Sunday 9/21/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-20-2025, 12:34 PM

Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Sha Tin | September 21, 2025

September 19, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

Well, I’ve blanked the first few cards in Hong Kong, so it can only go up from here, right? Let’s hope so! I went back to the drawing board on my model to make sure it wasn’t relying too heavily on things that aren’t as predictable as other factors. After careful review, and a trimming down of factors, I’ve settled somewhere that is producing much better results when back tested and relies less on pace figures that are difficult to reproduce. Let’s hope I didn’t treat it like a bad fantasy football team after a bad start and tinker with it too much just yet.

Helpful Resources

Sha Tin – September 21

HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...se=ST&RaceNo=1

Race 1 | 1800M | Class 5
Win – #2 GOLDEN FAIRY
Quinella – 2 w/ 1,3,4
Grade: A

Notes: They say pace makes the race, right? Right! I believe my top choice is more than capable of going gate-to-wire from the inside post and pulling the upset to open the card. Two races back, this seven-year-old fired and led easily to a win at 2000 meters. The only other real pace concern is HAKKA RADIANCE who beat GOLDEN FAIRY to the first-call lead by a nose before they both faded. HAKKA RADIANCE and GOLDEN FAIRY both pick up new mounts here, with GOLDEN FAIRY getting Hewitson back up who rode him to victory two races back. HAKKA RADIANCE is going to have to fire from the eighth post and go around for a lead this time, and I’m planning on it being too much for him which should set up GOLDEN FAIRY with a smooth lead he can ride out for all nine furlongs.

Race 4 | 1650M | Class 4 (All-Weather)
Win – #1 CHARMING STEED
Exacta – 1,3 w/ 1,3,9
Grade: B

Notes: Finally, some good ol’ fashioned all-weather surface racing. CHARMING STEED has the best recent record on this surface of the field winning three of eleven starts and finishing in the money in six of them. PRECISION GOAL also boasts a strong all-weather surface record, but looks like he’ll end up on the lead here which has not too well for him. I think he’ll have some pressure in this race from a better contender, CHARMING STEED, and I like my top choice to eventually make a move and find the wire first. Alongside CHARMING STEED, ALLCASH is dropping to Class 4 and picking up Zac Purton. That’s a dangerous combination to add to his noteworthy speed figures of late. PRECISION GOAL is still a worthy contender, but I’ll play him in the second spot of my exacta and go for a big price to win.

Race 5 | 1600M | Class 4
Win - #11 SPECIAL HEDGE
Grade: A

Notes: My model points towards SPECIAL HEDGE to find his first win going a mile at a lovely Morning Line of 11/1. Fitting, no? Horses projected as highly as this one does win roughly 72% of their races in my model’s testing. It might be tough to parse out on paper, but I’m going to trust my numbers on this one and take a swing on a Win bet. This jockey has ridden him to his best two starts out of the last five, and hopefully this is the time he figures out the trip from the second post to cash us a ticket.

Race 7 | 1400M | Class 4
Quinella – 5 w/ 4,7
Grade: C

Notes: I’m taking a shot at a big price finding a way to finish in the top-two and pairing him with the two most logical contenders in the race. ALL ROUND WINNER has been nothing of the sort, going 0-for-6 to start his Hong Kong career, but I’m playing a mix of raw speed figures and pace setup hoping things fall apart on the lead and make way for a late burst of speed. Not to mention, this horse has now had six starts and an offseason in Hong Kong and hopefully has acclimated to his surroundings ahead of his season debut. If we can get some pressure near the lead, we have a good chance of ALL ROUND WINNER crashing the board close to the Morning Line of 54/1 and making our Quinella a standout in the Xpressbet account history.

