles that apply.
#2 STOLEN POWER (10-1)	Gained 4-wide in debut sprint, bred to handle added ground.
Race Summary	FEDERAL AGENT broke poorly, got out slightly into the first turn, advanced 3- and 4-wide through the final turn and flattened out in the stretch. He was heavily bet in the MSW mile, now returns a month later for a claiming tag with Irad aboard from the rail. Bet to win and place and play a 1/ 2,4/ALL trifecta.

Churchill Downs - Race #4

#3 THE THUNDERER (15-1)	Can handle class rise and longer distance with move forward off latest.
#4 MASTER GAME (6-1)	Out-kicked top one at 7F, exits fast follow-up, but he’s 0-for-10 at Churchill.
#8 SALTWATER COWBOY (7-2)	Gets brave on a clear lead, which he could have despite 4-month layoff.
Race Summary	THE THUNDERER recaptured some of his proven form on the class drop last out. He loomed boldly while in-hand but was out-kicked by favorite MASTER GAME at 7F. Both runners finished around hard-hitting Enjoy It Straight (12-31, $236k), who made a last-to-first move in a $10,000 claimer next out. Both can handle the class hike at good odds. Bet on THE THUNDERER to win and place and play a 3-4-5-7 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-17-2025, 06:26 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs
PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race 6	Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta
Claiming $5,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $10,500 • Post: 6:25P
(INCLUDES UP TO $500 OTHER SOURCES) FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE MARCH 17, 2025. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 17, 2025 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 17, 2025 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (MULTIPLE WINNERS PREFERED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. LOUISIANA COWGIRL is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LOUISIANA COWGIRL: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Hor se racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	LOUISIANA COWGIRL	9/5	9/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
10	WHERE'S AUNT J	10	6/1	Front-runner	72	60	63.2	58.5	43.5
9	MISS KENNEDY	9	5/1	Front-runner	75	64	19.0	45.5	39.5
3	LOUISIANA COWGIRL	3	9/5	Alternator/Front-runner	84	83	81.9	72.1	65.6
4	ZIPPING MOLLY	4	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	77	68	41.4	68.0	61.0
6	PAT HAND GIRL	6	8/1	Trailer	79	56	39.9	60.4	50.9
2	BEULAH K	2	15/1	Trailer	68	67	33.6	59.8	49.3
7	MO DIXIE DIVA	7	20/1	Trailer	72	57	26.2	56.2	40.7
5	LITTLE Z	5	12/1	Trailer	68	68	25.8	55.6	41.1
8	UNIFIED LOVE	8	15/1	Trailer	73	63	25.2	64.2	56.2
1	GYPSYROSELEE	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	69	61.8	58.8	42.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-17-2025, 06:26 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Churchill Downs
PURCHASE

Churchill Downs - Race 6	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9) / Super Hi-5
Starter Allowance $50,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 102 • Purse: $83,000 • Post: 3:17P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS OR WHICH HAVE BROKEN THEIR MAIDEN IN A MAIDEN AUCTION RACE AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR WAIVER CLAIMING. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $40,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES)STARTER RACES FOR $40,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. MAJOR DAX is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * UNCLE WILLIAM: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. NORWICH: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. CURLIN'S GESTURE: Hor se's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. REMI'S MOON: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Hor se has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
1	UNCLE WILLIAM	5/2	4/1
3	NORWICH	7/2	5/1
7	CURLIN'S GESTURE	9/2	6/1
2	REMI'S MOON	4/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	NORWICH	3	7/2	Front-runner	95	96	81.5	74.9	70.9
1	UNCLE WILLIAM	1	5/2	Front-runner	99	102	72.2	84.4	79.4
7	CURLIN'S GESTURE	7	9/2	Stalker	99	95	80.6	83.4	78.9
4	MORAL	4	5/1	Stalker	82	87	45.5	65.4	54.4
2	REMI'S MOON	2	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	91	84	67.2	81.6	74.1
6	MAJOR DAX	6	10/1	Trailer	78	70	10.4	59.7	46.2
5	RAVENS DREAM	5	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	89	57.0	71.0	62.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-17-2025, 06:27 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #4 - Post: 8:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 64

Rating:

#3 PIGEON CAY (ML=5/1)
#2 MY ANGEL DOES (ML=3/1)
#11 CURLINA STAR (ML=6/1)

