Sunday 10/19/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2025, 07:36 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

October 19, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

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Northfield Park has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EDT)

2-Not Today (7/2)-Gets some needed class relief and drops to the level that is below where it won at Nfld recently. Chris Lems should be able to work an efficient trip and looks like a main player.
4-Great Service (3-1)-Steps up after winning handily in the 2nd race for the Brandon Presto barn. Left from post 4 last time and Ronnie Wrenn takes over tonight, and he could try the same plan. Will respect chances of doubling up despite the class hike.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EDT)

1-Bismarkduplessis N (7/2)-Has beaten the NW6500 in 2 straight without an issue and now will meet a test on this class hike. The New Zealand bred has been impressive in both stateside starts. Draws well and will respect chances of the win streak continuing.
4-Midwind Beach Boy (3-1)-Aaron Merriman is a master at finding a way to win and this 4-year-old is difficult to leave off the ticket. My take is that the Burke trainee will have a tough time wring this field but a pocket trip is possible, and that could also work for a picture.
5-Aussie Scotter A (7/2)-Willing to include the Presto trainee who took advantage of a great trip and came out of the pocket for a picture. If there is a speed duel and the fractions are hot this veteran could stalk and roll by down the lane.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EDT)

3-Sure Thing Captain (5/2)-This level will be a test and hasn't been able to pass anyone down the lane in the last 3 races. Merriman will get him play off the gate and has beaten this kind before. Could do it again with the right trip.
7-Sinbad N (9-1)-Finished 2nd after being parked the mile leaving from post 7 at 2/5. That effort was with Dan Noble at the controls. Now it is 9-1 in the program versus the same kind although this could be a deeper field and Brandon Rhodes steers. Has the gate speed to get a good seat and at this price will use in only its 3rd start at Nfld.
8-Night Shadow (2-1)-Beat #3 leaving from post 7 last time and didn't get the smoothest of trips. Ronnie Wrenn will be out and rolling and it would be no shock if the veteran grinds its way to the top and doesn't look back.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EDT)

2-Barbados (8/5)-This 10-year-old put in a new mark at Nfld winning in 152.4 on 10-10 and now steps up a couple of levels. Merriman gets the call as this will be 1st start in the Kreiser barn and that outfit posts 19% winners off a claim.
6-Bullvillespandemic (7-1)-Beat similar on 9-7 and then stepped up and won again. But the last 2 efforts have been dull and now drops to a comfortable spot to get back on the winning side of the ledger. Will look for an aggressive steer and should be a threat at a solid price with a smooth trip.

$1 Late Pick 4

2,4/1,4,5/3,7,8/2,6
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2025, 07:37 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita Park - Race #4

#4 Otto's Magic	Not sure you're getting any kind of price here, but the debut was solid and should set him up for better at this mile trip that seems within his scope. Should be in a great spot throughout and might drill these.
#1 Rich Reward	He looks like a logical enough alternative, but he's got to turn the tables on a couple who finished in front of him last time out. Route spot provides some upside potential.
#5 Keithing Thunder	He has turned into a pretty honest finisher, but the top pair figure to get the jump on him here, and that might leave him scrambling late for a spot underneath. Not impossible, but prefer one of the top two.
Race Summary	Otto's Magic could be a handful here with any move forward off a good debut try, and he should get a perfect trip right up on the splits.

Santa Anita Park - Race #7

#8 Sakura Flavor	Think she's worth a bit of a look in this spot while getting some more ground to work with, as the better races on her page came at these kinds of trips. That said, they also came back in 2024 -- so demand a solid number to see if she can turn things around.
#2 Eternal Reign	Her form is pretty honest outside of that one graded stakes try, but she always takes a little bit of cash and has made a decent habit of settling for a share. Could find one of them too tough again today.
#5 Cornelia Fort	She's an honest type who fits at this kind of level, but it has been some time since she won a race and I prefer to let her beat me today.
Race Summary	Sakura Flavor has some appeal for me while trying this longer trip, and I'm hoping that will help wake her up after a couple of really flat runs at Del Mar off the bench.

