Saturday 10/11/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-08-2025, 08:23 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II Challeng

October 6, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The final Grade 1 stakes at Keeneland for 2025 takes place Saturday as centerpiece on a 10-race card that begins at 1 pm ET. The $800,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup matches 3-year-old fillies in a showcase that boasts a winner’s roll call with the likes of She Feels Pretty, Rushing Fall, Dayatthespa, Film Maker, Perfect Sting and Ryafan over the years.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (Race 9):

#1-LUSH LIPS: Del Mar Oaks runner-up has been well-traveled between Florida, Kentucky and California this season. She’s been first or second in 6 straight starts dating back to last fall. Trainer Brendan Walsh got off to a red-hot start to the Keeneland Fall Meet with 5 winners, including the Jessamine and Spinster Stakes.

#2-LAURELIN: Unbeaten filly looks for her sixth career win following a Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks Invitational score. Her 5 wins have come by 5-1/4 combined lengths. Trainer Graham Motion won the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup in 2003 with Film Maker. Regular rider Kendrick Carmouche seeks his first Keeneland turf victory and first local score of any kind since the 2011 Fall Meet, having made infrequent visits.

#3-SIMMERING: English-based Ollie Sangster is a former Wesley Ward assistant and makes his first Keeneland appearance as a head trainer. Third in this year’s Group 1 English One Thousand Guineas, this filly exits a third in France’s Group 3 Prix de Lieurey at Deauville. Local rider Luis Saez picks up the mount. Simmering could join 2023 winner Mawj as the only internationally based QE2 winners in the past decade and the fourth overall.

#4-DAISY FLYER: Saratoga’s Grade 3 Lake George winner makes her first Grade 1 appearance for trainer Rusty Arnold, who last week passed Bill Mott as Keeneland’s all-time leading trainer by wins (308). Florent Geroux piloted Her Emmyneency to victory in this race in 2015. Daily Flyer looks to bounce back off a troubled trip in the Grade 3 Dueling Grounds Oaks behind QEII rivals Fionn and Candy Quest.

#5-OPULENT RESTRAINT: Chad Brown has a record 5 wins in the QEII, (2012, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022). He’ll search for a sixth with this Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks-placed filly. Daughter of Dubawi has chased race rivals Laurelin, Fionn and Lush Lips in starts this year. Jockey Joel Rosario won this race with Harmonious in 2010.

#6-CANDY QUEST: Posted a last-to-second rally in the Grade 3 Dueling Grounds Oaks at Kentucky Downs last time, caught in the shadow of the wire by return rival Fionn. Trainer Mark Casse had success in this race with front-running La Coronel (2017). Jockey Jose Ortiz has the return call on the Grade 3 Ontario Colleen Stakes winner who will be racing at her sixth different track this year.

#7-DESTINO D’ORO: Last year’s narrow third-place finisher in Keeneland’s Grade 3 Jessamine returns to the scene while Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the mount for the first time. She won Ellis Park’s Grade 3 Pucker Up Stakes this summer and looks to rebound off a disappointing sixth in the Grade 3 Dueling Grounds Oaks as an odds-on favorite. Both trainer Brad Cox and jockey Ortiz seek their first wins in this race.

#8-WILL THEN: After summering on the west coast, the San Clemente third-place finisher and Del Mar Oaks fifth-place finisher makes her first career appearance at Keeneland. Jockey Frankie Dettori won both the Woodford Stakes and Jessamine Stakes on the Keeneland turf during the Fall Meet’s opening weekend. Jonathan Thomas trains the daughter of 2019 Preakness winner War of Will, who returned in 2020 to win Keeneland’s Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile over this turf course.

