Wednesday 12/3/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs

Evangeline Downs - Race 4	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)
Optional Claiming $15,000 • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $12,500 • Post: 6:50P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * CINCO DOS ADIOS TEE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. JRS TOASTED CARTEL: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position ne xt to it gets out of the gate fast. EAGLE CREEK FALLS: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. ALCALA PERRY: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. YODA: Horse ranks in the top three i n TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	CINCO DOS ADIOS TEE	2/1	5/1
9	JRS TOASTED CARTEL	15/1	6/1
10	EAGLE CREEK FALLS	8/1	8/1
6	ALCALA PERRY	20/1	8/1
7	YODA	4/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	CINCO DOS ADIOS TEE	1	2/1	Average	91	87	5.2	0.0	0.0
2	SHEZA BELL PERRY	2	15/1	Fast	89	75	2.2	0.0	0.0
3	FAVORITE LOVE SONG	3	20/1	Average	76	67	4.5	0.0	0.0
4	DESTINYCHILD	4	3/1	Average	87	82	5.4	0.0	0.0
5	AVIONCITO	5	10/1	Average	79	77	4.0	0.0	0.0
6	ALCALA PERRY	6	20/1	Average	91	82	4.4	0.0	0.0
7	YODA	7	4/1	Average	87	81	5.1	0.0	0.0
8	JL THE GREAT BAMBINO	8	12/1	Average	84	74	4.7	0.0	0.0
9	JRS TOASTED CARTEL	9	15/1	Fast	84	86	2.5	0.0	0.0
10	EAGLE CREEK FALLS	10	8/1	Average	84	85	0.0	0.0	0.0

[ConleyPicks]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise

Turf Paradise - Race 3	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 3-4) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Trial • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 69 • Purse: $8,800 • Post: 2:07P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR QUARTER HORSE TWO YEAR OLD CERTIFIED ARIZONA BRED OR BY ONE OF THE NOMINATED STALLIONS WHICH REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE TRIALS. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. (CONTACT AQRA FOR SUBSCRIPTION DATES AND FEES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * HEART ON A RUN: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Spe ed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. STELLAAA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
5	HEART ON A RUN	2/1	5/2
7	STELLAAA	4/1	7/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	ONE APOLITICAL QUEEN	1	5/1	Average	52	31	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	IMM GOIN GOIN GONE	2	10/1	Slow	69	56	8.8	0.0	0.0
3	CARTELS MOST WANTED	3	6/1	Average	64	42	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	JESS ICON	4	5/1	Slow	62	57	9.2	0.0	0.0
5	HEART ON A RUN	5	2/1	Fast	82	74	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	BD ROYAL ANGEL	6	20/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	STELLAAA	7	4/1	Average	78	76	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: P CASINO LADY CARTEL (12/1) [Jockey: Nunnally Blake - Trainer: Pinedo Jesse], A FANCY DASHN CORONA (10/1) [Jockey: Belloc Jr Joseph - Trainer: Olivas-Valenzuela J E].

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:11pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,400 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#2 MATTHEW'S PATRIOT (ML=5/2)
#3 CONDEMNATION (ML=8/1)
#4 PARTY POOPER (ML=10/1)


MATTHEW'S PATRIOT - Ran a lackluster race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour last time out. Racing on a fast track puts this gelding at the top of my contenders roll call. This jockey/handler duo has been producing a very positive ROI, right at +158. CONDEMNATION - I think this gelding could run back to his winning race from June 25th, when he won a $7,500 Claiming race, a higher class than today's race. Entered a $10,000 Claiming race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour last time around the track and raced on a sloppy track finishing seventh. Have to give a better effort in this event. PARTY POOPER - I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run his best in the 3rd or 4th start back. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where he finished in his last race (fourth). Should rebound in today's race, with some pretty good odds. This animal didn't run well on a track listed as good in his last race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. You may want to overlook that performance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 MO DONT NO (ML=4/5),

MO DONT NO - Has tasted defeat as the favorite in back to back races. A repeat is probably in store. Won't be easy for this horse to beat this field off of that last speed fig. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the vulnerable competitors list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 MATTHEW'S PATRIOT to win if you can get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turfway Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $38400 Class Rating: 85

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 3 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $14,000 1 LB.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 HONEY HAULER 6/1
# 6 AADYA 20/1
# 8 BELLA CRUELLA 6/1

