Wednesday 10/1/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2025, 06:10 AM

Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Sha Tin | October 1, 2025

September 30, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

A special midweek card at Sha Tin awaits bettors this week to celebrate the 76th Anniversary of the Founding of the People’s Republic of China. While I am admittedly unfamiliar with the local festivities, or whether anybody will eat 70.5 hot dogs in ten minutes, I am familiar with the full fields and huge pools in Hong Kong. The National Day Cup (G3) highlights this card, and hopefully we can highlight some winners along the way.

Helpful Resources

Sha Tin – October 1
HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...se=ST&RaceNo=1

Race 1 | 1400M | Class 5 (All-Weather)

Win – #4 WINDICATOR FAMILY
Grade: A

Notes: WINDICATOR FAMILY is looking to bounce back from a brutal trip in his last try at Sha Tin also going seven furlongs. He was buried on the rail and boxed in unable to find any open lane until there was under a furlong to go. Once he found an opening, he still had plenty of run but no track left. My numbers paint this gelding as a consistently above par runner who just seems to struggle to put it all together. His biggest foe here, CASHICASH, is winless in Hong Kong even after getting a dream trip in his last run to open this season. WINDICATOR FAMILY doesn’t have a stellar record when it comes to winning races, but he’s going to pick up Zac Purton and get a better draw for his stalking style in the eighth post. I like his chances to open the card at Sha Tin.

Race 3 | 1200M | Class 5

Win – #6 RAGNARR
Quinella – 6 w/ 5,11
Grade: B

Notes: If the pace makes the race, I like to think we’ve got a good trip lined up for my top choice RAGNARR who is seeking his first win in Hong Kong. I’m expecting a group of between two and four runners to really gun for early pressure, and RAGNARR to be sitting three-to-four lengths back waiting to pounce. He gets a decent draw in the fifth spot and picks up, you guessed it, Zac Purton. This gelding is trending in the right direction and debuted showing some quality to start the new season. With a tune-up race in the books, I think he’s ready to finally break through. Given the pace scenario, I like a couple of others to be in the mix. NOBLE DELUXE rates very highly in my model with some solid speed figures in his recent races. If any of the “lead” horses are in the mix late, I expect him to be the one. MODEST GENTLEMAN is my off-the-pace pick to make a Quinella appearance from the outside.

Race 6 | 1400M | Class 4

Win – #5 VICTORY CHAMPION
Exacta Box – 3 w/ 5
Grade: A

Notes: VICTORY CHAMPION has just one start in Hong Kong, finishing a neck short of GROOVY FEELING in a Class 4 bout going six furlongs on a yielding course. GROOVY FEELING is the 9/5 Morning Line favorite in Race 4 on this card in a race I’m not interested in betting against him in. I think VICTORY CHAMPION’s inexperience is largely to blame for his 10/1 Morning Line, but I’m willing to bet the extra two furlongs and a better track condition play in this gelding’s favor. I expect to feel discouraged when the gate opens and he gets boxed in from the rail but remember the six-length gap he closed on a wet course in his first start and then add two extra furlongs for him to stretch out and blow by this field. I’m going to play him to win outright and box him in an Exacta with INVINCIBLE IBIS, a lightly raced four-year-old who will be picking up Zac Purton and is expected to take another big step forward.

Race 7 | 1000M | National Day Cup (G3)

Win – #5 FAST NETWORK
Longshot Flyer - #8 BABY CRYSTAL
Exacta – 5 w/ 4
Quinella – 5 w/ 7,8
Grade: B

Notes: The Group 3 National Day Cup is the highlight on this midweek card, and while the field only drew eight, they are a closely competitive group presenting bettors with a chance to snag a good price. WUNDERBAR is certainly deserving of his Morning Line favorite designation, but he has been on the bench since June, and his competition has mostly been raced already this season. I think WUNDERBAR is certainly destined for continued success, but there’s a window here to take a shot against him. BABY CRYSTAL has been on rest since coming up lame in his near win in January going six furlongs but looked very sharp in his most recent barrier trial. His numbers paint a picture of a very talented horse heading into his seven-year-old campaign. Not to mention, BABY CRYSTAL will only be carrying 115 pounds with Britney Wong in the irons. That drastic of a weight difference in a short field gives me some added reason to take a flyer and include this gelding in the Quinella. BOTTOMUPTOGETHER faded in the last two hundred meters in his tune-up race to start this season at Class 1, and at a Morning Line of 21/1 I’m willing to include him on the Quinella as well with a cut in distance and a favorable draw. Top choice, FAST NETWORK, should be set up with at least half of the field trying to go gate-to-wire. He’s going to have to make his move a bit earlier than he’s used to, going from six to five furlongs, but he looked sharp in his season debut at seven furlongs on a yielding course. I expect him to defend his spot on the rail enough to have a window he can fire through over the last two hundred meters to nose by the crowd and take home a trophy.

