Saturday 11/8/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-06-2025, 06:27 AM

Race of the Week: Saturday's Long Island at Aqueduct

November 5, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Five of 10 races on Saturday's Aqueduct card are of the stakes variety, including a capacity field in the Long Island Stakes. The $250,000 turf marathon for the fillies and mares will be contested at 1-3/8 miles as the final race on the program. The card also boasts the Grade 2 Mother Goose in the race prior, providing an interesting late daily double.

Horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can take advantage of up to a $10 money-back special on win bets in the Long Island if your play finishes second or third. The same offer is available for Aqueduct's Hill Prince and Mother Goose Stakes on Saturday.

Field Depth:
Grade 2 winner GRAYOSH has the field's top-level score, while BEACH BOMB is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed. Others Grade 2 or Grade 3-placed here include NO SHOW SAMMY JO, IMMENESITUDE, ALLURING ANGEL, AMBER CASCADE, WAY TO BE MARIE and FUN WITH FLAGS. In terms of strength of schedule, BEACH BOMB and NO SHOW SAMMY JO have kept the toughest company lines consistently.

Pace:
IMMENSITUDE has gone straight to the front in her last 2 starts and does not appear to have any serious threat to that position on Saturday. She could be lone speed, while BEACH BOMB and FUN WITH FLAGS may lead a cloudy picture of closest pursuers. A deep closer would appear compromised by a projected slow pace.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-NO SHOW SAMMY JO: Nose runner-up as the favorite in this race a year ago, he's the first of 2 Graham Motion trainees that could land the barn a fourth Long Island victory. Got some class relief last time at Laurel and delivered narrowly at short odds, but it's his June effort at the Big A vs. star La Mehana that was her season's best effort. She fits well with this group as a win contender.

#2-GRAYOSH: White-hot jockey Flavien Prat won an Aqueduct record 7 races on Sunday, a day after taking 3 at Del Mar (including a pair of Breeders' Cup heats). Six straight top-5 finishes for consistent filly, but without a win during that span - chasing 2 of these rivals as the favorite in allowance company last out. Prat is 26-for-55 in the exacta (25% wins) in Aqueduct turf stakes over the past 2 years. Must consider this first of potentially 3 Chad Brown starters.

#3-BEACH BOMB: Trainer Graham Motion's second shot here at a fourth Long Island win, this mare was farther off the pace than typical last time out when rallying for second in the Grade 3 Waya. She projects to be much closer to the pace Saturday and should get a beneficial trip saving ground under 3-time Long Island winner Javier Castellano. Player.

#4-BROCKNARDINI: Outstanding 2-year-old of 2023 just hasn't developed into the stakes threat that she hinted. Trainer George Weaver tries blinkers on for the first time in start 13 after a series of flat performances. Can't recommend.

#5-LADY FIREFOOT: 50-1 and 89-1 in similar stakes appearances at Aqueduct in recent starts without making any impact. Last year's Long Island was an eighth-place finish at 59-1 odds. Similar fate.

#6-IMMENSITUDE: First of 2 Bill Mott trainees as he looks to add to his 1998 and 2012 Long Island victories. Likely controlling speed steps up in class off an allowance wire job over the course. She's been competitive in prior matchups when finishing behind No Show Sammy Jo and Beach Bomb, so the pace edge may be enough to turn that narrow tide. Junior Alvarado, who won the 2013 Long Island, rides. Consider.

#7-ALLURING ANGEL: Bill Mott barnmate of Immensitude next door, she's finished behind that friendly foe twice this year at Saratoga. Rallying third in the Grade 3 Waya over this Aqueduct course, three-quarters of a length behind Beach Bomb, puts her in the mix. Kendrick Carmouche won this race in 2015.

#8-AMBER CASCADE: $80,000 claim in May by Mike Maker, we've seen him have much success with turf routers like this in the past. Second-place efforts at Kentucky Downs and Saratoga in stakes company since the claim underscore that history, but this mare disappointed last out in the Grade 2 Rodeo Drive at Santa Anita as the favorite. She was too close to the slow pace that day and didn't have the same fire. Nik Juarez, 2017 Long Island winner, will benefit from returning to her previous patient style.

#9-WAY TO BE MARIE: Well-traveled Rob Atras charge returns to the Big A for the first time since a third in last November's Grade 3 Pebbles. Second-best last out in the Grade 2 Ladies Marathon at Kentucky Downs to loose-leading Stellify. The 11-furlong distance is a question mark, but she handled her first extension at KD with some promise. Jockey Manny Franco has 15 turf stakes wins at Aqueduct the last 2 years (24% win rate). Must consider.

