Saturday 11/15/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-13-2025, 07:08 AM

Race of the Week: Jockey Club Oaks at Aqueduct | Sat 11/15

November 12, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
One of NYRA's newest stakes, the Grade 3 Jockey Club Oaks, will be renewed for just the sixth time on Saturday. While trainers Charlie Appleby and Chad Brown accounted for the last 4 victories in this race, their collective absence in the 2025 edition opens the door for other outfits. The 1-3/8 miles distance has been tried by only 1 of the 8 entrants and will be one of the key evaluations for handicappers.

Horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can take advantage of a 20% Winnings Boost at Churchill Downs this Saturday for the Claiming Crown Day card.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner FIONN has the field's signature score, while LAURELIN is a Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed. SCYTHIAN has a Grade 2 victory on her ledger, while EVERSHED and HEREFORAGOODTIME have been graded stakes-placed. FIONN has consistently kept the top strength of schedule in the lineup.

Pace:
NATIONAL ARCHIVE and EVERSHED both exit wire-to-wire victories, but aren't dead-set front-runners. DON'T JINX IT and SCYTHIAN appear capable of making the front if rider intent chooses to do so. It's not a clear pace evaluation, but it feels on the modest side up front and a deep closer may have to overcome a relative lack of tempo set-up.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-SCYTHIAN: New York-bred won last year's Grade 2 Miss Grillo in open company over this course, but there doesn't appear to be discernible improvement in her 2 starts this year after a 9-month absence. Yet to race beyond 1-1/16 miles, not willing to take the leap with her at 5/16ths of a mile farther while rising in class and carrying co-top weight.

#2-HEREFORAGOODTIME: Consistent sort is 7-for-7 in the money this year for trainer Brendan Walsh and gets a more favorable post draw here than her last 2 Kentucky efforts from the 10-hole. Wants to be in touch with the leaders and has some versatile ability to track the pace at most any tempo. Dropped 2 decisions to Fionn, but hasn't been far off that one and lans John Velazquez for the first time.

#3-NATIONAL ARCHIVE: First of 2 in here for trainer Miguel Clement, whose rookie season has included 10 NYRA turf stakes wins since taking over his late father's barn. Filly has won 2 of 3 elder allowance races under Miguel's care and will be tested for class Saturday. Loses Flavien Prat to Fionn and picks up Manny Franco for the first time. Not without a reasonable chance here and the only proven over the distance to date.

#4-FIONN: Ran out 6 wins in a 7-start streak until a disappointing fourth as the favorite last out in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland. Could never get to runner-up Laurelin in that one and gets a rematch while removing blinkers for the first time in her career. Trainer Brad Cox gets Flavien Prat back aboard, and he's been on a total blitz at Aqueduct since returning from the Breeders' Cup. Prat won this race in 2019 and 2021 and has a NYRA-best 11 turf stakes wins in 2025 (4 more than any other jockey). Modest pace scenario will be the concern as her late kick at shorter distances doesn't have to translate to 11 furlongs.

#5-EVERSHED: Perhaps best-bred in this race for the 1-3/8 miles trip, the Saratoga Oaks and Old Dominion Oaks runner-up looks to get over the top for her first stakes win. BRIS has her sire's average winning distance at 9 furlongs and the damsire at 10.6 furlongs. Arnaud Delacour turns back to Saratoga Oaks jockey Dylan Davis, who won this race last year aboard Beautiful Love. Pace versatility should come in very handy as a strong contender.

#6-DON'T JINX IT: Second of 2 Miguel Clement trainees that includes National Archive. Exits runner-up on soft turf in Delaware Park's Christiana Stakes as the favorite in a slow-paced raced that saw a strong 102 BRIS late pace figure in the kick home that was just second-best. Jockey Manny Franco opts for the other Clement charge, leaving the mount for Jaime Rodriguez, who rode her to a maiden win at Delaware Park in June.

