Saturday 9/27/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-23-2025, 08:20 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saturday’s Woodward at Belmont at Aque

September 22, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

It’s a Breeders’ Cup prep weekend across the country, and NYRA’s Saturday card features races in the Turf Sprint, Sprint, Filly & Mare Sprint, Turf and Classic/Dirt Mile ranks. The Grade 2 $300,000 Woodward at 1-1/8 miles could fit hopefuls in the Classic or Dirt Mile divisions.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Woodward (Race 6):

#1-AWESOME AARON: Grade 3 Pimlico Special winner exits a fourth-place effort in the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic for trainer Norm Casse. Ricardo Santana Jr. takes over the mount as he looks to continue his new-found NYRA success. Claimed for $40,000 nearly one year ago, this Practical Joke colt has bagged more than $300,000 since the barn change. First start over the Aqueduct oval since breaking his maiden locally in March of 2022.

#2-POST TIME: Maryland kingpin returns to the site of his 2024 Grade 2 Carter victory and Cigar Mile third-place finish. The Brittany Russell trainee has won 12 of 20 for $1.4 million and was runner-up in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He could be headed back to Del Mar with a solid effort Saturday as the 5-year-old partners with regular rider Sheldon Russell, husband of the trainer.

#3-WILLY D’S: Cross-entered in Saturday’s Grade 2 Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs, where he currently is based. The Mike Maker-trained gelding was claimed for $50,000 in March at Oaklawn and since won the listed Schaeffer Memorial at Horseshoe Indianapolis and finished second in the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic. Flavien Prat, who won this race 2 years ago aboard Zandon, is named to ride in what could be this son of Lookin At Lucky’s first trip over the Aqueduct dirt.

#4-FILM STAR Claimed for $100,000 at Saratoga in his most recent victory on August 22, trainer Rob Atras steps this one back up in class in a hurry. The 6-year-old has bagged more than $750,000 while winning a pair of listed stakes. Runner-up in the 2023 Woodward behind favored Zandon when part of the Linda Rice stable. Manny Franco, who won 4 races Sunday at the Big A (8 overall last week), takes over the mount.

#5-GOULD’S GOLD: Grade 2 Charles Town Classic and Grade 3 Cornhusker Handicap third-place finisher aims for a second career stakes victory. The Kenny McPeek charge scored the 2024 listed Smarty Jones at Parx before going on the sidelines for more than 7 months. Goldencents 4-year-old has won 1 of 4 this year, a Churchill allowance, and will team with Hall of Fame rider Javier Castellano for the first time. Aqueduct debut off a series of Saratoga training track bullet works.

#6-PHILEAS FOGG: Front-running winner of Saratoga’s Grade 2 Suburban has upped his game in 2025 after winning of 6 vs. lesser last year and being claimed for $62,500. Gustavo Rodriguez trainee gets the return call from speed-friendly rider Kendrick Carmouche after being disqualified from third in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga for interference early in that race. He comes off back-to-back career-high Beyer Speed Figures and is 4: 3-1-0 over the track.

#7-LOCKED: The Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap winner won the ’24 Grade 2 Cigar Mile over this track and is 2-for-2 locally. Todd Pletcher’s colt by Gun Runner has won 5 of 10 for $1.7 million and looks to bounce back off a disappointing third in the Grade 2 Suburban as the 4-5 favorite (beaten by Woodward return rival Phileas Fogg et al). The mount goes back to his former pilot, Hall of Famer John Velazquez, as Jose Ortiz is supplanted in the saddle and without a ride in the race. Pletcher’s 5 wins in the Woodward (including 2 of the last 3 years) are tied for most all-time with Bill Mott.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-24-2025, 07:32 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saturday’s Lukas Classic at Churchill

September 23, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

A heartfelt edition of the Grade 2 $500,000 Lukas Classic will be run Saturday at Churchill Downs, the first since the June 28 passing of legendary trainer D. Wayne Lukas. The 4-time Kentucky Derby and 4-time Kentucky Oaks winner became this race’s namesake in 2015. The 1-1/8 miles Lukas Classic could be a potential Breeders’ Cup springboard in both the Classic and Dirt Mile divisions.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Lukas Classic (Race 10):

#1-WILLY D’S: Cross-entered in Woodward Stakes in New York, but he’s based locally at Churchill Downs. The Mike Maker-trained gelding was claimed for $50,000 in March at Oaklawn and since won the listed Schaeffer Memorial at Horseshoe Indianapolis and finished second in the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic. Luis Saez, who has ridden him in 2 of his last 3 starts, will be aboard if he remains at Churchill.

