Thursday 12/4/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369808

    #1

    Thursday 12/4/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

    Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369808

    #2
    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
    PURCHASE
    Camarero - Race 6 Exacta / Quiniela / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double 6-7
    Claiming $4,000 • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 60 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 4:40P
    FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 4 ALLOWED 3 LBS. 4# A DEBTS ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
    Contenders Race Analysis
    P# Horse Morn
    Line
    Accept
    Odds
    Race Type: Lone Stalker. LAS COLINAS is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SHARON'S HOPE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SNOWZILLA: Horse ranks in the top three in Tra ckMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SET THE PACE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distan ce/surface. LAS COLINAS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
    2 SHARON'S HOPE 4/1 5/1
    3 SNOWZILLA 2/1 5/1
    1 SET THE PACE 3/1 7/1
    8 LAS COLINAS 5/1 7/1

    P# Horse (In Running Style Order) Post Morn
    Line
    Running Style Good
    Class
    Good
    Speed
    Early Figure Finish Figure Platinum
    Figure
    3 SNOWZILLA 3 2/1 Front-runner 62 60 64.6 50.6 46.1
    1 SET THE PACE 1 3/1 Front-runner 57 50 58.2 50.0 46.0
    8 LAS COLINAS 8 5/1 Alternator/Stalker 61 41 58.0 48.4 39.4
    2 SHARON'S HOPE 2 4/1 Trailer 65 52 56.6 56.8 52.3
    9 STYLISH KITTEN 9 10/1 Trailer 58 51 43.6 40.4 30.4
    5 GOTHIC MAJESTIC 5 15/1 Alternator/Non-contender 49 47 55.8 24.4 8.9
    7 KEONI'S GIRL 7 15/1 Alternator/Non-contender 34 32 46.6 28.0 14.0
    6 SHE HAS CLASS 6 10/1 Alternator/Non-contender 59 56 45.6 30.3 20.8
    4 SILVER FINISH 4 15/1 Alternator/Non-contender 36 33 31.1 20.0 3.0
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 369808

      #3
      F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs
      PURCHASE
      Delta Downs - Race 1 Exacta/Trifecta (.50 min.)/Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races 1-2)($1 min.)/Pick 3 (Races 1-3)/Pick 5 (Races 1-5)
      Allowance • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 81 • Purse: $44,000 • Post: 4:45P
      (INCLUDES UP TO $1,400 LTBASBF) FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 4 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).
      Contenders Race Analysis
      P# Horse Morn
      Line
      Accept
      Odds
      Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * CAJUN CATTITUDE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf ) is at least 50. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. DOLLY'S GUITAR: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. B ASILE: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. HOPESHECANRUN: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and th is is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
      11 CAJUN CATTITUDE 2/1 9/2
      2 DOLLY'S GUITAR 7/2 6/1
      1 BASILE 6/1 8/1
      4 HOPESHECANRUN 5/1 8/1

      P# Horse (In Running Style Order) Post Morn
      Line
      Running Style Good
      Class
      Good
      Speed
      Early Figure Finish Figure Platinum
      Figure
      4 HOPESHECANRUN 4 5/1 Front-runner 79 77 82.4 62.2 51.2
      5 WELCOMETOMYHOLIDAY 5 10/1 Front-runner 67 73 76.4 58.4 43.9
      1 BASILE 1 6/1 Front-runner 76 72 75.0 70.0 61.5
      9 FIJI'S DEAL 9 15/1 Front-runner 71 63 70.1 42.4 28.9
      10 WICKEDLY ROYAL 10 6/1 Front-runner 55 74 54.0 70.2 62.7
      11 CAJUN CATTITUDE 11 2/1 Stalker 81 89 73.4 73.8 67.3
      8 WELCOMETOHAZEVILLE 8 6/1 Stalker 67 72 68.2 59.6 49.6
      2 DOLLY'S GUITAR 2 7/2 Stalker 83 79 59.6 72.0 63.0
      6 PAYTON'S INDIAN 6 12/1 Stalker 74 74 48.2 62.6 42.6
      3 TWO JET 3 15/1 Alternator/Stalker 78 56 41.8 63.4 49.9
      7 WELL ACCUSTOMED 7 5/1 Alternator/Non-contender 78 71 37.2 59.6 45.1
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 369808

        #4

        Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

        PURCHASE
        Always check program numbers.
        Odds shown are morning line odds.



        Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 550y on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 82

        QUARTER HORSE 550Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2025 OR CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.
        RECOMMENDED CHOICES
        # 7 SANDSTONE 7/2
        # 4 SHEZA FAST PILOTO 5/2
        # 6 LOUIE B QUICK 3/1
        SANDSTONE is my choice. Should be considered based on the quite good speed figure earned in the last contest. Has been running in the most competitive company of the field lately. SHEZA FAST PILOTO - Will most likely go to the front end and could never look back. With a solid 82 Equibase speed fig last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this competition. LOUIE B QUICK - Overall the speed figures of this pony look respectable in this contest. Bettors using horses with this jockey and trainer combo have done strongly lately.
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 369808

          #5

          Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

          PURCHASE





          Aqueduct - Race #8 - Post: 4:04pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $43,000 Class Rating: 89

          Rating:

          #7 AERO STAR (ML=8/1)
          #3 JUNGLE GLOW (ML=15/1)
          #2 SMILENSAYCHEESE (ML=6/1)
          #11 FRIZZANTE (ML=7/2)


          AERO STAR - Trainer, Potts, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a good race is a good sign. Finished off the board last out at Aqueduct, but was within 5 lengths of the winner. Opening at 8/1 makes me think he's got a chance. JUNGLE GLOW - Really think this race horse is going to be right there at the wire. SMILENSAYCHEESE - This horse is number one in earnings per race. He looks strong in today's race. Past performance data show this pony with 3 improving speed ratings. Lezcano should be on a live one in this event. FRIZZANTE - This jock and handler's equines have been generating a profitable ROI. This gelding is in first-rate condition right now. Ended up second last time around the track and comes back quickly.

          Vulnerable Contenders: #9 REGISTER (ML=3/1), #10 FREE DANCE (ML=8/1),

          REGISTER - A pattern of deteriorating speed ratings 84/75/61 for this racer. FREE DANCE - Don't figure that this steed is worth 8/1 in this event.
          STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #7 AERO STAR to win if we can get at least 9/2 odds
          EXACTA WAGERS: Box [2,3,7]
          TRIFECTA WAGERS: Skip
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 369808

            #6

            Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

            PURCHASE





            Charles Town - Race #6 - Post: 9:21pm - SO - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,700 Class Rating: 95

            Rating:

            #4 GRAPNEL (ML=3/1)
            #1 CLAW (ML=6/1)


            GRAPNEL - Almodovar and Comi have had fabulous success together over the last twelve months. Based on this gelding's recent efforts, he should be aided by this shorter trip. Comi moves this horse here to Charles Town from Remington Park. Looking at the horse's PPs, he has shown the ability to win on different racing tracks. This animal probably isn't going to sit chilly off the pace. He should bust out of the gate and be one of the first to hit that tight turn. Watch for him in the homestretch. CLAW - Peltroche and Sandoval perform well when they combine forces. It's hard to beat a +194 ROI for a jockey and trainer. Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a solid effort on November 5th.

            Vulnerable Contenders: #3 RESTLESS (ML=9/5), #2 TALKIN PHAROAH (ML=2/1),

            RESTLESS - Hasn't been on the Charles Town oval in the last 3 weeks. Cause for some concern. Hard to bet this less than sharp equine the way he ran inconsistently last time out of the box. TALKIN PHAROAH - Could be tough for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put him on the likely underlays list.
            STRAIGHT WAGERS: Bet on #4 GRAPNEL to win if you can get at least 7/5 odds
            EXACTA WAGERS: Box [1,4]
            TRIFECTA WAGERS: None
            SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None
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            Comment

            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 369808

              #7

              Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

              PURCHASE
              Always check program numbers.
              Odds shown are morning line odds.



