Wednesday 11/19/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Happy Valley | November 19, 2025

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November 18, 2025 | By Johnny Burke

Let’s see what is in store this Wednesday at Happy Valley.

Helpful Resources

Happy Valley – November 19
HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/infor...se=ST&RaceNo=1


Race 1 | 1200M | Class 4

Win/Place - #10 BASIC INSTINCT
Quinella Box – 2,3,10
Grade: B+

Notes: Let’s put this 6/5 Morning Line favorite, #1 SIR CHARGE, on fade alert for the indefinite future. Sure, he’s dropping in class, but my ratings have his last five tries as being woefully uninspiring even when considering the class change. At that price, I wouldn’t bet on him with someone else’s money. A few others intrigue me at solid prices, including #2 WAVE GARDEN and #3 FREE PONY who are both somewhat inconsistent but have banked one solid race in the new season each. Where I’m leaning the hardest is #10 BASIC INSTINCT, who has put in four races in the new season and has improved drastically with each start. He’s going to get a hood and a pacifier for the first time, and I’m hoping they have him dialed in for a shocker to open the card with a 21/1 Morning Line.


Race 5 | 1000M | Class 4

Win/Place - #8 BUNTA BABY
Grade: A

Notes: At 11/1, I think BUNTA BABY is a steal. This five-year-old gelding is going to be carrying only 116 pounds over five furlongs, and I think the weight difference could be what pushes this horse over the line. In his last race, he broke awkwardly and cut his leg and maintained nearly a length’s lead until being taken over at the wire. He’ll get a furlong less to run here, and I’m willing to trust Britney Wong, who’s winning nearly 10% of her starts this season, will have this horse firing out of the gate and never looking back. At his best, BUNTA BABY is the best sprinter in this field, it’s just a matter of whether we get his best. At those odds, I’ll take my shot.


Race 9 | 1600M | Class 3

Quinella Box – 2,3,12
Grade: A

Notes: The problem I have with this race is I like a few too many horses. I think #2 SOUTH STAR is more than deserving of the 7/2 Morning Line, but not unbeatable. #3 HIGHLAND RAHY, when at his best, is more than capable of taking down this field with a Morning Line of 10/1. #12 SUPER UNICORN started the new season pretty slow, tried the All-Weather course, and then bounced back for a race like this and ran a strong figure. There’s a healthy mix of potential meeting overall quality in this race, but I think the prices will be fair and give us a chance to mix the most likely outcomes in a way that still pays itself off. Let’s play these three in a Quinella and root for the best-paying combination to get home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeremy Plonk: Tampa Bay Opening Day Wednesday Plays

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November 17, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

Tampa Bay Downs opens its 2025-'26 racing season Wednesday and we'll look to keep a little momentum going after a $40.60 exacta score to close our Parx spot plays in this space on Tuesday. Tampa Bay's 9-race card on opening day boasts 10+ entries across the final 8 races. First post is slated for 12:40 pm ET.

Tampa Bay Downs | Race 4 | 2:10 pm ET

#9 Precious Cat (15-1 morning line odds) has a longshot look in her second career start. She never got uncorked in a turf sprint at The Meadowlands, but horses from that circuit were very effective moving turf-to-dirt here during the initial weeks of last year’s Tampa Bay Downs meeting. Note trainer Mike Dini had 4 top-2 finishers from his first 10 starters here last season, including a 12-1 winner via the Meadowlands. Win-place #9.

Tampa Bay Downs | Race 7 | 3:40 pm ET

#4 Princess Bettina (8-1 morning line odds) makes yet another trainer change and appears first time for the high-percentage Jose D’Angelo outfit. She’s faced tougher competition throughout her career and should fit
very well with a pressing running style. D’Angelo scored his first turf starter of last year’s Tampa Bay Downs meeting with Samuel Marin riding. Win bet #4. Exacta key-box 4 with 2,9,10.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #3

#4 Power Vision	I don't think much of her overall form, but she at least passed a few horses in non-threatening efforts a couple times, and that gives her chance to maybe bring something better today at a price.
#7 Sweet Kylie	She has some mild ability to get past horses, and that could serve her well in a spot like this where most of them can't punch on late. Stakes-placed dropper can land this.
#1 Mshawish'Girl	She could be dangerous speed from the inside, but she idled just a touch late in her starts so far, and I could see her doing that again today.
Race Summary	Not much to write home about on paper for Power Vision, but I wonder if this race might lend itself to something plugging along from the back?