#9-FIONN: Field’s hottest filly has won 3 straight and 6 of her last 7, including hard-fought scores in the Grade 3 Regret, Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and Grade 3 Dueling Grounds Oaks over 3 diverse courses. Trainer Brad Cox looks to avenge this filly’s only defeat in her last 7 races, a third-place finish in April’s Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes – her only previous run at Keeneland. Jockey Flavien Prat is a 2-time winner of the QEII, back-to-back with Shantisara and Gina Romantica in 2021-’22 (both for Chad Brown).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-08-2025, 08:24 AM

Meet the Contenders: Saturday’s Maryland Million at Laurel

October 6, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The 40th edition of the Jim McKay Maryland Million returns to Laurel Park on Saturday. The 12-race showcase became the nation’s first statewide Breeders’ Cup spinoff in 1986 and remains Laurel’s biggest date on its annual racing calendar. First post is 11:30 am ET with 134 horses passing the entry box among 8 stakes and a quartet of starter handicaps.

Let’s meet the contenders for the Maryland Million Day stakes fest:

POST TIME: Laurel superstar headlines the Race 11 Classic in search of 11 straight wins over the home track without a loss. This time a year ago, the $1.4 million earner was preparing for his second-place run in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Brittany Russell trains the 5-year-old by Frosted, whose 2025 ledger includes a third-place finish in the Blame at Churchill Downs behind last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and a recent third in the Woodward in New York behind Breeders’ Cup Classic prospect Locked. Sheldon Russell rides Laurel’s 2-time Polynesian Stakes winner (by 28-1/2 combined lengths).

WITTY: The Race 2 Maryland Million Turf Sprint could come down to a furious finish if this 6-year-old’s style and history have its expected say. The Elizabeth Merryman trainee has won 11 times with 11 seconds from 34 starts – the vast majority of those wild rallies from far back. He won the Jim McKay Turf Sprint on Preakness Week at Pimlico and Colonial Downs’ Van Clief this summer. A win Saturday puts him right at the doorstep of the $1 million career milestone and would give him a second crown in this race, having won it in 2023.

FOXY JUNIOR: Penn National-based mare has made the most of her Laurel appearances, winning all 3, including the 2024 Maryland Million Distaff, which she’s back to defend in Race 7. She’s since added the Thirty Eight Go Go Stakes and the Twixt most recently by open lengths. Bernard Houghton trains the 11-time winner who would pass $500,000 in career earnings if successful Saturday in a rematch of last year’s top-4 finishers in the Distaff.

PRECIOUS AVARY: The 2023 Maryland Million Ladies winner on turf just missed by a neck when second in her title defense a year ago and is back for more Saturday in Race 10. The 5-year-old mare is a daughter of Divining Rod, third in American Pharoah’s 2015 Preakness score en route to the Triple Crown. This will be this Tim Shaw trainee’s fourth straight Maryland Million Day appearance, which includes a debut in the Lassie in 2022.

SKY’S NOT FALLING The 2022 Maryland Million Turf Sprint winner missed adding a second division to his ledger last year when falling a nose short in the Maryland Million Turf. The 7-year-old returns looking for that Turf title in Race 4. Mike Trombetta sends out the gelding in what will be his sixth straight Maryland Million appearance, dating back to the 2000 Nursery – earning more than $500,000 along the journey.

BARBADIAN RUNNER: 3-year-old may be the Race 11 Maryland Million Classic division’s heir apparent after 4 stakes wins on the sophomore campaign, including the Spectacular Bid and Miracle Wood locally. Shipped out of town to win Monmouth’s Jersey Derby and most recently Charles Town’s Robert R. Hilton Memorial Stakes for veteran trainer Henry Walters.

TWISTED RIDE: Third in the 2024 Grade 1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt at Saratoga, this Parx-based veteran was runner-up in the 2023 Maryland Million Sprint and makes his second appearance in the race. He’s a 4-time stakes winner over his local track in Philly and would surpass $700,000 in lifetime earnings with a victory in the Race 12 finale.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2025, 06:33 AM

Race of the Week: Sam Huff WV Breeders Classic at CT

October 8, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The 39th edition of the West Virginia Breeders Classics is set for Saturday night at Charles Town, which first hosted the state-bred all-star event in 1987. The $300,000 Classic serves as the featured race on the 10-stakes card that gets underway at 7 pm ET. The mile and one-eighth Classic goes as Race 9 with post time set for 11:02 pm ET.

Horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can take advantage of $2,500 Hit & Split promotions in both the late pick 4 and late pick 5 sequences on Saturday night at Charles Town.

Field Depth:
Past Classic winners MUAD'DIB and RUNALDO, as well as multiple local stakes winner TEACHINTHERELEASE appear to be class standouts in the capacity field.

Pace:
Given the track configuration, the trip will be 3 turns on the tight bullring oval. There's time to makeup ground on the backstretch, but you better be in striking distance entering the final bend. TEACHINTHERELEASE could take some early heat from NO LOVE FOR JUBA and BAIL IS DENIED, but the pace doesn't appear overwhelming.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-BAD LINEAGE: Longshot is winless in 7 starts this year and makes his first stakes appearance in his 28th lifetime start. No case to make.

#2-NEVERPOPTHECORK: First or second in 8 of his last 9 starts, optional/claiming allowance sort was fourth on this undercard in 2022 in his only prior stakes try. Late-runner gets to save ground but needs a career-best effort to impact the finish.

#3-NO LOVE FOR JUBA: Red-hot 5-year-old has won 4 straight optional claimers between 6-1/2 furlongs and 1-1/16 miles. Far quicker than the pair inside, so should be on or near the lead from the inside for a high-percentage jockey/trainer tandem. Challenge lasting the 9 furlongs, but 2022 West Virginia Futurity winner could hold for a share.

#4-DIRECT APPEAL: 3-year-old meets elders and gets only 3-pound weight break. Recent allowance efforts going shorter don't inspire success this far for a barn that only has 4 wins on the year to date.

#5-XCELLENT START: No match for Teachintherelease in their last 2 matchups, including the 7-furlong Frank Gall Memorial Stakes last out. Fifth-place finisher in the Onion Juice on the WVBC undercard a year ago doesn't hint at a major move forward Saturday.

#6-BAIL IS DENIED: Connections will hope for rain as this 3-year-old's last 2 victories haver come on off-tracks in state-bred allowance races. Should be part of the early pace and has responded well since J.D. Acosta jumped aboard. Distance a question, but last year's WV Futurity runner-up isn't without some appeal.

#7-MUAD'DIB: Fifth Classic appearance for this millionaire statesman of the WV-bred scene. He won this race in 2021 and 2022, finished second in 2023 and third a year ago. He's 0-for-8 this year and fair to reason he's lost a few steps for a horse who opened his career 12-for-13 with a runner-up in the 2022 Grade 2 Charles Town Classic against open company his only blemish. The extended distance could help him, but he's got to make up about 5 lengths on Teachintherelease based on their 2 previous matchups in 2025. Arnaldo Bocachica jumps to ride his Jeff Runco-trained stablemate Runaldo, just as he did in this race last year.

#8-TEACHINTHERELEASE: The 7-5 morning line favorite has made a massive career rise since being claimed in June 2024 by high-percentage trainer Stephen Murdock. He's won 7 of 10 races since with a pair of runner-up finishes, including back-to-back editions of the Frank Gall Memorial Stakes and the Randy Funkhouser Memorial. It was the latter race last November where he carried his speed 9 furlongs and beat Saturday's principal rivals Runaldo and Muad'dib. The obvious horse to beat.

#9-I'M THE MONEY MAN: A distant fifth in this race last year at 67-1 odds, he's been dabbling in the minor awards in allowance/optional claiming company this year. He's 0-3 in stakes and looks to snap a 6-race losing streak, but his current form isn't too far off some of these.

#10-RUNALDO: Defending Classic champion scored at 7-1 odds, and absent a disastrous trip in the Frank Gall Memorial Stakes in August, he's held very solid form since then. Local stakes dominators Jeff Runco and Arnaldo Bocachica (for whom Run-Aldo is named) team up once again, a year after they won 4 stakes races on this very card. Teachintherelease has had his number in head-to-head matchups across the calendar, but with the money on the line, a repeat is absolutely within reach.

AE #11-ROYAL PAIN: 0-5 in stakes and just 1 for his last 9, he'll need some help drawing into the field and then be stuck outside with no edges to play.

AE #12-LATE IN THE GAME: Last year's late-running fourth-place finisher in this race has dropped 8 straight decisions. He was third in 2023 Classic and third in the 2022 WV Lottery WVBC on that undercard, so he's at home running decent this time of year. Consider for a late share if he draws into the race.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
MUAD'DIB is 35-for-37 in the superfecta lifetime and proven over this distance, even if not quite the local star he once was.

Best Longshot Contender:
NO LOVE FOR JUBA at 15-1 morning line has sustained his top form through the entire summer and into fall and should work out a cozy trip.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win RUNALDO.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-10-2025, 08:43 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Laurel, Charles Town Stakes Spotlights for Saturday

October 10, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

In honor of the day-night racing doubleheaders my dad and I used to pull at Laurel and Charles Town back in the 1980s in his Ford Thunderbird, I’m donning the throwback uniforms Saturday for a Maryland Million-West Virginia Breeders Classics handicapping daily double.

I’ve had the pleasure of being at both events multiple times, and no matter the state or the all-star program, a horseplayer always has to be cognizant of dominant horses that are bound to rule their respective divisions. It’s the nature of the beast, so pick your spots shrewdly, keep your multi-race tickets focused where the obvious spots appear and spread when there’s a greener outlook.

Horsesplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet take advantage of the Saturday promotions. The Maryland Million Classic is our Saturday Bet $25, Get $5 race in the Breeders’ Cup Bankroll Builder series. With #5 Post Time an expected huge favorite in search of an 11-for-11 Laurel record, this might be an easy spot to churn that $25 and take the $5 bonus money toward Breeders’ Cup. All single-race bet types offered on an eligible race are valid during this promotion (WPS, EX, TRI, SUPER).

Meanwhile, a $5,000 Hit & Split at Charles Town will be offered on the late pick 4 and pick 5 ($2,500 each).

Here are my key shots for both state-bred championship programs.

Laurel: Race 2 | 12:03 pm ET | Maryland Million Turf Sprint

#7 Noah Chance (15-1 morning line odds) could be an upset factor on the front end in a manageable, 8-horse field with very little early pace. Local favorites #3 Witty and #1 Had to Have Him may be compromised with deep-closing styles, and #8 Whenigettoheaven will be well-backed off big recent Beyers, but didn’t want to go by anyone in this race last year when unable to make the front. Speed jockey Xavier Perez gets a chance to speed-pop these at a price. Win bet #7. Exacta key-box 7 with 8,3,1.

Laurel: Race 5 | 1:51 pm ET | Maryland Million Lassie

#5 Share Success (4-1 morning line odds) debuted a winner over this track last month and has 3 works right on cue for the long-determined season goal. You don’t spend $115,000 on a daughter of $5,000 stallion Engage without some expectation of early return. Owned by the same connections as Preakness winner and star juvenile Afleet Alex, note this filly’s dam Stickingtogether was runner-up in the 2019 Maryland Million Lassie as well. Second-dam Who Did It And Run won the Grade 2 Jersey Derby over the boys and was a debut winner with early game in the late 1990s. Win bet #5.

Charles Town: Race 2 | 7:32 pm ET | WV Lottery Breeders Classic

#1 Marilyn Moonroe (5-1 morning line odds) is going to eliminate all the variables in this 3-year-old filly division. She’s dash speed from the rail and heavy favorite #5 Zip Start hasn’t been exactly zippy out of the gate on multiple occasions. If the favorite leaves flat-footed, this filly might give her the slip. She took on the multiple stakes-placed elder filly Lona Lee last time and was just second-best late. Back with the sophomores and no excuses from the fence. Win bet #1. Daily Double 1-3 to Duncan Idaho in the next, who just doesn’t lose CT dashes.

Charles Town: Race 5 | 9:02 pm ET | WVBC Distaff

#9 Impressionism (12-1 morning line odds) may appear to be one of the least likely winners on the card for the super-connections of Jeff Runco and Arnaldo Bocachica, who historically own this program. But the 1-1/8 miles distance is a huge separator for these fillies and mares who are a combined 5: 0-1-1 at the trip. The favorites may duke it out as it appears on paper and wilt late. Charles Town has run just 37 races at this distance the past 5 years; Runco has won 12 of them, while Bocachica has 17 of the victories. Her effort 2 races back on the Mountaineer turf is the kind of finish that could win this. Win-place bet #9.

Charles Town: Race 7 |10:02 pm ET | WVBC Onion Juice

#2 No Change (5-2 morning line odds) is the defending champion in the Onion Juice, the race named for the inaugural WV Breeders Classic winner and local legend of the 1980s that I revered in my teens. In the ’24 edition, No Change beat a tougher cast that included this year’s Classic favorite Teachintherelease, a horse this gelding has been splitting decisions with of late. Inside draws have been a boon for this one, who starts slow and can benefit from saving ground before unwinding on the backstretch. Win bet #2. Daily Double 2-7 to the late running The Sky Is Falling, who gets a delicious pace set-up for her rally in the next race, the Cavada WVBC.

For more on the West Virginia Breeders Classic main event, please see my Race of the Week analysis.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-10-2025, 08:43 AM

Scott Shapiro: Keeneland's QE2 + Spot Plays for Saturday

October 9, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

This Saturday’s card at Keeneland is not the stakes-laden card we saw a week ago, but it is still one very well worth attacking. As always, the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) is the traditional second Saturday of the fall meet feature. The prestigious 1 1/8-mile race over the grass for 3YO fillies drew a solid group and is a significant race within a challenging Pick 5 sequence, as well as the final leg of the player friendly $3 All-Turf Pick 3. Here are a few horses I will personally be leaning on in Lexington on Saturday afternoon.

Race 7:

This first-level allowance at 1 3/16-miles over the Keeneland lawn drew an oversubscribed field with a lukewarm 4-1-ML favorite.. The well-bred #3 Valentinian will likely take some public support trying the grass for the initial time, as well Godolphin’s #6 Chapman’s Peak. The son of Quality Road broke his maiden going even longer than this last out at Kentucky Downs against a group that I thought was subpar, but perhaps I was wrong. The second and third place finishers came back to run 1-2 on Wednesday afternoon. That said, I like #7 Warlander most. Admittedly, I am already down money on this son of Kitten’s Joy, but he has tackled better than this group throughout his 8-race career. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen added blinkers last out and it led to a strong runner-up effort despite being caught wide on a day where the inside was the place to be. The Winchell Thoroughbreds runner finds he field he should handle at what should be a playable price with Jose Ortiz back aboard.

Play: #7 Warlander (6-1 ML)

Race 9: Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1)

The aforementioned feature event drew a field of 9 led by undefeated ML favorite #2 Laurelin. The Newstead Stables filly comes in off a career best effort in the Saratoga Oaks (G2) when she was three-wide into the lane, but much the best nonetheless. It is difficult to knock the Graham Motion runner, but this is easily the toughest group she has encountered thus far, so I will seek a bit of a bigger price. Trainer Brendan Walsh is off to a white-hot start to the Keeneland fall meet and has a big chance to earn his first QE II Challenge Cup victory with #1 Lush Lips. The daughter of Ten Sovereigns struggled with professionalism early in the year, but has clearly turned a corner mentally. Her win two-back in the Tepin was a big one because she proved she could relax and settle early in races. She was unable to make it two in a row on the ship out west for the Del Mar Oaks (G1), but ran a solid second to a horse that got a great trip up the inside. She has been given nearly two months since the voyage to Southern California, draws the inside, and appears poised for a career best effort on Saturday afternoon. Hopefully, it is good enough to get the money.

Play: #1 Lush Lips (5-1 ML)

Race 10:

The card concludes with this starter allowance event at 6-1/2 furlongs over the main track where the pace should be contentious. I am hopeful that sets things up for #8 Pineland. The Collected gelding has not lived up to expectations thus far, but finds a spot where he should outrun his odds. The Shortleaf Stables runner has competed over the lawn in his last three starts, including a pair of underneath efforts in one-mile turf races on this circuit this summer. He ran fine in those races on the grass, but I prefer him on the dirt where he should get a good setup on the surface switch. Hopefully, he can settle mid-pack early and come with a strong run late at a good price for a barn that is better than some of their statistics suggest.

Play: #8 Pineland (10-1 ML)

Saturday 10/11/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 10/11/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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