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Scott Shapiro: Breeders' Cup Friday Exacta-Thon Plays

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October 29, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

It is one of the biggest weeks of the year in thoroughbred racing, so you knew 1/ST BET and Xpressbet would be ready with a massive promotion. I am happy to report you will not be disappointed on Halloween when the first of a two-day $20,000 Exacta-Thon gets started.

Most of you know this one by now given the promo’s popularity, but for those who do not, the goal is to connect on as many $2+ exactas as possible over the course of a card. In this case, those who connect on at least six $2+ exactas will earn an equal split of $7500. The horseplayer(s) that hit the most will split an additional $2500. This offer is valid for both Future Stars Friday and Championship Saturday adding up to twenty dimes on the line over the two-day extravaganza. Here are a few exacta plays I am going to include as part of my attempt to earn a share of the $10k on Friday.


Race 7: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)

This year’s Juvenile Fillies did not attract the strongest group we have ever seen for the 1 1/16-mile event for 2YO gals over the main track, but I am very much looking forward to wagering on it. That is because I do not see much separation between those who are likely to take a lot of public support and those likely to be overlooked.

I like #4 Percy’s Bar most. The Ben Colebrook trainee crossed the wire first in her initial attempt at a route of ground in the Alcibiades (G1) four weeks ago, but was disqualified for interfering with runner-up #5 Tommy Jo. There was probably a foul there, but Tommy Jo was never going by regardless of contact. The Upstart filly has done little wrong thus far and merits serious respect at anything around her 9-2-ML price. That said, I am not willing to go all-in on her running first or second, so I will box her with two of the longest shots on the board. Both #4 Meaning and #8 Super Corredora get major class tests going from MSW competition to the Breeders’ Cup, but this is an underwhelming group. They might be getting good at just the right time.

Play: Exacta Box 3+4+8


Race 9: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)

This year’s Juvenile drew a stronger group than its female counterpart led by 4-5-ML Favorite #8 Ted Noffey. The Spendthrift Farm colt has been perfect through three starts, including a win last out in his first attempt at two-turns in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). He is difficult to knock unless the bottom side of his pedigree catches up with him on the cross-country trip, so I do not have much excitement in trying to beat him. However, I am not willing to key around an odds-on favorite, so I will build my Exacta-Thon play around #2 Blackout Time. The son of Not This Time

was beaten by Ted Noffey at Keeneland last out, but has done little wrong through three starts. The inside draw, Irad Ortiz Jr., and the experience at a route of ground all give him the right to take a significant step forward in So Cal on Friday.

Play: Exacta Key Box 2 with 1+8, Exacta 8-2


Race 10: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1)

The Future Stars Friday finale certainly goes through #14 Gstaad, but the 9-5-ML favorite was done no favors at the draw on Monday evening. The Aidan O’Brien trainee will have to earn it from the 14-hole, which makes him and a few other logicals tough to get excited about given likely trip. I will fade the chalk and key #9 Argos on top. The son of Nyquist finished very well in his first two-turn test getting the best of favorite Wild Desert in the Summer (G1) at Woodbine. Trainer Riley Mott retains the services of jockey Flavien Prat on a colt that is coming into this race off a steady series of drills over the main track at Churchill Downs. A move forward off of his last should put him right there at the wire. I will key him over a few prices, including the maiden #1 Heeere’s Johnny. The Oscar Performance colt has improved in each start and draws favorably along the inside. Do not dismiss him just because he enters his first Grade 1 start without a win.

Play: Exacta 9 with 1+5+7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Century Downs
PURCHASE

Century Downs - Race 7	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Rolling Double Mandatory Payout Pick 4 (Races 7-10)
Claiming $5,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $12,500 • Post: 8:57P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000. ALBERTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. I'VE GOT ALL NITE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * I'VE GOT ALL NITE: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 3 0 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. FASTESTGIRLINTOWN: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster P ower Rating.
4	I'VE GOT ALL NITE	2/1	7/2
5	FASTESTGIRLINTOWN	3/1	9/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	FASTESTGIRLINTOWN	5	3/1	Front-runner	75	75	78.8	68.8	64.8
6	WHEELSUPINTHIRTY	6	20/1	Front-runner	67	66	69.2	55.6	43.1
7	ARIZONA LINDY	7	15/1	Front-runner	66	70	54.0	68.6	58.1
4	I'VE GOT ALL NITE	4	2/1	Alternator/Front-runner	76	80	85.0	73.6	70.1
3	MAGIC TIP	3	7/2	Stalker	73	75	75.4	65.2	60.7
8	KULSUM	8	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	55	53.4	55.8	44.3
1	LITTLE HARPER	1	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	61	52.2	59.8	47.3
2	TEXAS HUMOR	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	68	48.8	64.6	53.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Woodbine
PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race 4	Rolling Double / Exacta / 0.20 Trifecta / 0.20 Superfecta 0.20 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / 0.20 Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)/$1 Swinger
Maiden Optional Claiming $25,0 • 6 Furlongs • All-Weather • Age 2 • CR: 57 • Purse: $49,200 • Post: 6:06P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD ONTARIO SIRED MAIDENS THAT HAVE RACED 3 CONSECUTIVE STARTS IN THE MAIDEN OPTIONAL $40,000 / OS CATEGORY IN 2024-25 AND DID NOT FINISH 2ND THRU 4TH. OR TWO YEAR OLD MAIDEN CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * DAOU: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Ho rse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WUNHAPPY WABBIT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in aver age Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
7	DAOU	5/2	5/2
6	WUNHAPPY WABBIT	4/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	DAOU	7	5/2	Front-runner	62	56	80.2	45.2	41.7
1	CLEAR POSITION	1	15/1	Alternator/Front-runner	0	0	51.9	37.5	30.0
4	DIXIE DOLL	4	12/1	Trailer	0	0	18.0	48.3	43.8
6	WUNHAPPY WABBIT	6	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	56	51	17.2	42.2	34.7
8	HEARTY CHRISTINI	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	1.9	28.4	16.9
5	HOLY MIRAGE	5	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: CHARGETHATMOUNTAIN (8/1) [Jockey: Samuel Jalon L - Trainer: Attard Tino], BLAZING DAMSEL (6/1) [Jockey: Aebly Fraser - Trainer: Carey Julia], SEASHELL SANCTUARY (10/1) [Jockey: Nicholls Keveh - Trainer: Gittens Devon].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 7.5f on the Turf. Purse: $28000 Class Rating: 78

