Saturday 10/4/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-02-2025, 07:11 AM

Race of the Week: Santa Anita's American Pharoah Stakes

October 1, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The 2-year-olds take center stage nationally this week with the Champagne in New York, the Breeders' Futurity in Kentucky and the Grade 1 $300,000 American Pharoah in California. Santa Anita's Saturday card runs 5 stakes deep and the American Pharoah looks to springboard the Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner for the second straight year and seventh time in the last dozen seasons.

Horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET be sure to take advantage of the Breeders' Cup Bankroll series of promotional races that includes Saturday's American Pharoah Stakes. Bet $25 on this race and earn a $5 wagering credit that goes into your account on Breeders' Cup Friday (Oct. 31). There are 12 races in the promotion between Oct. 3 and 26.

Field Depth:
DESERT GATE is the field's lone graded stakes winner to date, scoring at the Grade 3 level and also is Grade 1-placed. CIVIL LIBERTY is Grade 1-placed, while PLUTARCH has placed at the Grade 3 level. While class is subjective with lightly raced 2-year-olds, DESERT GATE has kept the deepest strength of schedule.

Pace:
With 4 stretchout sprinters, you can expect a solid pace over 1-1/16 miles, but this likely won't blister. How fast CIVIL LIBERTY goes could be key as Bob Baffert trainees KIRSTOFFERSON, BALBOA and DESERT GATE aren't likely to duel one another into submission as that barn eyes a 14th win in the American Pharoah and fifth straight.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-DESERT GATE: Santa Anita debut winner in June added the Grade 3 Best Pal at Del Mar and was a game second to barnmate Brant in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity after a rocky trip. Omaha Beach colt lures Juan Hernandez, who had ridden the 3 other Bafferts in at least one prior start. Not the flashiest workhorse on video at 1st.tv going into the Del Mar Futurity or coming out, so not able to glean any hint to if he's progressing or peaking ... but was not wow'd like most often you are around Baffert drills. Every chance to get his Grade 1 here without Del Mar Futurity-winning stablemate Brant taking this step with him, and plenty of pedigree for more, though he doesn't have any edges on BRIS late pace figures and that last race could have taken a bit out of him. He'll need to be forward throughout for his best shot.

#2-INTREPIDO: Jeff Mullins trainee turned heads in a Del Mar 1-mile MSW victory and beat a couple Bafferts there, including Provenance, a son of champion Monomoy Girl who returned to win at next asking. Big 101 BRIS late pace figure in the last is a great sign, as is the fact that this son of Maximus Mischief brought a gaudy $385K price tag at the 2YO sale this spring and is the kind you expect an immediate return on investment. Capable X-factor to bring down the Baffert foursome and jockey Hector Berrios got off to a quick start at the SA meet.

#3-PLUTARCH: Maiden has been a late-running second in a pair of 2-turn miles, no match for Intrepido on dirt (when he had a superb gallop-out) and then a good second on grass in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf. Regally bred Into Mischief-Stellar Wind hasn't come with fanfare at 9-1 and 5-1 in prior starts and loses Hernandez to Desert Gate here. Kazushi Kimura takes the reins. Get Her Number did win the 2020 American Pharoah coming off a turf prep.

#4-CIVIL LIBERTY: Doug O'Neill's 0-2 colt by Independence Hall was a modest third in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity at 15-1 odds. He must make up more than 3 lengths on Desert Game, not to mention the other new challenges, but is bred for distance. Even-running sprinter didn't buckle in either start, and might be one-paced enough to like the route. The barn has won this race twice, including with champion and eventual Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist.

#5-BALBOA: Baffert's rank outside of the field, he pressed and faded to fifth in the Del Mar Futurity at 28-1 and likely contributes to the pace even with blinkers being removed. Hernandez and Kimura both land on other stablemates as Umberto Rispoli picks up the call for the first time. Pedigree and BRIS late pace figures indicate the route distance should be a huge obstacle vs. these.

#6-KRISTOFFERSON: Only of the 4 Baffert entrants coming out of the maiden ranks. Note since 2014, Baffert is 10: 1-3-1 with maiden risers in the American Pharoah, while a dominant 13: 6-2-1 with those exiting stakes preps. This one's big 90 Beyer Speed Figure is going to take money as 1:08-4/5 Del Mar debut buzzsaws won't find any shadows. Hernandez jumps to the stakes-experienced Desert Gate, but Mike Smith deputizes and he and Baffert teamed last week to upset the Grade 1 Goodwood with Nevada Beach. This $1.1 million colt is by 2015 American Pharoah winner Nyquist and his 96 BRIS late pace figure indicates there's more in the tank. Legit threat even on the rise.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
INTREPIDO at 6-1 morning line and the fourth choice in the projections offers a lot to like. With Baffert's best 2YO Brant sitting this one out, this Jeff Mullins rep is in with a real chance.