HONEY HAULER should be supported as the bet in here. Has a solid shot in this race if you like back class. If you examine closely, this horse has some longshot potential. BELLA CRUELLA - Ought to go to the front end and should never look back. Could beat this group of horses in this race given the 72 speed figure put up in her last outing.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


Tampa Bay Downs - Race #9 - Post: 4:30pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating:

#12 BOBBY BOB (ML=6/1)
#6 CENTERFOLD GUY (ML=20/1)


BOBBY BOB - This gelding should be in tip-top shape, this far into his form cycle. Another way to evaluate class is earnings per race. This thoroughbred has the topmost in the field. I think he'll be close at the finish line. CENTERFOLD GUY - All systems look good for this gelding. Last workout, 2nd fastest of the day, shows he's fit and ready. When the real running starts, this gelding should be flying down the lane. Finished out of the money last out at Gulfstream Park, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 20/1 makes me think he's got a chance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 LOVE HATE (ML=3/1), #11 MY PAL MAX (ML=7/2), #10 TROPHY COLLECTOR (ML=9/2),

LOVE HATE - I'd like to see more preferred recent efforts with oddsmaker's morning line of 3/1. This gelding notched a speed figure in his last clash which likely isn't good enough in today's race. MY PAL MAX - This steed gave a less than rousing performance last time finishing sixth. Don't see any chance of improvement in today's race. The Brain cautions me to stay away from thoroughbreds in short distance races that haven't finished in the money in sprint affairs of late. This gelding earned a rating in his last affair which likely isn't good enough in today's event. TROPHY COLLECTOR - Just cannot play this racer. Didn't show me anything positive last out or on May 29th.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #12 BOBBY BOB on the win end if we get at least 9/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	Skip

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $39000 Class Rating: 84

FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 BOOZEINTHEBLENDER 10/1
# 2 GUAPO 15/1
# 7 SHIP THE MONEY 12/1

BOOZEINTHEBLENDER looks very good to best this field particularly if the morning line of 10/1 holds. Will probably be one of the early speedsters of the group going into the halfway point of the race. Make a note that this one runs with second time Lasix today. He has a good opportunity for this event as trainer, Williams, has very strong win rate with horses going this distance. GUAPO - Must be given a shot given the class of races run recently. Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. SHIP THE MONEY - Has to be carefully examined - I like the numbers from the last race.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Dayton Raceway

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 12
1	1	LETSGOTOPARIS	9/5	Smith, Tyler - 14	477.85
3	3	STUD MUFFIN T	8/5	Smith, Trevor - 11	469.99
5	5	ILLEGALLY FUNDED	10/1	Kauffman, Kayne - 7	459.60
9	9	VOLSTARITA	8/1	Ebersole, Luke - 1	458.93
6	6	CAVIART GLORY	12/1	Sonsteby, Philip Scott - 3	441.28
2	2	KING FURY	20/1	Tetrick, Trace - 6	427.13
8	8	DAME ON	10/1	Miller, David - 11	425.41
7	7	JURASSIC JUSTICE	20/1	Lowe, Michael - 4	423.56
4	4	DEMARARA HANOVER	20/1	Widger, Sam - 11	407.07

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 13 - Post: 4:45 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$10000 - CD 2-6YO F& M WINNERS OF 1 BUT NOT MORE THAN 3 EXT PM`S OR $20,000 LIFE

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 6 ICEY SEASIDE 8/5
# 3 LASTCHANCEFORLOVE 7/5
# 5 STARLITWHATAMEMORY 8/1

If you want a nice play in this race, feast your eyes on ICEY SEASIDE. Have a vibe this one might take in this contest. Many smart handicappers know speed is is such an important factor. This standardbred has credentials with a 73 average figure. The consortium noted a strong race out of this interesting entrant last time. Looking for a repeat effort of that to score. LASTCHANCEFORLOVE - If effort in the last race is any indicator, this harness racer will have a very nice shot in this one. High last race speed rating. Merriman will be looking to take the whole enchilada for this race, has been real tough these days. Win percentage this last month is a sparkling 25. STARLITWHATAMEMORY - With one of the most solid drivers in terms of crossing the wire first, don't count this filly out of the gathering.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Post: 12:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$6100 - NW $625 PS L5 OR PS IN 2025 AE: NW 7 PM LT AE:$10000 CLM W/A K DIBENEDETTO 1 OVER 6. LINE

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 1 VEL TRUST IN TIME 5/2
# 6 SAUVIGNON BLUECHIP 7/2
# 3 SHUFFLE UP HANOVER 3/1

