Thursday 9/25/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Hawthorne - Race #1

#6 Three Afleet	He was really flat last time out at 6/5, but he's obviously capable of something better than that and has some room to bounce back while trying the turf today for the first time with a versatile enough pedigree.
#1 Journey	He has run OK going short in the past, but his current form is pretty heavy on the route lines. He comes out of a much better spot last out, though, so he wouldn't be a surprise to get past these late.
#2 Gunny Sack	She goes in search of the hat trick here after earning the hike with a couple sharp sprint scores, and she doesn't seem overmatched despite finding a better crew today.
Race Summary	Three Afleet goes to the turf today after a flat try, but he has been competitive with some of these in the past and should be able to bounce back today.

Hawthorne - Race #7

#6 Unkept Promises	She didn't show anything in that turf try last month, but she also didn't have a really easy go of things that day and might be more effective here. Worth another look.
#5 Brave Samantha	She can probably hit hard here while leaving behind some better Kentucky spots, but most of her form is pretty one-paced, and I'm just not that enthusiastic about her here, especially if the price stays kind of short.
#9 Miracle Minded	Tactical speed gets an OK draw to watch things unfold, and she wouldn't be any real surprise here with some honest form from Minnesota on her page.
Race Summary	Unkept Promises should find a pretty good tracking spot here, and a less stressful trip this time around may help her find enough to stay in the mix.

Hawthorne - Race #8

#4 Little Steven	Pace should be an OK price with a couple of lines on his page that have had him finishing behind some of these, but I wonder if he gets the right kind of trip near the top to give him a chance to sneak away at some point.
#1 Calisue	Not totally sure how she's going to stack up here, but the recent form is pretty honest, and I like that she has some solid finishing ability. Wouldn't count her out against the boys today.
#3 C F V Bullet	Not much wrong with the recent form, and he has a little bit of versatility that might play well here to find a decent spying/finishing spot. One of the ones.
Race Summary	Little Steven should be in the mix throughout, and the price should be OK to see if he can stay the course today by shaking off a little early pressure.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Penn National - Race #2

#6 QUEEN’S WREATH (6-1)	Ready to put 2-for-2 grass sprint record on the line against the boys.
#1 PEARL OF ACLAIM (8-1)	Big number on yielding course in win two back, wears blinkers.
#4 KANTKNOWITALL (5-1)	Two ‘photo’ wins and a near miss on turf, dirt and synthetic tracks this year.
Race Summary	QUEEN’S WREATH, carried wide by the game pace setter in the stretch, put away that rival in the final sixteenth for her second turf sprint victory in as many tries. She continued strong on the gallop out, earning a playback against the boys at an inviting price. Bet to win and place and play a 1-4-6 exacta box.

Penn National - Race #3

#3 BLO BY THE FIELD (9-2)	Needed one, might not need another to graduate on the class drop.
#2 LADY LEMONCELL0 (9-2)	Finished second at three distances in the last two months.
#6 MISS YOUNG LADY (8-1)	Pressed 5-2 leader, bothered by odds-on winner, gave way in stretch.
Race Summary	BLO BY THE FIELD raced evenly behind the runaway pace-setter in a well-bet debut. It appeared as if she needed the race, so any move forward could prove the difference in an evenly-matched field. Bet to win and place and play 3-2 and 3-6 exactas.

Penn National - Race #5

#2 UPTOWN SERAPHINA (2-1)	Switches pilots, memory can serve her well in bottom-level sprint.
#3 ILLUSION OF HOPE (10-1)	Faded in unfamiliar lead role, can rally for share in this spot.
#1 DESI’S REWARD (5-2)	Controlled easy pace, held second as the fave going a route of ground.
Race Summary	UPTOWN SERAPHINA can be excused for her latest start and figures tough to beat is she duplicates a pair of photo-finish setbacks against better prior to that. She is nearing six figures in Penn National earnings with a 32/5-7-6 record, but changes riders tonight. Bet to win and place and play 2-1 and 2-3 exactas.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belmont at the Big A
PURCHASE

Belmont at the Big A - Race 5	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 5 &6, Pick 3 ($1) (5-7) Pick 4 (.50) (5-8)
Claiming $40,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 99 • Purse: $65,000 • Post: 3:10P
(UP TO $11,310 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 25, 2025 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SAGAMORE MISCHIEF: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. SYSTEMIC CHANG E: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. RITHM NIC: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. TIGER MOON: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. RIDGEWOOD RUNNER: Jockey/Trainer combination re turn on investment is at least +20.
6	SAGAMORE MISCHIEF	2/1	5/1
1	SYSTEMIC CHANGE	4/1	7/1
5	RITHM NIC	12/1	8/1
3	TIGER MOON	6/1	8/1
7	RIDGEWOOD RUNNER	5/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	RITHM NIC	5	12/1	Front-runner	95	97	84.4	84.4	74.4
6	SAGAMORE MISCHIEF	6	2/1	Front-runner	101	96	73.0	84.4	78.9
7	RIDGEWOOD RUNNER	7	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	105	97	118.5	43.6	38.1
4	JACKSON HEIGHTS	4	5/1	Trailer	99	89	71.0	78.2	69.7
3	TIGER MOON	3	6/1	Trailer	95	91	62.4	88.2	79.7
1	SYSTEMIC CHANGE	1	4/1	Trailer	97	90	59.6	86.0	81.0
2	LOST IN ROME	2	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	96	85	75.6	79.4	68.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park
PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race 5	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Claiming $7,500 • 5 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $10,100 • Post: 2:35P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 25, 2025 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED)(PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $6,500). (IF TRANSFERRED TO THE MAIN TRACK, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT FIVE FURLONGS.).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. JEFE DE OBRA (CHI) is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * JEFE DE OBRA (CHI): Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. ON PALM SUNDAY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	JEFE DE OBRA (CHI)	5/2	2/1
2	ON PALM SUNDAY	8/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	SOUTHERN BREEZE	6	8/1	Front-runner	78	77	78.6	66.6	55.6
10	CHICA LINDA	10	9/2	Front-runner	69	62	76.8	61.0	44.0
2	ON PALM SUNDAY	2	8/1	Stalker	86	78	63.6	70.8	65.3
8	VAST HORIZONS	8	6/1	Stalker	86	82	39.2	69.8	61.8
1	JEFE DE OBRA (CHI)	1	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	90	84	89.0	83.6	80.6
4	FOLLOW YOUR DREAM	4	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	77	61	57.8	67.3	54.3
7	PAEZ	7	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	73	75	41.3	62.9	54.9
9	MIDNIGHT TEQUILA	9	30/1	Trailer	85	74	36.0	66.9	52.4
3	ONE FAST MIDDIE	3	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	68	64.8	57.8	41.3
5	BAMBY BOOM	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	67	57.4	56.6	43.1