#2-HIT SHOW: Defending Lukas Classic champion can become this race’s first 2-time winner. The 2025 Dubai World Cup winner has won 10 of 20 lifetime for more than $8.5 million and exits a win in the West Virginia Governor’s Stakes at Mountaineer. Regular rider Florent Geroux returns to the saddle as Hit Show looks to improve his record to 4-for-6 on the season and match his 2024 ledger. Brad Cox also saddled 2021 Lukas Classic winner Knicks Go.

#3-RATTLE N ROLL: $3.4 million earner makes his first US start since winning last November’s Grade 2 Clark at Churchill – which followed his third-place run behind Hit Show in the ’24 Lukas Classic. He opened 2025 in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, winning 1 of 3 but failing to make any dent in the Saudi Cup and Dubai World Cup before getting the summer off. Series of local bullet works for his return, which comes in his third straight Lukas Classic appearance (fourth in 2023). Trainer Kenny McPeek also saddles Mystik Dan here and turns the mount over to Julien Leparoux.

#4-PRINCE OF POWER: Longshot maiden claiming and allowance winner seeks his first stakes victory in his fifth such attempt. Runner-up at Ellis this summer in the Cowboy Jones Stakes for trainer Jesus Esquivel. Broke his maiden at Churchill Downs last November, but has yet to compete locally in 8 starts this year.

#5-MYSTIK DAN: The 2024 Kentucky Derby winner is 1-for-8 since being draped in roses, winning Churchill’s Grade 3 Blame Stakes on May 31. The $4.5 million earner since has been fourth in the Grade 1 Foster locally on dirt and the Grade 1 Arlington Million on Colonial’s turf course. Regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr. was seriously injured in a spill Sunday at Churchill Downs, leaving trainer Kenny McPeek in search of a replacement.

#6-DISARM: Fourth in last year’s Lukas, the $1.6 million earner seeks his first stakes win since Churchill’s 2023 Grade 3 Matt Winn. Current campaign includes top-4 finishes in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap and Saratoga’s Grade 1 Whitney for Steve Asmussen. Jockey change to Irad Ortiz Jr. as the 5-year-old Gun Runner horse looks to get over the big-race hump.

#7-BANISHING: First or second in 8 stakes races in 2025, the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic winner has bagged more than $1.5 million on the season. The David Jacboson trainee will have run in all 9 months on this annual calendar if he starts Saturday. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who won the Lukas Classic in 2018 (Mind Your Biscuits) and 2022 (Hot Rod Charlie), is 2-for-2 in recent pairings with this 5-year-old gelding by Ghostzapper.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2025, 06:43 AM

Race of the Week: Santa Anita's Goodwood Stakes on Saturday

September 24, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The Great Race Place flies from the gate Saturday with five important stakes races, none more so than the Grade 1 Goodwood. The potential Breeders' Cup Classic / Dirt Mile prep will be Race 9 of 10 and part of the all-new Sunset 6 wager that includes the final 3 races daily at both Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park.

Horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET be sure to take advantage of the Bet $10,000 Exacta-Thon promotion on Saturday at Santa Anita.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners FULL SERRANO, EXPRESS TRAIN, and GAMING are joined by Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed FIRST MISSION. On strength of schedule, EXPRESS TRAIN and FIRST MISSION have kept the strongest company lines over an extended period.

Pace:
FULL SERRANO has made the lead at some point in all 4 domestic starts, while stablemates GAMING, PRIVMAN and NEVADA BEACH likely won't let him get loose. FIRST MISSION and ULTIMATE GAMBLE also prefer to be in striking distance. The pace should be hot for 9 furlongs.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-GAMING: Sophomores get a 4-6 pound weight break on elders here, and this 2024 Del Mar Futurity winner has been up and down since that signature score. Wired fellow 3YOs in the Affirmed June 8 in only local try, but only a trio of rivals that day and was last of just a 3-horse field in the Shared Belief most recently at Del Mar. Distance and pace scenario don't help his cause.

#2-ULTIMATE GAMBLE: Nabbed third in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at 71-1 odds last time when making his stakes debut in lifetime start #10. Has shown mild, but steady improvement and could have more ability to relax in this race than some of the others. Hard to see on top, but perhaps a share.

#3-PRIVMAN: Big step in class for the second of 3 Bob Baffert trainees, who makes his stakes debut in start #6. Cautiously maneuvered in maiden spots before winning back-to-back races at Del Mar this summer. Justify colt has yet to try Santa Anita or a race beyond 1 mile. Antonio Fresu won the Hollywood Meet title locally this year for his first SA crown. Not in a hurry to embrace but can't flippantly toss.

#4-FIRST MISSION: Morning line favorite comes west for the first time for trainer Brad Cox. April's Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap winner comes off a baffling loss at 1-5 odds on the class drop in Monmouth's Grade 3 Iselin. His best certainly is good enough to win this, but reliance on that is far from certain. Optimum distance likely 1-1/16 miles, but has 2 graded wins at this trip at Oaklawn. Mixed vibes and likely underlay price.