#10-FUN WITH FLAGS: Two-time Long Island winner Chad Brown (2015, 2018) has the final 2 entries in this lineup. This one has lost 7 straight dating back to her French career, which includes 6 losses in as many tries since coming to the US. Stylistically may be able to sit second behind the loose leader if chirped on early by Dylan Davis, who won this race in 2020 and 2021. Distance may suit with a one-paced gallop.

also-eligible #11-ALIMARA: Second Chad Brown trainee was ninth in the Grade 3 Waya and is 2-for-7 since coming to the US from France. No early speed, so if she makes the lineup, she'll need pace help. Prefer others.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
BEACH BOMB gets a favorable pace set-up, post position and has run 2 strong races over this course in the past.

Best Longshot Contender:
FUN WITH FLAGS could get a very good trip and employ a one-paced style that her pedigree really hints to appreciating this longer trip.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$10 exacta key-box BEACH BOMB with IMMENSITUDE, FUN WITH FLAGS, GRAYOSH ($60). $2 trifecta key BEACH BOMB over IMMENSITUDE, FUN WITH FLAGS, GRAYOSH, NO SHOW SAMMY JO, AMBER CASCADE ($40).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-07-2025, 06:35 AM

Scott Shapiro: Saturday Aqueduct Money-Back Promo Stakes Picks

November 6, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

The Breeders’ Cup is in the rearview mirror, but there is still plenty of great action to be had this weekend at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. The week’s festivities not only include a Woodbine promotion and our month-long “Cornucopia of Cash,” but also a trio of Money Back opportunities on the graded stakes races at Aqueduct on Saturday. As always, remember to opt in to the promotion to ensure you get up to $10 back on your first Win bet if your horse finishes second or third. With a trend of races lacking early speed, here are the horses I like in each of the three Money Back opportunities at the Big A.

Race 7: Hill Prince (G3)

This $200k 1 1/8-mile event for 3YOs over the grass drew a field of 9 without a defined front runner. #1 Noble Confessor adds blinkers and drew inside, but is more of a plodder, so perhaps it is #7 Griffin’s Wharf that makes the top under Ricardo Santana Jr. The Constitution colt has moved forward in both starts since moving to the lawn for Tom Morley, but has been out finished both times. I expect him to run well, but I prefer #2 Thundering on the Win end. The Maryland-bred has hit the board in three consecutive starts routing on the lawn at double-digit odds, including last out in the Kent at Delaware Park when he was beaten a nose by #5 Soleil Volant. Trainer Patrick Dixon takes the blinkers off for the first time and legs up Hall of Famer John Velazquez. He should be prominent early despite the equipment change and able to save ground throughout. Hopefully, it leads him to his first graded stakes score.

Play: #2 Thundering

Race 9: Mother Goose (G2)

The second Money Back opportunity comes in this 9-furlong affair for 3YO fillies over the main track where #9 Drexel Hill is the filly with the most talent. The problem, other than it being her first start since a runner-up effort in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), is her lack of early speed. She very well could be more into the race than normal off the long break, but has been at her best with a fast pace to run at. On the other hand, #8 So There She Was should benefit from the likely race shape. The Munnings filly nearly sprung a huge upset in the Torrey Pines (G3) two-back before besting #3 Lemon Zest in the Remington Park Oaks in late September. The Doug O’Neill trainee should get a perfect stalking trip just off the moderate early pace of Lemon Zest once again and have enough left late to seal the deal in her first start in the “Big Apple.”

Play: #8 So There She Was

Race 10: Long Island (G3)
The promotion and the card conclude with this 1 3/8-mile test for fillies and mares over the Aqueduct lawn in another race where there is very little early zip signed on. #6 Immensitude took advantage of a moderate pace in her allowance win going 8.5-furlongs on October 2 and should once again have things her way on the front end under jockey Junior Alvarado. She has proven she belongs at this level in the past from a class perspective and is capable of making it two in a row in gate-to-wire fashion for Wathnan Racing and Bill Mott. Let’s hope she has things her way once again early. If so, she should be tough to catch late.

Play: #6 Immensitude

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-08-2025, 12:16 PM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Late Pick 4 Analysis

November 8, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

The Meadowlands has a 12-race card with the 0.50 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 9. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EDT)

2-Wave Dancer (2-1)-Cashed a small check in the Kindergarten Final and after being 13 lengths back at the 1st call, so it was a moral victory. Does not fly off the car but should come away with a decent early seat and be in play at the top of the lane.
3-Whoa Black Betty (4-1)-Mohawk shipper likes to rally down the lane, has never missed the board in 4 starts and has 2 pictures. Her drawback is similar to the one above, being sluggish off the gate. Not sure if Yannick Gingras will be very aggressive at the start and try to wire the field. Will use and count on this top pilot to know when to push the button.