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#3 Knicks Glory	Tactical speed should get a good run of things today, and I think you can lean on him at what might be a modest kind of price.
#6 Quick Tempo	Wouldn't be a shock to see him land this one, as I'm not sure he has a ton of super serious sprint speed to deal with in this spot. Could shake free on the turn.
#2 Lucky Jeremy	Tough to trust his form, but he has done his work against a lot of groups that were much better than what he'll find here. No idea what to make of him sprinting today.
Race Summary	Knicks Glory should get another great run from a spying spot, and he has been a really good fit since showing up on the Ohio circuit.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#7 He's in Charge	He has been an absolute machine and goes today in search of 10 in a row. Deserving short price will take some beating.
#8 Trikitraki	His style might let him just stay hooked to the outside of the chalk and try to keep pace with him, but that's a tall order -- still, he should be in the right spot if that guy isn't running on today.
#5 Reinvest	Reliable finisher has been competitive with some of these this year, but I worry that he's going to give the top two the jump turning for home.
Race Summary	He's in Charge should be a handful today at a short number while racing on nine wins in a row. Trikitraki seems like the most reasonable alternative.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1

#4 OMIKAMI (7-2)	Steady router, changes surfaces, ran on short rest last out, needs pace to run at.
#8 SHY SHY (2-1)	Stretches back out for top claim barn, beat weak field in lone win on dirt two back.
#1 FABULOUS CANDY (5-2)	Won at this distance at Tampa to start year, earning a lot of checks since.
Race Summary	OMIKAMI finished first or second in 4 of 10 route races on Presque Isle Downs’ synthetic track this year. If she handles the transition to conventional dirt and gets ample pace flow, she should produce another contentious, upper-60 Beyer speed figure. Bet to win and place and play 4-1 and 4-8 exactas.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2

#2 OOPS HAHA (5-1)	Burned serious money all year at Tampa, one more chance off comeback try.
#11 QUEEN ATLAS (3-1)	Two-time winner built long leads in 4 of 6 non-stakes, shortens up, draws post 11.
#4 EARLY DELIVERY (12-1)	Rallied for share in 2 of 3 at Gulfstream recently, sheds 12 pounds.
Race Summary	OOPS HAHA had a useful return off a six-month layoff against better rivals and she has a 10/2-2-2 record at Tampa in the past year. She ran second in a long sprint at Tampa to start the year, but she lost four times as the favorite. Bet to win and place and play a 2-4-11 exacta box.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3

#7 ISSANO (5-1)	Versatile, adds blinkers, good fit with these in first go-round at Tampa.
#10 COERCIVE (3-1)	Chased fast pace and tired at Gulfstream, gets in light-weighted.
#9 FIT TO FIRE (4-1)	Easy maiden win in April, tries to snap barn’s long winless streak with similar layoff types.
Race Summary	ISSANO arrives from up North with steady sprint form at various venues. He gets Gallardo to ride, wears blinkers for the first time and offers good value. Bet to win and place and play a 7-ALL exacta.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs
PURCHASE

Evangeline Downs - Race 1	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 220 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 58 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 5:35P
QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * INSEPERABLE CARTEL B: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equiba se Speed Rating. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
4	INSEPERABLE CARTEL B	2/1	6/5

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	A POLITICAL BILL	1	10/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	KLEYOPATRA	2	3/1	Average	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	GIA I HEAR A CORONA	3	4/1	Slow	0	0	8.8	0.0	0.0
4	INSEPERABLE CARTEL B	4	2/1	Fast	84	80	2.7	0.0	0.0
5	TIERRA NEYRA	5	6/1	Slow	0	0	9.7	0.0	0.0
6	SHEZA MAGIC VISION	6	12/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	SHEZADASHINSHEBA	7	5/1	Slow	77	61	6.2	0.0	0.0

