12-12-11

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

Dunkel

MONDAY, DECEMBER 12
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (12/8) Game 133-134: St. Louis at Seattle (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 119.480; Seattle 134.089
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 14 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 10; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-10); Over

[Mr. IWS]

DCI

Monday, December 12, 2011
SEATTLE 24, St. Louis 10

[Mr. IWS]

Sixth Sense

134 3% SEATTLE –10 No higher than -10

[Mr. IWS]

POINTWISE PHONES:

3* Seattle

[Mr. IWS]

Double Dragon

SEAHAWKS -10

[Mr. IWS]

LuckyDaySports

Monday’s Comp Play

NFL
St. Louis at Seattle OVER 36.5

[Mr. IWS]

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (N/A)

Why Rams cover: More important, why is this game in the Monday night spotlight? Not much to say in Rams’ defense, but Seattle 2-6 ATS last eight in December.

Why Seahawks cover: Despite starting Tarvaris Jackson at QB, Seattle 7-2-1 ATS last 10 games. And Seahawks have Rams’ number, cashing eight of last nine overall and four in a row at home.

Total: Rams are like pimply faced kid at the prom, hoping to score, but it never really happens. St. Louis averaging league-worst 11.7 ppg. That makes it reasonable to think under, which is 4-1 in Rams’ last five overall and 18-7-1 last 26 inside NFC West. Seattle, though, on over streaks of 5-0 at home, 6-0 in December and 17-6 overall.

[Mr. IWS]

What bettors need to know: St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-10, 36.5)

THE STORY: The last time the St. Louis Rams squared off with the Seattle Seahawks, the NFC West title and a berth in the playoffs were on the line. The stakes will be considerably lower when the Rams visit Seattle on Monday night. The Seahawks, who are making their second straight appearance in prime time, still have a fleeting chance at a wild card slot while the Rams have already assured themselves of double-digit losses for the fourth time in the past five seasons. Seattle has dominated the rivalry with St. Louis, winning the last 12 of 13 overall and six straight at CenturyLink Field.

LINE: Seahawks -10, O/U 37. Oddsmakers had Seattle set around -9.5 at the open, so it's up about half a point since then. The total is sitting around 36.5 or 37.

ABOUT THE RAMS (2-10): St. Louis bottomed out in last week’s 26-0 loss at San Francisco. The league’s lowest-scoring team managed a season-worst 157 yards of total offense and lost backup QB A.J. Feeley to a broken thumb on his throwing hand. With starter Sam Bradford still hampered by a high ankle sprain, St. Louis may have to turn to untested Tom Brandstater, who has never played a down in the NFL. However, Bradford did participate in Saturday's workout. Running back Steven Jackson was limited to 42 yards in a 24-7 loss to the Seahawks last month.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (5-7): RB Marshawn Lynch has been the catalyst for the turnaround in Seattle, which has won three of its last four games. Lynch has ripped off four 100-yard games in the last five and has scored a touchdown in eight consecutive games. The only game in which he failed to reach 100 in the last five came against the Rams, when he went for 88 yards on 27 carries. Much-maligned QB Tarvaris Jackson had his best game in the 31-14 rout of the Eagles, going 13 of 16 for 190 yards and a TD.

TRENDS:

- St. Louis is 3-13 against the spread in its last 16 games overall.
- Seattle is 6-2 against the spread in its last eight home games.
- The over is 5-0 in Seattle's last five home games.
- St. Louis is 1-8 against the spread in its last nine meetings with Seattle.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Lynch has rushed for 591 yards in the past five games, the most in the NFL.

2. Rams DE Chris Long has a six-game sack streak, collecting nine in that span.

3. In the last four meetings in Seattle, the Seahawks have outscored the Rams 114-25.

PREDICTION: Seahawks 27, Rams 10. St. Louis’ woes in the Pacific Northwest continue.

[Mr. IWS]

MNF Betting Notes

St. Louis (2-10 SU, 4-8 ATS) at Seattle (5-7 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Skinny

The Seahawks have an outside chance to earn a wild card spot in the NFC playoffs but they’ll need to win out and get some help along the way as well. Seattle looked sharp last Thursday when it beat Philadelphia 31-14 at home. The win could’ve been their fourth straight but in Week 12 the Seahawks blew a double-digit lead at home en route to a 23-17 loss to the Redskins. After starting the season 0-6, the Rams showed some life by winning two of three, which including a 31-21 victory at home against New Orleans. Since that three-game stretch, St. Louis had dropped three in a row both straight up and against the spread.

ATS Angles

The Rams are 2-10 ATS this season
The Rams have gone 1-5 both SU and ATS on the road, the lone win coming against Cleveland (13-12)
The Rams have scored more than 20 points on two occasions this season
The Rams have seen the ‘under’ go 8-3-1 this season, including 0-5-1 on the road
The Seahawks are 7-4-1 ATS this season
The Seahawks have gone 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS at home
The Seahawks have seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 at home

Odds

The opener was sent out at Seattle -9, with a total of 37. Currently the number is 10 at most shops, with one major offshore pushing 11 as of late Sunday. The total is still hovering between 36 and 37 points.

Seattle has been a favorite (-3) once this season and it lost at home to Washington, 23-17.

St. Louis has been a double-digit underdog four times in 2011, and its gone 1-3 both SU and ATS. The lone win and cover against the Saints.

Injury Notes

Sam Bradford (ankle) practiced on Saturday for the Rams but the quarterback is listed as ‘doubtful’ in most reports. Backup A.J. Feely (thumb) is also listed as ‘doubtful’ which means Tom Brandstarter could be the starter. College followers will recall his days with Fresno State, where he was decent. However, he hasn’t had a snap in the NFL.

Head-to-Head Notes

Seattle has won 12 of 13 against St. Louis, including the first meeting this season. In the last four trips to the Great Northwest, the Rams have been outscored 114-25. Four of the last five in this series has gone ‘under’ the total.

2011
Seattle 24 at St. Louis 7 (Seahawks +3, Under 40.5)

2010
Seattle 16 vs. St. Louis 6 (Seahawks +4, Under 42)
St. Louis 20 vs. Seattle 3 (Rams -2.5, Under 40)

2009
Seattle 27 at St. Louis 17 (Seahawks -3.5, Over 42.5)
Seattle 28 vs. St. Louis (Seahawks -7.5, Under 43)

MNF Trends

Favorites are 10-4 SU this season
Favorites are 8-6 ATS this season
Favorites have covered four straight on MNF, all wins by double digits
The ‘over’ has gone 7-6-1 on MNF this season and is on a 4-1 run the last five weeks
St. Louis has gone 0-1 both SU and ATS on MNF, losing at the N.Y. Giants 28-16 in Week 2

[Mr. IWS]

NHL

Hot teams
-- None

Cold teams
-- Devils lost five of their last seven games. Tampa Bay lost six of its last seven games.

Totals
-- Over is 7-2 in New Jersey's last nine road games.


Series records
-- Devils won 17 of their last 20 games against Tampa Bay.

Back-to-Back
-- None

[Mr. IWS]

Today's NHL Picks

New Jersey at Tampa Bay

The Lightning look to bounce back from a 5-2 loss to Philadelphia and build on their 5-0 record in their last 5 games after allowing 5 goals or more in the previous game. Tampa Bay is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Lightning favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-120). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 12 Time Posted 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: New Jersey at Tampa Bay (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.787; Tampa Bay 11.570 Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-120); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-120); Over

[Mr. IWS]

DCI NHL

Season: 129-109 (.542)

TAMPA BAY 3, New Jersey 2

[Mr. IWS]

DCI CBB

Season
Straight Up: 1062-327 (.765)
ATS: 381-450 (.458)
ATS Vary Units: 1430-1867 (.434)
Over/Under: 411-405 (.504)
Over/Under Vary Units: 599-555 (.519)

Non-Conference
Oral Roberts 71, UALR 66
OREGON 85, Portland State 64
RUTGERS 73, Monmouth 55
SIENA 71, Fordham 60
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 71, Southern 51
St. Francis (N.Y.) 65, HOWARD 59
ULM 69, Nicholls State 63
Vmi 98, LONGWOOD 94

[Mr. IWS]

NCAA Basketball Picks

Fordham at Siena

The Saints look to take advantage of a Fordham team that is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games as a road underdog of 7 to 12 1/2 points. Siena is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Saints favored by 14. Dunkel Pick: Siena (-7 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 12 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 741-742: Fordham at Siena (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 39.794; Siena 53.588 Dunkel Line: Siena by 14; 133 Vegas Line: Siena by 7 1/2; 128 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Siena (-7 1/2); Over

Game 743-744: Portland State at Oregon (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 46.473; Oregon 60.113 Dunkel Line: Oregon by 13 1/2; 141 Vegas Line: Oregon by 14 1/2; 145 Dunkel Pick: Portland State (+14 1/2); Under

Game 751-752: Oral Roberts at Arkansas-Little Rock (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oral Roberts 58.802; Arkansas-Little Rock 50.425 Dunkel Line: Oral Roberts by 8 1/2; 128 Vegas Line: Oral Roberts by 7; 131 Dunkel Pick: Oral Roberts (-7); Under