Race 8 | 1650M | Class 3 (All-Weather)
Win - #3 ARIEL
Quinella Box – 1,3,6
Grade: A

Notes: Britney Wong has had a strong start to the season, and I’m banking on her continuing to find success in this Class 3 bout on the all-weather track. They have her gelding, ARIEL, tabbed at 21/1 on the Morning Line, but I think that’s a huge underestimation. This seven-year-old has won three of eight starts on the all-weather track, including two races back on a sealed wet course where he snagged the lead at the second call and rode on to win under Wong. Also in the category of likely misprices is TURIN MASCOT, a son of CARVAGGIO that may not have the best record on the surface, but has run against a tougher crop in his last five starts. I like ARIEL most in the field, and will play to win, but a pair of other Morning Line prices have my eye and I’m willing to lay a few bucks on some combination of them to find the wire ahead of the rest of the field.

Race 10 | 1200M | Class 3
Quinella – 2 w/ 1,3
Grade: A

Notes: Running back a strategy of price with two favorites in the Quinella, I like NEW FUTURE FOLKS cutting back in distance here and think he has a legitimate shot at pulling the upset. My hesitation with an outright win play is some potential early pace from HAYDAY or LO PAN SPIRIT who could both end up wearing down NEW FUTURE FOLKS. If Teetan can find a way to navigate the race’s setup, I am confident that my 26/1 Morning Line top choice can make some noise. STORM RIDER will be guided by the ever-talented Zac Purton in this class drop, and should be sitting off the pace by a couple lengths before a big push down the stretch. LUCKY MY WAY is 2-for-4 in his young Hong Kong career and is getting the call up to Class 3. There’s still much to be seen from this gelding against a tougher field, but if he looks anything like he did at the end of last season he could be a serious contender as well.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-21-2025, 08:25 AM

Scott Shapiro: Churchill Downs Spot Plays | Sunday, 9/21/25

September 21, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

After a Saturday of stakes action in Louisville, the second week of the September meeting at Churchill Downs concludes this afternoon with a 9-race card led by a pair of allowance events late in the day. Here are a trio of horses I like and will build my wagers around as part of what should be a fun Sunday at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.

Race 4

This MSW event for 2YOs at 1 1/16-miles over the Churchill lawn features a number of runners coming off starts at Kentucky Downs that make sense. This includes 7-2-ML favorite #2 Like Water for trainer Joe Sharp, 4-1-second choice #10 Very Connected for Kenny McPeek, and #5 Thesheriffisnear for Bill Mott. All have the experience edge over my play for big-name barns, but hopefully coming in fresh versus a run over the unique configuration in Franklin, KY proves valuable.

#3 Good Willie debuts for trainer Norm Casse and Small Batch Thoroughbreds. The Hard Spun colt is out of a Birdstone mare that has produced a pair of six-figure earners, including Hard Legacy, a filly that won two starts going long on the turf to kick off her career. Good Willie is not only a full-brother to Hard Legacy, but is conditioned by the same barn. He comes in off a steady series of drills over the main track and draws favorably along the inside. Hopefully, he runs a lot like his big brother at first asking!

Play: #3 Good Willie (8-1 ML)

Race 7

This high-level maiden claimer at the tricky 6.5-furlong distance over the main track kicks off the final Pick 3 of the weekend where I like the chances of #1 Arthur Jr. The son of Authentic has been knocking on the door this summer against protected maidens at Horseshoe Indianapolis, but has been unable to break through. This includes a pair of career best efforts in his two most recent starts. Last out, he got a great trip and ran a winning race, but ran into a good-looking first-time starter for the Larry Rivelli barn that went off at 6-5 and ran an 86 Beyer in victory. Arthur Jr returns to the Blue Grass, drops in for a tag for the first time, and attracts Luis Saez. Hopefully, Saez can get him to the front or work out a comfortable pocket trip in this gelding’s first start under the twin spires.

Play: #1 Arthur Jr (4-1 ML)

Race 8:

There is not a lot of speed signed on in the Sunday feature at 6-furlongs over the main track, which could make #5 Hillerito tough to catch. The Army Mule mare began her career with 3 wins in 4 starts in Ohio and West Viriginia for former trainer Eric Reed and is quick early. She moved into the David Jacobson barn before her last start at Ellis Park and proceeded to earn a career best figure on all metrics when taking advantage of a favorable inside trip on the front end. She will take some catching in her first start at Churchill Downs, but I think #3 Sam’s Treasure has a good shot to run her down. The Munnings filly made 9 starts in the Wesley Ward barn, including an off the pace win over this track on June 5. After her victory, the 4YO filly was sold at the FTK Horses of Racing Age sale for $270k to Corser Thoroughbreds and trainer Paulo Lobo. Lobo has given his new acquisition time and she comes in off a strong series of drills at the Thoroughbred Training Center. If she can build off of her last start, she has a big shot to run them down once again.