PIGEON CAY - Have to give this mare a good chance. Ran a strong effort in the last race within the last month. Notched a nice turf fig on September 3rd at Mountaineer Park. A repeat right here, and this one has a great shot to win. Ran last time out against much better company at Mountaineer Park. The move to a lower class level should suit her well. Lets try to beat the probable favorites with this mare. Just missed last out, but ran a respectable race. Ranks uppermost in earnings per race. A strong try in this race can augment that total. The recent fig of 67 is the best last race speed fig in the group. MY ANGEL DOES - I expect this beautiful animal to astonish some fans this time out. CURLINA STAR - In this race here, this racer has clearly shown signs that she likes the grass. Her Equibase speed figures are the highest in the field for this distance & surface. Was in a $12,500 Maiden Claiming race at Gulfstream Park last out. That race had a class number of 71 and she is moving down in this race. A certain serious competitor.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 TAKE OVER (ML=7/2), #1 TONI MARIE (ML=4/1), #12 I'LL TAKE PERFECT (ML=4/1),

TAKE OVER - Doesn't seem to be worth 7/2 today. Pass on her this time. TONI MARIE - Don't feel this mount will do much running in today's event. That last speed rating was most unsatisfactory when compared with today's class figure. I'LL TAKE PERFECT - 4/1 odds isn't enough for this one when looking at the most recent outings.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - PIGEON CAY - This steed has recorded gains in her speed figures over her last two events. Don't overlook this mare in your wagering.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 PIGEON CAY to win if we can get at least 4/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,11] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,3,11] with [2,3,11] with [2,3,6,8,11] with [2,3,6,8,11] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-17-2025, 06:27 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14400 Class Rating: 62

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES SINCE SEPTEMBER 17, 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE JULY 17 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 FIONA 7/2
# 3 CALENDULA 4/1
# 4 GRACIE DANCE 2/1

FIONA is the strongest bet in this race. She has been moving soundly lately while recording sharp Equibase Speed Figures. With a quite good 61 Equibase Speed Fig last time out, will surely be a factor in this contest. Reliable average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt route races make this horse a definite contender. CALENDULA - Gonzalez will most likely be able to get this mare to break out sharply for this event. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Gonzalez ought to have this mare in excellent position to win the race. GRACIE DANCE - Has been running well and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. Had one of the strongest speed figures of this group of animals in her last affair.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-17-2025, 06:27 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 81

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MARCH 17, 2025. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 LEONARD'S LEGACY 2/1
# 3 KEYSTONE HANK 3/1
# 1 BEAR CREEK 7/2

LEONARD'S LEGACY is the top bet in this race. Russell has him trained strongly to break swiftly out of the starting gate. Ought to be given a shot based on the strong speed fig garnered in the last competition. The average class figure of 74 makes this horse difficult to beat. KEYSTONE HANK - Could provide positive gains based on decent recent speed figures with an average of 74. Must be in sound condition if the handler is bringing him back so soon. BEAR CREEK - Has earned formidable speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past. Ran a strong last race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-17-2025, 06:27 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #4 - Post: 7:12pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $34,000 Class Rating: 65

Rating:

#1 RESEARCH TRIANGLE (ML=5/1)
#5 AMBESSA (ML=2/1)

RESEARCH TRIANGLE - Torres and McClellan getting together are a railbird's friend. Got some betting action in last (and only) race on Aug 23rd at Delaware Park, but finished fourth. Has a shot right here. Animal didn't end up on the board in last race, but did beat half the field, and made up ground in the lane. A slight improvement and this horse should be right there at the finish line. AMBESSA - A first timer with this conditioner. Kulp wins a 27 percent of the time in these here situations. This jock and handler are dependable together. Winning percent when teamed up is tough to one up. It's a big plus that this first timer has been working over the same track that she makes her debut at today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 PARAMETRIC (ML=9/5), #4 FORTUNATE MISSION (ML=3/1),

PARAMETRIC - Would have to get quite a bit more than the M/L odds of 9/5 to bet on this horse. FORTUNATE MISSION - Doesn't seem to be worth 3/1 this time out. Pass on her this time.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - RESEARCH TRIANGLE - This is an automatic bet for me. This filly is the top TM Power-rated thoroughbred and her rating towers over the rest.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #1 RESEARCH TRIANGLE to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Wednesday 9/17/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 9/17/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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