Santa Anita Park - Race #9

#12 Columnist	There isn't a whole lot of serious pace signed on in here, so I am hoping he'll be able to flash some pace from out here and find a decent spot into the turn. Any upside off the first turf run makes him tough.
#8 Doing Time	The last two tries both stack up nicely in here, but neither of them were that exciting, so I'm wondering if he's more likely in the underneath spots again.
#2 Booked Clubhouse	He and the guy outside of him both look like capable finishing threats, but I'm a bit concerned about the potential race shape today -- want someone from maybe a bit closer.
Race Summary	Columnist has some pace to find a good spot in a race without many proven forward players, and that may give him the jump on the more serious players from off the pace.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2025, 07:40 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Special Wager
PURCHASE

Special Wager - Race 4	Leg D of the Sunset Six
Optional Claiming $50,000 • 1 1/4 Miles • Downhill Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 100 • Purse: $61,000 • Post: 7:04P
SA - R7 - DOWNHILL TURF FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $21,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED)(HORSES ENTERED FOR THE ALLOWANCE ARE PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. ETERNAL REIGN (IRE) is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ETERNAL REIGN (IRE): Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CORNELIA FORT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	ETERNAL REIGN (IRE)	5/2	7/2
5	CORNELIA FORT	7/2	4/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SWEET DELTA DAWN	1	30/1	Front-runner	92	91	94.6	85.9	74.4
2	ETERNAL REIGN (IRE)	2	5/2	Stalker	100	101	106.0	98.4	94.4
7	RUBY CANTU	6	8/1	Stalker	90	84	102.0	83.4	72.4
5	CORNELIA FORT	4	7/2	Stalker	99	99	90.0	95.6	92.1
6	THEBESTISYETTOBE (IRE)	5	3/1	Trailer	98	98	90.1	94.1	88.1
4	HEY JESSIE	3	6/1	Trailer	100	95	78.0	89.4	78.4
8	SAKURA FLAVOR (IRE)	7	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	96	94	87.5	87.5	79.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2025, 07:41 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 2	Pick 6 / Exacta / Daily Double 2-3
Claiming $4,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 57 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 3:10P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 19 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 19 ALLOWED 3 LBS. 4# A DEBTS ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Class. DRE ME LESS is the Dominant Class of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DRE ME LESS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SNOWZILLA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the d istance/surface.
4	DRE ME LESS	5/1	5/2
2	SNOWZILLA	4/1	4/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	SNOWZILLA	2	4/1	Front-runner	66	54	65.6	52.8	49.8
4	DRE ME LESS	4	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	71	56.0	55.4	52.9
5	FLATTER GIRL	5	2/1	Trailer	59	50	51.6	52.2	46.2
1	IRISH BABE	1	7/2	Trailer	55	46	41.3	31.6	23.1
3	KEONI'S GIRL	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	34	32	44.6	32.2	22.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2025, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belmont at the Big A

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $32000 Class Rating: 90

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 19, 2025 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 AMUNDSON 8/5
# 9 GRAYWING 5/1
# 5 FITZPATRICK 4/1

AMUNDSON is the strongest bet in this race. With a strong 85 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's outing. With Prat getting the mount, watch out for this racer. Had one of the most competitive speed figures of this group in his last competition. GRAYWING - He has garnered formidable numbers under today's conditions and ought to fare well against this group of horses. Win percentage one of the top in this group. FITZPATRICK - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group recently. Could beat this group given the 77 speed rating put up in his last outing.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2025, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Keeneland - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $51,000 Class Rating: 96

Rating:

#8 C F V BULLET (ML=8/5)
#2 INTERLOCK EMPIRE (ML=6/1)

C F V BULLET - Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a solid race on September 25th. This gelding's last speed rating earned on September 25th is tops in last race speed figs. Past performance data show this thoroughbred with 3 improving Equibase speed figures. Saez should be on a live one in this event. INTERLOCK EMPIRE - This horse is in great demand coming off two claims in his last two starts. Don't overlook this gelding in your gambling today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 TRES SOLES (ML=4/1), #6 EMBER (ML=8/1), #1 CARILLO (ML=8/1),

TRES SOLES - This gelding notched a fig in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race. EMBER - The speed rating last race out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this animal as a likely underpriced contender. CARILLO - Speed ratings tell a tale of lessening physical condition. This gelding garnered a speed figure in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#8 C F V BULLET is the play if we get odds of 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2025, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Santa Anita - Race #8 - Post: 4:34pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#9 BENEFICIAL (ML=2/1)
#6 FAR OVER LOADED (ML=8/1)

