Saturday 11/29/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:10 PM

Churchill Downs Tip Sheet - November 29

Nov. 29, 2025

Race #1

Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 01:00 PM ET

Best Bet #1 GLOW OF A ROSE $120,000.00

Race 1 Maiden Special Weight

Win	3-1	1	Glow of a Rose	J Rosario
Place	20-1	2	Dream From Within	C J Lanerie
Show	8-1	3	Dancin in Old Town	V Cheminaud
Wild card	7-2	11	Search Party	J L Ortiz
Alternate 1	5-1	5	All About You	B J Hernandez Jr.
Alternate 2	4-1	8	Sticker Shock	I Ortiz Jr.

Exacta 1-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-11 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/3 BOX, 2/3/11 BOX

Race #2

Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 01:28 PM ET

Best Bet #15 EMPIRE WEST $120,000.00

Race 2 Maiden Special Weight

Win	3-1	15	Empire West	I Ortiz Jr.
Place	5-1	16	Moluccan	L Saez
Show	7-2	3	Flaming Rainbow	B J Hernandez Jr.
Wild card	10-1	9	Light Cav	J D Ramos
Alternate 1	5-2	1	Happy Prince	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	5-1	2	Royal Causeway	F Geroux

Exacta 15-16 BOX, 16-3 BOX, 3-9 BOX
Trifecta 3/15/16 BOX, 3/9/16 BOX

Race #3

Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 01:56 PM ET

Best Bet #12 PRESUMPTUOUS $120,000.00

Race 3 Maiden Special Weight

Win	3-1	12	Presumptuous	T Gaffalione
Place	5-1	2	No Time Left	B J Hernandez Jr.
Show	5-1	14	Maximum Offer	B J Hernandez Jr.
Wild card	8-1	10	White Smoke	L Saez
Alternate 1	10-1	5	Powered by Family	J L Ortiz
Alternate 2	8-1	1	Al Ghadeer	D Sheehy

Exacta 12-2 BOX, 2-14 BOX, 14-10 BOX
Trifecta 2/12/14 BOX, 2/10/14 BOX

Race #4

Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 02:24 PM ET

Best Commentary $225,000 ED BROWN STAKES $225,000.00

Race 4 Stakes

Win	1-1	6	Boyd	F Prat
Place	3-1	1	Gallivant	L Machado
Show	2-1	5	Stradale	J Rosario
Wild card	12-1	2	Bobrovsky	J Alvarado
Alternate 1	15-1	4	Ganaas	T Gaffalione
Alternate 2	15-1	3	Big Dom	J L Ortiz

Exacta 6-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
Trifecta 1/5/6 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

COMMENTS: BOYD won his debut with ease as the heavy favorite. GALLIVANT showed better early pace and fractions last out. STRADALE ran the highest last race speed figure and has a trio of works since. BOBROVSKY is a little racing luck from winning four of four races.

Race #5

Dirt 1 Mile - Post Time: 02:55 PM ET $127,000.00

Race 5 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	8-1	2	Stop the Car	T Gaffalione
Place	1-1	4	Its Our Time	J L Ortiz
Show	10-1	9	Bust Out	L Saez
Wild card	15-1	5	Tripps Promise	C J Lanerie
Alternate 1	15-1	7	Fulmine	L Machado
Alternate 2	8-1	6	Misinformation	F Prat

Exacta 2-4 BOX, 4-9 BOX, 9-5 BOX
Trifecta 2/4/9 BOX, 4/5/9 BOX

Race #6

Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 03:25 PM ET $120,000.00

Race 6 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-2	5	Core Memories	J L Ortiz
Place	5-2	4	Kentucky Belle	I Ortiz Jr.
Show	4-1	13	Tam Tam	J L Ortiz
Wild card	4-1	16	Market Chill	F Prat
Alternate 1	8-1	12	Alone Time	F Prat
Alternate 2	8-1	9	A. P.s Girl	L Saez

