Wednesday 9/24/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeremy Plonk: Churchill Downs Spot Plays | Wednesday, 9/24/25

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September 24, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

Let's get the racing week in Kentucky off to a fast start. Here are my best bets on the Wednesday card at Churchill Downs.


Churchill Downs | Race 3 | 1:43 pm ET

#5 Sweet Note (9-2 morning line odds) has the best victory on the resume of any of these non-winners of 2 lifetime contenders and she rounded back into form nicely last time out with a runner-up bid at Ellis Park. Past Churchill Downs form is good and note the little-ballyhooed Donald Habeeb barn is 6-for-10 in the exacta (2 wins) since mid-June at average odds of nearly 12-1. Win bet #5.


Churchill Downs | Race 8 | 4:19 pm ET

#5 Caribbean Wind (7-2 morning line odds) is beautifully drawn in this full-field turf sprint. Trainer Wesley Ward is a maestro in Kentucky turf dashes (27% wins, 7% flat-bet profit since 2021). This filly comes in fresh and firing bullet workouts in the morning. Should be forward throughout and tough to outrun. Win bet #5.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#4 Smart Philly	Bit worried that the price will get short here after the big run last out at 20/1, but I liked the way she moved forward in that first route try, and something similar would likely do today.
#1 Missus Seki	She showed just a tiny bit of enthusiasm late in the debut try at Colonial, and she steps into this special weight spot while getting around two turns with a pedigree that suggests the added ground will help.
#3 Caparbia	She's got several lengths to turn on the top choice, but she has a pace edge on that one and could still have a bit of upside. Not sold.
Race Summary	Smart Philly can hit hard here, as something like her last would probably land this one, and I'm hoping to get Missus Seki in the picture at an OK price while stretching out today.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#1 Crooked Dreams	Not going to be any kind of number on the board as he drops off the decent run for more than three times this tag, and he has been a very snug fit at this kind of price in the past. The right one if he can work out the forward trip from the fence.
#7 Yardman	Cutback player has a couple of OK sprint tries on his page, so I wonder if he might be able to punch home with a little bit of energy while turning back at an OK price.
#5 Moncrief	Think his better stuff stacks up OK with this crew, and he should be quick enough to keep tabs on the rail runner in the early going. Enough to like if the price is right.
Race Summary	Crooked Dreams should be a handful in here with a good, forward trip waiting for him while returning to a claiming price at which he has been tough to beat in the past.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#4 Hundred Proof	The recent tries on his page are mostly even runs, but he wasn't embarrassed last out for twice this price, and it wouldn't be a shock to see him handle these at what might be a midrange price.
#3 Grand Morning	Not sure the risk/reward proposition is going to be there today for this guy, but he ran a good one last time out in a race I liked a little bit for the level. In the mix if he holds form off something like a career best.
#1 Stand Up Charlie	Think the price might be OK here with some very mildly improving form. Wonder if the new footing could wake him up a little bit, but so far the Java's Wars have struggled pretty mightily on synthetic surfaces. Think the form is kind of appealing at an OK number.
Race Summary	Hundred Proof ran on OK in his local debut last time out, and this softer spot may be enough to get him home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Penn National - Race #2

#2 MUMMALICIOUS (6-1)	Good effort in first turf route attempt, form dotted with follow-up winners.
#5 DRIFTING (3-1)	Good first gear, bullet :47-1/5 work for 14 percent new-acquisition barn.
#6 SACRED LOVE (7-2)	Beattie first-time starters always draw betting attention and often fire.
Race Summary	MUMMALICIOUS dueled to the stretch going a route of ground and held third at this level. She returns to a sprint but must avoid troubled starts that plagued her in four of her five previous five starts. Bet to win and place and play a 2-5-6 exacta box.

Penn National - Race #3

#8 BOCA ROYALTY (6-1)	Pressed odds-on fave, took over on turn in long sprint victory.
#7 SHE’SAROLLINGSTONE (5	Solid numbers, shortens up, takes class plunge after voided vet claim.
#1 TILTED TIARA (6-1)	Went wire-to-wire in prior two 6F starts under these conditions.
Race Summary	BOCA ROYALTY out-dueled the 2-to-5 en route to a 17-1 upset at 7F. She has plenty of back-class and is well-spotted to repeat at a distance which she has earned more than half of her $257k bankroll. Bet to win and place and play an 8/1, 6, 7, 9/1, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10 trifecta.