              Race 9 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $33700 Class Rating: 50

              FOR ACCREDITED OHIO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS.
              RECOMMENDED CHOICES
              # 5 PROFESSOR NICK 5/2
              # 4 BUMPKIN 10/1
              # 3 MOBIL MISSION 12/1
              PROFESSOR NICK is the most favorable bet in this race. The speed figure of 54 from his last affair looks decent in here. The class figure of today's race is much lower than his last contest. BUMPKIN - Has to be carefully examined versus this group of animals displaying decent figs lately and an average speed rating of 50 under similar conditions. With Chavez aboard him, this gelding ought to be able to break out sharply in here. MOBIL MISSION - Well above average win clip at this distance/surface.
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 369808

                #8
                Jeremy Plonk: Remsen, Inaugural & MD Juvenile Stakes Picks |


                December 4, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

                The attention steeped on soon-to-be sophomores picks up business Saturday when the Remsen Stakes headlines a trio of 2-year-old stakes. Aqueduct’s $250,000 Grade 2 Remsen at a mile and one-eighth is joined on the national docket by the $125,000 Maryland Juvenile Championship over 7 furlongs at Laurel and the $125,000 Inaugural Stakes at 6 furlongs in the first leg of the Tampa Bay Derby series.

                Kentucky Derby trail implications figure to be more prevalent in the Remsen, but we’ll begin our look in post-time order.

                Tampa Bay Downs: Race 2 | $125,000 Inaugural Stakes | 1:00 pm ET

                The Gulf Coast trail includes the Inaugural at 6 furlongs, the Pasco at 7 furlongs and the Sam. F. Davis and Tampa Bay Derby both at 1-1/16 miles. Seven colts/geldings will contest the series opener, including stakes-placed THUNDER CHUCK for Jorge Delgado and SUPER KICK for Eoin Harty. But it’s romping Gulfstream debut winner SOLITUDE DUDE for Saffie Joseph Jr. who will be a standout on the toteboard. The $300,000 2-year-old purchase by Yauponi is bred to sprint on both sides and appears well-placed for the natural rise in class. Joseph adds second-start Gulfstream maiden graduate LANGVAD.

                Six of these 7 have made the lead early in sprints prior, the other has 3 times pressed from second in the early calls. Expect a strong tempo. Given that, the slight cut-back in distance for SOLITUDE DUDE as well as UNCLE CHUCK – the latter from the 6-1/2 furlong Saratoga Special and same-tripped Juvenile Sprint at Gulfstream, should prove beneficial. While THUNDER CHUCK has sprinted in all 4 starts, the Good Magic colt has as much license on pedigree as any in this field to handle the more important distances in the Tampa series down the road.

                SUPER KICK won a sales-restricted maiden sprint at Churchill in September, but failed to threaten in a 4-horse Bowman Mill at Keeneland when third. He should find at last a couple better here as well.

                The picks: 7-SOLITUDE DUDE, 3-THUNDER CHUCK, 4-SUPER KICK, 2-LANGVAD


                Laurel Park: Race 6 | $125,000 Maryland Juvenile Championship | 2:26 pm ET

                Ten juveniles in search of their first stakes glory match up in this 7-furlong sprint that starts to form the Preakness path at Laurel. That venue hosts the middle jewel in the Triple Crown this year and next during the reconstruction at Pimlico.

                The field lacks a standout in the past performances, though TARTABULL was a notable third at Saratoga to next-out stakes winner Ewing and then fifth behind eventual national stakes players Talkin and Further Ado. Trainer Chad Summers brought the $310,000 Tapit-Anna’s Bandit colt to Laurel on October 25 to break his maiden with a green rally. He’s trained well since and may be starting to figure things out. WORKER BEE has won 2 of 3 for high-percentage trainer Gary Capuano and will be asked to tote 8 additional pounds from his prior score just 15 days ago. He figures to be in the mix every step of the way in a race that has a surprising lack of early pace for a 7-furlong juvenile stakes. Dominant maiden claiming debut winner BIKER BALEY may be the only other runner with designs on the front. Both deserve a look.

                CODE OF SILENCE is a lukewarm 7-2 morning line favorite off a Nov. 16 maiden breaker in his fourth start for Tim Keefe. He has given himself a lot to do with a series of slow or poor starts, but perhaps the blinkers on last time helped focus his abilities in the late going.

