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Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Happy Valley | November 5, 2025

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November 4, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

We’re back to our regularly scheduled programming at Happy Valley for your midweek Hong Kong action coming off an incredible Breeders’ Cup weekend. While things change with the racing season in this hemisphere, the news is picking up in Hong Kong with the release of nominations for Hong Kong’s International Races Day on December 14th. With a list including names like Voyage Bubble (Hong Kong Triple Crown winner), Ka Ying Rising, Rebel’s Romance, Minnie Hauk, Croix Du Nord, Los Angeles, and Goliath, the iconic day of racing could quickly turn into a can’t-miss spectacle for racing fans from around the globe.
For now, in the words of the once great Bill Belichick, we’re on the Happy Valley.

Helpful Resources

Happy Valley – November 5
HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...se=ST&RaceNo=1


Race 1 | 2200M | Class 5
Exacta 1 w/ 6
Grade: B

Notes: The card opens with an eleven-furlong bout in the Class 5 division between just seven familiar foes. #1 STORM RUNNER appears to be on track to be the best in this field by what could be a wide margin. In his only try at this distance, he came up just short, but gets to take another shot at it after a strong performance on October 8th where he ran out of track at nine furlongs. Zac Purton will be up and I think this gelding will love the extra distance. #5 LEATHER MASTER has a victory at this distance, but the six-year-old gelding doesn’t seem to be trending in the right direction. Likewise for #7 SUPER HONG KONG who is 0-for-16 in his last two seasons in Hong Kong. Instead, I’m looking towards #6 MR ALADDIN to complete our cold exacta. MR ALADDIN ran his best race in recent tries after just four days off, going from being eased up on the All-Weather surface at Sha Tin to running against STORM RUNNER at Happy Valley and finishing 3.5 lengths back. MR ALADDIN ran last week at Sha Tin as they try his short-rest routine once more. Personally, I think STORM RUNNER will be too much, but if the pattern plays out as expected, this six-year-old will have a great shot storming home late and passing tiring rivals for a commendable second-place finish.


Race 3 | 1200M | Class 4
Quinella – 2 w/ 9,11
Grade: B

Notes: #2 TOURBILLON GOLFER is a horse that Hong Kong followers have been waiting to see break through since his debut last summer. In four tries, he has been within striking distance in all four but hasn’t found his way across the finish line. To his benefit, this field is full of runners who are coming up just short and bouncing around the Class 4 ranks. The more TOURBILLON GOLFER runs well, the higher his local rating becomes, and the more weight he has to carry in these sprints. While I think he’s the best in the field, I do believe there’s more than a fair chance he still doesn’t find the finish line first in his fifth try. For that reason, I’m going to make him the cornerstone of my Quinella and include two others I believe have shown more than enough lately to say they have a good chance here. #9 ROMAN CROWN will be ridden by Hollie Doyle in her season debut in Hong Kong and will give her a great opportunity for a good first impression. This four-year-old is cutting back in distance from seven furlongs, but the notes on TOURBILLON GOLFER consistently say something along the lines of “caught at the wire” and ROMAN CROWN will likely be the best closer in the field. #11 VON BAER has been improving drastically since shortening up to these six-furlong sprints and, with a good trip, also presents a serious threat to our Morning Line favorite.


Race 4 | 1650M | Class 4
Win - #3 ABSOLUTE HONOR
Quinella Box – 3,5,9
Grade: A

Notes: I’m giving this race an “A” while boxing three horses in a Quinella because I think the value in the three selections against a vulnerable favorite make this a race well worth playing. #3 ABSOLUTE HONOR has two strong runs in his last five races that rate as highly as anyone in this field. They both came at Happy Valley going 1650m on a firm course, hypothetically the conditions we’ll see tomorrow morning. The three races in between were all six-furlong sprints, one on a wet All-Weather course and two on a “Good” Sha Tin turf course. I’m more than happy to play into that pattern in this race. #5 SMART CITY is less consistent than I like, but at his best he’s as capable as anyone in this race. That upside, and a Morning Line of 21/1 with Zac Purton aboard, are attractive enough for me to get involved. #9 CONSPIRACY WITNESS seems to only improve with added distance as of late, and while he is coming off of a short rest, his last race was very impressive in my ratings. Morning Line favorite, #4 CORLEONE, has been running some decent figures but never really approaching impressive. I think there are big expectations, but until I see them for myself I’ll be leaning heavily against.


Race 9 | 1650M | Class 3
Win - #2 EMBRACES
Quinella Box – 2,4,8
Grade: A

Notes: My numbers love #2 EMBRACES in his last two tries, and with a slightly better trip I think he has a big opportunity ahead of him tomorrow. I’m projecting a fair amount of pressure towards the front of this field, and I think some of the more shortly priced runners are going to have to fight tooth and nail to make it out of the scrum. The pace looks like it will set up some closers to have a window to get home late. Coming from the rail, Jerry Chau will have to navigate this gelding well, but for a jockey finishing in the money in 24 of his last 87 starts I’m hoping it’ll be no problem. #4 A AMERIC TE SPECSO is both a name I hate typing repeatedly and one I’ve had to write many times as I’ve chased this horse’s speed ratings more than I care to admit. However, I’m back again as he continues to look good in his seven-year-old campaign. I don’t think he’s a standout by any stretch, but he could be a nice addition to the Quinella at double-digit odds. On a good-to-firm course, #8 IVY LEAGUE continues to threaten. Unfortunately, he’s picking up an 0-for-81 mount in this one. I like the horse’s form, and am happy to tack him onto the ticket, but will not be playing him outright.

Good luck!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #1

#1 Gonzalo	He didn't play much at all going long last out, but the debut sprint try was decent enough to think that he can land this one if he gets back to it.
#3 Shukran	Chasing type tends to flatten out late, but he might be in a decent enough spot turning for him to plug along and stay for a piece.
#2 Mombo Jumbo	Take a look at him on the tote and track ahead of this, but they obviously have reasonable expectations for him in this spot, and he's not meeting a whole lot on paper.
Race Summary	Gonzalo fits the bill today if he's able to run back to the debut try, as he's meeting a soft group even for this level.

Mahoning Valley - Race #5

#10 My Paisan	He didn't give way quite as badly last time out, and another small step in the right direction off that try might keep him in the frame. Draws well to force the issue.
#12 Ringthatbell	He has been in the picture in those last couple starts, and a bit cleaner trip today might make enough difference to get him over the top. Playable.
#5 Sammy's Halo	Tactical pace can grind late to stay, and it wouldn't be a total shock to see him land this, having just finished in front of Ringthatbell in their last meeting.
Race Summary	My Paisan has some attacking pace from an outside draw, and I'm hoping that gives him just enough cushion to hold off the pressing and spying players.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#3 Pride and Attitude	Wonder if he has a claim on this one at a midrange price, as the two- and three-back route races on her page stack up nicely enough here. One of the ones.
#2 Illuminate	She's another honest type who should be in the mix throughout, I just think you're going to have to take a significantly shorter price here than up top.
#6 Lesotho	Not at all sold on her, but could see her using some stretchout speed to get in the frame early, and maybe a more leisurely route tempo will suit her better.
Race Summary	Pride and Attitude and Illuminate look similar enough here, but the former should be a better number and seems like the right call in a competitive race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #4

#3 LADY UPSTART (9-2)	Couldn’t fend off next-out repeater in slow-paced route at this distance.
#4 BEAUTIFUL McKINZIE (6-1)	‘Improved position’ while 6-wide in her 6-1/2F debut.
#1 RIVER RISE (5-2)	Earned top speed figure in field in first start for 26-percent second-out barn.
Race Summary	LADY UPSTART ‘inched clear’ in upper stretch but settled for second behind Hit Parade, who came back to win a $50,000 starter allowance. The pace was slow, but she looms a forward factor throughout in this field for her new connections. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3-4 exacta box.

Churchill Downs - Race #5

#1 VINO SUBITO (3-1)	Sharp early, wilted in stretch, remains dangerous with speed and the rail.
#2 TWO SEVEN O (9-2)	Dueled for a half-mile in debut, returns as gelding off Asmussen claim.
#6 FREE CHOICE (7-2)	Been facing better at huge odds, can rally for share with top sprint speed fig
Race Summary	VINO SUBITO appeared to be going well on the lead into the turn in his 6-1/2F debut but he tired badly in the Keeneland stretch. He gets class relief and cuts back to a shorter sprint for a good barn with 2-year-olds and second-time starters. Bet to win and place and play a 1,2/1,2,6/ALL trifecta.

Churchill Downs - Race #6

#1 MISS ARLINGTON (3-1)	Back class showed at proven distance, can return quick claim dividend.
#3 ALWAYS ANGELS (6-1)	Landed minor awards in last four starts at various venues.
#4 CURRENT CLIMATE (7-2)	Press solid fractions, led briefly in mid-stretch, no match for late-running winner.
Race Summary	MISS ARLINGTON re-awakened on the class drop with an easy win at 6F off a two-month freshening. She has plenty of back-class to summon and takes aim at $300,000 in earnings at the distance in her repeat bid off the claim. Bet to win and place and play 1-3 and 1-4 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National
PURCHASE

Penn National - Race 7	W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)
Claiming $5,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 8:39P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 5 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. LUCKY LUCKY LUKE is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CHILL BOSS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. LUCKY LUCKY LUKE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WILD JAIME: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rat ing.
2	CHILL BOSS	5/2	7/2
3	LUCKY LUCKY LUKE	9/2	5/1
7	WILD JAIME	2/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	RAY'S BLUE WAGON	4	7/2	Front-runner	73	66	77.0	64.2	55.2
2	CHILL BOSS	2	5/2	Front-runner	79	76	73.6	77.6	72.6
7	WILD JAIME	7	2/1	Alternator/Front-runner	88	88	67.8	26.4	23.9
3	LUCKY LUCKY LUKE	3	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	78	76	45.2	72.4	64.4
1	TOWN KISSER	1	5/1	Trailer	76	70	53.0	59.4	49.9
6	GRUMPY BROOKSIE	6	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	69	51.9	37.0	25.5
5	RIVERBOAT BANDIT	5	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	60	44.6	54.8	45.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Special Wager
PURCHASE

Special Wager - Race 3	Leg 3 of the Horseshoe Turf Pick 3
SO $8,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $23,120 • Post: 4:45P
IND - R6 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2024 - 2025 OR CLAIMING PRICE $8,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 5 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES). IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. DEL MO is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DEL MO: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. DRIFTWOOD: Horse has run a G ood Race within the last 30 days. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. COUNT OF AMAZONIA (IRE): Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	DEL MO	5/1	7/2
7	DRIFTWOOD	4/1	5/1
9	COUNT OF AMAZONIA (IRE)	7/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	DEL MO	6	5/1	Front-runner	93	96	95.6	88.4	80.4
7	DRIFTWOOD	7	4/1	Front-runner	94	79	94.0	82.2	73.2
9	COUNT OF AMAZONIA (IRE)	9	7/2	Trailer	91	86	84.6	84.6	82.6
10	KYGO (GER)	10	8/1	Trailer	90	80	75.3	82.4	66.9
5	FACE VALUE	5	10/1	Trailer	93	78	70.4	84.0	65.5
4	MAJOR SPARKS	4	8/1	Trailer	96	86	69.8	83.8	66.3
15	NACHO CHROME	15	20/1	Trailer	91	80	64.0	81.6	58.6
3	SCENIC JUSTICE	3	15/1	Trailer	89	75	55.4	77.8	53.8
14	CAUSE A RUCKUS	14	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	87	81	77.0	78.2	63.2
8	LEAVE IT TO KITTEN	8	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	94	95	73.0	81.4	70.9
13	GO EMI	13	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	97	82	54.4	70.4	51.9
12	HYDRO FROST	12	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	94	82	81.2	80.6	64.6
2	EPIMYTHIUM	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	93	91	76.2	73.0	50.5
1	HOLD YOUR APPLAUSE	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	95	86	71.4	81.0	68.5
16	SUCCESSION GOLD	16	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	84	69.8	71.4	44.9
11	KING OF KENTUCKY	11	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	69	51.2	51.2	28.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - SO - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $23120 Class Rating: 90

