Sunday 11/9/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-09-2025, 08:08 AM

NFL Trends Sunday

Sunday

Falcons at Colts (-6?, 48?) (At Berlin): The Falcons are on a 6-2 under run this season. The Colts covered seven of their first eight games before last week’s upset loss to the Steelers. Edge: Colts and slight to under.

Giants at Bears (-4?, 46?): The Giants are on a 4-0 over run. The Bears have won and covered five of their past six and are on a 6-2-1 over run. Edge: Bears and over.

Bills (-9?, 50) at Dolphins: The Dolphins covered the first meeting this season, 31-21, as 11?-point underdogs. The road team has covered the past four in the series, and the Bills are on a 4-1-1 against the spread run at Miami. Edge: Bills and slight to over.

Ravens (-4, 49) at Vikings: The Ravens are 6-2 to the over this season. The Vikings have gone over the total in six straight games and seven of eight. Edge: Over and slight to Ravens.

Browns (-2, 38) at Jets: The Browns have lost and failed to cover four of their past five and five of seven, and are 0-5 ATS away from home this season. The Jets have failed to cover their past three home games. Edge: Slight to Jets.

Patriots (-2?, 48) at Buccaneers: The Patriots have won six straight and gone 5-1 ATS, and have gone over the total in three straight. The Buccaneers have gone over the total in five straight regular-season home games. Edge: Over and slight to Patriots.

Saints at Panthers (-5?, 39): The home team is 6-1-1 ATS in the past four years in the series. The Saints have lost four straight with no covers and are on a 5-0 under run. The Panthers have won and covered four of their past five. Edge: Panthers and under.

Jaguars (-1, 37?) at Texans: The Jaguars won and covered the first meeting this season. The teams have gone under the total in their past four meetings. Edge: Under and Jaguars.

Cardinals at Seahawks (-7, 45?): The Seahawks have won and covered the past three meetings, including on the final play in a 23-20 win Sept. 25. They have won and covered six of their past seven games this season and are on a 5-2 over run. The Cardinals are 4-1 as underdogs this season. Edge: Over and slight to Seahawks.

Rams (-5, 49?) at 49ers: The 49ers upset the Rams 26-23 on Oct. 2 as 8-point underdogs. The Rams have covered four of their past five games and gone under in four of five. The

Lions (-8?, 49?) at Commanders: The Lions have lost and failed to cover two of their past three after winning and covering the previous four. The Commanders have lost four straight and gone 0-4 ATS. Edge: Lions.

Steelers at Chargers (-3, 45): The Steelers have won and covered the past three meetings between the teams, dating to 2019. The Chargers are on a 1-5 ATS slide and have gone over the total in four straight. Edge: Steelers and slight to over.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-09-2025, 08:41 AM

Scott Shapiro: Sunday Churchill Downs Spot Plays 11/9

November 9, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

The racing week at Churchill Downs concludes this afternoon with a 10-race card that gets rolling at 1PM eastern. There are no stakes races on the agenda with the Dream Supreme and River City (G3) running yesterday, but there are plenty of solid wagering opportunities nonetheless, especially over the back half of the slate. Here are a few horses I like most.

Race 7:
My first play comes in this third-level allowance event at one-mile over the grass where there is not very much early speed signed on. This should bode well for #1 Noises Off. The Candy Ride gelding clearly pointed to Kentucky Downs big purses this summer, but was unable to hit the board in two tries against a bit stronger competition than he encounters this afternoon. Trainer Paulo Lobo has given the 5YO gelding two months rest since the pair of starts in Franklin and he draws favorably along the inside. Look for jockey Jose Ortiz, who takes over riding duties for the first time, to use the rail draw and his tactical speed to his advantage by securing a prominent early position. His 8 seconds in 19 starts make him tough to fully trust on the win end, but he should be well spotted for his return to the races. I will need at least 4-1 though to dive in on the Bonne Chance Farm homebred.

Play: #1 Noises Off (4-1 ML)

Race 8:
The pace should be contentious in this $50k starter for 2YO fillies traveling 6-furlongs over the main track. #2 Donna Romano is one that could take advantage, but is far too short of a price given the fact she has struggled to get out of the gate in good order in both races to kick off her career for trainer Brad Cox. I prefer California import #8 Camila Catalina. The daughter of Rock Your World shipped into Keeneland last out after two starts at Del Mar this summer for veteran conditioner Bob Hess, Jr. She ran well in both underneath finishes out west and ran terrific last out winning by more than four lengths in the end despite a pretty uncomfortable voyage between rivals on the backstretch before finding clear sailing under Julien Leparoux. If the $40k EAS May 2025 purchase can avoid significant regression off of the career best run last month, she has a big shot to make it two victories in a row in the Blue Grass State.