Best Longshot Contender:
INTREPIDO at 6-1 morning line and the fourth choice in the projections offers a lot to like. With Baffert's best 2YO Brant sitting this one out, this Jeff Mullins rep is in with a real chance.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win INTREPIDO. $15 exacta box INTREPIDO and KRISTOFFERSON ($30). $5 exacta box INTREPIDO and PLUTARCH ($10).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-02-2025, 07:11 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saturday’s Frizette from Belmont at Aq

September 29, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

No single race has had more impact on the Breeders’ Cup than the Frizette Stakes. No less than 15 winners of the Juvenile Fillies last-prepped in the Frizette, most of any springboard to the championships (1 more than Keeneland’s Spinster). Saturday in New York, the Frizette takes its place 4 weeks from the Breeders’ Cup on a card that includes the Discovery, Grade 2 Jockey Club Derby Invitational, Grade 1 Champagne and Grade 2 Miss Grillo.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Frizette (Race 6):

#1-JETTY’S HOME: First of 3 Saffie Joseph Jr. trainees entered, this one has been second or third in all 3 maiden starts to date. Bullet workout at Saratoga on the Oklahoma training track since her Aug. 21 Spa runner-up as the favorite. Enticed filly brought just a $2,000 sales price as a yearling.

#2-CARMEL COAST: Smashing Saratoga debut winner August 10 by 5-1/2 lengths, spread-eagling the field that included Frizette rival Lovely Christina. This $120,000 yearling buy by Omaha Beach has 5 well-spaced works since the unveiling and will have Kendrick Carmouche back aboard for Whit Beckman. Dam Carmel Beauty is full-sister to Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks and Grade 1 E.P. Taylor winner Arravale and may eventually find the turf.

#3-RILEYTOLE: Gulfstream debut winner for Saffie Joseph Jr. tested the NYRA waters when a distant third of 7 in Saratoga’s Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes on August 30. The $50,000 yearling buy by champion sprinter Mitole has worked twice in Saratoga for the move downstate. Regular rider Reylu Gutierrez will be aboard.

#4-RINA’S REVENGE: New York-bred debut winner rolled late and drew off to score over 6 furlongs August 28 at Saratoga. Leaves the state-bred ranks and partners with jockey Chris Elliott for the first time. The Kenny McPeek trainee is from the first crop to race by Grade 1-winning sprint sire Yaupon, which already includes Astoria / Prairie Gold Lassie winner Sassy C W.

#5-SECANE: Third Saffie Joseph Jr. entrant dominated her Gulfstream Park debut August 15 by 7-3/4 lengths in wire-to-wire fashion. The $67,000 yearling buy by Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Audible has worked 3 times at Palm Meadows since. South Florida pilot Edgard Zayas makes the road trip.

#6-IRON ORCHARD: New York-bred steamrolled both state-bred casts in her path at Saratoga, a July 3 maiden cast and the Seeking the Ante Stakes on August 22. Jockey Joel Rosario won back-to-back Frizettes in 2018 (Jayhawk) and 2019 (Wicked Whisper). Trainer Danny Gargan is getting an immediate return out of the ready-made $500,000 Ocala April 2025 juvenile buy who sold for $78,000 as a yearling. She’s from the second crop to race by 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, whose initial crop included April’s Wood Memorial winner Rodriguez over this Big A surface.

#7-CHOPSTICKS: $300,000 daughter of multiple Eclipse Award winner Essential Quality has won both starts for trainer Brad Cox, who also conditioned her sire. Ellis Park Debutante winner leaves Kentucky for the first time, but not before a bullet workout at Churchill Downs in preparation. Regular rider Florent Geroux has the call. Dam Miss Southern Miss was runner-up in Del Mar’s Grade 2 Sorrento as a 2-year-old.

#8-ICECREAMFOREVRYONE: Debut runner-up at Saratoga overcame a rough start to narrowly miss with a late rally. Todd Pletcher turns to Luis Saez here as Irad Ortiz Jr. will be riding at Keeneland on Saturday. Sire Gun Runner was responsible for 2021 Frizette winner Echo Zulu, while dam Curlina was second in the Grade 2 Vagrancy as a primary sprinter.

#9-FIVE BARS: Trainer Shug McGaughey is a 5-time Frizette winner, including the legendary Personal Ensign in 1986, and aims for his first victory here since 2002. Five Bars rallied from last of 7 following a disastrous start in her debut to win. Joel Rosario hops off to ride Iron Orchard as Manny Franco takes over the mount. From the first crop to race by sire Maxfield, who has Del Mar stakes winner Max Ciao and promising Churchill maiden romper Englishman already on his ledger. McGaughey has trained 4 straight generations of this female family.

#10-STEER CLEAR: Second-start Saratoga maiden breaker delivered as the 9-5 favorite on August 29 in wire-to-wire fashion. Todd Pletcher aims for a fifth Frizette victory, most recently with Chocolate Gelato (2022). Ricardo Santana Jr. piloted 2021 Frizette winner Echo Zulu. Steer Clear is a $575,000 yearling purchase by 2007 by Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. Half-sister to $500,000-earning Fore Left, who won a pair of domestic stakes at age 2 and the UAE Two Thousand Guineas at 3.