#5-NEVADA BEACH: Third Baffert charge beat nothing of consequence in the Los Al Derby and was second to barnmate Gaming as the chalk in the Affirmed. Pedigree doesn't scream 9F against stout competition. Kyle Frey rarely rides for the barn as this colt loses pilot Juan Hernandez to Full Serrano. Will make him beat me.

#6-EXPRESS TRAIN: The 8-year-old doesn't have as much tread on the tires as his age suggests, running 27 times with about 3-5 starts per season. Poorly timed ride in the San Diego soiled his 2025 form, but thoughts that he was going sour were washed away when he was able to sprint within a length of Dr. Venkman in the Pat O'Brien. In a field loaded with speed, he'll get every chance to let his true route form shine from off the pace. Yes, March of 2022 was a long time ago since his last victory, but I like his chances to make some noise Saturday.

#7-FULL SERRANO: The 2024 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner strictly is the horse to beat off a romping allowance return win at Del Mar. The Argentine export has been nearly flawless in 4 domestic starts and his Pacific Classic and South American form indicate the 9 furlongs here is within his scope. The amount of pace competition in the race opens the door some, but he's clearly the most likely of the speed horses to sustain late. First trip at Santa Anita in the afternoon, and while he worked fast Sept. 21 locally, he was asked to do so (for that that's worth).

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
EXPRESS TRAIN is 15-16 in the superfecta at Santa Anita lifetime and gets a great pace set-up to make an impact.

Best Longshot Contender:
ULTIMATE GAMBLE could stay out of the pace fray and pass tired runners for a share like his Pacific Classic surprise third at huge odds.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$40 exacta FULL SERRANO over EXPRESS TRAIN. $10 exacta EXPRESS TRAIN over FULL SERRANO. $10 exacta box EXPRESS TRAIN and FIRST MISSION ($20). $30 win EXPRESS TRAIN.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2025, 06:44 AM

Race of the Week: Santa Anita's Goodwood Stakes on Saturday

September 24, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The Great Race Place flies from the gate Saturday with five important stakes races, none more so than the Grade 1 Goodwood. The potential Breeders' Cup Classic / Dirt Mile prep will be Race 9 of 10 and part of the all-new Sunset 6 wager that includes the final 3 races daily at both Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park.

Horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET be sure to take advantage of the Bet $10,000 Exacta-Thon promotion on Saturday at Santa Anita.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners FULL SERRANO, EXPRESS TRAIN, and GAMING are joined by Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed FIRST MISSION. On strength of schedule, EXPRESS TRAIN and FIRST MISSION have kept the strongest company lines over an extended period.

Pace:
FULL SERRANO has made the lead at some point in all 4 domestic starts, while stablemates GAMING, PRIVMAN and NEVADA BEACH likely won't let him get loose. FIRST MISSION and ULTIMATE GAMBLE also prefer to be in striking distance. The pace should be hot for 9 furlongs.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-GAMING: Sophomores get a 4-6 pound weight break on elders here, and this 2024 Del Mar Futurity winner has been up and down since that signature score. Wired fellow 3YOs in the Affirmed June 8 in only local try, but only a trio of rivals that day and was last of just a 3-horse field in the Shared Belief most recently at Del Mar. Distance and pace scenario don't help his cause.

#2-ULTIMATE GAMBLE: Nabbed third in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic at 71-1 odds last time when making his stakes debut in lifetime start #10. Has shown mild, but steady improvement and could have more ability to relax in this race than some of the others. Hard to see on top, but perhaps a share.

#3-PRIVMAN: Big step in class for the second of 3 Bob Baffert trainees, who makes his stakes debut in start #6. Cautiously maneuvered in maiden spots before winning back-to-back races at Del Mar this summer. Justify colt has yet to try Santa Anita or a race beyond 1 mile. Antonio Fresu won the Hollywood Meet title locally this year for his first SA crown. Not in a hurry to embrace but can't flippantly toss.

#4-FIRST MISSION: Morning line favorite comes west for the first time for trainer Brad Cox. April's Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap winner comes off a baffling loss at 1-5 odds on the class drop in Monmouth's Grade 3 Iselin. His best certainly is good enough to win this, but reliance on that is far from certain. Optimum distance likely 1-1/16 miles, but has 2 graded wins at this trip at Oaklawn. Mixed vibes and likely underlay price.

#5-NEVADA BEACH: Third Baffert charge beat nothing of consequence in the Los Al Derby and was second to barnmate Gaming as the chalk in the Affirmed. Pedigree doesn't scream 9F against stout competition. Kyle Frey rarely rides for the barn as this colt loses pilot Juan Hernandez to Full Serrano. Will make him beat me.