Penn National - Race #4

#4 UNCLE MONEY (4-1)	Has done the least wrong, alert start with blinks could yield .500 win percent.
#3 GREAT KISSER (3-1)	Transitioning grass sprinter could get loose on the lead on the class drop.
#1 THICK AND JUICY (7-2)	Mowed down the odds-on favorite at 5-1/2F, barn on 7-for-24 ‘repeat’ run.
Race Summary	UNCLE MONEY won his first two starts, dueled to the stretch when third for $16k and had excuses in two recent short sprints. He wears blinkers for the first time and his rivals are a combined 11-for-141. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3-4 exacta box.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown
PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 8	$1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.20 Superfecta / $.20 Buckeye 5
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $40,100 • Post: 4:20P
FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 24 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 24 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * MIESHA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. LARRY'S ANGEL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DERBY DAY KISS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. TOASTMASTER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. COLORYOUREGGS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse' s third or fourth start after a layoff.
3	MIESHA	3/1	4/1
5	LARRY'S ANGEL	2/1	7/1
7	DERBY DAY KISS	8/1	8/1
2	TOASTMASTER	6/1	8/1
4	COLORYOUREGGS	5/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	COLORYOUREGGS	4	5/1	Front-runner	69	65	75.2	62.0	52.5
5	LARRY'S ANGEL	5	2/1	Front-runner	71	66	68.6	69.4	64.4
1	FLAME FOR REAL	1	15/1	Front-runner	70	63	46.2	42.8	32.3
2	TOASTMASTER	2	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	79	73	68.2	65.2	57.2
7	DERBY DAY KISS	7	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	75	72	61.0	63.4	53.9
6	SHE'S WILLIE FAST	6	4/1	Stalker	69	66	46.4	55.8	47.3
3	MIESHA	3	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	77	75	70.6	70.0	65.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Albuquerque
PURCHASE

Albuquerque - Race 9	Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / Last Leg Pick 4 Second Half Late Daily Double
Claiming $6,250 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 90 • Purse: $12,400 • Post: 9:25P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE MARCH 24, 2025 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 24 ALLOWED 3 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE MARCH 24 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250. NEW MEXICO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. JUVAL is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * LUCK IN MY EYES: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SHUT UP MICHAEL (IRE): Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. LAST MARTINI: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Fi gure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SEAHAWK CODY: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Horse's average winning distance is within half a f urlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
4	LUCK IN MY EYES	20/1	7/2
1	SHUT UP MICHAEL (IRE)	9/2	7/1
5	LAST MARTINI	6/1	8/1
3	SEAHAWK CODY	4/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SHUT UP MICHAEL (IRE)	1	9/2	Front-runner	92	84	96.1	58.1	52.1
10	CLUE	10	15/1	Front-runner	86	76	66.6	66.6	53.6
3	SEAHAWK CODY	3	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	92	71	71.8	79.2	68.2
7	JUVAL	7	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	80	73	63.0	73.7	54.7
5	LAST MARTINI	5	6/1	Trailer	89	83	43.8	76.0	66.0
11	GRIFTER	11	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	81	72	75.7	73.0	56.5
4	LUCK IN MY EYES	4	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	92	91	62.7	83.0	78.5
6	SANGER	6	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	95	89	92.6	72.6	70.1
2	DIXON TUFF	2	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	90	85	86.7	61.1	46.1
8	OTTOMAN EMPIRE	8	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	74	64.2	64.2	47.2
9	COMING ABSTRACTION	9	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	80	46.4	70.0	55.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Parx Racing - Race #7 - Post: 3:26pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating:

#5 ATROCIOUS (ML=9/2)
#1 SOLE LUTE (ML=3/1)
#6 TRULLI WARRIOR (ML=7/2)
#3 CHOWSER (ML=4/1)