#11-LOVELY CHRISTINA: Todd Pletcher’s second chance at a fifth Frizette crown, like Steer Clear she followed her Saratoga debut second with a maiden victory at next asking. $425,000 Ocala March buy as a 2-year-old was no match for Frizette rival Carmel Coast in their mutual unveilings. Jockey Junior Alvarado won the Frizette in 2020 (Dayhoutoftheoffice) and 2023 (Just F Y I). Daughter of Vekoma is out of 6-time stakes winner Daring Kathy, who excelled on turf.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2025, 06:21 AM

Jeremy Plonk: 18 Stakes in 18 Sentences | Sat 10/4

October 2, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

Load up the passenger car as we’ve got another 18 stakes this Saturday with Breeders’ Cup intrigue and betting opportunities. It’s time for the express across North America and bottom-line decisions.

12:41 pm ET | Belmont at the Big A: Race 2 | $125,000 Discovery Stakes

Last year’s star Florida-bred juvenile #3 Rated By Merit returns from 10 months away now under elite trainer Chad Brown vs. just 4 rivals that simply don’t offer much opposition.

1:43 pm ET | Belmont at the Big A: Race 4 | $500,000 Jockey Club Derby Invitational

#2 Asbury Park has the top route pedigree and top BRIS late pace figure on turf, both feathers in his cap over 11 furlongs when meeting more ballyhooed Chad Brown barnmate #4 Hill Road.

2:49 pm ET | Belmont at the Big A: Race 6 | $400,000 Frizette Stakes

#2 Carmel Coast could run away from these early, and while her biggest late threat figures to come from #9 Five Bars, I don’t think she comes back to them on the easy stretch-out around 1 turn.

3:20 pm ET | Belmont at the Big A: Race 7 | $500,000 Champagne Stakes

As dominant as #6 It’s Our Time was in his debut, he’s been babied on the workout tab since, causing some concern and leaving the door peeked open for Hopeful alumni #1 Curtain Call and longshot #5 Aye Eye to do some late damage.

3:28 pm ET | Woodbine: Race 5 | $250,000 Nearctic Stakes

#5 Bring Theband Home has been blistering-fast at Saratoga this summer, but tanked in this race last year and #4 The Strikin Viking deserves an upset look for an international barn that shipped here to win the Singspiel Stakes last month.

3:40 pm ET | Keeneland: Race 6 | $400,000 Woodford Stakes

The rail and Keeneland course has been good in the past to #1 Arrest Me Red for local turf sprint ace trainer Wesley Ward, and this one may get first jump on the deep-closing Euro raider #8 Khaadem.

3:51 pm ET | Belmont at the Big A: Race 8 | $200,000 Miss Grillo Stakes

Chad Brown’s 9 wins in this 2-year-old turf filly stakes speak volumes and #9 Deep Learning is way better than a paceless Natalma Stakes at Woodbine allowed her to show.

4:12 pm ET | Keeneland: Race 7 | $400,000 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes

Race favorites #5 Vahva and defending champ #8 Zeitlos haven’t been at their very best, so the consistent, veteran longshot #1 Taxed gets to play “The Price is Right.”

4:40 pm ET | Santa Anita: Race 2 | $100,000 Chillingworth Stakes

#3 Tamara hasn’t been able to stay healthy, but the daughter of superstar Beholder is working exceptionally well on video at 1st.tv for trainer Richard Mandella and will be interesting to watch while likely a major tote underlay.

4:44 pm ET | Keeneland: Race 8 | $800,000 First Lady Stakes

Chad Brown has won this stakes 7 years running and has #5 Dynamic Pricing and #9 Segesta (preferred of the pair), but my choice #1 Choisya tallied the Jenny Wiley in the Spring ... and Saratoga summer cut-backs like her have excelled in this highly competitive race over the years.

5:03 pm ET | Santa Anita: Race 3 | $300,000 American Pharoah Stakes

Trainer Bob Baffert has won this race 13 times (4 straight) and has 4 of the 7 entrants, but I was most impressed by the 2-turn ability and finishing zip by Jeff Mullins’ #2 Intrepido, who gets the upset tab.

5:07 pm ET | Woodbine: Race 8 | $200,000 Dance Smartly Stakes

#6 Caitlinhergrtness has been better on the Tapeta than turf throughout her career, so I’ll swing against this favorite with #7 Hope Mission in what appears to be interesting spotting by shrewd Keeneland trainer Brendan Walsh.

5:16 pm ET | Keeneland: Race 9 | $650,000 Breeders’ Futurity

Favorites are a strong 5-11 since this race returned to dirt, and Todd Pletcher’s 3 wins during that span figure to get some company if #6 Ted Noffey runs anything close to his Hopeful Stakes effort as the solid chalk.

5:41 pm ET | Woodbine: Race 9 | $750,000 Canadian International Stakes

Even-money on 2023 Canadian International winner #10 Nations Pride feels too risky given his up-and-down campaign, but #1 Haunted Dream was sharp in the local prep after traveling from overseas and is one of a scant few here that look like 12 furlongs is achievable.

6:20 pm ET | Keeneland: Race 10 | $1,250,000 Turf Mile Stakes

Three superb, Group 1-proven Europeans team with local riders and will be very tough to tackle, led by top pick #4 Diego Velazquez over #12 Jonquil and #5 Woodshauna.

7:38 pm ET | Santa Anita: Race 8 | $200,000 Rodeo Drive Stakes

Graham Motion shipped 2 different eastern raiders to win Del Mar’s Yellow Ribbon and Mabee, so the west may be susceptible again to out of towners #3 Speed Shopper (Will Walden), #4 Long Ago (Bill Morey) and #7 Amber Cascade (Mike Maker), the latter my top choice.

8:08 pm ET | Santa Anita: Race 9 | $200,000 Oak Leaf Stakes

Maiden #1 Banzai Betty blew the start from the rail and didn’t figure this racing thing out until the quarter-pole, but exploded late (97 BRIS late pace figure) with a pedigree to want more on a confident class rise.

8:38 pm ET | Santa Anita: Race 10 | $100,000 Speakeasy Stakes

Wesley Ward flopped in this race last year with a 3-10 favorite on the road, and while #1 Schwarzenegger and #8 Bacio likely will be heavily backed here, I’ll turn to eye-catching debut winner #6 Ventry Strand off a huge rally and gallop-out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2025, 06:21 AM

Scott Shapiro: Keeneland's Saturday All-Stakes Pick 5

October 2, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

The Keeneland fall meet is nearly upon us, which means a massive Saturday afternoon card that includes five graded stakes, three Breeders’ Cup win and you’re in events, and an all-stakes Pick 5 that kicks off in Race 6. For those that get to go, I am jealous. Let’s see if we can’t beat a few favorites in this all-stakes sequence and have an enjoyable day wagering on one of the nicest venues American racing has to offer.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 6: Woodford (G2)
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7 Governor Sam; 8 Khadeem
Backups: 5 Doncho; 3 Joe Shiesty

Forecast: This 5.5-furlong dash over the Keeneland grass came up competitive. I will use a pair of runners as my top horses, including top pick #7 Governor Sam. Admittedly, I am slightly concerned that we might have seen the best from this George Weaver trainee, but he projects to get a perfect trip on the cutback after going a furlong further in the Franklin-Simpson (G1) at Kentucky Downs last month. He draws beautifully outside the main speeds and has a win already over this surface. I also like #8 Khadeem. The late running 9YO gelding hit the board in the Turf Sprint (G2) at Kentucky Downs for the second consecutive year. This time the Charlie Hills trainee stays in the States and tries the Keeneland turf for the first time in his career. He should be rolling late. #3 Joe Shiesty and #5 Doncho are likely to compromise each other’s chances on the front end, but if one breaks poorly the other is highly capable of taking this group gate-to-wire.

Race 7: TCA (G2)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Taxed; 6 Praying
Backups: None

Forecast: This is far from the strongest edition of the Thoroughbred Club of America, but I am hopeful it is a race I remember from a wagering perspective. #5 Vahva was made the heavy 7-5-ML favorite by oddsmaker Nick Tammaro and understandably so. The $2M earner has had a great career. That said, she is not the same mare she once was making her tough to get excited about wagering on. I will try to beat her with a pair of big prices. #1 Taxed cut back to a true sprint last out in the Open Mind and rode the rail into the lane, but was stopped and cost all chance to win. She certainly has to get back to her faster races to get to the wire first, but she meets a field without any world beaters. I think an improved effort should be expected from the Randy Morse trainee. #6 Praying is much different. She does not have the resume or experience of Taxed, but really put it altogether last out in the Prioress (G3). Regression is certainly within the range of outcomes, but a repeat puts the 3YO filly in the mix at a good price.

Race 8: First Lady (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3 Nanda Dea; 10 Ozara; 2 Raqiya
Backups: 7 Heredia; 1 Choisya; 13 Special Wan

Forecast: This one-mile Grade 1 for the ladies has been won by trainer Chad Brown in seven consecutive years. Brown has two entered this year, but I will try to beat lukewarm ML favorite #5 Dynamic Pricing and #9 Segesta with a number of rivals, including long shot top choice #3 Nanda Dea. No doubt it is concerning that the Nacho Correas IV trainee has not competed since a pair of wins in her first two North American starts. If she was a short price, I would probably look elsewhere, but Correas is retiring at the end of this year and moving to his home of Argentina. He has worked this mare regularly locally dating back to the start of August without missing a beat. It feels like this is his last big shot, so my hypothesis is this gal is ready to roll off the layoff. The fact Jose Ortiz is back to ride and she draws favorably along the inside both should work to her advantage. Hopefully, she outruns her odds.

Race 9: Breeders’ Futurity (G1)
Grade: X
Main Ticket: 6 Ted Noffey
Backups: None

Forecast: I am swinging against the favorites in the first three legs, but I have zero desire trying to beat #6 Ted Noffey. The Spendthrift Farm colt ran well on debut and then took a huge step forward in his win in the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga. He has to answer the two-turn question and run outside of New York for the first time, but he looks like a serious one for trainer Todd Pletcher.