Race 10 (10:05 PM EDT)

1-JK Black Gold (5/2)-Jason Bartlett steers for the Cullipher barn and that combo wins at a 44% clip. Comes off a win from the 8-hole and now takes a good step up in class. The 5-year-old does well at M1 (13-4-1-4) so will look for a big try and hopefully won't be over bet.
7-Hiranya N (3-1)-Has come close at this level and leaving from the outside shouldn't crush its chances of taking a picture. There could be a quick pace, and if Jonathan Ahle provides a smooth trip good things could happen at a fair price.

Race 11 (10:30 PM EDT)

1-Jack's Legend N (4-1)-Shipped in from YR and did post a 55.1 back half but the fractions were slow and was pace compromised. Doesn't like to win but the same can be said for many in this field. Does do best when racing with the leaders and can get that trip here.
5-Marcus Seelster (7/2)-The 9-year-old seems to pick its spots. Was too far behind leaving from the 7-hole in the 1st race back at M1. Has the gate speed to get a decent early seat and should use it on the drop in class with this post draw.
10-National Sport (9/2)-Came with a big effort to finish 2nd last time and left from post 10. This would probably be the program chalk with a good post draw. Could get the job done this time with another sharp drive and will include at this price.

Race 12 (10:55 PM EDT)

4-Our Corelli N (7/2)-Was used early and worked to get on the point but the trip took its toll. The veteran should be primed for a big try, and the driver change to Jason Bartlett is ++ improvement.
5-Sono Confuso (3-1)-Got on the engine after leaving from the 8-hole and finished a beaten 3rd. Raced better than the line looked, comes back in sequence, and this is the 3rd race off the bench. The post relief could be a winning difference.

$1 Late Pick 4

2,3/1,7/1,5,10/4,5
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-08-2025, 12:19 PM

Scott Shapiro: Woodbine Saturday Spot Plays | 11/8

November 7, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

There is little more than a month left of action in 2025 at Woodbine Racetrack, including a good card this Saturday that not only contains a trio of graded stakes races, but also a no brainer promotion at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Just cruise over to our promotions page, register, and receive 10X rewards points for all wagers. Here a few horses I plan to build my day around in Toronto on Saturday afternoon.

Race 6:

My first play comes in this MSW event for 2YO fillies traveling 1 1/16 miles over the Inner Turf where I am willing to take a swing against 8-5-ML favorite #4 La Culasse, as well as 5-2-second choice #3 Lapin de Plage. La Culasse has burnt a lot of money already, while Lapin de Plage has had her chances. #7 Scotch Mist is lighter raced coming into this spot with just two starts under her belt. She did not show much speed from the gate in either of her first two tries, but did show the ability to finish in both efforts under jockey Jose Campos. The Volatile filly is clearly still learning like many of her rivals, but should get an honest pace to run at for a barn that has won with 24% of their starters in 2025. The Keeneland September 2024 purchase should be finishing with energy at a solid price.

Play: #7 Scotch Mist (6-1 ML)

Race 7: Maple Leaf (G3)

The first of the stakes races is for fillies and mares at 1 1/4-miles over the synthetic where there should be an honest pace given the presence of #1 Hurricane Clair, #2 For Flying, and #5 Blitz. This bodes well for #4
Long Ago. The 5YO mare gets back to the all-weather and being able to use the anti-bleeding medication Lasix after four starts without it in the States. The daughter of Roaring Lion ran two big races earlier this year with Lasix, including a 6.5-length romp over the synthetic surface at Turfway Park in March, but has failed to hit the board in her last two over the grass against graded stakes foes. Veteran jockey Emma-Jayne Wilson
should be able to draft in off the early speeds and take control before they turn for home. Trainer Billy Morey appears to have found a great spot for a mare he claimed for $80k back in June. She should be set for her best on Saturday afternoon.

