Saturday 12/13/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369829

    #1

    Saturday 12/13/25 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

    Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 369829

    #2
    Jeremy Plonk: Los Al Bet $100, Get $20 Weekend Picks


    December 11, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

    By daylight or moonlight, Los Alamitos’ mix of Thoroughbred and American Quarter Horse showcases this weekend will be in the spotlight. Closing weekend of the Thoroughbred stand includes Saturday’s Grade 2 $200,000 Los Alamitos Futurity – the race that springboarded 2025 Preakness winner Journalism to his sophomore stardom. Later that evening, the AQHA red carpet rolls out under the lights for the Grade 1 $700,000 Champion of Champions, the shortline game’s annual Who’s Who with world title implications. And to cap it off, Sunday’s Los Alamitos 2 Million Futurity will be the state’s richest AQHA race of the year.

    1/ST BET and Xpressbet players take advantage of a Bet $100, Get $20 promotion on the Saturday action from Orange County, CA. Bet at least $50 on the Los Al afternoon Thoroughbred card as well $50 or more on the evening AQHA card to earn your $20 bonus.


    Los Alamitos: $200,000 Los Alamitos Futurity | Saturday, Race 8 | Post Time 4:00 pm PT

    Trainer Bob Baffert’s 14 Los Al Futurity wins tower over the record book, but his 1 victory in the last 4 editions peeks the door open. Granted, it has taken top-class colts like Slow Down Andy, Practical Move and Journalism to derail the Baffert locomotive in this race. Baffert saddles 3 of the 6 entrants Saturday, including Breeders’ Cup Juvenile fourth-place finisher Litmus Test; the regally bred Into Mischief-Monomoy Girl colt Provenance; and two-start maiden Blacksmith, a $525K purchase who is out of a full-sister to the barn’s $3.6M sprinter Cezanne.

    After chasing expected Champion 2-Year-Old Ted Noffey in his last 2, Litmus Test should find his 2-turn experience and classy running lines enough to prove best. Juan Hernandez is regular pilot of the other Bafferts entered and takes the seat here for what’s likely good reason. This Nyquist colt doesn’t strike me as a star for the Triple Crown next spring, so these winter stakes could be his best chance at making noise. The concern is that he’s been a bit flat late in 2-turn races and the marathon stretch at Los Alamitos can be a no man’s land for a hanger.

    Doug O’Neill thwarted Baffert in the 2021 Los Al Futurity with Slow Down Andy and looks for rail-drawn Acknowledgemeplz for an encore. Expect rail speed from this son of Bucchero, who posted a fast sprint win at Santa Anita last out after a debut second in June to eventual stakes winner Desert Gate. This is probably the best recipe to beat Litmus Test – get in front of him from the start and make him prove that he wants to pass horses. I’ll make that the tepid play.

    Captivator smashed maiden optional claimers by 10-plus lengths over the Del Mar main track November 8. He’ll stretch out from 6 furlongs while making his third lifetime start. He’s by the fleet Charlatan, and will take the blinkers off after setting the tempo in the sprint ranks. If he fails to keep Acknowledgemeplz honest, that one could get bold. Longshot maiden American King rounds out the field for Ruben Gomez.

    Picks: Acknowledgemeplz, Litmus Test, Provenance, Captivator


    Los Alamitos: $700,000 Champion of Champions | Saturday, Race 8 | Post Time 9:01 pm PT

    Ten star-powered American Quarter Horses square off at the 440-yard classic distance. Runners aged 3 to 7 of both sexes make this one of the nation’s most interesting races of any breed – and the Champion of Champions rarely fails to deliver on its promise.

    Veteran Empressum leaves from the rail in what’s become a rite of annual passage. The 2022 and 2024 Champion of Champions hero was runner-up here in 2023 or would be riding a 3-race win streak in the sport’s big one. But it’s his 3-race losing streak in 2025 that invites challenges to this throne; albeit second-place finishes by a nose, head and head. It’s not like the 39: 25-10-0 performer is ready to hand it over to his younger counterparts. The Oklahoma-bred has run first or second in an unthinkable 24 straight races, last missing an exacta in the 2021 All American Derby. The only 3-time Champion of Champions winner was the great Refrigerator from 1992-’94.

    But 2-1 morning line favoritism goes to the 5-year-old Jeriko. He finished fourth in this race the past 2 years, including as the favorite a season ago. His November 16 victory in the Z. Wayne Griffin Director’s Stakes by a head over Empressum could have been the coming attractions. But that was 400 yards, and note Jeriko has won just 1 of his last 5 at 440 yards. He’ll be out in post 9, far away on the track from chief rival Empressum, which means the quality of competition around the two favorites may boost the aggression of the one most-challenged.

    Stanley Cartel in post 4 might provide the target. He’s an outstanding breaker and has run races fast enough to play with anyone, witnessed by a wire-to-wire score in the Los Al Invitational Championship when holding Empressum and Jeriko slightly at bay. His 9-for-11 career mark, all at Los Al, leaves little to critique and he’s been freshened since October 11. The X-factor here is that trainer Luke Lindsey was forced into duty in recent days when former trainer Ramiro Castillo ran afoul with track management and forced to vacate the grounds. What’s the impact on Stanley Cartel? Anyone’s guess.

    Longshot look to Hott Temptation in post 2. The 3-year-old filly breaks alongside Empressum and has made steady improvement throughout the year for high-percentage trainer Eddie D. Willis. Consider for the exotics with otherwise logical results expected.

    The picks: Empressum, Jeriko, Hott Temptation, Stanley Cartel


    Los Alamitos: $1,800,000 Los Al Two Million Futurity | Sunday

    The 400-yard final for this juvenile showcase matches the 10 fastest qualifiers from 12 trials run November 23. In addition to handicapping the form of each contender, it’s wise in stakes finals like this to consider the trials results for both placement on the card and placement on the track. Conditions often make a particular portion of the racing program faster or slower, and track bias in AQHA racing is more about the inside or outside being faster than traditional Thoroughbred racing views.

