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Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Happy Valley | October 22, 2025

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October 21, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

We’re on the comedown from KA YING RISING’s ascent of The Everest (G1), but the action is back at Happy Valley to scratch that midweek itch. Leading jockey, and reigning Everest champion, Zac Purton is on the hunt for his 1,900th win in Hong Kong and will have seven mounts to try to reach the astonishing milestone. Nine races are carded so let’s get into it!

Helpful Resources

Happy Valley – October 22

HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...se=ST&RaceNo=1


Race 1 | 1000M | Class 4

Win – #2 SUPER SIXTY
Grade: A

Notes: The card opens with a Class 4 sprint featuring a handful of first-time starters and a lot of inexperience. I’m willing to play against that and chase one of the more proven, experienced runners in SUPER SIXTY who has been tagged with a 6/1 Morning Line. At his best, I don’t think he’s touchable in this field, and his resume reflects that. I don’t think he’ll go off at 6/1, but his ratings, favorable draw and recent performances are enough for me to pick this runner outright to kick things off.


Race 3 | 1200M | Class 4

Win - #12 PATCH OF WATCH
Grade: B

Notes: This selection is a bit tough to make on paper since there are two very clear early speed horses, and I’m picking one of them, but I think the weight being carried will make all the difference. MEGA BONUS rates highest in the field according to my numbers, but he’ll be carrying six pounds more than the next heaviest rider and when he’s forced to carry this much he doesn’t quite run up to his number. PATCH OF WATCH will only have 117 pounds aboard, and I think that’ll make up the minor difference between the two. I expect PATCH OF WATCH to go for the lead early alongside MEGA BONUS, but I anticipate MEGA BONUS will fade down the stretch and open things up for our top choice to be the remaining runner. I don’t see a ton of quality closers in the field, at least very few that have a solid PBR number or record at this distance, and I’m willing to bank on this sprint going to the fastest horse carrying the more favorable amount of weight.


Race 4 | 1200M | Class 4

Win - #4 RISING POHENIX
Grade: A

Notes: At long last, in Race 4, Zac Purton will get his 1,900th win aboard RISING PHOENIX. The upside of this four-year-old, on paper, is better than nearly anyone in the field. Morning Line favorite, KING OBERON, will be his toughest competitor running well in front of this field as they head down the stretch. I think picking up Purton will give our top choice his best chance at being well-positioned for a breakthrough win at a 10/1 Morning Line. The pace isn’t ideal here for RISING PHOENIX, but I think he is best fit for these six-furlong sprints and it will show tomorrow morning at Happy Valley.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#3 Just Fancy Free	She paid $37 at Parx before eventually being DQ'ed for the rider's crop use -- it didn't look particularly noteworthy to me, but I don't make the rules. That said, I really like the way she did it that day, controlling the pace and coming out a notch at a time to hold off a persistent challenge throughout the turn and into the lane. I'll let her run back to that and land this on the rise.
#4 Prancin inthe Dark	She hasn't seen out her local races all that well, but she has tried better groups in those special weight spots and might appreciate the more modest crew today. One of the ones.
#8 Unlimited Gold	Worried that she might be the main roadblock for the top choice -- she draws outside of that one and is quick enough to show attacking pace. Wouldn't argue too hard with you.
Race Summary	Just Fancy Free looked good handling a cheap crew at Parx before being disqualified from that win for a violation. Hoping that form will transfer to the local footing today.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#9 Arrogante	Honest finisher has been reliable with some better groups here this season, and I think she's going to trip out while racing in behind a handful of pace and chasing types who should keep the tempo honest. Feel like she's supposed to score here.
#8 Valiant Victoria	She looked good last out in that easy win, but she has otherwise been known to come up a little short late, so I worry about the potential race flow for her today. The draw gives her the best chance of the pace.
#1 Whats Goin On	Think I'd want her on the tickets, too, as she has a couple of tactical races on her page in which she still plugged away late, and I could see her sort of getting towed into the pace turning for home if a few of these hook up early.
Race Summary	Fun race, and I think Arrogante should get the run of it with her finishing form, and her page looks a lot better when you just isolate the local tries. Tough today.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#3 King Reigert	Not thrilled about the direction his form has gone, but the three best races on his page have come at this level, so I'm hoping the class cut wakes him up a little bit while getting a good tracking run.
#10 Dominator C.	He's short on excuses at this point, and I thought he'd finally get the job done last time out when he came up just short again. Obvious player on baseline form, but I'd want just about all of that 7/2 ML price to give him a look here.
#11 My Vacation	He's the wildcard, but I worry he's going to take cash while coming in to try the local footing for the first time from a wide draw going two turns. Think he fits and should be finishing up well, but I'm not sure the risk vs. reward is going to be there on the board.
Race Summary	King Reigert has been dull in a couple of starts since coming into the new barn, but they get him back to the level of the claim today -- a level at which he has done all his best work.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Penn National - Race #3