Play: #8 Camila Catalina (7-2 ML)

Race 10:
The week of racing in Louisville concludes with this MSW for 2YOs traveling two-turns over the grass where I like #8 Drop Shot. The son of Essential Quality is bred to enjoy routing and doing so on the grass being out of a Smart Strike mare that won 7 of 18 on the lawn earning close to $1M. The Bbn Racing colt ran a solid fourth on debut sprinting at Kentucky Downs before a bit of a disappointing effort in his first try around two-turns last month at Keeneland. Despite failing to finish in the trifecta, it was a good learning experience for Drop Shot. A move forward should be expected from the Rusty Arnold trainee with hot riding Luis Saez staying in the saddle.

Play: #8 Drop Shot (5-1 ML)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-09-2025, 08:41 AM

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

November 9, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

Woodbine Mohawk Park begins the week with a 10-race card. The 0.20 Pick 5 rolls in Race 1 and it has a $75,000 guaranteed pool. The 0.20 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 7, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7 (9:03 PM EDT)

2-Abovemypaygrade (6-1)-Finished a game 2nd after landing on the engine leaving from post 6. Steps-up in the 2nd race for the Mark Goddard barn and that seems a bit aggressive, but this is an ugly race. Using at this price and could get a top of the stack trip here.
4-Crunch Hanover (7/2)-Fits with this kind and shouldn't be too far back when the wings fold. If Trevor Henry can get away in a close-up seat the veteran should be in striking range and be there at the wire.
10-Shanes Dream (9/2)-The pedal should be down off the car and Billy Davis Jr needs to land in a decent early seat. It wouldn't be a shock if a pocket ride happened. Could carry its speed to the wire with a cozy trip.

Race 8 (9:26 PM EDT)

5-Wilcat Rocky (4-1)-Raced evenly leaving from post 7 against a well-meant winner. Fits better here and has enough gate speed to get a good early seat. This will be the 2nd race since shipping in from FlmD and will look for a big try against a beatable field.
6-Mr Ibiza N (6-1)-Returns to Mohawk after a stint at RidC where the results were not so good. Lands back at Mohawk to face a suspect group. Draws the choice post, goes back on Lasix, Jody Jamieson gets the nod and makes its debut for the Justin Turcotte barn. Will look for a good price and will expect the changes to help the cause.
7-Well Said Celeb (7/2)-Last time, Doug McNair blasted out from post 9 and faded to come 4th. Tonight, another aggressive driver, Billy Davis Jr takes the lines and that change could mean a better price than the morning line. My guess is a gate to wire try is coming and that could happen even with this post draw.

Race 9 (9:49 PM EDT)

2-Aquinas Hanover (7/2)-Usually when a horse who could not win over a long period of time races out of its skin and finally does win my play is to look to fade it in the next start. But will make an exception here, as Louis Roy replaces JMac and this is a soft bunch. Should be on top or in the pocket early on, and if races back to the last start it will be the 2nd win in 20 races this year.
3-Bruno No No No (4-1)-Comes off an impressive effort from the same race as the one above. Made its move but the 1st over journey wasn't easy and came away with only a small check. Did win 2 back and set a new mark of 149.1 on the engine. Will respect chances of a smoother trip and would be tough to beat if races back to the 10-16 mile.
7-Magical Bet (3-1)-Raced evenly in last but was off 3 weeks between starts. Gets a positive driver change in Jody Jamieson. He was between the pipes 2 back for a big effort from post 8 to come a good 2nd. Grinder needs to be on the lead or close to it to take a picture, and will look for that plan to be followed.

Race 10 (10:12 PM EDT)

8-Rbstenacious T (3-1)-Hoosier Park shipper made a good impression finishing 2nd in its Mohawk debut on 11-1. Was off 3 weeks before the start and raced wide leaving from post 10. Travis Cullen drives for the 2nd straight race and will look for a sharp steer once the wings fold. Best to respect, has the tactical speed to be racing near the top early in the mile.

$1 Late Pick 4

2,4,10/5,6,7/2,3,7/8
Total Bet=$27

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-09-2025, 08:42 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #1

#6 Hypergamy	Price might be just a touch better today after the flat try at 3/2 when dropping out of stakes company last time out, and while I still don't really trust the two-back race, I think she's better than she showed last out.
#1 Conquistadora	No real argument from me here after a useful debut run that might have her set up for something better at second asking. Wouldn't be a surprise.
#3 Victorious Dream	Euro invader meets a decent, but unspectacular, field for the American debut, so get a look at her on the tote and track ahead of this.
Race Summary	Hypergamy flattened out late in the last one, but she's likely to bring something a bit better today, and the price might be more appealing, too.