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
PURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 8	Exacta/Trifecta (.50 min.)/Superfecta (.10 min.)
Claiming $4,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $11,500 • Post: 8:00P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE MAY 19, 2025. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 19 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000. LOUISIANA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. MISSION BELLE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MISSION BELLE: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth sta rt after a layoff. GASTOWN: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BLAZE ON: Horse ranks in the top three in Tra ckMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). FRONT AND SILVER: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse ha s the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	MISSION BELLE	7/2	7/2
10	GASTOWN	5/2	6/1
3	BLAZE ON	15/1	8/1
2	FRONT AND SILVER	10/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	MISSION BELLE	1	7/2	Alternator/Front-runner	74	68	60.5	65.3	59.3
8	FLOWERSFORSHANTELL	8	6/1	Stalker	79	75	41.2	54.8	46.3
4	MIZ JAMESON	4	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	66	67.2	63.3	49.3
2	FRONT AND SILVER	2	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	80	70	49.4	66.0	58.5
10	GASTOWN	10	5/2	Trailer	87	73	55.0	65.4	62.4
3	BLAZE ON	3	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	87	73	49.4	67.6	62.6
6	HARD SPIRITS	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	53	53.8	51.4	32.9
5	CHROME RACER	5	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	66	47.4	58.2	42.7
7	ELI'S GIRL	7	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	68	36.0	53.8	36.8
9	HARDLY MISCHIEVOUS	9	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	61	33.6	59.0	45.0

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $26000 Class Rating: 88

FOR FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE STATE BRED RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 SHE'S GRAND 7/2
# 1 THE SHOE LADY 5/2
# 4 FABULOUS FOX 3/1

SHE'S GRAND is my choice. Handler boasts very strong win figs at this distance and surface. With a very good 88 speed fig last time out, will surely be a factor in this contest. Ferraro has this filly racing well and is a quite good selection based on the quite good Equibase Speed Figures garnered in route races lately. THE SHOE LADY - Demonstrates the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 72 speed figure which is one of the top in this field. Her earnings per start in dirt route events alone makes you take a look at her. FABULOUS FOX - Looks to have a formidable class edge based on the recent company kept. Has to be given a chance against this group displaying formidable figures lately and an average speed rating of 86 under similar conditions.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 32

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. 3# A CLASFS.$4,000 ALLOWED 3 LBS. 4# A DEBTS ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 EASTERSUNDAYSECRET 3/1
# 2 ZYAN 9/5
# 3 DON RUFFO 2/1

EASTERSUNDAYSECRET looks to be a very strong contender. ZYAN - Trainer boasts sharp win figures at this distance and surface. Diaz has a winning percentage of 37 over the last 30 days. DON RUFFO - Pena has one of the strongest winning percentages in this group of animals with entries running at this distance and surface.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4 - Post: 2:10pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,500 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#8 QUESTNBLED'CISIONS (ML=2/1)
#6 LA CHISMOSA (ML=3/1)
#9 PRECIOUS CAT (ML=15/1)


QUESTNBLED'CISIONS - This horse should be motoring in the lane. LA CHISMOSA - This jock and trainer are reliable together. Win percent when teamed up is extremely hard to top. PRECIOUS CAT - Maiden is changing over to the dirt, and may not have liked the turf last out. Has a good chance to break maiden status.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 GREAT ACTRESS (ML=7/2),

GREAT ACTRESS - Hard to take this less than sharp equine at these odds after the result (ninth) in the last race. Notched a mediocre speed rating in the last race in a $75,000 Maiden Optional Claiming race on November 1st. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that number.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #8 QUESTNBLED'CISIONS on the nose if you can get odds of 2/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	8 with [6,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [6,8,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE





Turf Paradise - Race #6 - Post: 3:40pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

#7 PHAROAHS LIST (ML=5/2)
#1 BUCK OWENS (ML=4/1)


PHAROAHS LIST - When Castellanos and Rosales team up on animals the return on investment has been wonderful at +50. Sub-par try last out at Grants Pass was due to the off-going (he finished sixth). Expect better in this race under better track conditions. BUCK OWENS - Getting a weight break of 6 lbs from last race at Sweetwater Downs on September 28th. Should help in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 STRENGTH OF AUTISM (ML=8/5), #2 RONAMO (ML=5/1),

STRENGTH OF AUTISM - Doesn't appear to have enough positive angles to bear out the price. RONAMO - A bit of a less than stellar effort when this gelding finished ninth.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - PHAROAHS LIST - This horse has lone pace. Keep that in the forefront of your mind when you place your investment.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #7 PHAROAHS LIST on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None