#10 KYLIE’S KISS (4-1)	Kreiser firster showing good speed in the a.m.; dam loved to win.
#7 ROCK ETIQUETTE (2-1)	Tries to upgrade five consecutive in-the-money finishes in MSW ranks.
#5 ROSIE OUTLOOK (5-1)	Took debut money, didn’t run to works for 21-percent second-out barn.
Race Summary	KYLIE’S KISS, one of seven first-time starters entered in the 11-horse field, is zipping along in the morning for her debut. She is trying to follow the footsteps of her dam, Onemoresweetkiss, who parlayed a good first gear into a 71/14-14-13 record and $200,000 in earnings. Bet to win and place and play a 10/5, 7/ALL trifecta.

Penn National - Race #4

#2 THE GATEKEEPER (10-1)	Inconsistent route form, but he has an upset chance on best.
#6 ROB THE RICH (5-2)	Lone 3-time winner this year, albeit in short fields, one to beat.
#3 SOUTHERN DISTRICT (12-1)	Finished 1-2 in three straight before rank start in latest.
Race Summary	THE GATEKEEPER last won at this distance in the spring, but she finished third to classy, odds-on winner Assembly Point (14-50, $267k) two starts ago and can be excused for fractious post parade behavior in her latest start. The price is right for a win and place bet and a 2-3-6 exacta box.

Penn National - Race #5

#1 MEGA CHANGER (3-1)	Starts fresh, can make good use of her speed in first start for a claiming tag.
#2 ROYALTIESPRINCESS (5-1)	Overland trip on sloppy track took its toll in well-backed debut.
#6 GOLDEN DANCER (5-2)	Third in last pair, should be in good forward striking spot in here.
Race Summary	MEGA CHANGER chased the 4-to-5 favorite and back-pedaled in her 7F debut against MSW New York breds at Aqueduct, now drops into a realistic spot for her fourth start after five months idle. She draws the rail and could take some catching on the cutback to 5-1/2F. Bet to win and place and play 1-2 and 1-6 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs
PURCHASE

Evangeline Downs - Race 4	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)
Optional Claiming $20,000 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 98 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 6:50P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * SAN LORENZO FIRULAIS: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. FAST FLYER 123: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. EL TURISTA: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. JESS A WILD CANDY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. JESS JUMPN DYNASTY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
10	SAN LORENZO FIRULAIS	15/1	6/1
8	FAST FLYER 123	2/1	6/1
6	EL TURISTA	3/1	7/1
1	JESS A WILD CANDY	15/1	8/1
4	JESS JUMPN DYNASTY	20/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	JESS A WILD CANDY	1	15/1	Slow	89	90	6.5	0.0	0.0
2	LADY COCO PILOTO	2	6/1	Average	87	84	3.6	0.0	0.0
3	JESS SO BLESSED	3	9/2	Average	89	81	4.2	0.0	0.0
4	JESS JUMPN DYNASTY	4	20/1	Slow	91	86	6.4	0.0	0.0
5	BELLA CAN FLY	5	12/1	Average	85	85	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	EL TURISTA	6	3/1	Fast	94	87	1.9	0.0	0.0
7	THE FISCAL FLYER	7	20/1	Fast	88	79	3.4	0.0	0.0
8	FAST FLYER 123	8	2/1	Fast	96	86	3.4	0.0	0.0
9	JRS TOASTED CARTEL	9	10/1	Average	84	86	4.3	0.0	0.0
10	SAN LORENZO FIRULAIS	10	15/1	Fast	91	91	2.4	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Special Wager
PURCHASE