Race 8 | 1400M | Class 2

Win – #1 HONG LOK GOLF
Grade: A – Most Likely Winner

Notes: This horse wins races. My numbers love him. He’s six-for-seven lifetime, winning four straight from any combination of having the lead, off the lead, going a mile, going seven furlongs, he just wins. I thought about getting cute with the exotics, and please feel free to, but let’s keep it simple and cash one.

Race 9 | 1200M | Class 3

Win – #10 ONE MORE
Quinella – 10 w/ 1,5
Grade: A

Notes: This South African gelding, ONE MORE, had an underwhelming start to his Hong Kong career, but after a summer off he came back in a barrier trial on the all-weather surface and appeared much sharper. He broke from the sixth post in his trial and quickly overtook for a lead he never lost. From his draw on the rail, he’s going to need to make his move early, but he seems capable of holding on for the distance if he can do so. At a Morning Line of 11/1, I think he’s a solid play for the price and my numbers agree. He will have some tough competitors in HAROLD WIN and SIX PACK, but SIX PACK will have a significant weight disadvantage after two disappointments in Class 2 and NEW FUTURE FOLKS doesn’t seem to particularly like going just six furlongs.

Good luck!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2025, 06:11 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#1 Intricity	Barn sent a couple of nice winners here from just three starters last month including a maiden runner, and the only one who lost from that trio finished well back of her winning barn mate in the Grade II here...so I'm inclined to think this one will be live by default right now here.
#4 Hen Party	She has an appealing pedigree for this and brings what looks like a forward enough series of works to this one. Get a look at both of these -- guessing one of them will land it out of the box.
#6 Sun Kiss	There is some pedigree here to be a bit more dynamic than what he showed in a couple of Saratoga starts, but she hasn't found much but a little bit of brief chasing pace in those tries. Could wake up quickly, but demand a fair price.
Race Summary	Intricity and Hen Party don't appear to be meeting a whole lot on paper when looking at their more experienced counterparts, so this one looks ready for a fresh face -- hoping the price up top will be just a touch better?

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#8 Rachael's Wagon	He stuck around until midstretch with a stronger group at Oaklawn when last seen in April, and he might find a pretty decent spot near the top from the wide draw while getting on synthetic footing for the first time.
#5 Incredible	Not sure what to do here, because his form suggested he might hammer that Belterra group last time out, but he was a no-show at 80 cents on the dollar. Something like the Horseshoe Indianapolis tries might do the trick here, but at what price?
#3 King Reigert	He's got a chance to wake up here while dropping after the ambitious rise into special weight company off the claim last time out, and he's another who has the speed to be in position turning for home. Logical, but I'm not that enthusiastic.
Race Summary	Rachael's Wagon seems to find a softer group than she saw in some of those previous runs in Arkansas and Louisiana, and that little bit of pace she showed last time out may serve her well from the high draw.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#8 Tovia	Never know which horse is going to show up, but she managed a pretty solid effort last out at 67/1, and she will probably offer another appealing enough price while players wonder if she can back it up...which she rarely does. I'll bite still.
#6 Grosse Ile	She makes a lot of sense after a pretty nice first try against winners and first start over the local footing. She draws outside the other speed and might be able to force the issue today.
#4 Queen Atlas	I don't know. She's a pretty steep dropper who has never seen a group like this, but without any previous ability to get past horses, she's likely to be hustling with the top choice breathing down her neck the whole way. I'm already swinging a bit here -- will let her beat me with form I don't trust and would only be using defensively.
Race Summary	Tovia outran her price last time out, and I think she's still going to offer a good number on the board today. Hoping a couple of the pace players hook up early and leave her in a perfect spot to get towed into it turning for home.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2025, 06:11 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#1 HOME INVASION (9-2)	At proper level, can make maximum use of speed from the rail in this spot.
#7 PARLAY FOR DESTINY (10-1)	Could be slowed by pace again, but could make gimmick wagers pay.
#4 MAGIC PASS (8-1)	Finished second three time in last five starts at less than 2-1 odds.
Race Summary	HOME INVASION bid to a brief lead on the final turn in his last two main-track route races. He sat a perfect trip two back but was out-kicked by Myluckeyvalentine, who romped on the front end last Saturday in a $7,500/nw3 route. He tired badly in the Colonial Downs stretch last out but held third. He can be the target in a field that lacks speed. Bet to win and place and play a 1-4-7 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #3