#6-EXPRESS TRAIN: The 8-year-old doesn't have as much tread on the tires as his age suggests, running 27 times with about 3-5 starts per season. Poorly timed ride in the San Diego soiled his 2025 form, but thoughts that he was going sour were washed away when he was able to sprint within a length of Dr. Venkman in the Pat O'Brien. In a field loaded with speed, he'll get every chance to let his true route form shine from off the pace. Yes, March of 2022 was a long time ago since his last victory, but I like his chances to make some noise Saturday.

#7-FULL SERRANO: The 2024 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner strictly is the horse to beat off a romping allowance return win at Del Mar. The Argentine export has been nearly flawless in 4 domestic starts and his Pacific Classic and South American form indicate the 9 furlongs here is within his scope. The amount of pace competition in the race opens the door some, but he's clearly the most likely of the speed horses to sustain late. First trip at Santa Anita in the afternoon, and while he worked fast Sept. 21 locally, he was asked to do so (for that that's worth).

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
EXPRESS TRAIN is 15-16 in the superfecta at Santa Anita lifetime and gets a great pace set-up to make an impact.

Best Longshot Contender:
ULTIMATE GAMBLE could stay out of the pace fray and pass tired runners for a share like his Pacific Classic surprise third at huge odds.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$40 exacta FULL SERRANO over EXPRESS TRAIN. $10 exacta EXPRESS TRAIN over FULL SERRANO. $10 exacta box EXPRESS TRAIN and FIRST MISSION ($20). $30 win EXPRESS TRAIN.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2025, 06:45 AM

Jeremy Plonk: 18 Stakes in 18 Sentences | Saturday, Sept 27

September 24, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The red carpet rolls out for Breeders’ Cup auditions this weekend, and Saturday’s slate of national stakes overfills most any cup. Let’s take the express across America and spotlight some potential winners.

2:07 pm ET | Belmont at the Big A: Race 4 | $200,000 Belmont Turf Sprint

Strong lean for me toward early speed in short-field turf sprints, so #2 Dancing Buck has a real chance to wire this under early aggressor Kendrick Carmouche over a course he loves.

2:37 pm ET | Belmont at the Big A: Race 5 | $500,000 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic

Defending champion #5 Far Bridge was needlessly wide in the Sword Dancer at 6-5 after a minor excuse at the start, but the increased price and relative lack of pace make him a “buy now” if trying to beat 2-time Breeders’ Cup Turf winner #3 Rebel’s Romance.

3:08 pm ET | Belmont at the Big A: Race 6 | $300,000 Woodward Stakes

Multiple Grade 1 winner #7 Locked always gets hammered at the windows, but his last 2 haven’t been up to his par while this pace could really suit late-running #2 Post Time, whose BRIS late pace figures nearly always shine – and he’s been campaigned to peak in the fall this year.

3:58 pm ET | Laurel: Race 9 | $125,000 Laurel Futurity

Stretch-out performers have dominated the last several editions of the Laurel Futurity and #4 Proton’s sprint debut at Colonial was eye-catching and educational with the best turf BRIS late pace figure in the field.

4:10 pm ET | Belmont at the Big A: Race 8 | $250,000 Gallant Bloom Stakes

That extra 110 yards at 6-1/2 furlongs could trip up several of these, while cut-back runners #2 Impel (Brad Cox) and #4 Scalable (Todd Pletcher) figure to be finishing strongest of all as I’ll let the tote be my guide on the better price between the pair.

4:13 pm ET | Delaware Park: Race 7 | $150,000 Christiana Stakes

Wide-open field with quality options, slightest of leans to well-drawn #2 Don’t Jinx It given her local win over the course and pace versatility to work out a beneficial trip inside.

4:26 pm ET | Churchill Downs: Race 8 | $400,000 Ack Ack Stakes

#1 Most Wanted broke tardy, rushed up and tired vs. a much tougher Forego Stakes cast at Saratoga and should be strictly the one to beat at a short price over a track that he loves.

4:26 pm ET | Laurel: Race 10 | $125,000 Selima Stakes

The finishers look questionable here, so speedster #6 Oscar’s Encore may be capable of outlasting them from a better draw and race set-up than she had at Saratoga and Kentucky Downs.

4:41 pm ET | Belmont at the Big A: Race 9 | $200,000 Vosburgh Stakes

The Grade 1 Forego was such an infinitely tougher race than this that it’s difficult to imagine that the late-running second and third-place finishers, #1 Scotland and #9 Crazy Mason (the top pick with a better local mark), shouldn’t roll by these in the lane.

4:46 pm ET | Delaware Park: Race 8 | $150,000 Endine Stakes

Leading local jockey Jaime Rodriguez takes the call on #3 Striker Has Dial and that New Yorker’s last regional raid on Preakness week when second in the Skipat at Pimlico looks like a winning effort against this group.