ATROCIOUS - Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end. SOLE LUTE - This horse could be tough today, especially since Pennington rode in the last race and now should be familiar with this one. This colt is in nice condition. Ran second on Sep 3rd. This horse collects a lot of cash per race. I believe he can increase the lifetime earnings right here. This colt's last speed fig is high enough to win here, I'll bet on him right back today. TRULLI WARRIOR - Gelding had the second fastest workout of the day prepping for this. CHOWSER - Jock jumped on this gelding's back for the first ride on August 29th. Should be in tune with the equine even better today. Lopez and Duarte partnered up are a horse gambler's friend. Duarte is hoping to get a little more out of this gelding by adding blinkers today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 DARK DEVIL (ML=4/1),

DARK DEVIL - I can't play this habitual non-winner. Gets the assignment completed now and then. A pattern of decreasing Equibase speed figs 84/79/64 for this runner.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 ATROCIOUS is going to be the play if we are getting 5/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Handicap - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $55000 Class Rating: 90

FOR INDIANA BRED FILLIES & MARES THREE YEARS OLD & UPWARD. NO NOMINATION FEE, PURSE $55,000. SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATIONS MAY BE MADE BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING OF ENTRIES FOR A FEE $100. AFTER PAYING 1% TO OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST, THE REMAINING PURSE WILL BE DIVIDED, 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 11% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH AND 3% TO FIFTH. CLOSED

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 IMAGINE THE MOON 8/5
# 3 DON'T MISS OUT 5/1
# 5 HOT MIDDLES 4/1

I think IMAGINE THE MOON is a respectable choice. Could provide positive profits based on solid recent Equibase Speed Figs with an average of 81. The speed figure of 84 from her latest contest looks very strong in here. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of animals - worth a look. DON'T MISS OUT - Will most likely compete strongly in the pace contest which bodes well with this group. The speed rating of 99 from her latest contest looks strong in here. HOT MIDDLES - Posted a reliable speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this contest. Has run solidly when running a dirt sprint race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Churchill Downs - Race #1 - Post: 12:45pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $62,000 Class Rating: 95

Rating:

#1 HONEST AL (ML=5/1)
#6 PUTTING EAGLE (ML=15/1)


HONEST AL - This thoroughbred should be thundering down the stretch. PUTTING EAGLE - Von Hemel has this colt signed up for the ideal race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 LAMBO (ML=7/5), #3 BOB'S CARROT (ML=3/1), #2 SCOTTISH STORM (ML=4/1),

LAMBO - Didn't come through as the favorite in back to back races. Probably won't gain a score today either. Can't really back the favorite when he has multiple failures as the public's choice. BOB'S CARROT - Can't wager on this racer in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance event recently. Tough to like the downward flow (84/78/57) of speed ratings. SCOTTISH STORM - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance events recently. Unlikely to see him doing it this time around either. Registered a mediocre fig last time out in a Maiden Special race on Aug 20th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 HONEST AL to win at post-time odds of 8/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Optional Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $26000 Class Rating: 92

FOR FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE STATE BRED RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 24 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR LESS

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 ZEEBEAR 2/1
# 3 RHYMES LIKE DIMES 7/2
# 2 D'ONT LOSE CRUZ 4/1

I think ZEEBEAR is a very strong choice. Going in a dirt route race gives this gelding a competitive shot. Looks solid versus this group of horses in this race and will almost certainly be one of the early speedsters. Should be carefully examined - I like the numbers from the last race. RHYMES LIKE DIMES - Tough to pass on this gelding with Worrie in the irons. Has run solidly when running a dirt route race. D'ONT LOSE CRUZ - The tandem of Perez/Buckley has one of the best return on investment percentages in this field. Ought to go to the lead and may never look back.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - September 24

Sep. 23, 2025

Race #1
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 12:45 PM ET
$62,000.00

Race 1 Claiming

Win	7-5	7	Lambo	E Morales
Place	3-1	3	Bobs Carrot	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	5-1	1	Honest Al	B J Hernandez Jr.
Wild card	4-1	2	Scottish Storm	L Saez
Alternate 1	10-1	5	Master Mule	L Machado
Alternate 2	15-1	6	Putting Eagle	J Rocco Jr.