Del Mar - Race #7

#9 Jacklyn Lucas	She got past a couple horses late in the last one, and she'll try the turf today in a race where she might get a pretty decent spying run from this draw. Enough to like.
#5 Adia	She flashed a bit of pace and stayed on OK in the debut run, and she's a big threat here if she can build on that effort at all. Mild worry that the race flow projects with a bit of other speed.
#1 Tina's Princess	She's probably a little cheap for these while moving over from the dirt, but she might get just a bit outsprinted early, and that could potentially leave her in a decent kind of spot while chasing throughout. Not sold, but I wouldn't be totally shocked to see her chase and stay for a piece.
Race Summary	Jacklyn Lucas might get a good run while tracking a couple of quicker players in the early going, and I like that she moved forward last time out after exiting a pretty solid debut race.

Del Mar - Race #8

#5 Tina Turner	She's got a class test waiting for her here in a spot with multiple proven stakes types, but I liked the way she did it when landing her second in a row last out, and she's already proven on the main. Decent first-over trip waiting for her?
#4 Grand Slam Smile	She's the one to beat in here with some super-reliable form, and her baseline stuff is probably good enough to stay in the frame again. There are some pretty nice names in her company lines, too.
#6 Sneaker	Her ceiling is high enough to score here if it all goes her way, but she is a bit more of a question mark on the main than the top pair are.
Race Summary	Tina Turner hasn't done anything wrong yet, and I really liked her last. Wondering if she finds a really good spot to try to see if she can keep pace with Grand Slam Smile when the serious running starts.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-09-2025, 08:42 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park
PURCHASE

Laurel Park - Race 6	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 6-7) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (Races 6-7-8) / 50 cent PICK 5 (Races 6-7-8-9-10) $1.00 JACKPOT SUPER HIGH 5
SO $20,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 94 • Purse: $29,000 • Post: 2:22P
(RAIL AT 70 FEET). (PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $12,500 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST THREE STARTS OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000-$16,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 9 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $16,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONEMILE)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * TIDAL FORCES: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. BODECREAM: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GOLD FOOT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster P ower Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CLOUD MUSIC: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within th e last 30 days.
5	TIDAL FORCES	6/1	4/1
11	BODECREAM	4/1	6/1
4	GOLD FOOT	10/1	7/1
6	CLOUD MUSIC	5/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
12	ELUSIVE IMAGE	12	30/1	Front-runner	89	84	99.6	77.2	61.2
13	OSKAR MARTINEZ (IRE)	13	6/1	Front-runner	96	85	93.2	86.4	76.9
6	CLOUD MUSIC	6	5/1	Front-runner	94	92	92.3	88.1	75.1
2	SHOGUN BE FAST	2	10/1	Front-runner	93	86	89.2	83.8	67.8
3	CORONOVA	3	15/1	Front-runner	91	77	79.8	75.8	59.8
8	HEAVEN STREET	8	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	90	87	75.2	75.2	58.7
5	TIDAL FORCES	5	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	100	90	86.6	95.0	91.0
14	GHOSTLYPRINCE	14	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	78	86.2	86.6	59.6
4	GOLD FOOT	4	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	102	90	85.2	89.4	79.4
11	BODECREAM	11	4/1	Trailer	94	86	81.2	90.6	85.6
1	SELL SOMETHING	1	8/1	Trailer	92	84	63.6	85.0	74.0
9	SOUTHERN HORSE (ARG)	9	30/1	Trailer	86	79	55.3	76.4	54.9
7	ESTILO MAGICO	7	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	81	70.2	63.4	37.4
10	ALVY	10	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	89	74	28.4	55.9	38.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-09-2025, 08:43 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)
PURCHASE

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 7	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager) $1 Pick Four
Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 59 • Purse: $8,500 • Post: 7:31P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. UNA BRAVA is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * UNA BRAVA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in av erage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HONKY TONK RHYTHM: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	UNA BRAVA	8/5	8/5
4	HONKY TONK RHYTHM	2/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	UNA BRAVA	6	8/5	Front-runner	66	56	57.2	55.4	50.4
4	HONKY TONK RHYTHM	4	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	64	51	50.6	46.1	42.1
1	CUT N CURL	1	4/1	Trailer	54	54	0.0	42.4	34.9
2	U R MY DESTINY	2	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	0.0	43.6	38.1
3	POLAR BEAUTY	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	42.3	22.6	12.1
5	A. P'S LUCKY CHARM	5	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	30.8	35.8	27.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-09-2025, 08:43 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Del Mar

