Tuesday 10/7/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#5 Inmate	He ran pretty well in a couple sprint tries so far, and I think he's in line for a good trip today while stretching out. Could get a dreamy trip.
#7 Madagascar	Capable team sends this one first time out after a string of drills in New York, so take a look at him on the tote and track ahead of this. Makes sense on paper.
#2 Freestate	Not much to write home about through four starts that include a local dud at 3/2 on the board, but the move around two turns might work in his favor, and he's quick enough to show some route pace today in a spot that might not have a ton of early speed.
Race Summary	Inmate looks interesting while getting around two turns today, as he's bred to handle the trip and should find a perfect spot while tracking the splits today.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#8 More Love	He's a question mark locally but is capable of something better this time around after the dull Thistledown run last out. Wide draw might force him into a pressing/attacking kind of trip from out here, and that might be the right run in this spot.
#7 Puttheblameonme	Finisher has been in with some OK groups and makes sense here from off the pace, and there is probably a little bit of upside today in the second start back after hitting the top and just tiring late last out. Enough to like.
#1 Riding a Dream	Positional pace might find an OK trip today, as he has a mild ability to relax if some of the other forward players want to force the issue from the outside.
Race Summary	More Love might get a perfect run to get first jump today, and I'm wondering if the price might be OK after the flat run last out.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#7 Jeffersonian	Barn does really good work with 2-year-olds here at any kind of trip, so I'm going to start my work by checking this one out. Lean to a fresh face.
#5 Squad Goals	Small step forward off the debut try might be enough to get him over the top, as he showed useful tactical pace that day and should find another decent spot. Touch cleaner go does the trick?
#1 Mr. Hooligan	He only showed tactical pace while never proving a threat in a small field first out, but he might find himself along the fence to save some ground while trying to run on late at this sharper trip. Some interest here.
Race Summary	Jeffersonian debuts for a team that has hit pretty hard with their youngsters here over the last couple seasons, and there isn't a whole lot of finishing punch lined up today -- might be ready to take advantage of a spot like this.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #1

#5 BET ON BRET (10-1)	Won off similar rest, adds blinkers, should sit good trip at a good price.
#2 GALPIN SUNDAY (3-1)	Dueled long way, held third in shorter sprint, enters new barn.
#4 FARLEY HALL (9-5)	Steady numbers, looks to upstage three consecutive runner-up finishes.
Race Summary	With runners arriving from five tracks, taking a longshot stab on BET ON BRET, who faded badly in his seasonal debut on conventional dirt. But he won a MSW sprint off similar rest to today with second-time Lasix and exited a strong 5-1/2F follow-up race on a synthetic track. Bet to win and place.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #2

#5 SARAH’S SMILES (12-1)	Main-track routes okay, sheds 7 pounds, use in all gimmick wagers.
#8 SWEET SAINT (5-2)	Takes some catching in first route try off a :47.3 work last Tuesday.
#2 ECHO DREAMER (4-1)	Fits well on best for barn in midst of 6-32 run with sprint-to-route angle.
Race Summary	SARAH’S SMILES, third in a crowded turf-to-dirt allowance route race three starts back, was slowed by the pace in a one-mile follow-up. She gets in light-weighted, gets blinkers back on and gets a livelier pace flow to make an upset bid. Bet to win and place and play a 2-5-8 exacta box.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #4

#3 VIKING (7-2)	Impressed in maiden win at Oaklawn, one of many with a chance in here.
#5 JACK’S PROMISE (3-1)	Won at Gulfstream, Keeneland and Saratoga in last five starts.
#7 SIR GALLIVANT (6-1)	Appears rounding to another good race, sheds 7 pounds.
Race Summary	Shook a duel en route to an 81 Beyer in maiden-breaking win at Oaklawn, then succumbed to a duel after a :44-4/5 half mile in a comeback allowance at Ellis Park. He starts fresh and gets the nod in a deep field. Bet to win and place and play a 3/5, 7/ALL trifecta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fairmount Park
PURCHASE

Fairmount Park - Race 7	Late Daily Double $1.00 (Races 7-8) / Exacta .50 Cent Trifecta (Minimum $1.00 Wager) / .10 Cent Superfecta
Optional Claiming $20,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 5:00P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $20,000 FOR HORSES WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Trailer. BALLYBAY BEAUTY is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BALLYBAY BEAUTY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highes t average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CODE OF CONDUCT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest averag e Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5	BALLYBAY BEAUTY	5/2	2/1
2	CODE OF CONDUCT	7/2	9/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	LA REYNITA	7	9/2	Alternator/Front-runner	70	65	69.7	55.7	50.2
2	CODE OF CONDUCT	2	7/2	Stalker	83	74	74.0	72.8	70.3
3	ELIZA VANCE	3	5/1	Stalker	66	65	68.7	59.6	53.1
5	BALLYBAY BEAUTY	5	5/2	Trailer	76	84	77.9	78.6	73.1
1	FEAR THE QUEEN	1	6/1	Trailer	61	48	46.8	46.8	36.3
4	MISS CONTROL FREAK	4	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	51	43	60.1	37.7	24.2
6	WORD GAME	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	56	41.2	41.2	29.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fort Erie
PURCHASE

