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JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK
Dartmouth +11 over IPFW
Dartmouth +11 over IPFW
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SPORTS WAGERS
Vancouver -½ -110 over COLUMBUS
After a decent run that saved Scott Arniel’s job for the time being, the Blue Jackets are back to their losing ways. They’ve lost three of their past four games and have not won in regulation time in seven straight. What’s more interesting is that the coach has decided to go with goaltender Steve Mason here. Mason has been on the bench for the past 12 games after posting a 3-12-1 record with a 3.63 goals-against average and meager .875 save percentage. Mason’s confidence has been shattered (and his play has been awful) for two years running so it’s rather curious as to why Arniel decided to go with him against the Canucks when the offensively challenged Kings are in town on Thursday. Vancouver has scored 24 times over its last five games and has scored at least four times in all of those. They’re the hottest team in the NHL, they’re an elite club and they should have little trouble disposing of these Jackets. Play: Vancouver -½ -107 (Risking 2.20 units to win 2).
N.Y. Islanders +230 over MONTREAL (3-way betting line)
What we have here is perhaps the league’s biggest underachiever’s against a Montreal team that is thin on talent everywhere but in goal. Montreal has three wins in its last nine games. One of those was in OT and the other two were decided by a goal. The Canadiens are not capable of blowing away teams and they’re very capable of losing to anyone. Carey Price is to Montreal what Peyton Manning is to the Colts. Meanwhile, the undervalued Islanders got off to an awful start and most of it was goaltender related. That problem has been addressed with Al Montoya (2.43 GAA, .910 save %) offering stability at the all-important position. The Islanders had won four of five and picked up points in all five games before losing to Chicago and Pittsburgh in their past two games. The Isles’ last five losses were against Chicago twice, Pittsburgh twice and Philadelphia, all elite teams and they take a huge step down in class here. Big overlay. Play: N.Y. Islanders +230 (Risking 2 units).
Ottawa +230 over BUFFALO (3-way betting line)
The Senators are in a bit of a funk but that coincided with a nasty schedule that saw them playing six games in 10 days. Ottawa has shown terrific resiliency all season long, bouncing back time and time again when they weren’t supposed to. This is a underrated and undervalued club that is worth backing at these prices because they’re not going away and should remain in the playoff picture throughout. The Sens love coming to the rink again and they come in here rested and should be raring to go after that rough stretch. The Sabres need fixing. They have two ugly wins in their past six games. In the first win of that pair they were outshout 34-14 in Nashville and in the second win they mustered 20 shots on net against Florida. Since Nov. 25th, Buffalo is averaging just 2.25 goals per game and they’re on a 2-28 rut on the power-play. The Sabres heads aren’t in this thing for some reason and that was never more evident than on Saturday night against the Rangers when they surrendered two shorthanded goals. Buffalo is a team in trouble and until they wortk it out, we’ll keep fading them. Play: Ottawa +230 (Risking 2 units).
San Jose -½ +117 over COLORADO
The Sharks conclude their brief three-game road trip here after losing the first two. Their stock is low with just two wins in their last eight games and that provides us with a take-back opportunity for them to win in regulation and one we’re happy to jump on. San Jose has as many quality players as just about anyone. Its two losses on this trip were to St. Louis and Chicago, the latter in OT. They played well enough to win twice but instead lost twice and they’ll dig down deep tonight to salvage something out of this trip and they couldn’t have handpicked a better team to take its frustrations out on. The Avalanche are not a physical or big team. They constantly lose the battles for pucks and against elite teams they’re simply outclassed. Colorado also returns home from the dreaded three-game trip to Western Canada in which they lost all three and were outscored 13-3. No excuses for the superior club here in a game that sets up nicely for them. Play: San Jose -½ +117 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +147 over BOSTON
John Stevens takes over the coaching duties from Terry Murray and perhaps the uninspiring efforts from these Kings will take a turn for the better. This was supposed to be a year that L.A was to make some noise but a slow start has them off the radar at the moment. Two positive angles come into play here with the first one being the first game for a new coach. The second profitable angle is playing a team in the first game of a trip, as they usually play its best game in an effort to “set the tone”. The Bruins have been more beatable at TD Center (10-6) than they’ve been on the road (8-3). They’ll also play this one without Zdeno Chara. Chara plays about 33 minutes a game and his loss is akin to an NFL team losing its #1 QB. The B’s are always tough and this is certainly no cakewalk for the Kings. What it is, however, is an opportunity to right this ship and you can expect the Kings to play one of its best games of the season. Play: Los Angeles +147 (Risking 2 units).
TORONTO -½ -104 over Carolina
Most losing NHL teams have some hope and plenty to build on for the future. The Hurricanes have very little hope. The toll that losing takes on a team without hope has hit the ‘Canes hard. They’ve lost eight of nine with only win over that span occurring against Edmonton. Carolina continues to allow more quality scoring chances than any team in the NHL and it’s not close. The Hurricanes have two high-end talent players on the whole roster, Jeff Skinner and Eric Staal. Skinner leads the team in goals with 12 and the closest player to him has seven. That’s disturbing and to make matters worse, Skinner is on the rack and will miss this game. Also note that the ‘Canes will play their fourth straight on the road after playing in Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg. The Leafs are coming off back-to-back losses to New Jersey and Washington but don’t put too much emphasis on that. They were the better team against both of those clubs but came out on the short end. The Leafs have been beating up on weaker teams all season long, they’ve beaten plenty of quality clubs too and there’s nothing to suggest that won’t continue here. Play: Toronto -½ -104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).Comment
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DAVID BANKS
Wisconsin Badgers vs. WI-Milwaukee Panthers
A Dairy State battle is lined up for Tuesday night when the Wisconsin Badgers (8-2, 6-1 ATS) make the short trip to Milwaukee to take on the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (8-2, 2-5 ATS) in their annual rivalry game; tip-off from US Cellular Arena is set to go live on ESPN3 at 8:00 ET.
Since dropping back to back games to both the North Carolina Tar Heels and Marquette Golden Eagles, head coach Bo Ryan's 15th ranked Wisconsin Badgers have posted a pair of impressive home win and covers against Wisconsin Green Bay and UNLV. In doing so, Wiscy improved its record to 6-1 SU & 3-1 ATS as a host after guard Ben Brust came off the bench and erupted for a game-high 25 points on 8-of-9 shooting from the field which included a perfect 7-of-7 effort from beyond the arc. Though the Badgers score an average of just 68.1 PPG (#175) and shoot 44.8 percent from the field (#128), they’ve lit it up from downtown scorching the nylon to the tune of a 40.2% shooting percentage (#31). Per usual, the defense has clamped down on the opposition allowing just 44.9 PPG (#1) and a field-goal percentage of just 33.5% (#3). The Badgers have ventured away from Madison only three times this season beating both Bradley and Brigham Young on neutral courts before falling at North Carolina 60-57 (+7) in their only true road game of the season.
Though Wisconsin-Milwaukee sports an identical 8-2 SU record like tonight’s opponent, the schedule it’s taken on has been less than daunting. In fact, of their 10 games played to date, only seven of them had lines posted and the Panthers went on to cover the closing number in only two of those contests. They enter tonight's battle off a bludgeoning at the hands of Northern Iowa whom they fell to by a 67-51 final count as 7.5 point McLeod Center underdogs. Though they limited the Panthers to just 37 percent shooting from the floor, they turned it over 15 times to Northern Iowa’s six, and allowed the hosts to convert nine of 19 shots from beyond the arc. That came as quite a shock for WI-MIL who has done a solid job defending the 3-ball allowing only a 25 percent conversion rate (#12) heading into tonight's game. With the Badgers offense living and dying by the three, it would be best for head coach Rob Jeter’s kids to rediscover its ability to limit the opposition from long range. The Panthers have won all five of their home games on the year (1-1 ATS).
Tonight's matchup marks the first time that Wisconsin Milwaukee has hosted a ranked nonleague opponent since 1997. The Badgers have dominated this series winning 27 of the 28 all-time meetings with the Panthers and enter having won 18 in a row. Wiscy has won each of the L/5 meetings by nearly 19 PPG with the ‘under’ cashing for total bettors in each of those contests. The Badgers have covered six of their last seven non-conference games, but the Panthers are 5-2 ATS following their last seven SU defeats as well as 7-3 ATS versus the L/10 +.500 opponents they’ve faced.
PICK: WISC/WI-MIL UNDERComment
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NHL Predictions
Hurricanes / Maple Leafs Over 5.5
A coaching change hasn’t done much good for the Hurricanes, who have lost 8 of their last 9 games. The Hurricanes are just 9-18-4 on the season, and just 4-9-2 on the road. Toronto has had struggled of their own recently, losing 4 of their last 5 games. Toronto is 15-11-3 on the season and 6-4-3 at home. On the season the Hurricanes are averaging 2.5 goals per game, but are giving up 3.42 goals against. In their last 5 games the Hurricanes are averaging a high 3.60 goals per game, but are giving up 4.40 goals against. The Maple Leafs are averaging 3 goals per game on the season, but are giving up 3.21 goals against per game (and 3.46 per game at home). Over their last 5 games the Leafs are giving up 3.80 goals against per game. Cam Ward is 9-13-3 for the Hurricanes with a high 3.37 GAA and .896 SV%. Leafs James Reimer is 4-2-2 with a 2.96 GAA and .896 SV%. Take note that the OVER is 4-1 in the Hurricanes last 5 games, and 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games. The OVER is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games as an underdog. The Maple Leafs games have gone OVER the posted total in 6 of their last 8 games overall, and the OVER is 7-2 in their last 9 home games. The OVER is also 8-3 in their last 11 games vs a team with a winning % below .400. These two teams played to a 3-2 score earlier this season in Carolina, but the OVER is 6-2-1 in their last 9 meetings in Toronto. Both teams have been allowing a lot of goals per game, and neither is really struggling scoring. I like the value on the OVER here.
Calgary Flames +135
Calgary has been playing good hockey as of late, winning 3 straight, 4 of their lat 5, and 6 of their last 8 games (with points in 7 of their last 8). Their recent stretch of good hockey has gotten them back into things in the West with their 14-13-2 record. They are 6-8 on the road this season. Nashville on the other hand have won 2 straight, but have won just 4 of their last 11 games. At home Nashville is just 5-5-3 on the year, and they are just 1-4 in their last 5 home games. These two teams have met twice this season, both times in Calgary. In the first meeting the Flames outplayed the Predators and outshot them 33-14 but lost 2-0. In the second meeting the Flames won 1-0. Take note that the Flames have won 5 of these two teams last 6 meetings, and has beaten the Preds in 6 straight meetings in Nashville. If you look at the two starting goalies Kiprusoff has been better than Rinne as of late. Rinne has allowed less than 3 goals against just twice in his last 9 starts. Kiprusoff has won 4 straight starts, and hasn’t lost in regulation in his last 6 starts (which includes a shutout against the Predators on November 29th). Calgary is playing better hockey recently and have had Nashville’s number – including meetings in Nashville. Take the Flames at a generous underdog price tonight.Comment
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WUNDERDOG
NHL 57-45 Last 102 picks +$2090
1 OF 4
Game: Carolina at Toronto (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Carolina +155 (moneyline)
The Carolina Hurricanes have been faltering badly of late, as they have but a single win to show for their last nine games. The good news is that it did come on this road trip, as they handled Edmonton 5-3. We also have a dormant offense is coming to life as they have scored 13 goals in their last three games, and own a win this season vs. this Toronto team in the only other time they have met. The Maple Leafs aren't exactly creating confidence when posted as a big favorite, as they have had their own problems recently, especially the 19 goals allowed over their last five games. Toronto is just 1-4 in those five games, dropping four straight in the role of a favorite. The Hurricanes have played very well here as they are 5-1 in their last six trips across the border to Toronto. Play on Carolina here.Comment
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