Race 10: Turf Mile (G1)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Program Trading; 10 Brilliant Berti
Backups: 4 Diego Velazquez; 9 Rhetorical

Forecast: The pace should be honest in this $1.25M race at one mile over the lawn, which should benefit both of my top horses in the final leg. #8 Program Trading makes his second start off a long layoff for trainer Chad Brown. The 5YO son of Lope De Vega ran well to finish second beaten just a neck in his return race at Saratoga. #1 Donegal Momentum held him off that day, but the circumstances are almost certain to be much different on Saturday. The Klaravich Stables ridgling appears poised for a big effort from off the pace. #10 Brilliant Berti has not had things his way very often of late. The Klein Racing runner needs to avoid a wide voyage from his outside draw, but should get a favorable race shape for his off the pace style. Expect him to be finishing with serious energy under Jose Ortiz after racing against the flow last out at Kentucky Downs.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2025, 01:59 PM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

October 4, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

Northfield Park has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EDT)

1-Cruising Zone (5/2)-Won at Dela in last and has finished 1st or 2nd in races at ScD. Recent form has been too good to ignore and with this post draw is a main player.
5-Woodrow Blue Chip (9-1)-Justine Irving may not get the top off the car but he should get a very good seat. If the Ryan Miller trainee races near the top of the stack the 9-1 shot should be in the mix at the line.
7-Unique Catch (12-1)-Will look for another price in this leg and Aaron Merriman is a new set of hands. Nfld record merits respect (8-3-2-1) and this 3-year-old can take some air.
8-Fly High Cruiser (7/2)-Went gate to wire at Dela and did pretty much the same from post 8 at ScD 2 back. The post helps the price and has won 2 of 3 at Nfld. Will respect the chances of a 3-peat with Dan Noble doing the steering.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EDT)

5-Heerz Corinthian (7/2)-Has had a nice year winning 4 of 8 and is looking for its 3rd straight picture. There should be lively fractions, and this is a stalker who could pick up the pieces.
6-Hunka Hunka (4-1)-This is another who is in sharp form. Wins at Nfld, ScD, Dela and the fair circuit. Kurt Sugg should be headed toward the point when the wings fold. Looks like a player with a smooth trip.
8-Odds On RPJ (8-1)-Finished a beaten 2nd in Dela but the winner (7) got the jump on the field and had his way on the lead. The post helps the price and should offer value with Merriman steering on this oval. Won from the 7-hole on 7-19 and that was its last race at Nfld.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EDT)

6-Sualsbrook Mabel (2-1)-Makes the 3rd start for the Corey Kreiser barn. Was in good form before the claim and stayed sharp. Lands in a good spot to double up. Showed big speed off the car in last with a 25.4 opening quarter. Should be out and rolling again as Dan Noble sticks. Could get on the engine and make every call a winning one.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EDT)

5-Legendary L (3-1)-Team LeVan 3-year-old likes to win, draws well, and fits. The filly has good gate speed and should be racing near the top of the stack. Can be in the hunt at the wire with a good trip.
7-Queen Of Fear (7/2)-Not sure what happened with the Ineligible scratch at Dayton in last. This filly would be the program chalk if drew inside. Has hit the board in 5 of 7 at Nfld with 4 pictures and could add to that to total if dialed on high. Looks like a major threat and will probably be bet down.

$1 Late Pick 4

1,5,7,8/5,6,8/6/5,7
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2025, 01:59 PM

Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Sha Tin | October 4, 2025

October 3, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

After the rare midweek visit to Sha Tin, we’re extending our hotel reservation for another day of racing. Just to keep us on our toes, the Hong Kong Jockey Club has slated this card for Saturday if you’re local, Friday night for those of us in the United States. Who needs a routine, anyway? The numbers have been refreshed, I’ve got four races I like on the day, so let’s try to pad up that bankroll before first post in Lexington.

Helpful Resources

Sha Tin – October 4
HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...se=ST&RaceNo=1

Race 2 | 1400M | Class 5

Win – #3 MY FLYING ANGEL
Exacta Box – 2,3
Grade: A

Notes: On September 14 of this year, MY FLYING ANGEL lived up to his name and came flying down the stretch to take over CIRCUIT FIERY at the wire in a seven-furlong bout. Fast forward to the future and imagine your cell phone light illuminating the room in the middle of the night as you smack your imaginary rolled up program against your thigh calling home MY FLYING ANGEL for a repeat. These two are back at it, but the pace looks like it could be a bit more of a problem for CIRCUIT FIERY than it was in his last attempt with ISLAND GOLDEN and COLONEL expected to be riding hot early. MY FLYING ANGEL didn’t get a perfect trip last time out, either, and fought out of the box closing in around him with plenty of gas left to take off towards the wire. Our top choice gets a better draw in the tenth post this time, and I can’t find too many good reasons to play against another solid performance. I still think CIRCUIT FIERY is the best of the early pace setters and should pull away from the pack, but MY FLYING ANGEL will be his final-furlong workout buddy at a Morning Line of 11/1.

Race 3 | 1650M | Class 4 (All-Weather)
Quinella – 14 w/ 1,9
Grade: C+

Notes: I firmly believe PRECISION GOAL is the best horse in this field for the scenario, but I like the potential of a couple of other runners and am willing to take a small flyer on a Quinella that could feature two others. I’m going to key my Quinella around VIEW ALL THINGS who ran for his new barn for the first time in his last, a six-furlong sprint on the All-Weather course. He looked like he had more in the tank and I’m curious to see how he fares stretching out to a mile. He has been tabbed with a 16/1 Morning Line, and I think that’s fair given his recent performances and new setup, but my numbers point towards a potential step forward as he tries again on the All-Weather course. I’m going to play a small Quinella with SIGHT SUPREME and PRECISION GOAL and bank on a favorable price and potential.