Exacta 5-4 BOX, 4-13 BOX, 13-16 BOX
Trifecta 4/5/13 BOX, 4/13/16 BOX

Race #7

Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 03:55 PM ET $120,000.00

Race 7 Maiden Special Weight

Win	3-1	6	Maximum Effort	J L Ortiz
Place	10-1	1	Albus	J A Torres
Show	6-1	2	Liberty National	B J Hernandez Jr.
Wild card	10-1	11	Market Runner	J Rosario
Alternate 1	4-1	12	Swift Blade	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	8-1	7	Tiernanogue	T Gaffalione

Exacta 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX, 2-11 BOX
Trifecta 1/2/6 BOX, 1/2/11 BOX

Race #8

Dirt 6 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:25 PM ET

Best Commentary $225,000 FERN CREEK STAKES $225,000.00

Race 8 Stakes

Win	15-1	10	I B Flyin	J Rosario
Place	5-2	6	A Fine Chardonnay	T Gaffalione
Show	3-1	7	On Time Girl	I Ortiz Jr.
Wild card	7-2	2	Paige Turner	J L Ortiz
Alternate 1	30-1	4	Have Faith	C A Torres
Alternate 2	6-1	1	Solemn Vow	B J Hernandez Jr.

Exacta 10-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
Trifecta 6/7/10 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX

COMMENTS: I B FLYIN could be a long shot with a chance with typical second race improvement. A FINE CHARDONNAY has better early pace in her last and won her lone Churchill race with ease. ON TIME GIRL is undefeated in two and could have more untapped potential. PAIGE TURNER could benefit from cutting a little in distance.

Race #9

Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 04:55 PM ET $120,000.00

Race 9 Maiden Special Weight

Win	6-1	3	No Joke Joe	L Saez
Place	7-2	7	Instant Impact	E Esquivel
Show	6-1	1	Clarks Corner	J R Leparoux
Wild card	10-1	11	Supercharger	J L Ortiz
Alternate 1	8-1	15	High Honors	L Saez
Alternate 2	12-1	8	Sun Chaser	D Sheehy

Exacta 3-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-11 BOX
Trifecta 1/3/7 BOX, 1/7/11 BOX

Race #10

Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 05:25 PM ET

Best Commentary $400,000 KY JOCKEY CLUB GRADE II $400,000.00

Race 10 Stakes

Win	8-1	3	Dr. Kapur	J L Ortiz
Place	4-1	4	Soldier N Diplomat	T Gaffalione
Show	9-2	7	Universe	B J Hernandez Jr.
Wild card	7-5	6	Further Ado	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 1	3-1	2	Cherokee Nation	F Prat
Alternate 2	12-1	1	Spice Runner	J Rosario

Exacta 3-4 BOX, 4-7 BOX, 7-6 BOX
Trifecta 3/4/7 BOX, 4/6/7 BOX

COMMENTS: DR KAPUR is a neck away from being undefeated in two. SOLDIER N DIPLOMAT won his last by nine in his first attempt at Churchill. UNIVERSE should be involved from start to finish. FURTHER ADO improved in every race and win his last by an amazing twenty lengths.

Race #11

Dirt 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 05:54 PM ET

Best Commentary $400,000 GOLDEN ROD GRADE II $400,000.00

Race 11 Stakes

Win	10-1	11	Bella Ballerina	T Gaffalione
Place	7-5	12	Explora	F Prat
Show	9-2	5	Letmecounttheways	J Rosario
Wild card	4-1	6	Life of Joy	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 1	15-1	1	Baracca	A Concepcion
Alternate 2	15-1	3	Just Singing	L Machado

Exacta 11-12 BOX, 12-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
Trifecta 5/11/12 BOX, 5/6/12 BOX

COMMENTS: BELLA BALLERINA could strike at a nice price with second race improvement. EXPLORA is a little racing luck away from being undefeated in four. LETMECOUNTTHEWAYS is undefeated in two easy wins. LIFE OF JOY is another that is unbeaten in two and both as the favorite.

Race #12

Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:26 PM ET $120,000.00

Race 12 Maiden Special Weight

Win	6-1	6	Cornwall Boss	A Concepcion
Place	10-1	7	Associated	J D Ramos
Show	12-1	4	Magic Moose	L Machado
Wild card	3-1	11	Dragones	T Gaffalione
Alternate 1	5-2	8	Cannoneer	I Ortiz Jr.
Alternate 2	12-1	1	Circle Me	S Camacho Jr.

Exacta 6-7 BOX, 7-4 BOX, 4-11 BOX
Trifecta 4/6/7 BOX, 4/7/11 BOX

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:11 PM

Del Mar Tip Sheet - November 29

Nov. 29, 2025

Race #1

Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 02:30 PM ET $34,000.00

Race 1 Starter Optional Claiming

Win	8-1	9	Infinity Dream	M Demuro
Place	5-1	11	Garden Party	D A Herrera
Show	8-1	10	Rehearsal	J J Hernandez
Wild card	7-2	2	Cat The Confidante	H I Berrios
Alternate 1	8-1	5	Time to Shine	A Fresu
Alternate 2	8-1	4	Aleramo	R Gonzalez

Exacta 9-11 BOX, 11-10 BOX, 10-2 BOX
Trifecta 9/10/11 BOX, 2/10/11 BOX

Race #2

Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 03:00 PM ET $18,000.00

Race 2 Claiming

Win	1-1	3	Whats the Buzz	T J Pereira
Place	7-5	6	Majestic Palisades	A Aguilar
Show	12-1	5	One Big Smile	W R Orantes
Wild card	12-1	4	Luckys Loaded	K Frey
Alternate 1	8-1	2	Pat Cant Count	A Ayuso
Alternate 2	15-1	1	Formidable Threat	S Carmona

Exacta 3-6 BOX, 6-5 BOX, 5-4 BOX
Trifecta 3/5/6 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX

Race #3

Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 03:30 PM ET

Best Bet #8 CHERRY CIDER $60,000.00

Race 3 Maiden Special Weight

Win	4-1	8	Cherry Cider	H I Berrios
Place	15-1	6	Heavenly Belle	W R Orantes
Show	15-1	11	Soul Sister	K Frey
Wild card	15-1	3	Hawaiian Moon	J R Velazquez
Alternate 1	7-2	9	Ramayana	U Rispoli
Alternate 2	5-1	5	Surfin U. S. A.	J J Hernandez

Exacta 8-6 BOX, 6-11 BOX, 11-3 BOX
Trifecta 6/8/11 BOX, 3/6/11 BOX

Race #4

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 04:02 PM ET

Best Bet #3 DIRTY WORDS $20,000.00

Race 4 Maiden Claiming

Win	3-1	3	Dirty Words	A Fresu
Place	5-2	6	Grinnell	R Gonzalez
Show	4-1	4	Seattle Surf	M Demuro
Wild card	7-2	1	Uncle Evco	T J Pereira
Alternate 1	20-1	7	Circle of Fire	A Aguilar
Alternate 2	15-1	5	Citizen Barrett	W R Orantes

Exacta 3-6 BOX, 6-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
Trifecta 3/4/6 BOX, 1/4/6 BOX

Race #5

Turf 1 1/16 Miles - Post Time: 04:32 PM ET

Best Commentary $200,000 SEABISCUIT HANDICAP GRADE II $200,000.00

Race 5 Stakes

Win	7-2	5	El Potente	H I Berrios
Place	5-2	9	Stay Hot	J J Hernandez
Show	5-1	3	Almendares	J R Velazquez
Wild card	5-1	8	Cabo Spirit	U Rispoli
Alternate 1	12-1	7	Old Pal	A Lezcano
Alternate 2	6-1	2	Sumter	M E Smith

Exacta 5-9 BOX, 9-3 BOX, 3-8 BOX
Trifecta 3/5/9 BOX, 3/8/9 BOX

COMMENTS: EL POTENTE tends to run hot off the bench like today. STAY HOT hit the board in five of six on Del Mar turf. ALMENDARES is a highly consistent performer that tends to make one big move that needs to be timed correctly. CABO SPIRIT is another that run well fresh.

Race #6

Dirt 6 Furlongs - Post Time: 05:02 PM ET $60,000.00

Race 6 Maiden Special Weight

Win	3-1	5	A Great Shaking	K Kimura
Place	5-2	8	Tate Batz	A Fresu
Show	6-1	4	Scotlynn Rae	T J Pereira
Wild card	6-1	1	Dottie Hinson	W R Orantes
Alternate 1	8-1	6	Atina Liz	K Frey
Alternate 2	15-1	7	Long Range Pursuit	A Lezcano

Exacta 5-8 BOX, 8-4 BOX, 4-1 BOX
Trifecta 4/5/8 BOX, 1/4/8 BOX

Race #7

Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 05:32 PM ET

Best Commentary $100,000 JIMMY DURANTE GRADE III $100,000.00

Race 7 Stakes

Win	6-1	4	Just Aloof	H I Berrios
Place	20-1	11	Cee Drew	R Gonzalez
Show	7-2	9	Hypergamy	A Fresu
Wild card	8-1	2	Special Wood	J R Velazquez
Alternate 1	8-1	5	La Ville Lumiere	K Kimura
Alternate 2	8-1	6	Sweet Little Lila	M E Smith

Exacta 4-11 BOX, 11-9 BOX, 9-2 BOX
Trifecta 4/9/11 BOX, 2/9/11 BOX

COMMENTS: JUST ALOOF can go way past par for this level with typical second race improvement. CEE DREW is another second race runner where normal improvement could be enough. HYPERGAMY ran better race internals from start to finish and has a strong work between starts. SPECIAL WOOD comes in from France with solid turf predigree.

Race #8

Dirt 5 1/2 Furlongs - Post Time: 06:02 PM ET $60,000.00

Race 8 Maiden Special Weight

Win	7-2	7	Joker Went Wild	D A Herrera
Place	6-1	4	Monsieur Big	J R Velazquez
Show	3-1	8	Moonshiner	K Kimura
Wild card	4-1	5	Off the Bench	A Ayuso
Alternate 1	5-1	6	Parnelli Jones	A Lezcano
Alternate 2	30-1	3	Cornealeusthegreat	J Laprida

Exacta 7-4 BOX, 4-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
Trifecta 4/7/8 BOX, 4/5/8 BOX

Race #9

Turf 1 1/8 Miles - Post Time: 06:32 PM ET

Best Commentary $300,000 HOLLYWOOD DERBY GRADE I $300,000.00

Race 9 Stakes

Win	5-2	3	Test Score	J J Hernandez
Place	7-2	9	Toms Magic	A Fresu
Show	5-1	8	Tempus Volat	M Demuro
Wild card	6-1	2	Friendly Confines	H I Berrios
Alternate 1	9-2	4	Salamis	U Rispoli
Alternate 2	5-1	1	Maaz	R Gonzalez

Exacta 3-9 BOX, 9-8 BOX, 8-2 BOX
Trifecta 3/8/9 BOX, 2/8/9 BOX

COMMENTS: TEST SCORE is undefeated in a pair at the distance. TOMS MAGIC has four wins and a second in five on grass. TEMPUS VOLAT was improved from gate to wire in his last. FRIENDLY CONFINES could run a career best in the second up.

Race #10

Dirt 7 Furlongs - Post Time: 07:02 PM ET

Best Bet #7 MADAKET ROAD $61,000.00

Race 10 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	8-5	7	Madaket Road	J J Hernandez
Place	6-1	1	Speedy Wilson	A Ayuso
Show	15-1	9	Lawless World	K Frey
Wild card	5-1	10	Comedy Town	H I Berrios
Alternate 1	8-1	8	Mescalero	U Rispoli
Alternate 2	8-1	5	Tessuto	M E Smith

Exacta 7-1 BOX, 1-9 BOX, 9-10 BOX
Trifecta 1/7/9 BOX, 1/9/10 BOX

Race #11

Turf 1 Mile - Post Time: 07:32 PM ET $61,000.00

Race 11 Allowance Optional Claiming

Win	5-1	11	Hiding in Honduras	M Demuro
Place	9-2	5	Tariff	H I Berrios
Show	12-1	6	Final Edition	A Fresu
Wild card	12-1	14	Dakota Country	W Antongeorgi III
Alternate 1	12-1	2	Uncle Happy	D A Herrera
Alternate 2	7-2	4	Lyle The Crocodile	K Kimura

Exacta 11-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-14 BOX
Trifecta 5/6/11 BOX, 5/6/14 BOX

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:11 PM

Scott Shapiro: Saturday's Stars of Tomorrow Churchill Spot Plays

by Scott Shapiro

The final weekend of the year at Churchill Downs is upon us, which means big fields and likely a juicy Derby City 6 pool with a mandatory payout on Sunday afternoon. First things first though since Saturday is one of my favorite cards of the year under the twin spires. Not only does the Stars of Tomorrow II card include a plethora of maiden special weight events for juveniles, but also gets us back on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks. Also note that Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager closes at 6 pm ET.

My top plays on the day come over the middle part of the card where I am hopeful deuces are wild!

Race 6:

This MSW event for 2YO fillies at two-turns over the grass feels wide-open since I am against 5-2-ML favorite #4 Kentucky Belle. The Justify filly has lost at 5-2 and 6-5 already and comes in off an underwhelming third in her turf debut. She is capable of a move forward with the addition of blinkers, but I am going to take a big swing against her with #2 Karma Cat. This daughter of Practical Joke debuted and was outrun in a live MSW sprint over the main track at Saratoga before getting caught hopelessly wide into the first turn in her grass debut at Keeneland on October 18. She tired badly that afternoon in Lexington, but it was an impossible trip from the get-go. Now, the Whit Beckman trainee moves inside and possesses some early speed in a race that appears void of it for the most part. Hopefully, jockey Joe Ramos gets aggressive from the gate and gets this gal into a favorable forward position. I expect her to outrun her odds if so.

Play: #2 Karma Cat (20-1)

Race 7:

These 1 1/16-miles dirt MSW races at Churchill Downs often contain some colts that we will see on the Road to the Derby at some point. I am hopeful one of those is #2 Liberty National. The $525k Keeneland September 2024 purchase debuted at Keeneland last month for trainer Kenny McPeek in what clearly looked like a prep at 7-furlongs. The son of Maxfield broke well, but then was taken in hand by jockey Jose Ortiz. From there Ortiz let Liberty National drop hopelessly out of it before putting in a decent late run with a solid gallop out. McPeek often uses first starts as a lesson and now he turns to jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. and stretches his trainee out to a route of ground. I expect a big move forward at a solid price.

Play: #2 Liberty National (6-1 ML)

Race 8: Fern Creek Stakes ($10,000 Turkey Bowl Promo-Eligible Race)

My top stakes play of the day comes in this 6.5-furlong dash for 2YO fillies where I love the chances of #2 Paige Turner. The $350k daughter of Army Mule has done very little wrong through two starts for trainer Cherie DeVaux. Her second on debut at Saratoga came with a trip between rivals that rarely results in a strong finish and she followed it up with a dominant victory over this surface going 7-panels on Halloween. The inside draw is likely to present a different type of trip than her stress-free outside stalking voyage in her maiden breaker, but she showed the ability to deal with adversity in August and has the look of a serious female sprinter.

