Wednesday 11/12/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2025, 06:40 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Charles Town $104K Carryover Pick 6 Wednesday

November 11, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

Charles Town tabbed Wednesday night for the mandatory payout of its $104,353 carryover pick 6. The 20-cent base bet with a low 12% takeout begins in Race 3 at approximately 7:57 pm ET. Field sizes are 7-6-7-7-8-9 before scratches. Let’s get to work.

Charles Town: Race 3

Seven maidens stretch out to 1-1/16 miles. CT has had 8 such races in the past year with an average winner just 7-5 odds and only 1 winner over 2-1 ($9 top). #7 Amendment is a solid 7-5 morning line favorite. Delaware Park shippers are 7-15 in the exacta at Charles Town in maiden races so far in 2025. Trainer Kevin Joy and jockey Jose Montano have hit 31% together this year at Charles Town, but have dropped 9 straight (8 at 4-1 or less). Stretch-out candidate #4 Suzies Pride is the logical alternative.

Charles Town: Race 4

A field of 6 starter optional claimers square off. #4 No Love For Juba has won 5 of his last 6 starts (only defeat in the $270K West Virginia Breeders Classic when overmatched). Hard to argue the form at this class and trip. #5 Icing is slightly favored in the morning line and returns from a Maryland and Delaware sojourn this summer and fall. He won 4 races here in 2023, and while he’s changed hands a few times in claims since then, new trainer Tom Iannotti went a sharp 6: 2-2-0 locally during a 6-week run earlier in 2025 and hasn’t been back since March.

Charles Town: Race 5

Seven claimers dash the 4-1/2 furlong signature trip at Charles Town. #3 The Commish is 2-for-2 since arriving at CT from New York and into the Kevin Joy barn. #7 Nothing But Heir will vie for favoritism with The Commish, dropping to score last out as the 3-5 favorite for the always potent Jeff Runco-Arnaldo Bocachica tandem. #5 Blessednotlucky is exceptionally fast from the gate and 6-for-10 in the exacta at this dash trip. He offers value at 12-1 morning line on a slight class drop. #6 Head of the Class has found a home since landing on the Timonium bullring and has won 2 straight after a local CT score that wasn’t far off the top players’ wins in this race.

Charles Town: Race 6

A field of 7 claimers extend to 1-1/16 miles. It’s fair to want to beat 7-5 morning line chalk #3 Mo Joke, who is 1-for-15 and was second at 3-5 odds against similar last out. #6 My Boy Clyde isn’t much better at 2-for-34 with 27 consecutive losses. Do the others inspire? Hardly. But they possess something these two don’t: value. I’ll toss the two chalks and buy the rest while banking on a price.

Charles Town: Race 7

The Wednesday allowance feature lured a field of 8 over 6-1/2 furlongs. #4 Falcon Blue made rather handy work of both Charles Town appearances this fall and his best makes it 3 straight locally. There are other options that look similar at a cusp below the top pick’s best, making him a clear single based on my outlook of the race.

Charles Town: Race 8

Claiming dashers wrap the sequence with a field of 9 going 4-1/2 furlongs. #3 Cameo found out that these dashes are a different ballgame last out in her local debut and battled on the rail when forced. She’ll benefit from that experience and moving out to the 3-path while quicker than the couple to her inside. #4 Unconscious Mind has been tiptoeing toward a win in recent starts and Arnaldo Bocachica is one of the best dash riders ever at CT.

The Ticket

7 with 4,5 with 3,7,5,6 with 1,2,4,5,7 with 4 with 3,4 = $16 for 20 cents

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2025, 06:41 AM

Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Happy Valley | November 12, 2025

November 11, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

Romantic Warrior made his return for a gallop at Sha Tin ahead of his clash with Triple Crown winner, Voyage Bubble, in the G1 Hong Kong Cup. The big names are buzzing in Hong Kong as we build up to what looks like an inevitably huge December 14 card at Sha Tin. James McDonald is back for six mounts on the midweek card at Happy Valley, and we’re hoping to get dialed in with plenty of race days to go before we have to tackle the marquee.

Let’s see what is in store this Wednesday at Happy Valley.