After thorough analysis by the handicapping group, VEL TRUST IN TIME comes out as the top pick. Could surprise us at a nice price. Don't leave out. This affair may be controlled by this gelding. Just one look at the avgerage speed figure will confirm that. Quite possibly the class of the race with an average rating of 84. A nice selection. SAUVIGNON BLUECHIP - It's risky to consider solely based on class, but this gelding has among the best class rankings of the group. That 91 TrackMaster Speed Rating clocked in the most recent race puts this contender in the mix for this one. SHUFFLE UP HANOVER - Could best this field, just look at the speed rating - 76 - from his most recent performance.

[ConleyPicks]

Handicapped by TrackMaster Greg at Northfield Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 4
2	2	RICH GIRL	6/1	Noble, Dan - 29	431.28
3	3	COUNT ON KENNA	6/1	Ciocca, John Jr - 9	421.01
5	5	BLUEBERRY POPTART	5/2	Lems, Chris - 14	420.28
1	1	SPEED OF AN ANGEL	7/2	Miller, Emanuel - 11	407.30
8	8	GREATLAKES	9/1	Rhoades, Braiden - 9	385.33
4	4	MAE KNOWS IT ALL	12/1	Angus, Tyler - 8	382.58
6	6	QUALITY KID	8/1	Mann, William - 13	365.10
9	9	CAPELLA STAR	12/1	Miller, Lavern - 5	355.16
7	7	JOHN'S BABY FILLY	15/1	Sugg, Kurt - 12	354.56

[ConleyPicks]

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Wednesday, December 3, 2025

by Xpressbet

SCHEDULE NOTE
Turfway Park | opening night | first post 5:55 pm ET
Remington Park | adds Wednesdays in December | first post 7:00 pm ET

NOTABLE CARRYOVERS
Jackpot Pick 5 | $31,980 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:05 pm ET
Jackpot Pick 6 | $41,691 | Turf Paradise | begins Race 4 | 4:43 pm ET
Jackpot Pick 6 | $45,259 | Charles Town | begins Race 3 | 7:57 pm ET

LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIX
Tampa Bay Downs | Race 5 | 2:30 pm ET
Turfway Park | Race 4 | 7:25 pm ET
Remington Park | Race 9 | 10:44 pm ET

TRAINERS TO WATCH
Allen Ray Landry | Delta Downs | 3 of 4 entries 3-1 or less odds

DID YOU SEE?
Yesterday | Mahoning Valley | Race 8 | nation’s highest-paying trifecta ($1,617) and superfecta ($10,317)

[ConleyPicks]

Scott Shapiro: Turfway Park Opening Night Picks | Wednesday, December 3, 2025

by Scott Shapiro

The calendar has turned to December and the racing on the Kentucky circuit has shifted north to Florence. This can mean only one thing. It is time for the Holiday Meeting at Turfway Park. Full field sizes, Pick 3s that can pay what Pick 4s do at many tracks, and a challenging analytical puzzle each night headline the first of two meets this fall/winter in Northern Kentucky. Here are a few horses I like a bit on Opening Night at Turfway Park!


Race 4:

My first play of the meet comes in this open $8k claimer at 1 1/16-miles where the pace should be honest at the very least. I am hopeful that sets things up for the late run of longshot #5 Juanita’s Express. The son of
Fed Biz has been given a couple of months to freshen up by trainer Joe Deegan after a pair of races on the turf this summer at Belterra Park. The 7YO still has all his parts, but has absolutely no early speed, so he will need a setup, but he has run some of his best races over the all-weather at Turfway Park and Deegan clearly points to this meet. In fact, he has won at a 17% clip over a 127-race sample size for a strong $2.30 ROI.
These are the types of horses I want to take a swing with early on in the meet as more horses get recent races over the configuration.

Play: #5 Juanita’s Express (12-1 ML)


Race 7:

Trainer Eoin Harty is coming off a good year himself at Turfway Park. The veteran conditioner won with 8 of 37 starters for a $1.99 ROI and sends out second-time starter #3 Queenstown in this one-mile MSW event for 2YO fillies. The Street Sense filly exits a much tougher race at Churchill Downs on Halloween where she broke well, stalked early, and tired late. The Godolphin homebred meets a much softer bunch than she encountered in Louisville and should relish the added ground. Hopefully, she breaks well again under jockey Vincent Cheminaud, finds a favorable forward position along the inside, and has too much class for this group.