Fort Erie - Race 6	WPS, Exactor, 20 Cent Triactor, Daily Double, 20 Cent Superfecta
Claiming $6,250 • 7 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $21,150 • Post: 2:35P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 6 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250, IF FOR $6,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (COLTS AND GELDINGS PREFERRED)(LIMITED TO 10 STARTERS)(*PLUS UP TO $540 ONTARIO BRED/ONTARIO SIRED BREEDERS AWARDS). IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN ON THE TURF, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT A DISTANCE OF SIX AND ONEHALF FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. FOREST WOODSMAN is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FOREST WOODSMAN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BOSTON BAY: Horse ha s run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. GRAN SPIRITED: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. MODDASSAH: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
4	FOREST WOODSMAN	5/2	6/1
8	BOSTON BAY	12/1	6/1
3	GRAN SPIRITED	2/1	6/1
2	MODDASSAH	7/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	FOREST WOODSMAN	4	5/2	Front-runner	76	72	64.4	61.6	51.1
8	BOSTON BAY	8	12/1	Stalker	79	76	61.0	69.2	62.2
5	SCREEN LEGEND	5	6/1	Stalker	77	68	56.2	58.6	49.6
3	GRAN SPIRITED	3	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	80	74	44.2	73.2	66.2
2	MODDASSAH	2	7/2	Trailer	76	73	77.7	71.1	66.1
7	PLAY THE DOTS	7	12/1	Trailer	72	63	5.8	64.4	55.4
1	SANTIAGO SALSA	1	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	77	69	21.1	40.8	27.3
6	ONTARIO HOLIDAY	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	60	52.4	55.0	44.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Thistledown - Race #1 - Post: 12:50pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,000 Class Rating: 88

Rating:

#4 PUFF'SMAGICDRAGON (ML=3/1)
#5 LAW OF THE JUNGLE (ML=5/1)


PUFF'SMAGICDRAGON - Already raced against today's M/L favorite on Sep 11th at Thistledown and finished ahead of that one. Have to believe he can do it again right here in this race. This gelding is in exceptional physical condition right now. Ended up third last time out and comes back rapidly. I like the case that this gelding's last fig, 83, is tops in this field. Everybody's got their favorite tracks, but if you ask this horse, I think his answer would be Thistledown. LAW OF THE JUNGLE - This rider/trainer duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +35. You have to bet this animal at a racetrack he likes. There's nothing like being comfortable out on the track when it's time to race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SWEEPING GIANT (ML=2/1), #2 OUR LAST SONG (ML=7/2), #6 DR SCHUSTER (ML=6/1),

SWEEPING GIANT - You should normally wager against morning-line favorites that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last three weeks. This gelding didn't race too well last time out of the box. Will be tough for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the likely underpriced contenders list. OUR LAST SONG - Won't be easy for this thoroughbred to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put her on the likely underpriced contenders list. DR SCHUSTER - This gelding is always in the money, but just doesn't finish on top. Tough to wager on him on the top end. When scrutinizing today's class figure, he will have to register a much better speed fig than last out to be competitive in this dirt route.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #4 PUFF'SMAGICDRAGON on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 88

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 7 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 FLAT LUCKY 4/1
# 8 WEEKEND CONCERTO 3/1
# 2 QUEBECK (ARG) 6/1

I like FLAT LUCKY here. Recorded a quite good Equibase Speed Figure last time out. Has run solidly when travelling a dirt sprint race. One of the strongest win percentages between this jockey and trainer make this gelding dangerous. WEEKEND CONCERTO - Is tough not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figs which have been quite good - 80 avg - of late. Has formidable early lick and will probably fare strongly versus this group. QUEBECK (ARG) - Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Silva have shown very solid results recently. Is hard not to look at based on speed figs which have been solid - 75 avg - of late.

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belterra Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 77

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 7, 2025 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000, FOR EACH $2,500 TO $10,000 1 LB.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 HEAVY HITTER 10/1
# 4 MEMPHIS SLIM 9/2
# 6 GOLDEN GOAL 7/2

HEAVY HITTER is my choice particularly if the morning line of 10/1 holds. Could provide positive dividends based on respectable recent speed figures with an average of 71. Is a solid contender - given the 77 speed figure from his most recent race. MEMPHIS SLIM - He looks quite good in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the midpoint. Ran a very strong last race. GOLDEN GOAL - Will probably go to the lead and could never look back. Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 77 - of his last contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Presque Isle Downs - Race #5 - Post: 5:18pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $36,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#5 INMATE (ML=5/2)
#2 FREESTATE (ML=6/1)


INMATE - Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a good contest on Sep 19th. This horse could be close at the end. He's got a terrific late kick. This horse earns a lot of money per race around the track. I believe he can increase that bankroll in this field. The 80 last race speed rating looks strong in black and white. FREESTATE - Rode this thoroughbred on September 19th and Rodriguez is right back in the irons this time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MADAGASCAR (ML=2/1), #3 TREGETOUR (ML=9/2), #6 STRUCK (ML=6/1),

MADAGASCAR - Just don't believe he is worth the risk at the given odds. TREGETOUR - Would have to get quite a bit more than the oddsmaker's morning line of 9/2 to bet on this horse. STRUCK - Would have to advance off that tenth place finish last time out of the box to make an impact here. This turf horse hasn't yet proven that he can run on the dirt. Finished tenth in his most recent performance with a run-of-the-mill rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 INMATE to win at post-time odds of 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip