Wednesday 10/15/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NCAA-Basketball

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeremy Plonk: Keeneland Spot Plays | Wed. Oct. 15

---

October 14, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

Get Week 3 of the Keeneland Fall Meet off to a fast start with the second of three weekly Wins-Day Wednesday promotions. Take advantage of a 20% Winnings Boost on win bets on this 8-race card (up to $20 in bonuses) -- only when you bet with 1/ST BET or Xpressbet. Here are my top plays on the program.

Keeneland | Race 7 | 4:12 pm ET
#1 Tam Tam (7-2 morning line odds) showed superb speed in her Saratoga debut and should take advantage of the rail draw to win her second lifeetime start. Filly who beat her in New York returned to run third in the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes, so she exits a very good third-place effort. Win bet #1. Exacta 1-5 with longshot rookie #5 LIve Life. Daily Double 1-5 to next pick.

Keeneland | Race 8 | 4:44 pm ET
#5 Tales of the Heart (4-1 morning line odds) gets top billing with the scratch of Mechaya. She's drawn beautifully in this capacity-field turf sprint and should be flying late. Mike Maker barn won similiar races here in 2021 and 2023 Fall Meets at 9-1 juicy prices and he's historically been one of the best Week 3 barns at Keeneland in Fall Meets. Win bet #5. Exacta 5-11 bigger, 11-5 smaller with #11 Bundchen.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Happy Valley | October 15, 2025

---

October 14, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

As we prep for a huge weekend for Hong Kong racing, we’ve got a nice appetizer Wednesday morning at Happy Valley. And just like the Happy Valley in our corner of the globe, we’re going to be doing some firing. Unlike our Happy Valley, however, we’re looking to walk away with plenty of Franklin’s rather than just losing the one.

Helpful Resources

Happy Valley – October 15
HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...se=ST&RaceNo=1


Race 2 | 1650M | Class 4
Win – #1 SAMARKAND
Grade: B

Notes: This plays more against the Morning Line favorite, NORTHERN BEAST, than it is a ringing endorsement of SAMARKAND. There doesn’t appear to be a ton of early pace in this race, and I think that sets up a bit better for SAMARKAND who tends to run his best when he can hang a length or so off the lead. NORTHERN BEAST draws the rail here, and will have to spend some of his effort early to fight off early contenders for his own preferred spot of a couple lengths off a front-runner. The race feels like it could eat up NORTHERN BEAST by the time they hit the final stretch, and I think SAMARKAND will love cutting back to just over a mile from his nine-furlong try last out. At 5/1 on the Morning Line, I like SAMARKAND to get home at a playable price.

Race 3 | 1200M | Class 4
Quinella Box – 3,5,12
Grade: B

Notes: The third race on the card is a bout between a lot of lightly raced runners in Hong Kong. A few of these newbies jump out with some impressive first runs and Morning Line prices that feel fair given their resumes, but may be under-selling their efforts. ARGENTO OCEAN and TELECOM POWER are both strong contenders according to my numbers. These two are more likely to take some money at the windows than some of the others, but I think they are deserving of that investment. One of the two will likely be at the top of the tote board, but I like a price to sneak up there with them. PERIDOT has only run twice in Hong Kong, once where he looked like a rookie and the other over a yielding track that didn’t bode well for him. He moves from Sha Tin to Happy Valley, and I think a good condition on the track and change of scenery might be enough to make his raw speed figures show up in the past performances. Let’s box these three in the Quinella and hope they run their best races.


Race 6 | 1200M | Class 4
Win - #3 TOURBILLON GOLFER
Grade: A

Notes: As much as I didn’t want to pick this horse so I wouldn’t have to spell TOURBILLON GOLFER repeatedly, my numbers paint this gelding as the clear standout in the field. He had two massive runs that came up just short at Sha Tin last season. He has his tune-up run in the books to start the new year. Zac Purton is back up for another try on this four-year-old. It’s hard to paint a bad picture, especially when the Morning Line favorite has run only twice at shorter distances and faded each time. The price is certainly not going to be huge here, but I think this is the race where Purton and Yiu figure out their strategy for an obviously talented runner and hit the wire first.