    Of the 10 fastest qualifiers, only 2 emerged from the first 4 trials, 5 from the middle 4 trials and 3 from the final 4 trials. Knowing that, give extra credit to the times put up by Hi Octane in Race 1 and Toby Sis in Race 2. In fact, those clockings stood up all evening as the second and third-fastest times overall. While Enforce was the trials’ fastest-qualifier, he did so in Race 8, part of what seemingly were the fastest conditions of the program.

    By post positions, the 10 qualifiers saw 2 from the inside 3 posts (both rail), 5 from posts 4-7 and 3 from the outside posts 8-10 (all 8). The inside runners may have done a bit more work, a feather in the cap of AJ Remember Me and Enforce.

    The $675,000 sales whopper Enforce won the Grade 1 Golden State Million Futurity in October and has steadily improved since summer. He’s a son of the star mare Remember Me Rose, the 2007 Ruidoso Derby winner and Texas Classic Derby runner-up. But I won’t take a short price as he’s 3-for-6 and failed to get out of all 3 trial sets this year in New Mexico before finding his stride of late.

    Hi Octane is 3-for-7 and failed to get beyond the trials 5 times before his career-best effort in the Los Al 2 Million Futurity trials. Doubt we’ll see the 9-1 from that one. Toby Sis appeals most of the early-night qualifiers on trials day. This filly is 5: 4-1-0 lifetime and a neck from perfection. Toby Sis leaves from post 2 in the final, just outside of the also once-beaten Beutfeeful. The Kindergarten Futurity heroine’s only loss in 6 tries was after she broke through the starting gate in the Golden State Million Futurity final as the favorite and left her race in the prelims. If the inner-part of the track is good Sunday at Los Al, look out for an inside exacta.

    The picks: Toby Sis, Beutfeeful, Enforce, Hi Octane.

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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 369829

      #3
      Scott Shapiro: LA Champions Day Hit & Split at FG Sat.


      December 11, 2025 | By Scott Shapiro

      Saturday is a big day for state-breds at Fair Grounds Race Course. With $900,000 worth of stakes events for Louisiana-breds, Louisiana Champions Day is sure to be a day worth attacking in New Orleans and 1/ST BET and Xpressbet are back once again with a promotion to make the card that much more attractive. This time it is a Hit & Split with a total of $5,000 up for grabs. Just register for the promotion and split an additional $2,500 if you hit the late Pick 5 (starts in Race 8) or $2,500 for the late Pick 4 (starts in Race 9). Here is how I plan to attack the late horizontals.

      Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


      Race 8: Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile
      Grade: B-
      Main Ticket: 3 Creole Chrome
      Backups: 5 Our Moneyman

      Forecast: The late Pick 5 kicks off with this 6-furlong dash over the main track for 2YOs where a number of runners exit the Joseph R. Peluso Memorial on November 20. #6 Mr Mo Money sprung the upset that day crossing the wire first at odds of 21-1, but I prefer #5 Our Moneyman out of that group. The Allied Racing Stable runner has taken on open company competition in Kentucky and should move forward in his second local start for trainer Bret Calhoun. I will use him as a backup, but like the chances most of #3 Creole Chrome. The Volatile colt debuted on the same day as the Peluso Memorial where he broke his maiden on debut earning the same time as Our Moneyman did a few races earlier. The Joe Sharp trainee was much the best that day and retains the services of Paco Lopez. He is the one to beat in this year’s Juvenile.


      Race 9: Louisiana Champions Day Turf
      Grade: C+
      Main Ticket: 11 Allnight Moonlight; 9 Woods N Water
      Backups: 1 Letmikefigureitout

      Forecast: This 1 1/16-miles race over the lawn is one of the mor challenging races on the entire card. The lack of speed signed on gives a runner like #1 Letmikefigureitout a chance to use his tactical zip and inside draw to his advantage, but his lack of turf form makes him difficult to get too excited about at his 7-2-ML offering. I am hoping that one of two runners that are likely to provide better value can get enough pace to chase to get to the wire first. #9 Woods N Water won this race a year ago, but has done little since. The Palace gelding failed to hit the board in back-to-back races following his victory last December and has been given time since. If he is ready to fire fresh, he is capable of springing the upset in consecutive years. #11 Allnight Moonlight is my top choice. The son of Ransom the Moon lacks speed, but has run some big races from off the pace over the grass. Hopefully, Jose Ortiz can work out a trip from his outside post.


      Race 10: Louisiana Champions Day Sprint
      Grade: B
      Main Ticket: 5 Not On Herb
      Backups: None

      Forecast: #5 Not On Herb is one of four in this compact group of six that exits last month’s Andrew Ney Memorial. The son of First Samurai stalked early and grinded hard late to earn his fifth victory over the Fair Grounds main track. The David Terre runner is unlikely to offer the same value he did in his victory off the bench, but the fact he draws outside #1 Geaux Sugar again should give jockey Paco Lopez a tactical advantage. I like his chances to earn his tenth career victory and first in the Louisiana Champions Day Sprint.


      Race 11:
      Grade: C+
      Main Ticket: 2 Jet Ruckus
      Backups: 6 Running Faith

      Forecast: I lack creativity in this state-bred MSW event at one-mile where 3-1-ML second choice #2 Jet Ruckus is my top choice. The daughter of Combatant debuted going eight-furlongs at Delta Downs last month where she finished a solid second at nearly 10-1. A move forward should be expected from the 2YO filly, who returns to the races for a barn that is 9 for their last 38 with second-time starters for a juicy ROI of $4.03. I give her a big chance to beat 5-2-ML favorite #6 Running Faith, who makes plenty of sense going two sprints to a route after a runner-up effort going 5-furlongs at Delta Downs.


      Race 12:
      Grade: X
      Main Ticket: 1 Sweet Darlin
      Backups: None

      Forecast: I have no interest in tackling 7-5-ML favorite #1 Sweet Darlin in the finale. The Can the Man mare has been given time after three poor efforts going two-turns to end her 4YO season. Trainer Bret Calhoun and drops his trainee down massively into this beaten $5k claimer at six-furlongs over the main track where Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. should be able to tuck in right behind the speeds and best this group as a heavy public choice. She is likely to be too short of a price to gamble on individually, but makes for a popular single in the late horizontals.

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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 369829

        #4
        Race of the Week: Saturday's Tropical Park Derby at Gulfstream


        December 10, 2025 | By Jeremy Plonk

        The Lead:
        It's last call on the Derby calendar for 3-year-old turfers this Saturday at Gulfstream Park. The $125,000 Tropical Park Derby caps an 11-race card that includes the Tropical Park Oaks. The Derby once was a New Year's Day kickoff race to the sophomore season, boasting winners like Kitten's Joy, Mecke and Barbaro. Now it's a just dessert to a campaign.

        ​Field Depth:
        Grade 3 winner TIZ DASHING is the lone graded stakes-winner in this listed field. Stakes winners include THUNDERING, CHURCH AND STATE, LAYABOUT, TANK and SOUPER FORCES. Meanwhile, SIMULATE is Grade 2-placed and CHAPMAN'S PEAK is Grade 3-placed. These are fairly well-matched, but TIZ DASHING, SIMULATE and TANK may have the strongest company lines over time.

        Pace:
        ROAR OF THE BEAST is most likely to set the tone if he takes to turf. Expect TANK to be sent along from a wide draw, while DAY AND AGE and CHAPMAN'S PEAK should be in the early hunt. The pace looks average for the class and trip over 1-1/16 miles.

        Our Eyes:
        Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

        1-THUNDERING: Trainer Derek Ryan takes over the controls of the Toronto Cup and Kent Stakes runner-up. Blinkers off last time failed to deliver positive results, so the hood goes back on this Canadian export. Last year’s Display winner at Woodbine looks to snap an 8-race losing streak.

        2-DISCREET DANCER: No threat at long odds in back-to-back stakes at Gulfstream. Veteran trainer Antonio Sano gets a jockey upgrade to John Velazquez and a ground-saving trip is likely. But his 5: 0-0-0 stakes mark tells the tale.

        3-TIZ DASHING: Hard-fought winner of the Grade 3 Hill Prince at Aqueduct last out despite drawing farthest outside in a field of 9. Inconsistency has been a part of the Barclay Tagg trainee’s ledger all season, but his best under Javier Castellano puts him squarely in the discussion.

        4-CHURCH AND STATE: Canadian export fired a bullet workout Dec. 4 at Gulfstream for his first local appearance. He was a solid third behind Tiz Dashing in the Grade 3 Hill Prince at 28-1 odds most recently and rallied past Thundering to win the Toronto Cup in August. Should make some late noise.

        5-DAY AND AGE: Potential early pace has a chance to get to the rail with little speed to his inside. Well-traveled son of Omaha Beach is with his third different trainer and wasn’t able to sustain a strong pace in his local unveiling in the Showing Up Stakes. A bit slower tempo would help the cause for trainer Mark Casse.

        6-LAYABOUT: Since moving from Brian Lynch to Patrick Biancone this sprint, this gelding has shown a massive improvement. He’s won 3 of 5 with a narrow runner-up last out in the Showing Up Stakes over this course and distance. May have moved a bit too soon in that one and a rider change to Junior Alvarado should be seen as a positive.

        7-CHAPMAN’S PEAK: After all 6 starts at Kentucky tracks, this Brad Cox trainee hits the road fro his Turfway Park base for the first time. He posted Kentucky Downs and Keeneland wins this fall before a strong second battling on the lead in the Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf at Churchill. Seems to take his course with him. Tyler Gaffalione gets the call for the first time. Contender near the front from the start.

        8-SIMULATE: Son of Tropical Park Derby winner Kitten’s Joy looks to follow in his sire’s footsteps. Back-to-back poor efforts in the Grade 3 Nashville Derby and Grade 3 Bryan Station are causes for concern after a strong summer saw him run second in the Grade 2 Secretariat at Colonial Downs. Regular rider Junior Alvarado hops off a Bill Mott charge in favor of Layabout in this race.

        9-ROAR OF THE BEAST: 1-turn dirt speed will stretch out on turf and see what he can muster on grass for the first time. Even if he handles the footing, the distance is questionable on pedigree and his 2 prior attempts around 2 turns. Rajiv Maragh rides for the often-dangerous Saffie Joseph Jr.

        10-CANDYTOWN: Todd Pletcher’s Showing Up Stakes beaten favorite looks to make amends after a fourth-place finish with traffic woes. Stalking style could be caught wide from post 10 for a horse who hasn’t always finished with flair. Best is capable, but demand some price.

        11-TANK: Potential pace player didn’t get away well at all in the Saranac when last seen in September, but fresh horses often get cooking early upon their return. His 3-race winning streak in Florida earlier this year was promising and he’s run well over this course. Could bounce back after a pair of Saratoga misfires, but will have to be hard-used early from this draw.

        12-SOUPER FORCES: Rallying winner of the Showing Up Stakes at 18-1 odds will likely employ a deep-closing style in hopes of avoiding ground loss in the early going Saturday. He’s 3-for-3 and yet to be favored, rewarding his backers at Presque Isle, Colonial and Gulfstream. Trainer Mike Trombetta won this Tropical Park Derby in 2024 with Souper Blessing after prepping in the Showing Up and looks to repeat that path.

        AE 13-McRAVIN: Jimmy Toner trainee has a win and second in 2 Laurel efforts and would be making his first stakes bid if able to draw in from the also-eligible list. Midpack style likely to be caught wide from this draw, but the Uncle Mo colt has shown promise with more ceiling to achieve.

        Most Likely Exotics Contender:
        LAYABOUT is 3-3 in the exacta over the course and hasn't missed the superfecta in 5 starts since a barn change. His versatile pace style gives him options.

        Best Longshot Contender:
        TANK's last 2 poor efforts should inflate his price and the 11-hole draw will scare some away as well. We know he can handle the course and distance, and can eliminate some variables if he breaks fast and clean.

        Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
        $40 win LAYABOUT. $10 exacta part-wheel LAYABOUT, TANK with LAYABOUT, TANK, CHAPMAN'S PEAK, SOUPER FORCES ($60).
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        • ConleyPicks
          Senior Member
          • Aug 2020
          • 20513

          #5
          Scott Shapiro: Turfway Synthetic Championships Best Bets | Saturday, December 13, 2025

          by Scott Shapiro

          The biggest card in terms of stakes action on Saturday is in Northern Kentucky where Turfway Park presents the second annual Synthetic Championships. The ten-race card that kicks off at 5:55 PM eastern features four $250,000 stakes races over the back half of the night. Full fields and competitive racing make this a card worth diving into this weekend on 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Here are a few horses I like most.

          Race 6: My Charmer

          The first of the stakes races is this one-mile event for fillies and mares where #2 Caitlinhergtness was made the heavy 7-5-ML favorite by oddsmaker Mike Battaglia. The Ontario-bred has had a good season, but her success has all come at Woodbine, which tends to play much differently than the Turfway Park all-weather. She can still win on the ship south, but she is likely to be an underlay, so I will take a swing against with #9 She’s Lookin Lucky. The 5YO mare was sold for $375k at the Keeneland November Horses of Racing Age Sale and remains in the hands of trainer Matt Shirer, who clearly has pointed to this spot post-sale. She has to prove herself over a new surface, but has tactical speed and should be a good enough price to gamble on. Hopefully, jockey Luan Machado can avoid a wide journey into the first turn.

          Play: #9 She’s Lookin Lucky (8-1 ML)


          Race 8: Prairie Bayou

          My best bet of the evening comes in this one-mile event for 3YOs and up where the pace should be honest given the presence of #2 Horsepower, #4 Theismann, and #7 Quartocento. This should allow #5 Dresden Row to find a perfect spot a bit off the pace in the second tier. The Lord Nelson colt has done most of his running up north in Canada, but shipped down to Kentucky last year for this race and ran good to lose. The Lorne Richards trainee broke sharp in the 2024 Prairie Bayou, but checked before the first turn costing him quite a bit of momentum. He regrouped admirably showing a ton of grit along with an affinity for the surface, but missed by a head in the end. He continued to compete north of the border in 2025, but clearly the connections had this spot circled on the calendar. With a cleaner trip, he should find his way to the winner’s circle under regular rider Ryan Munger.

          Play: #5 Dresden Row (4-1 ML)


          Race 10:

          The card concludes with a MSW event for 2YOs at two-turns where #4 Thailand and #5 Empire West return to the races for big-name barns. Both juveniles appear capable of breaking through for their first lifetime win along with #7 Maginnesontap, but I am going to take a bigger swing with #8 Helpful Howie. The son of Midshipman is bred to be a good horse being out of a Wildcat Heir mare that has produced four six-figure earners, including top pick in Race 6, She’s Lookin Lucky. The Richard Dunn homebred underwhelmed in two starts sprinting on the dirt to start his career before an uncomfortable voyage in his first trip on turf and at a route of ground last month. There is no doubt the Matt Shirer trainee has to improve off his first three efforts, but he should get a cleaner trip in this one than he did back last month over the Churchill Downs grass. His price makes him worth the gamble in yet another full field event to close the night.

          Play; #8 Helpful Howie (15-1 ML)

          Comment

          • ConleyPicks
            Senior Member
            • Aug 2020
            • 20513

            #6
            Johnny Burke: Hong Kong International Races: Group 1 Previews

            by Johnny Burke

            Three Group 1’s and a roster of international Group Stakes talent make Sunday one of the biggest days in the Hong Kong Jockey Club’s racing calendar. Contingencies representing champions across the Americas, Asia and Europe will descend on Sha Tin to compete for glory and plentiful purses. Let’s look at the three Group 1’s on the card and get a lay of the land before plotting our attack on this loaded card.


            Race 4 | G1 Hong Kong Vase

            The Lead

            This 1-1/2 mile test puts championship distance to the test over the Sha Tin turf course. Historically, this race lends itself to European shippers and has become a major target for Japanese barns. GIAVELLOTTO will seek to defend his title against the other invaders.

            Field Depth

            Group 1 winners include LOS ANGELES, AL RIFFA, GIAVELLOTTO, GOLIATCH, SOSIE, and URBAN CHIC. Three of this year’s runners were featured in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, with SOSIE and GIAVELOTTO having the best outcomes and finishing within a quarter-length of each other.

            Pace

            MOMENTS IN TIME is expected to set the pace but should have plenty of company with GOLIATH drawing the fourth post, ENSUED in the seventh gate, and early tactical speed from LOS ANGELES, EYDON, and KA YING GENERATION.

            Most Likely Exotics Contenders

            GOLIATH has finished in the exacta in eight of twelve tries going this distance and gets a favorable draw towards the rail to pair with his early pressing style of pace. GIAVELLOTTO is defending his title and is a perfect one-for-one on the Sha Tin turf course but comes tagged with a low morning line price.

            Best Longshot Contenders

            GOLIATH seems to be tainted by a poor outing in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, but his resume paints a picture worth better than his 17/1 morning line. The post is favorable for him, and this isn’t his first time in Hong Kong. While his only other run at Sha Tin was a seven-length loss in the QEII Cup, I’d expect the barn to have a better idea of how to prep him for his return visit.

            Sending It In ($100 Bankroll)

            $50 Quinella | 4 w/ 10

            Playing for a massive price to start the Group 1 action, I think GOLIATH is the price to play in this race coming right off the lead. However, one of the few deep closers is local contender BUNDLE AWARD who has been running short of the 2400-meter distance lately and seems eager to get the extra distance. I like the idea of playing him in the quinella in case he gets a lane for a big late run.

            $25 Exacta | 4 w/ 2,3

            Keying my top longshot on top, the two most logical choices on paper are AL RIFFA and GIAVELLOTTO in my opinion. I don’t think they are getting the setup they hoped for but based on raw talent alone these two are
            worthy of playing underneath if we get our big price home.