Play: #2 Paige Turner (7-2 ML)

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:12 PM

Scott Shapiro: $184K Carryover / Mandatory Payout Gulfstream Pick 6 Analysis | Saturday, November 29, 2025

by Scott Shapiro

It is the first Saturday of Gulfstream Park's Championship Meet, which in 2025 also means a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6. With a carryover of over $184k built up over the past couple of weeks, track officials are anticipating a pool of around $2M when the sequence kicks off in Race 6 at approximately 2:44 PM eastern time. Here are my thoughts.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 6:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Prevent
Backups: 7 Classic of Course

Forecast: The Rainbow kicks off with this high-level handicap event at two-turns over the all-weather where #5 Prevent not only gets back to his preferred surface, but also is likely to find himself on an uncontested lead under jockey Emisael Jaramillo. The 6-time winner has earned 5 of his career victories over this surface and should be tough to catch late. If Prevent gets challenged more on the front end than it appears on paper, #7 Classic of Course is the likeliest to take advantage. The Florida-bred has proven versatile winning on 3 different surfaces through his first 15 starts, including an off the pace victory three-back over the all-weather at this same distance. Regular rider Jonathan Ocasio will remain onboard.

Race 7:
Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3 Spirit Prince
Backups: None

Forecast: My strongest opinion of the sequence comes in this optional claimer over the lawn where the pace should be honest at the very least. This bodes well for #3 Spirit Prince. The Miguel Clement trainee comes in off a third-place effort at Kentucky Downs won on the front end by a horse for course named Quartocento. Prior to that, the Cairo Prince colt came from off the pace to beat a first-level allowance bunch at Monmouth Park. He comes in fresh and should get a ground saving, off the pace voyage under veteran jockey Joe Bravo. All in on #3 Spirit Prince!

Race 8:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Heaven’s Promise; 2 Diamonds N Thrills
Backups: None

Forecast: I am also expecting a lively early tempo in this beaten $8k claimer over the all-weather, which should benefit those who can settle off the pace early and finish with energy. #1 Heaven’s Promise fits the profile. The Union Rags filly ships back to Florida from the Mid-Atlantic and drops to the lowest level of her career. Her maiden victory came over this surface in April and she draws favorably along the rail. #2 Diamonds N Thrills is unlikely to offer the value of my top choice, but also fits the profile of a horse that is likely to make the most of the likely race shape. The Spun to Run filly has hit the board in 8 of 11 over the Gulfstream Park synthetic and should get a much better setup than she did earlier this month when they went 25.1 and 50.2 in the early stages.

Race 9:
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Makeit to Cheyenne
Backups: 2 Xy Speed

Forecast: This five-furlong dash over the grass offers up a rematch of the October 26 race won by #5 Makeit to Cheyenne. The D J Stable gelding got a cleaner trip than #2 Xy Speed that day and held off the veteran by a head to spring the upset. Xy Speed certainly brings the strongest resume in, but draws inside again and certainly is not the same horse he once was. He can win as the public choice in what looks like a two-horse race, but I prefer Makeit to Cheyenne. The addition of blinkers has the Joe Orseno trainee moving in the right direction, while it is hard to imagine Xy Speed posting a career best in career start 49. Either way, I expect one of them to get to the wire first with a preference to Makeit to Cheyenne.

Race 10: Florida Sire In Reality S.
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5 Strategic Risk
Backups: 1 Khozalite

Forecast: The colts and geldings finale for the 2YO Florida Sire Series is a 1 1/16-miles event over the main track where the majority of the field has stamina questions to answer. #1 Khozalite already responded with a two-turn victory over the turf against MSW company in late August before cutting back to one-turn to win the Affirmed last month. He is the clear one to beat, but will have to work out a trip from the inside with plenty of other speed types drawn to his outside. He is hard to toss given the question marks throughout the field, but I prefer the value of #5 Strategic Risk. The son of Noble Bird has not won at a route of ground like Khozalite, but has the pedigree to handle the added distance. He comes in off a third-place effort in the aforementioned Affirmed. I am banking on him getting a quality mid-pack trip under jockey Javier Castellano. At his 8-1-ML offering, he is also worth a Win bet using Xpressbet and 1ST/BET’s Money Back offer. Remember to register for that promotion!