Race 5 | 1200M | Class 4
Win - #2 REZEKI
Quinella Box – 1,2,3,7
Grade: B

Notes: Reasonably favored on the Morning Line in this race is LAHORE, who seems to never be more than a length out from a victory. However, there’s one race in his last five where he finished nine lengths back in six-furlong sprint. That came on June 25th where they ran him back after just seventeen days to squeeze in one more run before the end of the season. He typically gets about four weeks off between races, so that seventeen-day break was a bit of a short rest for him. LAHORE just ran on September 28th of this year, making it a whopping six days to recoup and run back. The barn has been hot, but I’m more than happy to play against their strategy here even with the most talented sprinter in the field. My numbers use a boom or bust approach to identify horses that maybe aren’t consistently running well, but have shown the potential to run a big figure. KING PROFIT is of the consistently solid variety alongside AWESOME TREASURE. I like the ceiling of REZEKI at odds of 35/1 and the potential of DECISION LINK making his second start in Hong Kong with a Morning Line of 11/1. If there’s a race that has a vulnerable favorite, I think it’s this one and I want to capitalize on that fact. I’m spread out in this race, but if any combo hits I think it could make the day.

Race 9 | 1200M | Class 3
Win - #5 JUMBO TREASURE
Quinella – 3 w/ 1,5
Grade: A

Notes: I can’t imagine a scenario that doesn’t result in BULB GENERAL repeating as a standout sprinter. He seems destined to keep climbing the class ranks and rack up wins. However, I do think he has a tough task in this one overcoming the gate-to-wire potential of JUMBO TREASURE who had an awkward start in his last outing before fighting for his usual spot on the lead. If JUMBO TREASURE gets out of the gate fine, which has never really been an issue for him, I think he will be leading this field around the turn and heading for home. On his tail should be CHATEAUNEUF who has a big run in his bag somewhere if he can find it. From far back will be the roaring BULB GENERAL, but with only six furlongs to set himself up to close it’s not a sure thing that he has the perfect trip with no traffic and a clear lane to the wire. I think the pace setup in this race benefits JUMBO TREASURE and at a Morning Line of 13/1 I think it’s more than fair to see if his second race off the break fares better. If I’m extra lucky, things will get busy for BULB GENERAL and CHATEAUNEUF will be able to hold on for second and keep his double-digit ML price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2025, 02:00 PM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita Park - Race #8

#6 Hang the Moon	Same story here for me as last time out when she brought a dud -- I don't think that highly of her overall, but this is when she was good last year, and I am encouraged by the fact that they're still giving her the shot at this kind of level when there are some softer spots they could look to as confidence builders. It's more that I like the idea of her even being here in the first place than that I've handicapped my way into her. Worth a look.
#1 Watchtower	Don't think she's getting a particularly spicy race shape to rally today, but she can be a bit tactical if the run calls for it, and I think she has some deceptively good form. In the mix and the multis.
#8 Alpha Bella	She's another with a claim on this competitive spot, as her turf runs have been pretty reliable when facing a few tough names along the way. Wouldn't argue too hard with you here, but I would likely want a better price than she's going to offer in a race where they all kind of look the same to me.
Race Summary	Hang the Moon and Watchtower seem like an interesting stand to take in a spot where they both have ceilings high enough to score. #7 Amber Cascade fits off the last couple but should get bet.

Santa Anita Park - Race #9

#2 La Ville Lumiere	She ran OK in the debut on the dirt here, so the surface switch doesn't bring a ton of questions, and she could find a good spot while tracking the pace. Not as dynamic as some of these, but she might like the trip.
#6 Explora	Second-best last out, she still finished ahead of some of these in that spot, and she has some pace in a route race without a whole lot of serious early burn. The one to beat.
#3 La Wally	She's already shown a little bit of finishing ability through two starts, and she wasn't embarrassed in that common stakes spot last time out. Another option.
Race Summary	La Ville Lumierie should be a nice number while the Debutante fillies take all the cash, but she's not exposed on the dirt with just that one super-short sprint try on debut.