            //


            Race 5 | G1 Hong Kong Sprint

            The Lead

            Hong Kong legend and international superstar, KA YING RISING, gets the rail draw for the first time in his career as he looks to defend his Hong Kong Sprint title against a talented group of hopefuls.
            Field Depth

            KA YING RISING is the resume to beat, no doubt about it. SATONO REVE has been close on his tail over this course before, and LUCKY SWEYNESSE will join HELIOS EXPRESS on the list of locals hoping KA YING RISING takes a Michael Jordan break so they can take home a trophy.

            Pace

            WIN CARNELIAN will take a shot at the lead from the eleventh gate just outside of BEAUTY WAVES in the ninth post who will also be fighting for that lead. Tucked away on the rail, KA YING RISING tends to sit off the lead, but his draw may force his hand and send him out early to defend ground.

            Most Likely Exotics Contenders

            TOMODACHI KOKOROE was my choice to finish second to KA YING RISING in his last race. He came up short of that projection but has been in his best form over the last year or so. SATONO REVE, LUCKY SWEYNESSE, and HELIOS EXPRESS are all likely to be battling for the bulk of the dollars in the price pool.

            Best Longshot Contenders

            Every horse not named KA YING RISING is a longshot in this race, but if I had to pick any of the field I’d land on SATONO REVEN out of Japan. He has lost to KA YING RISING twice, by two lengths and one length respectively. He hasn’t been more than two lengths out of the winner’s circle in more than a select few of his Group 1 races and picks up Ryan Moore for this try.

            Sending It In ($100 Bankroll)

            $50 Exacta – 1 w/ 3,11

            I don’t have any doubts about KA YING RISING’s ability to win from the rail, and the exacta pool should be diluted when compared to the win odds for some of the most logical on-paper contenders. For that reason, I’m leaning towards the two biggest prices of the horses I like underneath KA YING RISING, and that gets me to TOMODACHI KOKOROE at 63/1 and LUCKY SWEYNESSE at 42/1.


            //


            Race 7 | G1 Hong Kong Mile

            The Lead

            Hong Kong Triple Crown Winner, VOYAGE BUBBLE, looks to defend his title against a mix of familiar foes and shippers looking to topple the seven-year-old. A field full of champions will go toe-to-toe for the opening leg of the Hong Kong Triple Crown.

            Field Depth

            Group 1 winners include SOUL RUSH, VOYAGE BUBBLE, DOCKLANDS, RED LION, and EMBROIDERY. SOUL RUSH, coming in from Japan, and the local VOYAGE BUBBLE are certainly the most decorated of the runners.

            Pace

            COPARTNER PRANCE and THE LION IN WINTER both seem most likely to go for the lead, with THE LION IN WINTER being more willing to concede a position out front.

            Most Likely Exotics Contenders

            EMBROIDERY has only run on a dry turf course, but at just three years old she has been outstanding in most of her starts in Japan. She’ll get a handicap and run with only 121 pounds in the irons, I think this horse on the rise is primed for a big run that could place her in the money at a decent price.

            Best Longshot Contenders

            THE LION IN WINTER was one of my top choices in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, and I think he’s going to take to a bit more moisture in the track in Hong Kong better than he did at Del Mar in November. This is a talented colt that hasn’t quite put it together in his six Group 1 tries, but if he ships well to Hong Kong, I won’t put it past him with Ryan Moore jumping back on board for Aiden O’Brien. RED LION has toppled VOYAGE BUBBLE once with Hugh Bowman in the irons. It would be a tall task for the six-year-old who has been declining in form as of late, but at 99/1 it’s well worth taking a shot.

            Sending It In ($100 Bankroll)

            $25 Win – 13

            I think this is VOYAGE BUBBLE’s race to lose, at least on paper, but I don’t think we have seen the best from THE LION IN WINTER and if the Win odds are anything close to his 34/1 morning line, I’ll be taking a big swing.

            $25 Quinella – 2 w/ 8,13,14

            If, indeed, VOYAGE BUBBLE is coming into this race at his best, I want to be able to capitalize on his success. RED LION has beaten him before but will need to dig deep for a form he hasn’t seen in quite some time. At 99/1, the quinella is a great spot to tuck him for a longshot run. THE LION IN WINTER is still on my radar as a horse rising and I think this could be an opening for him to put it all together. EMBROIDERY is the filly to watch taking on the boys, but this three-year-old filly has a trajectory I love and just finds a way to get to the wire.


            //

            Race 8 | G1 Hong Kong Cup

            The Lead

            ROMANTIC WARRIOR makes his second start back in Hong Kong after a big stint in the Middle East. At 1/5 on the morning line, this is his race to lose in a short field.

            Field Depth

            ROMANTIC WARRIOR is ten of sixteen in Group 1 tries. BELLAGIO OPERA and QUISISANA are the only two other runners with a win at this level.

            Pace

            GALEN should be out in front of this field with a steady group right off his pace. ROUSHAM PARK and STRAIGHT ARRON look like your most likely off-pace closers.
            Most Likely Exotics Contenders

            ROUSHAM PARK and GALEN are my choices to find their way in the money. Some of the more talented on-paper runners in this field go boom or bust at this distance, and since I’m not choosing them to win, I am banking on them going bust and opening things up for a bigger price to sneak into those 2nd and 3rd spots.

            Best Longshot Contenders

            None. I hate to say it, but I don’t think there are any longshots that are legitimate contenders here, just playing for positions underneath ROMANTIC WARRIOR.