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2024 - 2025 OR CLAIMING PRICE $8,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 5 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000 IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 DEL MO 5/1
# 9 COUNT OF AMAZONIA (IRE) 7/2
# 4 MAJOR SPARKS 8/1

DEL MO is my choice. Could beat this group given the 93 speed figure recorded in his last outing. Is hard not to look at based on speed figs which have been very strong - 81 avg - of late. Going in a turf route race gives this gelding a very good shot. COUNT OF AMAZONIA (IRE) - Has recorded strong Speed Figures in turf route races in the past. Could beat this field given the 85 speed figure recorded in his last outing. MAJOR SPARKS - Has been consistently running well recently. Could beat this group of horses in this race given the 88 speed figure posted in his last outing.

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Parx Racing - Race #1 - Post: 12:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 53

Rating:

#6 CRAIGH NA DUN (ML=6/1)
#1 WEEK'S STRONG (ML=7/2)


CRAIGH NA DUN - Was in a $10,000 Maiden Claiming race at Parx Racing last time out. That affair had a class rating of 58 and he is moving down in this race. A certain serious competitor. WEEK'S STRONG - Good trainers run fit horses. The fact that Servis worked this gelding at a long distance tells me this one should be ready today. Taking a trip down in class; has the ability to make his presence felt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 COMPA (ML=2/1), #9 PEACE CRUSADER (ML=5/1),

COMPA - 2/1 is not offering enough value for any animal in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint event recently. This favorite ran on January 8th and hasn't had a drill since. PEACE CRUSADER - This horse didn't do too much last time out.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #6 CRAIGH NA DUN on top if we're getting at least 9/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Charles Town - Race #8 - Post: 10:17pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,600 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#1 O K SMARTY PANTS (ML=6/1)
#3 VISCIOUS GOSSIP (ML=8/1)
#4 CAIRNHILL (ML=8/1)
#8 TRUE INDY (ML=5/1)
#6 GHOSTLY SQUALL (ML=6/1)


O K SMARTY PANTS - The jockey and conditioner combination have a lucrative return on investment when they team up. VISCIOUS GOSSIP - This filly's last speed rating recorded on October 18th is at the top in last race speed figs. CAIRNHILL - Have to like the way Brown has raced this filly back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think she'll run well today. This thoroughbred coming off a nice performance in the last 30 days is a win candidate in my humble opinion. This racer is at the top of my list of contenders in this race. Her pace, along with a favorable post on this tight track, should take her far in this one. When a horse drops at least 5 lbs (like this one is), you must take notice. It may not seem like much, but could be helpful. TRUE INDY - You always have to be on the prowl for money making rider/handler combos; we have one right here. GHOSTLY SQUALL - Mare won on August 15th at this class and distance. This thoroughbred coming off a solid effort in the last month is a serious competitor in my book.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 CAMEO (ML=3/1), #10 LOVELY LUCY (ML=9/2), #9 FONTABELLE (ML=8/1),

CAMEO - In any race of 4 1/2 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been on the board in short distance races of late. LOVELY LUCY - You think this equine is going to win just because she's always close. Just doesn't finish first often. Don't feel this steed will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed rating was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's class figure. FONTABELLE - Looked like she was in good form on Sep 14th. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign. The speed rating last out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this thoroughbred as a vulnerable competitor.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - VISCIOUS GOSSIP - This filly is in the top spot in the group in earnings per start. I'm making a wager on this one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 O K SMARTY PANTS to win at post-time odds of 5/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,3] with [1,3,4] with [1,3,4,6,8] with [1,3,4,6,8] Total Cost: $24

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 74

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 SHEZA MONEE TRAIN 20/1
# 9 HOT N SPICY BABY 9/2
# 5 DASHA CARTEL 20/1

I've got to go with SHEZA MONEE TRAIN and is a very good value wager given the line. This filly gets a boost with Garcia in the irons. Will most likely compete soundly in the pace battle which bodes well with this group of horses. HOT N SPICY BABY - With a respectable 68 speed figure last time out, will surely be a factor in this race. Looks decent for the conditions of this affair today, showing solid numbers in short races lately. DASHA CARTEL - Should best this group here, showing very good figures of late. Could beat this group given the 68 Equibase Speed Fig put up in her last outing.