Santa Anita Park - Race #10

#2 Twilight Delight	Could see him getting a nice run of things while in behind the speedier types into the turn, and he could be just waiting to find a way through traffic into the lane.
#6 Ventry Stand	Big finish landed him a score at first asking going short at Del Mar, but I'm just a bit worried that the race won't flatter a similarly late run today. Consider.
#8 Bacio	Can't argue with the connections in this spot, and he gets over to the turf after a decent dirt debut win at Monmouth. Wouldn't be a surprise.
Race Summary	Twilight Delight might get a perfect run on the inside, and he might like this tighter trip after just flattening out late at Kentucky Downs last out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2025, 02:00 PM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#3 UNINVITED GUEST (9-2)	Out-kicked by the rail running favorite in same spot two back.
#7 H C HOLIDAY (10-1)	Stands 7/1-2-2 in long-distance races on the main track since mid-April.
#4 INBOUND (7-2)	Six-figure earner plays to a steady beat, rallied for third on class hike to $10k.
Race Summary	UNINVITED GUEST left too much work to do in a one-mile turf race at this level. But he should be much closer to the pace and in prime striking range as he was with Chuan aboard two starts ago on the main track. Bet to win and place and play 3-4 and 3-7 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#1 LEONIDS (9-2)	Versatility comes in handy from the rail on the class drop to winning level.
#8 NANCY MADE MY DAY (7-2)	Finished 1-2 in 6 of 13 starts against better at 6F, enters new barn.
#2 NORFIE (10-1)	Seeks duplicate of race two starts ago, sheds 7 pounds as co-lightweight.
Race Summary	LEONIDS draws the rail with some speed types to his outside, but he gets class relief and showed a passing gear when he last won for a $5,000 claiming price at 6F in May. Bet to win and place and play a 1-2-8 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #6

#1 BOYD’S BAND (10-1)	Gets pace to run at, moves outside in off wide trip, worth a price shot.
#3 OLEG (2-1)	Best numbers, won after 8 months away for 21-percent ‘repeat’ barn.
#7 KUZ IT’S CHILLY (6-1)	Dueled and gave way in long sprint, missed in photo finishes at this level.
Race Summary	BOYD’S BAND rallied for a second and two thirds in five dirt sprints this year. He can make an upset run with a ground-saving stalking trip and plenty of speed up ahead. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3-ALL trifecta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2025, 02:02 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Special Wager
PURCHASE

Special Wager - Race 2	Leg 2 of the Fall Turf Pick 3
Stakes • 1 1/16 Miles • Inner Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 106 • Purse: $200,000 • Post: 5:07P
BET365 DANCE SMARTLY S. WO - R8 - GRADE 2 INNER TURF FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * READY FOR SHIRL: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. CAITLINHERGRTNES S: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. FIVE TOWNS (GB): Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BREATH AWAY (GB): Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. MO FOX GIVIN: Ho rse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
4	READY FOR SHIRL	9/5	5/1
6	CAITLINHERGRTNESS	2/1	6/1
2	FIVE TOWNS (GB)	12/1	7/1
1	BREATH AWAY (GB)	6/1	8/1
9	MO FOX GIVIN	10/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	CAITLINHERGRTNESS	6	2/1	Front-runner	104	102	97.7	99.1	96.6
3	HURRICANE CLAIR	3	20/1	Front-runner	98	101	88.2	69.2	55.2
5	DISTANT WINTER (SAF)	5	15/1	Stalker	92	89	76.0	85.7	72.7
9	MO FOX GIVIN	9	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	99	97	87.0	94.2	85.2
2	FIVE TOWNS (GB)	2	12/1	Trailer	106	104	96.6	95.2	86.7
4	READY FOR SHIRL	4	9/5	Trailer	109	104	95.0	99.6	92.6
1	BREATH AWAY (GB)	1	6/1	Trailer	101	95	87.0	96.8	89.8
7	HOPE MISSION	7	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	90	81	80.0	86.8	71.3
8	QUEENS COMMAND (IRE)	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	98	96	65.2	87.6	78.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2025, 02:02 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 3	Leg 3 of the Keeneland Turf Pick 3
Stakes • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 118 • Purse: $1,250,000 • Post: 5:48P
COOLMORE TURF MILE S. KEE - R10 - GRADE 1 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. EPIC RIDE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * EPIC RIDE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse had a bullet workout within t he last seven days. PROGRAM TRADING (GB): Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. DONEGAL MOMENTUM: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
7	EPIC RIDE	20/1	3/1
8	PROGRAM TRADING (GB)	9/2	9/1
1	DONEGAL MOMENTUM	12/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	EPIC RIDE	7	20/1	Front-runner	114	114	111.0	109.6	104.6
1	DONEGAL MOMENTUM	1	12/1	Front-runner	110	100	107.2	85.0	65.0
3	HOWARD WOLOWITZ	3	6/1	Stalker	109	111	104.9	104.9	92.9
8	PROGRAM TRADING (GB)	8	9/2	Stalker	112	110	103.0	106.8	96.8
6	MERCANTE	6	20/1	Stalker	114	109	99.0	103.2	90.7
2	QUATROCENTO	2	15/1	Stalker	110	109	96.2	106.4	87.9
11	BEACH GOLD	11	30/1	Stalker	114	113	93.2	105.4	88.4
9	RHETORICAL	9	8/1	Stalker	102	100	89.6	97.2	77.7
10	BRILLIANT BERTI	10	8/1	Trailer	116	105	86.4	105.2	94.2

Unknown Running Style: DIEGO VELAZQUEZ (IRE) (7/2) [Jockey: Dettori Lanfranco - Trainer: O'Brien Aidan P], WOODSHAUNA (FR) (5/1) [Jockey: Gaffalione Tyler - Trainer: Graffard F], JONQUIL (GB) (15/1) [Jockey: Davis Dylan - Trainer: Balding Andrew].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2025, 02:02 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fairmount Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 86