            Sending It In ($100 Bankroll)

            $50 Exacta – 1 w/ 3,4

            This is ROMANTIC WARRIOR’S race to lose coming off a victorious return to Hong Kong in the G1 Hong Kong Cup. The horse is 19-for-26 lifetime, 14-for-18 on the Sha Tin turf course and has seemed to find yet another gear deep in his seven-year-old season. However, I do think there’s a great chance some of the other potential contenders can’t hang on for all ten furlongs and open things up for ROUSHAM PARK and GALEN to find their way to the tote board. I’ll stake my bankroll on ROMANTIC WARRIOR taking home the glory and getting a big run out of either GALEN or ROUSHAM PARK.​

            Comment

            • ConleyPicks
              Senior Member
              • Aug 2020
              • 20513

              #7
              Jeremy Plonk: $194K Carryover / Mandatory Payout Woodbine Super Hi 5 Play | Saturday, December 13, 2025

              by Jeremy Plonk

              Woodbine offers a mandatory payout in Saturday’s Race 10 super high 5 wager, which brings a $194,728 (US) carryover to the party. Pick the top-5 finishers in order on the 20-cent base wager to collect. Note that 1/ST BET and Xpressbet players will earn 10X 1/ST Rewards Points on all wagers Saturday at Woodbine.

              Like most any wager type, even a super high 5 begins with an opinion on the winner. From there, I’ll feather out.

              #10 Bit of Music is 15-1 morning line, but won’t scare me from making her the top key. Trainer Dale Desruisseaux has been finishing the Woodbine season strongest of all. He’s won 31% since the start of November (5-16) and twice paired with jockey Rafael Hernandez with stakes winners during that streak. Hernandez rides this one back after adding blinkers for a November 2 return turf dash – and should appreciate more distance and finally getting into a form cycle after a stop-and-go, brief career to date.

              Immediate under the top pick are a series of very reliable sorts who just haven’t been knockout artists on the win end. #6 Sincelairity, #2 Why Em Sea Ay and #8 Home for a Rest are consistently right there, but each lost last time out at 2-1 or less odds while runners-up. I’ll trust them in the 2-3 slots to deliver in some fashion.

              That leaves the 4-5 slots, where the same trio apply in addition to #5 Just Follow Me (9 of her last 10 in the top-5), #7 Give Me the Boots (5 of her last 7 in the top 4) and #9 Spirit Bear (7 of her last 8 in the top-5).

              While it might seem like a lot of horses, the 20-cent base bet and top-key horse make this quite affordable. Barring scratches, here’s the play:

              10
              6,2,8
              6,2,8
              6,2,8,5,7,9
              6,2,8,5,7,9

              Ticket cost: $24 for 20 cents​

              Comment

              • ConleyPicks
                Senior Member
                • Aug 2020
                • 20513

                #8
                Gulfstream Park Hotlist - December 13


                Dec. 12, 2025

                By Bob Ehalt and Matt Shifman

                Hot List Key:

                A : A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
                *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches in the final 3 minutes and finished 1st through 3rd
                *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worse
                * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

                1st race – (7) Rebel With a Clue drops into a claimer and should prove best in this field. (5) Cajun Gold may welcome a return to turf. (9) Melody Man should be closing in the late stages. (4) Night cannot be ignored. Betting strategy: 7 to win, place. Exacta box: 4-5-7-9.

                3rd race – (6) Vuela Paloma was second last time and moves up off a Dibona claim. (3) Any Moment looks like the one to fear. (2) Gimme Some Luck should work out a good trip. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 2-3-6.

                6th race – (2) Live High Live Low has been sharpened in some sprints and should thrive with the stretchout. (3) Nantasket Beach will be a threat in the final furlong. (8) Adios Cole will be helped by a quick pace. (1) Act a Fool will be helped by a rail trip. Betting strategy: 2 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-3-8.

                7th race – (6) Freedom Road is in great form and gets top billing in this field. (1) El Principito should be a main threat from the rail. (2) Unclecharliesgift can bounce back with a better try here. Betting strategy: 6 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-6.

                9th race – (1) Little Georgie has was second in her debut for Saffie and should graduate today. (2) Imperatrice was also second and will be the toughest rival. (6) Quiddity disappointed last time but can bounce back with blinkers on. (7) Shot At Perfection seems to be on an upswing. Betting strategy: 1 to win, place. Exacta box: 1-2-6-7.

                Comment

                • ConleyPicks
                  Senior Member
                  • Aug 2020
                  • 20513

                  #9
                  Aqueduct Hotlist - December 13


                  Dec. 12, 2025

                  By Matt Shifman and Bob Ehalt

                  Hot List Key:
                  A:
                  A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
                  *C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
                  *D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
                  * - 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.

                  5th race [Clm 17500 N3L, 1 mi] – (8) Awesome Empire (B) broke last three weeks ago, had to rally eight-wide, and finished second. (6) Enduring Spirit came back from a layoff to win the N2L condition by almost four lengths and then was third in a starter allowance. (5) Flat On was third in his last two races which were at the N3L condition. (9) Smilensaycheese used a closing move to win the N2L claimer in October and then tried for a $30,000 tag just nine days ago.

                  6th race [NY, Md Sp Wt, 6 ? F] – (9) Hire the Hat (B) lunged and broke slowly to be last early in her debut and got to fourth. (6) Boiling Point set the pace and finished third in her debut three weeks ago in a race where the first-place horse came back to win again. (2) Liberty’s Advance ran in a pair of NY-bred stakes to begin her career and finished second and fourth. Last time she was second in the Boiling Point. (1) Tuthilltown was third in her first start at Saratoga and then missed by a head on the turf last month at Aqueduct.

                  7th race [Go For Wand, 1 mi] – (3) Weigh the Risks won 4 out of her last 5 starts for Chad Brown and Manny Franco with a win in the Pumpkin Pie last month. (6) Stonewall Star won the Bay Ridge for NY-breds a year ago and returned in October to run second in another state-bred stakes. (2) Scalable won the Interborough at the Big A a year ago and was third behind the top choice in the Pumpkin Pie. (5) Just Katherine has been off since September of 2024 when last seen she won a top-level allowance and just missed winning the Bed O Roses (G2).

                  9th race [NY, Alw 81000 N1X, 7F] – (5) Princess Becca (A) set the pace after an eight month layoff and finished fourth. (4) She’s Grand began her career for Linda Rice and then moved to Finger Lakes where she won 5 out of 7 starts. Now she’s back with Rice. (9) Sunshine Lily broke her maiden in September and was second at this level three weeks ago. (8) Capital Gal had top three finishes in 4 out of her last 5 races in this type of allowance.

                  Best bets: Weigh the Risks (7th); Princess Becca (9th). Best Value: Awesome Empire (5th); Hire the Hat (6th).

                  Saturday Pick 3 Special --
                  Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 covers races 5-7 and includes the Go For Wand ? 5, 6, 8, 9 with 1, 2, 6, 9 with 3 = $16.
                  No. Name Letter
                  last race
                  Today's Race Comments
                  (8) Awesome Empire B on 11/20 5 Broke last and rallied eight wide.
                  (9) Hire the Hat B on 11/6 6 Had a bad break in her debut but finished fourth.
                  (5) Princess Becca A on 10/26 9 Came back from a long layoff to run fourth.

                  Comment

                  • ConleyPicks
                    Senior Member
                    • Aug 2020
                    • 20513

                    #10
                    Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | December 13, 2025


                    Dec. 12, 2025

                    Race 7 at Turfway Park | Saturday, December 13 | Post Time 8:55 PM Eastern

                    Holiday Inaugural Stakes| Purse $250,000 | Six Furlongs on All-Weather | Fillies and Mares, Three-Years-Old and upward

                    Top winning contenders are Ellen Jay (2), Pondering (3)

                    Other Contenders: Civetta (7), Ms. Tart (1), Johanny (13)

                    Analysis and Contenders:

                    Ellen Jay (2) finished sixth in her last race just two weeks ago, but that result should be disregarded because it was run on traditional dirt. In today’s race, she is the top horse in this field on her first try on the all-weather track surface. On September 19, in the Grade 2 Presque Isle Masters Stakes, Ellen Jay rallied from 12th early to finish second, with a career-best 108 Equibase Speed Figure. She won the Glen Cove last year, with jockey Flavien Prat riding her for the first time. He rode her a second time in the Presque Isle Masters. Prat is back today and is riding for trainer Brad Cox, who has a 35% win rate over the past two years.

                    Pondering (3) won the Grade 2 Bessarabian Stakes on November 8, like Ellen Jay, this was her first attempt on an all-weather surface. She earned a career-best figure of 101 and won the Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Turf Sprint Stakes, where she posted a 100 figure. The North American leader for 2025, Irad Ortiz Jr., rode the filly for the first time and has won 28% of his races with trainer Brendan Walsh over the past two years. Between Ortiz and Prat (who is second in the 2025 jockey standings), Prat is only $350,000 behind, despite each earning more than $39 million this year. Watch these two jockeys compete over the final three weeks of the season, especially when they race in the same events as this year’s Inaugural Stakes.

                    Civetta (7), Ms. Tart (1), and Johanny (13) also have a chance of being contenders. Civetta has three wins, but is racing on the all-weather surface for the first time. Her last race on turf was on November 3 with a 107 figure. Ms. Tart has five wins in 11 races this year, including a Satin N Lace Stakes on an all-weather track on August 25, with a 101 figure, but she finished ninth in the Presque Isle Master. Johanny ran a career-best race, coming in second in the Autumn Day Stakes at this distance on turf. She could have a shot.

                    Bets:

                    Win: Ellen Jay (2) and Pondering (3) should be at fair odds at 2 to 1 odds or higher.

                    Exactas: Ellen Jay (2) and Pondering (3) over Ellen Jay (2), Pondering (3), Civetta (7), Ms. Tart (1), Johanny (13)

                    Comment

                    • ConleyPicks
                      Senior Member
                      • Aug 2020
                      • 20513

                      #11
                      F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special
                      Equibase Special - Race 3 Leg 3 of the Tropical Turf Pick 3
                      Stakes • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Age 3 CR: 104 • Purse: $125,000 • Post: 5:17P
                      TROPICAL PARK DERBY GP - R11 - (RAIL AT 45 FEET). THREE YEAR OLDS. FREE NOMINATION BY SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30. $1,250 TO ENTER. A SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION FEE OF $200 MAY BE MADE PRIOR TO CLOSING TIME OF ENTRIES. AFTER PAYMENT OF 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST, 62% OF THE REMAINING PURSE SHALL BE PAID TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH AND 3% TO FIFTH. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF AN OPEN STAKES RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF, ALLOWED 2 LBS.; GRADED STAKES PLACED OR TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE-BRED ALLOWANCE, 4 LBS.; SUCH A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER, 6 LBS. ALL FEES SHALL BE PAID PRIOR TO THE START OF THE RACE. PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO STAKES WINNERS, STAKES PLACED THEN BY HIGHEST CAREER EARNINGS. TROPHY TO THE WINNING OWNER. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE TAPETA COURSE AT ONE MILE AND ONE SIXTEENTH)
                      Contenders Race Analysis
                      P# Horse Morn
                      Line
                      Accept
                      Odds
                      Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * TIZ DASHING: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. LAYABOUT: Horse's win perce ntage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. CANDYTOWN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SOUPER FORCES: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. CHURCH AND STATE: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
                      3 TIZ DASHING 7/2 5/1
                      6 LAYABOUT 10/1 7/1
                      10 CANDYTOWN 8/1 7/1
                      12 SOUPER FORCES 8/1 8/1
                      4 CHURCH AND STATE 8/1 9/1

                      P# Horse (In Running Style Order) Post Morn
                      Line
                      Running Style Good
                      Class
                      Good
                      Speed
                      Early Figure Finish Figure Platinum
                      Figure
                      11 TANK 11 8/1 Front-runner 104 102 94.2 86.0 71.5
                      5 DAY AND AGE 5 20/1 Front-runner 99 96 91.0 93.2 83.7
                      9 ROAR OF THE BEAST 9 20/1 Front-runner 95 90 87.6 82.8 59.3
                      10 CANDYTOWN 10 8/1 Stalker 100 102 106.2 95.8 86.8
                      3 TIZ DASHING 3 7/2 Stalker 107 103 101.0 99.8 95.3
                      6 LAYABOUT 6 10/1 Stalker 106 101 89.1 95.0 79.5
                      7 CHAPMAN'S PEAK 7 5/2 Stalker 104 99 88.0 85.8 75.8
                      13 MCRAVIN 13 20/1 Stalker 88 84 48.5 80.7 61.7
                      4 CHURCH AND STATE 4 8/1 Trailer 99 98 87.7 94.8 83.8
                      2 DISCREET DANCER 2 30/1 Trailer 84 78 78.0 84.9 60.4
                      12 SOUPER FORCES 12 8/1 Trailer 99 97 77.8 92.7 83.2
                      1 THUNDERING 1 20/1 Alternator/Non-contender 98 95 84.8 89.8 72.8
                      8 SIMULATE 8 12/1 Alternator/Non-contender 100 99 77.8 90.2 78.7