Good luck!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Albuquerque
PURCHASE

Albuquerque - Race 5	Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta / Last Leg Pick 3
Claiming $6,250 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $14,900 • Post: 7:45P
FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * DISTORTED GUY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. RUNNING BEAR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarte r Horse race). DORA'S STORM: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TAZ MARKING: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a la yoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
6	DISTORTED GUY	4/1	5/1
1	RUNNING BEAR	3/1	6/1
7	DORA'S STORM	5/1	6/1
4	TAZ MARKING	4/1	7/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	AX'S BOUNCY CAT	3	7/2	Front-runner	65	47	79.3	45.9	36.9
7	DORA'S STORM	7	5/1	Front-runner	65	61	56.0	46.0	39.5
1	RUNNING BEAR	1	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	75	60	76.0	48.4	40.4
6	DISTORTED GUY	6	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	65	60	75.5	52.8	48.8
4	TAZ MARKING	4	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	59	57.3	46.6	40.1
5	ARBITRO	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	51	51	42.0	44.8	34.8
2	MR. MCFEELY	2	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	45	0.0	15.2	4.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe Indianapolis
PURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 4	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) 50 Cent Pick 5 (Races 4-5-6-7-8)
Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 49 • Purse: $21,000 • Post: 3:43P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS SIRED BY REGISTERED INDIANA STALLIONS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. NANCY'S KITTEN is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BOOTLEGGER JUSTICE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GLITTE R QUEEN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TEMPEST JILL: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ran ks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. NANCY'S KITTEN: Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
6	BOOTLEGGER JUSTICE	9/2	5/1
9	GLITTER QUEEN	4/1	5/1
2	TEMPEST JILL	3/1	7/1
10	NANCY'S KITTEN	10/1	7/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
10	NANCY'S KITTEN	10	10/1	Front-runner	49	34	36.3	29.2	15.7
7	RUTHIE OZARK	7	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	30.3	31.7	24.2
9	GLITTER QUEEN	9	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	54	49	28.0	36.2	27.2
6	BOOTLEGGER JUSTICE	6	9/2	Trailer	52	46	22.8	43.6	39.6
5	COVER ART	5	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	16.1	20.9	11.4
2	TEMPEST JILL	2	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	51	48	14.2	33.2	28.7
3	SASSY JULIA	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	45	25	48.2	19.0	2.5
4	HONEY'S ON FIRE	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	39.9	18.2	6.2
11	TAPIT CHARM	11	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	49	34	22.0	22.0	9.5
1	JELLO BEAN	1	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	35	19.5	18.2	1.7

Unknown Running Style: TOTAL LUNA ECLIPSE (15/1) [Jockey: Murrill Mitchell - Trainer: Douglass Devarus].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 3 - Allowance - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $46240 Class Rating: 92

IND - R8 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $12,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 UNWORKABLE 8/1
# 2 SEXAGENARIAN 4/1
# 1 SPOKE 6/1

My selection here is UNWORKABLE particularly if the morning line of 8/1 holds. Acevedo has one of the most respectable winning percentages in this group of animals with entries running at this distance and surface. SEXAGENARIAN - Recent figs for the rider - 20 win percent - make this colt stand out in this group. Will most likely compete admirably in the pace contest which bodes well with this field. SPOKE - Make a note that this horse runs on Lasix today. Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of very good win percentage - 16 percent - at this distance & surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Mountaineer Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:40pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 66

Rating:

#6 RAISE THE PRAISE (ML=7/2)
#3 HALO CITY (ML=6/5)
#4 MAUREENLOVESFRANK (ML=3/1)