5:05 pm ET | Gulfstream Park: Race 9 | $75,000 Hollywood Beach Stakes

Improving #9 Monster has been a different animal on grass and tops this Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint prep against #8 Lennilu, the filly who may have peaked early.

5:19 pm ET | Delaware Park: Race # | $150,000 Kent Stakes

The 1-1/8 miles should suit #4 Soleil Volant, who has won over the course, and I like that trainer Graham Motion consistently has put this colt in similar 3-year-old turf stakes across the region at Pimlico, Monmouth and Colonial with consistent results.

5:29 pm ET | Churchill Downs: Race 10 | $500,000 Lukas Classic Stakes

Knowing full well that more likely options exist with #7 Banishing, #2 Hit Show and Kentucky Derby winner #5 Mystik Dan, I’m going back to the well one last time at a price with #6 Disarm, a career underachiever who perhaps Irad Ortiz Jr. moving to the saddle can finally get his best effort.

5:30 pm ET | Santa Anita: Race 4 | $200,000 City of Hope Mile

Chalky exacta looms as defending race champ #3 Johannes is 2-for-2 in prior second-off-the-layoff situations and can be forgiven for a first-turn disaster at Saratoga, but last year’s runner-up #5 Almendares will make him earn it while in peak form and could spring the upset.

6:30 pm ET | Santa Anita: Race 6 | $200,000 John Henry Turf Championship

#7 Gold Phoenix won the Del Mar Handicap for the fourth time (!) last out, but he’s only 3-for-15 at Santa Anita on turf, where rising 4-year-old #6 Stay Hot has been outstanding and is the pick to flip the Aug. 30 result in his favor.

7:30 pm ET | Santa Anita: Race 8 | $200,000 Eddie D. Stakes

SA turf sprint specialist #8 First Peace has an advantageous post draw for a downhill sprint on the outside and should finish in the clear for a super, second-off-the-layoff barn in Mark Glatt.

8:00 pm ET | Santa Anita: Race 9 | $300,000 Goodwood Stakes

The veteran #6 Express Train was sharpened in a better-than-looks sprint effort last time and will be my key first and second as he could benefit from a trio of Baffert runners all ganging up on the classy speed of #4 First Mission and #7 Full Serrano.

8:30 pm ET | Santa Anita: Race 10 | $100,000 John C. Harris Stakes

Only 2 of these 13 turf sprinters exit wins, so a rebound by #9 Eiffel isn’t out of the question with a cutback in distance that will allow her to cut it loose after fighting Antonio Fresu routing last time.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2025, 09:42 AM

College football betting trends —

Saturday

Oregon at Penn State (-3?, 52): Rematch of Big Ten title game last year won and covered by the Ducks, 45-37. Oregon is on a 1-3 spread skid on the road and 1-2-1 ATS as an underdog. The Ducks are on a 7-3 over run. Penn State coach James Franklin is 0-3 ATS this season. The Nittany Lions are on a 7-3 over run. Edge: Over.

USC (-6?, 60?) at Illinois: USC has won five straight while going 4-1 ATS, and it’s also on a 5-1 over run. Illinois is on an 11-4-1 spread streak after its seven-game win and cover streak was snapped in last week’s blowout loss at Indiana. The Fighting Illini have covered six of their past nine as underdogs. Edge: Illinois and over.

Notre Dame (-4?, 64?) at Arkansas: This is the first meeting between the schools. Notre Dame is on a 5-0 over streak and 9-3 over run overall. The Razorbacks are on a 7-3 over run and are 6-3 ATS as underdogs. Edge: Over and slight to Arkansas.

Ohio State (-8, 51?) at Washington: First road game of the season for the Buckeyes, who went 5-2 ATS away from home last season. Washington coach Jedd Fisch is 8-0 ATS at Husky Stadium, and the Huskies are on a 4-0 over streak. Edge: Slight to Washington and over.

LSU at Ole Miss (-1?, 55): The home team has won the past seven meetings while going 6-1 ATS. LSU is 3-5 ATS on the road and 3-3 ATS as an underdog. Ole Miss has won and covered all three home games this season, and coach Lane Kiffin is on a 4-1 over run. Edge: Ole Miss and slight to over.

Auburn at Texas A&M (-6, 53): The home team has won and covered the past four meetings. Auburn is on a 6-9-1 spread skid. Texas A&M snapped an 0-7 ATS slide in its win over Notre Dame. The Aggies have gone over in their first three games this season. Edge: Texas A&M and over.

Indiana (-7?, 48) at Iowa: The Hoosiers are on an 11-4 cover run for coach Curt Cignetti. Hawkeyes coach Kirk Ferentz is 3-7-2 ATS as an underdog. Iowa is on a 7-3 over streak in Big Ten games. Edge: Indiana and slight to over.