#4 NICKY JOLENE (10-1)	Steady check-getter worth a price shot to end long winless drought.
#10 SEA SHANTY (3-1)	Rallied into photo-finish view in 3 of 4 grass routes this year.
#13 SWEET MARIE (10-1)	Led at stretch call in first two turf routes with blinkers on.
Race Summary	Throw a blanket over this field of turf routers in search of a second victory. NICKY JOLENE’s string of five consecutive in-the-money finishes at this level ended last out. But despite a 1-for-23 record, she has tactical speed, usually runs around a 60 Beyer and is 10-1 on the morning line, making her worth a win and place bet. Also play a 4-10-13 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#6 SOUTHERN LADY (6-1)	Barn can get ‘em ready, as recent workouts indicate.
#2 MEATBALLSFORARIES (4-1)	Distant second in two heavily-bet dirt sprints at this level.
#8 C’EST CHOUETTE (5-2)	Exits MSW company, changes surfaces for 23-percent second-out barn.
Race Summary	SOUTHERN LADY shows a fastest-of-54 workout and a :48-1/5 move from the Monmouth gate for a sharp barn with first-time starters. Her dam was unraced but her sire, Midshipman, ranks No. 11 in North America this year with 2-year-old progeny earnings of nearly $1 million. Bet to win and place and play 6-2 and 6-8 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2025, 06:12 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ajax Downs
PURCHASE

Ajax Downs - Race 7	Win/ Place/ Show/ Exactor/ Triactor/ Superfecta
Speed Index • 220 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $9,500 • Post: 3:37P
QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WITH AN AVERAGE SPEED INDEX OF 85 AND UNDER OR WITH A SPEED INDEX THAT HAS NEVER BEEN BETTER THAN 90.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * BODHI: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. A RUSHN LILLY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. IVY LEAGUE SUG ARBABY: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. JEZZABELLA: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MARYLAND MAGIC: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4	BODHI	3/1	6/1
2	A RUSHN LILLY	7/1	6/1
3	IVY LEAGUE SUGARBABY	4/1	7/1
6	JEZZABELLA	10/1	8/1
5	MARYLAND MAGIC	5/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	MY ROYAL PRIZE	1	15/1	Slow	63	60	7.2	0.0	0.0
2	A RUSHN LILLY	2	7/1	Average	82	72	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	IVY LEAGUE SUGARBABY	3	4/1	Slow	73	73	6.8	0.0	0.0
4	BODHI	4	3/1	Average	80	75	3.6	0.0	0.0
5	MARYLAND MAGIC	5	5/1	Slow	74	67	9.0	0.0	0.0
6	JEZZABELLA	6	10/1	Average	75	69	5.0	0.0	0.0
7	ICE WITCH	7	9/2	Fast	70	69	0.0	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2025, 06:12 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park
PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race 5	$1 Double / $1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 5-7) .50 LATE Pick 5 (Races 5-9 15% takeout)
Claiming $25,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $26,000 • Post: 2:53P
(PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 1, 2025 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. DELAWARE BRED CLAIMING PRICE $30,000. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT NOT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE AND ONE SIXTEENTH).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * SPECIALAGENTJONSON: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ROUNDTOP: Horse ran ks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CURAHEE: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FREEDOM STANCE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. PASSPORT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
8	SPECIALAGENTJONSON	12/1	4/1
2	ROUNDTOP	6/1	7/1
7	CURAHEE	2/1	9/1
6	FREEDOM STANCE	1/1	9/1
13	PASSPORT	20/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
11	SURPRISE PACKAGE	11	8/1	Front-runner	85	87	95.4	78.6	61.6
7	CURAHEE	7	2/1	Front-runner	89	83	90.0	87.6	78.1
5	COUNTRY CHARLIE	5	20/1	Front-runner	86	75	83.8	71.8	52.3
12	WARRIOR WAYNE	12	8/1	Front-runner	96	68	81.4	77.4	63.9
3	MAGIC MOVER	3	12/1	Front-runner	82	78	72.4	79.0	61.5
10	GREEN BEANS	10	15/1	Alternator/Front-runner	83	85	73.0	74.9	56.4
6	FREEDOM STANCE	6	1/1	Stalker	89	89	73.0	82.6	67.1
14	AUDEN	14	15/1	Stalker	67	69	51.2	65.4	42.4
9	NOTTURNO	9	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	74	87.2	76.8	61.8
2	ROUNDTOP	2	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	95	75	60.4	83.2	73.7
8	SPECIALAGENTJONSON	8	12/1	Trailer	90	91	68.6	84.8	76.3
13	PASSPORT	13	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	92	81	86.0	77.8	65.8
1	STREET ROCKIN	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	82	71.6	68.8	55.8
4	TAVERN TIME	4	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	82	77	66.6	70.9	55.9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2025, 06:13 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13800 Class Rating: 79