Helpful Resources

Happy Valley – November 12
HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...se=ST&RaceNo=1

Race 3 | 1650M | Class 4
Win/Place - #5 FORERUNNER
Grade: B

Notes: #5 FORERUNNER is certainly not a mainstay in the winner’s circle, but tabbed with a Morning Line of 16/1 I think this six-year-old gelding has plenty to like. First and foremost, his late running style has benefited him far more in these mile-or-longer bouts than the seven furlongs he has been running lately. In two tries, he has placed second by a length and sixth by five with both tries at this racetrack. The expected traffic upfront doesn’t scare me too much, and I don’t see a ton of class or quality in some of the shorter prices. Sometimes, you just have to play for the upside when the price is good enough. In this race, I think the price will end up being plenty high to take a shot at.

Race 5 | 1200M | Class 4
Win - #8 SILVER SPURS
Grade: B

Notes: My database and models tell me a weight handicap is far more significant in sprints than in routes. In three tries with Britney Wong up, #8 SILVER SPURS has won twice and finished a half-length behind in the other. She’s going to have company aboard this gelding, but if she can manage her trip I think she has far more quality in her horse than her front-running companions. The tenth post draw will certainly be a challenge, but SILVER SPURS has been bet down somewhat consistently and I think his 5/1 Morning Line will end up being about spot-on as some others in this field with reputable connections take some money at the windows. Let’s hope his Morning Line holds and watch him glide on home leading a field he should be clearly better than.

Race 8 | 1800M | Class 3
Win - #2 EXCELLENCE VALUE
Grade: A

Notes: #2 EXCELLENCE VALUE is 3-1-2-0 going nine furlongs, just toppled Morning Line favorite #4 WROTE A NEW PAGE over this course at this distance, and will have the added confidence of Zac Purton in the irons. The five-year-old gelding is 8/1 on the Morning Line, which I don’t believe will hold up exactly, but anything close to 4/1 or better will be a no-brainer bet for me.

Race 9 | 1650M | Class 2
Win - #1 SPEED DRAGON
Grade: A

Notes: My speed ratings tell me that #1 SPEED DRAGON ran an absolute lights-out race in his return to Happy Valley to kick off his season campaign. He’s a tad more suited for longer races, but in a Class 2 bout going a mile at Sha Tin he just missed to a very talented JOHANNES BRAHMS. After being scratched out of what would have been his season finale, this six-year-old gelding came back to Happy Valley on October 15th and blew the doors down in what ended up being a very highly rated race. With any deep closer, the trip is going to come into play, but if he looks anything like he did on debut I think he’ll be roaring down the stretch eating up any deficit in his way to victory.

Good luck!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2025, 06:41 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #4

#6 Work'n On A Buzz	Think she'll get an OK trip from out here in a race with a few are at least a little bit questionable at the level. First-over run should do the trick.
#2 Gray Market	She has never been much at this kind of level, but I think you can forgive her for the last one when going long, and her sprint form prior to that was pretty honest. Maybe if she gets loose.
#3 Nublada	She fits, and I don't think there's a ton to argue with here, but I worry the price might get a little short with a little bit of hit-or-miss form on her page. I don't know...
Race Summary	Work'n On A Buzz should get a great tracking trip from the high draw, and I wonder if the price might stay just playable enough in a competitive race?

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#1 Express Fashion	No strong lean in here, but I wonder if her tactical pace may play well on the turnback while in a spot to save ground from the fence. Plug-away finishing run could be the ticket today.
#5 Kerri's Miracle	Don't trust her at all, but she has a couple races on her page that might be good enough to give her a chance in midstretch.
#7 Mizzen the Point	Tactical speed should get an OK run from out here, but I would probably want a better price than we're likely to get based on the sometimes inconsistent form.
Race Summary	Express Fashion turns back with enough pace to keep in touch early on, and she would be playable at something a bit shorter than the ML offering.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#3 Cousin Minnie	Hoping she has the pace to outrace the one drawn just outside of her into the turn, because everyone else is likely to be tracking the splits, so there is some chance she can clear these into the stretch and hold.
#6 Wonder World	Wouldn't argue too hard with you if you landed here, as she brings honest sprint form and wasn't too far off the wire in stakes company at 20/1 last out.
#1 Goosebumps	She's one of those horses who can run well enough to land this, but I don't really trust her to do that at what might not be a very appealing price.
Race Summary	Not sure how the tote is going to shake out here, but I wonder if Cousin Minnie has some midrange appeal while mixing things up early.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2025, 06:42 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #1