Exacta 7-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/7 BOX, 1/2/3 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:14 PM ET
$57,000.00

Race 2 Maiden Claiming

Win	5-1	3	Synoptic	L Saez
Place	9-2	11	Wanna Go Home	A Beschizza
Show	5-1	2	Mattys Baby	T Gaffalione
Wild card	4-1	9	Nonstop Vino	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 1	6-1	5	Authentic Charm	E Morales
Alternate 2	12-1	12	Bistineau Beauty	F Geroux

Exacta 3-11 BOX, 11-2 BOX, 2-9 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/11 BOX, 2/9/11 BOX
Race #3
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:43 PM ET
$62,000.00

Race 3 Claiming

Win	9-2	5	Sweet Note	E Morales
Place	8-1	1	Miss Tifeye	G Saez
Show	4-1	6	Going Streakin	L Saez
Wild card	7-2	8	In Awe of Juju	B J Hernandez Jr.
Alternate 1	3-1	2	I Am Beautiful	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	10-1	7	Miss Makenna	M Gutierrez

Exacta 5-1 BOX, 1-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
Trifecta 1/5/6 BOX, 1/6/8 BOX
Race #4
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:13 PM ET
Best Bet #6 SHADOW COAST
$48,000.00

Race 4 Maiden Claiming

Win	2-1	6	Shadow Coast	L Saez
Place	3-1	4	Restless Renegade	B J Hernandez Jr.
Show	6-1	8	All the Luck	A Concepcion
Wild card	10-1	3	Soco and Lime	C Barbosa
Alternate 1	6-1	1	Saint Shance	A Cedillo
Alternate 2	15-1	5	Berniedott	J R Leparoux

Exacta 6-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX
Trifecta 4/6/8 BOX, 3/4/8 BOX
Race #5
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:45 PM ET
$45,000.00

Race 5 Claiming

Win	7-2	8	Kunshan Bridge	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	3-1	11	Ludwig	J Alvarado
Show	5-1	2	Sutherland	E Morales
Wild card	12-1	7	W W Crazy	C J Lanerie
Alternate 1	6-1	5	Born Flawless	T Gaffalione
Alternate 2	12-1	6	Magic Castle	C A Torres

Exacta 8-11 BOX, 11-2 BOX, 2-7 BOX
Trifecta 2/8/11 BOX, 2/7/11 BOX
Race #6
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:17 PM ET
Best Bet #1 TOM CAT TUESDAY
$48,000.00

Race 6 Maiden Claiming

Win	3-1	1	Tom Cat Tuesday	T Gaffalione
Place	6-1	3	Skyler	A Concepcion
Show	10-1	4	Prince Day	J Loveberry
Wild card	6-1	7	McMusic	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 1	10-1	9	Sand Street	L Saez
Alternate 2	12-1	5	Open Court	B Curtis

Exacta 1-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/4 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX
Race #7
Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 03:48 PM ET
Best Bet #4 DRAGOON GUARD
$148,000.00

Race 7 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	9-5	4	Dragoon Guard	F Geroux
Place	7-2	6	Best Actor	L Machado
Show	4-1	5	Bendoog	T Gaffalione
Wild card	10-1	8	Notary	L Saez
Alternate 1	15-1	2	Trademark	J Alvarado
Alternate 2	6-1	7	Warrior Johny	I Ortiz Jr.

Exacta 4-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-8 BOX
Trifecta 4/5/6 BOX, 5/6/8 BOX
Race #8
Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:19 PM ET
$127,000.00

Race 8 Allowance

Win	7-2	5	Caribbean Wind	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	9-2	8	Big Trouble	T Gaffalione
Show	6-1	11	Perfect Figure	L Dettori
Wild card	4-1	1	Mechaya	L Saez
Alternate 1	6-1	10	Debt Free	A Concepcion
Alternate 2	8-1	9	Grade A	R Gutierrez

Exacta 5-8 BOX, 8-11 BOX, 11-1 BOX
Trifecta 5/8/11 BOX, 1/8/11 BOX
Race #9
Dirt 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 04:50 PM ET
$60,000.00

Race 9 Starter Allowance

Win	3-1	8	Hey Boss	J Loveberry
Place	4-1	6	Metatrons Muse	B J Hernandez Jr.
Show	5-1	10	Shot of Courage	E Asmussen
Wild card	6-1	4	Runwithheart	A Beschizza
Alternate 1	12-1	5	Lemon Drop Shot	A Concepcion
Alternate 2	10-1	9	Twirling Troillet	E Morales

Exacta 8-6 BOX, 6-10 BOX, 10-4 BOX
Trifecta 6/8/10 BOX, 4/6/10 BOX