Play: #3 Sam’s Treasure (9-2 ML)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-21-2025, 08:26 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

September 21, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

Northfield Park has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EDT)

5-Alta Engen A (2-1)-This will be the 1st race for the Brian Tatham barn, and they are a smaller outfit that wins at a 38% clip off a claim. The 9-year-old only has raced at Nfld 12 times and comes off an even effort. Does have 3 wins and beat the $30k claimers here in July. Aaron Merriman gets the call, and he has 1 win in 2 drives for this trainer. Came back quickly in last, only 4 days between starts. Now returns in a typical rotation and should be out and rolling. Has a post edge on #6, the 9/5 choice and that could be the winning difference.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EDT)

1-Winter Soldier (5/2)-Came a close 2nd against this kind then dropped and wired the NW8000 from the 7-hole. Is in sharp form, and AMac will have the 4-year-old racing at the top of the stack.
2-Legacy Affair (3-1)-Has beaten this kind not long ago and will need to race to with the leaders to accomplish the same again. Justin Irvine should be no worse than in the pocket with this post draw and looks like a main player.
8-Kildare King (4-1)-The Chris Beaver entry has hit the board in of 8 of 11 at Nfld with 2 wins and can beat this kind. Tried to go gate to wire in last, was used hard early on and faded down the lane. Now starts further outside, so wouldn't want a short price. But will use, because can take some air and should be a fair price.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EDT)

3-Kate-N-Aidan (5/2)-There is a significant difference between NW2500 and NW1500. The 4-year-old now drops to the level where a picture could happen. Aaron Merriman takes the lines, and this will be "go" time.
9-Casino Director (12-1)-Looking for a price and landed on a veteran that almost pulled off an upset from the 2nd tier back in June. Lost by a neck that night at a big number. Stayed inside, got an efficient trip, and passed a few down the lane. Looking for similar trip and faces a softer field.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EDT)

1-Sizzling Sonata (6-1)-The 8-year-old is only 1 for 58 in the last 2 years but the lone win came 4 back at Nfld. Raced better in last to finish 3rd at 45-1. Won't be that large of a price but should offer a juicy return and will be closer to the top when the wings fold tonight.
4-Hey Dude (5/2)-Has two second place finishes on its Nfld resume and comes back in sequence. Doesn't work here often, raced well last week, and is in good form. Got the pocket but was behind a longshot who quit at the top of the lane and that made things more difficult. Could get a smoother trip this time.
6-South Bar Kevin (7/2)-Shipped in from Mea and had a good try from the 9-hole to cash a 4th place check. Draws better, Ronnie Wrenn sticks, and comes back in sequence. Should improve in the 2nd start on this oval.

$1 Late Pick 4

6/1,2,8/3,9/1,4,6
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-21-2025, 08:28 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Hawthorne - Race #1

#1 Abundance	Think the guy drawn outside of him is going to be tough, but his form has been heading in the right direction in recent starts, and he ran OK going long on the turf last out for the new team. Main danger.
#2 Anthony The Great	He's the one to beat after taking a big step forward in that second start when getting on the turf, but he'll now have to transfer that form back over to the main track where he was very dull in the debut. Figures better than that, but willing to take a shot against him here.
#3 Attersee	Debuter goes for a capable team in a pretty modest debut spot, but I'm a bit concerned about what kind of pace he might have in a small field without much speed. Check him out.
Race Summary	Abundance turns back with maybe just enough route pace to keep tabs on Anthony the Great in the early going, and I'll let that other guy prove his worth on the dirt today at a likely short number.