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $26000 Class Rating: 93

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $22,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 LADY OF POWER 4/1
# 8 TRUE PATRIOT 7/2
# 7 LADY LITHESOME 30/1

LADY OF POWER looks to be a respectable contender. Reliable average speed figures in turf route races make this horse a contender. This racer could surprise this field of horses at a solid price. Demonstrates the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 84 speed figure which is one of the best in this group. TRUE PATRIOT - Must be given a chance based on the strong speed rating posted in the last race. Is hard not to consider given the company run in recently. LADY LITHESOME - Looks to have a respectable class edge based on the latest company kept. Going in a turf route race gives this filly a respectable shot.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-09-2025, 08:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Aqueduct - Race #9 - Post: 4:09pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $45,000 Class Rating: 94

Rating:

#3 HAMILTON'S WAY (ML=5/2)
#8 JURISPRUDENCE (ML=9/2)
#1 REAL SAVVY (ML=4/1)

HAMILTON'S WAY - A winning percentage the likes of what Prat and Cox have achieved together is outstanding. In this race here, this race horse has earned the highest speed figure at the distance, so I have to give him the edge. This gelding is in superb condition right now. Finished second last out and comes back promptly. May be extremely hard to beat this steed on the grass today. In the last race scored a nice turf rating, the highest of any of these animals. The mount with the top average class rating in turf events is usually a solid play. This thoroughbred fits the bill. JURISPRUDENCE - I like to bet on this angle, a horse coming back off a good effort within the last thirty days. This trainer brings horses to the grass fit and ready to go, winning over 20 pct of the time under similar conditions. Recent speed figures show strong pattern of improvement. Finished off the board last out at Belmont at the Big A, but was within 5 lengths of the winner. Opening at 9/2 makes me think he's got a chance. REAL SAVVY - This trainer brings horses to the grass fit and ready to go, winning over 20 pct of the time under similar conditions. Clement brings him back again. I advocate you stick with this live horse. Ranks highest in EPS (earnings per start). A solid outing in this event can add to the lifetime total. Last race at Belmont at the Big A, he broke from the far outside. I don't need an advanced degree like The Brain to tell me his inside draw today should help.

Vulnerable Contenders: #16 GOTTA GUY (ML=3/1), #14 ADVENTURIST (ML=8/1), #15 MISSION HILL (ML=8/1),

GOTTA GUY - Unlikely that the fig he earned on Sep 13th will be good enough in this contest. ADVENTURIST - The speed rating last race out doesn't fit very well in this contest when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a questionable contender. MISSION HILL - There's zip, speed, and more early speed in this clash. Doesn't seem too promising for this animal. Don't believe this mount will make a winning move today. That last speed figure was mediocre when compared with today's Equibase class figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 HAMILTON'S WAY to win if you can get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	3 with [1,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,8] Total Cost: $6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-09-2025, 08:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race #6 - Post: 3:34pm - Maiden Special - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $115,100 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#5 TOLD (IRE) (ML=8/1)
#3 SOUPER CALIBER (ML=6/1)

TOLD (IRE) - Attard puts this one in for the first time today. With a solid sire (Lope de Vega (IRE)), I have to like this racer. The 'x-factor' at work here is that this colt has been working over this track getting ready for his first start. SOUPER CALIBER - Based on workouts, I look for this colt to run a big race. In this race here, this horse has recorded the highest speed rating at the distance, so I have to give him the edge. Adding blinkers sometimes leads to a better race on the racetrack. Casse adds Lasix to this one today. I'd look for a significant improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 COURT (ML=9/5), #6 PROUD PAINTER (ML=7/2), #1 NOBURU (ML=5/1),

COURT - The rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this mount as a likely underlay. PROUD PAINTER - Don't believe this racer will do much running in today's event. That last speed rating was disappointing when compared with today's class rating. NOBURU - Mediocre speed figure last time around the track at Woodbine at 1 mile. Don't think this mount will improve too much in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #5 TOLD (IRE) on top if we're getting at least 9/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-09-2025, 08:44 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Maiden - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $16500 Class Rating: 77

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $7,500 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST THREE STARTS ARE LEAST PREFERRED.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 FLEETING HEART 5/2
# 10 FABORITE WAVE 8/1
# 4 EZA ONE 7/2

I think FLEETING HEART is a very good choice. She looks competitive in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. She ought to be given consideration given the competitive speed numbers. Is worth serious consideration and may be a bet - strong speed figures (62 average) at today's distance and surface lately. FABORITE WAVE - Has strong front speed and will most likely fare strongly against this field. Is a strong contender based on figures earned lately under today's conditions.