RAISE THE PRAISE - This rider/handler duo has been producing a very beneficial ROI, right at +125. The September 16th event at Mountaineer Park was at a class level of (83). Dropping to a lower level considerably, so she should be in a good spot. Just see her recent speed fig, 67. That one looks good in this field. In my secret list of handicapping angles, this is a good one. Horse's last two speed figs are higher than today's class rating. To me, that's a good indication we have a strong contender here. Got to like a runner who can make up a ton of ground in the stretch. This mare came flying late sprinting last time out and should relish the longer distance of today's race. HALO CITY - Last race was at Belmont at the Big A in a race with an Equibase class figure of 77. Dropping considerably in class figure this time puts her in a solid position in this race. She has the topmost earnings per race entered. Check out this one. MAUREENLOVESFRANK - Mare looks like the lone speed here. She may turn the race into a procession. This mare is in superb form right now. Finished third last time out and comes back rapidly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SUGAR BRITCHES (ML=8/1),

SUGAR BRITCHES - The speed figures are going downward. I'm not playing this questionable contender off of that trend.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 RAISE THE PRAISE to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 4 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11500 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 15, 2025. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 LA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 11 GLOBAL STAGE 8/1
# 1 PLAY RULE 10/1
# 3 FAHAN 6/1

GLOBAL STAGE is my choice especially at 8/1. Handler boasts strong win figs at this distance and surface. May go off at a solid price and has some positive attributes going for him. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the field lately. PLAY RULE - Will almost certainly compete soundly in the early speed contest which bodes well with this field. FAHAN - Has very strong Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a bet in this event.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Parx Racing - Race #9 - Post: 4:20pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $35,000 Class Rating: 98

Rating:

#1 JAMIE DREAMS (ML=8/1)
#2 EXCELLORATOR (ML=2/1)
#4 FIRST GLIMPSE (ML=4/1)


JAMIE DREAMS - Ran on the wrong surface in his last event. The speed rating of 105 on May 3rd at Parx Racing two races back is good enough to win this contest. Believe in this horse. No other viable early speed gives this horse a strong chance at the winner's circle. This horse didn't run well on the soft turf in his last race around the track at Laurel. You may want to ignore that showing. EXCELLORATOR - Based on the TrackMaster data I've reviewed, this gelding should run well off the vacation. Another way to judge class is earnings per start. This mount has the highest in the field. I think he'll be close at the end. Ness moves this one here to Parx Racing from Laurel. Looking at the horse's PP lines, he has shown the ability to win at different tracks. FIRST GLIMPSE - Don't often see a positive return on investment like +35. This rider/conditioner tandem has done well together over the last year. I like to wager on this handicapping theory, a thoroughbred coming back off a good outing within the last 30 days.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 EXPENSIVE CUT (ML=9/2), #3 ANALOG JONES (ML=8/1), #7 HE'S GOT SWAGGER (ML=8/1),

EXPENSIVE CUT - The speed rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's affair. Mark this thoroughbred as a possibly overvalued contestant. ANALOG JONES - This pony hasn't been close at the wire of late. HE'S GOT SWAGGER - I cannot play this continual non-winner. Gets the job finished now and then.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #1 JAMIE DREAMS to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	1 with [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,2,4] with [1,2,4] with [1,2,3,4,7] with [1,2,3,4,7] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Keeneland Tip Sheet - October 15

Oct. 14, 2025

Race #1
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:00 PM ET
$57,000.00

Race 1 Claiming

Win	12-1	7	Captivated Drama	G Saez
Place	5-2	1	Chiringo	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	4-1	2	Pure Panic	T Gaffalione
Wild card	3-1	4	Macron	A Cedillo
Alternate 1	9-2	3	I Got No Munny	E Morales
Alternate 2	6-1	6	Princip	J A Torres

Exacta 7-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/7 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX
Race #2
Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:32 PM ET
Best Bet #3 UNCASHED
$69,000.00