#1 HONKY TONK HIGHWAY (6-1)	Idle since voided claim, works encouraging, should sit ideal trip.
#2 TURN UP THE TREES (2-1)	Sped off to two wins and three seconds in 2025, tired chasing in latest.
#6 GILDED RULER (5-1)	Took money on switch to dirt, troubled trip, can rally into gimmicks.
Race Summary	HONKY TONK HIGHWAY, four months removed from a voided vet claim at this level, is working forwardly for his return. He also showed a passing gear in back-to-back 6F wins last year at the Fair Grounds, a move that works well in this speed-laden field. Bet to win and place and play a 1-2-6 exacta box.

Churchill Downs - Race #2

#3 BORN FLAWLESS (5-1)	As game as they come in 6F win at Churchill two back, value remains.
#4 J J’S JOKER (6-1)	Four-wide most of trip, surged in final eight to prevail at 7F at Keeneland.
#2 CHRYSO LOGO (7-2)	Led at stretch call in 5 of last 7 dirt sprints, winning three times.
Race Summary	BORN FLAWLESS, hustled to the lead two starts back, appeared at the mercy of the pressing 4-to-5 favorite late on the turn, but he was resilient in winning a stretch-long battle for his new connections. The $200,000 Churchill Downs earner can use the same tactics but must hold for an extra half-furlong to improve his 5-for-14 record at the track. Bet to win and place and play a 3, 4/2, 3, 4/ALL trifecta.

Churchill Downs - Race #7

#3 GIN’S BEACH ROAD (8-5	Seeks duplicate of Churchill win, speed gives her tactical edge too.
#4 CONTRARY (6-1)	Overcame trouble to win long sprint in debut, then faded in follow-up route.
#1 TROUBLE IN LOVE (7-2)	Solid try as fave after six months away against next-out repeater.
Race Summary	GIN’S BEACH ROAD emerged from a bumpy start that slowed several contenders when she romped to a maiden victory and an 82 Beyer in her lone start at Churchill two back. She stretches out to 7-1/2F today but can control the pace throughout. Bet to win and place and play 3-1 and 3-4 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2025, 06:42 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National
PURCHASE

Penn National - Race 1	W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $0.50 Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $39,000 • Post: 5:45P
FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A PA-RESTRICTED RACE(S) OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 12 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $16,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * DANCING DIANA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest av erage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CASA JUANITA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. SADIE'S GRACE: Jockey/Trainer combina tion return on investment is at least +20. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. WINNING PLAY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Powe r Rating.
3	DANCING DIANA	3/1	4/1
9	CASA JUANITA	5/1	6/1
5	SADIE'S GRACE	4/1	8/1
6	WINNING PLAY	6/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	KASHMIR WITCH	8	8/1	Front-runner	70	69	85.6	49.4	36.9
5	SADIE'S GRACE	5	4/1	Front-runner	85	80	77.4	68.0	60.0
9	CASA JUANITA	9	5/1	Front-runner	88	91	76.2	61.6	57.6
7	COMBAT HOOFS	7	10/1	Front-runner	83	68	74.2	65.2	53.7
6	WINNING PLAY	6	6/1	Front-runner	85	85	70.8	54.6	45.6
2	MORE RANSOM	2	4/1	Front-runner	85	72	62.0	60.0	52.0
3	DANCING DIANA	3	3/1	Trailer	88	81	58.8	78.8	71.3
1	IRISH LOVE SONG	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	56	65.4	58.7	46.2
4	WICKLOW POOKA	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	61	55.4	54.8	38.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2025, 06:43 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town
PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race 8	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
Claiming $5,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $13,600 • Post: 10:17
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. NO WVB CLAUSE.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. MELANCIA is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MELANCIA: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sp rint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. VISCIOUS GOSSIP: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten day s. CAMEO: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. CAIRNHILL: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Ho rse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	MELANCIA	5/2	9/2
9	VISCIOUS GOSSIP	12/1	6/1
3	CAMEO	7/2	7/1
8	CAIRNHILL	6/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	MELANCIA	2	5/2	Front-runner	70	64	91.4	62.4	56.9
7	BAHITI	7	9/2	Front-runner	75	63	85.6	44.8	32.8
3	CAMEO	3	7/2	Front-runner	71	62	74.6	59.0	50.5
8	CAIRNHILL	8	6/1	Front-runner	66	62	65.4	55.6	47.1
1	FONTABELLE	1	10/1	Front-runner	67	59	57.8	48.8	34.3
9	VISCIOUS GOSSIP	9	12/1	Alternator/Front-runner	77	77	68.7	52.4	50.4
4	UNCONSCIOUS MIND	4	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	66	57	55.6	56.6	45.6
5	QUEEN JELLY BEAN	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	56	77.0	46.4	34.9
6	SKY BUY	6	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	63	26.2	48.4	33.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2025, 06:43 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 62