Special Wager - Race 2	Leg 2 of the Horseshoe Turf Pick 3
Claiming $12,500 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $23,800 • Post: 4:26P
IND - R5 - (RAIL AT 36 FEET). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR THREE YEAR OLDS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 22 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 INDIANA BRED MAIDENS AND INDIANA BRED CLAIMING RACES FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. TEMPORARILYFOREVER is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * JACK'S SUMMER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. TEMPORARILYFOREVER: H orse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. QUEEN OF SALSA: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distanc e/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). TALENT SHOW: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Hor se ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
12	JACK'S SUMMER	5/1	9/2
15	TEMPORARILYFOREVER	15/1	6/1
7	QUEEN OF SALSA	8/1	8/1
8	TALENT SHOW	10/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
15	TEMPORARILYFOREVER	15	15/1	Front-runner	70	74	94.8	76.8	62.3
12	JACK'S SUMMER	12	5/1	Front-runner	83	83	94.8	75.8	64.3
8	TALENT SHOW	8	10/1	Stalker	82	85	83.4	73.9	63.9
7	QUEEN OF SALSA	7	8/1	Stalker	91	84	75.2	76.8	65.3
1	STORM BAY	1	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	85	72	67.2	72.8	63.3
9	LA ORGULLOSA	9	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	76	61.7	67.4	45.4
14	SUPER STORMY	14	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	73	73	56.8	59.8	34.3
5	RED ROSE ROCKIN	5	4/1	Trailer	82	72	70.4	71.4	61.4
4	SWEET ENCHANTMENT	4	6/1	Trailer	78	69	63.4	71.2	60.2
11	SPICY ITALIAN	11	6/1	Trailer	81	72	58.5	67.9	55.9
3	GREATEST MOMENT	3	30/1	Trailer	73	60	43.2	54.6	30.6
10	SKIPPINJUSTICE	10	30/1	Trailer	77	57	35.4	62.2	39.7
13	CHAR	13	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	56	61.5	56.2	29.2
2	JUICY JUSTICE	2	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	59	50.6	61.6	44.6
6	FOURFIFTYSEVEN	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	91	86	26.5	52.1	44.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ajax Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 11 - Speed Index Race - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $9500 Class Rating: 73

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WITH AN AVERAGE SPEED INDEX OF 85 AND UNDER OR WITH A SPEED INDEX THAT HAS NEVER BEEN BETTER THAN 90.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 FIESTY FEEBEE 3/1
# 1 MARYLAND MAGIC 5/2
# 3 PRETTY RUNAWAY 10/1

FIESTY FEEBEE is my choice. Will almost certainly go to the lead and should never look back. Ran a strong last race. Like the finishes in the last few races. MARYLAND MAGIC - He should definitely be given consideration given the solid speed figs. Ought to be carefully examined based on the competitive Equibase Speed Figure recorded in the last contest. PRETTY RUNAWAY - Have to examine solely on class, with some of the most competitive class figures of this group of animals. Has performed strongly lately in short races, posting a nifty 77 avg speed figure.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Penn National - Race #5 - Post: 7:41pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 56

Rating:

#1 MEGA CHANGER (ML=3/1)


MEGA CHANGER - Faced tougher last time out at Belmont at the Big A. Based on Equibase class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this one on my list of contenders in this race. Has a good opportunity in this race to break maiden moving to the main track in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 GOLDEN DANCER (ML=5/2), #5 LADY CATALINA (ML=7/2), #2 ROYALTIESPRINCESS (ML=5/1),

GOLDEN DANCER - This racer hasn't been on the track since September 25th. Not even any drills. When scrutinizing today's Equibase class figure, she will have to record a much better speed figure than last time around the track to vie in this dirt sprint. LADY CATALINA - This steed hasn't been close to the winner at the wire recently. This filly hasn't had any strong finishes in short distance races in the last 60 days. ROYALTIESPRINCESS - No picnic to back any mount in a short distance event if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last two months. That was simply not a very good display in the last contest. The addition of front wraps in the last race is usually a sign of deteriorating form.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 MEGA CHANGER is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	1 with 2
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12500 Class Rating: 84

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 22 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 TOOMUCHAINTENOUGH 2/1
# 2 EL ONDEADO 8/1
# 5 WHISKEYINATEACUP 7/2

TOOMUCHAINTENOUGH seems to be the wager in here. Looks decent to be up on the front end at the first call. Has to be given a chance in this race if only for the respectable speed figure recorded in the last contest. Is a strong contender based on numbers garnered lately under today's conditions. EL ONDEADO - Is worth considering and may be a bet - strong speed figures (71 average) at today's distance and surface recently. Gamblers get an edge when playing this conditioner in a dirt sprint race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 1:07pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#1 TAVRIA (ML=3/1)
#3 RAGTAP GIRL (ML=5/2)


TAVRIA - This filly is in fine form. Finished second on September 23rd. This filly recorded a strong speed fig of 73 in her last event. That figure should be lofty enough to triumph today. RAGTAP GIRL - When Sanchez and Arce unite on animals the win percentage has been outstanding at 33. The Arce barn does well with horses off the claim. Just claimed this thoroughbred, expect an improvement

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 ROYAL PRADO (ML=7/2), #6 MIKEY'S SONG (ML=9/2), #4 STARSHIP LEGEND (ML=5/1),

ROYAL PRADO - Didn't close any ground whatsoever on October 14th. Hard to play this time out at the expected odds. MIKEY'S SONG - Difficult to put your dough on the win end of any entrant that finishes second and third as frequently as this one does. Difficult to wager on any horse to turn things around if there is no value to taking the shot. STARSHIP LEGEND - 5/1 is too low of a price to take on this thoroughbred.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #1 TAVRIA to win if you can get at least 9/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None