Race 2 Starter Allowance

Win	7-2	3	Uncashed	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	8-1	2	Unlimitedpotential	J A Torres
Show	1-1	4	Pinfire	A Concepcion
Wild card	9-2	5	Payne	C A Torres
Alternate 1	6-1	7	Alternate Reality	J L Ortiz
Alternate 2	20-1	1	Shotshell	A Cedillo

Exacta 3-2 BOX, 2-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/4 BOX, 2/4/5 BOX
Race #3
Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 02:04 PM ET
$58,000.00

Race 3 Claiming

Win	12-1	2	Princess Ny	L Saez
Place	3-1	6	Miss Tifeye	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	7-5	5	Shes a Swede	E Esquivel
Wild card	8-1	4	Planet Clare	A Beschizza
Alternate 1	6-1	1	Goldenageactress	J L Ortiz
Alternate 2	9-2	7	Parking Lot Pours	E Morales

Exacta 2-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
Trifecta 2/5/6 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX
Race #4
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:36 PM ET
Best Bet #7 GOLDEN DEGREE
$69,000.00

Race 4 Claiming

Win	8-5	7	Golden Degree	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	10-1	2	Miss Arlington	J Loveberry
Show	5-2	5	Greek Heiress	J L Ortiz
Wild card	8-1	3	September Magic	T Gaffalione
Alternate 1	6-1	1	Battleshipper	E Morales
Alternate 2	20-1	4	Run Camila Run	A Cedillo

Exacta 7-2 BOX, 2-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
Trifecta 2/5/7 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX
Race #5
Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:08 PM ET
Best Bet #7 HAFU
$53,000.00

Race 5 Maiden Claiming

Win	5-1	7	Hafu	M Gutierrez
Place	8-1	1	Barstool	I Moncada
Show	6-1	3	Dr Fenn	E Morales
Wild card	8-1	13	Alter Boy	J McKee
Alternate 1	10-1	2	Secreto Uno	A Concepcion
Alternate 2	15-1	14	Sierra Power	A Calleja

Exacta 7-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-13 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/7 BOX, 1/3/13 BOX
Race #6
Turf 1 1/2 Miles - Post Time: 03:40 PM ET
$130,000.00

Race 6 Allowance

Win	9-2	4	Poppy the Princess	J R Leparoux
Place	7-5	5	Ayra Stark	J L Ortiz
Show	7-2	6	Royal Suite	I Ortiz Jr.
Wild card	3-1	2	Kiss Blue	T Gaffalione
Alternate 1	20-1	3	Vinos Angel	W A Rodriguez
Alternate 2	30-1	1	Statement Made	S Doyle

Exacta 4-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-2 BOX
Trifecta 4/5/6 BOX, 2/5/6 BOX
Race #7
Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:12 PM ET
$110,000.00

Race 7 Maiden Special Weight

Win	5-2	10	Bonne Sante	L Saez
Place	7-2	1	Tam Tam	J L Ortiz
Show	10-1	3	Rockin Robin	I Ortiz Jr.
Wild card	10-1	7	Cord of Hope	J R Velazquez
Alternate 1	12-1	6	Essential Coffee	T Gaffalione
Alternate 2	6-1	12	Nycon	J Rosario

Exacta 10-1 BOX, 1-3 BOX, 3-7 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/10 BOX, 1/3/7 BOX
Race #8
Turf 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:44 PM ET
$120,000.00

Race 8 Allowance

Win	6-1	11	Bundchen	J Rosario
Place	3-1	3	Mechaya	B Curtis
Show	5-1	2	Dangherecomesshang	V Espinoza
Wild card	15-1	8	Judith	L Dettori
Alternate 1	10-1	15	Epic Style	F Geroux
Alternate 2	8-1	4	Lost and Found	J A Torres

Exacta 11-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX
Trifecta 2/3/11 BOX, 2/3/8 BOX