Service Plays Sunday 12/7/25

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE ESSLER

144 KAN / 143 HOU Under 42.0 Southpoint	triple-dime bet

Analysis:
As of right now, Wynn has 43 if you have access to that. I am not a fan of using that as one of our books since very few have access. BetRivers (same feeling) has 42.5. It's not a secret to many that the Texans have the best PPG defense in the NFL, and honestly it's not close. They've allowed just two opponents to score more than 20 points all season, once to and at Seattle (no shame) and to Jacksonville, which is the outlier. They just allowed only 19 to the Bills and 16 to (and at) Indianapolis. And it's not as if the Chiefs can't play defense. Spagnuo?lo always puts them in great position. They're 7th in points allowed themselves, and now they get to face the Texans who are lacking just one thing, an offensive line. They're 7th in red zone defense, and it only takes a time or two to hold a team to three to keep a game under. Houston is third in third down conversion defense. There shouldn't be many/any chunk plays, barring special teams. Houston is second in turnover margin, and the more they have the ball, the better. This should be a close game, with one team struggling to score 17, so I see a huge overlay/edge

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chuck Esposito

Red Rock SB director

Last week: 3-2

Season: 29-35-1

Vikings -2
Steelers +6
Colts -1?
Rams -8
Chiefs -3?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lou Finocchiaro

Last week: 3-2
Season: 31-32-2

Commanders +2
Bears +6?
Colts -1?
Bengals +5?
Texans +3?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doug Fitz

Systemplays

Last week: 3-2
Season: 27-38

Commanders +2
Packers -6?
Saints +8?
Rams -8
Eagles -2?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Kellen

Last week: 3-2
Season: 29-34-2

Dolphins -3
Falcons +7
Colts -1?
Bengals +5?
Eagles -2?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jay Kornegay

Last week: 0-5
Season: 34-29-2

Vikings -2
Steelers +6
Jaguars +1?
Packers -6?
Eagles -2?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brent Musburger

VSiN

Last week: 4-1
Season: 30-33-2

Browns -3?
Jaguars +1?
Rams -8
Texans +3?
Eagles -2?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelly Stewart

@Kellyinvegas

Last week: 2-3
Season: 33-32

Falcons +7
Packers -6?
Broncos -7?
Texans +3?
Chargers +2?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Tuley

VSiN

Last week: 3-2
Season: 28-35-2

Falcons +7
Bears +6?
Cardinals +8
Bengals +5?
Texans +3?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Raiders-Broncos betting: Sharp money moves spread, total

LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION

The Broncos have eight one-score wins this season, including a 10-7 victory over the Raiders at Denver.

The Raiders covered as 9?-point underdogs in that Nov. 6 loss, and sharp bettors are banking on them to cover as 8-point underdogs in Sunday’s rematch at Allegiant Stadium. The consensus line has dipped to 7?.

“We opened Denver 8, and someone sharp took 8, so we’re at 7?,” Boomer’s Sportsbook director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. “All the recreational business will be on the favorite. Teasers and money line parlays. No one is looking to back the Raiders right now except for a few brave soul professional players.

“Obviously, both teams are going in completely different directions.”

The Raiders (2-10) have lost six straight games and failed to cover their past three. They are on a 3-8 spread slide overall.

The betting public is all over the Broncos (10-2), who have won nine straight games and trailed in every one of them while going 5-4 ATS. At STN Sports, 90 percent of the spread bets are on Denver, and 67 percent of the tickets on the total are on the over.

“When it’s all said and done, we’ll be rooting for the Raiders,” Bogdanovich said.

Boomer’s, which offers -105 juice on NFL sides and $250 in bonus bets on your first deposit, also took sharp action on the under. The Broncos are on a 7-3 under run.

“There was a (sharp) bet on the under. We opened 41, and it went down to 40,” Bogdanovich said. “The first game they played was 10-7, and division rivals know each other so well anyway, it’s probably an auto play on the under.”

Best Bet

WagerTalk owner Kelly Stewart took the Chargers over the Raiders last week in the Review-Journal NFL Challenge, and Los Angeles covered as a 9?-point favorite in a 31-14 win.

Stewart, 33-32 ATS in the RJ Challenge, made the Broncos one of her best bets this week.

“It’s a straight fade of the Raiders. This team is riddled with injury, not only on the offensive line but in the receiving corps,” said Stewart (@kellyinvegas). “How can you back the Raiders right now? Las Vegas has lost six straight games by an average of 13.8 points. During this losing streak, the Raiders have scored an average of 12.7 points per game.