                      Comment

                      • ConleyPicks
                        Senior Member
                        • Aug 2020
                        • 20513

                        #12
                        F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
                        Camarero - Race 6 Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double 6-7
                        Claiming $4,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 58 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 4:40P
                        FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JUNE 13 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 13 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
                        Contenders Race Analysis
                        P# Horse Morn
                        Line
                        Accept
                        Odds
                        Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * TRUE CRIMSON: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distan ce/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. RUSSIAN TANK: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TIZ LIGHT THE WAY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30.
                        9 TRUE CRIMSON 12/1 3/1
                        2 RUSSIAN TANK 2/1 9/2
                        10 TIZ LIGHT THE WAY 8/1 8/1

                        P# Horse (In Running Style Order) Post Morn
                        Line
                        Running Style Good
                        Class
                        Good
                        Speed
                        Early Figure Finish Figure Platinum
                        Figure
                        9 TRUE CRIMSON 9 12/1 Front-runner 73 68 65.6 51.2 42.7
                        8 LUCAS VONFEDAK 8 5/1 Front-runner 62 44 61.2 32.4 18.9
                        2 RUSSIAN TANK 2 2/1 Trailer 65 55 62.4 53.4 50.4
                        10 TIZ LIGHT THE WAY 10 8/1 Alternator/Trailer 65 52 55.8 51.0 42.0
                        6 AUTHENTIC HEART 6 4/1 Alternator/Trailer 58 52 55.8 48.2 39.7
                        5 DAY BLUE 5 5/2 Alternator/Trailer 62 44 44.8 45.5 33.5
                        4 DON'T BOX ME IN 4 3/1 Alternator/Non-contender 61 53 61.6 43.2 38.7
                        3 PRAISEWORTHY 3 10/1 Alternator/Non-contender 44 33 49.0 21.0 6.0
                        7 KLIMTOMANIAC 7 5/1 Alternator/Non-contender 53 39 40.8 44.8 28.3
                        1 BLACK N SOUR 1 20/1 Alternator/Non-contender 53 30 30.3 30.3 11.3

                        Comment

                        • ConleyPicks
                          Senior Member
                          • Aug 2020
                          • 20513

                          #13

                          Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town
                          Always check program numbers.
                          Odds shown are morning line odds.



                          Race 4 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12400 Class Rating: 63

                          FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. NO WVB CLAUSE.
                          RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                          # 7 SONG AND A BREEZE 1/1
                          # 6 IMPETUS ECHO (GB) 5/1
                          # 11 SEVEN'S MAGIC 10/1
                          SONG AND A BREEZE supports the bet in here. Latchman has a win percent of 24 over the last 30 days. She looks competitive in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the midpoint. Should definitely be carefully examined in this contest if only for the competitive speed figure earned in the last outing. IMPETUS ECHO (GB) - Trainers don't bring ponies back this soon without any reason. Is a solid choice - given the 62 Equibase Speed Figure from her most recent race. SEVEN'S MAGIC - Very good jock and conditioner combo winning 21 percent of their races working together. When this rider and handler team up, bettors often make money.

                          Comment

                          • ConleyPicks
                            Senior Member
                            • Aug 2020
                            • 20513

                            #14

                            Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred)
                            Always check program numbers.
                            Odds shown are morning line odds.


                            Race 3 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 101

                            FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000
                            RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                            # 2 SPEED GRAZY 6/1
                            # 5 DOO WOP DON 5/2
                            # 3 ATOMIC DROP 6/1
                            I think SPEED GRAZY is a quite good choice. This equine could upset this field of horses at a big price. He has very strong class ratings, averaging 103, and has to be considered in here. Has to be given a shot against this group displaying competitive figures recently and an average speed rating of 93 under similar conditions. DOO WOP DON - He has been running quite well and the Equibase speed figs are among the top in this field. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Mullins running at this distance are the best in this field. ATOMIC DROP - Strong dividends over time for this jockey and handler duo. Uranga has him trained soundly to break quickly out of the starting gate.

                            Comment

                            • ConleyPicks
                              Senior Member
                              • Aug 2020
                              • 20513

                              #15

                              Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


                              Remington Park - Race #7 - Post: 8:48pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $38,000 Class Rating: 66

                              Rating:

                              #4 MOMACYA (ML=5/1)
                              #7 GIFT OF GRACE (ML=5/2)


                              MOMACYA - This filly is almost always in-the-money. Jock and handler do well when they unite. Wethey and Buehrer have been consistent together. GIFT OF GRACE - I think this filly is ready to run a good one. She's had enough races since the layoff and should be fit. I like the case that this filly's last speed rating, 49, is tops in this group.

                              Vulnerable Contenders: #6 WEST CODE LADY (ML=2/1), #2 SHAMROCK N ROLL (ML=6/1), #1 BAILEY SIOUX (ML=8/1),

                              WEST CODE LADY - In any contest of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been looking good in short distance contests lately. SHAMROCK N ROLL - If she goes off at the morning line of 6/1, I'll have to pass. BAILEY SIOUX - This runner will probably be way back as this field crosses the finish line.

                              GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MOMACYA - This filly takes a big tumble in the class rating department from a rating of 83 down to 66. Strong contender.


                              STRAIGHT WAGERS: #4 MOMACYA is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better
                              EXACTA WAGERS: Box [4,7]
                              TRIFECTA WAGERS: Pass
                              SUPERFECTA WAGERS: None

                              Comment

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