Play: #3 Queenstown (5-1 ML)


Race 8:

The Opening Night feature is a first-level allowance event for fillies and mares at 6.5-furlongs and is led by a pair of Wesley Ward trainees, including 5-2-ML favorite #3 Cut to the Chase. The Complexity filly ran fast in her maiden breaking performance over the dirt at Keeneland in mid-October, but I am not sure how much that helps her here. She should make the lead, but the extra half-furlong and the surface switch just make her a tough horse for me to back at her likely off odds. I prefer #8 Saphira. The Resolute Racing filly did not beat much on debut at Horseshoe Indianapolis, but did it well. I can forgive her first start versus winners going 5-furlongs on the grass at Churchill Downs and think she probably got a lot out of the off the board finish. The surface switch is a question mark for this daughter of American Pharoah as well, but she should be a much bigger price than Cut to the Chase and should relish the added ground. Julien Leparoux takes the call for the Riley Mott trainee
.
Play: #8 Saphira (8-1 ML)

[ConleyPicks]

Jeremy Plonk: Tampa Bay Downs Spot Plays | Wednesday, December 3, 2025

by Jeremy Plonk

If you’re nursing a sore back from shoveling snow like I am, tuning into Tampa Bay Downs on Wednesday will be a sight for chilled eyes. Sunny and 75 degrees are in the forecast. I’ve identified a couple mid-range prices for lesser-known, but red-hot trainers early in the Tampa Bay Downs meeting.


Tampa Bay Downs | Race 4 | 2:00 pm ET

#5 Float On (5-1 morning line odds) was a good second here last January in his only local appearance. Trainer Michelle Castillo took over training this summer and note that her runners from PA have come out firing at Tampa so far: She has a 7-2 winner, 9-1 runner-up, 39-1 third-place finisher and 10-1 fourth-place finisher from her 4 starts to open the meeting. Win-place bet #5.

Tampa Bay Downs | Race 8 | 4:00 pm ET

#7 Jades Jay (6-1 morning line odds) looks to keep a hot start to the Tampa meet going for trainer Darien Rodriguez. His first 3 starters included $11 and $16 winners along with a third-place effort. Jades Jay has won over the Tampa track and makes his first appearance since moving to this high-percentage barn, which hits 31% locally with jockey Samuel Marin. Win-place bet #7.

[ConleyPicks]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #5

#2 Bold Sally	Not sure we're getting 15/1 with a couple of bullet works to her credit, especially in a spot where there isn't any serious confirmed pace. Drills suggest she might be it.
#4 Jac's Cocoabella	The sprint form is really honest, but I worry a bit about the potential race shape today and whether she'll have enough to get past them. Obvious player in a soft race.
#6 Forever Flowing	The two-back try would probably be good enough to stay in the picture here, and she finished in front of Jac' that day, so there are least competitive running lines. That said, what kind of price is she going to offer? Not impossible -- but I'm not sold.
Race Summary	Bold Sally is a fresh face in a race where I'm not really sure who you're supposed to trust. Get a look at her on the tote and track, but she's working like she might be ready enough to roll.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#3 Mission Control	Not sure the price is going to be much here, but I think he's supposed to handle this bunch. He draws outside of the other pace player and has enough of a pressing/rating gear to press and finish if needed. Lots to like.
#6 Big Truck	The route form is tough to trust, but the baseline efforts keep him in the mix from what might be an OK tracking trip. He fits, I'm just not that enthused.
#1 Blue Nomore	He wouldn't be a total surprised, but his form suggests he's a lot more likely to finish up just a bit too late and settle for something underneath again. I'd think about it if you gave me something north of the 4/1 ML offering.
Race Summary	Mission Control should get the run of the race right up top, and I think he's going to hit hard. Blue Nomore might be the play if he drifts up.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#4 Drill City	Nothing to write home about on paper in the last couple, but I think he might get an OK finishing run while stretching out in a race where that might be the play. Some longshot appeal.
#6 Bigpiclittlepic	Reliable type was super sharp last time out, and I like how his form picked up a bit when he got back over the local footing. Wouldn't argue with you.
#8 Willie T	He gets tested for class here but has been in pretty solid form in the last pair. Stretchout player should be up on the splits and might be able to stay the trip.
Race Summary	Drill City moves around two turns with some occasional finishing sprint form, and there might be just enough pace and pressing speed in here to give him a chance to clunk up late.