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 UNSHAKEABLE PROOF 8/5
# 9 PUCKSTER 4/1
# 3 OUR BODIE 5/1

UNSHAKEABLE PROOF looks to be a decent contender. Has been running soundly and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance. Reason to like this gelding as he has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last 30 days. Should go to the lead and could never look back. PUCKSTER - Should be given consideration here on the basis of the numbers in the speed realm alone. Gonzalez has a strong 17 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. OUR BODIE - The Equibase class rating of today's affair is much lower than his last affair. This racer has some longshot angles going for him.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2025, 06:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Aqueduct - Race #6 - Post: 2:39pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $70,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#13 LENDALFOOT (ML=6/1)
#9 MISS MAGICAL (ML=6/1)

LENDALFOOT - MISS MAGICAL - This race horse has a lot of class. A good sign in a turf race like we have today. Faced tougher last time out at Saratoga. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker field, so I will put this one on my list of top contenders. She has the top earnings per race entered. Take a good look at this animal.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 SALT PRINCESS (ML=3/1), #1 HONOR THE NUMBERS (ML=9/2), #5 RIVER EMPRESS (ML=5/1),

SALT PRINCESS - Likely won't make much of a mark this time. HONOR THE NUMBERS - Unlikely that this horse will finish better than she did last time out when ending up eighth. Unlikely that the speed rating she notched on Oct 22nd will be good enough in this event. RIVER EMPRESS - Trying to beat this entrant in today's event at the reward of 5/1.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - LENDALFOOT - I'm wagering on this one. The bullet move tells me she's fit and ready for action. Do yourself a favor and play this beautiful animal.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #13 LENDALFOOT to win if you can get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [9,13]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2025, 06:43 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 12. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 12 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 MACAW 6/1
# 4 NANCY MADE MY DAY 7/2
# 7 DUCALE 4/1

MACAW looks competitive to best this field. Solid pick to take this race going in a dirt sprint. Has to be given a chance - I like the figures from the last outing. NANCY MADE MY DAY - This one has been consistently racing well recently. Is hard not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figs which have been solid - 84 avg - of late. DUCALE - He should definitely be carefully examined given the strong speed figures. A solid 98 avg Equibase class rating may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-12-2025, 06:44 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #8 - Post: 3:31pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $36,200 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#2 MIESHA (ML=7/2)
#1 GOOSEBUMPS (ML=3/1)

MIESHA - A winning percent like 41 is terrific for any jock/handler pair. Barbaran should have her moving strong on the turn. Have to like the way Rone has raced this filly back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think she'll run well today. GOOSEBUMPS - This thoroughbred coming off a strong contest in the last month or so is a win candidate in my book. Hamm adds Lasix for the second time today. Its possible this could make the difference right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 WONDER WORLD (ML=2/1), #5 MY KINDA PARTY (ML=4/1), #3 COUSIN MINNIE (ML=6/1),

WONDER WORLD - Tough to back any steed in a short distance event if she hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last couple of months. Can't play this morning-line choice off the extended vacation. MY KINDA PARTY - This mount ran a pedestrian fig in the last race. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably get beat in today's race running that rating. COUSIN MINNIE - In any race of 6 furlongs, I like to bet on a contender that has been looking good in short distance races recently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 MIESHA to win at post-time odds of 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Wednesday 11/12/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 11/12/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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