Utah (-12?, 48?) at West Virginia: The home team has won and covered the past six West Virginia games, and the Mountaineers are 4-0 to the under this season. Utah had its five-game win and cover streak broken last week by Texas Tech. The Utes went 3-1-1 to the under on the Big 12 road last season. Edge: Under and slight to West Virginia.

Arizona at Iowa State (-6?, 49?): Arizona has won and covered all three games this season for coach Brent Brennan after going 2-10 ATS last season. The Wildcats are on an 0-3 under streak. The Cyclones are on a 5-2-1 spread streak at home, including 1-0-1 this season. Edge: Slight to Arizona and under.

Alabama at Georgia (-3, 52?): Alabama has won nine of the past 10 meetings, including the past two, though the Crimson Tide are on a 1-5 spread skid away from home. Alabama is 3-2 ATS in a rare underdog role. The Tide are on a 3-0 over run. Georgia coach Kirby Smart is on a 3-10-1 spread slide. Edge: Slight to over.

BYU (-6?, 48?) at Colorado: Rematch of Alamo Bowl won by BYU, 36-14. The Cougars have won and covered their first three this season, and are on a 7-2 spread uptick away from home. Colorado snapped an 0-4 spread streak in last week’s win over Wyoming. The Buffaloes are on a 5-2 under run. Edge: BYU and slight to under.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2025, 09:43 AM

Al Cimaglia: The Red Mile Early Pick 4 Analysis

September 27, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

The Red Mile has 15-race card with a first post coming at 1:00 PM EDT. The $1.00 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $7,500 guaranteed pool with a low 12% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (2:40 PM EDT)

6-Super Chapter (2/5)-Broke stride 3 back in the 1st race at Lex this year and then won the next 2 starts. Has done well at the Red Mile winning 5 of 7. Should be forwardly placed off the car and is the one to beat.
7-Big Shoes (6-1)-Will lean here in case the one above doesn't bring its fastball. The Burke pupil doesn't have the pedigree of others. But does come off a big try from post 9 last time, and on this track has the speed to stay in reach of the leaders throughout.

Race 7 (3:00 PM EDT)

1-Prince Hal Hanover (2-1)-Recent form has slipped and it could be some big miles may have taken its toll. But if 100%, Hal can carry its speed on a big track and will look for a bounce back performance. Will fade the program chalk Madden Oaks (5) coming off a sick scratch, and hopefully willl pick up some value here.
7-Fallout (9/2)-The Tony Alagna trainee is only 1-10 this season. But comes off one of its best races of the year, cashing a 2nd place check leaving from post 8. This will be the 2nd start off a sick scratch and could be sitting on a big try.
9-Sugar Man (6-1)-Raced well in the last 2 races despite drawing poorly and now makes its Lex debut. Wil take a swing for a price and does have a 149.3 mark at M1. Will probably need its best race to beat this field and could be overlooked. When Jason Bartlett teams up with the Alagna barn, they post 52% winners in 23 races.

Race 8 (3:20 PM EDT)

2-Margareta Hanover (8-1)-Will look for a price and Dexter Dunn can work a smooth steer with this post draw. Faced tough foes up North in the last 2 starts and had excuses in both races. Is winless this year but gives an honest effort and should be a big number.
5-Divine Thing (5/2)-This is a very nice Greenshoe filly who comes off a win in the Buckette. Will respect chances and could beat this crew but might be better on smaller ovals.
6-Miss Belmar (9/2)-This Noel Daily pupil is a big track horse who hasn't connected when a large purse is on the line. Has been stuck outside in the last 3 races and fits here. Could be a threat at a square price if brings its best race.

Race 9 (3:40 PM EDT)

2-Yo Tillie (2/5)-The Andrew Harris pupil is a perfect 9 for 9 this season. This gal should be on the lead shortly after the wings fold and not look back. Tillie will lose eventually but won't look for that to happen today.

$1 Early Pick 4

6,7/1,7,9/2,5,6/2
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2025, 09:43 AM

Scott Shapiro: Belmont at the Big A Saturday Spot Plays

September 26, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

It is a big day across the country on Saturday and New York is no exception where the card at Aqueduct includes five graded stakes races. Add to that a two-day Pick 6 carryover of $110,188. The Turf Classic (G1) and Woodward (G2) are the headliners, but there are quality wagering opportunities throughout the afternoon. Here are a few horses I will plant my flag on at the Big A.

Race 1:

#6 Igniter is the one to beat in this 2YO MSW over Aqueduct’s one-turn mile configuration. The Volatile colt ran a big third on debut despite making a five-wide moved under jockey Manny Franco. He was 26-1 that day, but will be far shorter in this spot making me want to look elsewhere. I landed on #4 Forever Man. The $210,000 Keeneland September 2024 purchase faced two solid groups of juvenile runners to kick off his career going 6-furlongs, including last out when he chased the pace of highly regarded Hero Declared and dominant winner It’s Our Time. The son of Bolt d’Oro tired in the end, but gets more ground here against a softer group. I am expecting a big forward in career start number 3 for the Glen Hill Farm colt.