“The Broncos may only need about 17 points to cover this spread against a Raiders team that is falling apart at the seams. Given the state of the Raiders’ fan base right now, Broncos fans may turn Allegiant Stadium into a Denver home game.”

Props

Raiders quarterback Geno Smith has thrown a touchdown pass in eight of 12 games, and he’s a -225 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook to throw for a touchdown in Sunday’s game.

Smith has thrown an interception in nine games, and he’s a -157 favorite at Caesars to throw a pick.

Raiders rookie running back Ashton Jeanty pays +121 to score an anytime touchdown, and he’s +650 to be the first touchdown scorer.

Raiders tight end Brock Bowers is +180 to score a touchdown and 10-1 to score the first touchdown.

[One Pocket]

Ross Benjamin (131) Indianapolis Colts at (132) Jacksonville Jaguars


Date/Time:
Dec 7 2025 1:00 PM EST
Line Provider:
Circa
Play Rating:
5%
Odds:
-110
Play:
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.0 (-110)

These teams are headed in opposite directions with the Colts losing 3 of their last 4 and Jacksonville winning 3 of their previous 4. Both teams are now 8-4 (.667) and ties for the AFC South lead. The Jaguars are coming off back-to-back away favorite covers at Tennessee and at Arizona. As a matter of fact, Jacksonville is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 with their defense allowed just 11.0 points and 216.3 points per game. Their average margin of victory in those 3 contests came by 18.0 points per game. They'll be facing a Colts franchise which has gone 1-9 SU on the road since the start of the 2022-2023 season when facing opponents with a win percentage of between .536 to .750. The Indianapolis defense is allowing 381.6 yards per game on the road this season.

All NFL home teams playing after Game 4 with a win percentage of .636 or better that's coming off back-to-back away favorite covers in which they allowed 27 points or fewer on each occasion, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .687 or lower, resulted in those home teams going 55-1 SU (98.2%) since 1980. Since this incredible SU betting angle supports the home underdog in this matchup and takes on even more significance.

Bet the Jacksonville Jaguars as +0.0 or higher as a point-spread wager for a 5% Max Best Bet.

[citybeat]

Dec 7	Bryan Power	5%	[NFL] (141) Cincinnati Bengals at (142) Buffalo Bills Time: 1:00 PM EST	Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-108)
Analysis: 5% Buffalo (1:00 ET): This number is WAY too low. Yes, I did say last week that Cincinnati taking money against Baltimore was an overreaction to Joe Burrow coming back. And the Bengals ended up winning that game, 32-14 as a 7.5-point underdog. But that was a situation where the Ravens decided to hand the game away with five turnovers. One of those was a fumble through the end zone on what would have otherwise been a TD that put Baltimore up 14-6. It completely changed the game. A Lamar Jackson red zone INT early in the 4Q sealed the outcome. Nevertheless, I still feel Cincy is a very bad football team, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. One could try to argue that a lot of the Bengals’ stats are misleading due to being without Burrow for the vast majority of the season. But here’s what I’ll argue. Even though the Bengals won last week, there is no way Buffalo should be laying fewer points than Baltimore. This is a Bills team that is 8-4 SU and entered the week with a top five point differential in the league. They also don’t lose at home very often. Just four times during the regular season, in fact, since the start of the 2022 season. Last week, Josh Allen and company easily got by the Steelers, 26-7 as three-point favorites. The offense dominated time of possession by running the ball straight down the opposition’s throat. The defense allowed just 166 total yards. This will definitely be a tougher matchup for the Bills defense as Cincy is set to get back WR Tee Higgins from a concussion. However, it should also be an easier matchup for Allen and the offense. The Bengals went into last week ranked dead last in the league in several key defensive categories, including yards per play, yards per game, points per game and EPA allowed. The Bills’ offense ranks #1 in the league in YPP at home (6.5), not to mention TOP and plays per drive. I think we see a lot of the same success running the ball that we saw last week, especially if the Bengals are without DE Trey Hendrickson. I also expect Allen to start taking better care of the football. Teams with losing records don’t often pull B2B upsets, on the road no less, so I am laying the points. 5% Buffalo (Play to -7)

[One Pocket]

Brandon Lang
150 dimes Jags +1.5

[Zygna]

The Human Factor
TOY
Houston/Kanas City Under41

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bruce Marshall

NFL

Houston Texans +3' (+100)
Cincinnati Bengals +6 (-108)
Baltimore Ravens -5' (-115)
Jacksonville Jaguars +1' (-105)
Washington Redskins -1 (-114)