Hawthorne - Race #2

#3 Cash App Mike	The two turf routes on his page are the best tries on his page, so he might be an OK fit here today in a spot where there isn't a ton of serious proven turf route form. Logical alternative to this guy....
#7 Charley Pride	He can be tough here while getting back on the grass for the first time since a couple sprint tries in special weight company out west earlier in his career, and he has turned in a couple of OK dirt sprints in cheap company.
#6 Black Russian	He rarely gets close in the frame, but he has landed a handful of non-threatening underneath shares and may find himself in a similar spot today -- a small piece while not making a real impact.
Race Summary	Cash App Mike might be the right one to get past Charley Pride as that guy brings his form out of California for the first time. 'Mike has been solid in a couple of turf routes and may be playable as the second choice.

Hawthorne - Race #8

#8 American Cause	Forward player has some proving to do at this level, but he's got a versatile kind of pedigree that suggests he'll handle the turf just fine, so the new footing gives him at least a little room to move forward. Maybe enough to stay in the mix.
#9 Towering Storm	Plenty of respect for this one as he gets out of a stakes spot and an Ellis allowance run, and he ran pretty well behind a couple of OK winners here earlier this year. Looks like the logical one to beat -- I'm just not that enthused overall.
#7 Even the Wind	Reliable finisher always fires, and he's a good fit at this kind of level. Seems like one of the ones in a pretty fun race, but his stablemate 'Storm is already in the way.
Race Summary	American Cause has honest form on the main track that he'll try to transfer over to the turf, and sire Blame gives him enough turf influence to think he can play here if he likes the footing.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-21-2025, 08:31 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Prairie Meadows
PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race 11	Win / Place / Show / Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50 Min) Superfecta (.10 Min) / Jackpot Super Hi-5 (.20 Min)
Claiming $10,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 71 • Purse: $15,200 • Post: 8:17P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MARCH 21, 2025. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 21, 2025 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE MARCH 21, 2025 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ALLOWANCES). IOWA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. XCARET is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * XCARET: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MARINA'S GOLD: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GRAND PRAIRIE GAL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMas ter Power Rating. MY MAYBELENNE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
4	XCARET	7/2	3/1
7	MARINA'S GOLD	10/1	8/1
1	GRAND PRAIRIE GAL	4/1	8/1
3	MY MAYBELENNE	3/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	XCARET	4	7/2	Alternator/Front-runner	76	70	70.2	65.8	58.3
1	GRAND PRAIRIE GAL	1	4/1	Stalker	79	64	68.8	61.8	57.8
7	MARINA'S GOLD	7	10/1	Stalker	76	73	65.8	61.4	56.9
3	MY MAYBELENNE	3	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	72	69	67.3	62.6	55.1
2	MY FINE AQUILINE	2	5/1	Trailer	68	57	43.8	56.0	44.5
8	ESPRIT ROUGE	8	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	62	50	58.6	44.8	28.8
5	HARDLY MISCHIEVOUS	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	68	58.0	56.4	47.9
6	C'S LILLY DANCER	6	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	56	47.6	43.6	32.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-21-2025, 08:32 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race 3	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1.00 Bet 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Claiming $17,500 • 5 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $31,000 • Post: 1:52P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $17,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BLOND JAK: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a spr int and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. PLUM IRISH: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. WHITE CLAW WOMAN (IRE): Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Po wer Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CANDY BUZZ: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
4	BLOND JAK	5/1	5/1
2	PLUM IRISH	2/1	5/1
8	WHITE CLAW WOMAN (IRE)	8/5	7/1
3	CANDY BUZZ	20/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	CANDY BUZZ	3	20/1	Front-runner	71	75	93.8	61.0	53.5
7	MOTOWN OMI	7	6/1	Front-runner	69	61	65.4	54.0	45.0
4	BLOND JAK	4	5/1	Stalker	78	77	79.4	69.8	64.8
8	WHITE CLAW WOMAN (IRE)	8	8/5	Stalker	79	72	73.6	70.8	61.3
5	MISS SERAFINA	5	20/1	Stalker	60	53	41.6	47.2	33.7
2	PLUM IRISH	2	2/1	Trailer	77	76	74.8	71.6	69.1
1	IL SUO ORO	1	12/1	Trailer	70	68	53.2	61.2	50.7
6	LITTLE TOWN STREET	6	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	65	84.2	56.6	44.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-21-2025, 08:32 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Hawthorne - Race #6 - Post: 5:24pm - Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