#7-LAURELIN: Graham Motion trainee rattled off 5 straight wins to open her career before a second-place effort in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland. Lost nothing in defeat that day to sharp Lush Lips and now this filly returns to a course in which she's 3-for-3 lifetime. Should vie for favoritism with Fionn as they were separated by less than a point in Kentucky. Outfinished Evershed in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational, and like that one, has a pedigree screaming for the trip (BRIS average winning distances 10 furlongs sire, 9 furlongs damsire). Obvious threat.

#8-UNMERITED FAVOR: Keeneland allowance winner for Kenny McPeek eyes a third straight victory while making her stakes debut. Summer Front filly has steadily improved in each start and has been testing elders in maiden and allowance bouts. Christopher Elliott takes the call as Jose Ortiz opts to stay in Kentucky.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
LAURELIN is 3-for-3 over the course and has never missed an exacta with a 6: 5-1-0 record and pedigree for the trip.

Best Longshot Contender:
EVERSHED was 14-1 when second in the Saratoga Oaks Invitational and should be a fair price again with genes to relish the trip.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$80 exacta LAURELIN over EVERSHED. $20 exacta EVERSHED over LAURELIN.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-15-2025, 11:25 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands All-Stakes Early Pick 4 Analysis

November 15, 2025 | By Al Cimaglia

Tonight, Grand Circuit racing for this season is ending and there are 8 big money stakes on the 14-race card at M1. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (8:25 PM EDT)

5-Atlantic Summer (8-1)-Comes off a 2nd place finish in the Matron as an odds-on choice, before that had a 4th place finish in the BC Final and was parked a long way. Looks like a player at a solid price and Ronnie Wrenn could leave and race near the top of the stack throughout.
9-Nezuko Kamado S (3-1)-Beaten post time chalk in the BC Final got a bumpy ride. Has won 6 of 10 this year and does good work on larger ovals. Makes its M1 debut and will look for Scott Zeron to leave with a purpose and land in a good early seat. Did win 4 straight before the Final and with a smooth journey tonight another winning streak could start.

Race 7 (8:50 PM EDT)

1-Ervin Hanover (3-1)-Winner of 5 in row including the last start in the BC Final is the one to beat. But in 7 races at the Big M has only hit the board once, finishing 3rd. Hasn't been at M1 for a while, will respect chances of another picture, but will use some with more value.
2-Oakwood Ardan IR (12-1)-Has only 2 wins this year and recent form has been dull but some excuses could be found. Did race against tough company, and lately has been starting outside. Will look for an upset and did win early in the year here setting a 147.3 mark. Should be a large price and has posted 13 wins in 17 races at the Big M.
4-Maximus Miki (9/2)-Raced big at RcR to win the Potomac and left from post 8. Has done well at M1 (17-7-4-2) and has a 148.0 mark there. Scott Zeron should be aggressive when the wings fold. Could offer a square price and it's best to not overlook.

Race 8 (9:15 PM EDT)

4-Seaside Shuffle (5-1)-Took the long way around in the BC Final but kept coming down the lane and finished a beaten 3rd. Does have 4 wins in 11 starts and has been resting since 10-24. Needs a trip and Yannick Gingras could work his magic to post a win at a nice price.
10-Loua Dipa (9/5)-If you are looking to fade the best 2-year-old pacing filly there are a couple of reasons to consider. This gal has never started further out than post 6 and this will be her M1 debut. Otherwise, there isn't a reason to think she will lose unless the trip is very bumpy. Her last start was on 10/24 in the BC Final and this late in the season being off 3 weeks could help.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EDT)

4-Fragment (5/2)-Winner of 9 races in 15 starts seemed to get better on the larger ovals later in the season but has not raced at M1. Jason Bartlett will likely look to take control early on but can win coming off cover as well. The Per Engblom pupil has banked over $580,000 and with a clean trip should cash the top check again.

$2 Early Pick 4

5,9/1,2,4/4,10/4
Total Bet=$24