BENEFICIAL - Was in a $50,000 Maiden Claiming race at Santa Anita last out. That race had a class rating of 92 and he is moving down in today's race. A certain win candidate. I do like the fact this gelding is back in a race so quickly. Has a good chance to break maiden going to the dirt in this race. I believe the addition of blinkers today will help this gelding focus his attention on racing. FAR OVER LOADED - I figure that this shorter distance should help this gelding. Don't often see a positive ROI like +42. This jock/handler pair has done well together over the last year. Coming off a sixth place finish at Los Alamitos (Thoroughbre, some may skip this horse. I'm not. He just missed hitting the show spot, and has pretty good morning odds today. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SEATTLE SURF (ML=5/2), #7 IRISH WHISKEY (ML=6/1), #4 CANCUN NATIVE (ML=6/1),

SEATTLE SURF - This horse doesn't have a champion's state of mind. Often finishes second or third. Pace is so important, and this speedy one is going to have a speed battle on his hands. IRISH WHISKEY - Pace is so critical, and this speed merchant is going to have a ding-dong battle on his hands. CANCUN NATIVE - This gelding garnered a speed rating in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#9 BENEFICIAL to win at post-time odds of 9/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2025, 07:42 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Allowance - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $130000 Class Rating: 100

KEE-R6 - FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER SINCE AUGUST 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. IN THE EVENT THAT THIS

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 12 NIKI NINE DOORS 6/1
# 7 DALA 8/1
# 6 BIG TROUBLE 9/5

NIKI NINE DOORS is my choice. Has performed quite well recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 95 avg speed fig. Reason to like this filly as she has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. Could provide positive gains based on solid recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 94. DALA - Looks very good for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figures in turf sprint races recently. This animal has a terrific win percentage in turf sprints. BIG TROUBLE - Should land on the board without any worries. Is a solid contender - given the 100 speed rating from her most recent race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-19-2025, 08:15 AM

Sunday Trends

■ Raiders at Chiefs (-12, 45?): The Raiders have played the Chiefs surprisingly tough in Kansas City, covering the past three and four of five with two outright wins. The Chiefs have covered three of their past 10 home regular-season games. Edge: Raiders and slight to under.

■ Rams (-3, 44?) vs. Jaguars (London): The Rams have covered nine of their past 10 away from SoFi Stadium. The Jaguars have won and covered three of four games in London the past two seasons. Edge: Rams.

■ Saints at Bears (-5, 47): The Saints have covered two of their past eight road games. The Bears have won and covered their past three games. Edge: Slight to Bears.

■ Dolphins at Browns (-2?, 37?): The Dolphins’ past five games and 12 of 17 have gone over the total. The Browns have lost and failed to cover their past three games and are on a 6-19 spread skid. Edge: Slight to Dolphins.

■ Patriots (-7, 43) at Titans: Patriots coach Mike Vrabel returns to Tennessee, where he coached for six seasons. Mike McCoy makes his debut as Titans coach after Brian Callahan was fired. The Patriots have won and covered three straight. The Titans have failed to cover their past 10 home games and are on a 4-19 spread skid overall. Edge: Patriots and slight to over.

■ Eagles (-2, 44) at Vikings: The Vikings have gone over the total in four of five games this season. They have covered four of their past five as underdogs. The Eagles have lost two straight for the first time since 2023. Edge: Slight to Vikings and over.

■ Panthers (-1?, 42) at Jets: The Panthers have won and covered three of their past four games and are on an 11-4 against-the-spread run. The Jets have covered three of their past 10 home games. The Jets’ Justin Fields is 5-24 as an NFL starting quarterback. Edge: Panthers and slight to over.

■ Giants at Broncos (-7, 40?): Five of the Giants’ past seven road games have gone under the total. The Broncos’ past three home games have gone under the total. Edge: Under.

■ Colts at Chargers (-1?, 48?): The Colts have covered four of six games this season. The Chargers have failed to cover their past three games. Edge: Colts and slight to under.

■ Commanders (-1?, 55) at Cowboys: The Cowboys have covered seven of the past eight meetings between the teams, and eight of the past 13 have gone over the total. Dallas is on a 9-3 over run at home. Edge: Over and slight to Cowboys.

■ Packers (-7, 45) at Cardinals: The Packers have failed to cover three straight and are on a 2-6 ATS slump. The Cardinals have covered seven straight as underdogs. Five of their past six home games have gone over the total. Edge: Cardinals and over.

■ Falcons at 49ers (-2, 47?): Four of the Falcons’ five games this season have gone under the total, and they have won and covered three of their past four. The 49ers are on a 4-14 ATS skid in home games. Edge: Slight to Falcons and under.