Race 11:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 6 Eton
Backups: 4 Change at Jamaica; 2 The Great Oscar

Forecast: The sequence and the first Saturday of the Championship Meet conclude with a non winners of two event over the sod where I like #6 Eton most. The English Channel gelding moves back to the lawn in his first start off the claim for trainer Carlos David. David clicks at well over 20% recently off the claim and this guy gets back to his preferred surface. It appears his race to lose. If he fails as the likely post-time favorite, perhaps #2 The Great Oscar or #4 Change at Jamaica can come rolling late and close this out. Either way, best of luck on the opening Saturday at Gulfstream Park!

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:13 PM

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:13 PM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #5

#2 Sumter	Deeper waters here, but that last one was pretty sharp and probably didn't take a whole lot out of him. Dangerous with anything like that right back.
#3 Almendares	Have always thought pretty highly of this guy and think he's a player in this spot. He has knocked heads with the west's best over the last couple years and misses some of the big names today.
#9 Stay Hot	He has run into Gold Phoenix in a couple recent starts, so the overall form fits pretty well here. Baseline stuff keeps him in the frame again.
Race Summary	Think there are a few ways you can go in here, but Sumter impressed with a softer crew last out and has occasionally hinted at being a bit classier than that. Today's the day? Two deep with Almendares for me.

Del Mar - Race #7

#4 Just Aloof	She needs a step forward while rising to try a decent group, but her debut score was pretty solid and might set her up for something sharp enough to play here.
#5 La Ville Lumiere	Dropper has faced some tough customers in her last few starts, and her baseline stuff might be among the best in here. Think she's right there today.
#11 Cee Drew	Not sure she's up to win this, but I liked her debut run and think she'll get the two-turn trip here. Spying run might keep her in the right spot to share.
Race Summary	No mention yet of a couple horses I've really liked in this space and think are competitive again here -- #8 Yours Sincerely and #9 Hypergamy. Shows the depth of this race and the number of ways I think you can go. Trust your gut and you won't get much an argument from me on most of these.

Del Mar - Race #9

#3 Test Score	Liked the way he did it as the chalk last out when cruising from off the splits in that small group. Seems like the one again.
#9 Tom's Magic	The only bad race on his page came behind the top choice, but he went on to take advantage of some Ontario-bred spots this summer and seems like the main danger.
#2 Friendly Confines	He'll get a class test today, but he has been pretty honest against more minor stakes types and should be in a great spot turning for home -- from there it's just a question of outkicking some classier friends.
Race Summary	Test Score and Tom's Magic feel like a tough top pair to get past, but I do think you can make a case for Friendly Confines from a great tracking spot.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:13 PM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1

#7 GOPHERS AXE (4-1)	Second on speed-favoring track, third to smashing debut winner at Hawthorne.
#8 SPUN TO PERFECTION (3-1)	Owns top two speed figs going a route of ground on conventional dirt.
#2 IT’S JUST A GAME (7-2	Stuck in ‘third’ gear at Gulfstream, late kick should be well-suited by pace.
Race Summary	GOPHERS AXE was no match for the 8-5 winner going a route of ground two back on a day when speed dominated at Hawthorne. He was made favorite again but finished third behind a runaway 7-to-2 first-time starter at 6F. Give him another chance to rebound in this spot. Bet to win and place and play 7-2 and 7-8 exactas.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3

#2 GALLANT KNIGHT (5-2)	Carried speed to two wins with blinkers on, can do it again in here.
#1 DAVID’S SONGS (8-1)	Met recent $20k winner when last seen in June, works say ‘all set.’
#8 MR. SWEETS (9-5)	Piled up the checks with improving speed figures at Prairie Meadows.
Race Summary	GALLANT KNIGHT led clear at the stretch call in three of his last five sprints, winning twice at Gulfstream. He should be in the lead role again but will have to carry his speed an extra half-furlong. Bet to win and place and play a 1, 2/1, 2, 8/ALL trifecta.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #5

#2 PACIFIC STANDARD (9-2)	Exited key Keeneland sprint, factored for 6F in route at Churchill.
#4 MAXIMUS CAT (9-5)	Led to stretch in last four starts at 2-1 or less, held second three times.
#7 RICKIE’S KIN (12-1)	Parx invader improved with Lasix two starts ago, had excuse in latest.
Race Summary	PACIFIC STANDARD stalked the pace 4-wide on the turn, rallied wider in the stretch and finished second to the rail-running winner at Keeneland two back. He finished ahead of two follow-up winners and a runner-up with average 65 Beyers in their next start. He raced up-close for 6F in a follow-up route race at Churchill Downs dominated by closers. Bet to win and place and play a 2-4 exacta box.

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:14 PM

Al Cimaglia: Closing Night Hoosier Park Early Pick 4 Analysis | Saturday, November 29, 2025

by Al Cimaglia

This is closing night at Hoosier Park so all pools will be paid out on the 15-race card. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 has a $4,383 carryover, that leads to a $20,000 guaranteed pool with a 12% takeout. It starts in race 6, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6 (7:25 PM EDT)

1-TL Thunder Bolt (7-1)-The Erv Miller entry faces better but the entire field steps up and the 3-year-old will need to beat some older foes. Fits with this crew and Atlee Bender should be racing with the leaders throughout.
3-Aye Aye Capt Russ (5-1)-This is another 3-year-old that shouldn't blush at the competition. Rolled home in 54.2 to cash a 2nd place check on a sloppy track in last. Kevin Lambright has options with this post draw and could be there at the wire with a smooth trip.
5-Howard Hughes N (3/2)-The morning line chalk has won 7 of 28 this year and could get a good trip with this post draw. Should be racing at the top of the stack and if let alone should take a picture, but not sure he will get that trip.

Race 7 (7:48 PM EDT)

1-Rosarito Beach N (4-1)-Raced evenly after dropping in 4th after leaving from post 8. One-move type probably needs to be in front around the last turn or close to the leader to take a picture. Has a good chance to get that journey with this post draw.
5-Covert (6-1)-Comes off what appeared to be a dull effort but being paced compromised with 59.1 opening half was an issue. Starts from a choice post and should relish the company. Can finish off the mile and could get a close up seat off the gate.

Race 8 (8:11 PM EDT)

4-Alwaystellthetruth (9/2)-Had been idle since mid-August and raced well coming off the bench to cash a 2nd place check. Should be a main player and will look for an even better performance after a needed start.
6-Henry The Horse (5/2)-Has been up and down the condition ladder and recent form is good. Kyle Wilfong should be out and rolling and the beaten chalk could make amends. Meets a new group tonight and that could making a winning difference.

Race 9 (8:34 PM EDT)

4-At Any Cost (7-1)-The Trent Stohler pupil ships in from Mea and does good work at HoP (14-3-1-3). Faces some older foes but the price is right to take a swing. Will look for an aggressive steer and with the right trip should be in the hunt at wire.
8-Bro Hug (9-1)-Will close it out with a 4-year-old who is 0-8 at HoP. Will use and fade the program chalk #7 who is even money in the program. The Bob Johnson trainee showed some life in last with a 56.2 back half and will look to close the season out with a big price.

$1 Early Pick 4

1,3,5/1,5/4,6/4,8
Total Bet=$24

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:15 PM

Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Arkansas +4 over Missouri

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:15 PM

Free play from Totals4U

Late Saturday's Free Selection: UNLV/Nevada under 53

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:15 PM

Free play from #1 Sports

Late Saturday's Free Play: Tulane Green Wave - 30

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:16 PM

Free play from Big Mike's Sports Network

SATURDAY, November 29, 2025

FREE PLAY

CFB
425. Fresno St -3.5 (7:30 PT / 10:30 ET)

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:16 PM

Free play from Hawkeye Sports

Late Saturday's Free Pick: Denver Nuggets - 3

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:16 PM

Free play from The Last Call

Saturday's Late Free Play: (510) Milwaukee Bucks - 11

**ConleyPicks** · 11-29-2025, 12:17 PM

Free play from High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Late Saturday: Akron Zips - 13 (CBB)