Play: #4 Forever Man (6-1 ML)

Race 8: Gallant Bloom (G2)

The two morning line favorites in this 6.5-furlong dash over the main track both possess significant early speed. #1 R Disaster used it to her advantage over the off track at Saratoga last out, while #8 Senza Parole went a bit too quick off the near year layoff on August 24. R Disaster will be tough to catch if Dylan Davis tries and is able to relax Senza Parole in her second start off the bench, but otherwise there is a decent chance the two chalks duel each other into defeat. I will hope to get the perfect trip off them with #6 All Class. The Kantharos mare comes in having 2 of 4, but was turned away by R Disaster last out. It very well could happen again if the ML choice is able to control things early. That said, I expect a different race shape, which hopefully paves the way late for the Florida-bred claimed by Rice with her own $62,500 last October.

Play: #6 All Class (10-1 ML)

Race 9: Vosburgh (G3)

This $200,000 7-furlong dash over the main track is relatively wide open. #9 Crazy Mason is the best horse in the race, but is very much up against it given the lack of early speed signed on for a graded stake at one-turn over the main track. I am hopeful #6 Baby Yoda gets an aggressive ride out of the gate by jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. and avoids leaving too much to do when they turn for home. The 11-time winner was outrun in a strong edition of the Vanderbilt (G2), but bounced back with a win against allowance foes on August 29. Trainer Robert Falcone Jr. and Flying P Stable dipped in for a cool $100k to claim him and bring him back a month later in a tougher spot. He might not be quite as fast as he once was, but he has still run a few really good races in 2025 and should be good value on Saturday afternoon.

Play: #6 Baby Yoda (6-1 ML)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2025, 09:44 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita Park - Race #1

#9 Naturally Blonde	She might be a mildly playable price on the board today with the others listed below likely to take a bit of cash, too. She's had her chances, but she's pretty honest and typically shows up with an effort that keeps her in the mix with these.
#8 Della Terra	Wouldn't argue that hard with anyone landing here, as she has already turned in a couple nice efforts and took to the turf well last time out. The one to beat.
#1 Tiger of the Sea	Thought about this one on top in here and would want her on the tickets, but get a look at her on the track ahead of this. She's bringing some forward works to this long layoff run, but her debut here last year was solid enough.
Race Summary	Naturally Blonde has been in the frame with similar in the past and should get an OK tracking run today. Della Terra hits hard at a short price, too.

Santa Anita Park - Race #8

#5 Yellow Card	He has faced some tough customers along the way and did what he was supposed to do in that last one at Del Mar. He was only a length out of a Grade I win at Kentucky Downs last year, so there's a touch of class here, too.
#4 Sorrento Sky	He was in the picture last out in a close finish in the Green Flash, and he might find another decent tracking trip today. Seems like he's there if he brings his A-game.
#1 Reef Runner	Big effort from him last time out, and something similar would probably do the trick with this crew. Still, think there are a handful of competitive types lined up today and would want to look around a bit.
Race Summary	Yellow Card and Sorrento Sky look most appealing here to me, and they should find similar types of trips while not too far out of it.

Santa Anita Park - Race #10

#9 Eiffel	She has been well regarded since that sharp debut score here, and the cutback to this downhill sprint could be right up her alley.
#8 Favor to You	I thought pretty highly of her after her efforts here this spring, but I wanted to see just a bit better from her in the last couple in Kentucky. Could wake up now that she's back at home.
#1 Warming	She turns back after a couple of mild efforts with better crews, having run into Nitrogen, Fionn and May Day Ready in her last two starts. Think this spot suits her well while finding an easier group.
Race Summary	Eiffel looks interesting while getting a shorter trip today, and she should find herself in a really nice spot early on over this course.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2025, 09:44 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #2

#6 TUFF LUCK –	Returns to scene of runaway victory at this distance for the same connections.
#1 KEY STAT –	Farrior class-dropper ran first or second in 9 of last 10 starts, most as the favorite.
#7 DEADPAN –	Ran 1-2-3 in main track route races from his first four starts this year.
Race Summary	TUFF LUCK faded in a slow-paced allowance for Maryland breds around three turns at Timonium, but he won by 10-1/2 lengths the last time he traveled this distance at Laurel Park the last time he won in May. He gets in as the co-lightweight in the field and gets the nod for a win and place bet. Also play a 1-6-7 exacta box.