#10 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK (ML=8/1)
#1 MAN ON ATTACK (ML=9/2)
#8 WICKED SUPRISE (ML=3/1)
#7 CANYON STREAK (ML=7/2)

WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK - DiZeo brings him back again. I advise you stick with this strong gelding. MAN ON ATTACK - The jockey/trainer duo of Tavares and Childers has a strong ROI together. Based on this gelding's recent efforts, he should benefit from this shorter trip. Have to like the way Childers has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. WICKED SUPRISE - Based on this gelding's recent efforts, he should benefit from today's shorter trip. In this race here, this campaigner has clearly shown signs that he likes the grass. His Equibase speed figures are the highest in the field for this distance and surface. Based on his last TrackMaster turf rating alone, I'm going to play this horse. CANYON STREAK - This gelding has plenty of ability on the turf. Could be long gone by the time they hit the eighth pole.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 HAWKS CREEK (ML=6/1), #5 DEL RAYO (ML=8/1),

HAWKS CREEK - I'd like to see more conducive recent outings with morning line odds of 6/1. DEL RAYO - Not easy to bet on this pony this time out. Make him show you something in a sprint event before you wager on him in a race of 7 1/2 furlongs. Last ran on Jul 8th at Horseshoe Indianapolis, finishing seventh. Not likely to advance off of that try in today's race. Should be difficult for this mount to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued equines list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #10 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK on the nose if you can get odds of 5/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-21-2025, 08:33 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sweetwater Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - SO - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 82

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2024 - 2025 OR CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 IRISH PRANCER 4/1
# 7 PRINCESS AMANDA 6/1
# 8 SKY SAILING 6/1

IRISH PRANCER is my choice. This equine has a very good winning percentage in dirt sprints. Ought to be carefully examined for this event if only for the very strong Equibase Speed Fig garnered in the last competition. With a solid 65 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's affair. PRINCESS AMANDA - Should definitely be given consideration in this contest if only for the very good Equibase Speed Figure posted in the last contest. SKY SAILING - Have to consider solely on class, with some of the best class figures of this group. Ran a solid last race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-21-2025, 08:33 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Allowance - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $13600 Class Rating: 85

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 PARTY TIME TOM 8/5
# 7 CUTESY 5/2
# 1 APOLLITICAL CROWN 3/1

My selection in this event is PARTY TIME TOM. Is a solid contender based on figures recorded lately under today's conditions. He has been racing soundly as of late while recording solid speed figs. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the most respectable class figs of this group of horses. CUTESY - Looks very good versus this group and should be one of the front-runners. Looks quite good for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid numbers in short races recently. APOLLITICAL CROWN - Can't overlook the connections here, a 21 winning percentage, one of the best at getting into the winner's circle.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-21-2025, 08:33 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Century Downs - Race #1 - Post: 4:45pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,500 Class Rating: 88

Rating:

#2 WEDGE POND (ML=3/1)
#1 ALL RUN (ML=5/2)

WEDGE POND - This gelding is in first-rate physical condition right now. Ended up third last time around the track and comes back quickly. Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone front-runner facing sluggish sorts today. I always like to see a horse getting Lasix for the first time. Brown adds it on this one today. This jockey fits well with this horse. The gelding and Hughes together win at a rate of 57 percent. ALL RUN - Always watch out for the longer priced equine when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. I like to wager on this angle, a pony coming back off a nice outing within the last month. This gelding's last rating notched on September 5th is in the top spot in last race Equibase speed figs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 DON'T LET ME DOWN (ML=2/1), #3 BARAK (ML=7/2),

DON'T LET ME DOWN - The morning-line favorite is vulnerable here with the lack of drills. Hard to take this entrant at the odds after the result (fifth) in the last affair. Pace makes the race and an absence of speed means this sustainer will have to rally without any help. BARAK - May bounce off of that last strong exertion.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 WEDGE POND is the play if we get odds of 9/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip