12-1-11

[Mr. IWS]

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Note:

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[Mr. IWS]

Today's NFL Picks

Philadelphia at Seattle

The Seahawks look to take advantage of a Philadelphia team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games against a team with a losing record. Seattle is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 1 Time Posted: 6:00 p.m. EST (11/29)

Game 301-302: Philadelphia at Seattle (8:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 131.149; Seattle 129.644 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 41 Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 44 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Under

[Mr. IWS]

NCAA Football Game Picks

West Virginia at South Florida

The Mountaineers look to take advantage of a USF team that is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 Thursday games. West Virginia is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Mountaineers favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-1). Here are all of this week's lined games.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 1 Time Posted: 10:00 p.m. EST (11/29)

Game 303-304: West Virginia at South Florida (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 93.065; South Florida 88.836 Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 4; 58 Vegas Line: West Virginia by 1; 55 Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-1); Over

[Mr. IWS]

WINNING POINTS

Philadelphia over *Seattle by 3 (Thursday)
PHILADELPHIA 24-21


West Virginia over South Florida* by 6 (Thursday)
WEST VIRGINIA 27-21

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS REPORTER

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 1
PHILADELPHIA over *SEATTLE by 4
PHILADELPHIA, 20-16


WEST VIRGINIA over *SOUTH FLORIDA by 4
WEST VIRGINIA, 31-27

[Mr. IWS]

PLAYBOOK MARK LAWRENCE

Thursday, December 1
USF over West Virginia by 1


Thursday, December 1
Philadelphia over SEATTLE by 7

[Mr. IWS]

Priority Sports Info
3-0 yesterday in hoops
0-1 monday in hoops
1-1 tuesday in hoops

NFL [301] Philadelphia -3 Rated: ***


CFB [303] West Va. -1.5 Rated: ***


CBB [556} Wisconsin Milwaukee -9.5 Rated: ***
CBB [562} DePaul Pk Rated: ***

[Mr. IWS]

NHL NEWS AND NOTES
Preview: Pittsburgh at Washington

Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals (-110, 5.5)

THE STORY: Games between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Washington Capitals always seem to have multiple storylines, and Thursday's tilt in the U.S. capital is no exception. The Penguins carry the best record in the Eastern Conference into the marquee showdown, and have been rolling along since getting Sidney Crosby back from a 10 1/2-month absence. The former league MVP has 10 points in five games and has looked as dangerous as ever on the offensive end. Pittsburgh is 3-1-1 with Crosby in the lineup, though it fell 4-3 to the New York Rangers in its last game Tuesday night. The Capitals enter their second game with new coach Dale Hunter behind the bench. Hunter, who replaced Bruce Boudreau earlier in the week, dropped a 2-1 decision to the St. Louis Blues in his NHL debut. This is the second meeting of the season between the Penguins and Capitals, with Washington prevailing 3-2 in overtime in their first encounter on Oct. 13.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, NHL Network, Root, Comcast SportsNet Maryland

ABOUT THE PENGUINS (14-7-4): It was a collision with Washington's David Steckel at last season's Winter Classic on New Year's Day that first rocked Crosby. One game later, he was on the shelf for the rest of the season and the first month-and-a-half of the 2011-12 campaign. He has reported no problems since returning to action, which could spell trouble for a Capitals team that ranks in the bottom half of the Eastern Conference in goals allowed so far.

ABOUT THE CAPITALS (12-10-1): There was some concern about forward Alex Ovechkin's ice time in his first game under Hunter. Ovechkin played 16 minutes, 46 seconds - his second-lowest total of the season. A closer look, however, revealed that the struggling superstar played 16:26 of even-strength time - his second-highest total in that situation all season. He saw only 20 seconds of power-play action, with Washington getting just one man advantage all night.

OVERTIME:

1. Pittsburgh brings out the best in Ovechkin, who has 33 points (19 goals, 14 assists) in 25 career games against the rival Penguins.

2. Crosby has had his own good fortune against Washington, scoring 35 points (13 goals, 22 assists) in 21 career encounters.

3. Washington has won four straight meetings and eight of the last nine.

PREDICTION: Penguins 5, Capitals 4.

[Mr. IWS]

ICE PICKS

Thursday’s Best NHL Bets

Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals (-110, 5.5)

If this date with the Penguins can’t wake up the Caps, their newly-named coach Dale Hunter might as well pack it in already.

Washington has just two wins in its last nine overall, but the Capitals did escape with a 3-2 win over Pittsburgh in the first meeting between the two teams.

That game also featured one of the ugliest knockouts you’ll ever see when Pittsburgh’s Arron Asham destroyed Jay Beagle in a third-period tussle. Beagle hasn’t played since and is still suffering from post-concussion symptoms.

Speaking of which, if you haven’t heard, this will be the first game in which the Capitals will face Sidney Crosby since David Steckel smoked him in last season’s Winter Classic. Steckel has since moved on to Toronto, but you can bet there will be some ill will between the two clubs.

The Penguins came up short in a 4-3 loss to the Rangers at MSG on Tuesday, but they played very well apart from a tough span in the second period. The boys will be out to win this one for The Kid.

PICK: Penguins


Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars (-125, 5.5)

So far, both the Ottawa Senators and the Dallas Stars have exceeded expectations.

Ottawa has won five of its last seven and are holding down the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference. There are a lot of good things happening with the Sens – Paul MacLean has instilled some accountability from behind the bench and a number of the team’s young talents are immerging.

“I was a little bit happy and unhappy with my team tonight, but at the end of the night, we found a way to win the game,” MacLean told reporters after a 6-4 win over Winnipeg. “We showed some resilence and we worked real hard."

But you have to wonder how long they can keep this up when they’re allowing a league-worst 3.4 goals per game.

Dallas is going through a similar situation. No. 1 goaltender Kari Lehtonen carried this club early this season, but now he’s out with a groin injury, leaving Andrew Raycroft to hold the fort. He made 35 saves in a 3-1 win over Colorado Monday, but they need to tighten up in their own zone.

The Stars are giving up 32.8 shots per game, worst in the show.

PICK: Over 5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday Night Football: Eagles at Seahawks

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (+3, 43.5)

THE STORY: Some dream, eh? The self-labeled "Dream Team" – otherwise known as the Philadelphia Eagles – will travel to the Pacific Northwest to continue their nightmare of a season on Thursday against the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. Despite widely different expectations after last season's playoff appearances, both clubs enter Thursday's prime-time contest with identical – and disappointing – 4-7 marks. After dropping three of its last four games, Philadelphia's rail-thin postseason hopes rest on running the table and receiving a riverboat gambler's share of luck in the process. To add injury to insult, QB Michael Vick (ribs) and WR Jeremy Maclin (shoulder, hamstring) are likely to miss their respective third straight games on Thursday. For its part, Seattle saw its modest two-game winning streak come to an end with a 23-17 home loss to the Washington Redskins.

TV: NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET.

LINE: The Eagles opened as field-goal favorites and the line has remained stable. The total opened at 44 and has dropped to 43.5.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (4-7, 4-7 ATS): Vince Young is credited/blamed for bestowing the team with an unneeded nickname in the preseason and saddling it with even loftier expectations. Young started his second straight game in place of Vick and threw for 400 yards in Philadelphia's lopsided 38-20 loss to the New England Patriots. LeSean McCoy, who is the league's leading rusher with 1,050 yards, received just 10 carries last weekend. McCoy will likely see a larger workload against the Seahawks, who do boast the league's 11th-ranked rush defense despite surrendering 108 yards to Roy Helu on Sunday.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (4-7, 6-4-1 ATS): QB Tarvaris Jackson isn't lighting up the scoreboard, having averaged just 182.5 yards in his last four contests. During that stretch, Jackson has three touchdowns and six interceptions. He'll likely be without WR Sidney Rice, who suffered his second concussion of the season on Sunday. RB Marshawn Lynch rushed 24 times for 111 yards on Sunday, but Seattle was unable to grind out the clock and watched a 10-point lead evaporate in a loss to the Redskins.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Eagles are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
* Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. NFC.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Disgruntled Eagles WR DeSean Jackson was benched in the fourth quarter on Sunday after dropping three passes. Despite his season-long troubles, the two-time Pro Bowler will start on Thursday.

2. Seattle is ranked second in the NFL in total penalties (105). The Seahawks committed just 101 penalties all of last season.

3. Prized offseason acquisition CB Nnamdi Asomugha (hyperextended knee) is also a game-time decision for the ailing Eagles.

PREDICTION: Eagles 20, Seahawks 17. A short week away from its rabid fan base may actually serve Philadelphia well. McCoy will do just enough against a Seattle club which ups its intensity when playing in the Emerald City.

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday's Best NFL Bet

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (+3, 43.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles will look to salvage a win in what is left of a lost season when they travel west to take-on the Seattle Seahawks in front of a Thursday night prime-time audience at the CenturyLink Field. Game time is set for 8:20 (p.m.) and it will be broadcast nationally on the NFL Network.

What little hope of resurrecting a season that was dead from the start ended this past Sunday when Philadelphia was trounced by New England 38-20 as a three-point underdog in front its home-town crowd. The lopsided loss dropped the Eagles to 4-7 straight-up on the year (4-7 against the spread) and three full games behind Dallas in the NFC East. The total went ‘over’ the 50.5-point line against the Patriots and is now 6-5 on the year.

The big question for Philadelphia for Thursday’s game is the availability of Michael Vick. He has missed the last two games with a rib injury and is currently listed as day-to-day. If he can manage to start, it may provide a spark to a team that looked woefully outmatched this past Sunday with Vince Young at the helm.

Seattle let a win of its own slip away this past Sunday in a 23-17 loss to Washington as a three point home favorite. The loss dropped it to 4-7 SU (6-4-1 ATS) and a distant five games behind San Francisco in the NFC West with just five games left to play. The total went ‘over’ the 37.5-point line against the Redskins to go 6-5 overall this year.

The Seahawks come into this game with an offense that has struggled to consistently move the ball as well as put points on the board. They are ranked 30th in the NFL in total yards per game and 26th in scoring with an average of 16.8 points a game. The one bright spot, until Sunday’s fourth-quarter meltdown against Washington, was a defense that was giving-up 21.1 points a game and ranked 11th against the run.

The Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and just 4-10 SU in their last 14. The total has gone ‘over’ in eight of their last 11 road games.

The Seahawks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games overall and the total has gone ‘over’ in five of their last six games at home.

Philadelphia has won four of its last five games played in Seattle SU and is 4-2 ATS in the last six played there. The total has gone ‘over’ in three of the last four meetings overall.

POINT SPREAD PICK

Having Vick back for Thursday night would certainly help the Eagles on the road, but this team is already playing like it is riding out the string, especially on defense. Stick with Seattle to cover as underdogs at home with the straight-up win.

PICK: Seahawks +3

[Mr. IWS]

West Virginia at South Florida: What Bettors Need To Know

West Virginia Mountaineers at South Florida Bulls (+1.5, 55)

THE STORY: No. 22 West Virginia needs help to qualify for a BCS Bowl game, but the Mountaineers can’t reach that goal or gain a share of the Big East title without a win at South Florida Thursday. The Mountaineers have been victorious three of their last four to give themselves a chance. If West Virginia wins and Cincinnati beats Connecticut, the Mountaineers would forge a three-way with Louisville and Cincinnati. The Mountaineers, who have lost their last two at USF, would have a highest-ranked team in the BCS and gain the bid – most likely to the Orange Bowl. South Florida looked like it would be in the running for that early after winning its first four games, but the Bulls will need a win over West Virginia to become bowl eligible.

TV: ESPN

LINE: South Florida opened as a 1.5-point favorite, however, action on WVU flipped the odds to have the Mountaineers as 1.5-point road chalk.

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (8-3, 4-2 Big East, 5-6 ATS): The Mountaineers would lose out on a BCS bid, due to its 38-35 loss to Louisville, if Cincinnati does not beat UConn. But West Virginia has to focus on the job ahead with quarterback Geno Smith at the helm of its high-powered passing offense. Smith broke single-season school records in yards (3,741), completions and pass attempts in the 21-20 victory over Pittsburgh Friday. Wide receiver Stedman Bailey also broke the single-season school record for yards with 1,117 and Tavon Austin went over 1,000 yards.

ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (5-6, 1-5 Big East, 4-7 ATS): Quarterback B.J. Daniels, averaging almost 300 yards of total offense, is still questionable with a sore throwing shoulder but has been feeling better. If Daniels can’t go, Bobby Eveld will get another start. Eveld, a sophomore, was 20-for-35 with 210 yards in the loss to Louisville Friday with a touchdown pass and an interception. The Bulls’ top receiver Sterling Griffin could return from an ankle injury after missing four games. USF will need more than the 64 yards rushing it had last week. The Bulls have lost its last five games by a total of 25 points.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. USF is second in the nation in sacks and tackles for losses per game.

2. Austin is second in the nation in all-purpose yards.

3. USF has not missed playing a bowl game since 2004.

PREDICTION: West Virginia 31, South Florida 20 – If the Mountaineers can control the pass rush, they should control the game.

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Thursday's Best NCAA CBB Bet

West Virginia Mountaineers at South Florida Bulls (+1.5, 55)

West Virginia went through a brief period of under-performance in late October and early November, but they have bounced back with consecutive narrow victories over Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the last two weeks. South Florida started the season with a big win at Notre Dame, and they went on to start out 4-0. It has been all downhill since then for the Bulls. South Florida has lost six of their last seven games. Can the Bulls get it back together and get back to .500?

Dana Holgorsen has brought a lot of changes to the West Virginia Mountaineers team. Under Bill Stewart the Mountaineers offense never really got on track, but this year West Virginia has the best offense in the Big East. Geno Smith has bought into the new system, and he is having a massive breakout season at quarterback. Smith has thrown 25 touchdowns and just five interceptions this season. Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin both have over 1,000 receiving yards this year. Eight players on this squad have at least ten catches, so Smith has plenty of targets on the outside. The Mountaineers are averaging 35 points per contest.

Most expected the Mountaineers defense to take a step back this year, and they certainly have. This unit ranked in the top ten in the country last year, but they rank 25th in total defense and 59th in points allowed per game in 2011. This is a young defense that has struggled against solid running games this year.

South Florida looked like it was ready for a big season after the first few weeks of the year, but things have completely fallen apart for Skip Holtz and this team. The offense was brilliant at the beginning of the season, but they have been held to 17 points or less in four of their last seven games. B.J. Daniels has improved at the quarterback spot this year, but he is dinged up right now. Daniels missed last week’s game, and he is listed as questionable for this one. If Daniels misses this game, the team will rely even more on the running game.

The Bulls defense has been a disappointment this year. Last season this unit was one of the best in the country. The front seven has been very good this year against the run, but the secondary has been terrible against the pass. This is certainly a cause for concern for the defensive coaches at South Florida because West Virginia is so good at spreading the field and airing it out. The Bulls must find a way to pressure Smith or it will be a long day for this defense.

West Virginia has more at stake in this game, and I think they have fewer question marks right now. Look for the Mountaineers to win this game and be in position to get the Big East’s BCS berth.

PICK: West Virginia/South Florida UNDER 50.5

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday’s Betting Tips: Bettors Back Eagles Despite ATS Skid

WHO'S HOT

NFL: Seattle is 6-2-1 against the number in its last nine overall.

NCAAF: The over is 8-2 in West Virginia’s last 10 overall.

NCAAB: Georgetown has covered the number in four straight.

NCAAB: The under is 8-2-1 in Kentucky’s last 11.

NHL: The New York Rangers are 10-2 in their last 12.

NHL: Phoenix is 13-1-1 in its last 15 against Winnipeg/Atlanta.

WHO'S NOT

NFL: Philadelphia is 3-10 against the spread in its last 13 as a favorite.

NCAAF: South Florida is riding a 1-7 slump against the spread.

NCAAB: St. John’s is 2-6 against the spread in its last eight.

NCAAB: Alabama is 1-5 against the spread in its last six vs. the Big East.

NHL: Washington is 2-7 in its last nine.

NHL: Columbus is 13-38 in its last 51 overall.

KEY STAT

30 – The No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats are 6-0 straight up and have won their games by an average of 30 points so far this season. However, the Wildcats are just 3-2 against the spread. They host St. John’s as 23-point favorites Thursday evening.

INJURY THAT SHOULDN'T BE OVERLOOKED

Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants - Bradshaw expressed optimism that he will return to the lineup this weekend. Bradshaw, who has sat out four straight games with a broken bone in his foot, said there is a "big shot" he will play in Sunday's game against the undefeated Green Bay Packers. New York's running game has struggled in the absence of Bradshaw, who has 111 carries for 440 yards and five touchdowns this season. He rushed for 1,235 yards and eight touchdowns last season.

GAME OF THE DAY

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (3, 43)

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“You can take the rest of the games, and you can delete them. ... What this team is going to be remembered for is what happens (Thursday night). ... We’re playing a very good team. Their record doesn’t reflect what kind of a team they are, how well-coached they are, or what kind of players they have.” – West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen about Thursday’s matchup with South Florida. Oddsmakers have the Mountaineers set as 2-point favorites.

TIPS AND NOTES

The Philadelphia Eagles have dropped seven of their last 10 against the spread, but bettors are jumping all over them in Thursday’s matchup against the Seahawks in Seattle. As of Wednesday evening, more than 66 percent of Covers.com Consensus bettors were backing Philadelphia, which was set as a 3-point favorite.

Pittsburgh Penguins defensemen Kris Letang and Zbynek Michalek will sit out Thursday's game against Washington. Both players are dealing with concussion-like symptoms. Letang suffered a broken nose Saturday on a hit by Montreal's Max Pacrioretty, who drew a three-game suspension for the blow. He practiced Monday and Tuesday but was experiencing trouble breathing. He also is suffering from a virus. Michalek also sat out Tuesday's game after taking a blow to the head in Saturday's game against Montreal. He has been bothered by headaches but was not diagnosed with a concussion.

The Kansas City Chiefs had incumbent starter Tyler Palko and newcomer Kyle Orton split quarterback reps at practice on Wednesday. Palko was expected to see 60 percent of the first-team reps, while Orton - who was claimed off waivers from the Denver Broncos last week - would be given 40 percent. Chiefs head coach Todd Haley hasn't named a starter for Sunday's game against the Chicago Bears. Palko took over the starting role after Matt Cassel went down with a season-ending injury. The 28-year-old has thrown for 444 yards with zero touchdowns and six interceptions in two games. Kansas City is currently pegged as a 7-point underdog.

[Mr. IWS]

DCI CFB

Season
Straight Up: 985-347 (.739)
ATS: 371-373 (.499)
ATS Vary Units: 1998-1983 (.502)
Over/Under: 353-387 (.477)
Over/Under Vary Units: 887-978 (.476)

Thursday, December 1, 2011
Big East Conference
West Virginia 29, SOUTH FLORIDA 21