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 LAST MINUTE 5/2
# 3 PURPLE OCTOPUS 7/2
# 8 SOLOMON VANDY 8/1

I think LAST MINUTE is a decent choice. Always good to invest in a trainer with this kind of competitive win percentage - 25 percent - at this distance & surface. Will almost certainly compete admirably in the pace battle which bodes well with this field. Should land in the top three without any worries. PURPLE OCTOPUS - Is tough not to consider based on Speed Figures which have been decent - 76 avg - of late. There is a very good chance that this entry's late pace will improve with second time Lasix. SOLOMON VANDY - Reason to like this gelding as he has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. Always seems to be right there on the wire.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2025, 02:02 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Stakes - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 94

SPEAKEASY S. SA - R10 - FOR TWO-YEAR-OLDS. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH IF MADE ON OR BEFORE SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2025, CLOSED WITH 36 OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $2,000 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY. $750 TO ENTER AND AN ADDITIONAL $750 TO START WITH $100,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH$60,000 TO THE WINNER, $20,000 TO SECOND, $12,000 TO THIRD, $6,000 TO FOURTH AND $2,000 TO

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 11 BRIGANTE 8/1
# 6 VENTRY STRAND 9/2
# 10 ARKADELPHIA 20/1

BRIGANTE looks to be a respectable contender and the potential return justifies the dangerous nature of the long odds. Solid average Equibase Speed Figures in turf sprint races make this equine a solid choice. Will most likely be one of the front-runners of the bunch going into the midpoint of the race. Is difficult not to consider given the company run in lately. VENTRY STRAND - Has been running soundly and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. Strong jockey with trainer numbers make this horse a strong pick. ARKADELPHIA - Ran a strong last race. Very good choice to take this race going in a turf sprint.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2025, 02:03 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race #2 - Post: 7:32pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,900 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#5 GRAND PARK VIEW (ML=6/1)

GRAND PARK VIEW - Was in a $12,500 Claiming race at Colonial Downs last time out. That clash had a class rating of 76 and he is moving down right here in this race. A certain solid contender. This deep closer should have a big impact on this race. Expect a strong closing kick. This colt's last speed rating notched on Sep 3rd is number one in last race speed ratings.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 GERICAULT (ML=2/1), #1 CUCHULAIN (ML=5/2), #3 AFLEET VINTAGE (ML=3/1),

GERICAULT - If you keep playing these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be dissatisfied often. CUCHULAIN - This horse hasn't been in the money in either of his last two efforts. When looking at today's Equibase class figure, he will have to record a better rating than in the last race to battle in this dirt route. AFLEET VINTAGE - If he goes off anywhere near the oddsmaker's morning line of 3/1, I'll have to pass.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #5 GRAND PARK VIEW to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with 6
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-04-2025, 02:03 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belmont at the Big A - Race #11 - Post: 5:28pm - Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $88,000 Class Rating: 96

Rating:

#8 KING D'ORO (ML=8/1)
#6 ELBAZ (FR) (ML=12/1)
#10 MAIN BEACH (ML=4/1)
#5 IRISH GENT (IRE) (ML=7/2)
#4 BRIT'S WIT (ML=20/1)

KING D'ORO - Gelding's last morning work was second fastest of the day for the distance. This gelding has the top turf rating in his last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here horse has a good chance. ELBAZ (FR) - In my opinion, you need 'class' to be successful on the grass. This one has the highest average Equibase class figure in the group. Always watch out for the longer priced equine when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. Based on the TrackMaster data I've reviewed, this colt should run well off the layoff. Pletcher, the trainer, shows intent by adding Lasix right here. A positive sign. Even though he isn't from around here, when a horse has finished in the money at a major foreign racing venue he will usually give a good account of himself soon after shipping. This horse didn't run well on the soft turf in his last race at STC. You probably want to throw out that effort. MAIN BEACH - Brown has a very strong win pct in turf routes. This gelding should be fit and ready to go. Brown has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to beware of the longer priced half. IRISH GENT (IRE) - This rider and handler have a favorable return on investment when they unite. I like a campaigner that manages to finish in the money as often as this gelding. Almost always in the money so don't leave him out of your exotic bets. In this race here, this race horse has garnered the highest speed rating at the distance, so I have to give him the edge. BRIT'S WIT - This horse has shown the class ability to win on different tracks. Making the move from Saratoga for today's event, I have to believe he's ready to run.

Vulnerable Contenders: #16 BUTTAH (ML=5/2), #3 RISK TOLERANCE (IRE) (ML=3/1), #12 FILOSO (ML=9/2),

BUTTAH - He probably can't repeat that last stretch effort and win against this bunch. RISK TOLERANCE (IRE) - Last performed on Jul 27th at Saratoga, finishing eighth. Not likely to perk up off of that try in today's event. FILOSO - 9/2 is too short of a reward to take on most any thoroughbred that has run poorly in back to back efforts.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #8 KING D'ORO on the nose if you can get odds of 6/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,8,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	[6,8,10] with [4,5,6,8,10] with [4,5,6,8,10] Total Cost: $36