Laurel Park - Race #3

#6 QUEEN KHALEESI –	Rallied wide for share twice at this level, ran into trouble in MSW ranks last out.
#5 FEATHER WISH –	Loomed boldly on final turn, took aim at 27-1 winner but drifted in deep stretch.
#8 NOBODY’S GIRL –	Backed up on soft turn in MSW ranks, recent :48.1 workout encouraging.
Race Summary	Looks like a mid-50 Beyer speed figure could win this maiden turf route, but there are many candidates to do so. QUEEN KHALESI gets the nod after a wide, last-to-third rally two starts back at this level and a troubled MSW run for her new barn last out. Bet to win and place and play a 5, 6/1, 5, 6, 8/ALL trifecta.

Laurel Park - Race #5

#7 BIRRAVINO BLVD –	In top form, ran second off similar rest, gets class relief.
#8 BLUE MARBLE –	Monmouth invader rallied into slow pace and photo finish, worked in :35-2/5 since.
#5 FABELMAN –	Fired blank in latest but was steady check-getter before that.
Race Summary	BIRRAVINO BLVD ran second from on and off the pace in his last two starts and takes a magnified class drop in this field. He returns off a similar two-month rest before his last go-round at Penn National. Bet to win and place and play 7-5 and 7-8 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2025, 09:44 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park
PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race 1	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1.00 Bet 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5)
Maiden Claiming $17,500 • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $29,000 • Post: 12:50
(RAIL AT 66 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $17,500. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE TAPETA COURSE AT ONE MILE AND ONE SIXTEENTH)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * ANIMATED: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MCGINNIS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BIG BOB: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	ANIMATED	2/1	7/2
8	MCGINNIS	9/2	9/2
5	BIG BOB	9/5	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	MCGINNIS	8	9/2	Stalker	85	83	83.5	75.0	69.5
1	ANIMATED	1	2/1	Stalker	80	75	75.3	76.8	73.8
5	BIG BOB	5	9/5	Stalker	77	69	74.9	71.1	63.1
6	LILYS BACK	6	4/1	Trailer	70	67	55.9	67.3	58.8
3	JIMBO BAILEY	3	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	75.0	63.4	49.9
4	DISTINGUISHED GENT	4	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	65.4	55.9	47.9
2	SECRET POWER	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	62.0	56.1	42.6
7	STARSHIP MAGELLAN	7	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	48.1	60.1	49.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2025, 09:45 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lethbridge
PURCHASE

Lethbridge - Race 6	Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 63 • Purse: $6,700 • Post: 3:20P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR AB BREDS THAT HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (WINNERS OF 2 RACES AND AB BRED WINNERS OF 3 PREFERRED.).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. BRAINIAC is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DUNKIN' RUN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. BRAINIA C: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. THUNDER GOLD: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 day s.
7	DUNKIN' RUN	3/1	4/1
6	BRAINIAC	9/2	6/1
2	THUNDER GOLD	8/5	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	DUNKIN' RUN	7	3/1	Front-runner	67	70	73.5	54.0	52.0
2	THUNDER GOLD	2	8/5	Front-runner	61	61	72.0	46.0	36.5
8	AUTISM MIND	8	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	65	56	0.0	47.4	36.9
6	BRAINIAC	6	9/2	Stalker	67	60	52.5	54.6	49.6
4	MAGICAL TAP IN	4	6/1	Trailer	55	50	0.0	50.8	38.8
3	HANGIN' TUFF	3	2/1	Alternator/Trailer	67	56	36.0	52.4	43.9
5	PONCHOLIGHTSOUT	5	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	63	49	0.0	49.0	37.5
1	HOCKEYDAYINCANADA	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	66	0.0	42.6	30.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2025, 09:45 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sweetwater Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Allowance - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 79

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ACCREDITED WYOMING BRED TWO YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 MY DYNASTY 3/1
# 3 PAPAS DYNASTY 9/2
# 1 DULCE KUBATA 8/1

I think MY DYNASTY is a competitive choice. The speed rating of 76 from her last affair looks competitive in here. Has a strong record at the distance and surface, which makes me like this filly. Has been constatntly running well lately. PAPAS DYNASTY - Could provide positive gains based on formidable recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 65. The average class fig of 65 makes this horse difficult to beat. DULCE KUBATA - Must be given consideration given the class of races run recently. I can't pass on this gelding given one of the best jockey and handler combos on the grounds.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2025, 09:45 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Arapahoe Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $5200 Class Rating: 76

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD NON WINNERS OF TWO IN 2025. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 I'M A COOL CAT 5/2
# 4 EPIC DRAMA 8/1
# 5 TAPIT DOWN 4/1

I favor I'M A COOL CAT here. Will more than likely be one of the early speedsters of the group going into the midpoint of the race. Demonstrates the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 66 speed figure which is one of the best in this group. Is worth taking a close look at and may be a bet - strong Speed Figures (64 average) at today's distance and surface lately. EPIC DRAMA - Looks very good against this field and will most likely be one of the leaders. This group is much softer than the last one he ran against. TAPIT DOWN - Recent numbers for the jock - 20 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this field. Is hard not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been very strong - 67 avg - of late.