Play: #4 Long Ago (3-1 ML)

Race 9: Bessarabian (G3)

My final spot play of the afternoon comes in this competitive 7-furlong dash for the ladies over the all-weather where #12 Caitlinhergrtness is no doubt the class of the field. The $925k earner has won 2 of 6 this year and earned well over $200k, but has done so in races at two-turns. The cutback by trainer Kevin Attard is an interesting decision, but perhaps she is ready to roll and this is simply the best option. That said, I cannot swallow the chalk given her lack of experience in sprints, so I will lean on #2 Les Reys. The Penny’s Picnic filly cut back to one-turn last time out and got a dream run under jockey Rafael Hernandez in her victory in the Ontario Fashion (G3). Normally, I would fade a runner coming off a dream run, but Les Reys figures to get a very similar voyage once again given her inside draw and the overall likely race shape. Hopefully, she is able to save ground in the pocket under Hernandez and use her strong late kick to out finish this solid bunch of female sprinters and make it two in a row since arriving in Canada for the Miguel Clement trainee.

Play: #2 Les Reys (4-1 ML)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-08-2025, 12:20 PM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #1

#1 My Perfect Wave	She finished up well enough in both of her sprint tries so far, and she has some upside today while going second off the long layoff and getting two turns for the first time.
#2 Pura Vida Princesa	She has been in the frame a couple of times recently, and there are a couple of OK names on her page already, but I just don't trust her a whole lot to punch home in the final yards.
#3 Bint Al Dandy	Speed meets a little bit of other potential pace in here, but she has pretty reliable form and stayed on well while landing shares in some good races.
Race Summary	My Perfect Wave has some appeal today while hopefully taking a step forward, and I'm curious to see how Bint Al Dandy stacks up here. The company lines are pretty solid so far.

Del Mar - Race #8

#1 Shea Brennan	Love how honest he is, and I think his better stuff on the main might be enough to turn the tables on the guy who beat him last time out. Dangerous.
#5 Man O Rose	Tons of respect for his recent form, and you wouldn't get much of an argument from me other than the likely price.
#6 Stamp My Passport	His form is pretty unreliable, but he might find himself in an OK spying spot while turning back a bit and could hang around for a piece.
Race Summary	Shea Brennan and Man O Rose look like a tough pair to get past in here, but the former might offer a touch better price here and should get a good trip from the fence.

Del Mar - Race #9

#1 Mav Man	He has started to put together some honest form, and he might work out a good run while tucked in on the inside without winding up with too much to do.
#7 Sir Percival	There is some other pace in here that might make his day tough, but there might still be some more here after that big upset score last time out.
#4 Winning Patriot	He's coming off an effort that might be a touch better than it looks at first glance, and I think he's one of the main players today if he brings anything like that run.
Race Summary	Mav Man has some decent finishing ability and has been putting a couple nice races together, and I think the race might set up nicely for him with a little bit of stretchout pace lined up.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-08-2025, 12:20 PM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #1

#2 WISE AND ELEGANT (6-1)	Six-figure grass earner sheds 9 pounds, takes some catching.
#13 FROM HELLO (7-2)	Can handle class rise with duplicate of easy win at the Meadowlands.
#9 DIVINING SMILE (9-2)	Rallied, just missed as odds-on favorite on short rest, moves inside out.
Race Summary	WISE AND ELEGANT tries a new game for new barn, stretching out in distance off a long series of 5F turf sprints. But she can make maximum use of her speed in a field that is void of it, and she gets in light for a 15-percent sprint-to-route barn. Bet to win and place and play a 2-9-13 exacta box.

Laurel Park - Race #2

#2 TUG (7-2)	Rallied widest in sprint, can stalk and pounce in first long-distance test.
#4 STICKTOTHESYSTEM (9-5)	Goes from one good barn to another, adds blinks, will be underlay.
#1 DONUT DUST (8-1)	Fanned 8-wide, raced evenly in the stretch, added ground a plus.
Race Summary	TUG goes long for a low-percentage barn with these types, but he could capitalize on a favorable, up-close trip. He tracked a soft pace while raced widest on the backstretch at 6F, but rallied for third behind the winning favorite. His dam was an allowance winner going a route of ground. Bet to win and place and play a 2/1,4/ALL trifecta.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#3 SWEEK SHENANIGANS (20-1)	Speed, equipment change, bullet works make her viable longshot.
#1 JUST PHILTORED (2-1)	Won pair of restricted stakes before perfect mark ended in G-3 turf sprint.
#4 PROSECCO RITA (7-2)	Romped in 12-horse field for Team Russell, cuts back to short sprint.
Race Summary	The scratch of speedball BEACH HEIST – who ran in a turf stakes at Aqueduct yesterday -- changes the complexion of the $100,000 Smart Halo. SWEET SHENANIGANS, fresh off a pair of sizzling workouts over the track, benefits the most. She wears blinkers for the first time and can carry her speed farther in her second stakes go-round. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3-4 exacta box.