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 VIKING WARRIOR 5/2
# 2 BOLT TO RUN 2/1
# 1 TOWN KISSER 8/1

I give the nod to VIKING WARRIOR here. This gelding has been constatntly running well in his latest outings. Has garnered reliable Equibase Speed Figures in dirt route races in the past. Worrie has been hot the last month, winning at a nifty 28 percent rate. BOLT TO RUN - His 71 average has this colt with among the top Equibase Speed Figures in here. Has very strong Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of horses - worth a look. TOWN KISSER - Could best this group of horses based on the Equibase speed fig - 68 - of his last contest. Is a sharp contender based on numbers put up lately under today's conditions.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2025, 06:13 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #8 - Post: 3:53pm - SO - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#5 LADY SRIRACHA (ML=6/1)
#1 PHABULOUS PHOEBE (ML=3/1)
#3 MILDOON (ML=5/1)
#8 SILVER CITY KITTY (ML=6/1)

LADY SRIRACHA - I like to play this handicapping theory, a pony coming back off a sharp race within the last 30 days. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a come back. PHABULOUS PHOEBE - When this rider and handler work together you have to take a look. Torres and McClellan have been fabulous together. MILDOON - She keeps getting closer at the finish with each and every start. The 74 latest race speed fig looks sound in the TrackMaster PPs. Horse has improved at least 2 speed fig points in last two races. I look for that positive trend to continue in this event. SILVER CITY KITTY - This filly should get an ideal trip in this spot. She looks like the only 'stalker' in this event. Have to make this filly a contender; she comes off a sharp contest on Sep 15th. After the race aboard this equine on Sep 15th, the jockey is going to 'know' the filly much better. I usually like playing sprint horses who are 3-4 races into a come back. Earnings per race is something that I believe can be a vital handicapping factor. This horse is ranked number one in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 GOLDEN PHILLY (ML=4/1), #7 CARA BLANCA (ML=6/1), #2 WESTERN WOMAN (ML=6/1),

GOLDEN PHILLY - This filly garnered a speed figure in her last contest which probably isn't good enough in today's event. CARA BLANCA - Probably won't make much of an impact this time. WESTERN WOMAN - In any event of 6 1/2 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been looking good in sprint affairs recently. Doubtful for this questionable contender to do much this time around. The long breather is a troublesome sign.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - PHABULOUS PHOEBE - I enjoy investing on big class droppers like this one. Much easier field this time around.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 LADY SRIRACHA to win if we can get at least 5/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2025, 06:13 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11500 Class Rating: 69

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 WILD ROVER LADY (IRE) 9/5
# 1 LIAR FOR HIRE 8/1
# 8 ST BERNADETTE 4/1

I think WILD ROVER LADY (IRE) is a very good choice. Shows signs of the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 50 speed figure which is one of the strongest in this group. Has to be given a shot - I like the numbers from the last outing. LIAR FOR HIRE - Is tough not to consider based on speed figs which have been solid - 55 avg - of late. This filly with Oliveros in the saddle makes her a solid choice. ST BERNADETTE - Appears to have a very strong class edge based on the latest company kept. Corderolopez has this filly racing well and is a competitive pick based on the strong Speed Figures earned in sprint races recently.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-01-2025, 06:13 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race #7 - Post: 3:35pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#3 M'LADY SANSA (ML=8/1)
#1 SEVEN EMMYS (ML=5/1)

M'LADY SANSA - Taking a trip to a lower level; has the class to make her presence felt. Ranked number one in EPS (earnings per start). Another indication that this horse is the class of the race. SEVEN EMMYS - Atop this entrant on September 18th and Sosa is right back in the irons today. Morey brings her back again. I advise you stay with this strong filly. Ranked number one in earnings per start (EPS). Another confirmation that this horse is the class of the field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 SHE'S GOTTA GO (ML=5/2), #10 BIRDIEJUICE (ML=7/2), #2 COTE FLEURIE (ML=9/2),

SHE'S GOTTA GO - Hard to play any first-time-starter when the sire has a win percentage of only 3 pct. BIRDIEJUICE - Had to show me much more than that last out. Never made much of an impact. COTE FLEURIE - Awfully tough to invest in this horse when she hasn't been showing any signs of life of late.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - M'LADY SANSA - I play this angle all the time. Top TrackMaster Power Rating and morning line odds of at least 5/1.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #3 M'LADY SANSA on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

Wednesday 10/1/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 10/1/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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