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000. OKLAHOMA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $35,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 FLASH MASTER 10/1
# 9 KARA 7/2
# 2 SHE'S A GOLD LADY 8/1

I think FLASH MASTER is a solid pick especially at such a decent 10/1. Could wake up with Lasix change (with second time Lasix) today. Will probably be one of the early speedsters of the pack going into the halfway point of the race. Ought to be given consideration based on the very good Equibase Speed Fig recorded in the last race. KARA - Biehler has this filly running well and is a strong selection based on the decent Speed Figures earned in sprint races as of late. A solid 86 avg class figure may give this filly a distinct class edge versus this field. SHE'S A GOLD LADY - Has to be given consideration versus this group displaying quite good figs lately and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 72 under similar conditions. She has to be carefully examined given the competitive speed numbers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Churchill Downs - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $55,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#2 DEMI (ML=3/1)
#3 ARGAN (ML=5/1)
#9 SCOOT ALONG (ML=15/1)


DEMI - You'll be generating profits right and left by turning your racing money onto this jock/trainer combination. After the event aboard this horse on September 19th, the jock is going to be in tune with the mare much better. Won her last after shipping in. I like her again. ARGAN - This speedball should benefit from today's shorter distance. Filly scored her last race here on September 25th as a shipper. I think she looks like a winner once again. The 77 last race speed rating looks sound on paper. SCOOT ALONG - Terraza and Martinez partnered up are a handicapper's friend. The Oct 9th clash at Keeneland was at a class level of (89). Dropping down in class ranks drastically, so she should be in a good position.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 RED HOT JEANIE (ML=7/2), #1 ALTERED SHOT (ML=4/1), #7 PROGENY (ML=6/1),

RED HOT JEANIE - Will not be easy for this racer to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the likely underpriced equines list. ALTERED SHOT - Today's event is 6 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a sprint event in the last couple months. Not the greatest of signs. This horse hasn't shown very much in the last couple of contests. PROGENY - The speed rating last time out doesn't fit very well in this contest when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this racer as a likely underlay.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 DEMI to win at post-time odds of 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $47000 Class Rating: 76

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. WHICH HAVE NOT BEEN PERMITTED LASIX WITHIN 48 HOURS OF POST TIME.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 CHRISTMAS JONES 5/1
# 10 GINGER SNAP 10/1
# 9 SIN BOLDLY 5/1

CHRISTMAS JONES looks to be a quite good contender. Looks strong against this field and will almost certainly be one of the front-runners. Has performed well lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 69 avg Equibase Speed Fig. SIN BOLDLY - Could provide positive dividends based on solid recent speed figures with an average of 70. Ought to be given consideration - I like the figures from the last contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Charles Town - Race #5 - Post: 9:02pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,400 Class Rating: 59

Rating:

#2 WRIGHTSVILLE (ML=5/1)
#4 WAR THUNDER (ML=7/2)


WRIGHTSVILLE - Carlisle brings him back again. I advocate you stick with this hot gelding. I sense a pace scenario where the speed will falter, setting up a perfect situation for his late kick. Another way to identify class is earnings per race. This animal has the highest in the field. I think he'll be close at the end. WAR THUNDER - Have to believe this early speed horse has a nice chance on this bullring of a track. A quick move out of the gate, and this one gets position. Have to forget about that last turf race. This gelding should do better hitting the main track in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 MY LUCKY ACE (ML=9/5), #9 DAGUERRE (ML=9/2), #3 RESTRIKE (ML=8/1),

MY LUCKY ACE - Difficult to play any entrant in a short distance event at 9/5 when he hasn't shown any successful efforts in sprints in the last 60 days. DAGUERRE - Improbable for this participant to make a winning move with no success lately in a sprint affair. This pony hasn't been close at the wire of late. Difficult to put any dough on this gelding on the front end. Likes to finish in the money though. RESTRIKE - Unlikely that the speed fig he notched on Sep 19th will hold up in this race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - WRIGHTSVILLE - Has been racing regularly since a layoff. According to my calculations, horses hit their peak cycle in their 3rd or 4th race back. Watch out for this animal in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 WRIGHTSVILLE is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None