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Remington Park - Race #6 - Post: 8:20pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 62

Rating:

#9 WOMAN'S INTUITION (ML=9/2)
#1 LITTLE RAG DOLL (ML=10/1)


WOMAN'S INTUITION - Don't often see a favorable return on investment like +66. This jock/trainer pair has done well together over the last twelve months. Note that although this filly finished in the place spot in her last race, she was well in front of the third place horse. This is a classic positive angle. Ranks at the top in earnings per race entered. A strong try in this race can add to the lifetime bankroll. LITTLE RAG DOLL - Cabrera and Corderman perform well when they join forces. It's hard to beat a +45 return on investment for a rider and trainer.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 AVALON GIRL (ML=7/2), #7 VILLAINY (ML=4/1), #3 LET YOUR LOVE SHOW (ML=6/1),

AVALON GIRL - I normally try to beat this kind of chalk. Extended vacation and no drop in level of competition. VILLAINY - I find it hard to play this pony this time. Make her show you something in a short distance contest before you play her in a race of 6 furlongs. Don't feel this less than sharp equine will do much running in today's event. That last speed rating was pedestrian when compared with today's Equibase class figure. LET YOUR LOVE SHOW - If she goes off close to the oddsmaker's morning line of 6/1, I'll have to pass.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#9 WOMAN'S INTUITION is going to be the play if we are getting 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $49680 Class Rating: 97

IND - R5 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, RESTRICTED OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2025 OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (RACES WHERE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 KING CAB 20/1
# 8 FOXTROTANNA 20/1
# 9 BAL A KAZOO 7/2

KING CAB looks to be a very good contender especially at a such a nice price. Can't overlook the connections here, a 16 winning percentage, one of the best at getting into the winner's circle. BAL A KAZOO - He has been racing admirably recently while recording strong speed figures. May wake up with Lasix change (with second time Lasix) today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Hawthorne - Race #7 - Post: 5:47pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $29,000 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#3 ROARING VIXEN (ML=8/1)
#5 BRAVE SAMANTHA (ML=5/2)
#2 RESORT FEE (ML=12/1)


ROARING VIXEN - Not much speed in this race other than this pony. Last race at Hawthorne on August 28th was a big class drop for this horse. Facing similar foes in today's race. She should do well this time out. BRAVE SAMANTHA - Sub-par try in the last race at Kentucky Downs was due to the off-going (she finished tenth). Will most certainly do better in this event under better track conditions. Trainer Medina moves this horse down the ladder based on class rating points to face much lower class horses. Look for a sharp race in here. This horse is number one in earnings per race. She looks solid in today's event. RESORT FEE - Taking a class drop in class rating points from her Aug 21st race at Woodbine. Based on that data point, I will give this thoroughbred the advantage. This jockey and trainer have a lucrative ROI when they are put together. Equibase speed figures on the grass point to this entrant as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance-surface. This horse has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Bendezu, and this one could bound home the winner.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 MIRACLE MINDED (ML=7/2), #7 I'M HUNGOVER (ML=5/1), #6 UNKEPT PROMISES (ML=6/1),

MIRACLE MINDED - Improbable that this animal will finish better than she did last time when finishing third. This was a hot horse, but now this one hasn't been doing anything in the morning. Have to be leery of this horse. Tough to like the downward moving flow (69/64/57) of speed ratings. I'M HUNGOVER - Don't believe this less than sharp equine will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed figure was most unsatisfactory when compared with today's class rating. UNKEPT PROMISES - 6/1 is just not enough of a price to take on this horse.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 ROARING VIXEN to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,3,5] with [2,3,5] with [2,3,5,7,9] with [2,3,5,7,9] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $78000 Class Rating: 93

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 CURRENT CLIMATE 6/1
# 2 LIUZZA 4/1
# 10 J RIVERS 8/1

CURRENT CLIMATE looks competitive to best this field. Ran a solid last race. She has formidable class ratings, averaging 98, and has to be carefully examined in this competition. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this mare. LIUZZA - Shows evidence of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 84 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the top in this group. Don't let this filly slip past you. Could score at big odds. J RIVERS - Jacobson has a strong win percent with horses racing in dirt sprint races. With a formidable return on investment of +12 this conditioner has shown decent results with entries running at this distance and surface.