                The picks: 2-WORKER BEE, 8-TARTABULL, 4-BIKER BALEY, 5-CODE OF SILENCE


                Aqueduct: Race 9 | $250,000 Grade 2 Remsen | 3:08 pm ET

                The rematch between PALADIN and RENEGADE, who disputed an Oct. 17 maiden mile at Aqueduct, will be front and center in this field of 12. Since that race, in which I thought RENEGADE ran best, its PALADIN who has posted 5 workouts to a mere 2 for RENEGADE. That said, it’s quite likely Paladin will be fitter for the stretchout in distance and best his rival Saturday over a mile and one-eighth. That PALADIN gets to easily save ground in post 2 with a short run to the first turn only helps in his head-to-head with RENEGADE, who starts from the 9-hole. PALADIN trainer Chad Brown was runner-up here a few years back with fellow Gun Runner colt Sierra Leone.

                Remsen history offers no pause for these 1-turn milers stepping up in class. In the last dozen years, 11 Remsen winners exited 1-turn races. And note the last 4 winners of this race stepped up from maiden or allowance races.

                Todd Pletcher has won the Remsen 3 times (2005, 2012, 2021), but is 1 for his last 14 in this race. He’ll send out RENEGADE as well as the Nov. 9 Aqueduct maiden special weight 1-2 finishers COURTING and GRITTINESS. You want to love COURTING, a $5 million full-brother to star racemare Clairiere, but it’s notable that he was ridden out in that 1-turn mile victory against just 3 rivals at 1-10 odds. His back-to-back 94 BRIS late pace figures are very solid against this crew, but pale to the 104 and 100 that RENEGADE and PALADIN earned, respectively, over the same trip.

                The wide draw for TALKIN in post 11 makes his task significantly more difficult. His Champagne Stakes runner-up to the fleet Napoleon Solo wasn’t visually overwhelming on his ledger, but we saw trainer Danny Gargan win the 2022 and 2023 Remsen editions with sons of Good Magic like this.

                The picks: 2-PALADIN, 6-COURTING, 9-RENEGADE, 11-TALKIN

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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 369808

                  #9
                  Jeremy Plonk: Gulfstream Bet $100, Get $10 Thursday Plays


                  December 3, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

                  The Winter Winner-Land promotion debuts Thursday with Gulfstream Park’s card. Enjoy a Bet $100, Get $10 offer with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet between Dec. 4-23 on Tuesdays and Thursdays for select tracks. Here’s how I’ll attack the Gulfstream lineup Thursday.


                  Gulfstream Park | Race 1 | 12:20 pm ET

                  #5 Striking Finale (20-1 morning line odds) didn’t show much of anything in 2 starts so far, a turf sprint and a dirt sprint. But trainer Mike Trombetta conditioned the dam, Souper Striking, to the Hilltop Stakes win at Pimlico around 2 turns on turf (similar to this trip) and I like that they’re protecting this home-bred in an optional claimer. Trombetta didn’t do much early in last year’s Championship Meet, but in 2022 and 2023 popped $26, $32 and $98 winners for a wild $3.00 ROI for every $1 bet during those 36 December starts. Win-place bet #5.

                  Gulfstream Park | Race 5 | 2:24 pm ET

                  #5 Drink N Wink (5-1 morning line odds) gets a big rider upgrade to Tyler Gaffalione and it’s notable trainer Fernando Abreu is a 22% winner in December at Gulfstream Park from 2022-’24 at the start of the Championship Meetings. Those numbers jump in December claiming races to 35% wins, 45% in the exacta and a $1.45 ROI for every $1 bet from 20 starters. Seems like go time for a horse with consistent form. Win bet #5. Exacta box with #6 Tall Story for a Joe Orseno barn that’s been highly profitable to back early in recent Championship Meets as well.

                  Gulfstream Park | Race 7 | 3:24 pm ET

                  #5 Miguel’s Belle (6-1 morning line odds) should fit very nicely at this 5-1/2 furlong distance. He’s won his last 2 bids over the dash trip on dirt, October 25 and August 2. A troubled trip last time out soils his form and likely helps expand our price a bit. Trainer Amador Sanchez reclaimed the runner whom he won with 2 starts back and note this barn hits 23% wins and 41% in the exacta at this 5-1/2 furlong dash distance the past 4 years at Gulfstream. Win-place bet #5. Daily Double 5-1 to Itza Lock in Race 8. Pick Three 5-1-5 ending with Bibi Dahl in Race 9. We’ll try to use this nice price to a couple of highly logical favorites to close the card.


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